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The Recent Israeli Elections, the Israeli Left and Their Ramifications: an Analysis

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The Recent Israeli Elections, the Israeli Left and Their Ramifications: an Analysis ó Meinung The Recent Israeli Elections, the Israeli Left and their Ramifications: An Analysis by Uri Zaki I will begin with the bottom line first: Janu- ary‘s Israeli national elections were a major blow for Prime Minister Netanyahu. Indeed, û Uri Zaki is the Director of B‘Tselem Netanyahu will form Israel‘s next government USA – a Washington DC office of an Is- as well, but he will be much weaker politically raeli Human Rights Organization. He was a candidate on the Meretz party‘s and publically than in the former coalition. De- list in the recent Israeli elections. spite the fact that the Left has not won the elec- tions, they did set the ground for a significant Photo: privately growth of this camp towards the next national elections in four years or less. In this piece I will first analyze the reasons for Netanyahu and the The post-social protest Israeli Middle Class Right‘s weakening, than I will analyze the differ- did not share this set of priorities: Israelis ent players in the Center-Left and finally, I will could not be happy about the macro-econ- suggest an outlook on how the Israeli Left can omy while the cost of living was constantly emerge victorious in the next elections. rising while social services were gradually disappearing ; They did not like the alliance The undercurrents that led to this result with the Ultra Orthodox community that is could be found in the big social protest of the exempt from the military service on the one summer of 2011. The conventional wisdom hand and does not join the work force on the was that the social protest was broken politi- other hand – heavily relied on government cally and will not have a significant effect on subsidies without sharing the burden of nei- the elections. Yet, the frustration of the Israeli ther taxes nor service; They wanted Israel to middle-class that erupted that summer was the remain a member of the Western democratic same one that drew away from Netanyahu, and world – not one that is engaged on attacks also increased the number of voters in the big Is- on democratic institutions, ethnic minorities raeli coastal cities – the strong-hold of the Israeli or political rivals, and certainly not one that middle-class. The Israeli middle-class message jeopardizes Israel‘s most important alliance to Netanyahu was that they do not share the with the United States, whose re-elected ideological basis of his outgoing coalition, and President showed his discontent with Netan- that they want a new set of priorities. Netan- yahu and his positions (after the latter sup- yahu‘s term was focused on the following ele- ported almost bluntly the Republican con- ments: a defiant position vis a‘ vis the world on tender in the US elections of 2012). the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the develop- ment of the settlement enterprise; Prevention The Right – even without coordination with the US – of an Iranian nuclear weapon; an attack on the Left, In all the polls prior to the elections the the Israeli-Palestinian citizens, the judiciary and Rightist coalition – based on the Rightist other democratic institutions; an alliance with parties together with the two Ultra-Ortho- the Ultra-Orthodox community; An emphasis dox religious parties, was leading 66-54 on on Israel‘s macro-economic standing, despite the Center-Left bloc. Yet, The actual results the world economic crisis. were a de-facto tie between the two blocs. spw 1 | 2013 Ausgabe_171_1.indd 4 26.05.09 13:57 Meinung ó The most important event in the elec- The Center-Left tion cycle occurred two months prior to the elections: in November 2012 PM Netanyahu This bloc includes the parties that oppose and Foreign minister Lieberman announced Netanyahu. Nonetheless, it is not necessar- a unification of their two respective parties ily an ideological bloc (much like the Right – the Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu – into one is not solid ideologically). It consists of the joint list in the upcoming elections. It was traditional Left leaning parties: Labor and reported that this joint list, that together Meretz, the Center parties of Kadima, and had 42 seats in the last Knesset, is expecting two new parties – „the Movement“ led by to increase its representation in at least ten former Kadima leader Zipi Livni and „Yesh percent. In failed to do so. The joint list end- Atid“ led by former TV show host and col- ed up getting 31 seats – losing over 25% of umnist Yair Lapid. The third component is its seats. Yet, the real reasoning for the uni- the Arab parties – Hadash – a communist fication was to leave Netanyahu as the sole party which is the only one that has an ac- candidate for Prime Minister, and prevent tive Jewish group, the Islamic list and a na- potential threats – namely former PM Ehud tionalistic-secular list (Balad). Olmert – to join the race, as it put Netanyhu as the leader of the biggest party, that no In early 2012 the Labor party elected other one could threaten. Yet, this one-can- former TV show host and outspoken journal- didate-election was also one of the sources ist Shelly Yechimovich as the Chairwoman of of Netanyahu‘s loss. A new rightwing force the party. Her election rejuvenated the party. – Naftali Benet and his Jewish Home party. She brought back to the forefront of the Benet was elected only few months before Israeli political arena such ideals as Social- the elections in dramatic primary election Democracy and social justice. Many of the in the National Religious party in which he young leaders and activists of the 2011 social portrayed himself as the new religious right protest joined the Labor party as a conse- - a young successful high-tech exit million- quence. Yet, since her election Yechimovich aire, who as much as he cares about the set- decided to put all of the party‘s messaging tlements also brings hope to the young mid- on social issues, distancing it from political dle class. He was basically saying: Netanyahu issues related to the Israeli-Palestinian con- is bound to be the next PM. By voting to us flict. She was quoted saying that „it will be you ensure all these values that me and my a historical distortion to call the Labor party party stand for – a kind of high-tech right.. ‚Left‘“. She had positive comments towards Soon, the joint Likud-Beitenu list was begin- the settlers and took pride that the Labor ning to rapidly lose support to the Benet list party started the settlement enterprise. She in the polls. That triggered a scare campaign was also actively working against the elec- by the Likud, portraying Benet‘s list as an ex- tion of Peace Now‘s Executive Director Yariv tremist one. The Likud leaked a video clip to Oppenheimer, as if not to stain the party the Israeli TV channel 2, in which number 13 with a peace activist face. It seems that her on the Benet list is speaking in the US about strategy was to capture right-leaning voters the need to blow up the Masque on the Tem- who are hawks on the Israeli-Palestinian is- ple Mount/Haram Al Sharif in Jerusalem. sue, but strongly oppose Netanyahu‘s so- The campaign was effective yet it did not cial-economical neo-liberal policies. Yechi- result in the Likud desired outcome – voters movich started the election cycle with a shifted from Benet‘s list to the Centrist one strong standing as the second biggest party of Yair Lapid, who became the great winner in the polls, with a result of over 20 seats. of the election. She ended up with only 15 seats – the La- spw 1 | 2013 Ausgabe_171_1.indd 5 26.05.09 13:57 ó Meinung bor party‘s second worst result in history. It The Center Parties seems that different reasons led to this poor performance, some of them have to do with In a somewhat unique phenomena of the the Chairwoman‘s personality, but I would Israeli parliamentarian democracy, new par- name three reasons that I believe were the ties emerge with each electoral cycle while main ones: others evaporate. In these elections two new parties emerged while one dramati- 1. Yechimovich failed to unite the Center- cally shrunk – Kadima, which for the last two Left behind her, and namely to have Zipi elections was the biggest party in the Knes- Livni, the former leader of Kadima to set, lost 26 of its 28 seats, and barley crossed join her party. This was a necessary step the threshold with just two seats. Its former to counter the union of the Likud and chair, Zipi Livni, after a long dilemma de- Liebreman‘s party in the Right. cided to form a new party, „HaTnu‘ah“ (=the Movement) which will put the peace process 2. By going against the message of peace with the Palestinians as its main message. which was a major pillar in the Labor She was joined by two former chairmen of party‘s narrative since the 70s and cer- the Labor party (Amram Mitzna and Amir tainly since the 90s (even if it was many Peretz) and some other public figures. Livni times just a lip service), Yechimovich tried to portray herself as a candidate to the was acting against the electoral base of position of Prime Minister, but no one took the party, which in reaction was looking that seriously. It seems like her failure to join for a new political home, mainly within Yechimovich and the fact she was consid- Meretz.
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