National Situation Report As of 5:30 A.M

National Situation Report As of 5:30 a.m. (EDT) Thursday, September 6, 2012

This information is published as a public service by the FEMA National Watch Center (NWC). Information presented is considered public information and may be distributed or copied. For questions or comments, contact the NWC at fema-nwc- [email protected]. Media inquiries should be directed to FEMA News Desk (available 24/7): [email protected].

Significant National Weather: See http://weather.gov/ for the latest information.

Northeast A cold front extending from the Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern Plains will move slowly eastward to the Northeast Coast, producing showers and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to western Pennsylvania and much of western and northern New York State today and moving into the Eastern Seaboard by Friday. Along the coast, increasing swells from distant Hurricane Leslie will result in higher surf on the beaches through the end of the week and into the weekend.

South Over Texas, Oklahoma, and into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, very hot weather is expected to continue for a few more days before a cold front brings badly needed relief this weekend. Daytime highs of 100-105 degrees are expected for Oklahoma and much of central and northern Texas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s, along with oppressive levels of humidity, are likely for Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi, resulting in heat advisories for portions of these states. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible across the Southern Plains; a few storms could be severe from the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into Kansas.

Midwest Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the Dakotas, Nebraska and Kansas. A relatively strong cold front will bring a surge of cooler and drier Canadian air into much of the Northern Plains, Midwest, and into the Ohio Valley. Daytime highs in the 70s, along with lows in the 40s and 50s, should be commonplace.

West Some scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected over the inter-mountain West, especially northern Montana. Lingering monsoonal moisture will also produce afternoon and evening thunderstorms over southern Arizona, and in the Southern Rockies. (NOAA/NWS, SPC and HPC)

Isaac Response & Recovery Operations Disaster related activities in response to Hurricane Isaac continue to focus on Recovery operations in support of disaster survivors and the states of Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Individual and Public Assistance Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) are currently under way or have been completed throughout the impacted region.

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue over the Florida Panhandle and coastal areas of Mississippi and Alabama. Moderate-to-major river flooding continues across parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Most rivers have crested or are cresting and are forecast to recede over the next few days. As of 6:00 PM EDT on September 5, The Pearl River has receded below the Major Flood Stage and is predicted to gradually continue dropping and transition from moderate to minor flooding by this weekend. Parish officials continue to monitor; however, they no longer expect major flooding to occur along the basin.

On Tuesday, September 5, 2012 at 3:00 pm EDT, the Department of Energy reported 13,884 customers remained without power in the State of Louisiana. Service to East Plaquemines Parish, which is currently inaccessible, is expected to be restored by September 20, 2012 and customers with damaged homes or meters will be restored as repairs are completed.

Joint Individual Assistance (IA) and Public Assistance (PA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) are continuing in Mississippi, Florida and Louisiana.

No evacuations remain in effect in Mississippi; however, evaucations remain in place for portions of Plaquemines and St Tammany parishes in Louisiana. At 1:00 am this morning, there were 19 shelters open in Louisiana with 505 occupants; one shelter was reported open in Mississippi with 11 occupants.

FEMA Headquarters The National Response Coordination Center (NRCC) deactivated on September 5 at 5:00 p.m. EDT. The National Watch Center (NWC) is operating at an Enhanced Watch for Isaac Response/Recovery (24/7) consisting of FEMA Recovery, Logistics, External Affairs, Reports Distribution Unit Lead, and Cost Unit Lead (day only).

Two National Incident Management Assistance Teams (IMATs) remain deployed to Louisiana and one National IMAT is deployed to Mississippi. An Incident Support Base (ISB) is operational in Camp Beauregard, LA.

Mobile Emergency Response Support (MERS) equipment and personnel are deployed to Louisiana and Mississippi. Twenty-three Mobile Office Communications Vehicles (MCOVs) are deployed to the region—sixteen in Louisiana and seven in Mississippi. Eight additional MCOVs are en route to LA and expected to arrive today.

FEMA Region IV The Regional Response Coordination Center (RRCC) is partially activated to Level III, day shift only. Operations are transitioning from the RRCC to a Joint Field Office in Mississippi on Sept 6. A FEMA Region IV IMAT is deployed to the JFO in Tallahassee, Florida. An Interim Operating Facility (IOF) is operational for FEMA-4081-DR-MS in Pearl, MS. FEMA Liaison Officers remain deployed to the Alabama and Mississippi EOCs. Four Disaster Recovery Centers are operational in the State of Mississippi. State Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs) remain activated in Florida and Mississippi.

FEMA Region VI The RRCC is partially activated to Level III, day shift only. Operations are transitioning from the RRCC to the JFO in Louisiana by late today. A Region VI IMAT is deployed to the Interim Operating

Facility (IOF) in Baton Rouge, LA, which is operational for FEMA-4080-DR-LA. In support of recovery operations in Louisiana, FEMA Region VII is deploying an IMAT to Plaquemines Parish and a FEMA Region IX is deploying an IMAT to St John the Baptist Parish Both IMATs are expected to report no later than 8:00 am EDT today. Five Disaster Recovery Centers (DRCs) are operational in the State of Louisiana, additional DRCs are expected to be opened. The Louisiana State EOC remains fully activated. (FEMA HQ, FEMA Regions IV & VI, NOAA)

Tropical Activity: Atlantic: Area 1 (Invest 90L): (As of 2:00 a.m. EDT, September 6) A low pressure system located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, east of the mouth of the Mississippi river, is producing shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly to the south and southwest of the center of circulation. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for development of this disturbance as it moves slowly south-southwestward over the next couple of days. This system has a MEDIUM chance (50%) of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

Hurricane Leslie (Cat 1): (as 5:00 a.m. EDT, September 6) Located about 440 miles south-southeast of bermuda, Leslie is drifting toward the north near 2 mph. A northward or north- northwestward drift is expected through Friday night. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Leslie is a Category One Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Leslie is a large tropical cyclone; hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles. Swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast from central Florida northward, the Northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands for the next several days.

Hurricane Michael (Cat 3): (as 5:00 a.m. EDT, September 6) Michael is the first Category 3 Hurricane of the year. Located about 1,020 miles west-southwest of the Azores, Michael is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph. A turn to the north and north-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph with higher gusts. Michael is a Category Three Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast today, with some gradual weakening possible by Friday. Michael is a small but powerful tropical cyclone. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles.

Eastern Pacific: Tropical cyclone activity is not expected in the next 48 hours.

Central Pacific: No tropical cyclones are expected through Friday evening.

Western Pacific: No tropical activity is threatening U.S. territories. (NHC, CPHC, & JTWC)

National Fire Activity as of Wednesday, September 5, 2012:  National Preparedness Level: 3  Initial attack activity: Light (116 new fires)  New large fires: 1  Large fires contained: 3  Uncontained large fires: 20  Area Command Teams Committed: 1  NIMOs committed: 1  Type 1 IMTs committed: 7  Type 2 IMTs committed: 12

MAFFS: Two MAFFS C-130 aircraft and support personnel from the 302nd Airlift Wing, Colorado Springs (US Air Force Reserve) are supporting wildland fire suppression operations out of Boise, ID. Two MAFFS from the 146th Airlift Wing, Channel Islands (California Air National Guard) are supporting wildland fire suppression operations out of Sacramento, CA. (NIFC DCE/NICC IMSR)

Wildfire Activity - FEMA Region IX Williams Fire (Los Angeles County, California) The fire is located near the East Fork San Gabriel Canyon. There have been 4,180 (+546) acres burned with 44% (+20) containment. The estimated date of full containment is September 13, 2012. One injury has been reported and 76 structures remain threatened. Evacuations of Camp Williams, East Fork Campground, and San Gabriel remain in effect and one ARC shelter was open overnight with five (-1) occupants. State and Federal Response The California State EOC remains at normal operations and FEMA Region IX is at Watch/Steady State. (Region IX, NIFC, and InciWeb)

Wildfire Activity - FEMA Region X Halstead Fire (Custer County, Idaho) The fire is located 3 miles north of Stanley, Idaho (pop. 63), in rugged terrain. Acres burned increased to 140,366 (+4,587) and the containment remains at 7%. The estimated date of full containment is October 16, 2012. Custer County has lifted the mandatory evacuation order for Yankee Fork; residents in the area are now under a 48 hour pre-evacuation notice. Four injuries have been reported, some structures remain threatened and no structures have been lost. State and Federal Response The Idaho State EOC remains at Phase I (Partial Activation) and FEMA Region X remains at Watch/Steady State. (Region X, NIFC, and InciWeb)

Space Weather: Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor, with radio blackouts reaching the R1 level and occurring. No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours. (NOAA SWPC)

Earthquake Activity: Costa Rica On September 5 at 6:42 a.m. EDT, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake struck the western coast of Costa Rica, 94 miles west of the capital city of San José at a depth of 25.4 miles. Costa Rica’s Institute of Volcanology Observatory and Seismology (OVSICORI) has reported over 25 smaller aftershocks. Tsunami warnings were issued for several areas; the final warning for Costa Rica, Panama, Nicaragua, and Chile was cancelled at 1:07 p.m. EDT without damages reported.

Media is reporting several houses heavily damaged in the town of Hojanche, 6 miles northeast of the epicenter, and minor structural damage was reported in San Jose. The earthquake triggered a landslide, which blocked a main highway between San Jose and Puntarenas. Several areas near the epicenter are reportedly without power. Costa Rica officials reported one fatality due to the earthquake, and no major injuries. Damage assessment efforts are ongoing. (USGS, OVSICORI, PTWC, and WCATWC)

Declaration Activity: Louisiana FEMA-4080-DR-Louisiana; Amendment No. 6, effective September 5, 2012, amends the Major Disaster Declaration to include Tangipahoa Parish for Individual Assistance (already designated for debris removal and emergency protective measures (Categories A and B) including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance Program. (FEMA HQ)

Number of Counties Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments Region State Event IA/PA Requested Ongoing Completed Start - End

Hurricane Isaac IV AL PA 2 0 0 9/6 - TBD August 26, 2012 & continuing

Hurricane Isaac IA 3 1 2 8/31 - TBD IV FL August 26, 2012 & continuing PA 7 6 1 8/31 - TBD

Hurricane Isaac IA 11 (+2) 7 4 9/2 - TBD IV MS August 26, 2012 & continuing PA 12 (+9) 8 4 9/2 - TBD

Hurricane Isaac IA 25 (+2) 22 15 8/31 - TBD VI LA August 26, 2012 & continuing PA 21 (+7) 21 0 8/31 - TBD

Regional Response Coordination Center Activation Levels

Region RRCC Regional Watch Center Watch/Steady State Maynard MOC (24/7) II Watch/Steady State 24/7 III Watch/Steady State 24/7 IV Level III (Partial Activation) 24/7 V Watch/Steady State 24/7 VI Level III (Partial Activation 24/7) Denton MOC (24/7) VII Level III (Monitoring 24/7) 24/7 VIII Watch/Steady State Denver MOC (24/7) IX Watch/Steady State 24/7 X Watch/Steady State Bothell MOC (24/7)

Incident Management Assistance Teams

National Teams

Team Status Team Status Team Status BLUE WHITE RED LA MS LA (East) (Central) (West) Regional Teams

Team Status Team Status Team Status

Region I Region V Region IX-1 LA

Region II Region VI-1 LA Region IX-2

Region III VA Region VI-2 OK Region X

Region IV-1 NC (DNC) Region VII LA

Region IV-2 FL Region VIII

= Available / Mission Capable = Assigned/Deployed = Available / Partially Mission Capable = Out of Service