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Hurricane Helene Information from NHC Advisory 13, 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10, 2018 Helene Is Moving Toward the West-Northwest Near 16 Mph (26 Km/H)

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eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Helene Information from NHC Advisory 13, 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10, 2018 Helene is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through late Tuesday, followed by a turn toward the n orthwest and then toward the north-northwest on Wednesday and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected today, and Helene is forecast to become a major hurricane by tonight. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) 105 mph Max Sustained Wind Position Relativ e to 375 mi W of the Southernmost Speed: (Cat 2 Land: Cabo Verde Islands Hurricane) Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 974 mb Coordinates: 14.6 N, 30.0 W Trop. Storm Force 105 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 285 degrees at 16 mph Est. Max Sustained n/a Winds Ex tent: Wind Speed: Forecast Summary Ï!D Trop Dep ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Helene moving west- northwestward followed by a turn toward the northwest and then toward the north-northwest on Wednesday or Thursday. To illustrate theÏ!S Trop uncertainty Storm in Ï!D Trop Dep !1 Helene’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind -field map (below right) in pale gray. Ï Ca t 1 Ï!S Trop Storm 2 ■ Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. Ï! Ca t 2 1 Ï! Ca t 1 3 Ï! Ca t 3 Forecast Track for Hurricane Helene 2 Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane HeleneÏ! Ca t 2 Ï!4 Ca t 4 3 Ï! Ca t 3 Ï!5 Ca t 5 !4 Ca t 4 Ï NH C track NHC !5 Ca t 5 CAT_IDÏ NHTD C track NHCTS CAT_IDCa t 1 Ca t 2 TD TSCa t 3 Ca t 4 Ca t 1 Ca t 25 Watch/WarnTS Watch Ca t 3 !D All Fcst Tracks Ï Trop De p Ca t 4 al972016_multimod_atcf Ca t 5 TS Watch All Fcst Tracks Ï!S Trop Storm al972016_multimod_atcf Ï!1 Ca t 1 Ï!2 Ca t 2 3 Ï! Ca t 3 4 Ï! Ca t 4 Ï!5 Ca t 5 NH C track NHC CAT_ID TD © Copyright 2018 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, TS recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc. Some information containe d in this report may be compiled from third party sources; however, we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accur acy of Hazard and damage potential maps such. This report is for general information only, is not intended to be relied upon, and any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice. The views expressed in this produced by Willis are based on numericalCa t 1 modeling results from Kinetic Analysis report are not necessarily those of Willis Limited/Willis Re Inc., or any of its/their parent or sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC or any member companies thereof (hereinafter “Willis Towers Watson”). Ca t 2 Willis Towers Watson accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. Corporation. Ca t 3 The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or ina ccurate weather data, changes to the natural and Ca t 4 built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazar d and impact information Ca t 5 provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and a grees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any su bsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. All Fcst Tracks Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date 2018 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Benchmarking the 2018 Atlantic Season to Date Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 Tropical Storm avg '50-'11 Tropical Storm 2018 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Hurricane avg '50-'11 Hurricane 2018 9 5 1 Major Hurricane avg '50-'11 Major Hurricane 2018 2018 y ear to date (1/1/18 – 09/3/18) TS Isaac 2017 y ear to date (1/1/17 – 09/3/17) 11 6 3 8 TS Helene TS Gordon 14.7 7.9 3.8 1995-2011 season av erage TS Florence 1950-2011 season av erage 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Ernesto HU Isaac 4 TS Debbie HU Helene 2018 CSU season forecasts 12 5 1 TS Chris HU Florence (Colorado State University at Aug 2,‘18) TS Beryl HU Chris HU Beryl 2018 NOAA season forecasts 9-13 4-7 0-2 TS Alberto Major HU Florence (NOAA/CPC at Aug9, 2018) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2018 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Helene is the eigth named storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane The graph above shows 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Season. Last year saw eleven named storms by September 10, average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that Helene became the season’s eigth named storm including Major Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. on September 9. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence, Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Helene, located peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining over the eastern Atlantic, and on Hurricane Isaac, located over the central percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at September 10 is 53% tropical Atlantic. for all hurricanes and 49% for major hurricanes. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and western Cuba are associated with a weak surface trough. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Percentage of Days w ith Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us 50% Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Matt Nicolai roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected]% [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 +1 (952) 841-6657 30% 2 20% 10% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec.
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