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Estimating Human Trafficking Into the United States: Development of a Methodology Final Phase Two Report Author(S): Heather J

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Estimating Human Trafficking Into the United States: Development of a Methodology Final Phase Two Report Author(S): Heather J The author(s) shown below used Federal funds provided by the U.S. Department of Justice and prepared the following final report: Document Title: Estimating Human Trafficking Into The United States: Development of a Methodology Final Phase Two Report Author(s): Heather J. Clawson Document No.: 221035 Date Received: December 2007 Award Number: 2004-BF-016, Task 178 This report has not been published by the U.S. Department of Justice. To provide better customer service, NCJRS has made this Federally- funded grant final report available electronically in addition to traditional paper copies. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. ESTIMATING HUMAN TRAFFICKING INTO THE UNITED STATES: DEVELOPMENT OF A METHODOLOGY FINAL PHASE TWO REPORT November 2007 Submitted to: U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice 810 7th Street, NW Washington, DC 20531 Submitted by: ICF International 10530 Rosehaven Street, Suite 400 Fairfax, VA 22030 This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. AUTHORS: Heather J. Clawson ICF International Company Mary Layne Consultant This document was prepared by Caliber, An ICF International Company, under task order 2004TO178 from the National Institute of Justice (NIJ), U.S. Department of Justice. The findings and recommendations presented in this report are those of the authors and do not represent the official positions or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice or National Institute of Justice. The National Institute of Justice is a component of the Office of Justice Programs, which also includes the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, Bureau of Justice Assistance, Bureau of Justice Statistics, and the Office for Victims of Crime. This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1. INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................1 2. LITERATURE REVIEW....................................................................................................3 2.1 Reports on the Prevalence of Human Trafficking into the United States................4 2.2 International Research Studies.................................................................................7 2.3 Barriers to Estimating the Prevalence of Human Trafficking .................................8 3. QUALITATIVE METHODS ............................................................................................12 3.1 Review of Prosecuted Legal Cases........................................................................13 3.2 Feedback from the TAG and Government Experts ...............................................14 3.3 Site Visit.................................................................................................................15 4. QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATION METHODS................................................................16 4.1 Trafficking Zones...................................................................................................16 4.2 Statistical Methods.................................................................................................19 5. DATA SOURCES .............................................................................................................19 5.1 Source Zone Model................................................................................................21 5.2 Transit Zone Model................................................................................................29 6. FINDINGS………...………………………………………………………………..........33 7. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS....................................................................39 7.1 Summary of Source Zone Model...........................................................................39 7.2 Summary of Transit Zone Model...........................................................................39 7.3 Data Gaps and Other Limitations ..........................................................................39 7.3 Recommendations..................................................................................................40 REFERENCES APPENDIX A: STATISTICAL METHODS APPENDIX B: COMPOSITE INDICES FOR ALL COUNTRIES APPENDIX C: TRAFFICKING MULTIPLIERS APPENDIX D: TRAFFICKING VICTIMS PROTECTION ACT ICF International i This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. TABLE OF EXHIBITS Page EXHIBIT 1: TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS REPORT YEARLY ESTIMATES OF WORLDWIDE HUMAN TRAFFICKING...............................................................4 EXHIBIT 2: TRAFFICKING ZONES .........................................................................................17 EXHIBIT 3: PROPOSED DATA AND AVAILABILITY FOR EACH TRAFFICKING ZONE.......................................................................................................................20 EXHIBIT 4: GINI INDEX............................................................................................................22 EXHIBIT 5: FEMALE INDICES USED TO DEFINE COUNTRY-SPECIFIC RISK...............23 EXHIBIT 6: MALE INDICES USED TO DEFINE COUNTRY-SPECIFIC RISK ...................24 EXHIBIT 7: FEMALE INDICES TO DEFINE COUNTRY-SPECIFIC RISK: SELECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICAN COUNTRIES..................24 EXHIBIT 8: FEMALE INDICES TO DEFINE COUNTRY-SPECIFIC RISK: EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ...............................................................25 EXHIBIT 9: FEMALE POPULATION BY AGE CATEGORIES (2005) SELECTED CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICAN COUNTRIES.......................................26 EXHIBIT 10: FEMALE POPULATION BY AGE CATEGORIES (2005) 15 EASTERN EUROPOEAN COUNTRIES................................................................................26 EXHIBIT 11: ACTUAL AND NATURAL POPULATION FOR ALBANIA............................28 EXHIBIT 12: TRANSIT ZONE JOURNEY, FEMALES TRAFFICKED FOR SEX ................30 EXHIBIT 13: TRAFFICKING INFORMATION FOR 22 EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES.........................................................................................................32 EXHIBIT 14: PERCENTAGE OF TRAFFICKED WOMEN WHO ARE SENT TO THE UNITED STATES FROM 22 EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES...............33 EXHIBIT 15A:FEMALES AT RISK OF BEING TRAFFICKED FOR SEX IN SOURCE ZONE FROM EIGHT CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICAN COUNTRIES.........................................................................................................34 EXHIBIT 15B:95% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FEMALES AT RISK OF BEING TRAFFICKED FOR SEX IN SOURCE ZONE FROM EIGHT CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICAN COUNTRIES.........................................................................................................34 EXHIBIT 16: FEMALES POSSIBLY TRAFFICKED FOR SEX FROM EIGHT CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICAN COUNTRIES ..........................................................35 EXHIBIT 17: FEMALES TRAFFICKED FOR SEX ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BORDER FROM EIGHT CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICAN COUNTRIES..............36 EXHIBIT 18A:FEMALES AT RISK OF BEING TRAFFICKED FOR SEX IN SOURCE ZONE FROM 22 EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ..............................................37 EXHIBIT 18B:95% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FEMALES AT RISK OF BEING TRAFFICKED FOR SEX IN SOURCE ZONE FROM 22 EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES...................................37 EXHIBIT 19: FEMALES POSSIBLY TRAFFICKED FOR SEX FROM 22 EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES .................................................................................38 EXHIBIT 20: FEMALES TRAFFICKED FOR SEX TO THE UNITED STATES FROM 15 FROM 15 EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ..............................................87 ICF International ii This document is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice. This report has not been published by the Department. Opinions or points of view expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. ESTIMATING HUMAN TRAFFICKING INTO THE UNITED STATES: DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS 1. INTRODUCTION This report combines the findings from two phases of research. Phase one research created and detailed methods to estimate the number of females and males trafficked for the purposes of sexual and labor exploitation from eight countries in Central and South America (Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela) into the United States at the southwest
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