2018 Climate Summary
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Portugal – an Atlantic Extreme Weather Lab
Portugal – an Atlantic extreme weather lab Nuno Moreira ([email protected]) 6th HIGH-LEVEL INDUSTRY-SCIENCE-GOVERNMENT DIALOGUE ON ATLANTIC INTERACTIONS ALL-ATLANTIC SUMMIT ON INNOVATION FOR SUSTAINABLE MARINE DEVELOPMENT AND THE BLUE ECONOMY: FOSTERING ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD 7th October 2020 Portugal in the track of extreme extra-tropical storms Spatial distribution of positions where rapid cyclogenesis reach their minimum central pressure ECMWF ERA 40 (1958-2000) Events per DJFM season: Source: Trigo, I., 2006: Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Climate Dynamics volume 26, pages127–143. Portugal in the track of extreme extra-tropical storms Spatial distribution of positions where rapid cyclogenesis reach their minimum central pressure Azores and mainland Portugal On average: 1 rapid cyclogenesis every 1 or 2 wet seasons ECMWF ERA 40 (1958-2000) Events per DJFM season: Source: Trigo, I., 2006: Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Climate Dynamics volume 26, pages127–143. … affected by sting jets of extra-tropical storms… Example of a rapid cyclogenesis with a sting jet over mainland 00:00 UTC, 23 Dec 2009 Source: Pinto, P. and Belo-Pereira, M., 2020: Damaging Convective and Non-Convective Winds in Southwestern Iberia during Windstorm Xola. Atmosphere, 11(7), 692. … affected by sting jets of extra-tropical storms… Example of a rapid cyclogenesis with a sting jet over mainland Maximum wind gusts: Official station 140 km/h Private station 00:00 UTC, 23 Dec 2009 203 km/h (in the most affected area) Source: Pinto, P. -
Visitor Profile
` VISITOR PROFILE How did visitors get here? Q3 '12 Q3 '11 (%) change 2012 YTD 2011 YTD (%) change Air 80,852 79,917 1.17% 187,657 191,203 -1.85% Cruise 179,124 187,240 -4.33% 343,194 348,951 -1.65% Yacht 153 177 -13.56% 4,387 2,817 55.73% Total 260,129 267,334 -2.70% 535,238 542,971 -1.42% Total visitors to Bermuda during the third quarter of 2012 fell 2.7% compared to the same quarter in 2011. A total of 260,129 visitors arrived on the island during this period compared to 267,334 in 2011. This decline was mainly due to an 8% decline in the number of cruise ship calls for this period. While all other modes of arrival to the island were down, air arrivals were up by over 1%, despite of the threat of Hurricane Leslie in the month of September, which resulted in several cancelled flights. Air arrivals totaled 80,852 visitors in the third quarter, up from 79,917 visitors during the same period in 2011. The majority of visitors continue to originate from the United States, remaining constant with 77% of all visitors. Canada experienced strong growth in the third quarter, with an increase of almost 14%, their market share gaining by one percentage point and now representing 9% of all visitors to the island. Visitors from the Rest of the World also increased in the third quarter by over 11%, while visitors from the United Kingdom and Europe both declined by 2% and 11% respectively. -
Lecture 15 Hurricane Structure
MET 200 Lecture 15 Hurricanes Last Lecture: Atmospheric Optics Structure and Climatology The amazing variety of optical phenomena observed in the atmosphere can be explained by four physical mechanisms. • What is the structure or anatomy of a hurricane? • How to build a hurricane? - hurricane energy • Hurricane climatology - when and where Hurricane Katrina • Scattering • Reflection • Refraction • Diffraction 1 2 Colorado Flood Damage Hurricanes: Useful Websites http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu http://www.nhc.noaa.gov Hurricane Alberto Hurricanes are much broader than they are tall. 3 4 Hurricane Raymond Hurricane Raymond 5 6 Hurricane Raymond Hurricane Raymond 7 8 Hurricane Raymond: wind shear Typhoon Francisco 9 10 Typhoon Francisco Typhoon Francisco 11 12 Typhoon Francisco Typhoon Francisco 13 14 Typhoon Lekima Typhoon Lekima 15 16 Typhoon Lekima Hurricane Priscilla 17 18 Hurricane Priscilla Hurricanes are Tropical Cyclones Hurricanes are a member of a family of cyclones called Tropical Cyclones. West of the dateline these storms are called Typhoons. In India and Australia they are called simply Cyclones. 19 20 Hurricane Isaac: August 2012 Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones • Low pressure systems that don’t have fronts • Cyclonic winds (counter clockwise in Northern Hemisphere) • Anticyclonic outflow (clockwise in NH) at upper levels • Warm at their center or core • Wind speeds decrease with height • Symmetric structure about clear "eye" • Latent heat from condensation in clouds primary energy source • Form over warm tropical and subtropical oceans NASA VIIRS Day-Night Band 21 22 • Differences between hurricanes and midlatitude storms: Differences between hurricanes and midlatitude storms: – energy source (latent heat vs temperature gradients) - Winter storms have cold and warm fronts (asymmetric). -
Reply to Referees
Reply to referees - WCD-2020-54 - "A numerical study to investigate the roles of former hurricane Leslie, orography, and evaporative cooling in the 2018 Aude heavy precipitation event" We thank the referees for their thoughtful comments, which we have addressed below. Comments from referees are in italics 5 and our response is in upright font. Parts added to the manuscript are in blue and deleted parts are in red. Lines refer to the lines of the preprint. Reply to anonymous referee #1 Generic comments This study investigates the mesoscale dynamics of the heavy precipitation event affecting the Aude region during 10 the heavy precipitation event of the 14-15 October 2018. After a (too ?) long and detailed description, the roles of former hurricane Leslie, the orography, and evaporative cooling are examined. The interaction of the incoming trough and surface cyclone with the orography helped the convective activity focusing west of the quasi-stationary cold front and downwind of the Albera Massif. Leslie’s remnants are involved in the formation of the second cold front CF2 and contributed to the supply of low-level conditionally unstable air in the second part of the event. 15 However, the grater contribution to the precipitation over the Aude department mainly originated from moisture coming from the Mediterranean Sea. Finally evaporative cooling did not seem to play a substantial role in the dynamics but only in the control of the total simulated amount of precip. The paper is well written and clearly structured however I feel it sometimes goes too long in the description of the dynamics of the event in a dispropor- tionate way compared to the focus of the research. -
Development of a Model for Prediction of Solar Radiation
ENGINEERENGINEER - - Vol. Vol. XLVIII, XLVIII No., No. 03, 03 pp., pp. [19-25], [page 2015range], 2015 ©© TheThe Institution Institution of of Engineers, Engineers, Sri SriLanka Lanka Development of a Model for Prediction of Solar Radiation W. D. A. S. Wijayapala and D. H. K. Kushal Abstract: Power generation from renewable energy sources such as wind, mini-hydro, solar etc is becoming increasingly popular due to environmental concerns. However, it is not possible to predict the energy generation of solar power plants in advance. Hence the power system operator has no information about the tomorrow‟s possible energy availability from these non-dispatchable power plants. The outcome of this study enables the system operator to predict the possible energy generation from solar power plants based on the weather forecasts and provide the system operator with predictions on energy generation and capacity of solar power plants connected to the grid. The predictions will enable to prepare the dispatch schedules accordingly. In this study, the effect of the geographical and meteorological parameters for predicting daily global solar radiation at Sooriyawewa, Hambantota in Sri Lanka is investigated. A multiple linear regression was applied to explain the relationship among solar radiation and identified meteorological and geographical parameters such as cloud cover, sunshine duration, precipitation, open air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, gust speed and sine value of declination angle. Variables in these equations were used to estimate the global solar radiation. Values calculated/predicted from models were compared with the actual measurements to validate the model. Keywords : Solar Power, Solar Radiation, Prediction The most important usage of this model is that 1. -
Hurricane Helene Information from NHC Advisory 13, 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10, 2018 Helene Is Moving Toward the West-Northwest Near 16 Mph (26 Km/H)
eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Helene Information from NHC Advisory 13, 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10, 2018 Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through late Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the n orthwest and then toward the north-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today, and Helene is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) 105 mph Max Sustained Wind Position Relativ e to 375 mi W of the Southernmost Speed: (Cat 2 Land: Cabo Verde Islands Hurricane) Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 974 mb Coordinates: 14.6 N, 30.0 W Trop. Storm Force 105 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 285 degrees at 16 mph Est. Max Sustained n/a Winds Ex tent: Wind Speed: Forecast Summary Ï!D Trop Dep ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Helene moving west- northwestward followed by a turn toward the northwest and then toward the north-northwest on Wednesday or Thursday. To illustrate theÏ!S Trop uncertainty Storm in Ï!D Trop Dep !1 Helene’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind -field map (below right) in pale gray. Ï Ca t 1 Ï!S Trop Storm 2 ■ Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. -
The Rain in Portugal Ebook, Epub
THE RAIN IN PORTUGAL PDF, EPUB, EBOOK Billy Collins | 128 pages | 26 Jan 2017 | Pan MacMillan | 9781509834259 | English | London, United Kingdom The Rain in Portugal PDF Book It can still rain but exceptionally rare. Research Data Media Blog. Due to the topography of the island, you can find different climates on the island. Businesses need to continue their drive towards a zero-carbon future, while at the same time increasing the pace and scale of the transition, while governments need to increase the ambition of their national emissions reduction plans to ensure an enabling environment for rapid and widespread progress. Chaos Unleashed. From New York Times bestselling author and acclaimed videogame writer Drew Karpyshyn comes the third and final novel in an original epic fantasy trilogy for fans of Terry Anytime I can spend time with the words of Billy Collins, life is good. Inspired by Your Browsing History. Richly imagined, gothically spooky, and replete with the ingenious storytelling ability of a born novelist, The Good Thief introduces one of the most appealing young heroes in contemporary fiction and ratifies Hannah Tinti as one of our most exciting new Become a Member Start earning points for buying books! View Product. When I was young, August always brought such events to our doorstep. Sign in to Purchase Instantly. Later, the news clarified that this huge shadow cast across the British capital — some miles away — was in fact caused by the smoke and soot of the wildfires in Portugal, transported by the winds of Hurricane Ophelia. He lives in Florida with his wife Suzannah. -
Impact of Urbanization on Sunshine Duration from 1987 to 2016 in Hangzhou City, China
atmosphere Article Impact of Urbanization on Sunshine Duration from 1987 to 2016 in Hangzhou City, China Kai Jin 1,2,* , Peng Qin 1 , Chunxia Liu 1, Quanli Zong 1 and Shaoxia Wang 1,* 1 Qingdao Engineering Research Center for Rural Environment, College of Resources and Environment, Qingdao Agricultural University, Qingdao 266109, China; [email protected] (P.Q.); [email protected] (C.L.); [email protected] (Q.Z.) 2 State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Water and Soil Conservation, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China * Correspondence: [email protected] (K.J.); [email protected] (S.W.); Tel.: +86-150-6682-4968 (K.J.); +86-136-1642-9118 (S.W.) Abstract: Worldwide solar dimming from the 1960s to the 1980s has been widely recognized, but the occurrence of solar brightening since the late 1980s is still under debate—particularly in China. This study aims to properly examine the biases of urbanization in the observed sunshine duration series from 1987 to 2016 and explore the related driving factors based on five meteorological stations around Hangzhou City, China. The results inferred a weak and insignificant decreasing trend in annual mean sunshine duration (−0.09 h/d decade−1) from 1987 to 2016 in the Hangzhou region, indicating a solar dimming tendency. However, large differences in sunshine duration changes between rural, suburban, and urban stations were observed on the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, which can be attributed to the varied urbanization effects. Using rural stations as a baseline, we found evident urbanization effects on the annual mean sunshine duration series at urban and suburban stations—particularly in the period of 2002–2016. -
Variation in Surface Air Temperature of China During the 20Th Century
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 73 (2011) 2331–2344 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jastp Variation in surface air temperature of China during the 20th century Willie Soon a,n, Koushik Dutta b, David R. Legates c, Victor Velasco d, WeiJia Zhang e a Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA b Large Lakes Observatory, University of Minnesota-Duluth, Duluth, MN 55812, USA c College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USA d Departamento de Investigaciones Solares y Planetarias, Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Ciudad Universitaria, C.P. 04510, Mexico e Department of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China article info abstract Article history: The 20th century surface air temperature (SAT) records of China from various sources are analyzed Received 21 March 2011 using data which include the recently released Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project dataset. Two key Received in revised form features of the Chinese records are confirmed: (1) significant 1920s and 1940s warming in the 20 July 2011 temperature records, and (2) evidence for a persistent multidecadal modulation of the Chinese surface Accepted 25 July 2011 temperature records in co-variations with both incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere as Available online 3 August 2011 well as the modulated solar radiation reaching ground surface. New evidence is presented for this Keywords: Sun–climate link for the instrumental record from 1880 to 2002. Additionally, two non-local physical Total solar irradiance aspects of solar radiation-induced modulation of the Chinese SAT record are documented and Sunshine duration discussed. -
HURRICANE ISAAC (AL092018) 7–15 September 2018
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT HURRICANE ISAAC (AL092018) 7–15 September 2018 David A. Zelinsky National Hurricane Center 30 January 2019 SUOMI-NPP/VIIRS 1625 UTC 10 SEPTEMBER 2018 TRUE COLOR IMAGE OF ISAAC WHILE IT WAS A HURRICANE. IMAGE COURTESY OF NASA WORLDVIEW. Isaac was a category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) that formed over the east-central tropical Atlantic and moved westward. The cyclone weakened and passed through the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm, causing locally heavy rain and flooding. Hurricane Isaac 2 Hurricane Isaac 7–15 SEPTEMBER 2018 SYNOPTIC HISTORY Isaac developed from a tropical wave that moved off the west coast of Africa on 2 September. A broad area of low pressure was already present when the convectively active wave moved over the eastern Atlantic, and the low gradually consolidated over the next several days while the wave moved steadily westward. A concentrated burst of deep convection initiated late on 6 September and led to the formation of a well-defined center, marking the development of a tropical depression by 1200 UTC 7 September a little more than 600 n mi west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Weak steering flow caused the depression to move very little while moderate easterly wind shear prevented it from strengthening for the first 24 h following formation. The shear decreased the next morning, and the cyclone reached tropical-storm strength by 1200 UTC 8 September. The “best track” chart of Isaac’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. -
Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force RBC Proposal Form
Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force RBC Proposal Form [ ] Capital Adequacy (E) Task Force [ x ] Health RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Life RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Catastrophe Risk (E) Subgroup [ ] Investment RBC (E) Working Group [ ] SMI RBC (E) Subgroup [ ] C3 Phase II/ AG43 (E/A) Subgroup [ ] P/C RBC (E) Working Group [ ] Stress Testing (E) Subgroup DATE: 08/31/2020 FOR NAIC USE ONLY CONTACT PERSON: Crystal Brown Agenda Item # 2020-07-H TELEPHONE: 816-783-8146 Year 2021 EMAIL ADDRESS: [email protected] DISPOSITION [ x ] ADOPTED WG 10/29/20 & TF 11/19/20 ON BEHALF OF: Health RBC (E) Working Group [ ] REJECTED NAME: Steve Drutz [ ] DEFERRED TO TITLE: Chief Financial Analyst/Chair [ ] REFERRED TO OTHER NAIC GROUP AFFILIATION: WA Office of Insurance Commissioner [ ] EXPOSED ________________ ADDRESS: 5000 Capitol Blvd SE [ ] OTHER (SPECIFY) Tumwater, WA 98501 IDENTIFICATION OF SOURCE AND FORM(S)/INSTRUCTIONS TO BE CHANGED [ x ] Health RBC Blanks [ x ] Health RBC Instructions [ ] Other ___________________ [ ] Life and Fraternal RBC Blanks [ ] Life and Fraternal RBC Instructions [ ] Property/Casualty RBC Blanks [ ] Property/Casualty RBC Instructions DESCRIPTION OF CHANGE(S) Split the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets into separate pages (Page XR007 and XR008). REASON OR JUSTIFICATION FOR CHANGE ** Currently the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets are included on page XR007 of the Health RBC formula. With the implementation of the 20 bond designations and the electronic only tables, the Bonds and Misc. Fixed Income Assets were split between two tabs in the excel file for use of the electronic only tables and ease of printing. However, for increased transparency and system requirements, it is suggested that these pages be split into separate page numbers beginning with year-2021. -
Forecasting of Severe Thunderstorms Using Upper Air Data
International Journal of Scientific & Engineering Research, Volume 6, Issue 7, July-2015 306 ISSN 2229-5518 Forecasting of Severe Thunderstorms using Upper Air data Sonia Bhattacharya, Anustup Chakrabarty and Himadri Chakrabarty Abstract— Severe local thunderstorm is the extreme weather convective phenomenon generated from cumulonimbus cloud. It has a devastating effect on human life. Correct forecasting is very crucial factor to save life and property. Here in this paper we have applied artificial neural network to achieve desired result. Multilayer perceptron has been applied on upper air data such as sunshine hour, pressure at freezing level, height at freezing level and cloud coverage (octa NH). MLP predicted correctly both ‘squall’ and ‘no squall’ storm days more than 90% with 12 hours leading time. Index Terms— MLP, squall, cumulus cloud, sunshine hour, pressure at freezing level, height at freezing level, octa 1 INTRODUCTION University Kolkata, India, PH-919433355720, E-mail: [email protected] When not obscured by haze or other clouds, the Thunderstorm is one of the most devastating top of a cumulonimbus is bright and tall, reaching up to an altitude of 10-16 km (lower in higher type of mesoscale, convective weather latitudes and higher in the tropics). Although a phenomenon, generated from the cumulonimbus thunderstorm is a three-dimensional structure, it cloud. It occurs in different subtropical places of should be thought of as a constantly evolving the world, (Ludlam, 1963). Over 40,000 process rather than an object. Each thunderstorm, thunderstorms occur throughout the world each or cluster of thunderstorms, is a self-contained day[1] The strong wind which has the speed of at system with organized regions of up drafts least 45 kilometers per hour with the duration of (upward moving air) and downdrafts (downward minimum 1 secondIJSER is termed as squall [1].