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L'oréal 14Th May 2013 Growth Momentum Set to Accelerate Luxury & Consumer Goods Fair Value EUR150 Vs

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L'oréal 14Th May 2013 Growth Momentum Set to Accelerate Luxury & Consumer Goods Fair Value EUR150 Vs INDEPENDENT RESEARCH UPDATE L'Oréal 14th May 2013 Growth momentum set to accelerate Luxury & Consumer Goods Fair Value EUR150 vs. EUR125 (price EUR134.05) BUY Bloomberg OR FP In 2013, L’Oréal should benefit from an acceleration of its sales Reuters OREP.PA growth momentum (+6%) and profitability expansion (+50bps). We 12-month High / Low (EUR) 136.1 / 87.6 reiterate our BUY recommendation with a 150EUR Fair Value vs Market capitalisation (EURm) 81,040 Enterprise Value (BG estimates EURm) 78,194 125EUR previously Avg. 6m daily volume ('000 shares) 594.4 Free Float 37.5% The first quarter (organic growth of 5.8% for the Cosmetics division) 3y EPS CAGR 7.9% Gearing (12/12) -8% bodes well for L’Oréal’s performance this year, especially as the group Dividend yield (12/13e) 1.86% won significant market share, having grown 1.5x faster than the market. The group improved its positions in all geographic regions and all YE December 12/12 12/13e 12/14e 12/15e Revenue (EURm) 22,462 23,850 25,300 26,600 divisions in Q1. EBIT (EURm) 3,697 4,065 4,440 4,815 Basic EPS (EUR) 4.91 5.16 5.64 6.16 In a dynamic cosmetics market, which admittedly slowed down slightly in Diluted EPS (EUR) 4.91 5.16 5.64 6.16 Q1, driven partly by emerging markets where growth potential is still EV/Sales 3.5x 3.3x 3.0x 2.8x significant, L’Oréal should continue to win market share in particular in EV/EBITDA 17.7x 16.0x 14.5x 13.3x EV/EBIT 21.5x 19.2x 17.3x 15.6x the US and in new markets and accelerate its sales growth thanks to i/ its P/E 27.3x 26.0x 23.8x 21.8x presence across all distribution channels, ii/ globalised Research & ROCE 21.6 23.1 24.5 25.4 Development which allows L’Oréal to launch products which meet 13/5/13 consumers’ specific needs and iii/ the strength of its brands. 160 150 For 2013, we forecast like-for-like sales growth of 6% (+5.5% in 2012), 140 driven by New Markets (+10.5%). In 2014 (+6%) and 2015, the trend 130 should continue to be positive. 120 The group’s profitability should continue to improve thanks to i/ gross 110 margin expansion as a result of the optimisation of industrial processes, 100 ii/ a reduction of operating costs as a % of sales. Thus in 2013, we factor 90 M J J A S O N D J F M A M L'OREAL in a 50 bp EBIT margin improvement to 17.0% followed by a 50 bp gain STOXX EUROPE 600 E - PRICE INDEX Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream in 2014. The share price has risen 29% year-to-date. The performance was boosted by speculation of a buyback of Nestlé’s stake. We reiterate our Buy recommendation and increase our FV on L’Oréal to EUR150 vs EUR125 previously. Our FV is derived from our DCF model (150EUR), corroborated by a valuation by historical average. Analyst: Sector Analyst Team: Loïc Morvan Peter Farren 33(0) 1 70 36 57 24 Cédric Rossi [email protected] r r L'Oréal Income Statement (EURm) 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e 2015e Revenues 19,496 20,343 22,462 23,850 25,300 26,600 Change (%) 11.6% 4.3% 10.4% 6.2% 6.1% 5.1% Gross margin 13,799 14,492 15,874 16,920 18,000 18,935 Change (%) 12.1% 5.0% 9.5% 6.6% 6.4% 5.2% EBITDA 3,796 4,073 4,497 4,885 5,280 5,654 EBIT 3,056 3,293 3,697 4,065 4,440 4,815 Change (%) 18.6% 7.8% 12.3% 10.0% 9.2% 8.4% Financial results 248 271 302 262 277 312 Pre-Tax profits 3,304 3,564 3,999 4,327 4,717 5,127 Exceptionals NM NM NM NM NM NM Tax 932 978 1,025 1,195 1,295 1,390 Profits from associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 Minority interests 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net profit 2,372 2,586 2,974 3,132 3,422 3,737 Restated net profit 2,372 2,586 2,974 3,132 3,422 3,737 Change (%) 18.7% 9.0% 15.0% 5.3% 9.2% 9.2% Cash Flow Statement (EURm) Operating cash flows 3,171 3,226 3,661 3,952 4,262 4,576 Change in working capital (132) 322 129 129 158 205 Capex, net 658 866 955 1,050 1,100 1,200 Financial investments, net 161 717 466 200 0.0 0.0 Dividends 936 1,030 1,133 1,303 1,433 1,576 Other (372) (253) (94.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net debt 40.6 (504) (1,576) (2,847) (4,418) (6,013) Free Cash flow 2,645 2,038 2,577 2,773 3,004 3,171 Balance Sheet (EURm) Tangible fixed assets 2,677 2,881 2,963 3,173 3,433 3,794 Intangibles assets 7,908 8,682 9,103 9,103 9,103 9,103 Company description Cash & equivalents 1,550 1,652 1,823 3,093 4,665 6,260 L'Oréal is the global leader in the current assets 5,446 6,070 6,387 6,649 6,979 7,365 Other assets 6,463 7,572 9,249 9,249 9,249 9,249 Cosmetics sector boasting market Total assets 24,044 26,857 29,525 31,268 33,429 35,771 share of around 12%. The group is the L & ST Debt 1,591 1,148 247 247 247 247 only player present in all market Others liabilities 7,587 8,073 8,340 7,766 7,938 8,120 segments (Hairdressers, Mass Market, Shareholders' funds 14,866 17,636 20,938 23,255 25,244 27,404 Selective Circuit, Chemists). The Total Liabilities 24,044 26,857 29,525 31,268 33,429 35,771 Capital employed 10,278 11,699 12,305 12,644 13,062 13,628 Consumer Products division accounts Financial Ratios for 52% of Cosmetics sales. The Gross margin (% of sales) 70.78 71.24 70.67 70.94 71.15 71.18 remaining is coming from Luxury Operating margin 15.68 16.19 16.46 17.04 17.55 18.10 Products (25%) and Professionals Tax rate 27.26 28.21 27.43 25.63 27.61 27.46 Products. The main brands are Net margin 12.17 12.71 13.24 13.13 13.52 14.05 ROE (after tax) 13.45 13.45 12.35 12.79 0.0 0.0 L'Oréal Professionnel, L'Oréal Paris, ROCE (after tax) 21.41 20.27 21.63 23.15 24.47 25.44 Garnier, Maybelline, Lancôme, Gearing 0.27 -2.86 -7.53 -12.24 -17.50 -21.94 Armani. Western Europe accounts for Pay out ratio 44.85 46.24 46.87 48.44 49.67 50.35 36% of Cosmetics sales while New Number of shares, diluted 591,000 598,000 606,000 607,000 607,000 607,000 Markets are the first group area (39% Data per Share (EUR) of sales). Bettencourt family owns EPS 4.01 4.33 4.91 5.16 5.64 6.16 Restated EPS 4.01 4.33 4.91 5.16 5.64 6.16 30.7% of shares while Nestlé owns % change 16.9% 7.8% 13.5% 5.2% 9.2% 9.2% 29.5%. BVPS 25.15 29.49 34.55 38.31 41.59 45.15 Operating cash flows 5.37 5.39 6.04 6.51 7.02 7.54 The group's main brands are L'Oréal FCF 4.48 3.41 4.25 4.57 4.95 5.22 Professionnel, L'Oréal Paris, Garnier, Net dividend 1.80 2.00 2.30 2.50 2.80 3.10 Maybelline, Lancôme, Armani. Source: Company Data; Bryan, Garnier & Co ests. L'Oréal derives 40% of its sales from western Europe, 37% from new markets and 23% from North America 2 L'Oréal 1. A growing global cosmetics market L’Oréal’s greatest asset is to operate in a cosmetics market that has benefited from steady long-term growth and should continue to do so. Indeed, over the past ten years, the average annual growth rate of the global cosmetics sector has been close to 4%. There are many catalysts for the continued momentum of the global market. We would highlight two main ones : i/ an ageing of the world’s population, including in some New Markets and ii/ the emergence of the middle class in New Markets. In addition, the cosmetics market is essentially an offer-based market, driven by innovation, as consumers are looking for high-quality products, which explains why this market has not been commoditised and has not suffered from any devaluation. 1.1. A growing global market After growing by 4.4% in 2011, according to L’Oréal, the cosmetics market grew 4.6% last year and all factors point towards a continuation of this positive trend this year. The group’s CEO, Mr. Jean- Paul Agon, announced during the publication of Q1 2013 sales that he expected the market to grow by close to 4% this year, marked however by a slow-down at the beginning of the year relative to 2012.
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