Money Creation in the Modern Economy
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The Strategic Asset Allocation for Foreign Exchange Reserves Management in National Bank of Rwanda
THE STRATEGIC ASSET ALLOCATION FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES MANAGEMENT IN NATIONAL BANK OF RWANDA Dr. Satya K. Murty and Mr. Jotham Majyalibu School of Finance and Banking, Kigali - Rwanda 1. Background One of the complex businesses dedicated to the Central Banks is the management of foreign exchange reserves because of its requirements in terms of tight follow up of the global economy and financial markets trend and the challenges involved in its strategic asset allocation. “Formulating Strategic Asset Allocations (SAA) is of fundamental importance to investors, as numerous studies show that SAA is the primary determinant of performance in diversified portfolios”1 . Strategic asset allocation is well defined as the long-term allocation of capital to different asset classes such as bonds, equity, real estate and other investment opportunities with an aim of increasing the capital and making an appreciable and optimum return. The National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) herein referred as a case study, is the Central Bank of the Republic of Rwanda with the missions that include among others holding and managing the foreign exchange reserves2. To fulfill that, Central banks use to choose an appropriate strategic asset allocation of the foreign exchange reserves in agreement with the overall policy and corporate objectives. The chosen SAA impacts the overall performance and risk management over time. Basically, formation of a portfolio in the area of foreign exchange reserves investment is subject to decisions on the currency composition 1 Brinson, Gary,L. Randolph Hood and Beebower, Gilbert, (1986) “Determinants of Portfolio Performance”, Financial Analysts Journal, No 5 , pp. 39-44. -
Excess Reserves and the New Challenges for Monetary Policy
Economic Brief March 2010, EB10 -03 In recent months, the level of total reserves held by depository Excess reserves and institutions (DIs) in the United States has been consistently above $1 the New challenges trillion. Of this, required reserves have been less than 7 percent. In the for Monetary Policy five years prior to September 2008, total reserves fluctuated between $38 billion and $56 billion, and required reserves fluctuated between 80 percent and 99 percent of total reserves. Hence, the recent level By huberto M. Ennis and alexander L. Wolman of reserves represents a dramatic change from previous experience. There has been much debate about the implications of high levels of Interest on reserves allows the reserves for the economy and how monetary policy is conducted. In this Economic Brief , we bring attention to the consequences of these Federal Reserve to pursue an appropriate large reserve balances for the Federal Reserve’s ability to adjust its monetary policy even with a high level of policy stance in a timely manner. excess reserves. However, a banking system Several factors help to explain why today the level of reserves is so high flush with excess reserves can raise the risk of by historical standards. In September and October 2008, riskless market monetary policy getting behind the curve. interest rates fell at all maturities. Since these lower interest rates also represented a lower opportunity cost of holding reserves, DIs moved to holding higher levels of reserves. In addition, the weakened condition of many DIs and the financial system as a whole caused an increase in demand for the most liquid assets, such as reserves.The Fed accommo - dated this by increasing the supply in an effort to maintain its interest rate target.While demand-related factors played a role in the initial buildup of reserves (approximately $140 billion), the lion’s share of the increase resulted from an unprecedented expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet and the ability to pay interest on reserves (IOR). -
Short-Term Currency in Circulation Forecasting for Monetary Policy Purposes: the Case of Poland
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Koziński, Witold; Świst, Tomasz Article Short-term currency in circulation forecasting for monetary policy purposes: The case of Poland e-Finanse: Financial Internet Quarterly Provided in Cooperation with: University of Information Technology and Management, Rzeszów Suggested Citation: Koziński, Witold; Świst, Tomasz (2015) : Short-term currency in circulation forecasting for monetary policy purposes: The case of Poland, e-Finanse: Financial Internet Quarterly, ISSN 1734-039X, University of Information Technology and Management, Rzeszów, Vol. 11, Iss. 1, pp. 65-75, http://dx.doi.org/10.14636/1734-039X_11_1_007 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/147121 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. -
Large Excess Reserves and the Relationship Between Money and Prices by Huberto M
Economic Brief February 2019, EB19-02 Large Excess Reserves and the Relationship between Money and Prices By Huberto M. Ennis and Tim Sablik As a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s response to the financial crisis of 2007–08 and the Great Recession, the supply of reserves in the U.S. banking system increased dramatically. Historically, over long horizons, money and prices have been closely tied together, but over the past decade, prices have risen only modestly while base money (reserves plus currency) has grown sub- stantially. A macroeconomic model helps explain this behavior and suggests some potential limits to the Fed’s ability to increase the size of its balance sheet indefinitely while remaining consistent with its inflation-targeting policy. Macroeconomic models have long predicted a of reserves in the banking system in response tight long-run relationship between the supply to the financial crisis of 2007–08 and the Great of money in the economy and the overall price Recession. At the same time, prices grew at only level. Money in this context refers to the quantity 1.8 percent per year on average. This Economic of currency plus bank reserves, or what is some- Brief provides one explanation for this behavior times called the monetary base. As the monetary and examines whether there might be limits to base increases, prices also should increase on a the decoupling of money from prices. one-to-one basis. A Period of “Unconventional” Policy This theory also has been confirmed empirically. In response to the financial crisis of 2007–08, According to Robert Lucas of the University of the Fed employed a number of extraordinary Chicago, who received the Nobel Prize in Eco- measures to stabilize the financial system and nomics in 1995 in part for his work in this area, help the economy weather the Great Recession. -
Netw Rks Reading Essentials and Study Guide
NAME ________________________________________ DATE _______________ CLASS _________ Reading Essentials and Study Guide netw rks Chapter 16: Monetary Policy Lesson 2 Monetary Policy ESSENTIAL QUESTION How does the government promote the economic goals of price stability, full employment, and economic growth? Reading HELPDESK Academic Vocabulary explicit openly and clearly expressed Content Vocabulary fractional reserve system system requiring financial institutions to set aside a fraction of their deposits in the form of reserves legal reserves currency and deposits used to meet the reserve requirements reserve requirement formula used to compute the amount of a depository institution’s required reserves member bank reserve (MBR) reserves kept by member banks at the Fed to satisfy reserve requirements excess reserves financial institution’s cash, currency, and reserves not needed for reserve requirements; potential source of new loans monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve System to expand or contract the money supply to affect the cost and availability of credit interest rate the price of credit to a borrower easy money policy monetary policy resulting in lower interest rates and greater access to credit; associated with an expansion of the money supply tight money policy monetary policy resulting in higher interest rates and restricted access to credit; associated with a contraction of the money supply open market operations monetary policy in the form of U.S. Treasury bills, or notes, or bond sales and purchases by the Fed discount -
Forecasting the Money Multiplier: Implications for Money Stock Control and Economic Activity
Forecasting the Money Multiplier: Implications for Money Stock Control and Economic Activity R. W. HAFER, SCOTT E. HUN and CLEMENS J. M. KOOL ONE approach to controlling money stock growth based on the technique of Kalman filtering.3 Although is to adjust the level of the monetary base conditional the Box-Jenkins type of model has been used in pre- on projections ofthe money multiplier. That is, given a vious studies toforecast the Ml multiplier, this study is desired level for next period’s money stock and a pre- the first to employ the Kalsnan filtering approach to diction of what the level of the money multiplier next tlae problen_i. period will be, the level of the adjusted baseneeded to The second purpose of this study is to rise the multi- achieve the desired money stock is determined re- plier forecasts in a simulation experiment that imple- sidually. For such a control procedure to function ments the money control procedure cited above. properly, the monetary authorities must be able to Given monthly money multiplier forecasts from each predict movements in the multiplier with some of the forecasting methods, along with predetermined, accuracy. a hypothetical Ml growth targets, monthly and quarter- This article focuses, first, oma the problem of predict- ly Ml growth rates are simulated for the 1980—82 ing moveanents in the multiplier. Two n_iodels’ capa- period. bilities in forecasting ti_ic Ml money multiplier from Finally, the importance of reduced volatility of the January 1980 to Decen_iber 1982 are compared. One quarterly Ml growtla is examined in another simula- procedure is based on the time series models of Box 2 tion experiment. -
It's BAAACK! Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap
IT’S BAAACK! JAPAN’S SLUMP AND THE RETURN OF THE LIQUIDITY TRAP In the early years of macroeconomics as a discipline, the liquidity trap - that awkward condition in which monetary policy loses its grip because the nominal interest rate is essentially zero, in which the quantity of money becomes irrelevant because money and bonds are essentially perfect substitutes - played a central role. Hicks (1937), in introducing both the IS-LM model and the liquidity trap, identified the assumption that monetary policy was ineffective, rather than the assumed downward inflexibility of prices, as the central difference between “Mr. Keynes and the classics”. It has often been pointed out that the Alice-in-Wonderland character of early Keynesianism, with its paradoxes of thrift, widow's cruses, and so on, depended on the explicit or implicit assumption of an accommodative monetary policy; it has less often been pointed out that in the late 1930s and early 1940s it seemed quite natural to assume that money was irrelevant at the margin. After all, at the end of the 30s interest rates were hard up against the zero constraint: the average rate on Treasury bills during 1940 was 0.014 percent. Since then, however, the liquidity trap has steadily receded both as a memory and as a subject of economic research. Partly this is because in the generally inflationary decades after World War II nominal interest rates stayed comfortably above zero, and central banks therefore no longer found themselves “pushing on a string”. Also, the experience of the 30s itself was reinterpreted, most notably by Friedman and Schwartz (1963); emphasizing broad aggregates rather than interest rates or monetary base, they argued in effect that the Depression was caused by monetary contraction, that the Fed could have prevented it, and implicitly that even after the great slump a sufficiently aggressive monetary expansion could have reversed it. -
Harvard Kennedy School Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government Study Group, February 28, 2019
1 Harvard Kennedy School Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government Study Group, February 28, 2019 MMT (Modern Monetary Theory): What Is It and Can It Help? Paul Sheard, M-RCBG Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School ([email protected]) What Is It? MMT is an approach to understanding/analyzing monetary and fiscal operations, and their economic and economic policy implications, that focuses on the fact that governments create money when they run a budget deficit (so they do not have to borrow in order to spend and cannot “run out” of money) and that pays close attention to the balance sheet mechanics of monetary and fiscal operations. Can It Help? Yes, because at a time in which the developed world appears to be “running out” of conventional monetary and fiscal policy ammunition, MMT casts a more optimistic and less constraining light on the ability of governments to stimulate aggregate demand and prevent deflation. Adopting an MMT lens, rather than being blinkered by the current conceptual and institutional orthodoxy, provides a much easier segue into the coordination of monetary and fiscal policy responses that will be needed in the next major economic downturn. Some context and background: - The current macroeconomic policy framework is based on a clear distinction between monetary and fiscal policy and assigns the primary role for “macroeconomic stabilization” (full employment and price stability and latterly usually financial stability) to an independent, technocratic central bank, which uses a “flexible inflation-targeting” framework. - Ten years after the Global Financial Crisis and Great Recession, major central banks are far from having been able to re-stock their monetary policy “ammunition,” government debt levels are high, and there is much hand- wringing about central banks being “the only game in town” and concern about how, from this starting point, central banks and fiscal authorities will be able to cope with another serious downturn. -
Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System∗
Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System Adi Sunderam Harvard Business School [email protected] June 2012 Abstract Many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the mid- 2000s focus on money demand. This paper asks whether the short-term liabilities of the shadow banking system behave like money. We first present a simple model where households demand money services, which are supplied by three types of claims: de- posits, Treasury bills, and asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP). The model provides predictions for the price and quantity dynamics of these claims, as well as the behavior of the banking system (in terms of issuance) and the monetary authority (in terms of open market operations). Consistent with the model, the empirical evidence suggests that the shadow banking system does respond to money demand. An extrapolation of our estimates would suggest that heightened money demand could explain up to approximately 1/2 of the growth of ABCP in the mid-2000s. I thank Sergey Chernenko, Darrell Duffi e, Robin Greenwood, Sam Hanson, Morgan Ricks, David Scharf- stein, Andrei Shleifer, Jeremy Stein, and participants at the Federal Reserve Board Shadow Banking work- shop for helpful comments and suggestions. 1 Introduction Many explanations for the rapid growth of the shadow banking system in the years before the financial crisis focus on money demand.1 These explanations argue that the shadow banking system grew in order to meet rising demand for “money like”claims —safe, liquid, short-term investments — from institutional investors and nonfinancial firms. In doing so, they build on the long literature, starting with Diamond and Dybvig (1983) and Gorton and Pennacchi (1990), arguing that providing liquidity services through demandable deposits is a key function of banks. -
A Primer on Modern Monetary Theory
2021 A Primer on Modern Monetary Theory Steven Globerman fraserinstitute.org Contents Executive Summary / i 1. Introducing Modern Monetary Theory / 1 2. Implementing MMT / 4 3. Has Canada Adopted MMT? / 10 4. Proposed Economic and Social Justifications for MMT / 17 5. MMT and Inflation / 23 Concluding Comments / 27 References / 29 About the author / 33 Acknowledgments / 33 Publishing information / 34 Supporting the Fraser Institute / 35 Purpose, funding, and independence / 35 About the Fraser Institute / 36 Editorial Advisory Board / 37 fraserinstitute.org fraserinstitute.org Executive Summary Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is a policy model for funding govern- ment spending. While MMT is not new, it has recently received wide- spread attention, particularly as government spending has increased dramatically in response to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis and concerns grow about how to pay for this increased spending. The essential message of MMT is that there is no financial constraint on government spending as long as a country is a sovereign issuer of cur- rency and does not tie the value of its currency to another currency. Both Canada and the US are examples of countries that are sovereign issuers of currency. In principle, being a sovereign issuer of currency endows the government with the ability to borrow money from the country’s cen- tral bank. The central bank can effectively credit the government’s bank account at the central bank for an unlimited amount of money without either charging the government interest or, indeed, demanding repayment of the government bonds the central bank has acquired. In 2020, the cen- tral banks in both Canada and the US bought a disproportionately large share of government bonds compared to previous years, which has led some observers to argue that the governments of Canada and the United States are practicing MMT. -
Chapter 11 - Fiscal Policy
MACROECONOMICS EXAM REVIEW CHAPTERS 11 THROUGH 16 AND 18 Key Terms and Concepts to Know CHAPTER 11 - FISCAL POLICY I. Theory of Fiscal Policy Fiscal Policy is the use of government purchases, transfer payments, taxes, and borrowing to affect macroeconomic variables such as real GDP, employment, the price level, and economic growth. A. Fiscal Policy Tools • Automatic stabilizers: Federal budget revenue and spending programs that automatically adjust with the ups and downs of the economy to stabilize disposable income. • Discretionary fiscal policy: Deliberate manipulation of government purchases, transfer payments, and taxes to promote macroeconomic goals like full employment, price stability, and economic growth. • Changes in Government Purchases: At any given price level, an increase in government purchases or transfer payments increases real GDP demanded. For a given price level, assuming only consumption varies with income: o Change in real GDP = change in government spending × 1 / (1 −MPC) other things constant. o Simple Spending Multiplier = 1 / (1 − MPC) • Changes in Net Taxes: A decrease (increase) in net taxes increases (decreases) disposable income at each level of real GDP, so consumption increases (decreases). The change in real GDP demanded is equal to the resulting shift of the aggregate expenditure line times the simple spending multiplier. o Change in real GDP = (−MPC × change in NT) × 1 / (1−MPC) or simplified, o Change in real GDP = change in NT × −MPC/(1−MPC) o Simple tax multiplier = −MPC / (1−MPC) B. Discretionary Fiscal Policy to Close a Recessionary Gap Expansionary fiscal policy, such as an increase in government purchases, a decrease in net taxes, or a combination of the two: • Could sufficiently increase aggregate demand to return the economy to its potential output. -
86-2 17-37.Pdf
Opinions expressedil'lthe/ nomic Review do not necessarily reflect the vie management of the Federal Reserve BankofSan Francisco, or of the Board of Governors the Feder~1 Reserve System. The FedetaIReserve Bank ofSari Fraricisco's Economic Review is published quarterly by the Bank's Research and Public Information Department under the supervision of John L. Scadding, SeniorVice Presidentand Director of Research. The publication is edited by Gregory 1. Tong, with the assistance of Karen Rusk (editorial) and William Rosenthal (graphics). For free <copies ofthis and otherFederal Reserve. publications, write or phone the Public InfofIllation Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, P.O. Box 7702, San Francisco, California 94120. Phone (415) 974-3234. 2 Ramon Moreno· The traditional critique of the "real bills" doctrine argues that the price level may be unstable in a monetary regime without a central bank and a market-determined money supply. Hong Kong's experience sug gests this problem may not arise in a small open economy. In our century, it is generally assumed that mone proposed that the money supply and inflation could tary control exerted by central banks is necessary to successfully be controlled by the market, without prevent excessive money creation and to achieve central bank control ofthe monetary base, as long as price stability. More recently, in the 1970s, this banks limited their credit to "satisfy the needs of assumption is evident in policymakers' concern that trade". financial innovations have eroded monetary con The real bills doctrine was severely criticized on trols. In particular, the proliferation of market the beliefthat it could lead to instability in the price created substitutes for money not directly under the level.