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Climate Change Printed By: Hämeen Kirjapaino Oy, Tampere

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Climate Change Printed By: Hämeen Kirjapaino Oy, Tampere Finland’s Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework ConventiononClimateChange NationalCommunicationundertheUnitedNationsFramework Fourth Finland’s Finland’s Fourth National Communication Ministry of the Environment PO Box 35, under the United Nations FI–00023 GOVERNMENT, FINLAND Framework Convention on 951–731–360–8 (volume) 951–731–361–6 (pdf) Climate Change Printed by: Hämeen Kirjapaino Oy, Tampere Finland’s Fourth National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Committee for Preparing the Fourth National Communication Mirja Kosonen, Statistics Finland (Chair 10.9.–31.12.2004) Riitta Pipatti, Statistics Finland (Chair 1.1.2005–) Juha Turkki, Ministry of Trade and Industry Risto Saari, Ministry of Transport and Communications Heikki Granholm, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry Annu Jylhä-Pyykönen, Ministry of Education Alec Estlander, Finnish Environment Institute Juha Kuusi, Ministry for Foreign Affairs Nina Grandell, Ministry of Finance Annika Lindblom, Ministry of the Environment Leo Kolttola, Statistics Finland Kai Skoglund, Statistics Finland (Secretary) Scientific Editor: Esko Kuusisto, Finnish Environment Institute Photos: Arto Timperi page 71 Climate Change Communications Programme page 223 Erkki Oksanen/METLA page 154 Friends of the Earth Finland page 225 Futureimagebank pages 35, 68, 71, 171, 173, 175, 233 Juha Hatakka page 213 Kimmo Skoglund pages 65, 205 Markku Nurmi pages 190, 196 Ministry for Foreign Affairs pages 181, 186, 187, 188, 189, 191 Ministry of Transport and Communications pages 59, 99, 169 VAPO pages 89, 121 Vattenfall pages 121, 158, 162 Esko Kuusisto all the other photos Cover photo: Lentokuva Vallas Oy Layout: Riikka Turunen ISBN 951–731–360–8 (volume) ISBN 951–731–361–6 (pdf) Printed by: Hämeen Kirjapaino Oy, Tampere 2006 Contents Foreword . 8 1 Executive summary. 11 1.1 National circumstances . 11 1.2 Greenhouse gas inventory information . 14 1.3 Policies and measures . 16 1.3.1 Policy-making process . 16 1.3.2 Sectoral policies and measures . 17 1.3.2.1 Energy sector . 17 1.3.2.2 Other sectors . 18 1.3.3 Taxation and subsidies . 20 1.3.4Research and development. 21 1.3.5 Economic impacts . 21 1.4Projections and assessment of policies and measures. 22 1.4.1 ‘With Measures’ Scenario . 22 1.4.1.1 Starting points and assumptions . 22 1.4.1.2 Total consumption of energy and electricity . 23 1.4.1.3 Greenhouse gas emissions . 24 1.4.2 ‘With Additional Measures’ Scenario . 25 1.4.3 Methodology . 27 1.5 Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability . 28 1.5.1 Observed climate changes and scenarios . 28 1.5.2 Impacts of climate change . 29 1.5.3 Adaptation and vulnerability. 29 1.6 Financial resources and transfer of technology. 30 1.7 Research and systematic observation. 32 1.8 Education, training and public awareness . 33 2 National circumstances. 35 2.1 Geographic profile. 35 2.2 Climate profile . 37 2.3 Population profile . 38 2.4Government structure . 38 2.5 Education and research . 41 2.6 Building stock and urban structure. 42 2.7 Economic profile . 43 2.8 Industry . 46 2.9 Energy . 47 2.9.1 Finland’s energy supply . 47 2.9.2 Energy use in industry . 51 2.9.3 Energy use for space heating . 52 2.9.4Recent changes on the energy market . 53 2.9.5 Energy taxes and subsidies . 55 2.10 Transportation. 56 2.10.1 Transport network . 56 2.10.2 Freight transport . 57 2.10.3 Passenger transport . 59 2.10.4Telecommunications. 60 2.11 Agriculture. 61 2.12 Forests. 62 2.12.1 A land of forests. 62 2.12.2 Forest resources and management . 63 2.12.3 National forest programme . 65 2.12.4Forest protection . 65 2.13 Waste . 66 2.13.1 Waste generation and treatment . 66 2.13.2 National waste planning. 68 3 Greenhouse gas inventory information. 71 3.1 National system for greenhouse gas inventories. 71 3.2 Summary of emissions . 73 3.3 Emissions by sector . 76 3.3.1 Energy . 76 3.3.1 Industrial processes . 78 3.3.3 Solvent and other product use . 79 3.3.4Agriculture . 80 3.3.5 Land use, land-use change and forestry . 81 3.3.6 Waste. 83 3.3.7 International bunkers . 84 3.3.8 NMVOC, CO, NOx and SO2 emissions . 85 3.4Quality management and uncertainty . 86 4 Policies and measures. 89 4.1 Policy-making process . 89 4.1.1 Global level . 89 4.1.2 EU level . 90 4.1.3 National level . 90 4.1.4 Regional level . 92 4.1.5 Municipal level . 92 4.1.6 Role of NGOs, industry and other interest groups . 93 4.2 Sectoral policies and measures. 93 4.2.1 National Energy and Climate Strategy. 93 4.2.2 Energy . 94 4.2.2.1 Policies and measures in the ‘With Measures’ Scenario. 94 4.2.2.2 Policies and measures in the ‘With Additional Measures’ Scenario . 98 4.2.3 Transport . 99 4.2.4 Industrial processes . 103 4.2.5 Agriculture . 103 4.2.6 Land use, land-use change and forestry . 104 4.2.7 Waste management . 107 4.2.8 International bunkers . 108 4.3 Taxation and subsidies. 108 4.4 Other cross-sectional policies and measures. 111 4.5 Research and development . 112 4.6 Use of the Kyoto mechanisms . 114 4.7 Capacity-building, education, training and awareness-raising . 114 4.8 Effect of policies and measures on longer-term trends . 115 4.9 Policies and measures no longer in place . 115 4.10 Interactions of domestic policies and measures with EU legislation . 116 4.11 Non-GHG mitigation benefits . 117 4.12 Economic impacts . 117 4.12.1 Impacts on the economy as a whole . 117 4.12.2 Impacts on government finances . 117 5 Projections and assessment of policies and measures . 121 5.1 Assessment of the previous scenarios . 121 5.2 With measures scenario for 2005–2020. 123 5.2.1 Scenario formulation . 123 5.2.2 The starting points of the WM Scenario . 123 5.2.3 Total consumption of energy . 126 5.2.4Total consumption and production of electricity. 128 5.2.5 Greenhouse gas emissions . 129 5.2.5.1 Summary of total emissions . 129 5.2.5.2 Energy-based carbon dioxide emissions 131 5.2.5.3 Other CO2emissions . 132 5.2.5.4Methane . 132 5.2.5.5 Nitrous oxide . 133 5.2.5.6 F-gases. 134 5.2.7 Considerations of the sensitivity of the WM Scenario . 134 5.2.8 Comparison of WM and BAU Scenarios . 136 5.3 With additional measures scenario for 2005–2025 . 137 5.3.1 The starting points of the WAM Scenario . 137 5.3.1.1 Energy . 138 5.3.1.2 Other sectors . 139 5.3.2 Summary of emissions . 140 5.4Methodology. 142 6 Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability . 147 6.1 Finland’s climate – how is it changing? . 147 6.1.1 Observed changes . 147 6.1.2 Scenarios . 148 6.2 Impacts of climate change. 150 6.2.1 Agriculture . ..
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