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REGIONAL TOURISM MODELLING: the South West Tapestry REGIONAL TOURISM MODELLING THE SOUTH WEST TAPESTRY By Paul Walker, Diane Lee, Russell Goddard, Gail Kelly and Jan Pedersen REGIONAL TOURISM MODELLING: The South West Tapestry TECHNICAL REPORTS The technical report series present data and its analysis, meta-studies and conceptual studies, and are considered to be of value to industry, government and researchers. Unlike the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre’s Monograph series, these reports have not been subjected to an external peer review process. As such, the scientific accuracy and merit of the research reported here is the responsibility of the authors, who should be contacted for clarification of any content. Author contact details are at the back of this report. EDITORS Prof Chris Cooper University of Queensland Editor-in-Chief Prof Terry De Lacy Sustainable Tourism CRC Chief Executive Prof Leo Jago Sustainable Tourism CRC Director of Research National Library of Australia Cataloguing in Publication Data Regional tourism modelling : the South West Tapestry. Bibliography. ISBN 1 920704 29 9. 1. Tourism - Western Australia - Bunbury Region - Forecasting. 2. Tourism - Western Australia - Bunbury Region - Evaluation. I. Walker, P. A. (Paul Anthony). II. Cooperative Research Centre for Sustainable Tourism. 338.47919412 Copyright © CRC for Sustainable Tourism Pty Ltd 2005 All rights reserved. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of study, research, criticism or review as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part of this book may be reproduced by any process without written permission from the publisher. Any enquiries should be directed to Brad Cox, Communications Manager ([email protected]) or Trish O’Connor, Publishing Manager ([email protected]). Acknowledgements The Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre, an Australian Government initiative, funded this research. ii REGIONAL TOURISM MODELLING: The South West Tapestry CONTENTS SUMMARY _____________________________________________________________________________ v CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION ____________________________________________________________ 1 SCOPING THE FUTURE OF TOURISM __________________________________________________________ 1 A SYSTEMS VIEW OF TOURISM _____________________________________________________________ 2 BUILDING A SYSTEMS UNDERSTANDING OF TOURISM____________________________________________ 2 LEARNING AND MODELS __________________________________________________________________ 4 CHAPTER 2 TAPESTRY TOURISM FUTURES MODEL _____________________________________ 5 A FUTURES MODEL: WHAT IT IS DESIGNED TO DO ______________________________________________ 5 A FUTURES MODEL: WHAT IT CANNOT DO ____________________________________________________ 5 MODEL STRUCTURE _____________________________________________________________________ 5 DESTINATION LIFE CYCLES – UNDERPINNING THE MODEL ________________________________________ 6 OVERVIEW OF MODEL COMPONENTS ________________________________________________________ 8 OPERATIONALISING THE MODEL ____________________________________________________________ 8 DATA INPUT ___________________________________________________________________________ 9 CHAPTER 3 MODEL VIEWS ____________________________________________________________ 13 VISITOR NUMBER TYPE AND FUTURE GROWTH RATES__________________________________________ 13 ACCOMMODATION SUPPLY AND DEMAND ___________________________________________________ 14 EMPLOYMENT _________________________________________________________________________ 16 TRAINING ____________________________________________________________________________ 16 VISITOR SPENDING _____________________________________________________________________ 17 Shire Profile ________________________________________________________________________ 18 Tourism Themes _____________________________________________________________________ 18 Police Resources ____________________________________________________________________ 19 Bunbury Port Impact _________________________________________________________________ 20 Events_____________________________________________________________________________ 20 Data Process _______________________________________________________________________ 21 Data results ________________________________________________________________________ 21 CHAPTER 4 LIMITATIONS OF THE MODEL _____________________________________________ 24 DATA LIMITATIONS _____________________________________________________________________ 24 MODEL VIEW LIMITATIONS_______________________________________________________________ 24 CHAPTER 5 SCENARIO EVALUATION __________________________________________________ 25 DEVELOPING SCENARIOS ________________________________________________________________ 25 APPLICATION__________________________________________________________________________ 25 EXAMPLE SCENARIO ____________________________________________________________________ 25 CHAPTER 6 FUTURE WORK____________________________________________________________ 29 APPENDIX A: TAPESTRY TOURISM QUESTIONNAIRES __________________________________ 30 REFERENCES _________________________________________________________________________ 42 AUTHORS_____________________________________________________________________________ 43 iii REGIONAL TOURISM MODELLING: The South West Tapestry LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Systems diagram for Collie ________________________________________________________ 3 Figure 2: Causal diagram: factors affecting overnight visitors _____________________________________ 4 Figure 3: Conceptual model________________________________________________________________ 6 Figure 4: Conceptual model________________________________________________________________ 7 Figure 5: Life Cycle model (after Butler 1980) _________________________________________________ 7 Figure 6: Life Cycle Model for multiple market segments ________________________________________ 8 Figure 7: Data input _____________________________________________________________________ 10 Figure 8: Population profile _______________________________________________________________ 13 Figure 9: Visitor demand and mix __________________________________________________________ 14 Figure 10: Accommodation supply __________________________________________________________ 15 Figure 11: Accommodation demand _________________________________________________________ 15 Figure12: Employment ___________________________________________________________________ 16 Figure 13: Training ______________________________________________________________________ 17 Figure 14: Visitor spending ________________________________________________________________ 17 Figure 15: Shire profiles __________________________________________________________________ 18 Figure 16: Tourism themes ________________________________________________________________ 18 Figure 17: Police resourcing _______________________________________________________________ 19 Figure 18: Bunbury Port impact_____________________________________________________________ 20 Figure 19: Event economic impact___________________________________________________________ 20 Figure 20: Main activities (no. of visits) _____________________________________________________ 221 Figure 21: Satisfaction levels_______________________________________________________________ 23 Figure 22: Total tapestry region visitors ______________________________________________________ 26 Figure 23: Intrastate visitor numbers _________________________________________________________ 26 Figure 24: Hotel occupancy rates____________________________________________________________ 27 Figure 25: Hotel investment________________________________________________________________ 27 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Data for TTFM__________________________________________________________________ 11 Table 2: Repeat visitors __________________________________________________________________ 21 Table 3: Market segments ________________________________________________________________ 22 Table 4: Spending patterns________________________________________________________________ 23 iv REGIONAL TOURISM MODELLING: The South West Tapestry Summary The Tapestry Tourism Region, in the southwest of Western Australia, is relatively under-developed in tourism terms. The region is focussed on the cluster of local government areas including Bunbury, Harvey, Collie, Dardanup, Donnybrook-Balingup and Capel – an area midway between Perth and the popular Margaret River wine-growing region, and with a population of some 75,000, 3,813 businesses and 218 tourism businesses. This Tapestry Tourism Futures Project investigated future tourism opportunities by developing a greater understanding of tourism as a system and developing a computer model for developing and testing tourism strategies. This model is called the Tapestry Tourism Futures Model (TTFM). This study, funded by the Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre (STCRC), established a prototype framework to assist tourism regions throughout Australia and develop and test future tourism options. The framework consists of procedures and tools to guide future planning and scenario testing. The project has extensive support, both through personnel and financial assistance, of the six Local Government Authorities within the Tapestry Region, the WA Tourism Commission South West regional office, the South West Development Commission, other key government and private sector agencies, businesses and the tourism industry. Funding was also provided by the Department
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