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Hurricane Leslie

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Hurricane Leslie HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™ Hurricane Leslie Information from NHC Advisory 28, 5:00 AM EDT Thursday September 6, 2012 Hurricane Leslie is a moving slowly north-northwestward with a gradual strengthening forecast over the next 48 hours. Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall Forecast (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 75 mph Position Relative to 440 miles SSE of Bermuda Speed: (cat 1) Land: Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 985 mb Coordinates: 26.3 N, 62.4 W Hurricane Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 25 miles Bearing/Speed: N or 360 degrees at 1 mph n/a Winds (74+ mph): Speed: Forecast Summary Within 48 hours, there is a 80% chance Leslie will remain at hurricane strength (74+ mph winds), a 20% chance Leslie will weaken to a tropical storm (39-73 mph winds) and a less than 1% chance Leslie will weaken to tropical depression strength or dissipate (winds below 39 mph). The windfield map – based on the AVNO forecast (below right) – shows that this model has forecast the storm’s peak winds at category 3 hurricane strength (111-129 mph winds). The AVNO – one of many models used by NOAA – has been statistically identified as the current “best performing” model for Hurricane Leslie by Kinetic Analysis Corp. Forecast tracks for all current models (All Fcst Tracks) are shown on the map (in pale gray) to illustrate the uncertainty in Leslie’s forecast track. Swells generated by Leslie are continuing to affect Bermuda, the US East coast from Central Florida northward, the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. The NHC estimates chances of experiencing tropical storm force winds (39+ mph) and hurricane force winds (74+ mph), within 5 days, at 28% and 61% respectively for Bermuda. The NHC is also anticipating that coastal areas in Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia, have a 10% or greater chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds. Forecast Track for Hurricane Leslie Forecast Windfield and Rain for Hurricane Leslie (National Hurricane Center) (Based on AVNO at 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp. CACA Montreal ! ! 09-13 ÏD TD Ï3 Cat3 Ottawa Ottawa ! ! ÏSTorontoTS Ï4 Cat4 09-12 Chicago Buffalo Detroit E ! ! New York I Ï1 Cat1 Ï5 Cat5 New York L S ! Pittsburgh Washington D.C. Ï2 Cat2 E US Cincinnati L 09-11 Bermuda 09-10 TD below 1 in 09-09 TS 1 - 3 in Cat 1 3 - 6 in Cat 2 6 - 9 in 09-08 Cat 3 9 - 12 in 09-07 Cat 4 12 - 24 in 09-06 Cat 5 Miami NHC FcstTrack All FcstNassau Tracks AVNO FcstTrack Tropicropic ofof CancerCancer Havana 0250 500 1,000 Miles CU XX CU © Copyright 2012 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled Hazard and damage potential maps produced from third party sources and we do not guarantee and are not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general guidance only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in by Willis are based on numerical modeling connection with anything contained herein should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those results from Kinetic Analysis Corporation. of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates (hereinafter “Willis”). Willis is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites to which we refer. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 1 of 2 Coastal Watches and Warnings There are no watches or warnings associated with Hurricane Leslie. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2012 Atlantic Season to Date 2012 Activity versus Average Activity since 1950 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2012 year to date (1/1/12 – 9/6/12) 13 7 0 2011 year to date (1/1/11 – 9/6/11) 13 2 1 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2012 CSU season forecasts 14 6 2 (Colorado State University at Aug 3) 2012 NOAA season forecasts 12-15 5-8 2-3 (NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at Aug 9) Hurricane Activity to Date Leslie is the twelfth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane 2012 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Season and the sixth hurricane. Michael, also in the Atlantic as of The graph above shows 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and September 6, is the seventh hurricane. Thirteen named storms, two average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It hurricanes including major hurricane Irene, had occurred by this date shows, for example, that the ninth tropical storm of the season, last year. The next tropical storm of 2012 will be named Nadine. Tropical Storm Isaac, occurred on August 21 and became the season’s fourth hurricane seven days later on August 28. It also The 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season started quickly, slowed in July and shows that Leslie is the twelfth tropical storm and the sixth resumed apace in August. Since 1950, the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane hurricane of 2012, and that the average season has only 10.7 tropical Season has been the first season with seven hurricanes occurring by storms. September 6. New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. There is both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the orange region remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at over the Gulf of Mexico. September 6 is 61% for all hurricanes and 60% for major hurricanes. National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on September 6, 2012 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 60% 100% 48% 80% 36% 60% 24% 40% 12% 20% Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us Roy Cloutier Brian Owens 7760 France Avenue South 51 Lime Street Minneapolis, MN 55435 London EC3M 7DQ [email protected] [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +44 (0)20 3124 7637 Page 2 of 2 .
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