DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIE-MISE EN LECTURE PUBLIQUE MEMORANDUM FORs MEMORANDUM Military Representatives, for their information, and to the major major the to and information, their for Representatives, Military NATO Commands for their their for Commands NATO reaction of in the event of East/West hostilities in in hostilities East/West of event the in ofYugoslavia reaction 1952, m g s I CnrlNK N Control S M -1455-52 Standin FOR THE STANDING GROUPS STANDING THE FOR SUBJECT SUBJECT î I am Instructed by the Standing Group to forward to the to forward to Group Standing the by Instructed am I nmm m rn l W g REGRADED NATO UNCLASSIFIE NATO REGRADED e t a D ^ A C Q O a X y B Per AuthorityIMSM- Per Group Groupe Per Groupe Group COMITE MILITAIRE DE L'ATLANTIQUE NORD NORD L'ATLANTIQUE DE MILITAIRE COMITE NORTH NORTH The Memb The East/West conflict, and her capabilities capabilities her and conflict, East/West Channel Commander-in-Chief Atlantic Commander Allied Supreme Supreme Alli Supreme in in an of case in ofYugoslavia Position Committee Committee 1952 F P LI B PU R FO D E V O R P P A APPROVED FOR PUBLIC D PUBLIC FOR APPROVED A g Per By ERDD ______DEGRADED TLANTIC TLANTIC uidance, the enclosed estimate of the of estimate enclosed the uidance, ______e rs of the Military Representatives Representatives Military the of rs 4 31-99 1 i e /. S r .Ü ./ r $ 2 d Com d - M E. B./W. CARDIFF CARDIFF B./W. E. 1 Secretary ooe, Briti Colonel, I - L m ITARY COMMITTEE COMMITTEE ITARY c ander Europe Europe ander ___ ÖI D

s Date— I SCLOSURE B l OSURE-' _ SECRET ______;jViO s h Army Army h C OPY NO. OPY m g s 24 June 1952 June 24 SECRfl - BftfO 1455-52 1455-52 m anent S£Cf? • ■■ ■`\ i Q /a V O DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIE-MISE EN LECTURE PUBLIQUE event of East-West hostilities in 1952. in hostilities East-West of event NOT vigorously and will have available 32 divisions and may be expected expected be may and divisions 32 available have will and vigorously the in slavia ocs oteNrhadSuh TeYgsa ocswl e asbe will forces Yugoslav The South. and North the to forces country'the within defense military organized an for prepare days. 30 / M m to back fight will Yugoslavia Yugoslavia, on attack an includes including the establishment of contact on the flanks of the NATO NATO the of flanks the on contact of establishment the including shown in paragraph 4 above. 4 paragraph in shown o include an territory, Yugoslavia will will Yugoslavia territory, Yugoslavia of invasion an include i emn n uti, n reeadTre i hae and! Thrace, via Turkey and Greece and , and via o concurr no 2. Include in the above estimate the capabilities of of capabilities the estimate above the in Include 2. b T 1. 4. In a Soviet-Satellite attack on Western Europe which which Europe on Western attack a Soviet-Satellite In 4. Appendix. See 3. bilise 12-13 additional additional 12-13 bilise 5. In a Soviet-Satellite attack on Western Europe which does which Europe Western on attack aSoviet-Satellite In 5. . Yugoslav territory is Invaded by Satellite forces with forces Satellite by isInvaded territory Yugoslav a. - If Soviet and Satellite f - Satellite and IfSoviet a. o OIINO UOLVA NCS FA ATWS -410 EAST-WEST OFAN INCASE YUGOSLAVIA OF POSITION prepare an estimate on the reaction of Yugoslavia in the in Yugoslavia of reaction the on estimate an prepare e CONFLICT AND H AND CONFLICT e vent of the foregoing actions. foregoing the of vent 1 Ygsai s nae, or invaded, is Yugoslavia (1) (2) Yugoslavia's territory is not invaded. not is territory Yugoslavia's (2) tmltr cini uoe initially. Surope in action military nt APPROVED FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE PUBLIC FOR APPROVED THE PROBLEM THE CONCLU E E DISCUSS DISCUSS ION d AAIIIS N15 i£CRET 1952 IN CAPABILITIES R NCLOSURE ivisions from cadres by by cadres from ivisions S IONS o rces attack Western Europe Western attack rces M / M 12 - 12 Yu g o ~ DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIE-MISE EN LECTURE PUBLIQUE with no concurrent military action in Europe, Yugoslavia will Yugoslavia Europe, in action military concurrent no with resist invasion with her own forces as shown in paragraph paragraph in shown as forces own her with invasion resist aluo h Uie ain frpop support. prompt for Nations United the upon call SGM-1455-52 Vardar Valley and following generally the /Morava Rivers Rivers Sava/Morava the generally following and Valley Vardar 6. If Yugoslav territory is invaded by Satellite forces Satellite by invaded is territory Yugoslav If 6. positions, the Yugoslavs could, if adequate adequate if could, Yugoslavs the positions, military defense extending from the Ljubljana area to the to area Ljubljana the from extending defense military defensive forward these from back forced When theDanube. of at support, logistical Soviet with could, Satellites adjacent support were continued, maintain an organized conventional conventional organized an maintain continued, were support east and north plains the from Army Yugoslav the drive least is It a. 7. even in the absence of outside assistance, A minimum l minimum A assistance, outside of absence the in even warfare* guerrilla organized conduct could addition in and effectiveness of this guerrilla resistance. guerrilla this of effectiveness upr rmte usd ol sgiiatyices the increase significantly would outside the from support m m m b. Guerrilla warfare would almost certainly continue certainly almost would warfare Guerrilla b. 1 Ü K e A P P R O V E D FO R PU B LIC D LIC B PU R FO D E V O R P P A APPROVED FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE PUBLIC FOR APPROVED stimated that during 1952 the forces of the of forces the 1952 during that stimated <&■ - 3 I OS E R SU LO C S W Enclosure est e rn logistical logistical rn 4, o

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DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIE-MISE EN LECTURE PUBLIQUE . GEBERAL I. m an attempt at self-preservation rather than any basic change in poli­ in change basic any than rather self-preservation at attempt an was signed. This agreement authorized authorized agreement This signed. was ber, power, hold to continue and tical philosophy, and reflects the appreciation of the principal Yugo­ principal the of appreciation the reflects and philosophy, tical mainly represents trend This governments. Western with relations its her abortive experience with Soviet observers, Soviet with experience abortive her s Yugoslavia to fall victim to ag to victim fall to Yugoslavia tion with the West,., These relations reached a new high point in in Novem­ point high anew reached West,.,the with relations tion These Yugoslavia, there is no doubt but that Yugoslavs would vigorously re vigorously would that Yugoslavs but doubt no is there Yugoslavia, invaded. if fight would theYugoslavs that said repeatedly has Tito the attitude of the Great Powers influenced by the danger of allowing allowing of danger the by influenced Powers Great the of attitude the theUSS with breach the heal cannot they that leaders slavCommunist about admitting foreign observers on any basis, especailly following following especailly basis, any on observers foreign admitting about sensitive still country a by concession cooperative significant a the United Nations in 1951 has placed on record the many provocative provocative themany record on placed has 1951 in Nations theUnited m g s If a Soviet-Sat a If Yugoslavia, against Satellites the of actions success in appealing for United Nation’s assistance would depend on depend would assistance Nation’s United for appealing in success sist the invasion. Such action would have the full support of the of support full the have would action Such invasion. the sist u ake the observations required by the pr the by required observations the ake bservient to Moscow, has steadily, although cautiously, improved improved cautiously, although steadily, has to Moscow, bservient ” 1 2, The yea The 2, 3, Ih the event of a Satellite attack upon her, Yugoslavia's Yugoslavia's her, upon attack Satellite a of event the Ih 3, 4, If Yugoslavia is Invaded is If Yugoslavia 4, i 1951 Th , 455-52 , when a bilateral agreement for military aid to Yugoslavia Yugoslavia to aid military for agreement bilateral a , when e Tito regime in Yu in regime Tito O T ® » 5 l f f l i K r e 1951 saw definite progress towards Yugoslav coopera­ Yugoslav towards progress definite saw 1951 llite attack in Western Europe included an attack o attack an included Europe in Western attack llite APPROVED FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE PUBLIC FOR APPROVED A P P R O V E D FO R PU B LIC D LIC B PU R FO D E V O R P P A g DISCUSSION oslavia, the only Communist regime not not regime Communist only the oslavia, APPENDIX g ression. The White Book submitted to submitted Book White The ression. . nnmru ulc statements, public numerous In - 4 - Appe - A eia iiayosres to observers military merican o visions of MDAP. This was This of MDAP. visions I CL URE R SU LO SC ,i0 SEC .iT n dix R O ET n R

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DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIE-MISE EN LECTURE PUBLIQUE within the country, the within majority of the Yugoslav people. In addition, the Yugoslavs Yugoslavs the Inaddition, people. Yugoslav the of majority hand. The defense, by Yugoslav fo Yugoslav by defense, The hand. expected to wage towage expected Yugoslav Army would defend th defend would Army Yugoslav and frontier, her on points all at defend initially to expected be employm the by to M / 30 days. While insurin While days. 30 / M to 12 / M by cadres from divisions additional 12-13 tomobilize expected betog otnos rn ol eetbihd I diin the Inaddition, established. be would front continuous though ible along positions prepared to withdraw gradually actions, delaying by ot. uolvamyb xetdt rpr o tedfne f the of defense the for prepare to expected be may Yugoslavia South. prepa to expected be may 5, in para shown forces the with pr will area, Austria-n thewestern of defense Allied general the of at equipment the of suitability and quantity the by and forces ofher availability the by permitted extent maximum the to Valley theVardar flex­ a where Yugoslavia, central in mass mountain the of fringe the ment of contact contact of ment via support logistical Allied for justification a also but west", the ass th passes establish­ the including Yugoslavia within defense military organized Yugoslavia, Bloc, Soviet the and theWest between war general a In LOC. Leghorn the no Concu no extent permitted by the availability of her forces and by the quan­ the by and forces her of availability the by permitted extent SGM-1455 and 5 inpara shown forces the with invasion resist will Yugoslavia in Europe, action military concurrent no with forces Satellite by tity and quality of the equipment at hand. at equipment the of quality and tity aluo h ntdNtos o rmt support. prompt for Nations United the upon call 5. Yugoslavia will have 32 divisions available and may be may and available divisions 32 have will Yugoslavia 5. 6 7. If Yugoslav Ter IfYugoslav 7. . If Yugoslavia is not Invaded. If Yugoslavia is not not is attached IfYugoslavia Invaded. isnot IfYugoslavia r -52 r rent Military Action in Europe. If Yugoslavia Is invaded invaded Is IfYugoslavia in Europe. Action Military rent ough the Ljubljana Gap and Vardar Valley to the maximum maximum the to Valley and Vardar Gap Ljubljana the ough m m o e vide the Yugoslav nation not only with a "window to "window a with only not nation Yugoslav the vide nt of part of her forces in this role Yugoslavia may may Yugoslavia role this in forces ofher part of nt o g n the flanks of the NATO forces to the North and and North the to forces NATO the of flanks the n uerrilla operations throughout any occupied are^Kf^ occupied any throughout operations uerrilla gjyÉÂ&a A P P R O V E D FO R PU BLIC D BLIC PU R FO D E V O R P P A PPke n iD i PiiDi cnp APPPPkwen mi r ito e r passes through the Ljubljana Gap and Gap Ljubljana the through passes g y is Invaded by Satellite Forces with with Forces Satellite by Invaded is y the internal security of the country country the of security internal the - 5 - 5 - r ces, of the Ljubljana Gap, as part as Gap, Ljubljana the ofces, r niQi-M nQiiDc I CL URE SU LO SC Appendix o tes rtheast r o an for e m ay be ay DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIE-MISE EN LECTURE PUBLIQUE S eiet n lmtd evcs f supply. of services limited and regiment *A Yug *A I MILITARY II. QM- 1455-52 weakened to some extent by politic by extent some to weakened material the Yugoslav would, in the event of an attack, an of event the in would, Navy Yugoslav the material ol b aalbe fncsayfrdrc upr f h ar the of support direct for necessary if available be would River, There Is a Marine Corps some 15,000 strong 15,000 some Corps Marine a Is There River, Danube n aNvlDvso fte NJ f oe ,0 e. Although men. 6,000 some of KNOJ the of Division Naval a and etoes 2 boee, umrns Ioslt) 6 Mine­ 6 (Iobsolete), 2 (2 obsolete), ihnYgsai n eod h uolvfotes ‘ frontiers. Yugoslav the beyond and Yugoslavia within Boats, and a small flotilla of Patrol Craft on the on Craft Patrol of flotilla small a and Boats, Torpedo make it difficu it make of German aircraft; the serviceability is very low by Western by low very is serviceability the aircraft; German proportion of small a with construction and design II War World aes anme o osa iewees sm 5 Motor 35 some , Coastal of number a layers, tnad* ako oeneupet n saeprs would parts spare and equipment modern of Lack standards* supp the for optne f h YAF. the of competence force air tactical a primarily is YAF The units. operational of air defense. As such it such As defense. air of iiin adbiae. ` brigades. and divisions limited offensive missions outside the border of Yugoslavia. of border the outside missions offensive limited ar aircraft 400 Some men. 12,000 approximately into organized KNOJ) Naval (including KNOJ the of 60,000 by members supplemented is it and high, is standards, Balkan 325,000 325,000 1,0 aa Ifnrmnad ,0 osa rilrmn which Artillerymen) Coastal 5,000 and Infantrymen Naval (10,000 by ability, fighting Its 1952. during significantly increase are It is doubtful whether a sound air defense is within the within is defense air sound a whether doubtful is It 1. Yugoslav Ar Yugoslav 1. o slavian division consists of 3 infantry regiments, 1 artillery 1 regiments, infantry 3 of consists division slavian m * i ocs TeYgsa i oc (A) has (YAF) Force Air Yugoslav The Forces, Air k* caie. h sz o ti Am i nt xetd to expected not is Army this of size The echanized. a. Army, The Yugoslav Army now consists of 300,000 - 300,000 of consists now Army Yugoslav The Army, a. m m m I » m e ay Te uolvNv icue 6-7Coastal 7 - 6 includes Navy Yugoslav The Navy. n organized into into organized n o rt of the ground forces, with a secondary role secondary a with forces, ground the of rt l tf m ed Forces ed APPROVED FOR PUBLI FOR APPROVED APPROVED o te A t copihis isos both missions, its accomplish to YAF the r M ost of the aircraft are of Soviet of are aircraft the of ost 32 m r gt e r be ight e gular divisions,* of which 2 which of divisions,* gular s and hampered by inadequate by hampered and e quired to carry out carry to quired e sind to assigned Appendix

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DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIE-MISE EN LECTURE PUBLIQUE SGM-14 SGM-14 5 5- have grown in size from 346,000 men organized into 28 divisions 28 into organized men 346,000 from size in grown have eevs Tandadprilytand 1 trained) partially and (Trained Reserves iiin, fwih r amrdad2 ehnzd Thes mechanized. 2 and armored are 5 which of divisions, increase throughout the period of this estimate. The Kremlin is Kremlin The estimate. this of period the throughout increase armed forces is at prese at is forces armed ih ireywt te foll the with fiercely fight ar nJnay15, n i i estimat is it and 1950, January in increas be will capabilities YAF th by used now materiel the of Untrained Reserves Untrained 2. Satellite Armed Forces Armed Satellite 2. ocs ol o, uig 92 dfn te li ra o the of areas plain the defend 1952, during not, could Yugoslav the forces arrived, have may as equipment new such improved. with be Even must work staff and operation; and maintenance d for equipped. fully and organized be will men expected before the the before expected No equipment. Kingdom United and States United of delivery n tersre teghi idctd nte olwn table: following the in indicated is strength reserve the and country situated generally north and east of Belgrade. of east and north generally situated country be delivered to the units? the troops must be trained in its in trained be must troops the units? the to delivered be limited present The units. supporting organized newly supply significant increase of Yugoslav Army capabilities can be can capabilities Army Yugoslav of increase significant e now estimated at 640,00Q men, 640,00Q at estimated now . oiiain Te oiiaincpct o the for capacity mobilization The Mobilization. d. e o Yugoslaviaj for a. The armies of Albania, Hungary, Rumania, and Bulgaria and Rumania, Hungary, Albania, of armies The a. m m m livery under the military aid agre aid military the under livery The above mobilization table do table mobilization above The 410,000 oitc. ntdSae mltr qimn scheduled equipment military States United logistics. M-Day M-Day (3) (2) Neutralizing the Albanian coast Albanian the Neutralizing (2) supplies sea-borne to Adriatic the open Keeping (1) M ine Speed of M of Speed APPROVED FOR PDBLIC DISCLOSURE PDBLIC FOR APPROVED APPROVED FOR PUBLIC FOR APPROVED l aying and min and aying e nd of 1952, because the new equipment must equipment new the because 1952, of nd n t limited to about about to limited t ob M/30 o 760,000 wing main functions: main wing ilisati e Yugoslav Arzsed Forces and will and Arzsed Forces Yugoslav Days e d d by the the end by of 1952 e e o sweeping on th on sweeping te ilcniu to continue will they d rganized into about 40 about into rganized o n e etwl elc some replace will ment e s not imply that the that imply not s 1 , 0,0 - 1,500,000 - 000,000 , 000,000 5 and e 1, Yaf Danube, 160,000 Days 180 men, ndix

e

960,000

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NATO

DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIE-MISE EN LECTURE PUBLIQUE Morava Rivers as long as adequate West adequate as long as Rivers Morava relation to those of the neighborin the of those to relation SGM generally north and east of the Da the of east and north generally an organized conventional military defense extending from the Ljubl­ the from extending defense military conventional organized an logistic Soviet with Satellites, adjacent the from force maximum the c Sava/ the generally following and Valley Vardar the to area jana support, could at least drive the Yugoslav forces from the plain area plain the from forces Yugoslav the drive least at could support, 19?2 during that estimated is It years. two past the during steadily o ntinued. In addition, the Yugoslav forces could conduct effective conduct could forces Yugoslav the addition, In ntinued. -l455-5f\[ reorganizi form to the Soviet pattern. The Bulgarian Bulgarian The pattern. Soviet the to form h otlyl n fiin. t formati Its efficient. and loyal most the 6Stlie iiin r big qipdwt oitmtrer^/|9 | materielr?^ / Soviet with equipped being are divisions Satellite 16 eev sokie ae vial, n oaei g is morale and available, are stockpiles reserve ocs poigYgsai ol e iie o h existing the to limited be would Yugoslavia opposing forces emblzdi h aeltsajcn oYgsai y h end the by Yugoslavia to adjacent Satellites the in mobilized be divisions plus 12 additional well-equipped divisions which could which divisions well-equipped additional 12 plus divisions mated to have a total strength of more than than more of strength total a have to mated Albania, to regard with action Yugoslavia's b could of piston-engined aircraft of of aircraft piston-engined which esti­ now 19!?1, are May and since size in doubled than more have affect would considerations military than rather paper, this of Yugo­ in campaign the on effect military little that have such would are they forces Albanian the of efficiency and size the and equipment. Soviet adequate of ceipt further increased by the replacement of of replacement the by increased further re­ upon contingent and intensified, were programs training sent and by increase in the number of jet fighters, jet of number the in increase by and scope the outside are which considerations, Political slavia, 3* 1952 b. It is therefore estimated that neighboring Satellite neighboring that estimated therefore is It b. uolvCpblte. uolvasmltr cpble, in capabilies, military Yugoslavia’s Capabilities. Yugoslav d. The Air Forces of the Satellites adjacent to Yugoslavia to adjacent Satellites the of Forces Air The d. 25 e . An additional number of divisions, not to exceed 20, exceed to not divisions, of number additional An . mobilized in the adjacent Satellites provided the pre­ the provided Satellites adjacent the in mobilized Albania is cut off from logistical support from the USSR the from support logistical from off cut is Albania are jet fight jet are n te ht th that the g APPROVED FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE PUBLIC FOR APPROVED e G5 rs. Their capability will probably be probably will capability Their rs. more n ube. The Yugoslavs could maintain could Yugoslavs The ube. g recent design and manufacture and design recent Stlie, ae decreased have Satellites, e rn Logistical support were support Logistical rn m any older aircraft by aircraft older any o A s equivale ns, m s appare is rmy 6 O icat of aircraft, OO o d W od, e il con­ will y Appendix n to t n l ■ tly

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DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIE-MISE EN LECTURE PUBLIQUE r° $ s minimum of logistic support by these forces from the outside w outside the from forces these by support logistic of area. minimum mountainous the in being strongholds principle the Yu the Yu in resistance guerrilla uril afr ol continu would warfare guerrilla ral nrae h efciees n uain f tjieirduration^ of and resistance. effectiveness the increase greatly g sa ees b cnetoa iiaymtos es, organized cease, methods military conventional by defense oslav J J Q 9 M APPROVED FOR PUBLIC DISCLO PUBLIC FOR APPROVED g oslavia for an extended period. Should Should period. extended an for oslavia Kl e over most of the country, with the with country, the of most over S URE R eceipt of a of eceipt o uld mm*®?'-

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