Semiconductors: Processors & Components
INDUSTRY UPDATE May 28, 2019
Server Forecast Increasing; Computex Sparks PC Refresh
Summary While the data center and server markets have been in the doldrums, IDC has recently increased its server spending forecast. We remain optimistic that AMD's EPYC CPU shipments can benefit the most of companies in our coverage universe for this expected upside due to market share gains. Increasing server shipments should help balance the memory supply/demand ratio. Also, in this note, we highlight process announcements from AMD, Intel and Nvidia. In our view, AMD's PC CPU and GPU product announcements clearly show that AMD is poised to take PC market share. Computex 2019 may be the most significant PC trade show in years sparking new interest in PCs. Key Points • Earlier in May, IDC released its updated server spending forecast. The forecast increased the total spending expectations for each year, compared to previous expectations, although growth is now expected to be negative in 2019 due to significantly higher than expected revenue in 2018. IDC is forecasting total 2019 spending of $90.4bn (down 3.3% y/y) compared to the previous forecast of $77.8bn (up 3.2% y/y). We believe, based on commentary from suppliers such as Nvidia (NVDA, Hold, $145.25) and Intel (INTC, Hold, $43.64), that growth in 2018 was driven in part by customers buying excess equipment, particularly Chinese customers due to trade concerns, in our view. As a result, we expect continued product digestion in 1H2019. • We believe AMD (AMD, Buy, $29.40) is becoming more competitive with its latest CPU and GPU data center offerings. In May, AMD announced it would partner with Cray to deliver a new supercomputing system that is expected to be the world’s fastest when it launches. The system will include future generation EPYC CPUs and Radeon Instinct GPUs connected through AMD’s Infinity Fabric. On the last Top500 list, AMD had a total of three systems that utilized its CPUs, including one system powered by the Chinese Hygon Dhyana processor, which is based on AMD EPYC technology, while none utilized AMD’s GPU co-processors. We view the company’s increased presence at high-end data centers and HPC as a tailwind to GM expansion. • This year’s Computex event began with a keynote from AMD’s CEO, Lisa Su. AMD officially announced its next generation desktop CPU and GPU at the event. The 3rd generation Ryzen CPUs are built on Zen 2 cores that utilize TSMC's 7nm process. These are expected to be available on July 7 with offerings from $199 to $499. We believe the lower price for comparable performance to Intel’s offerings should drive share gains for AMD which will lead to increased corporate ASPs and GM. AMD's Navi GPU is also expected to be available in July and we expect additional details during the company's E3 event on June 10. Notably, we see AMD's move to GDDR6 as providing a cost benefit compared to the company's prior use of HBM2, which could increase GM or make the cards more competitive on a price/performance basis. • At Computex, Intel announced that its 10th generation Intel Core processors, utilizing 10nm process technology, are now shipping, on track for the company's previous timeline of OEM systems on the shelves for the 2019 holiday season. Intel is offering notebook processors from Core i3 to Core i7 that will have 4 cores/8 threads. Nvidia's Computex announcements primarily focused on its expanding number of notebook offerings. The company introduced its Studio platform which combines RTX GPUs with a stack of specialized SDKs and drivers aimed at creators with workloads such as video editing and 3D rendering. With the new platform, Nvidia announced 17 new Studio notebooks from leading OEMs with prices beginning at $1599. • inSpectrum’s April 2019 smartphone AP shipment forecast was down slightly compared to the March forecast. In total, for 2019, inSpectrum forecasts AP processors down 4.03% y/y compared to previous expectations of a 3.78% y/y decline. The forecast from inSpectrum does not reflect any impact from the recently announced restrictions of exports to Huawei. We believe the restrictions could have a slight impact on Qualcomm’s (QCOM, Buy, $66.48) shipments, as it still supplies chips for some of Huawei’s low-end handsets. Longer term, we expect that if Huawei is unable to support its smart phones full bill-of-material, Chinese market share would likely shift toward other local manufacturers such as Xiaomi, Lenovo, Vivo, and Oppo. We view this as positive for Qualcomm given its greater share with those companies.
Pricing is intraday 5/28/2019.
Kevin E. Cassidy | (202) 778-1595 | [email protected] John J. Donnelly | (202) 756-7769 | [email protected] Nicolas E. Doyle | (202) 778-1975 | [email protected] Stifel Equity Trading Desk | (800) 424-8870
Stifel does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. All relevant disclosures and certifications appear on pages 7 - 10 of this report. Industry Update May 28, 2019
Data Center Earlier in May, IDC released its updated server spending forecast. Compared to the previous forecast in 2018, total spending is expected to be higher in every year from 2019 – 2022, although at a negative growth rate in 2019 due to significantly higher than forecasted growth in 2018. Total 2018 spending of $93.5bn (+32.4% y/y) was above the prior expectations of $75.4bn (+6.8% y/y). IDC is forecasting total 2019 spending of $90.4bn (-3.3% y/y) compared to the previous forecast of $77.8bn (+3.2% y/y). The higher total revenue in 2018 was helped by higher ASPs as total unit shipment growth was 16.2% y/y, less than the 32.4% y/y spending increase. We believe, based on commentary from suppliers such as Nvidia and Intel, that the growth in 2018 was driven in part by customers buying excess equipment, particularly Chinese customers due to trade concerns, in our view. As a result, we expect continued product digestion in 1H2019. Figure 1: Total Server Spending 2018 – 2023E
. Source: IDC, previous forecast only included estimates through 2022
2 Industry Update May 28, 2019
Figure 2: Total Server Shipments 2018 – 2023E
. Source: IDC, previous forecast only included estimates through 2022 As shown in FIgure 3, below, according to IDC, GPUs are expected to remain the primary data center co-processor through at least 2023. According to IDC, total data center GPU revenue in 2018 was $2.9bn, compared to $0.7bn for FPGAs and $0.2bn for ASICs. AMD grew its unit market share to ~9.5% in 4Q18, compared to ~8% in 3Q18 while revenue market share remained lower at ~5% in 4Q18 and ~4% in 3Q18. IDC noted that AMD is primarily focused on virtual desktop workloads while just beginning to ramp products to specifically address AI. The FPGA market is expected to primarily be driven by increased applications, particularly data analytics and deep learning while the ASIC market is looking to address some FPGA/GPU workloads while also moving from the data center to the edge. IDC forecasts that data center GPU revenue will grow at a CAGR of ~32% from 2018 - 2023. We are more conservative in the near term as we estimate Nvidia's data center GPU revenue will grow ~9% y/y in its January-ending FY2020 after it declined ~9.6% y/y in F1Q20. While we expect AMD's products to become increasingly competitive, we do not believe that will fully overcome industry headwinds as a result of inventory builds in 2018.
3 Industry Update May 28, 2019
Figure 3: Data Center Co-Processor Revenue 2017 – 2023E
. Source: IDC In May, AMD announced it would partner with Cray to deliver a new supercomputing system that is expected to be the world's fastest when it launches. We expect AMD to begin recording project revenue in 2021. In our view, the design win indicates the strength of AMD’s product roadmap as well as the company’s ability to leverage its combination of CPUs and GPUs in the data center. The system, called “Frontier” will include future generation EPYC CPUs and Radeon Instinct GPUs connected through AMD’s Infinity Fabric. On the last Top500 list, AMD had a total of three systems that utilized its CPUs, including one system powered by the Chinese Hygon Dhyana processor, which is based on AMD EPYC technology, while none utilized AMD’s GPU co-processors. As a result, we view this win as confirmation of AMD’s ability to compete at the highest performance tiers which we view as a tailwind for ASP and GM expansion. Networking We continue to view networking, along with memory, as the key to future architecture improvements. We believe this has been demonstrated by recent acquisitions as companies look to gain greater vertical integration and control the system networking technology for both improved data transfer speeds as well as off-loading processing capabilities. As a recap of recent activity for networking companies. On April 24, Xilinx announced it would acquire Solarflare, noting the company’s ultra- low latency NIC technology and software, which could combine with Xilinx’ FPGA technology to enable SmartNIC solutions and provide more platform solutions. Marvell announced on May 6 that it would acquire Aquantia which expands the company’s multi-gig Ethernet portfolio, particularly for the automotive market. On May 20, Marvell announced it would also acquire Avera Semiconductor, which is part of GLOBALFOUNDRIES. Avera ASICs provide fully customized solutions for enterprise networking, carrier, and data center applications. Previously, on March 27, ON Semiconductor announced it would acquire Quantenna to leverage its WiFi technology for fixed-point devices and industrial IoT. Additionally, HPE acquired supercomputer manufacturer Cray and noted that it would leverage technology such as Cray’s Slingshot interconnect, to lower costs and improve product performance. These moves follow Nvidia’s announcement on March 11 that it would acquire Mellanox for $6.9bn. We believe these acquisitions demonstrate the importance of the entire network working as an integrated system to optimize data transfer, memory access, and process workloads to reduce CPU utilization given the end of Moore’s Law. According to Mellanox’ 1Q19 10Q filing, the company realized $23.2mn in revenue from 200G HDR InfiniBand in the quarter, up 128% q/q from 4Q18 which represented initial 200G revenue. Comparatively, Mellanox recognized initial 100G InfiniBand revenue in 2Q15 and grew to $24.8mn a full year later, in 2Q16. We see the steeper revenue ramp for 200G as evidence for the increased importance of networking and the demand for higher speed interconnects to prevent bottlenecks.
4 Industry Update May 28, 2019
PC As we recapped in our note, AMD Takes Desktop PC CPU Lead, AMD officially announced its next generation desktop CPU and GPU during a keynote address at Computex. The 3rd generation Ryzen CPUs are built on Zen 2 cores that utilize TSMC's 7nm process. We view this as the first time AMD is leading Intel on process technology and performance. Given AMD's considerably lower pricing on what appears to be comparable performance, we expect the company to continue to gain share at the higher end of the PC market which should lead to ASP and GM expansion. The 3rd generation Ryzen desktop CPUs are expected to be available on July 7 with offerings from $199 (6 core/12 thread) to $499 (12 cores/24 threads). We believe AMD's use of chiplet technology, particularly in the high core count processors, provides an advantage over Intel's traditional monolithic die. AMD's Navi GPU is also expected to be available in July and we expect additional details during the company's E3 event on June 10. The graphics cards also utilize the 7nm process. We believe these offerings will move AMD up the value curve in GPUs, although we expect Nvidia will maintain an advantage at the highest performance tiers, although at a higher ASP. Notably, we see AMD's move to GDDR6 as providing a cost benefit compared to the company's prior use of HBM2, which could increase GM or make the cards more competitive on a price/performance basis. At Computex, Intel announced that its 10th generation Intel Core processors, utilizing 10nm process technology, are now shipping, on track for the company's previous timeline of OEM systems on the shelves for the 2019 holiday season. The 10nm processors are focused on notebooks, particularly thin and light and 2-in-1s. Intel is offering processors from Core i3 to Core i7 that will have 4 cores/8 threads. Intel also launched 14 new 9th generation Core vPro processors for high-performance mobile and desktop PCs with up to 8 cores/16 threads. These offerings include the first i9 processors in the vPro platform which is Intel's line for business/commercial PCs. The company also announced a special edition i9-9900KS processor that can deliver up to 5GHz all-core frequency as its highest-end desktop gaming processor. Nvidia's Computex announcements primarily focused on its expanding number of notebook offerings. The company introduced its Studio platform which combines RTX GPUs with a stack of specialized SDKs and drivers aimed at creators with workloads such as video editing and 3D rendering. In line with the new platform, Nvidia announced 17 new notebooks from OEMs including Acer, ASUS, Dell, GIGABYTE, HP, MSI, and Razer with prices beginning at $1599. The notebook GPU options will include Quadro RTX 5000, 4000, and 3000 GPUs as well as GeForce RTX 2080, 2070, and 2060 GPUs. Nvidia also announced the release of nine new GeForce gaming laptops from leading OEMs, bringing the total number of systems introduced at Computex to 25 and increasing the total number of Turing-based laptops to 125. Application Processor inSpectrum’s April AP shipment forecast indicated slightly lower 2019 smartphone AP shipments compared to the March forecast. In total, for 2019, inSpectrum now expects 1.35bn processors to be shipped, down 4.03% y/y compared to previous expectations of a 3.78% y/y decline. Within the forecast, HiSilcon, which is owned by Huawei, continues to gain relative market share. Smartphone processors from HiSilicon are expected to increase 38% y/y in 2019 to a total of 192mn compared to 140mn in 2018. The forecasted unit shipments from HiSilicon increased by 1.6% relative to the March forecast. The increased outlook was a result of higher share relative to Apple, as inSpectrum lowered its 2019 company forecast by 2.9% compared to March expectations. The forecast from inSpectrum does not reflect any impact from the recently announced restrictions of exports to Huawei. We believe the restrictions could affect Qualcomm’s shipments, as it still supplies chips for some of Huawei’s low-end handsets. Longer term, we expect that if Huawei is unable to support its full bill of materials, Chinese market share would likely shift toward other local manufacturers such as Xiaomi, Lenovo, Vivo, and Oppo. We view this as positive for Qualcomm given its greater share with those companies.
5 Industry Update May 28, 2019
Figure 4: Smartphone AP Units 2012-2019E
. Source: inSpectrum Qualcomm: In its F2Q19 earnings report, Qualcomm stated that it expects total global 3G/4G/5G device shipments of 1.80bn – 1.90bn in 2019, up ~3% from 1.80bn in 2018. This forecast assumes a slight decline in global handset units offset by growth in non-handsets. According to IDC, total smartphone shipments declined 6.6% y/y in 1Q19 which compares to a 3.5% y/y decline in 1Q18 and a 4.1% y/ y decline for the full year 2018. MediaTek: MediaTek reported that its April 2019 revenue was up 13.4% y/y and its revenue YTD was up 8.2% y/y. The company had previously stated that its three main segments, smartphone, smart home, and growth sectors, all contribute roughly equally to overall revenue. MediaTek plans to ship its 5G SoC product in the first half of 2020 and intends to initially address the high-end of the market.
6 Industry Update May 28, 2019
Important Disclosures and Certifications
I, Kevin E. Cassidy, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers; and I, Kevin E. Cassidy, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. Our European Policy for Managing Research Conflicts of Interest is available at www.stifel.com/institutional/ImportantDisclosures.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) as of May 27, 2019 (in USD)
09/27/2016 01/31/2017 05/01/2017 07/26/2017 04/04/2018 04/26/2018 05/31/2018 07/16/2018 09/19/2018 10/24/2018 6.54 10.37 13.62 14.76 9.77 11.04 13.73 16.58 31.21 22.79 H:6.80 H:8.00 H:11.00 H:13.00 B:13.00 B:14.00 B:17.00 B:21.00 B:38.00 B:34.00 35 30 25 20 15
10 Price (USD) Price 5 0 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19
*Represents the value(s) that changed. Buy=B; Hold=H; Sell=S; Discontinued=D; Suspended=SU; Discontinued=D; Initiation=I
For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for AMD go to http://stifel2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action?ticker=AMD
Intel Corporation (INTC) as of May 27, 2019 (in USD)
01/14/2016 09/16/2016 07/27/2017 10/19/2017 10/31/2017 01/25/2018 04/04/2018 04/26/2018 06/21/2018 07/26/2018 10/25/2018 01/24/2019 32.74 37.67 34.97 40.09 45.49 45.30 49.99 53.05 52.19 52.16 44.31 49.76 B:37.00 B:39.00 B:41.00 B:46.00 B:50.00 B:53.00 H:53.00 H:57.00 H:60.00 H:52.00 H:54.00 H:50.00 60 55 50 45 40 35 Price (USD) Price 30 25 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 04/25/2019 57.61 H:47.00
*Represents the value(s) that changed. Buy=B; Hold=H; Sell=S; Discontinued=D; Suspended=SU; Discontinued=D; Initiation=I
For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for INTC go to http://stifel2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action?ticker=INTC
7 Industry Update May 28, 2019
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) as of May 27, 2019 (in USD)
04/05/2016 09/27/2016 11/11/2016 02/10/2017 05/10/2017 08/10/2017 11/09/2017 02/08/2018 05/10/2018 08/16/2018 11/15/2018 01/28/2019 35.75 66.54 87.97 113.62 121.29 164.74 205.32 217.52 260.13 257.44 202.39 138.01 H:NA H:64.00 H:76.00 H:90.00 H:93.00 H:110.00 H:184.00 H:220.00 H:243.00 H:250.00 H:200.00 H:135.00 300
250
200
150
100 Price (USD) Price 50
0 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 02/14/2019 05/14/2019 05/22/2019 154.53 162.04 152.20 H:150.00 H:145.00 H:140.00
*Represents the value(s) that changed. Buy=B; Hold=H; Sell=S; Discontinued=D; Suspended=SU; Discontinued=D; Initiation=I
For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for NVDA go to http://stifel2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action?ticker=NVDA
Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) as of May 27, 2019 (in USD)
11/18/2015 07/20/2016 10/27/2016 01/25/2017 03/28/2017 04/19/2017 04/28/2017 05/25/2017 11/28/2017 02/05/2018 02/21/2018 04/19/2018 48.00 55.82 70.09 56.90 57.38 52.61 53.74 58.45 68.38 61.73 63.40 52.57 B:59.00 B:67.00 B:80.00 B:65.00 B:64.00 B:65.00 B:56.00 B:65.00 H:75.00 H:82.00 H:68.00 H:56.00 100
90
80
70
60 Price (USD) Price 50
40 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 04/25/2018 07/25/2018 09/26/2018 11/08/2018 01/30/2019 04/16/2019 05/01/2019 49.75 59.42 71.76 58.05 50.17 70.45 86.37 H:54.00 H:58.00 H:62.00 H:58.00 H:57.00 B:100.00 B:96.00
*Represents the value(s) that changed. Buy=B; Hold=H; Sell=S; Discontinued=D; Suspended=SU; Discontinued=D; Initiation=I
For a price chart with our ratings and target price changes for QCOM go to http://stifel2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action?ticker=QCOM
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SELL -We expect a total return below -5% over the next 12 months with total return equal to the percentage price change plus dividend yield.
8 Industry Update May 28, 2019
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9 Industry Update May 28, 2019
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