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Vietjet Aviation Joint Stock Company (VJC: HOSE)

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Vietjet Aviation Joint Stock Company (VJC: HOSE) SSI – RESEARCH INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH & INVESTMENT ADVISORY VietJet Aviation Joint Stock Company (VJC: HOSE) Non-Rating Current price: VND 195,700 Kim Nguyen [email protected] In play comes off smoother +84-28 3824 2897 ext. 2140 4Q 2017 results: In 4Q 2017, VJC posted a net revenue and net profit of VND 5.675 tn (+45.6% YoY). 4Q 2017 net profit recorded VND 91.3bn, declining by 68% YoY. 20 April 2018 INDUSTRIALS– VIETNAM 2017 business review: Regarding the parent company’s results, in 2017, VJC posted a net revenue and net profit of VND 22.645 tn (+42.6% YoY) and VND 1.817 tn (+28% YoY) respectively, showing another impressive year in its core aviation business. The airline’s Key figures Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) was up by 42% YoY in 2017, reaching 23.4 mn seats/km, Market cap (USD mn) 4,140 while revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) also grew by 42% YoY, reaching 20.6 mn Market cap (VND bn) 94,286 passengers/km. Overall passenger yield recorded $0.0369 US cents in 2017, slightly declining Outstanding shares (mn) 451 by -1.7% YoY. On a consolidated results basis, VJC recorded a 2017 net revenue of VND 52W high/low (VND 1,000) 213.4/85.7 42.30 tn (+54% YoY), and a net profit attributable to shareholders of VND 5.074 tn (+103% Average 3M volume (share) 973,469 YoY). The airlines successfully completed 101% and 149% of its 2017 revenue and profit Average 3M value (USD mn) 7.67 targets. Average 3M value (VND bn) 174.65 Foreign ownership (%) 45.50 According to ACV and our collected data, VJC domestic market share stabilized in 2017 at State ownership (%) 0 41%(vs. a 40.8% market share in 2016), whereas Vietnam Airlines (HVN: UPCOM), including Management ownership (%) N.A. subsidiaries Jetstar Pacific and VASCO, held a 59% market share last year. VJC Price & Trading Volume Earnings estimates: For 2018, We forecast VJC 2018 core net revenue to achieve VND 29.428 tn (+30% YoY). Core net income may reach VND 3.014 tn (+66% YoY), leading to a core EPS of VND 6,683 (+66%YoY) based a tax rate of 10%. Including SLB profit, 2018 consolidated revenue and net profit will achieve VND 48.325 tn (+15% YoY) and VND 5.179 tn (+2% YoY). EPS will be VND 11,481 (+2% YoY). For 2019, we expect VJC 2019 core net revenue to achieve VND 34,222 tn (+16% YoY). Net income of core business might reach VND 3.548 tn (+17.7% YoY), assuming a tax rate of 20%. According to the company plan, VJC may record 17 aircraft under SLB, and we expect Source: Bloomberg SLB profit to record VND 2.15 tn in PBT (-7% YoY). As a result, consolidated revenue and net Company Snapshot profit are expected to reach VND 54.341 tn (+12.4% YoY) and VND 5.830 tn (+12.5% YoY). VJC is a privately-owned Low Cost Carrier (LCC) airline in Vietnam. It was established on 23rd July 2007, and 2019 EPS may reach VND 12,910 (+12.5% YoY). commenced the first commercial flight on 24th December 2011 with the Ho Chi Minh City - Hanoi route. Total Valuation and investment view: At the current price of VND 195,700/share, VJC is trading at passengers served by VJC reached 14.05 mn pax in 2016 after 4 years of operation. As of 31 Dec 2016, VJC 2018 and 2019 EV/EBITDAR metrics of 9x and 7x respectively. We believe that investors will operates a fleet of 41 aircraft, in which 19 aircraft are appreciate the continued climb of a core EPS growth of 42% and 18% YoY in 2018 and 2019, funded by SLB and 1 aircraft is owned by the company via financial lease. Other aircraft include 15 dry leases and respectively. VJC is one of the fastest growing airlines compared with peers in term of EPS 6 wet leases. growth in 2018 and 2019. Besides, VJC is benefiting from lower CASK ex-fuel than regional VJC achieved a domestic market share of 40.8% as of 31 Dec 2016, an increase from 37.1% as of 31 Dec 2015, peers. according to a report by the Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam (CAAV) SSI.COM.VN Visit SSI Research on Bloomberg at SSIV<GO> Page 1 SSI – RESEARCH INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH & INVESTMENT ADVISORY 4Q 2017 results: impressive topline growth but modest profit We use the parent company’s 2017 results for comparison, which purely reflects the performance of the core aviation business. In 4Q 2017, VJC posted a net revenue and net profit of VND 5.675 tn (+45.6% YoY) and VND 91.3 bn (-68.2% YoY) respectively. Although the increase in revenue was encouraging indicator as VJC accelerated its international expansion, the GPM in the 4th quarter nevertheless declined to 8.5% from 12.2% in 4Q 2016 due to a significant maintenance expense of VND 198 bn in 4Q 2017 (vs. that of only VND 15 bn in 4Q 2016). VJC’s 4Q 2017 net profit recorded VND 91.3bn, declining by 68% YoY. In fact, 4Q 2017 earnings significantly improved YoY thanks to enhanced topline because 4Q 2016 PBT would have recorded a loss of VND -68 bn in 4Q 2016 if we were to exclude financial income in the quarter. In 4Q 2016, VJC recorded financial income of VND 436 bn from dividends received from its subsidiary, Vietjet Air IVB No.1 Ltd (received every 2 years based on investment law of British Virgin Island) meanwhile 4Q 2017 did not have such income event. Such an operating loss in 4Q 2016 is explained by the fact that the 4th quarter of the year is the slowest season for airlines in general, in which regional airlines normally record losses or insignificant profit for the quarter due to a lower load factor in November and December, and higher expenses further compound the issue of profitability during this period. Regardless of the above, VJC on a respective basis did successfully complete 101% and 149% of its 2017 revenue and profit targets. Margin (bn VND) 4Q17 4Q16 YoY 3Q17 QoQ % annual target completed 4Q17 4Q16 3Q17 2017 Net sales 5,674.9 3,897.7 45.6% 6,142.0 -7.6% 101% Gross profit 479.8 475.1 1.0% 1,413.7 -66.1% 8.5% 12.2% 23.0% 15.9% Operating profit 147.2 -20 n.a 1,131.6 -87.0% 2.6% -0.5% 18.4% 10.9% EBIT 168.7 422.2 -60.0% 1,150.8 -85.3% 3.0% 10.8% 18.7% 11.2% EBITDA 238.7 451.0 -47.1% 1,148.8 -79.2% 4.2% 11.6% 18.7% 11.7% Pretax profit 106.1 367.7 -71.2% 1,093.8 -90.3% 1.9% 9.4% 17.8% 10.2% Net income 91.3 287.4 -68.2% 984.3 -90.7% 149% 1.6% 7.4% 16.0% 8% NI attributable to shareholders 91.3 287.4 -68.2% 984.3 -90.7% 1.6% 7.4% 16.0% 8% Source: VJC 2017 business review: Increased capacity, but lower international passenger yield Regarding the parent company’s results, in 2017, VJC posted a net revenue and net profit of VND 22.645 tn (+42.6% YoY) and VND 1.817 tn (+28% YoY) respectively, showing another impressive year in its core aviation business. International passenger transportation revenue growth of 202% YoY (~11% of total revenue), and ancillary revenue growth of 54% YoY (~24% of total revenue) acted as key growth drivers to total revenue. Additionally, the GPM and net profit margin was also strongly supported by an improved domestic passenger yield, as well as an increased ancillary revenue per pax. Furthermore, the RASK-CASK spread also expanded by 23% YoY, aided by strong topline growth which help to improve efficiency. SSI.COM.VN Visit SSI Research on Bloomberg at SSIV<GO> Page 2 SSI – RESEARCH INSTITUTIONAL RESEARCH & INVESTMENT ADVISORY VJC: 2017 parent company business results VND bn 2017 YoY growth Revenue 22,644 42.6% Passenger transportation 16,956 39% Ancillary revenue 5,471 55% Net profit 1,817 28% Source: VJC In 2017, VJC added 17 new aircraft, increasing its total number of aircraft from 40 aircraft in 2016 to 51 as of 2017, executing a 27% YoY expansion in total plane count. The airline launched 22 additional routes for a total of 82 routes in 2017 from only 60 routes by the end of 2016, translating to a growth rate of 36.7% YoY. The airline however added only 1 domestic route in 2017 from its 37 routes in 2016; hence virtually all route growth was international in composition. Due to slow capacity expansion in the domestic market exacerbated from a persistent bottleneck at Tan Son Nhat International Airport, VJC began to boost its international expansion at an accelerated pace last year, and almost doubled its number of international routes as of 2017. It opened 21 additional routes, bringing the total number of international routes to 44 by the end of 2017. As such, VJC’s Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) was up by 42% YoY in 2017, reaching 23.4 mn seats/km, while revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) also grew by 42% YoY, reaching 20.6 mn passengers/km. VJC overall passenger yield recorded $0.0369 US cents in 2017, slightly declining by -1.7% YoY. This was due to a continued decline in international passenger yields (-30% YoY) amid aggressive fare promotions for gaining market share in the international market.
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