05.10.2020-11.10.2020 • No: 275

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POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE CHINA-INDIA BORDER DISPUTE The border dispute that started on May 5, conflicts among themselves without turn- of both and New since it 2020, along the Line of Actual Control ing them into a border war. The reasons may escalate many regional issues. For (LAC) on the border of China and India, for this can be found in the global geo- China, a potential border war with India the two most populous countries in the economic environment in general and the may not only endanger security and sta- world, cause the existing tensions in Bei- current trade-economic relations and stra- bility in the Tibet region but also foment jing- relations to increase tegic priorities of China and India in par- China-Bhutan border disputes. For in- again. In particular, on June 15, 2020, a ticular. stance, it is no coincidence that the news clash took place between soldiers of the From a geo-economic perspective, the of the death of an ethnic Tibetan soldier two sides in the Galwan river valley in the global economic recession, especially in serving in the Indian army emerged dur- Ladakh region. The deaths of 20 Indian the last few years, slowed the export-led ing the China-India border conflict. Tak- and 43 Chinese soldiers in the conflict is economic growth of both China and In- ing into account that today around the first such bloodshed in the last 45 dia. Beijing strived to focus more on eco- 100,000 ethnic Tibetans live in India and years in the border region. As the situa- nomic activities after the China-United that there are soldiers of the Tibetan tion developed, in September 2020, after States trade war, which resulted in a trade origin serving in the Indian army, Beijing a series of meetings between high-level agreement for the benefit of Washington, may also face the Tibet issue in a possible Chinese and Indian officials on border is- whereas New Delhi accelerated its efforts Sino-Indian war. For India, it is to be ex- sues, the parties reached a consensus on to save millions of people from poverty pected that a possible border war with reducing tensions in the border area. Ac- by providing economic growth. In addi- China would escalate the border disputes cording to the agreement, the countries tion, it is obvious that the negative im- with Pakistan and Nepal, both of which were supposed to withdraw their military pacts of the coronavirus outbreak, which have good relations with China. For ex- units. However, we can see that they have began in January 2020 and then turned ample, in June 2020, when the China-In- not withdrawn troops and military equip- into a global pandemic, slowed the econ- dia border dispute became more acute, ment they had previously shipped to the omies of China and India further. It can be similar border conflicts between India region. For five months, the border dis- stated that the aforementioned negative and Nepal emerged. On the other hand, a pute has been threatening not only China- effects of the geo-economic environment possible border war between China and India relations but also peace and stability also constitute an obstacle to the escala- India, which are the members of the in the Asia-Pacific region, and it is uncer- tion of the bilateral border dispute. Under Shanghai Cooperation Organization, may tain how long it will last. Although it is such adverse economic conditions, a pos- harm this regional security organization. unlikely for the China-India border dis- sible full-fledged border war between In summary, China-India border conflicts pute to turn into a potential large-scale Beijing and New Delhi may damage both have become more frequent in recent war, it does not seem easy to ensure peace countries. Moreover, the fact that a poten- years, with Beijing and New Delhi and tranquility in the border area in the tial border war is likely to break out in the strengthening efforts to increase their near term. Himalayas, which is the world’s largest global and regional influence as two sig- Looking at the historical background, we mountain range with harsh climatic con- nificant economic powers. From this per- can see that the endless border dispute be- ditions that could bring a significant eco- spective, it seems unlikely that the border tween China and India dates back to the nomic burden to these countries. This en- dispute between China and India, which second half of the 20th century. The bor- vironment caused by both ongoing eco- regard each other as rivals, can be easily der dispute between China (People’s Re- nomic issues and coronavirus reduces the resolved. It is clear, however, that China public of China) established in 1949 and possibility that the two countries would and India will not engage in a major war, India established in 1947 led to the China- go into a large-scale war. at least in the short term. Nevertheless, it India Border War in 1962, along with the From the perspective of current China-In- is noteworthy that in recent years, both Tibet issue. After the war, the countries dia trade and economic relations, the es- countries have increased various trans- returned to their pre-war borders. The on- calation of the border dispute between the going sovereignty conflicts over the bor- parties into a potential border war would portation infrastructure projects in dis- der area of more than 120,000 square km be to the detriment of both countries. As puted areas under their control. In partic- led to various border disputes in 1967, it is known, China is India’s largest trade ular, Beijing’s project to channel the wa- 1975, 1987, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, and partner, whereas India is China’s ninth- ter of the Yarlung Tsangpo river, which 2020. Therefore, the unresolved border largest trade partner in the world and ma- flows from Tibet to India through China issues between China and India, which jor trade partner in South Asia. In 2019, and then into the Indian Ocean via the have a common border of approximately bilateral trade between China and India Ganges, to East Turkistan, may cause new 2,000 km, continue to be the most sensi- totaled $85.49 billion. In particular, tensions between the two countries in the tive issue in the relations between the two China’s exports to India were $68.37 bil- coming period. Therefore, it can be stated countries. It is noteworthy that Beijing lion, while imports from India stood at that the future of border disputes between and New Delhi refused to accept Wash- $17.13 billion. As of December 2019, China and India at a certain level will de- ington’s offer to mediate in various dia- Chinese investment in India reached $8 pend on the political-economic and stra- logue and consultation mechanisms billion. tegic priorities of Beijing and New Delhi, launched since May 2020, which shows A potential border war may cause addi- as well as on the global geo-economic and that the countries want to resolve border tional problems for the strategic interests geopolitical environment.

Written by Omirbek Hanayi, Eurasian Research Institute, Kazakhstan

Politics, Foreign Affairs, and Security Economy, Finance, and Energy Society and Culture  The presidents of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan,  During an online press briefing, Minister  The Embassy of Kazakhstan in Mongolia and Uzbekistan made a joint of Agriculture of Kazakhstan Saparkhan hosted the event titled “The Creative statement on the events in Kyrgyzstan. Omarov announced that funding of the Evening of Abai and al-Farabi” dedicated The Central Asian leaders expressed seri- agrarian science in the next three years to the anniversaries of the two thinkers. ous concern over the situation in the broth- Local officials, diplomats, journalists and erly nation, expressing hope that all Kyr- will be increased by 2.3 times up to 50.4 billion tenge (117.2 million US dollar). To prominent figures of the Kazakh diaspora gyz political parties and civic circles will listened to Abai’s songs and poems and make necessary efforts to ensure peace promote the development of the agrarian watched documentaries about the lives and and tranquility and to resolve problematic science and training of specialists, the works of Abai and al-Farabi. During the issues in accordance with the country’s ministry opened 22 knowledge outreach event, the book “Abai’s Book of Words” constitution. They also stressed that Kyr- and consultation centers. It is also planned translated into Mongolian was presented gyzstan’s wellbeing was an important fac- to develop 36 research and technology (, 05.10.2020). tor of regional security and sustainable de- programs in 10 priority research directions  The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and velopment of Central Asia (Akorda, (Kazinform, 06.10.2020). Prevention (CDC) delivered $8,356 worth 09.10.2020).  Business Ombudsman of Kyrgyzstan of laboratory supplies that will be used to  President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Robin Ord-Smith expressed deep concern conduct tests for COVID-19 to Tajiki- Tokayev visited the peacekeeping training in connection with the wave of criminal stan’s State Scientific Research Institute of center in the Almaty region to observe the activity that the business community had Preventive Medicine. The donation is part first ever complex peacekeeping exercise faced in the aftermath of the events in the of the $1.69 million assistance package of the country’s armed forces. The exer- country. Entrepreneurs and investors be- pledged by the CDC to support Tajikistan cise involved more than 1,000 military came subject to attacks, robberies and in combating the COVID-19 epidemic. personnel and over 100 units of combat The CDC has been supporting the minis- and special equipment. President Tokayev looting of property. In Ord-Smith’s view, such actions violate the fundamental prin- tries of health in Central Asia since the be- also examined the model peacekeeping ginning of the outbreak by organizing base and the classes designed for engineer- ciples of Kyrgyzstan’s legislation on the rule of law and the right of private prop- trainings and providing technical assis- ing, linguistic, tactical and medical train- tance (U.S. Embassy in Tajikistan, ing (Akorda, 08.10.2020). erty, while causing colossal damage to the 05.10.2020).  During his official visit to Hungary, Min- economy and the international image of the country (Kabar, 09.10.2020).  The OSCE Project Coordinator in Uzbek- ister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan istan handed over ultraviolet antibacterial Mukhtar Tileuberdi held talks with his  According to the press service of Uzbeki- system equipment to the Scientific Re- counterpart Peter Szijjarto. The parties stan’s leather industry association Oz- search Institute of Virology of the Minis- discussed ways to develop bilateral coop- charmsanoat, in 2020, the geography of try of Health of Uzbekistan as part of the eration and interaction between regional exports of footwear produced in the coun- pandemic-related humanitarian aid. The structures, in particular the Eurasian Eco- try expanded. Such countries as the United equipment will be used in the healthcare nomic Union (EAEU), the European Un- States, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, system to prevent the spread of COVID-19 ion, the Visegrad Four, and the Central Latvia and Moldova opened their markets in the country. In particular, it will help to Asian Five. Tileuberdi also visited the Eu- for Uzbek footwear products. According disinfect air and surfaces at hospitals, ropean office of the Cooperation Council to customs statistics, since the beginning which can protect medical personnel from of Turkic Speaking States in and of 2020, 23.7 million pairs of shoes worth contracting novel coronavirus when carry- got acquainted with its activities (MFA of ing out their duties (OSCE, 06.10.2020). Kazakhstan, 09.10.2020). $27.98 million were exported, which is a 91% increase compared to the same period  Canada will assist Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz-  U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political of 2019 (UzDaily, 10.10.2020). stan and Tajikistan to cope with the Affairs David Hale, Foreign Minister of COVID-19 crisis by contributing 750,000 Afghanistan Mohammed Haneef Atmar  According to the forecast of the European and Foreign Minister of Turkmenistan Ra- Bank for Reconstruction and Develop- Canadian dollars to the International Fed- shid Meredov held the first trilateral meet- ment, the GDP of Azerbaijan will decrease eration of Red Cross and Red Crescent So- by 3% in 2020, but will grow by 2.5% in cieties (IFRC). This contribution is com- ing via teleconference. The parties dis- prised of a C$250,000 assistance package cussed mutual issues of concern including 2021. The country is expected to return to to each of the three countries aimed at al- political, security, and economic matters. the level of its 2019 GDP per capita by leviating the devastating impact of the They agreed to intensify cooperation on 2025 or earlier. At the same time, the com- regional security, economic growth, and pandemic on the most vulnerable popula- bined assets of the Central Bank and the tion groups. The IFRC will provide social development, and called on the interna- State Oil Fund reached nearly $50 billion, tional community to support the Afghan support and mental health services, as well which is more than the projected 2020 as training for volunteers (Asia-Plus, peace negotiations (U.S. Department of GDP (AzerNews, 07.10.2020). State, 09.10.2020). 09.10.2020).  The EAEU member states expect to  The foreign ministers of Russia, Armenia  During the seventh meeting of the and Azerbaijan held trilateral consulta- achieve nearly full self-sufficiency in ma- -Turkey joint commission on tour- tions in and reached an agree- jor agricultural products, except for fruits, ism, the two countries agreed to jointly de- ment on a ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh. in 2021. Currently, domestic production velop and promote tourism products, in- The conflicting parties agreed to stop hos- fully satisfies the EAEU’s demand for ce- cluding on international platforms. In par- tilities with the humanitarian aim of ex- reals, sugar, vegetable oils, pork, eggs, and ticular, the parties will create common changing prisoners of war and other cap- mutton, while self-sufficiency in potatoes tourist packages and four-season recrea- tured persons as well as to exchange bod- and beef is within reach. At the same time, tion and rehabilitation resorts. They also ies of victims. According to the document, the self-sufficiency rate for fruits will re- agreed to apply common quality standards Armenia and Azerbaijan also agreed to main low (45%) in the near future. It is ex- at tourist sites and interact in the field of begin practical talks on the peace settle- pected that the EAEU’s overall output of conference industry and business tourism ment with the mediation of the OSCE agricultural products will increase by (Ukrinform, 09.10.2020). Minsk Group co-chairs (TASS, 12.2% in 2021 in comparison with 2018  UNICEF and the government of Turkmen- 10.10.2020). (BelTA, 09.10.2020). istan signed a five-year plan to procure  The OSCE organized a workshop in Tash- vaccines and vaccine related equipment  Under the agreement on political coopera- worth $83 million. High-quality vaccines kent on the role of the parliament in the tion, free trade, and strategic partnership oversight of the security sector for 20 will protect Turkmen children from 14 signed between Ukraine and the United vaccine preventable diseases and will en- members of the Oliy Majlis of Uzbekistan. Kingdom, about 98% of all Ukrainian Participants were briefed on the main ac- sure the continuity of the immunization tors and principles of good security sector goods will have preferential access to the program in Turkmenistan. Turkmenistan governance, as well as concrete tools for British market. In particular, quotas for also expressed its willingness to partici- parliamentary oversight. They discussed some goods will grow from 13% to 20%, pate in the global COVAX facility, which existing mechanisms for the security sec- which will stimulate Ukrainian exports. is aimed at cooperation with vaccine man- tor oversight in the context of Uzbeki- The UK plans to liberalize access for the ufacturers to provide countries with equi- stan’s 2016 Law on Parliamentary Over- remaining 2% of Ukraine-produced goods table access to licensed vaccines against sight (OSCE, 06.10.2020). from 2023 (Ukrinform, 09.10.2020). COVID-19 (Parahat.info, 05.10.2020).

Prepared by Dauren Aben and Kanat Makhanov