Declassified-Public Disclosure Imsm-0431-99 Declassifie-Mise En Lecture Publique

rn m m APPROVED FOR PUBLI c ÖIs B l OSURE-' C OPY NO. • ■■ ■`\ i Q S£Cf? NORTH ATLANTIC M IL ITARY COMMITTEE COMITE MILITAIRE DE L'ATLANTIQUE NORD Standing Group Groupe Perm anent REGRADED NATO UNCLASSIFIED s g m -1455-52 Per Authority IMSM- 431-99 24 June 1952 By XaOQCA^Date 2 $ r ./ .Ü r S MEMORANDUM FORs The Members of the Military Representatives Committee Supreme Allied Comm ander Europe Supreme Allied Commander Atlantic Commander-in-Chief Channel SUBJECT î Position of Yugoslavia in case of an East/West conflict, and her capabilities in 1952 I am Instructed by the Standing Group to forward to the Military Representatives, for their information, and to the major NATO Commands for their guidance, the enclosed estimate of the reaction of Yugoslavia in the event of East/West hostilities in 1952, V /a FOR THE STANDING GROUPS O E. B./W. CARDIFF Colonel, British Army Secretary ;jViO SECRET DEGRADED ___________________ _ __________ DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIE-MISE EN LECTURE PUBLIQUE Per By ______ i 1___ Date— IMS Control NK BftfO SECRfl s g m -1455-52 - 1 - W l APPROVED FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE E NCLOSURE POSITION OF YUGOSLAVIA IN CASE OF AN EAST-WEST -410 CONFLICT AND HER CAPABILITIES IN 1952 i£CRET THE PROBLEM 1. To prepare an estimate on the reaction of Yugoslavia in the event of East-West hostilities in 1952. a. - If Soviet and Satellite forces attack Western Europe via Germany and Austria, and Greece and Turkey via Thrace, and! (1) Yugoslavia is invaded, or (2) Yugoslavia's territory is not invaded. b . Yugoslav territory is Invaded by Satellite forces with no concurrent military action in Surope initially. 2. Include in the above estimate the capabilities of Yugo ~ slavia in the event of the foregoing actions. DISCUSS ION 3. See Appendix. CONCLUS IONS 4. In a Soviet-Satellite attack on Western Europe which includes an attack on Yugoslavia, Yugoslavia will fight back vigorously and will have available 32 divisions and may be expected to mo bilise 12-13 additional d ivisions from cadres by M / 12 - M / 30 days. 5. In a Soviet-Satellite attack on Western Europe which does NOT include an invasion of Yugoslavia territory, Yugoslavia will prepare for an organized military defense within the country' including the establishment of contact on the flanks of the NATO DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIE-MISE N EREUTCEL PUBLIQUE forces to the North and South. The Yugoslav forces will be as shown in paragraph 4 above. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE m m m APPROVED FOR PUBLIC D ISCLOSURE 6. If Yugoslav territory is invaded by Satellite forces with no concurrent military action in Europe, Yugoslavia will resist invasion with her own forces as shown in paragraph 4, and call upon the United Nations for prompt support. 7. a. It is e stimated that during 1952 the forces of the adjacent Satellites could, with Soviet logistical support, at least drive the Yugoslav Army from the plains north and east of the Danube. When forced back from these forward defensive positions, the Yugoslavs could, if adequate W este rn logistical support were continued, maintain an organized conventional military defense extending from the Ljubljana area to the Vardar Valley and following generally the Sava/Morava Rivers 5 and in addition could conduct organized guerrilla warfare* b. Guerrilla warfare would almost certainly continue even in the absence of outside assistance, A minimum logistic support from the outside would significantly increase the effectiveness of this guerrilla resistance. DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIE-MISE EN LECTURE PUBLIQUE 3 - Enclosure SGM-1455-52 <&■ K Ü 1 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE 5 » ® T O APPROVED FOR PUBLIC DISCLOSURE .iTO APPENDIX SECRET DISCUSSION I. GEBERAL 1 , The Tito regime in Yug oslavia, the only Communist regime not su bservient to Moscow, has steadily, although cautiously, improved its relations with Western governments. This trend represents mainly an attempt at self-preservation rather than any basic change in poli tical philosophy, and reflects the appreciation of the principal Yugo slav Communist leaders that they cannot heal the breach with the USSR and continue to hold power, 2, The year 1951 saw definite progress towards Yugoslav coopera tion with the West,., These relations reached a new high point in Novem ber, 1951, when a bilateral agreement for military aid to Yugoslavia was signed. This agreement authorized American military observers to m ake the observations required by the provisions of MDAP. This was a significant cooperative concession by a country still sensitive about admitting foreign observers on any basis, especailly following her abortive experience with Soviet observers, 3, Ih the event of a Satellite attack upon her, Yugoslavia's success in appealing for United Nation’s assistance would depend on the attitude of the Great Powers influenced by the danger of allowing Yugoslavia to fall victim to aggression. The White Book submitted to the United Nations in 1951 has placed on record the many provocative actions of the Satellites against Yugoslavia, 4, If Yugoslavia is Invaded. In numerous public statements, Tito has repeatedly said that the Yugoslavs would fight if invaded. DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99If DECLASSIFIE-MISE aN EREUTCELSoviet-Sat PUBLIQUE ellite attack in Western Europe included an attack on Yugoslavia, there is no doubt but that Yugoslavs would vigorously re sist the invasion. Such action would have the full support of the ,i0 - 4 - Appendix s g m ”i455-52 K i l f f l APPROVED FOR PUBLIC D ISCLOSURE APPROVED FOR PUBLIC D ISCLOSURE gjyÉÂ&a majority of the Yugoslav people. In addition, the Yugoslavs m ay be expected to wage guerrilla operations throughout any occupied are^Kf^ within the country, 5. Yugoslavia will have 32 divisions available and may be expected to mobilize 12-13 additional divisions from cadres by M / 12 to M / 30 days. While insuring the internal security of the country by the employment of part of her forces in this role Yugoslavia may be expected to initially defend at all points on her frontier, and by delaying actions, gradually withdraw to prepared positions along the fringe of the mountain mass in central Yugoslavia, where a flex ible though continuous front would be established. In addition, the Yugoslav Army would defend the passes through the Ljubljana Gap and the Vardar Valley to the maximum extent permitted by the availability of her forces and by the quantity and suitability of the equipment at hand. The defense, by Yugoslav for ces, of the Ljubljana Gap, as part of the general Allied defense of the western Austria-northeast Italy area, will provide the Yugoslav nation not only with a "window to the west", but also a justification for Allied logistical support via the Leghorn LOC. 6 . If Yugoslavia is not Invaded. If Yugoslavia is not attached In a general war between the West and the Soviet Bloc, Yugoslavia, with the forces shown in para 5, may be expected to prepar e for an organized military defense within Yugoslavia including the establish ment of contact on the flanks of the NATO forces to the North and South. Yugoslavia may be expected to prepare for the defense of the passes thr ough the Ljubljana Gap and Vardar Valley to the maximum extent permitted by the availability of her forces and by the quan tity and quality of the equipment at hand. 7. If Yugoslav Terr itory is Invaded by Satellite Forces with no Concurrent Military Action in Europe. If Yugoslavia Is invaded DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC LOSURE SCDI 99-1340-MSMIby DECLASSIFIE-MISE SatelliteN EERUTCEL PUBLIQUE forces with no concurrent military action in Europe, Yugoslavia will resist invasion with the forces shown in para 5 and call upon the United Nations for prompt support. - 5 - Appendix SGM-1455-52 m m mi APPPPkwen cnp PiiDi ir niQi-M nQiiDc m m m APPROVED FOR PUBLI II. MILITARY 1. Yugoslav Armed Forces a. Army, The Yugoslav Army now consists of 300,000 - 325,000 men organized into 32 re gular divisions,* of which 2 are mechanized. The size of this Army is not expected to increase significantly during 1952. Its fighting ability, by Balkan standards, is high, and it is supplemented by 60,000 members of the KNOJ (including Naval KNOJ) organized into divisions and brigades. ` k* Air Forces, The Yugoslav Air Force (YAF) has approximately 12,000 men. Some 400 aircraft are assigned to operational units. The YAF is primarily a tactical air force for the suppo rt of the ground forces, with a secondary role of air defense. As such it might be re quired to carry out limited offensive missions outside the border of Yugoslavia. It is doubtful whether a sound air defense is within the competence of the YAF. Most of the aircraft are of Soviet World War II design and construction with a small proportion of German aircraft; the serviceability is very low by Western standards* Lack of modern equipment and spare parts would make it difficul t fo r the YAF to accomplish its missions, both within Yugoslavia and beyond the Yugoslav frontiers. ‘ Navy. The Yugoslav Navy includes 6 - 7 Coastal Destroyers (2 obsolete), 2 Submarines (I obsolete), 6 Mine layers, a number of Coastal Minesweepers, some 35 Motor Torpedo Boats, and a small flotilla of Patrol Craft on the Danube River, There Is a Marine Corps some 15,000 strong (10,000 Naval Infantrymen and 5,000 Coastal Artillerymen) which would be available if necessary for direct support of the army; DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE IMSM-0431-99 DECLASSIFIED-PUBLIC DISCLOSURE DECLASSIFIE-MISE IMSM-0431-99 LECTURE EN PUBLIQUE and a Naval Division of the KNOJ of some 6,000 men.

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