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Chapter 11 - Fiscal Policy

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Chapter 11 - Fiscal Policy MACROECONOMICS EXAM REVIEW CHAPTERS 11 THROUGH 16 AND 18 Key Terms and Concepts to Know CHAPTER 11 - FISCAL POLICY I. Theory of Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy is the use of government purchases, transfer payments, taxes, and borrowing to affect macroeconomic variables such as real GDP, employment, the price level, and economic growth. A. Fiscal Policy Tools • Automatic stabilizers: Federal budget revenue and spending programs that automatically adjust with the ups and downs of the economy to stabilize disposable income. • Discretionary fiscal policy: Deliberate manipulation of government purchases, transfer payments, and taxes to promote macroeconomic goals like full employment, price stability, and economic growth. • Changes in Government Purchases: At any given price level, an increase in government purchases or transfer payments increases real GDP demanded. For a given price level, assuming only consumption varies with income: o Change in real GDP = change in government spending × 1 / (1 −MPC) other things constant. o Simple Spending Multiplier = 1 / (1 − MPC) • Changes in Net Taxes: A decrease (increase) in net taxes increases (decreases) disposable income at each level of real GDP, so consumption increases (decreases). The change in real GDP demanded is equal to the resulting shift of the aggregate expenditure line times the simple spending multiplier. o Change in real GDP = (−MPC × change in NT) × 1 / (1−MPC) or simplified, o Change in real GDP = change in NT × −MPC/(1−MPC) o Simple tax multiplier = −MPC / (1−MPC) B. Discretionary Fiscal Policy to Close a Recessionary Gap Expansionary fiscal policy, such as an increase in government purchases, a decrease in net taxes, or a combination of the two: • Could sufficiently increase aggregate demand to return the economy to its potential output. • Causes a higher price level and may cause a budget deficit. C. Discretionary Fiscal Policy to Close an Expansionary Gap Contractionary fiscal policy to reduce aggregate demand by reducing government purchases, increasing net taxes, or a combination of the two: • Could move the economy to potential output without the resulting inflation. • Causes a lower price level and a lower deficit or even a surplus. • Fiscal policy can be difficult to achieve: Proper execution depends on assumptions that may not hold. D. The Multiplier and the Time Horizon: • The steeper the short-run aggregate supply curve, the less impact a given shift of the aggregate demand curve has on real GDP and the more impact it has on the price level, so the smaller the spending multiplier. • At potential output, the spending multiplier in the long run is zero. II. Fiscal Policy Up to Stagflation of the 1970s A. Prior to the Great Depression: Classical economists, who advocated laissez-faire, believed that natural market forces, by way of flexible prices, wages, and interest rates, would move the economy toward potential GDP. There was no need for government intervention. B. The Great Depression and World War II • The Great Depression strained belief in the economy’s ability to correct itself, which was the view of the classical economist. • Keynesian theory challenged the classical view: o Prices and wages did not appear flexible enough to ensure the full employment of resources. o Prices and wages were relatively inflexible, or “sticky” in the downward direction. o Business expectations at times become so grim that even very low interest rates would not spur firms to invest all that consumers might save. • After the Great Depression, the use of discretionary fiscal policy was bolstered by: o The influence of Keynes General Theory o Impact of WWII on output and employment. o Pass of the Employment Act of 1946,giving the government the responsibility for promoting full employment and price stability. C. Automatic Stabilizers: The progressive federal income tax, unemployment insurance, and welfare spending smooth fluctuations in disposable income over the business cycle by: • Stimulating aggregate demand during recessions • Dampening aggregate demand during expansions D. From the Golden Age to Stagflation • 1960s Golden Age of fiscal policy: Increasing or decreasing aggregate demand to smooth economic fluctuations. • 1970s Stagflation (high inflation and high unemployment due to adverse supply shocks): o Fiscal policy is ill-suited to solving stagflation. o Increasing aggregate demand would increase inflation, and decreasing aggregate demand would increase unemployment. III. Limits on Fiscal Policy’s Effectiveness A. Fiscal Policy and the Natural Rate of Unemployment Natural rate of unemployment: The unemployment rate that occurs when the economy is producing its potential GDP. For discretionary policy purposes, officials must correctly estimate this natural rate. B. Lags in Fiscal Policy: Time required to approve and implement fiscal legislation can weaken the effectiveness of discretionary fiscal policy as a tool for macroeconomic stabilization. C. Discretionary Fiscal Policy and Permanent Income: Because consumers base their spending decisions on their permanent income, temporary tax changes are less effective. IV. Fiscal Policy Since 1980 A. Fiscal Policy During the 1980s: Automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal policy may inadvertently affect individual incentives to work, spend, save, and invest. B. 1990 to 2007: From Deficits to Surpluses Back to Deficits: Higher tax revenue and spending discipline created surpluses from 1998 to 2000. Recession and terrorist attacks in 2001 caused deficits to return. C. Fiscal Policy and the Great Recession: • The Financial Crisis and Aftermath: Housing market crisis led to a financial crisis and a deep recession. Tax cuts and increased spending caused ballooning deficits. • The Stimulus Package: The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act had an estimated cost of $787 billion. • Government Purchases and Real GDP: Government purchases declined and employment fell by 6.1 percent between December 2007 and December 2009. The federal deficit ballooned up to 1.4 trillion in 2009. This catastrophic event will require years of study to truly understand its impact. CHAPTER 12 - FEDERAL BUDGETS AND PUBLIC POLICY I. The Federal Budget Process A. Federal budget: A plan for government outlays and revenues for a specified period, usually a year. B. The Presidential and Congressional Roles • Early in the calendar year, the President submits The Budget of the United States Government to Congress. • Fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30. • The Economic Report of the President also submitted to Congress, reflects the President’s take on the economy and includes fiscal policy recommendations. C. The Congressional Role in the Budget Process • House and Senate rework the President’s budget until total outlays and expected revenues are agreed upon. This is a budget resolution, and it guides spending and revenue decisions. D. Problems with the Budget Process • Budget Deficit: When outlays exceed revenues, the budget is in deficit. A deficit stimulates aggregate demand in the short run but reduces national saving, which can impede economic growth in the long run. • Budget Surplus: When revenues exceed outlays, the budget is in surplus. A surplus dampens aggregate demand in the short run but boosts domestic saving, which can promote economic growth in the long run. • Continuing resolutions instead of budget decisions: agreements to allow agencies, in the absence of an approved budget, to spend at the rate of the previous year’s budget • Lengthy budget process: By the time Congress and the President actually come to a consensus, most economic crises are over. • Uncontrollable budget items: 75% of outlays are determined by existing laws. No separate capital budget: capital expenditures and operating expenditures are combined into a single budget. • Overly detailed budget: reduces the effectiveness of 8discretionary fiscal policy and is subject to political abuse. E. Possible Budget Reforms • Convert annual budget to biennial budget. • Simplify the budget, concentrating on major groupings and eliminating line items. • Sort federal spending into a capital budget and an operating budget. II. The Fiscal Impact of the Federal Budget A. Rationale for Deficits: • Justified for outlays that increase the economy’s productivity. • Justified during recessions when economic activity slows and unemployment rises. B. Budget Philosophies and Deficits • Annually balanced budget: Increase spending during expansions and reduce spending during recessions. Magnifies fluctuations in the business cycle. • Cyclically balanced budget: Budget deficits during recessions are covered by budget surpluses during expansions. • Functional finance: Ensures that the economy produces its potential output. C. Federal Deficits Since the Birth of the Nation: • Between 1789 and 1930 (the first full year of the Great Depression), the federal budget was in deficit 33% of the years. • Since the Great Depression, federal budgets have been in deficit 85% of the years. • During the 1980s, large tax cuts and higher defense spending contributed to relatively large deficits. • The 1990s saw the deficit disappear and turn into a surplus by 1998. • The recession of 2001, tax cuts, and increased federal spending turned surpluses into deficits. • Weak recovery and the cost of fighting the war against terrorism worsened the deficits by 2003 to 3.5% of GDP. • A stronger economy, along with a rising stock market, increased federal revenue enough to drop the deficit to about 1.2% of GDP in
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