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Final Report of the Working Group on the Integrated Assessments of the Norwegian Sea (WGINOR)

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Final Report of the Working Group on the Integrated Assessments of the Norwegian Sea (WGINOR) ICES WGINOR REPORT 2015 ICES STEERING GROUP ON INTEGRATED ECOSYSTEM ASSESSMENTS ICES CM 2015/SSGIEA:10 REF. SCICOM Final Report of the Working Group on the Integrated Assessments of the Norwegian Sea (WGINOR) 7-11 December 2015 Reykjavik, Iceland International Council for the Exploration of the Sea Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer H. C. Andersens Boulevard 44–46 DK-1553 Copenhagen V Denmark Telephone (+45) 33 38 67 00 Telefax (+45) 33 93 42 15 www.ices.dk [email protected] Recommended format for purposes of citation: ICES. 2016. Final Report of the Working Group on the Integrated Assessments of the Norwegian Sea (WGINOR), 7-11 December 2015, Reykjavik, Iceland. ICES CM 2015/SSGIEA:10. 149 pp. For permission to reproduce material from this publication, please apply to the Gen- eral Secretary. The document is a report of an Expert Group under the auspices of the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea and does not necessarily represent the views of the Council. © 2016 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea ICES WGINOR REPORT 2015 | i Contents Executive summary ................................................................................................................ 3 1 Administrative details .................................................................................................. 5 2 Summary of work plan ................................................................................................. 6 3 Opening of the meeting and adoption of the agenda ............................................. 7 4 Description of terms of reference a-f ......................................................................... 8 5 Operationalizing integrated assessment of the Norwegian Sea (Tor a) ............ 10 6 An updated integrated assessment of the Norwegian Sea ecosystem (Tor b)............................................................................................................................. 13 6.1 Climate and hydrography ................................................................................. 13 6.2 Ocean chemistry .................................................................................................. 17 6.3 Phytoplankton ..................................................................................................... 19 6.4 Zooplankton ........................................................................................................ 20 6.5 Pelagic fish ........................................................................................................... 29 6.6 Mesopelagic fauna and other fish species ....................................................... 35 6.7 Marine mammals ................................................................................................ 41 6.8 Seabirds ................................................................................................................ 44 6.9 Human pressures ................................................................................................ 48 6.10 Interactions between ecosystem components and overall ecosystem trends ................................................................................................. 52 6.11 Trophic ecology of the NEA mackerel, NSS herring and blue whiting in the Norwegian Sea .......................................................................... 55 6.12 Multivariate analysis of ecosystem components ............................................ 64 7 Investigating potential for multispeices management of the pelagic stocks in the Norwegian Sea (Tor c) ......................................................................... 68 7.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 68 7.2 Material and methods ........................................................................................ 68 7.3 Results .................................................................................................................. 70 7.4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................... 72 8 Towards absolute abundance estimates of zooplankton and pelagic fish (Tor d) .................................................................................................................... 73 9 Sampling requirements for integrated assessment of the Norwegian Sea (Tor e) ...................................................................................................................... 76 10 Next meeting ................................................................................................................. 78 ii | ICES WGINOR REPORT 2015 11 References ..................................................................................................................... 79 12 Annexes ......................................................................................................................... 86 Annex 1: List of participants and agenda of the meeting.............................................. 86 Annex 2: Table A1: Dataseries used in integrated analysis of the Norwegian Sea ecosystem (1995-2015). .................................................................... 88 Annex 3: WGINOR multiannual terms of reference for the next meeting ................ 95 Annex 4: Recommendations ............................................................................................... 97 Annex 5. Ecosystem Overview for the Norwegian Sea (Tor f) ..................................... 98 Annex 6. Compilation of zooplankton distribution maps .......................................... 114 Annex 7. Compilation of herring distribution maps ................................................... 123 Annex 8. Compilation of blue whiting distribution maps ......................................... 136 Annex 9. WGINOR Multi Annual Self evaluation ...................................................... 145 ICES WGINOR REPORT 2015 | 3 Executive summary The third meeting of Working Group on Integrated Ecosystem Assessments for the Norwegian Sea (WGINOR) was held in Reykjavik, Iceland, 7–11 December 2015 and was chaired by Geir Huse (Norway) and Guðmundur J. Óskarsson (Iceland). The total number of participants was 15, representing Norway (8), Iceland (5) the Faroese (1), and Greenland (1). The objective of the meeting was to develop further and final- ize the work developed over the initial two meetings and represented by the ToRs. For the initial integrated assessment of Norwegian Sea (ToR a) it was decided to use a fairly straightforward three step operational approach consisting of: 1. Data assem- bly, 2. Data analysis, 3. Interpretation. Hence, relevant time-series of ecological, envi- ronmental, biological and fishery related variables were compiled, described and analysed (ToR b). The temperature of the Norwegian Sea is currently slightly above the normal and has had a downward trend in recent years after a peak in 2007. The biomass of mesozooplankton had a downward trend during 2003–2009, followed by an increasing trend in the subsequent period. In 2015, there was a reduction in the zooplankton level compared to 2014. The length-at-age of herring has been increasing in the last years and is negatively related to stock density. For mackerel on the other hand, there was a strong decreasing trend in length-at-age since 2007, in coherence with a strong density-dependent growth in the stock. A multivariate analysis was performed on all the time-series collected during the recent three years. The principal component analysis shows a shift in the first principal component from high values before 1995 and a sharp decline until 2010. The causes for these changes are not fully understood, but they are related to changes in the overall circulation. The work in WGINOR indicates that the Norwegian Sea ecosystem alternates between bottom up and top down forcing. Number of relevant publications in this field, both by WGINOR members and others, have appeared during the last three years and are addressed in the WGINOR report adequately. Around fivefold increase in beaked redfish biomass in Norwegian Sea has taken place in the last 20 years. The breeding populations of kittiwake, Atlantic puffin, and guillemot in seabird colonies along the Norwegian coast has declined since monitor- ing started in 1980, while the causes are not completely known. The potentially large biomass of mesopelagic fauna (fish, cephalopods, shrimps, and jellyfish) remains unassessed. Regarding the status of marine mammals, the abundance of hooded seals in the Greenland Sea area, which feed to some extent in the Norwegian Sea, has been at low level following a major decline until 1980s. Similar, abundance of large baleen whales has not recovered to the pre-commercial whaling period, even if recent sur- veys suggest changes in either abundance or distribution. Multispecies model (Enac-model) using a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) approach was used to study potential multispecies management of the three domi- nant pelagic fish stocks in the Norwegian Sea (ToR c). The main conclusions were that density-dependent growth can increase the simulated Spawning-Stock Biomass (SSB) and the Total Allowable Catch (TAC), and the results should be considered in relation to potential multispecies management of the stocks. Also, the observed intra- guild predation among the stocks needs to be considered because following precau- tionary approach for one stock
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