Restructuring Verso Paper Corp
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Restructuring Verso Paper Corp. May 3, 2012 Jordan Flowers As prepared for: Martin M. Saravia Laconi Prof. Laura Resnikoff Thomas Silva Turnaround Management Elizabeth Adams Columbia Business School Boris Vaisman 1 Restructuring Verso Paper Corp. Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................................4 INDUSTRY ..........................................................................................................................................6 MARKET TRENDS .......................................................................................................................................... 6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE ............................................................................................................................... 8 COMPANY .......................................................................................................................................11 HISTORY & BUSINESS DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................................ 11 MANUFACTURING PROCESS & VALUE CHAIN ................................................................................................... 13 PRODUCTS ................................................................................................................................................. 14 MANAGEMENT TEAM .................................................................................................................................. 15 SHAREHOLDER PROFILE ................................................................................................................................ 16 RECENT FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ................................................................................................................ 17 SEGMENT OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................... 19 CURRENT CAPITAL STRUCTURE ...................................................................................................................... 21 VALUATION .....................................................................................................................................26 DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................... 26 Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) ........................................................................................ 29 Sensitivity Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 30 COMPARABLE COMPANIES’ ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................. 30 ACQUISITION MULTIPLES ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................ 31 HISTORICAL TRADING PRICES ........................................................................................................................ 32 LIQUIDATION ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................................ 33 PLAN OF REORGANIZATION (“POR”) ................................................................................................. 33 2 Restructuring Verso Paper Corp. OPERATIONAL RESTRUCTURING ..................................................................................................................... 33 BALANCE SHEET RESTRUCTURING .................................................................................................................. 36 DISTRIBUTION OF VALUE & RECOVERY ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 39 APPENDIX ........................................................................................................................................43 3 Restructuring Verso Paper Corp. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since its spinout from International Paper in 2006 and subsequent IPO in 2008, Verso Paper Corp. (“Verso” or “the Company”) has encountered a litany of industrial, financial, and operational challenges. The paper manufacturing industry—and particularly the coated paper industry—has faced strong secular headwinds in the form of declining demand due to the increased adoption of digital media. The Company is harmfully overleveraged, and management has only committed to “kicking the can down the road” with exchange offers and maturity extensions. Finally, the operational strategy has been focused around low-growth, low margin products and has missed opportunities to compete in more robust segments, such as corrugated paper. Under the current capital structure and declining earnings power, our “status-quo” scenario analysis indicates that the Company will become insolvent by 2014. The purpose of this report is to provide a two-pronged Plan of Reorganization (“POR”) to Verso’s Board of Directors, which we believe will strengthen the Company operationally and restore it to financial health. 1. Operational Restructuring – The operational restructuring would be realized by adding corrugated paper manufacturing capabilities to the Company’s four existing paper machines. The conversion process would require capital investment of $10 million per machine. The capacity shift toward corrugated paper—and away from coated/freesheet paper—creates an opportunity to capture demand in a growing market segment and to diversify the Company’s product mix. All together this should provide greater and less volatile income streams. 4 Restructuring Verso Paper Corp. 2. Balance Sheet Restructuring – The recapitalization plan simplifies the capital structure, lowers the Company’s debt burden, and rebalances the debt/equity mix for greater financial health. The proposed capital structure for the Company consists of (i) New Secured Debt of $270 million, equivalent to 1.8x LTM EBITDA, and (ii) New Senior Unsecured Debt of $475 million, equivalent to 3.2x LTM EBITDA. This results in $745 million of total debt at 5.0x LTM EBITDA, versus current total debt of 8.8x LTM EBITDA. In addition, we plan to maintain a revolving credit facility of $200 million, undrawn at the close of the restructuring, which will provide additional liquidity for working capital. Under the restructuring operating case the equity of the Company following the recapitalization is $537 million, which represents 42% of the estimated enterprise value. The proposed POR provides for the full recovery of existing Senior Secured creditors, the Second Priority Senior Secured creditors and the Senior Subordinated Notes. The recovery for the Senior Unsecured Term Loan is just under par. With an estimated enterprise value of $1,282 million, the current equity holders will be wiped out, and therefore are likely to be the most critical of our proposal. The above plan will strengthen the company operationally and provide steadier earnings power. The concurrent reduction in debt obligations will increase cash flow that may be reinvested or distributed to shareholders. Furthermore, we believe our recommendations come at a crucial time when the Board is preparing to welcome new CEO Dave Paterson to the Company. Mr. Paterson is familiar with the recent bankruptcies of competitors NewPage and AbitibiBowater, and we would advise him to enact these changes at Verso in order to avoid a similar outcome. 5 Restructuring Verso Paper Corp. INDUSTRY Market Trends Despite decreased demand in certain segments, the overall market for paper and packaging products has seen increased acquisition activity. International Paper acquired Temple Inland, which recently undertook efforts to increase the earnings of its corrugated box plants. Rock Tenn acquired Smurfit-Stone Container Co, the second largest producer of linerboard. These show the industry leaders working to gain more exposure to the corrugated packaging segment, which shows the most potential for growth. Technology has played a large role in decreasing demand for many paper segments, but it has actually had positive effects on the corrugated segment as the rise in e-commerce has increased the need for shipment containers for goods purchased online. 1 The recent consolidation of corrugated container producers displayed below demonstrated the strategic consolidation the industry has taken in order to capitalize on this growth segment. 1 Standard & Poor’s Industry Survey Paper & Forest Products, Stuart J. Benway CFA, Paper & Forest 6 Restructuring Verso Paper Corp. In a measure of the industries negative outlook on more traditional paper segments, many companies in the sector have been tested with capacity management issues given decreasing demand. The annual capacity survey of domestic paper manufacturers, conducted by the American Forest & Paper Association published in March 2011, showed that US paper and paperboard capacity declined 3.1% in 2010 to 91.1 million tons. This continued a trend of declining capacity as production capability fell 1.1% per year on average from 2001 to 2010.2 In a survey of the industry outlook for 2012 conducted by Deutsche Bank industry professionals supported this view with over 65% of the respondents anticipating a decline in volumes of the uncoated free sheet paper segment, 74% predicting a decline in the coated papers segment, and 71% seeing