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March 20, 2014 March 20, 2014 KOREA Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Shinsegae (004170/Buy/TP: W295,000) KOSPI 1,919.52 -18.16 -0.94 Jan.-Feb. review KOSPI 200 248.68 -2.64 -1.05 KOSDAQ 541.79 -0.46 -0.08 Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 216,319 3,276 KOSPI 200 61,315 2,646 KOSDAQ 362,817 1,838 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,136,823 KOSDAQ 131,728 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 789 1,001 -211 Institutional 797 839 -41 Retail 1,663 1,422 241 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 103 91 12 Institutional 87 98 -11 Retail 1,646 1,644 2 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 505 683 -178 KOSDAQ 20 17 4 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 259 529 88 KOSDAQ 402 519 75 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value KODEX LEVERAGE 10,875 -280 353 Samsung Electronics 1,262,000 -7,000 148 KODEX INVERSE 7,980 100 118 SK Energy 117,500 -7,500 117 OCI 182,000 -11,000 114 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value SM 47,800 -1,950 71 Nowcom 22,100 1,900 68 Keayeast 2,415 135 42 IntroMedic 15,500 950 33 Dae Han New Pharm 7,050 10 32 Note: As of March 20, 2014 This document is a summary of a report prepared by Daewoo Securities Co., Ltd. (“Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Shinsegae (004170 KS) Jan.-Feb. review Retail What’s new: Operating profit down 1% YoY in January-February In February, Shinsegae’s gross merchandise sales (GMS) fell 4.8% YoY to W317.5bn, but Company Update operating profit rose 30.5% YoY to W12.3bn. Department store same-store sales (SSS) March 20, 2014 remained flat YoY in the month. Though sales declined YoY due to the difference in the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday (February 10, 2013 vs. January 31, 2014), operating profit improved sharply, as holiday-related expenses (promotions, gift card (Maintain) Buy issuance, etc.) were booked in January this year. From January to February, GMS declined 3.9% YoY to W657.4bn, wh ile operating profit Target Price (12M, W) 295,000 fell 1.2% YoY to W26bn. The weak performance was in large part due to the delayed normalization of SSG.com, an integrated online shopping mall for Shinsegae Group Share Price (03/19/14, W) 225,000 retailers (including Shinsegae Mall). Expected Return 31% SSG.com resumed normal operations after mid-February, later than originally anticipated, causing customer defections and additional costs. As a result, Shinsegae Mall’s revenue slumped 39.5% YoY from January to February and losses expanded from OP (14F, Wbn) 337 W3.8bn in 2013 to W5.6bn in 2014. We expect the online business to weigh on the Consensus OP (14F, Wbn) 331 company’s earnings for some time. Earnings are unlikely to sharply recover in March EPS Growth (13F, %) -2.5 with consumer spending still weak and Shinsegae Mall likely to remain under pressure. Market EPS Growth (13F, %) 5.1 Catalysts P/E (13F, x) 15.8 Market P/E (13F, x) 12.3 In 2014, we expect profitability to c ontinue to improve thanks to higher cost efficiency KOSPI 1,937.68 and lower depreciation expenses. Market Cap (Wbn) 2,215 We project depreciation expenses to start decreasing from 2Q. Depreciation expenses Shares Outstanding (mn) 10 for the Centum City and Yeoungdeungpo branches will likely decrease by W17bn, while Free Float (%) 72.8 th e expected lease renewals of the Gangnam and Centum City stores should drive up Foreign Ownership (%) 51.8 depreciation by W7bn. Indeed , annual depreciation expenses should decline by around Beta (12M) 0.93 W10bn in 2014. The company made aggressive cost-cutting efforts, including SG&A 52-Week Low 198,500 reductions, amid sluggish consumption in 2013. In the event of a recovery in 52-Week High 269,000 consumption, these cost-cutting efforts, along with falling depreciation expenses, will (%)(%)(%) 1M1M1M 6M6M6M 12M12M12M likely lead to a marked improvement in profitability. Absolute 0.7 -1.3 -1.1 Maintain Buy and TP of W295,000 Relative 0.9 2.1 1.0 We retain Buy on Shinsegae with a target price of W295,000. Although there will be no 130 Shinsegae KOSPI momentum from the opening of new stores until 2015, the company will likely exhibit 120 higher profitability improvement than its competitors once private consumption picks 110 up, backed by its steady cost-saving efforts . We see muted downside risks given the 100 expected fall in depreciation expenses from 2Q. However, upside momentum should 90 also remain limited due to sluggish consumption and the delayed recovery of Shinsegae 80 Mall. 3.13 7.13 11.13 3.14 Daewoo Securities CCo.,o., Ltd. FY (Dec.) 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13 12/14F 12/15F Revenue (Wbn) 1,868 2,185 2,296 2,442 2,518 2,758 [Retail] OP (Wbn) 237 254 250 306 337 370 Young Ryu OP margin (%) 12.7 11.6 10.9 12.5 13.4 13.4 +822-768-4138 NP (Wbn) 1,087 3,502 162 158 169 202 [email protected] EPS (W) 28,829 182,729 16,415 16,010 17,155 20,533 ROE (%) 18.6 75.7 7.7 6.8 6.8 7.6 P/E (x) 10.5 1.3 13.3 15.8 13.1 11.0 P/B (x) 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 Notes: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including t he U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Key Universe Valuations March 20, 2014 ※All data as of close March 19, 2014, unless otherwise noted. 14F Earnings growth Mkt Cap Price P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%) Ticker Company Div Yield OP EPS (Wbn) (W) (%) 14F 15F 14F 15F 14F 15F 14F 15F 14F 15F 005930 Samsung Electronics 185,892 1,262,000 1.4 -2.1 6.2 -1.7 6.1 7.3 6.9 1.2 1.0 18.5 16.8 005380 Hyundai Motor 50,553 229,500 0.9 3.7 2.9 0.5 4.1 7.6 7.3 1.1 0.9 15.4 13.9 012330 Hyundai Mobis 29,106 299,000 0.7 7.7 10.2 10.4 7.3 7.7 7.2 1.2 1.1 17.2 15.8 035420 NAVER 26,865 815,000 0.1 79.0 24.6 108.5 23.7 39.3 31.7 11.2 8.7 41.8 40.9 000660 SK Hynix 26,242 36,950 32.1 0.5 38.2 -3.4 6.6 6.8 1.5 1.3 26.3 20.2 005490 POSCO 25,066 287,500 2.8 34.2 25.9 60.9 35.8 11.3 8.3 0.6 0.5 5.2 6.8 015760 KEPCO 24,202 37,700 280.7 21.5 3070.8 55.3 10.8 6.9 0.5 0.4 4.4 6.5 000270 Kia Motors 23,065 56,900 1.4 -4.9 8.9 -6.2 11.4 6.4 5.8 1.0 0.8 16.4 15.7 055550 Shinhan Financial Group 20,770 43,800 - - - - 0.0 0.0 032830 Samsung Life 19,720 98,600 - - - - 0.0 0.0 017670 SK Telecom 17,280 214,000 4.4 14.6 6.5 17.3 6.5 9.5 9.0 1.4 1.3 13.0 12.8 051910 LG Chem 15,806 238,500 1.7 9.8 38.8 15.9 39.8 12.0 8.6 1.4 1.2 12.0 15.0 009540 Hyundai Heavy 15,276 201,000 1.2 19.3 64.1 53.6 90.8 20.1 10.5 0.8 0.7 4.3 7.8 105560 KB Financial Group 13,909 36,000 - - - - 0.0 0.0 086790 Hana Financial Group 11,132 38,400 - - - - 0.0 0.0 096770 SK Innovation 10,865 117,500 2.7 32.1 32.9 66.4 34.9 8.6 6.4 0.6 0.6 7.8 9.8 033780 KT&G 10,846 79,000 4.1 8.0 2.6 38.9 4.6 13.7 13.1 1.8 1.7 14.5 14.1 000810 Samsung F&M 10,612 224,000 - - - - 0.0 0.0 066570 LG Electronics 10,261 62,700 0.6 31.2 43.3 329.1 56.8 15.0 9.5 1.0 1.0 6.3 9.4 023530 Lotte Shopping 9,904 314,500 0.5 9.4 14.1 25.7 16.1 9.5 8.2 0.6 0.6 6.5 7.0 003550 LG Corp.
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