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PACÍFICO 2 0 0 3 Programa De Estudios APEC Centro De Estudios De Asia Y África EL COLEGIO DE MÉXICO 4 ASIA PACÍFICO 2003 ÍNDICE 3 ASIA PACÍFICO 2 0 0 3 Programa de Estudios APEC Centro de Estudios de Asia y África EL COLEGIO DE MÉXICO 4 ASIA PACÍFICO 2003 La publicación de esta obra tuvo el apoyo de la Comisión de Relaciones Exteriores Asia Pacífico del Senado de la República. Portada de Irma Eugenia Alva Valencia D.R. © El Colegio de México, A.C. Camino al Ajusco 20 Pedregal de Santa Teresa 10740 México, D. F. www.colmex.mx ISSN 1405-1893 Tipografía, formación e impresión: Solar, Servicios Editoriales, S. A. de C. V. Calle 2, núm. 21, Col. San Pedro de los Pinos, 03820 México, D. F. Se terminó de imprimir en septiembre de 2003. Certificado de licitud de título núm. 8536 y de contenido núm. 6016, expedidos por la Comisión Calificadora de Publicaciones y Revistas Ilustradas el 20 de abril de 1995. Número de reserva 04-1994-000000003662-102. Impreso en México/Printed in Mexico ÍNDICE 5 ASIA PACÍFICO 2003 Publicación anual del Centro de Estudios de Asia y África Director y editor responsable: Dr. Juan José Ramírez Bonilla NÚM. 10 2003 ÍNDICE Asia Pacífico: una década de trabajo continuo, Juan José Ramírez Bonilla 13 El Pacífico: ¿hacia un nuevo orden regional? 15 La República Popular China: el Estado del medio 17 El “combate contra el terrorismo internacional” en Asia Pacífico 21 Las relaciones entre México y Asia Pacífico, Jörg Faust y Uwe Franke 25 Introducción 25 El desarrollo de las relaciones de México con Asia Pacífico 28 Los antecedentes históricos de las relaciones mexicanas con Asia Pacífico 28 Los nuevos intereses mexicanos en Asia Pacífico 32 Relaciones económicas y políticas 35 La dimensión interna de la política mexicana de Asia Pacífico 43 Conflictos distributivos y política exterior 43 Política interior y la política de Asia Pacífico 45 Conclusión de perspectivas 48 Bibliografía 51 5 6 ASIA PACÍFICO 2003 Camboya en 2002, John Marston 59 Elecciones municipales 60 Sihanouk y la cuestión de la sucesión real 64 La comunidad internacional como fiscalizadora del CPP 66 Negociaciones del tribunal del Khmer Rouge 69 Relaciones internacionales 71 Economía 75 Apéndice 78 China, 2002, Romer Alejandro Cornejo 81 Economía 81 Política interna 86 Relaciones con el exterior 92 Sociedad 95 Apéndice 97 La Península Coreana en 2002, José Luis León 101 Introducción 101 Una mirada a la dinámica sociopolítica de la Península Coreana en 2002 102 La economía de la Península Coreana: entre la apertura y la autonomía 107 Las relaciones internacionales de la Península Coreana: del “Brillo de Sol” al “Eje del Mal” 113 Consideraciones finales 117 Apéndice 119 Las Filipinas en 2002, Asunción Benítez-Rush 123 Temas políticos 123 El segundo año de GMA 123 Continúa el juicio contra Estrada 126 Cambios en el gabinete 126 Posibles rivales presidenciales 128 Parálisis del Senado 129 Asuntos de seguridad 130 La percepción de anarquía 130 Insurgencia comunista 131 Región Autónoma en el Mindanao Musulmán 133 ÍNDICE 7 El Frente Islámico Moro de Liberación 134 Abu Sayyaf 135 Bombardeos 137 Presencia de las tropas de Estados Unidos 139 Asuntos económicos 141 Buenas noticias 141 Malas noticias 142 Déficit presupuestal 143 Las preocupaciones de los inversionistas 144 Trabajadores filipinos en el extranjero 145 Relaciones exteriores 148 Énfasis global en la “Guerra contra el Terror” 148 ANSEA 148 Relaciones con China 149 Observaciones finales 150 Apéndice 152 Hong Kong, Eugenio Anguiano 155 Política 157 Comienza el segundo periodo del gobierno de Tung Chee-hwa 157 La forma particular de gobernador de Tung Chee-hwa 158 La marcha hacia el sufragio universal 160 Relaciones con China 162 Autonomía judicial 163 Economía 165 Finanzas públicas 166 Estabilidad cambiaria 168 Sociedad 169 Apéndice 171 Indonesia, Gabriela Uranga 175 Introducción 175 Política 175 Juicio a Tommy Suharto 178 Juicio a Akbar Tandjung 179 Juicios por violaciones a los derechos humanos 180 Reformas a la Constitución 182 Fuerza de los militares 184 8 ASIA PACÍFICO 2003 Regiones conflictivas 185 Aceh 185 Las Molucas 187 Papúa 187 Campañas contra el terrorismo 188 Relaciones internacionales 189 Australia 190 Sureste de Asia 191 Asia 191 Timor del Este 191 Economía 192 Inflación, tipo de cambio y tasas de interés 192 Crecimiento económico y comercio 193 Inversión 194 Manufacturas 195 Turismo 195 Desempleo e inmigración 196 Bancos 196 Deuda y préstamos 197 Perspectivas del gobierno de Megawati 197 Apéndice 199 Japón en 2002, Alfredo Román Zavala 203 Japón, un país hostil 205 Previniendo una crisis con Corea del Norte 208 El Documento Blanco japonés para la defensa estadunidense 209 La relación con China 210 El incidente en el Consulado en Shenyang 212 Las presiones estadunidenses sobre la desfalleciente economía japonesa 215 Barruntos de crisis políticas para 2002 222 Apéndice 226 Laos, Andrés del Castillo Sánchez 229 Situación política interna 231 La vida democrática 231 Administración interna 232 Sociedad 232 ÍNDICE 9 Ecología 233 Economía 234 La energía hidroeléctrica 235 Agricultura 235 El tráfico y producción de drogas, contrabando y comercio informal 236 Turismo 236 Relaciones internacionales 237 Relaciones con Vietnam 237 Laos y China 238 Relaciones con Tailandia 238 Camboya y Laos 239 Restaurando las relaciones Laos-Myanmar 239 Laos y otras naciones 239 Laos en ANSEA 240 Comentarios finales 240 Apéndice 241 Malasia, Juan José Ramírez Bonilla 245 Economía 246 Política interior 251 El combate contra las facciones islamistas radicales 251 Al Ma’Unah 252 Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia 254 La “red internacional terrorista” de Jemaah Islamiyah 258 La “malaysian conection” del 11 de septiembre 262 Las secuelas de las detenciones de 2001 262 Nuevos focos de tensión social 264 La renuncia de Mohammad Mahathir 267 Política exterior 269 Las tensiones con los gobiernos indonesio y filipino a raíz de las deportaciones de inmigrantes 269 El gobierno malasio y la “guerra” contra el terrorismo internacional 271 El “eje antiterrorista” del sudeste asiático 271 Los gobiernos malasio y estadunidense ante el combate al terrorismo 272 Apéndice 275 10 ASIA PACÍFICO 2003 La Federación Rusa, Tatiana Sidorenko 279 Las transformaciones económicas 280 Las características fundamentales de la economía socialista 280 La perestroika y las reformas económicas 284 La transición de una economía de planificación centralizada a una economía de mercado 286 La liberalización de la economía 287 Privatización de empresas estatales 291 La reforma de la tierra 295 Desarrollo del sector empresarial 296 Resultados y el costo de la transición económica 298 Las transformaciones políticas 301 Los cambios en el sistema político y constitucional durante la perestroika 301 La Rusia poscomunista y la construcción de un nuevo Estado 305 Relaciones internacionales 308 La nueva mentalidad política de Mijail Gorbachov 308 La política exterior de la Rusia poscomunista 313 Apéndice 322 Singapur, Juan José Ramírez Bonilla 325 Economía 326 Política interior 332 La elección general del 3 de noviembre de 2001 332 El combate al terrorismo 335 Tímidas respuestas de la población malayo-musulmana 340 Política exterior 341 Las tensiones con los gobiernos de los países vecinos 341 La participación en los foros sobre terrorismo internacional 343 Los acuerdos de libre comercio 344 El Acuerdo de Libre Comercio Japón-Singapur 345 El Acuerdo de Libre Comercio Asociación Europea de Libre Comercio-Singapur 346 El Acuerdo de Libre Comercio Australia-Singapur 346 El Acuerdo Marco para una Cooperación Económica Amplia entre ASEAN y la República Popular China 347 Las negociaciones en curso 348 Apéndice 349 ÍNDICE 11 Tailandia 2002, Guadalupe Ibarra 353 Introducción 353 Política y más 355 Economía 358 Relaciones internacionales 360 Tailandia hereda APEC de México 361 Apéndice 363 Taiwan, Eugenio Anguiano 367 Política 367 Vicisitudes del gobierno 368 Los apuros del presidente Chen Shi-bian 371 Actividad legislativa 373 Catástrofes y escándalos públicos 374 Política exterior 377 El triángulo Taiwan-Estados Unidos-China: la búsqueda de contrapesos 379 Relaciones con China 381 Relaciones con Estados Unidos 382 Economía 383 Política fiscal y financiera 385 Reforma bancaria 386 Apéndice 389 Timor Leste, Andrés del Castillo Sánchez 393 La vida política 394 La independencia 396 Demografía 397 Economía 397 Relaciones internacionales 399 UNMISET 399 Indonesia-Timor Leste 400 Portugal-Timor Leste 401 Australia-Timor Leste 401 EEUU-Timor Leste 402 México-Timor Leste 402 El papel de la Iglesia en la formación de la nueva nación 402 Sociedad 404 12 ASIA PACÍFICO 2003 Los refugiados en Indonesia 404 La inestabilidad política a fin de 2002: ¿terrorismo internacional? 405 Consideraciones finales 405 Apéndice 407 Vietnam, Atzimba Luna Becerril 411 Introducción 411 Política interna 413 Economía 415 Política exterior 418 Apéndice 421 ANEXO ESTADÍSTICO 1. Tipo de cambio promedio anual, 1997-2001 425 2. Exportaciones e importaciones de bienes y servicios 425 3. Balanza de la cuenta comercial (porcentaje del PIB) 426 4. Dirección del comercio: principales países en Asia Pacífico, 1991 427 5. Dirección del comercio: principales países en Asia Pacífico, 2001 428 UNA DÉCADA DE TRABAJO CONTINUO 13 ASIA PACÍFICO: UNA DÉCADA DE TRABAJO CONTINUO JUAN JOSÉ RAMÍREZ BONILLA Programa de Estudios APEC Con Asia Pacífico 2003 inicia la segunda década del anuario publicado por el Programa de Estudios APEC (PE-APEC) del Centro de Estudios de Asia y África (CEAA) de El Colegio de México. Durante los diez años transcurridos, el anuario ha reflejado el proceso de adecuación de la institución y del país a un contexto internacional marcado por el ascenso económico y político de los países de la región asiática del Pacífico. En 1991, Flora Botton Beja fue nombrada directora del CEAA y empren- dió la tarea de actualizar el Centro, para adecuarlo a las situaciones interna- cional y nacional imperantes. En el plano internacional, las economías de industrialización reciente (EIR)1 se consolidaban como actores económicos de primer orden y el grupo llamado ASEAN-42 empezaba a encaminarse en la senda de la industrialización basada en la promoción de las exportaciones de productos manufacturados; el epicentro de la economía mundial, afirmaban los observadores, se desplazaba del Atlántico al Pacífico.
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