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Our warmer world | The debate over what to do about global warming remains divisive One mistaken and politically charged. But few scientists dispute we live on a planet where average temperatures are higher than they were a century ago and will continue to climb. In the Pacific Northwest — a place defined by glacier-clad mountains, rivers and the sea — the clue sets a spy effects are now seen and measurable. Today, we start an occasional series examining how higher saga in motion temperatures exert fundamental change on the Northwest’s natural world — and our lives. Mayfield case | A report reveals the secret steps agents took to trail a terror suspect, and the flaws that led them to the wrong man

By MARK LARABEE and ASHBEL S. GREEN THE OREGONIAN A newly declassified report into the FBI’s investigation of Brandon Mayfield offers a rare look inside a fast-paced in- ternational terrorism investigation, revealing some of the SUMMER 1902 SUMMER 2001 secret tactics investigators used, the Photos courtesy KARL LILLQUIST/CENTRAL WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY intense pressures they faced and their White River Glacier, on the mountain’s south slopes near Mt. Hood Meadows Ski Area, has lost nearly two-thirds of its disagreements. surface in the past century. The photos, nearly identically framed, were taken in summers 99 years apart. In its 273 pages, the report by the Eliot Glacier, situated on the mountain’s northeast face and depicted in the illustration below, Justice Department’s inspector gener- is ’s most studied ice sheet. It is also in retreat. al reveals that investigators initially worried that Mayfield — who was wrongly linked by faulty fingerprint analysis to the March 2004 bombings in Madrid, Spain — could be part of a second wave of U.S. terror attacks. Mount Hood meltdown Mayfield Oregon man was The report explains how investiga- held for two weeks tors’ goal from the beginning was to spy on Mayfield and possibly recruit Average temperatures at Eliot Glacier* By MICHAEL MILSTEIN him as a covert agent. But media THE OREGONIAN » Online: Glaciers react to long-term temperature trends, not leaks in Europe forced their hand. brief spikes. Temperatures in degrees F˚ The FBI bungled its surveillance, enerations know Mount Hood as a landmark for the ages, with an To read the 40˚ Justice the report says, to the degree that the icy crown of gleaming glaciers that supply the streams we drink Department mild-mannered Portland-area lawyer 1899 from, catch fish in and grow food with. inspector figured out that he was being 38˚ 34.45˚ G general’s full watched before federal agents were It is our playground, retreat and beacon on the horizon. It is Oregon. ready to confront him. 36˚ report on the But its glaciers now vanish before our eyes, melting away faster as years Brandon Mayfield “Had Mayfield been a terrorist, the 2005 FBI’s failure . . . could have had seri- case, go to 34˚ 38.85˚ slide by and our world grows warmer. The mountain is changing at a speed www.usdoj.gov/ ous national security implications,” the report says. that will, in our lifetimes, alter its look and character — and its capacity to oig/new.htm 32˚ And the report makes clear that support so much we depend on. 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 without the media leaks, Spanish po- *Running five-year average, based on data from established weather lice eventually would have figured out that the fingerprint stations. Earlier temperatures based on fewer stations. The seven largest of Mount Hood’s 11 ferent, without a doubt,” said Andrew belonged to an Algerian terrorist, allowing the FBI to realize Source: Oregon Climate Service glaciers have already shrunk an average of Fountain, an associate professor at Port- its mistake and shut down the Mayfield operation. Area of Mount Hood glaciers 34 percent since the beginning of the last land State heading the research project, Please see MAYFIELD, Page A14 In square miles century, according to calculations by Kei- which examines and catalogs western 1.5 th Jackson, a Portland State University glaciers. “The glaciers are continuing to graduate student who is part of a glacier retreat. They’re getting a lot smaller. The Eliot research team financed by the National glaciers today look a lot different than 20 1.0 Science Foundation and NASA. years ago.” Newton Clark It happens even faster now, as rising Mount Hood’s glaciers are especially temperatures accelerate change in the re- vulnerable to global warming because Republican Party Coe gion. Scientists in the University of Wash- they hang onto a lonely volcanic peak at .5 Ladd ington’s Climate Impacts Group predict lower elevations and are closer to balmy the Northwest will warm nearly as much ocean weather than ice in many other can’t win for losing White River in the next 20 years as it has in the past 100 mountain regions. Living in an atmos- 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 — about a degree Fahrenheit. phere that is already warmer, they are that old image in Oregon Source: Keith Jackson, Portland State University “In 20 years, it’s going to look a lot dif- Please see MOUNT HOOD, Page A12 Receding glacier Identity | The remade GOP grapples with 1901 translating national victories to state success 2004 2100* *Continued retreat at current rates By JEFF MAPES THE OREGONIAN PORTLAND White River Glacier Over the past two dozen years, the Oregon Republican Mt. Hood Party’s share of the electorate has been remarkably steady. Meadows Ski Area Newton But it is no longer your father’s Grand Old Party. Clark Since 1982 when the party last won a race for governor, Glacier Oregon Republicans have changed. They are less urban, Ladd more religious and — while still the Eliot Glacier Glacier party of the business elite — less like- Coe Glacier Inside: Profiles ly to be well-to-do. of three Nationally, such changes helped Republicans give Republicans control of Congress who represent and the presidency. But in Oregon, the new face of the new makeup of the party has dri- the party | A17 ven away many voters and made Re- publican victories in statewide races a rarity. As a result, Democrats tightened their hold on statewide offices despite losing most of the 20 percentage point regis- tration edge they had three decades ago. Pollsters say inde- pendent voters — who hold the balance of power in Oregon — disproportionately side with Democrats. Oregon Republican Chairman Vance Day doesn’t see his party returning to the day when moderates such as Tom McCall and Mark O. Hatfield held sway. But he thinks Re- publicans are finally getting past the factional battles and ideological shrillness that put off many voters. “I don’t want to say we were stupid teenagers, but we Cloud Cap Inn struck many people that way,” he said. “I think you’re going HOOD RIVER to see a different Republican Party — much more unified N and cohesive and much more on message.” Please see OREGON GOP, Page A17 Source: Keith Jackson, Portland State University ERIC BAKER/THE OREGONIAN

INDEX Country singer Buck Owens dies at 76 WEATHER The Sunday Oregonian is printed Business ...... D1 Northwest ...... B8 on recycled-content newsprint Classified index ...... F1 O! ...... O1 Buck Owens, the maverick honky-tonk singer who Crosswords . . . . .O16, H20 Obituaries ...... B4 scored a string of country hits that included Destinations ...... T1 Opinion ...... E1 Metro ...... B1 Sports ...... C1 “Act Naturally” and “Waitin’ in Your Welfare Line” Movies ...... O12 Weather ...... C12 and later co-hosted the long-running television Nation ...... A4 World ...... A15 A shower series “Hee Haw,” died Saturday. | Page B4 High: 52 • Low: 38 Copyright © 2006 Oregonian Publishing Co. For complete weather, Vol. 154, No. 52,260 210 pages ONLINE AT WWW.OREGONLIVE.COM see C12