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Potential Consequences of the China-India Border

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Potential Consequences of the China-India Border 05.10.2020-11.10.2020 • No: 275 7 POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE CHINA-INDIA BORDER DISPUTE The border dispute that started on May 5, conflicts among themselves without turn- of both Beijing and New Delhi since it 2020, along the Line of Actual Control ing them into a border war. The reasons may escalate many regional issues. For (LAC) on the border of China and India, for this can be found in the global geo- China, a potential border war with India the two most populous countries in the economic environment in general and the may not only endanger security and sta- world, cause the existing tensions in Bei- current trade-economic relations and stra- bility in the Tibet region but also foment jing-New Delhi relations to increase tegic priorities of China and India in par- China-Bhutan border disputes. For in- again. In particular, on June 15, 2020, a ticular. stance, it is no coincidence that the news clash took place between soldiers of the From a geo-economic perspective, the of the death of an ethnic Tibetan soldier two sides in the Galwan river valley in the global economic recession, especially in serving in the Indian army emerged dur- Ladakh region. The deaths of 20 Indian the last few years, slowed the export-led ing the China-India border conflict. Tak- and 43 Chinese soldiers in the conflict is economic growth of both China and In- ing into account that today around the first such bloodshed in the last 45 dia. Beijing strived to focus more on eco- 100,000 ethnic Tibetans live in India and years in the border region. As the situa- nomic activities after the China-United that there are soldiers of the Tibetan tion developed, in September 2020, after States trade war, which resulted in a trade origin serving in the Indian army, Beijing a series of meetings between high-level agreement for the benefit of Washington, may also face the Tibet issue in a possible Chinese and Indian officials on border is- whereas New Delhi accelerated its efforts Sino-Indian war. For India, it is to be ex- sues, the parties reached a consensus on to save millions of people from poverty pected that a possible border war with reducing tensions in the border area. Ac- by providing economic growth. In addi- China would escalate the border disputes cording to the agreement, the countries tion, it is obvious that the negative im- with Pakistan and Nepal, both of which were supposed to withdraw their military pacts of the coronavirus outbreak, which have good relations with China. For ex- units. However, we can see that they have began in January 2020 and then turned ample, in June 2020, when the China-In- not withdrawn troops and military equip- into a global pandemic, slowed the econ- dia border dispute became more acute, ment they had previously shipped to the omies of China and India further. It can be similar border conflicts between India region. For five months, the border dis- stated that the aforementioned negative and Nepal emerged. On the other hand, a pute has been threatening not only China- effects of the geo-economic environment possible border war between China and India relations but also peace and stability also constitute an obstacle to the escala- India, which are the members of the in the Asia-Pacific region, and it is uncer- tion of the bilateral border dispute. Under Shanghai Cooperation Organization, may tain how long it will last. Although it is such adverse economic conditions, a pos- harm this regional security organization. unlikely for the China-India border dis- sible full-fledged border war between In summary, China-India border conflicts pute to turn into a potential large-scale Beijing and New Delhi may damage both have become more frequent in recent war, it does not seem easy to ensure peace countries. Moreover, the fact that a poten- years, with Beijing and New Delhi and tranquility in the border area in the tial border war is likely to break out in the strengthening efforts to increase their near term. Himalayas, which is the world’s largest global and regional influence as two sig- Looking at the historical background, we mountain range with harsh climatic con- nificant economic powers. From this per- can see that the endless border dispute be- ditions that could bring a significant eco- spective, it seems unlikely that the border tween China and India dates back to the nomic burden to these countries. This en- dispute between China and India, which second half of the 20th century. The bor- vironment caused by both ongoing eco- regard each other as rivals, can be easily der dispute between China (People’s Re- nomic issues and coronavirus reduces the resolved. It is clear, however, that China public of China) established in 1949 and possibility that the two countries would and India will not engage in a major war, India established in 1947 led to the China- go into a large-scale war. at least in the short term. Nevertheless, it India Border War in 1962, along with the From the perspective of current China-In- is noteworthy that in recent years, both Tibet issue. After the war, the countries dia trade and economic relations, the es- countries have increased various trans- returned to their pre-war borders. The on- calation of the border dispute between the going sovereignty conflicts over the bor- parties into a potential border war would portation infrastructure projects in dis- der area of more than 120,000 square km be to the detriment of both countries. As puted areas under their control. In partic- led to various border disputes in 1967, it is known, China is India’s largest trade ular, Beijing’s project to channel the wa- 1975, 1987, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, and partner, whereas India is China’s ninth- ter of the Yarlung Tsangpo river, which 2020. Therefore, the unresolved border largest trade partner in the world and ma- flows from Tibet to India through China issues between China and India, which jor trade partner in South Asia. In 2019, and then into the Indian Ocean via the have a common border of approximately bilateral trade between China and India Ganges, to East Turkistan, may cause new 2,000 km, continue to be the most sensi- totaled $85.49 billion. In particular, tensions between the two countries in the tive issue in the relations between the two China’s exports to India were $68.37 bil- coming period. Therefore, it can be stated countries. It is noteworthy that Beijing lion, while imports from India stood at that the future of border disputes between and New Delhi refused to accept Wash- $17.13 billion. As of December 2019, China and India at a certain level will de- ington’s offer to mediate in various dia- Chinese investment in India reached $8 pend on the political-economic and stra- logue and consultation mechanisms billion. tegic priorities of Beijing and New Delhi, launched since May 2020, which shows A potential border war may cause addi- as well as on the global geo-economic and that the countries want to resolve border tional problems for the strategic interests geopolitical environment. Written by Omirbek Hanayi, Eurasian Research Institute, Kazakhstan Politics, Foreign Affairs, and Security Economy, Finance, and Energy Society and Culture The presidents of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, During an online press briefing, Minister The Embassy of Kazakhstan in Mongolia Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan made a joint of Agriculture of Kazakhstan Saparkhan hosted the event titled “The Creative statement on the events in Kyrgyzstan. Omarov announced that funding of the Evening of Abai and al-Farabi” dedicated The Central Asian leaders expressed seri- agrarian science in the next three years to the anniversaries of the two thinkers. ous concern over the situation in the broth- Local officials, diplomats, journalists and erly nation, expressing hope that all Kyr- will be increased by 2.3 times up to 50.4 billion tenge (117.2 million US dollar). To prominent figures of the Kazakh diaspora gyz political parties and civic circles will listened to Abai’s songs and poems and make necessary efforts to ensure peace promote the development of the agrarian watched documentaries about the lives and and tranquility and to resolve problematic science and training of specialists, the works of Abai and al-Farabi. During the issues in accordance with the country’s ministry opened 22 knowledge outreach event, the book “Abai’s Book of Words” constitution. They also stressed that Kyr- and consultation centers. It is also planned translated into Mongolian was presented gyzstan’s wellbeing was an important fac- to develop 36 research and technology (Kazinform, 05.10.2020). tor of regional security and sustainable de- programs in 10 priority research directions The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and velopment of Central Asia (Akorda, (Kazinform, 06.10.2020). Prevention (CDC) delivered $8,356 worth 09.10.2020). Business Ombudsman of Kyrgyzstan of laboratory supplies that will be used to President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Robin Ord-Smith expressed deep concern conduct tests for COVID-19 to Tajiki- Tokayev visited the peacekeeping training in connection with the wave of criminal stan’s State Scientific Research Institute of center in the Almaty region to observe the activity that the business community had Preventive Medicine. The donation is part first ever complex peacekeeping exercise faced in the aftermath of the events in the of the $1.69 million assistance package of the country’s armed forces. The exer- country. Entrepreneurs and investors be- pledged by the CDC to support Tajikistan cise involved more than 1,000 military came subject to attacks, robberies and in combating the COVID-19 epidemic.
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