)) ISSUE 01 AUTUMN 2016 THE ART AND SCIENCE OF OF SCIENCE SCIENCE ART AND ART AND THE THE ((

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The future of life on Earth is the future of cities, and the future of cities is inextricably linked to the future of engineering and design.

New ideas, innovations and technologies will be crucial to how well we are able to manage the challenges of population growth, urbanization, ageing demographics and climate change as the century progresses.

Anyone with a professional interest in the built environment — or who is simply interested in these incredibly exciting places called cities — needs to understand what’s coming up.

But more than this, they need to understand how to actually apply these ideas to make a difference on their own projects and in their own localities.

THE ART AND SCIENCE OF That’s what we’re trying to do with this magazine. “The art and science of the possible” is one way to describe what we do as engineers — so that’s what we’ve called it.

Tom Smith, WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff

“Ingenuity, resourcefulness and creativity are the best resources for achieving change”

Susan Krumdieck / page 8

Editor-in-chief Julie Guppy Editorial consultants Steve Burrows, Cover illustration by Noma Bar Published by Wordmule © WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff Editor Katie Puckett Philippe Honnorat, Bridget Kennerley, wordmule.co.uk 1600 René-Lévesque Blvd. W Production editor Nick Jones Paul Tremble Design by Supermassive 16th floor Creative director Sam Jenkins Printed by Greenshires Montreal, Quebec H3H 1P9 Canada wsp-pb.com 6 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE CONTENTS 11.2016

CONNECTED THINKING THE HUMAN FACTOR 6 40

Our panel of columnists take on the future … INTERVIEW: Steve Burrows welcomes a disruptive element 7 PROFESSOR HEINZ WOLFF Susan Krumdieck dodges an iceberg 8 Nathanael Johnson embraces the urban wild 10 The inventor of bioengineering has turned away Lauren Isaac punctures driverless myths 12 from technology as he seeks to solve the crisis in Christian Wictorin rethinks broadband 13 care for older people Lord Richard Best redefines old age 14 Joel Kotkin foresees the death of the megacity 16

SPACES 44 THE CREATIVITY ENIGMA 14 18 Companies will seemingly go to any lengths 18 to encourage innovation in the workplace.

But the source of this 21st-century business LIFE SUPPORT elixir is proving elusive …

Can technology defuse the demographic timebomb? We examine the potential for better-connected buildings and cities to care for ageing populations

40 TOOLS

26 50

THE SMARTEST PLACE I KNOW STACKED UP Disruptive innovation expert Mike Steep picks 26 50 the US’s most digitized city As populations soar, the need to build quickly, safely and cost-effectively is greater than ever. The answer lies with modular construction — but not as we know it

62 28 THE FUTURE OF SHOPPING DISTRICTS 28 44 62 BLANK CANVAS The internet has transformed the world of retail. So if we don’t need to leave home to get the A contractor’s plea: can you make construction things we want, where does that leave our weather-proof? One problem, three engineers, shopping streets and malls? no constraints 7 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE

#DISRUPTIVETECHNOLOGY #REVOLUTIONIZINGCONSTRUCTION

HERE COME THE DISRUPTORS In Silicon Valley, building twice as fast, for half the cost, to last twice as long is not an impossible dream, writes Steve Burrows

ne of the great things about between 50% and 90% of labour hours increasing speed and assuring quality at the start-up world. They believe that if O living in San Francisco is that I on site add no value at all, while fatality significantly lower costs. you share what you’re doing, you will gain get to spend my evenings with Silicon rates are second only to mining. No The idea of building twice as fast, for from other people helping you and giving Valley start-ups — the closest thing to wonder Silicon Valley thinks it’s ripe for half the cost, to last twice as long is not a you free advice. It’s Wikipedia versus glimpsing the future. So far, I’ve worked a revolution. dream. That’s just the level of change that Encyclopedia Britannica. with something like 150, all seeking How are they going to do it? First, produces the kind of returns that these For many of these firms, their concepts funding for ideas that aim to revolutionize there are algorithms: anything we do start-ups are aiming for. I absolutely are proven and their greatest concern some aspect of construction. today that is rules-based will be done believe that it’s possible if we set our is adoption: how to get the industry to Silicon Valley is only just waking up tomorrow by a machine. This will change minds to it. accept change. The most striking thing to the size of the global construction the design process, and with it the role of Data will be vital in this new world. about start-ups is that they have no fear industry. They’re looking for the next professional advisers. We will be able to Learning from one project to another of the status quo. Instead of starting billion-dollar-a-year business. Companies run thousands of optimized designs, live, will be expected and knowledge will with the legal or technical reasons why like Apple and Google have been in front of clients, and the trick will be to travel freely around the world via open- something won’t work, they believe every predominantly focused on the consumer make decisions when faced with data- source networks. There will inevitably problem can be solved by technology. market, but now they’ve got to find the rich options. Prefabrication and robotics be questions about intellectual property. There’s a solution to everything, and next big thing. So they’re branching out will see construction taking place in a But the start-ups I work with give their if somebody says no, it’s just one step into the motor industry with autonomous controlled environment with building elevator pitch in front of everyone — closer to a “yes”. vehicles, and into healthcare with information models connecting directly industry experts, investors, their peers, wearables — and If you look at the top- to the tools, in the factory and on site. the competition. They also provide data Steve Burrows is executive vice president spending industries in the world, there’s The process will be optimized too, about how successful their product has at WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff and a visiting no question that construction is bigger through principles such as LEAN or been in operation. Open source is god in lecturer at Stanford University than either retail or motor. Advantage Strategy. The boundaries The other reason construction is a between architect, engineer, constructor target is that it’s barely changed in the and client will blur. There will be far last 100 years. It is the only industry in more collaboration between designer “Open source is god in the start-up world. They believe that if the world in which productivity is lower and constructor, as contracts converge you share what you’re doing, you will gain from other people today than it was at the end of the and modular solutions can be

Paddy Mills Paddy Portraits Second World War. Research shows that chosen earlier, reducing site labour, helping you. It’s Wikipedia versus Encyclopedia Britannica”

P50 9 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE CONNECTED THINKING

#TRANSITIONENGINEERING #CLIMATECHANGE #WICKEDPROBLEMS

utility, energy return on energy invested, in changing course. In all instances, and net surplus to the economy from the technology used in the 100-year “You know that at 11:39pm on 14 April the lookout will spot an HOW TO STOP THE TITANIC coal, oil and gas are colossal. Engineering discovery is known today, but projects and technology provided access to these to bring about the necessary change iceberg, and by 2:20am the ship and 1,517 people will be gone. benefits at bargain prices. We now refer are few. The problem is the economics Knowing the future is the easy part. The real challenge is to this unsustainable activity as business- of short-term perceived risk. For Can you change the future?” changing course — whether you’re heading for an iceberg or as-usual (BAU), and it is difficult to example, the design tools and materials climate change catastrophe, writes Susan Krumdieck imagine changing course or slowing for near-zero passive buildings are down. Society and its leaders expect already known, but the business of low- that technology will provide new sources energy redevelopment is not growing of green energy, and keep the economy fast enough. P49 growing with minimal inconvenience. The next phase is to develop shift et’s explore a thought puzzle: Can operator will receive numerous warnings was a problem, the captain or the owners However, innovative thinking is stifled The transition approach includes honest projects and new business opportunities transit-oriented development along a rents and lower energy costs. The L you change the future? from other ships about large icebergs in would do something. if we focus on catastrophic failure. assessment of green technologies and that improve energy performance tram corridor into the central business shift project includes an insurance You are transported onto the deck of the direct path. You could seek out the You are running out of time. How can For example, modern buildings, cities, whether they actually can change or slow through holistic measures. These district. The enterprise has developed product that de-risks investment in the RMS Titanic, the largest ship ever operator and help him communicate the you slow down the ship, enabling the and the entire economy would fail if the BAU course. shift projects must be beneficial and the base data and business case for the redevelopment by guaranteeing a built and designed to be unsinkable. It is danger to the captain. But the captain captain to avoid the iceberg? You could coal, oil and gas supplies suddenly The innovation phase of the approach profitable. For example, From the redevelopments. minimum energy savings return for midnight 13 April 1912. There are 2,224 has hit icebergs with other ships, and go to the engine room and explain to dropped by 80%. A rapid reduction in is an interdisciplinary discovery of the Ground Up is a new social enterprise in Another example is the redevelopment fully modelled and reviewed renovation people on the ship, which is under full the Titanic is unsinkable, so he may not the men shovelling coal into the boilers energy supply would be a disaster — future, 100 years from now, where the Christchurch that forms partnerships of old buildings in old areas of cities. designs. steam on the fastest ever crossing of think caution is warranted. Neither will that they need to reduce the use of coal but rapid reduction in energy use is the wicked problem has been resolved between electric tram manufacturer Many are in locations that could become The transition engineering approach is the Atlantic. You know what will happen, the captain and senior officers want to by 80%, providing the chance to change only way to mitigate climate risk. The and the energy system is managed Alstom, the city council, retailers along vibrant, walkable and transit-oriented about creating projects that shift energy what will you do? You know that at contradict the owners. You could try to course in time and safeguard the journey. risks of unsustainable fossil energy use sustainably. For example, when we a main avenue, student volunteers, the urban eco-villages, but the projects use to 80% less fossil fuel while realizing 11:39pm on 14 April the lookout will spot convince the first-class passengers to They would probably be afraid for their are exacerbated without immediate explored Christchurch 100 years local community and must be done one at a time in each city. social benefits and making profits. an iceberg, and by 2:20am the ship and ask the captain to slow down. But they jobs. Could you convince them to change change, but imminent collapse due from now, we discovered a city with property developers. The shift project will develop a new The Global Association for Transition 1,517 people will be gone. The ship was are not convinced of danger in such a the future? to energy shortage is unlikely. This redevelopment of much of the paved The aim is to renovation business that invests in old Engineering can provide consultation launched with lifeboats for less than comfortable and luxurious ship, and they Transition engineering is the work dissonance between the problem and land into productive uses, several electric redevelop an buildings in the right locations, becoming and training for companies, councils and half the number of people on board. You don’t want to hear about problems when of innovating and delivering the the possible actions can be referred trams and all buildings incorporating area of old, the owner of the improvements, taking organizations to take on their wicked could take a self-sufficiency strategy and they have parties to attend. You could go redevelopment of energy-consuming to as a “wicked problem”. passive design and very low energy use. substandard over the energy, utility and waste problems and change course. make sure you are near a lifeboat, but you below decks and organize the lower- systems, which we must do to Transition engineering is an approach There was some reorganization of the low-density contracts and charging clients know they will be allocated according to class passengers to occupy the bridge accomplish the 80% step down in to wicked problems. The approach starts land use, and the dominant travel mode suburb rents. The return on the Susan Krumdieck is professor of mechanical class and you might not get a spot. and demand action to slow the ship and greenhouse gas production required to with defining a specific system, learning was bicycles and electrified cargo cycles. near the investments is in engineering at the University of Canterbury, Clearly, the best solution is to slow change the course. But the passengers avoid runaway climate change. Ingenuity, the history and knowing the future. The back-casting phase uses this university both capital New Zealand, and founder of the Global down, change course and not hit the don’t want to worry, they believe in the resourcefulness and creativity are the Energy use and emissions have grown 100-year discovery model to interrogate into higher gains and in Association for Transition Engineering iceberg. You know that the wireless technology of the ship and that if there best resources for achieving change. beyond sustainable levels because the the present and identify the key players density, improved transitionengineering.co.nz 11 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE CONNECTED THINKING

#CITYCREATURES #URBANPLANNING #BIODIVERSITY

INTO THE URBAN WILD

Nathanael Johnson is the author of Unseen City — an exploration of the world of “synanthropes”, the plant and animal species that have evolved to thrive alongside city dwellers, whether they are welcome or not

The Possible: How do synanthropes more spiritual than practical. I want to resources, but if you are at the stage my backyard, and am familiar with his governance. I also think that if we start TP: Do you think we should consider contribute to the functioning of a city? help people notice that, no matter how where you have the privilege to actually seasonal dietary changes. I can hear the seeing the wilderness around us we’ll “Environmentalism really is changing already: it’s becoming synanthropes more actively when What is the unseen role that they play? urban their environment, they are also care about making life good — rather news about the tilting of the earth from start valuing it, and try to bring more of making decisions about our cities? in nature. If we can open our eyes to than just possible — for people they can the birds. it into our cities. It turns out that the best much less about saving picturesque places that wealthy people NJ: Their role is to thrive in our footsteps, the weeds, squirrels and street trees it help a lot. way to nurture biodiversity in cities is to NJ: Yes! Instead of only noticing when to make use of the environments we can suffuse the walk to the bus stop TP: What can synanthropes teach us set aside a chunk of park and wild land like to vacation in” things get to be pests, we should be create and turn our waste into life. with meaning. TP: How has your own relationship about being better city dwellers? nearby. This range of biomes — city, fields figuring out how to manage them so we Now, often we see this as more of an with the city changed since you began and wild land — makes for much higher can live more comfortably side by side. annoyance than a contribution. For TP: Synanthropes need humans to studying synanthropes? NJ: I think the main lesson is that life is biodiversity than any one of them alone. plants, and transportation, and housing like having lots of interesting creatures We should be setting aside land near instance, pigeons thrive on our food thrive, but how do humans need better when you know your neighbours, we need. And environmentalism really around, but if there are rats in my house cities for habitat, and make spaces for waste and multiply to such huge synanthropes? NJ: It’s made life a lot more interesting! be they human or non-human. If we have TP: You talk about upending the ethic is changing already: it’s becoming much I’m going to kill them. Paying attention to the movement of wildlife. Planners and populations that their poop becomes a It used to be that I’d sort of switch on diversity in our neighbourhoods and form that tells us to stop spoiling nature and less about saving picturesque places that nature in cities, particularly with children, architects should be aware that, any time real problem and their health begins to NJ: The problem is that we mostly don’t. my eyes if I was hiking in a national relationships, life gets better. start using it to support ourselves … wealthy people like to vacation in, and can provide lessons about valuing nature they make an out-of-the-way corner, suffer because diseases spread at high That is, we don’t need them to survive, or park to look for plants and animals, but How could we use nature positively much more about ensuring everyone can in a pragmatic way that allows humans or rooftop, sooner or later plants and concentrations. It’s always easier to see keep our kids out of danger. But as you I’d switch them off again when I came TP: And about designing and to make life in cities better and more have a safe, healthy and beautiful place and non-humans to thrive together. animals will make it their home. Even if the problems, but they are providing move on to things like the need to belong, home. Now I make a point of looking managing cities better? sustainable? to live. Instead of our current irrational binary — you don’t design for it, life finds a way. services as well. If not for pigeons, rats, to have a meaningful life, to experience closely at the life around me as I move I think paying attention to nature in ie. nature is sacred and cannot ever be We might as well be conscious of this and ants we’d have rotting food piled aesthetic interest or difference, they through the city. I have relationships with NJ: Well, I think the skill of paying close NJ: Traditionally environmentalism has cities can help us make this shift. In our touched, or nature must be extinguished fact and design for it. up all over our cities (ants do the heavy become really important. So I wouldn’t the trees in my neighbourhood, I notice attention to the perspectives of a true been about stopping the bulldozers, but daily lives we recognize that there are entirely to make way for civilization — lifting here). recommend worrying about nurturing when they are doing well, and when they diversity of neighbours makes for better now it has to really be about firing up the trade-offs, we can both cherish nature we’d be doing the work to figure out how Nathanael Johnson is the food editor for But the role that I’m interested in is nature in a refugee camp with scarce are sick. I know the squirrel who “owns” city policies and more democratic bulldozers to build the low-carbon power and seek to control it. For instance, I to live together. Grist. Unseen City is published by Rodale 13 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE CONNECTED THINKING

#AUTONOMOUSVEHICLES #SUSTAINABLETRANSPORT #TELECOMSNETWORKS #DIGITALDEMOCRACY #SWEDEN

magine if BMW built its own road, and providers. The main difference is that I only BMWs were allowed to drive on under the open access model, there is a that road. stricter agreement governing commercial It’s easy to see that such a monopoly and technical issues between the service would be bad news for people buying providers and the network provider. cars, for the quality of the road, or for the There are also a few cornerstone wider society that the road infrastructure clauses that can’t be negotiated. One is supports. Yet that’s exactly how telecoms that the cost of using the infrastructure is networks are developed in many parts the same for all operators, big and small. of the world. These networks are just as If a larger operator gets a discounted important as roads — in fact, in the not- rate, the whole thing falls apart. too-distant future they will be essential Monopolies are going to become for the functioning of every system and increasingly problematic as cities seek piece of infrastructure that we rely on. to get smart — internet communications Originally, networks were used only are a critical enabler here. For example, for telephony and broadcasting. It made connectivity underpins software to sense to have dedicated infrastructure optimize logistics and transport, or for each, optimized for specific types of smart grids, which feed back information physical signal and traffic pattern, and on energy use. Efficient, affordable for the service provider and the network internet services are key to economic operator to be the same. sustainability and to social life — good FIVE MYTHS ABOUT DRIVERLESS CARS But technology has evolved dramatically connections need to be planned for, just since then. The available services are as urban planners create public spaces booming: telephony (mobile or fixed), web EVERYTHING IS where people can get together. Countless reports have talked up the drastic changes that will result from this disruptive technology. Lauren Isaac pours sugar in the tank of some of the more common misconceptions access, email, HDTV, video conferencing, But it goes way beyond network access. streaming, gaming — as well as all Many components of the network — the internet-enabled appliances that NETWORKED domains, user devices, internet-enabled comprise smart cities and the “internet appliances and sensors — could P26 of things”. For all of these, information Smarter cities are threatened by broadband collaborate to make future smart cities 1 2 3 4 5 is stored and transmitted digitally, monopolies, warns Christian Wictorin. We need work better. A generic approach would increasingly using the IP protocol. And to liberate our network infrastructure mean we could reuse as much as We won’t need headlights AVs will reduce or eliminate Connected vehicle technology All AVs will be electric Public transit will be obsolete the end user is no longer just a consumer possible — so fewer products and no stoplights won’t be needed but a producer of content too. need for separate network connections, Ford has unveiled an autonomous Just about every research report While I do think transit agencies In this market, a vertically integrated saving money and energy. vehicle (AV) that can drive entirely MIT researchers have worked out Driverless and connected vehicles discussing the impacts of AV will need to rethink their service model with a dedicated network But only if they speak the same in the dark using LiDAR. But even a way to eliminate traffic signals are distinct technologies that have highlights reduced greenhouse offerings, fleet types, pricing infrastructure for each service becomes language. Unfortunately, most of the if the cars don’t need headlights to even before self-driving cars significant benefits independently. gas emissions, because AVs will and coverage areas, I believe highly inefficient. One alternative is the systems monitoring and controlling “see” in the dark, pedestrians and become the norm, using sensors However, the combination of be fuelled by electricity. But these government involvement in public open access model, developed over the principle is that we are building an which they connect to the network and systems for heating, lighting, smart cyclists will always need to be able inside cars and a communication the two will maximize the safety are two distinct technologies transportation will always be last 15 years in Sweden, and now gaining infrastructure for society — not merely deliver services to users. The network homes and office equipment currently to see the cars. method at the interchange. benefits for society. It was recently — it can’t be assumed that AVs necessary. Government will need acceptance around the world. to generate revenue. owner and communication provider can use their own proprietary protocols. But while there is potential for revealed that the driver of a Tesla will leverage electric vehicle to manage their jurisdiction’s In the open access model, many In the Swedish model, infrastructure be a single company. But the service Realizing a truly sustainable smart commute time savings, this (again) Model S was killed while his car technology. mobility to minimize congestion, services are delivered by different and services are divided into three parts: providers must be separate to avoid city will require a joint effort on many ignores the fact that pedestrians was engaged in the “autopilot” ensure proper transportation providers over the same infrastructure, the passive infrastructure, the active conflicts of interest. different levels — technical, societal and and cyclists will need to know mode, when its camera and radar options for all demographics and so there is competition to deliver the equipment and the service providers. The financial flow is based on revenue commercial — and communications when they can safely cross. failed to distinguish a truck turning enable seamless payment across best service at the best price. Once the The passive infrastructure — the cabling sharing. End users buy services from technology will be central to enabling and across its path. Connected vehicle platforms. end user is connected to the network, under the streets — is the property of the service providers, who in turn pay rent coordinating a mesh of solutions. We will technology could have enabled they can choose any service they network owner, which can be a company to use the infrastructure. The network only realize all the benefits of technology the vehicle to alert the driver to like, without any need to change the owned by the city. The active equipment provider may also receive one-off if we have the right infrastructure in an impending collision or take equipment in their premises. The basic is supplied by a communications connection fees from property landlords. place, and if everyone can use it. corrective action. Had the truck idea is to promote the highest degree provider, which may also be owned by You could say that a wholesale operator and car both had it, the truck Lauren Isaac is manager of of competition, maximizing freedom the city, or could be a private company. performs a similar role to the network Christian Wictorin is manager of driver might not have made the sustainable transportation at of choice for end users and avoiding On top of this is the equipment of owner when they rent out a common smart city solutions at WSP Parsons dangerous turn in the first place. WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff monopoly. An important underlying individual service providers, through infrastructure to different service Brinckerhoff in Sweden 15 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE CONNECTED THINKING

#AGEINGPOPULATION #HOUSINGDESIGN #KEEPTHESOFA

“We’ve got this period of relatively good health that runs from the mid-50s to the late 70s. Perhaps we’re slightly more creaky, but we’re not ready for residential care”

THE NEW MIDDLE AGE

We shouldn’t be building better housing just for the elderly, says Lord Richard Best, but for the not-old-yet who are ready to downsize

P40

The Possible: In the most recent HAPPI More people in their 80s and 90s this particular group, most people won’t to less square feet, but you’re not going haven’t picked up on the fact that this is TP: Soon there will be a proportionally you’re going to get winter diseases. You catalyst for socializing separately, which [Housing our Ageing Population: will need the care element to be added have something on their doorstep and down in the world in terms of quality. an international phenomenon. larger number of people needing care can list 101 ways in which the home can is a more real interaction. Panel for Innovation] report, you talk in and that may mean moving to a they’re going to be much more resistant and a smaller workforce to look after be the cause of people requiring health The housing association I chaired, 16 about “extended middle age” rather specialist establishment. But I think to moving. It’s only when we have a TP: Where in the world is getting this TP: Are there universal factors to good them. How can better housing help to and social care services, all of which are of our schemes have cinemas in them, than retirement or old age. What that the ideal is a design for people in plentiful supply that downsizing will type of housing right? housing design for this age group? meet that economic challenge? entirely avoidable. and in retrospect I think that’s a waste characterizes that stage of life? extended middle age that actually lasts really take off. And underpinning that are mental of time. If five of you want to watch until you’re 100. RB: It’s very irritating that other countries RB: The basic design, how it feels to be RB: It’s really incredibly important. health factors, because so many older something together, someone’s probably RB: I think there’s a general feeling that TP: You also talk about “rightsizing” are well ahead of the UK on this. In inside, these are universals. The HAPPI On the health and social care side, there people are isolated. If they’re in a place got a DVD player. It would have been three score years and ten just doesn’t TP: How do you reconcile the idea rather than downsizing … America, they have continuing care Design Guides are about space, light are more and more stories of people with others in the same boat, they get better to spend the money on giving work any more. Life expectancy is now of downsizing with the desire for communities that will see you through — terribly important when you’re older who are in hospital and cannot be mutual support, they get companionship. people another couple of square metres,

P20 into the 80s for men as well as women, familiar surroundings? RB: Quite often people are worried from the bungalow to the care element — and accessibility. Another universal is discharged because their home is totally or better storage facilities. A continental and you don’t really classify yourself that downsizing means moving from a if you need it. And in terms of it being that, whereas housing for young people unsuitable. So we have people stuck in TP: So is communal space important? practice is to have “cages” where, when as old, and don’t like being classified as RB: We know that loads of people, three-bedroom house with a garden to a the norm for people to move in extended is for people who aren’t there very much, hospital, costing £340 for 24 hours. It you downsize, you put that huge sofa old, even if you’re in your late 70s. So something like 6.8 million in the UK, bedsitter or a one-bedroom flat, and they middle age, then it’s our neighbours — the elderly occupier is there all the time. is simply wasted money. Then you’ve RB: I’m not very keen on retirement that you’re never going to sit on again but we’ve got this period of relatively good have expressed an interest in the are not going to move if it means giving Scandinavia, the Netherlands, Germany They are going to spend nearly all their got people who have accidents in these housing having a lot of institutional can’t bear to get rid of. Psychologically, health that runs from the mid-50s concept of downsizing, but we also up too much space. But if you don’t — who are well ahead. But there are still waking hours in that place, so it’s got to homes — if you fall and fracture a hip, ingredients. I find it’s better for people that seems to be important. to the late 70s. Perhaps we’re slightly know that when people do move, they need the upstairs, a well-designed two- large parts of the world where the ageing be good and it’s got to be different from that’s going to cost the NHS something to entertain in their own homes. There more creaky, but we’re not ready for prefer to move within three miles. As bedroom apartment is the equivalent of a population doesn’t feature as a big issue the bog standard product that, sadly, like £8,000. And if you can’t afford to might be a club room for occasions when Lord Richard Best is head of the UK’s HAPPI residential care. we are still only building occasionally for three-bedroom house. So you are moving for housebuilders and developers. They we’re quite used to for younger people. heat a badly insulated older property, everyone gets together, but I see that as a panel on housing for older people 17 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE CONNECTED THINKING

#URBANIZATION #POPULATIONGROWTH #DEVELOPINGWORLD

governments have rolled out housing Slowdown in Chinese megacities subsidies, tax breaks and cheaper mortgages to lure migrants. Whether Since the start of the millennium, China’s largest cities have experienced some of the most rapid growth in world history. that will be enough to counteract the pull of the megacities’ bigger job markets is During 2000-2010, the population of the 21 largest grew by 2.2% annually. Shanghai and Beijing added between 6 and 7 million an open question. residents, growing by 3.4% and 3.9% each year respectively.

ntil recently the worldwide trend But since 2010, average annual growth has fallen to 1.2%, with Shanghai and Beijing slowing to 1.3% and 2.3%. Of China’s 10 most U toward megacities — there were 34 populous cities, only Tianjin has grown faster than during the 2000s — as it welcomes former residents of Beijing. in 2014 — has seemed relentless. But in much of the world this trend is slowing down. The populations of Europe and North America are growing slowly, with the exception of London and Moscow. In 2.3% the last decade the population of New 1.3% York City grew at roughly one-third the 3.9% relatively low national rate. 1.2% Where megacities can be expected to 3.4% grow in the future are in the backwaters of the global economy, in Africa and parts of Asia, where the most rapid population 2.2% growth and urbanization is taking place. In an impressive 2011 study, the consultancy McKinsey predicted that through 2025, population growth would 2016 PEAK MEGACITY shift to 577 “fast-growing middleweight” 2010 2000 cities, many of them in China and

Crowded conditions, inflated property prices, public health India, while, in contrast, megacities Source: NewGeography.com disasters, low fertility rates — Joel Kotkin asks whether it’s time would underperform economically and we gave up on super-sized cities demographically. In India as well, population growth of prime minister Narendra Modi, developing countries, some 83% in Africa dispersion, not concentration, provides a rates have slowed considerably for two who implemented a programme of followed by 13% in Asia, particularly better model for future urban growth in of its three largest cities, Mumbai and “rurbanization” as chief minister of the less developed parts. Rather than developing countries. Ultimately, a shift Kolkata, while New Delhi has become the state of Gujarat. Villages are still an indicator of the future, megacity toward dispersion — both within regions the country’s largest megalopolis. More home to the vast majority of Indians growth in these regions increasingly and between them — has been made ast December, a massive hillside killed 173 people. And of course, there Beijing and Tianjin suffer a similarly to the countryside, as well as to cleaner, rapid population growth has taken place and serve as the primary source of new is something of a lagging indicator of more feasible by new technology. Smaller L of waste material, piled up from is the widespread urban air pollution dismal rate. less congested regions in Australia, New in mid-sized cities such as Hyderabad, urban migrants. Modi speaks of human an early phase of urbanization. Growth cities and even villages are no longer as Shenzhen’s construction boom, that is hazardous in Beijing and simply This reflects both crowded conditions Zealand and North America. Pune, Chennai and Bangalore, as well as settlements with the “heart of a village” projections suggest the evolution of two economically isolated and are brought collapsed. The manmade avalanche was noxious elsewhere. Simply put, the once and insanely high property prices that, Nonetheless, the Chinese government in smaller cities like Coimbatore, home and developing “the facilities of the city”. more megacities in Africa: Johannesburg- closer to the outside world through the a human tragedy, killing 69 people and compelling “economies of scale” offered on an income-adjusted basis, now are remains committed to driving further to 2.5 million, that have seen much of the Singapore-based scholar Kris Hartley East Rand in South Africa and Luanda in use of cell phones and the internet. destroying 33 buildings, but it was also by increasing the size of cities have far higher than those in expensive world urbanisation to boost economic growth, country’s industrial and tech growth. notes a shift of industrial and even Angola. They will join Lagos in Nigeria, Economic growth in these places could indicative of a wider phenomenon: the broken down in urban agglomerations cities like Vancouver, London, Sydney, aiming to turn more rural farmers into Urban decentralization has become service businesses to more rural locales the rapidly growing and poor megacities help stem megacity migration. waning of the megacity era. over 10 million people, where their size San Francisco and New York — two city-dwelling, free-spending consumers. something of a theme of the government in South-east Asian countries like Cairo and Kinshasa, as well as Karachi Such ideas need to be heard more Shenzhen became a megacity has now become an encumbrance times higher in some cases. In 2014 the government set a goal Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, and in Pakistan. in the discussion about cities in the (population over 10 million) faster to further growth, not to mention the The population growth rate in Beijing to increase the ratio of the Chinese parts of China. As megacities become As is the case in India, these cities will developing world. We need to confront than any other in history, epitomizing happiness and health of their citizens. and Shanghai has dropped dramatically population that lives in cities to 60% more crowded, congested and difficult likely be most prolific in producing slums. the urban future with radical new the massive movement of Chinese to One big problem with megacities, since 2010, according to demographer by 2020 from 53.7% then. But the “Simply put, the once to manage, Hartley suggests, companies Worldwide there are now as many as a thinking. Rather than foster an urban cities over the past four decades. Now the Chinese are discovering, is their Wendell Cox. The population of China’s urbanization strategy aims to funnel compelling ‘economies of in these areas are finding it more billion denizens of these depressed areas, form that demands heroic survival, we it appears more like a testament to impact on property prices and fertility. capital expanded 3.9% a year from 2000 migrants to small and mid-size cities convenient, less costly and better for threatening the social stability not only of should focus on ways to create cities that extravagant delusion. The country may have been freed last to 2010; this slowed to 2.3% annually with less than 5 million residents, scale’ offered by increasing the families of their employees to locate their countries but also of the world, as offer a more prosperous, healthful and The Shenzhen collapse came four year from the one-child policy, but don’t from 2010 to 2014. In Shanghai the maintaining tight restrictions on legal further away. they tend to generate high levels of both even pleasant life for their citizens. months after a similar deadly public expect a baby boom in any of the biggest, growth rate for the same periods slowed migration to the megacities. the size of cities have broken random violence and more organized safety disaster in Tianjin, another most glamorous cities. Shanghai has from 3.4% annually to 1.3%. High degrees To make the smaller cities more down in urban agglomerations ccording to UN estimates, 99% forms of thuggery, including terrorism. Joel Kotkin is executive editor of relatively new megacity, where an among the lowest fertility rates in the of pollution have led at least some attractive, Beijing promised to ramp A of all population growth between One does not have to be a Gandhian NewGeography.com. A longer version of explosion at a chemical warehouse world, one-third of the replacement rate. affluent urban Chinese to move back up infrastructure spending, and local over 10 million people” 2010 and 2100 will take place in idealist to suggest that perhaps this article appeared on Forbes.com 19 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

Society is ageing fast. Can better, smarter buildings and cities help us to survive the demographic timebomb?

WORDS BY STEPHEN McGRATH

ou are old. You wake up, in your own often with multiple chronic conditions Y bed, and look up at the camera on and geriatric syndromes, and most health the ceiling, which has been looking down services are ill-prepared to cope. at you all night. You find its presence This poses tough questions for reassuring. Another day begins. While governments and healthcare providers your smartphone takes your blood across the globe, especially as rising pressure, a companion robot brings in expectations coincide with pressure breakfast, together with your various on funding and fewer resources to meds. You know you should get up. You go round. The answers promise to have physiotherapy exercises to do on challenge not only established models of your games console. And you know the healthcare provision but the way in which clinic will be analyzing your every move … cities are planned and, perhaps most A scene from 2050? Perhaps, but it fundamentally, the distinction between could also be much sooner. Care for older care environments and our own homes. people is evolving rapidly, in response to an impending crisis in demand. The Intelligent hospitals good news is that for the first time in history, most people alive now can An obvious first step is to improve the expect to be around well into their efficiency of hospital operations, so that sixties. The challenge is that increasing a smaller workforce can look after a longevity coupled with lower birth rates larger number of patients, while lowering means a smaller global workforce will costs. Minimizing walking distances, have to support a much larger elderly maximizing patient visibility and reducing

P20 population. Health and social care will energy use are already important be on the frontline. As the World Health considerations for the designers of Organization (WHO) has pointed out, healthcare buildings. But advances in

older people have complex health needs, information technology could remove SHOUT Artwork 21 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

the need for staff to walk between FOREVER YOUNG … departments at all, while enabling much Over the next 40 years, the global population will get older faster than at any time in history more detailed patient monitoring and cutting energy bills dramatically. One of the most exciting developments In 2016, the post-war this age group. Advanced working-age population set there is little evidence that in hospital design is all but invisible to babyboomer generation economies such as Japan to peak in 2020. older people today are any patients, but it is set to revolutionize care began to turn 70. In the and Germany are worst The WHO points out that healthier than their parents: over the coming decades. Healthcare longer term, the WHO affected — by 2060, this collective ageing is also over the last 30 years, there buildings contain many systems, estimates that the number one-third of Germans will happening much faster has been a slight decline spanning everything from light control of over-60s will more than be over 65, while Japan’s than in the past: France had in the proportion of older and fire alarms to hospital administration, double between 2015 population is set to drop almost 150 years to adapt people in high-income nurse call and heart monitoring, but and 2050, to 22% of the from 127 million to as its proportion of over- countries who need help they are typically separate and unable to global population. In all 87 million, of whom almost 60s rose from 10% to 20%, with basic activities, communicate with each other. So, what major areas, apart from 40% will be 65 or older. but countries such as Brazil, but little change in the if there was a single communications Africa, at least a quarter of China too is on the edge of China and India will have prevalence of less severe platform that united all of these systems? the population will be in a demographic cliff, with its little more than 20. And limitations in functioning. Medical staff and facilities managers would be able to extract the information they needed far more quickly, while other tasks could be automated completely. The data harvested from such a system could also be used to improve everything In all major areas, from user experience to waiting times to apart from Africa, buildings’ energy efficiency. at least 25% of “You’d go to the hospital but you the population will wouldn’t have to go to the admin desk be over 60 because your smartphone would tell them that you’re in the building,” says Rick Rome, mechanical engineer and executive vice president at WSP Parsons 2015 Brinckerhoff’s specialist healthcare The WHO division in Dallas. “They would send you estimates that a message to tell you that you’re going to

the number of be in room 502 on the fifth floor. So you Thomas McConnell Photo over-60s will go straight to your room and the nurse more than meets you. On a screen in your room, it Above Integrating systems or three steps in the process.” Meanwhile, ultimate goal is to improve the efficiency such as walk-in clinics or freestanding

2050 double, from will list all of your caregivers and all of such as patient check-in, the thermostat in room 502 has been of the hospital and improve the efficiency emergency departments — the latter will 12% 900 million to your procedures for the next three days. energy management and automatically adjusted when you entered of the caregiver, so they don’t have to have the facilities to treat more acute 2 billion, between They’ll already know your blood pressure lighting will revolutionize the building so that it’s a comfortable spend as much time on administration,” illnesses and injuries than a conventional 22% 2015 and 2050 because it’s been on your Fitbit prior to healthcare for patients and temperature: “That’s improving the Rome says. “It all comes through one clinic, but without large wards or your arrival. So you’ve just eliminated two staff. This is already a reality at energy efficiency of the hospital too system and it’s at their fingertips. So if a radiology departments. Dell Children’s Medical Center because you’re not air-conditioning caregiver is currently, say, 65% efficient, This will mean a community-planning in Dallas rooms that aren’t occupied yet.” the goal would be to improve that approach, where care and wellbeing are “You’d go to the hospital This might sound futuristic but Rome’s efficiency to 85%.” integrated throughout a wider urban area. team has already implemented limited It’s a radical break with the past, says but you wouldn’t have to go versions of it on projects including Dell Decentralized care Marco Buccini, a healthcare planner and Children’s Medical Center in Dallas, the architect with over 28 years of experience to the admin desk — your first LEED Platinum hospital in the world. But the future of senior healthcare is not in Canadian healthcare. “It means not “We tied the patient check-in system limited to hospitals: large, consolidated thinking of hospitals as these isolated smartphone would tell them with the energy management and the facilities will be unable to fulfill the care institutions that are there when you’re you’re in the building” lighting control systems, and it works needs of ageing societies on their own. sick. Instead of just building a hospital, really well.” They are now developing Instead, the focus is shifting towards a now there’s a real focus on integrated Rick Rome, WSP Parsons the concept further, at the cutting-edge decentralized model, in which a much campuses, where you may have wellness University of Texas hospital in Austin, and greater proportion of care is provided clinics and medical clinics on a site, as Brinckerhoff a new 150,000m2 hospital in China. “The from smaller, primary care facilities well as residential senior care. Often a 23 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

megatrends. It is time to address it from all angles.” “We have to start a revolution, and redesign our cities and SYSTEMS MEDICINE His practice, Hollwich Kushner, first explored these ideas in 2011 with the buildings to allow all of us to live the life we want, all life long” Big data to the rescue? BOOM masterplan concept, designed for the gay community, and combining high- Matthias Hollwich, Hollwich Kusher Medical researchers around the design health, sports and entertainment world have a growing interest in the facilities with lofts, apartments and well as a medical centre, the 200,000m2 a supportive cross-sectional community concept of “systems medicine”, the houses set in a pedestrian-friendly project includes six residential towers rather than isolating them from it.” idea of mass-pooling large amounts landscape. Its latest prototype is Skyler, that double as vertical farms, around a With its vertical farm, Homefarm of patients’ medical information and a tower that embodies the New Aging productive garden and farm. Residents achieves something that many higher- analyzing it to spot patterns in the principles. It offers multigenerational will be able to participate in growing density models struggle to offer: formation of chronic diseases. “It living for 1,000 people, and includes food, while cloud-based technology proximity to nature. A growing body of hasn’t reached the clinic yet,” says not only homes but healthcare, shared embedded in the residential units will evidence shows that this is the basis Marc Kirschner, project manager workspaces and places for socializing. monitor their vital signs. of better physical and mental health. at Coordinating Action Systems Multigenerational living and social “The world’s ageing population is “Green spaces and immersion in nature Medicine (CASyM). “People are interaction was also at the heart of changing and so must the way we think have positive effects on a wide range of just starting to realize that systems the winner of the Future Experimental about the architecture that supports parameters, such as cognitive abilities, medicine might be a useful concept, Project award at the 2015 World this section of our community,” says stress and cardiovascular health,” says and worth implementing in clinical Architecture Festival. Homefarm SPARK director Stephen Pimbley. “Those Simon Secher, a consulting psychologist research systems.” Cyberjaya is a collaboration between entering retirement age are generally based in Denmark who advises Currently, medical research tends Singapore-based SPARK Architects and mentally and physically healthy. This is architects on this subject. More than to focus on one or two specific risk healthcare provider HSC, to be developed a new typology for residential living that 2,000 studies have shown a correlation factors related to chronic diseases, on a 6.5ha site in Cyberjaya, Malaysia. As seeks to retain the older generation with between physical surroundings, such such as smoking or alcohol. A systems- medicine approach aims to be more comprehensive, analyzing millions of patients’ data, and examining how ten various risk factors interact with each other in real-time. CASyM is acting with 22 partners from 11 countries to develop a platform for countries throughout Europe to implement systems medicine within a four-year period. If systems medicine proves to be effective in understanding pathways to chronic lot of those people get stuck in hospitals a leisure resort as much as a medical and architecture could make the later Above Hollwich Kushner’s disease it could be a useful resource — it’s not the proper design response and centre. “In the US, nursing homes were part of life fulfilling and happy. He has masterplan for BOOM in the fight to keep people away from it’s costing more and more.” for a long time just for the last stage just published the results in New Aging: Costa del Sol in Spain hospitals as people live longer into Buccini’s vision is to build a “medical of life,” he says. “But now we’re seeing Live Smarter Now to Live Better Forever. combines health, sport and advanced age. ecosystem” comprising many elements, that the ageing population want a nicer Some 90% of Americans want to age at entertainment facilities The biggest hurdle is data protection including care homes, doctors’ clinics, place, so they’re much more hospitality- home, but only a fraction are able to do with high-design housing legislation. If sensitive data is to be regular housing, a hospital and an oriented.” Such facilities offer general so, he points out. “This is why we have for people “who aren’t shared en masse, systems will have outpatient facility. These campuses life activities — office space, restaurants, to start a revolution, and redesign our content to give up living to be extremely secure. “It’s worked would be designed in such a way that shops, hotels, apartments — but with cities and buildings to allow all of us to life to the fullest” in the [mobile] banking sector, so why you couldn’t differentiate a hospital or healthcare services added on. live the life we want, all life long. We have wouldn’t it work in the medical sector?” a research facility from any of the other The changing age profile of society to facilitate social interaction, because says Taavi Tillman, a keen advocate of buildings: “These buildings used to is driving architects and developers to 50% of nursing home inhabitants are Right The Skyler tower systems medicine and a PhD fellow in be designed around the doctors and consider new ways of living that work there because of social deficits. We have concept by Hollwich public health medicine at University administrators, but now they’re being better for people not only when they are to provide opportunities for informal Kushner is designed to be College London.“Right now, medical designed around what the patient needs.” dependent on medical care, but for the exercise — running upstairs extends your a section through society, research is very ignorant of systems Then there are what Doug Lacy, vice lengthening window when they may life expectancy by six minutes — and with nurseries, office research. It wouldn’t just help research president at WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff in be retired but still relatively healthy. empower post-retirement work. We space, a business hub for on a national scale, but also on a Dallas, describes as “progressional age of When he turned 40, architect Matthias need ‘stealth care’: healthcare without retirees, healthcare and a global scale.”

life facilities” — a model that resembles Hollwich started exploring how society the stigma. Longevity is one of today’s spiritual centre Kushner Hollwich Visualizations

P14 25 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

to take their medication, or simply encourage them to follow healthy eating plans or to drink enough water. “We’re becoming a culture that expects there to be an app for everything, so why wouldn’t healthcare use the same sort of technology to become part of our daily lives?” points out Simon Kydd, global lead for healthcare for WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff. Mobile technology should also improve diagnoses: “It enables long-term measurements of the body’s activity, rather than relying only on measurements taken in an anxious state at the hospital.” For now, the majority of telehealth services make it easier for patients and their human doctors to communicate. But in the future, it’s likely that artificial intelligence will be involved at some point in the process. There are many start- ups now seeking to harness the mighty data-processing power of computers to develop new drugs or identify patterns in diagnoses. The French division of P23 SoftBank Robotics has even developed Left Softbank Robotics’ a 140cm-tall humanoid robot called SPARK Architects SPARK humanoid robot Romeo can Romeo, intended to be “a genuine open doors, climb stairs and personal assistant and companion”,

Visualization Softbank Robotics Photo help with daily tasks who will help with daily tasks, and learn users’ behaviour so that they can identify as the inflow of natural light and green try to create better spaces that relieve rather than going into hospital or Above A rendering of the a clinic to see a physiotherapist, or the unusual patterns. views from hospital beds, and patient stress for patients and staff, and where residential care. According to UK view from HSC’s medical “We expect there to be an app for everything, so why wouldn’t physiotherapist goes to their home, but All of this will comprise a major recovery, he adds. For example, in a they can get more daylight, more access telehealth provider Appello, postponing centre over the vertical farms they can’t go that often and it’s time- transformation in healthcare, which will 2008 study, patients recovering from to outdoor areas, more gallery space and entry into care for one year saves and gardens of Homefarm healthcare use the same technology to become part of our limited. With Mira, the physiotherapist inevitably meet resistance and raise abdominal surgery were randomly communal spaces. But here we are very £26,000 (US$32,000) in non-care costs. Cyberjaya, a mixed-use assesses the person and decides what questions of data protection, privacy assigned to rooms with or without plants. packed, so that limits what we can do.” Such solutions do rely on a good-quality development in Malaysia by daily lives?” Simon Kydd, WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff they need, but they are then able to and the appropriate role of robot carers. The group with plants experienced less One answer is to create a kind of broadband infrastructure being in place SPARK Architects remotely monitor how they’re doing, in But society has already demonstrated pain, fatigue and anxiety, and had lower vertical campus, containing many of to start with. Sweden is one of the world’s adoption would cut 53 billion kronor a key that can open their door. They comparison to, say, giving them a leaflet.” great capacity to adapt to technological blood pressure and heart rates. the same spaces you would find in a best connected countries, currently (US$8.2 million) from the country’s care actually think cameras are better.” Older people can be fearful of the change. And given the scale of the Giving patients access to greenery is horizontal one. Earlier this year, P&T working towards giving 90% of its bill by 2020. Another example of pioneering telecare technology, but Stanmore has found demographic challenge facing societies hardest in places where space is at a completed Gleneagles Hospital, where citizens a 100MB internet connection by Understandably, this initially met with is being trialled at the University of that they respond positively if they’re around the world, we can’t afford to premium. Hong Kong is an acute case — landscaped flat roofs connect treatment 2020. Municipalities are now looking to strong resistance from caregivers and Manchester in the UK. Mira Rehab is a provided with training and given enough dismiss possible solutions in any field, its 65-plus demographic is expected to zones and patient ward towers. capitalize on this, with digital homecare families, suspicious that homecare is remote physiotherapy software that uses time to get to grips with it. Although from more connected buildings to new double to 31% of the population within solutions that include assistive robots, being replaced with digital services a Microsoft Kinect motion-sensor camera it’s early days, feedback from patients social models and technologies. “There’s the next 20 years. But as one of the most The home front smart cameras and Facetime-like video and perhaps unsettled by the idea of to transform exercises into interactive indicates that it is already promoting no magic bullet but we’re going to have densely occupied places on Earth, the capabilities. “If you look at the cost of “Big Brother” style surveillance. But video games. By gamifying the exercises, independence: “One lady gave up driving to leverage technology to ensure that our only way to meet demand for healthcare The logical end point of decentralization homecare, it’s expected to increase by users themselves quickly adapt, says the patient is kept motivated throughout two years ago and she’s now starting ageing population can receive the care facilities is to build tall. is to provide as much care as possible in 20-25% in Sweden from now to 2020,” Wictorin: “It’s a big barrier before they the therapy and the clinical staff can again. That’s life-changing for her.” that they need,” as Michael Witecki, a “We read articles about new hospitals the home. In many developed countries, says Christian Wictorin, manager of have tested it. They say, ‘Ah, we don’t monitor their progress remotely. “This is There are many digital solutions that senior healthcare engineer based at WSP elsewhere in the world, where there is telehealth services that provide a virtual smart city solutions at WSP Parsons P13 want a camera looking at us.’ But not intended to replace physiotherapists attempt to engage patients in their Parsons Brinckerhoff’s innovation centre a lot of interaction with external spaces link between patients and doctors are Brinckerhoff. “They are asking, how when we do evaluation afterwards, we or practitioners, it’s to supplement them,” own health, from wearable fitness in Boulder, Colorado, puts it. “We can’t and greenery,” says Vivien Mak, a already making tentative steps into the can we make this work for society?” discover that the patients find it much says Emma Stanmore, a lecturer in trackers to myriad smartphone apps build fast enough, we can’t afford specialist in healthcare architecture at mainstream. These hold the promise The economic case is persuasive: ITC less intrusive than having someone nursing who is leading the NHS-backed that monitor heart rates, blood sugar to keep building, and we don’t have Hong Kong-based consultant P&T. “We of supporting people to stay at home, firm Acreo estimates that countrywide that comes to them at night-time, with project. “Traditionally, people come to or sleep cycles, remind people when enough doctors.”

P40 27 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES THE SMARTEST PLACE I KNOW MIKE STEEP / DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION EXPERT

“SEATTLE“SEATTLE IS IS THE ONE FIRST OF

THEMAJOR FIRST CITYMAJOR TO CITIES BE “Smart is the outcome of digital — it’s not the other way round. There are all these new technologies COMPLETELYTO BE DIGITIZED” DIGITIZED” that can dramatically change how a city operates”

don’t believe any city is yet at the ight now, I’d say Seattle is the ’m heavily involved in early- echnology is moving ahead so fast ’m also working with companies utonomous vehicles will make a hings we would never know here are very few people who can I point where it is quote-smart- R most digital place. It’s the first I stage technologies, working T that most companies are simply I like Japan Rail. They have installed A big difference. Instead of thinking T existed are likely to have a huge T see how new technologies will unquote. Nowhere has really taken it far major city that has been digitized with companies that are looking at not aware of many of these capabilities condition-based maintenance, a new of AVs as things that take you from point impact on our quality of life. There’s create new business opportunities. enough. People overuse the term. Cities [in a project led by WSP Parsons disruptive innovation and trying to or they don’t know what to do with type of analytics that can predict when A to point C, with LiDAR technology they a new scientific advance called “meta- It’s so mind-boggling that people don’t will claim to be smart when really they Brinckerhoff], meaning that all the data understand the implications. Because them. Cities are at just as much of a loss. a train is going to malfunction and could scan buildings as they’re driving materials” which makes it possible to really know what to do with it. Think haven’t yet made a major impact on the regarding its utilities, its roads, buildings I sit in Silicon Valley and I’m continuously A city is an enormous entity to manage, recommend a fix before it does. Door by and identify structural problems. They design extremely low-cost materials of it like the Model T when the car was quality of life of the inhabitants using and infrastructure is now being captured. talking to companies like Airbus or and most don’t have chief technology jams are a minor irritant for most people, could inspect buildings automatically that leverage the physics of energy. For first introduced. We’re probably just digital technologies. Then they can use 5D modelling to BMW, I see how emerging technologies officers. London is probably the most but they’re one of the biggest causes of and compare the data against predicted example, as roofing, these materials can pre-Model T now. Smart is the outcome of digital, it’s not project the economic impact of change. are being integrated into products and advanced in terms of putting the delays in Japan. All jams happen because wear and tear. And an AV has its own drop the temperature of a building by the other way around. There are all these That’s a major innovation — it makes it services and how that will connect up. governance in place. I’m a member of the of power fluctuations, so we can use network — it’s a moving wi-fi, it’s a 7°C without using any external power. Mike Steep is a visiting scholar new technologies that can dramatically possible to have intelligent data about Most of my work is on how technology Smart London board, overseeing digital software to monitor track and power mobile phone. With millions of these So all of a sudden, we could reduce the at Stanford Engineering and former change the way that a city operates and the economic impact of a new bridge or could change city infrastructure. So it’s projects in different sectors. There’s grids, predict when there’s going to be a vehicles on the road, they could create carbon footprint of buildings across an senior vice president of global business truly make it digital — leading to smart. tunnel or development. dramatic scientific improvements or new a 3D-modelling project called Virtual jam and adjust the power to the train. a wireless network throughout the city. entire city. That’s starting to be rolled operations at PARC Xerox forms of data analytics. For example, London and the Open Data Institute is That’s about five years out. out in prototype form, and usually when I’m working with insurance companies analyzing datasets to see how healthcare something goes to prototype it’s five to understand the role of predictive is being delivered throughout the city. years from the market. analytics in healthcare, to forecast what procedures are good or bad. Shutterstock Photo 29 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

Retail is important.

Global GDP [2] in 2015 Not only for the economy, but also for the health of towns and cities on every continent. For example, retail accounts for more than a US$73.4 US$22.8 quarter of all commercial real trillion estate in Europe. In 2014, trillion (US$53.7bn) was €48.7bn Global invested in retail assets in 26 retail sales European countries.[1] in 2015 [3]

But going to a physical shop 8.6% is no longer the only way Proportion of global to acquire the things we purchases made online 2016 “Over the next want. The growth of online Predicted global online 10 years, 12% of shopping has already purchases 2019 transformed the world’s everything that’s largest retail markets, and 12.8% will continue to do so. 26.4% sold in the world Between 2016 and 2019, e-commerce’s share of Number of people who’ve will no longer be made a purchase online in 2016 total retail spend will grow sold in stores. worldwide by 49%, from Predicted number of digital 8.6% to 12.8%.[4] buyers worldwide in 2019 If every store lost 32.8% [5] 12% of its business

Growth by region tomorrow, 90% of them would go broke. So between now

35% and 2025, the retail 24% 26% real estate world is going to need to 17% 65% reconfigure itself” 35% Bryan Gildenberg, [1] The Socio-Economic Contribution of European Shopping Centres, ICSC [2] World Bank [3,4,5,6] eMarketer [6] Kantar Retail 31 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

ChinaChina isis perhapsperhaps thethe most We are now in an dynamic retail market in “experience economy”. the world. E-commerce “In the West, we have probably hit peak stuff” Steve Howard, head of sustainability, IKEA

is massive, The higher government massive but Chinese consumers affordability of disposable restrictions on growth in have leapfrogged digital mobile internet + incomes – physical retail = mobile sales shopping and gone devices straight to mobile. As retailers must sell an experience rather than a FROM VIRTUAL product, a physical presence becomes On Singles’ Day — a 24-hour shopping festival — 69% of all even more important to their brand — TO REALITY transactions were made on a mobile device, up from 43% in 2014. even essential. Apple is an example of “Brick-and-mortar retail in China has grown quickly, but nowhere a retailer that seeks to sell its “culture” Pure-play online retailers are opening bricks-and- near as quickly as the Chinese economy. Through the digital through its stores. “Apple could easily sell mortar stores of their own — though they do not Number of of Chinese consumers its products on the internet but selling ecosystem that consumers now had in their hands, they could 19.6% shop online daily hours that the necessarily look like traditional models Apple Store that culture has made all the difference to access a branding ecosystem that they couldn’t buy in their towns. on New York’s its profit margin,” says Chris Lanksbury, This is particularly true for the 1.3 billion out of 1.4 billion citizens of Chinese consumers shop on their mobile Fifth Avenue is director of architect Chapman Taylor. Amazon’s bookstores in Seattle, San Diego 65% who don’t live in Greater Beijing, Greater Shanghai or Greater once a month (compared with 28% globally) closed “People are not just shopping to buy and Portland integrate online pricing and review things at the cheapest price. They’re information, and will automatically email you a receipt Guangzhou” Bryan Gildenberg, Kantar Retail buying into something else.” and add your purchases to your online history if you of Chinese consumers have never shopped on use a card linked to your Amazon account. 12% their mobile (compared with 46% globally) [1] The relationship Warby Parker’s growing network of US stores What are we buying online? * between off and online is bringing the Apple store experience to eyewear. shopping is a lot more fluid Fit-outs are meticulously assembled to look effortless, than previously thought. while tablet-based payments are genuinely effortless. 77% 76% 76% 73% 64% 62% 59% 57% 53% 52% 49% 45% 45% 90% of retail sales still involve 85% some contact with a store, of consumers report Menswear retailer Bonobos’ “guide shops” even if they do not go through they like to shop in have limited stock — their primary purpose is to let the cash register.[4] “It might be stores because they customers try on clothes before ordering online. items Home Home Books games Beauty Tickets apparel outdoor through a mobile device of your want to “touch and Services products Toys, kids Toys, Groceries Music and appliances Household and babies Sports and Electronics furnishings own or of the store’s while you’re feel the products” Google has opened a store in Currys PC World Fashion and Fashion [2] in store, or you might purchase before buying in London. Customers can draw their own Google * Percentage of respondents who bought online over three months in 2014, from 1,000 consumers online and collect in-store,” decisions. Doodle on the wall with a digital spray can and try in the US, the UK, Germany, Japan, Brazil, Russia, China, India, South Africa and Nigeria says Ed Cooke, chief executive out Android devices and Chromebook laptops. of UK retail industry body Revo. “And that doesn’t take into “We’ve seen a lot more retailers become account the wider marketing If an item was genuinely global so there’s more competition role that a store plays. Although available in a nearby “We know that 80% of people are more than comfortable with Retail is now about Total sales their function might be changing, store, online or on a Spending Spending in local markets, and at the same time, to increase by stores are still the absolute mobile device, 71% ‘showrooming’ — looking at their mobile phone when they’re EXPERIENCE. on vacations +27% on dining +27% there’s a slowdown in growth. So stores have We no longer need to go out epicentre of retailing.” of consumers would to be a lot more engaging. People are very in the shop, even to the point of purchase. A third are actually outside to acquire the 21.9% Jamie Murray Wells, industry opt to buy it in the things we want. [3] busy. If they’ve made the effort to come to a head of retail at Google UK, store. Just 3% would more comfortable doing that than talking to a shop assistant” So why do it? store, they want to feel it’s worthwhile. It’s agrees: “Our research shows buy it via a mobile Jamie Murray Wells, Google UK about going to a place and thinking ‘Wow, that for every mobile sale that device.[5] great experience’, even if you don’t buy we send a retailer online, we’re [1] [2] [3] anything” Neil Saunders, Conlumino also sending four people to their PwC Total Retail 2016 AT Kearney Connected Consumer Study 2014 Mintel’s American Lifestyles 2015 stores offline. Which is huge.” [4] Revo [5] TimeTrade State of Retail 2016 33 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

When everyone’s competing to offer a great The public experience, how do you set yourself apart spaces in and earn customer loyalty? between are just as, “The most successful shopping centres are the ones that have a relationship with the community, that offer if not more, something unique and which people identify as their own” Ken Christian, CallisonRTKL important.

“It’s about social spaces that happen “As the shopping Food and beverage to have shops or restaurants or experience becomes more of a is the most important weapon in cinemas,” says JLL’s Jonathan leisure activity in its own right, a shopping district’s arsenal — Doughty. “Shopping centres are you’re competing with films, music, because you can’t share a meal with becoming more like town or city theatre, dining out … So shopping is just friends on the internet (yet). “We have centres, with all the things that they one part of the whole leisure and lifestyle to give people layers of experience offer. Places like Westfield Stratford, equation,” says Ken Christian, director at now, and food and drink plays a huge Puerto Venecia in Zaragoza or design consultancy CallisonRTKL. part in that,” says Jonathan Doughty La Maquinista[2] in Barcelona have at JLL Foodservice Consulting. almost turned themselves inside out.” “The ‘wow’ of putting leisure into shopping centres has been around for And it’s not just a diet of the same old a long time. But with traditional leisure chains. “Customers are saying they’re elements you still tend to go and use bored: they want more choice, more them, and then leave. You have to go breadth. All around the world, people beyond that to make it more personal to are on a voyage of discovery. The more the community. That’s about authenticity. widely we travel, the more diverse “Pop Brixton is one of the What is interesting about that particular people’s food and drink requirements [2] [3] location? It might be a farmers’ become — they want to bring home what coolest retail environments market selling goods that are grown or they’ve experienced on holiday.” 20 years ago, 2% of a shopping centre might be devoted in the UK right now. It manufactured locally, or a roof or skip to places to eat and drink. Now it’s 20%.[1] garden where school kids can go and see is an amazing blend how carrots or potatoes are grown.” of community-focused This means not being a clone. In the In 2015, Urban Outfitters In some retailing, food & beverage past, there was an assumption that if surprised market watchers locations, it high streets offered the same national when it acquired a pizza chain, might be even higher. and performance venues and international chains as the shopping Vetri Restaurants, to boost “In Asia, developers are centres, shoppers would come. The sales by luring diners into much smarter at building which are supporting jobs, resulting “clone towns” hardly offer a its stores. properly integrated training and enterprise. compelling experience. “There was mixed-use shopping nothing unique,” says Christian, “and as a developments — they’re Not a shopping mall, result no emotional link. You didn’t have very clever about any local attachment to the authenticity generating continuous but a collection of local of the place.” “Anybody with a good idea in footfall,” says Doughty. entrepreneurs coming restaurants is interesting to “Their food offers can be 30% of the total space together to create a great landlords these days because because they create they’re listening to their customers” such density, with very experience” Ken Christian, Jonathan Doughty, JLL complementary uses.” [1] Jonathan Doughty, JLL Foodservice Consulting [2] La Maqinista / Sergio Flores / CallisonRTKL Wikimedia Commons [3] Pop Brixton / Su-May / Flickr 35 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

Interview: Nicola Farinetti, Shopping experiences will also be more chief executive, Eataly tailored to very specific demographics.

Italian food purveyor Eataly is recognized as one of the most exciting of a new breed of experience retailers. But what is it? “Twenty years ago, a whole family could go shopping in the same department store. That just doesn’t happen any more” Ken Christian, CallisonRTKL

The Possible: You’ve said that Eataly isn’t TP: With online shopping, people can actually like the other thing better. The thing how we stand out from the crowd. When Over-60s in the developed a market or a restaurant but something buy anything they need without leaving is discovering and being able to take risks I’m choosing my ham, I’m actually learning, world will generate 19% of global else altogether. How would you like home. What do retailers, developers, on your own. E-commerce is making the I’m having an experience. I’m talking with consumer spending between 2015 SILVER SERVICE people to think of it? store designers need to do differently to shopping experience less painful, but it’s not somebody, I’m not interacting with a robot. and 2030. This is more than the whole NF: I guess when I said that Eataly isn’t a attract people to their stores? making it fun, which is what we like to do. Most likely there is a producer in the store working-age population of China [1]. Respecting their elders proves lucrative for market, I meant Eataly isn’t a supermarket, NF: Retailers have always had this that particular day trying to tell the story, Shopping destinations will have to 78% German supermarkets … because we do think of Eataly as a market challenge. The merchant has always TP: Eataly is designed to be a unique trying to explain what he’s doing, why he’s adapt to accommodate this lucrative of millennials prefer — an old-style market like the Grand Bazaar thought in his mind, “What is my added experience for everyone who walks doing it, why the four generations are there market. PXL University College in to spend money in Istanbul or La Vucciria in Sicily or La value? Why should people come to my through the door. How do you create making the cheese and why their cheese is Belgium studied how supermarkets on an experience In Germany, one of the world’s fastest ageing populations, Boqueria in Barcelona. The supermarket store?” In the last 20 years most companies that experience and make it different for different and it’s spectacular. could be designed for older consumers than goods.[2] the supermarket chain Kaiser’s launched a new “Generations is the place of immediate. It’s the place answered that question on price, so each person? and found they wanted stores to be Market” with custom-designed trolleys with a built-in seat of rush, it’s the place of no information, everybody was just dropping prices and NF: For us it’s all a matter of the street TP: You’ve got an online business as easily accessible, with wider aisles, and magnifying glass. But the experience of going shopping is it’s the place of no talking, it’s the place of not offering them anything else. At Eataly, experience. You go to Eataly and you can’t well your real-world stores. How do they lower shelf heights, non-skid floors as important as the functional aspects — for many people in no people. A market is a place where you people have something within our stores decide if you want to eat, if you want to complement each other? and easily manoeuvrable trolleys, good this age group, shopping is a way of socializing and avoiding not only have an exchange of things but a that they will not get online. You might go shop, if you want to learn, if you want to NF: We’re trying the online business in order lighting, larger print labels and clear, loneliness. Kaiser’s also included a lounge-style rest area with cultural exchange. It’s a place where you can there looking for one thing and then go do all of those things, and I guess what we to understand who we should be in the obvious signage. leather couches, coffee and cake, while rival Adeg made a point learn more about how products are made, home with something else, because you really focus on is making sure that those online world. What we’re learning is that Teen fashion retailer Brandy of hiring friendly workers in the same age group as its target how people use their hands. talk with our guys, you understand that you three experiences are not bettered. This is the more we link our online shopping to the Melville sells its clothes in just market. Both chains reported increased turnover: 20% in Adeg’s real store experience, the better our results Millenials, now aged 18-34, one size and doesn’t do traditional Aktiv Markt 50+ and 25% in Kaiser’s Generations Market, are and the more people get engaged. So may have less money to spend now, but advertising: it has built a 21st-century compared to traditional stores. E-commerce is making the shopping we are moving from being an ordinary culturally they are incredibly influential. uber-brand almost entirely online experience for everybody and being “The thing about millennials is that they through Instagram. experience less painful, but it’s not making more focused on the people who actually still buy the bulk of their consumer goods shop in our stores. We try to connect those in a shop, even though they’re incredibly it fun, which is what we like to do two experiences by inviting those people well connected digitally and could buy to events, or by giving you something in anything they could ever want online,” exchange if you come to the store. Selling says Christian. “They crave and pursue items to somebody who is 2,000 miles the social experience of going out + COFFEE … from our stores is a little less intriguing. with their friends and sharing it on Hybrid stores blend diverse products to appeal to very It’s a little pointless. social media.” specific demographics and lifestyles.

TP: What’s your ambition for Eataly? Fashion + coffee Where do you hope the company will be Rather than designing shopping centres Outdoor gear + vintage vinyl in, say, five years? around function or anchors with mass Books + coffee NF: Our ambition is poetical, it’s not appeal, operators of different kinds will Vintage video games + streetwear numbers. Our ambition is to be recognized be clustered to create zones that cater Surfboards + coffee … as the most important Italian food brand in for specific user groups. So clothes for the world. Italy has Ferrari, Lamborghini in babyboomers will sit next to quality Or if you fancy something stronger, hit The Blind cars, we have Versace, Armani in fashion. dining options, teen fashion next to snack Barber in New York or Los Angeles, where you can get We have so many different brands in foods, and grocery shopping next to a shave in a speakeasy with a complimentary cocktail. furniture and design. But there is no Italian daycare facilities. brand that’s known for telling the story of Italian food all over the world. We would like [1] McKinsey Global Institute [2] Harris Poll survey 2014 to be that guy. [3] The Blind Barber, New York [3] 37 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

Shopping destinations must offer The defining characteristic of future shopping constant novelty. destinations might be their flexibility.

“Everybody’s trying to think of more interesting things to do with space, and that’s not just about “We’ll see more flexible spaces that can be adapted — one day it might be an art gallery, the next fashion architecture. You’ve got to continually create different events” Chris Lanksbury, Chapman Taylor students showing off their designs or a mini-museum” Neil Saunders, Conlumino

A continuously changing The average lease length project that, by 2050, carbon emissions mix of brands, food stops and POKEMON AND ROBOTS in a UK shopping centre is six years. from buildings must be reduced by 84 special events — so no visit is ever Ten or 15 years ago, retailers were signing gigatonnes — the equivalent of taking END OF THE ROAD the same. “As an activity, leaving home is Overlaying technology can make each visit 15, 20, 25-year leases.[3] “Now when we’re 22,000 coal-fired power stations offline. What will become of all that car parking space when cars can drop off losing share to staying home,” says Bryan different too. Tomorrow’s retail districts will designing a scheme, a retail unit may As governments invest in cleaner forms their passengers and park all by themselves? Gildenberg, chief knowledge officer feature a host of interactive technologies, all not end up being a retail unit — it might of energy, electricity will become the P12 at analyst Kantar Retail. “So we would designed to make the shopping experience more be a library,” says Ian Standring of dominant source of decarbonized power. expect to see significant consolidation personalized and more compelling WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff. “A food and Driverless cars are already on roads around the world. Predictions for in the spaces that people leave home to beverage unit might become a gym. widespread adoption range from just two years to 2030 at the earliest, but go to. Retail businesses will diversify into Or a market area might be split into “Retail assets often have a long design there seems little doubt that they will eventually become the norm. Cars healthcare, entertainment, education, A mall in Albany, New York, has converted five separate retail units in future, or that can park themselves need less room to manoeuvre and there is no nail salons, pet care … Why wouldn’t 500 its lobby into a Pokémon Go arena, while a pizza converted into a community facility. That life — up to 60 years. That’s a lot need to leave space for the driver to get out. Neither do they need to park Walmarts turn into daycare centres?” [1] restaurant in Queens saw food and drinks sales spike has big implications for construction, so of investment, and a lot of potential so close to shops — they could wait at a storage hub at the edge of town. Let us entertain you by 30% after it installed “Lure Modules” to attract we have to think about it early on.” change, so flexibility adds value. Moving And if people no longer owned their own cars but simply ordered one from Pokémon — and the customers stalking them. a shared pool, that would reduce the need for local parking even further. Just complete, Chapman Taylor’s Mall of Qatar in Doha is This will even extend to the external to decarbonized electricity has a spatial “We’re looking at how we can convert car parks to alternative uses in Some retailers are experimenting with 400,000m2 — equivalent to 50 FIFA football pitches — with In Sephora’s Milan store, an augmented reality walls. Are you inside or outside? Maybe impact. If you haven’t factored in future — to retail, or leisure or perhaps even residential,” says Hammerson’s pop-up formats to keep their offering a giant performance space at its heart. The Oasis will host daily mirror allows shoppers to see what different colours neither, maybe both. In temperate flexibility, it could be costly later on” Robin Dobson. “We’re looking at what they’re made from, how we lay out fresh, either within existing stores or entertainment shows. “It’s absolutely enormous. They’re going look like on their own face without removing their climates, shopping centres will have an the grids, whether we can take floors out, or change the configuration.” in new locations. US department store to have an 80-person theatre group permanently on site. In own make-up. increasing ambiguous relationship to Ian Standring, WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff “Autonomous vehicles will be transformational,” adds Rachel Skinner, Nordstrom, for example, runs curated a market that is so competitive, they’ve got to have a distinct the surrounding city — they might be development director at WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff. “We can redesign monthly events under the Pop-In@ advantage,” says Chapman Taylor’s Chris Lanksbury. Slovenian cosmetics brand AlpStories has designed as part of the streetscape, with our town squares, reclaim our driveways and build more densely in cities. Nordstrom brand. They might be themed an in-store robot that formulates personalized doors that are only closed at night or once [4] If planned properly, there will be more space for urban retail, commercial — previous themes include road trips, cosmetics while you wait. a year. “We want to create the very best and leisure activities, we will have more pleasant places to live, and we can France, poolside glamour and community internal and external worlds, and allow enjoy more open and green spaces.” — or organized in partnership with Robot greeters are already advising shoppers them to blend seamlessly so that we In tomorrow’s much denser cities, development will be based around brands such as Nike, Topshop or Aesop. in Lowe’s hardware stores in the San Francisco drive activity all year round,” says Robin communal rather than personal transport, says Stan Laegreid of Seattle- Bay area, serving KFC customers in Shanghai and Dobson, director of retail development based architect MG2. “Transit hubs will become the new downtown urban will soon be taking orders at Pizza Hut restaurants at Hammerson. “There are always times centres. I don’t think people recognize how significant transit-oriented across Asia. when you’ll need a more controlled design is in moulding future urban environments. For our cities, it means environment. We want the ability to we will have more districts or nodal cities within a CBD.” In The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Klaus Schwab, make external spaces internal when the founder of the World Economic Forum, predicts that weather dictates, and to create internal 30% of retail jobs will be lost to artificial intelligence spaces and then take the roof off to make by 2025. a truly external world.” In 2015, Swedish fashion giant H&M popped up on London’s trendy Retail spaces consume a Brick Lane for just six weeks, with a lot of energy, and the source of this specially curated clothes offer and energy is changing too. At the UN subtle indie-style branding. climate talks in Paris in December 2015, nearly 200 world leaders committed to holding global warming to less than of a retail salesperson’s activities have the potential to be automated.[2] 47% 2°C. The World Green Building Council [1] Visualization: Chapman Taylor [2] McKinsey & Company [3] Revo [4] Visualization: Making Better Places: Autonomous Vehicles and Future Opportunities, WSP Parsons and the International Energy Agency Brinckerhoff / Farrells 39 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE SPACES

Behind the scenes, the supply networks that serve We are on the cusp of a datadata revolution.revolution. shopping districts are changing too.

“Our research shows that freight consolidation centres could reduce the number of vehicles “It’s about getting inside the mind of the consumer. The data collected allows us to look at where and how people shop, coming into town and city centres by up to 70%” Richard Jones, WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff and which tenants work together. If I’m a John Lewis shopper, where else might I shop?” Robin Dobson, Hammerson

Retailers need to offer a centre empty, they could take back Fewer deliveries and What if you could attach a Parsons Brinckerhoff. “The more data Using this technology across constant stream of new products, packaging and other waste for recycling. cleaner power means fresher air — tracker to every customer and find we can gather, the more efficient we can a whole city would be even more and have it available in every size, every and that’s important for wellbeing. out where they live, where and when make the retail experience, and we can powerful. “The retail plan of cities Mastercard provides the colour, every store, all the time. Or they Consolidation centres could be used as Wellbeing has been described as they shop, what they buy and how much start to drive efficiencies in the design.” changes as there is new development technology for 2.3 billion cards could just keep it all nearby, ready to be click-and-collect pick-up points, perhaps “the new sustainability” — but that’s they spend? How would that change Pedestrian data could also be used to in different areas and streets become globally, which conduct 52 billion called up at a moment’s notice … next to park-and-ride schemes: “You significantly underselling the pace at the shopping environment? We are all plan where retailers sit within a shopping weaker and stronger,” says Selvey. “If you transactions a year. could jump on the bus into town, walk which it has captured the corporate leaving a growing trail of data through centre: “Start analyzing your pedestrian could take the footfall systems that are Type a place into Google and you Advances in technology have made around the shops and buy goods on your imagination. Since the World Green our bank cards, where we go with our flow, understand it properly, and you can installed in shopping centres and overlay can immediately find out when it’s freight logistics more efficient, reducing smartphone. All of the goods are picked Building Council published a landmark mobile phones, what we look at on the revise the leasing plan to drive footfall.” them onto the retail district of a city, you most busy, based on tracking the overall number of delivery vehicles at the consolidation centre, so that by the report in 2014 on health and wellbeing internet, what we watch on television … could analyze the streets and decide data gathered from Android required. But the frequency of deliveries time you get back, they’ve been delivered in office environments, the financial Big Data could also enable how to strengthen them. Say we have phone users. is starting to increase. “The typical to your car,” says Jones. benefits have won it a global fanbase. Retailers will be using this data to social landlords to set fairer rents. the tracked flow for a KidZania, we could weekly or bi-weekly deliveries to towns target customers ever more precisely Contracts based on store turnover no look at the ripple effects — what would or shopping centres still go on,” says Or distribution centres For retailers, wellbeing could become with offers. These can be delivered longer work in an omni-channel world, it do to the traffic coming in and the flow Richard Jones, director and retail logistics might come to us, suggests Chris another point of differentiation. The UK directly to smartphones using beacons when footfall may translate into online through the city?” specialist at WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff, Lanksbury at Chapman Taylor. “They Green Building Council has developed — low-power Bluetooth devices that or mobile sales. “With Big Data analysis “but with click-and-collect, customers could become anchor tenants within a a framework for analyzing the impact broadcast to phones that come within it is possible to assign a value to the want to pick goods up the next day or shopping centre. You could buy a product of factors such as air quality, daylight, range. In 2021, the number of beacons time spent by customers in the mall or even the same day. So there’s a larger online and go to the shopping centre to acoustics and landscaping in retail worldwide will hit 500 million.[2] Retailers in a single store and calculate the rent Globally, there are 5 billion network of smaller vehicles taking goods pick it up.” environments. And the WELL Building and restaurants account for 77% of all of a commercial property from that,” mobile phone subscribers. to stores from distribution centres.” Institute has established a pilot standard beacons and 81% of all beacon activity.[3] says Lorenzo Gallosti of WSP Parsons 80% of the mobile phones sold And if retailers can call stock up quickly, for retail, which is being trialled at a Brinckerhoff. “We’ve developed a in Q1 2016 were smartphones.[4] To manage traffic congestion, local they don’t need large stock rooms: with branch of TD Bank in Maryland. This data can also be used to create footfall-based model, which takes into 86% of the world’s smartphones authorities and property owners have freight consolidation, large retailers at more successful shopping environments. account tenants’ standard revenue, use Google’s Android operating begun exploring freight consolidation, Meadowhall in Sheffield can operate Anonymized pedestrian flow data is operating margins and pedestrian system. 13% use Apple’s iOS.[5] where deliveries from many suppliers from an on-site stockroom of just 1-2% already used to plan developments: how flow. The underpinning algorithm is a are centralized in a hub on the edge of of total floor area, rather than 30%.[1] “The millennials are living up to their transport interchanges should be laid out complex combination of the number town, and then combined in a smaller “Most brick-and-mortar stores will have reputation as disrupters. They seem to avoid congestion, how many lifts and of visitors and cumulative shopping number of delivery vehicles. Deliveries less space devoted to products, which focused on their health, and use escalators will be needed and where they time that links historical and real-time to store can be made using electric — or means they have more space to devote should be. “It’s about better designed data, making it nearly impossible to autonomous — vehicles, and planned to something else,” says Kantar Retail’s technology to chronicle their every buildings,” says Adam Selvey at WSP misrepresent reality.” to avoid peak hours. Trained drivers Bryan Gildenberg. “That’s the fascinating movement — up to 75% monitor their and specially adapted vehicles could go question that retailers and developers daily activities. I think we’ll see more into sensitive pedestrianized areas. And are going to have to answer: what’s that instead of returning to the consolidation something else?” Developer Stockland in yoga studios, athleisure retailers, “You could track the road network and how people flow from car parks to offices Australia has made fresh, healthy spas. Outdated spaces present an to retail and everything else. Planners could use this to decide what should be food a key part of its offering at opportunity to create wellness zones, developed where, or model interventions: where should the car park go, what the Wetherill Centre in western should that site be used for? We could masterplan cities based on knowledge and “85% of consumers report that if they try on clothes in a dressing room and Sydney, as well as cycling and activity centres and collections of data about how that city reacts” Adam Selvey, WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff find they need a different size, but no associate is available, they would consider shower facilities. health and wellness product lines abandoning the dressing room and leaving the store altogether” within existing shopping centres”

TimeTrade, The State of Retail 2016 Stan Laegreid, MG2 [1] Freight Consolidation and Remote Storage, WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff and BCSE Educational Trust [2] ABI Research [3] Reveal Mobile, June 2016 [4] Ericsson Mobility Report Q1 2016 [5] Gartner, Q2 2016 41 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE THE HUMAN FACTOR

“I CAME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT TECHNOLOGY WASN’T GOING TO BE AN AWFUL LOT OF USE. WHAT YOU WANTED WAS HUMANITY”

Sixty years ago, Heinz Wolff invented bioengineering. Now he has invented an entirely new approach to elderly care — a system that relies on man rather than machine

WORDS BY KATIE PUCKETT

rofessor Heinz Wolff works in co-found the British-Soviet joint venture P a building that bears his name, that sent Britain’s first astronaut to the surrounded by a lifetime of his own Mir space station in 1991. Back on Earth, inventions — machines for Antarctic he has spent several decades developing explorers, astronauts, soldiers, divers, assistive technology to support the care people with disabilities, people with of elderly and disabled people. arthritis. Now aged 88, the father of But Wolff’s current preoccupation is bioengineering still comes to Brunel not a scientific problem but an economic University in west London five days a one: how cash-strapped Western week to continue his pioneering work. societies can afford to care for a much Wolff coined the term bioengineering larger elderly population, as life-spans in 1954, to describe the application of lengthen and birth rates fall. And for engineering principles to biological and the first time in his long career, he medical challenges. His first invention, doesn’t think technology can provide the straight out of school in the immediate answer — a shift in thinking that he has aftermath of the Second World War, was compared to a religious conversion. a machine that could count blood cells “I came to the conclusion that if you’re automatically. He went on to spend 30 having to care for a large number of years at the Medical Research Council, to elderly people who were not necessarily chair a committee advising the European in total control of their cognition, then Space Agency on the uses of micro- technology wasn’t going to be an

Nicola Lyn Evans Nicola Lyn Portraits gravity for scientific research, and to awful lot of use. What you wanted was 43 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE THE HUMAN FACTOR

humanity. Care is really inseparable from early development of G&TC before its the action of people with hands, and “If you analyse what we’re doing, it’s really a confidence trick grant funding came through. sympathetic ears and empathetic minds.” Wolff clearly has a flair for business, Technology can make the work of … but it may save the National Health Service as we know it” like his father — a frustrated chemist but carers easier, but it can’t replace care: successful businessman, who deployed “Of course there’ll be new inventions, creative accountancy to help Jewish P18 but I suspect we have reached the limit The country would be divided into a game of chess three times a week, refugees escape Nazi Germany. “There of biological acceptance of some of the localities of 5,000-10,000 homes, alright, Give & Take Care will produce was a Catch-22 situation, where you new technology, that it’s overtaking us. in which Wolff estimates 10% of that. I don’t quite know who earns the weren’t allowed to take any money with This may be a function of my age — not households would be in need of care. For GATs. Whoever wins the game perhaps you, but most countries wouldn’t let you approving of all this newness and putting each locality, there would be between — so you’re gambling with your GATs …” in unless you had some money. My father more emphasis on human nature.” four and six organizers who match A key aspect of G&TC is the UK’s invented a number of ingenious ways caregivers and receivers by needs and 6.5 million informal carers who already of allowing people to build up balances A matter of give and take availability, and are themselves paid provide 70% of elderly care for relatives. abroad. I cannot imagine what he was in GATs. The scheme will not run on With the agreement of the regulator, the thinking of, but I was present at some of Wolff’s big idea is Give&TakeCare, a thin air of course: there will be a small Care Quality Commission, they will be these discussions and therefore knew a reciprocal time-banking scheme in which annual membership fee of £2-5, and able to earn up to five hours’ credits a day great deal about financial vocabulary at a people give up several hours a week to every time someone spends a GAT, they if they join a local charity as a partner. very early age.” look after a local elderly person, earning pay a nominal sum of about £1 — much GATs do not have to be redeemed in the After a lifetime spent working on credits that will pay for their own care in less than the market rate for an hour of same locality, and they could be donated technological systems, how does later life. It’s a deceptively simple idea, care. This would be used to pay G&TC’s to relations in greater need. developing a human system compare? but making it into a sustainable business running costs. To capitalize the system “Well I think, because of my lack of model has taken years of calculations, at the start, people in need of care will The social engineer experience and the fact that you have and problem-solving as complex as be issued with free GATs — just another to interact with a lot more people, the anything he has done. Working with a form of quantitative easing, Wolff says. Engaging, genial and completely at ease social bit is harder. But I’ve preached Brunel colleague, Dr Gabriella Spinelli, There’s a lot of data processing, he says, with cameras and microphones, Wolff is to students that if you’re reasonably he has secured a government innovation but not as much as you might think. Let’s a consummate communicator, with 25 intelligent, intelligence is a bit like grant of more than £1m (US$1.2m) to say people are matched for a trial period years of television behind him and many money, you can use it for almost any make the scheme reality. A team is in of two weeks: “At the end of the fortnight, more on the after-dinner circuit, though purpose. I think it’s a mistake to say that place, a community interest company has either they say ‘We can get on with one these days he says he tends to wilt after your intelligence will only work for the been set up and they have cleared many another’, or ‘I can’t stand the woman, can 8pm. For the generation who grew up in reproductive processes of earthworms, administrative and regulatory hurdles. you introduce me to somebody else?’ the 1970s and 80s watching the BBC, that you’ve been created for that The next step is to sign up 6-10 charities that have been ruptured as people 2 million people in the UK over 65 who So let’s assume it’s alright, and they Wolff is not just the archetypal “mad particular objective in view. It’s often a to give a “soft start” to the scheme at “I’ve preached to students that if you’re reasonably work longer hours and live further from have nobody nearby — no children, no are now becoming friends, and one day professor” with his twin shocks of hair tiny change which diverts your interest a local level, and the first few have just their families. Traditional volunteering wives, no siblings — and that’s terrible. the caregiver says ‘Look, do you mind and colourful bowties, he is the original from one subject to another. I wouldn’t come on board. Within two years, Wolff intelligent, intelligence is a bit like money, you can use has declined, but appealing to people’s What is going to happen to those people having your breakfast a bit earlier on on which the image is based. He is still have minded being a lawyer.” hopes it will be self-sustaining with “enlightened self-interest” could help to if something like Give&TakeCare didn’t Wednesday, my son’s going on a school regularly spotted in the street and people The question Wolff is most often asked 50,000 “partners”, though the real goal it for almost any purpose” swell the ranks once more. That said, exist to recreate a proxy family?” trip and I’ve got to see him off?’, and recognize his distinctive German accent is what guarantee people have that their is to get to 1 million by the end of 2018 — to get off the ground, G&TC will not only the care receiver will say ‘Of course’. on the phone too — “even on a cold call!” GATs will be honoured when the time only as a nationwide scheme can the full as people age, Wolff believes. His wife an enemy because its dials were different, have to recruit the masses who don’t The family GAT These are micro give and takes which “If you want to popularize science, you comes. Record-keeping and storage are benefits be realized. of 62 years died in 2014, having suffered and even the layout of the flat became do voluntary work, but to reconcile the never touch administration, but show have to somehow get people to like you. obviously important, he says, but that’s Existing health and social care systems from symptoms of dementia, a trauma an enemy because the bedroom wasn’t minority who do to getting something in These new families will be founded on how a society is growing and people are This doesn’t mean having a Nobel Prize not enough. “The only guarantee is that will not be able to provide a decent from which he is still recovering. “To be where it ought to be. That absolutely return — in this sense, it is revolutionizing exchanges between neighbours. For every beginning to behave towards one another or being the world’s best, but to get a the next generation, not having been quality of life for frail elderly people — a sole carer of somebody where logic convinced me that staying where you are the idea of charity work twice over. hour of care that a partner provides to like they would in a community.” bit of empathy. I always imagine my brought up with the expectation that only a moneyless system will be able to no longer works, where you can’t say ‘If is as big a contribution to your quality of Wolff doesn’t think there is necessarily an elderly person living nearby, they earn People could be care givers and audience as having horses’ ears that are the state will look after them, will not be meet society’s needs. Or as Wolff puts it: so-and-so, then so-and-so will happen’ life as anything else.” G&TC’s strapline is a tension in a more caring society that is “GATs” (give and takes) for an equivalent receivers at the same time: “If you’re a directed towards me, and if I lose them, entirely feckless.” “If you analyze what we’re doing, it’s really — it was a very difficult time in my life.” “familiarity breeds contentment”. founded on self-interest: “These things amount of time to spend on whatever bed-ridden lady who needs seven hours they turn away from me and I have to do This is why persuasion and promotion a totally moral confidence trick. We are Joan’s illness was not the reason for his But he feels that the importance are not mutually exclusive. Even such they need in the future — time being a week or more, but is marvellous on the something to get them back. This is why will be key to the success of G&TC, making people work an extra four or five epiphany, but it has perhaps contributed of independent living is overplayed: a primitive thing as bringing up your a currency that is immune to inflation. phone, she might be assigned a couple I never use scripts, because that would not only now but for generations to hours a week so they are actually paying to the zeal with which he has approached “Independence can be next-door children — you love your children but These are held in their own care savings of lonely people, and she can earn herself prevent me from looking at the audience come. Creating the “more caring, more for their own care in advance — it’s a new G&TC. They downsized too late, he says, to loneliness. You can be totally it’s probably a little bit of self-interest account. To ensure the safety and stability GATs by chatting with them twice a and seeing what impact I’m having.” community-oriented society” that he resource which wasn’t there before. What when they were about 80. “We should independent but also extremely lonely as well.” Volunteering, altruism and of partners’ savings, G&TC is intended week. As long as there are people who He invested his speaking income in the envisages is nothing less than a feat of we’re doing may even save the National have done it 10 years earlier. My wife was because you never actually see anybody.” philanthropy are all admirable things, to be self-contained and completely need something you can provide, say stock exchange, and used the proceeds social engineering. Wolff already has Health Service as we know it.” desperately unhappy. Everything was Wolff’s goal is rather more ambitious: to he says, but they will not be enough independent of any government, being able to play chess. If all a person to fund his institute at Brunel, which has an illustrious legacy, but this may be his Remaining at home is vitally important strange. The washing machine became rebuild the community support systems on their own. “By 2020, there will be commercial interest or charity. really wants is for somebody to give him always been self-financing, as well as the greatest achievement yet. 45 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE THE HUMAN FACTOR THE CREATIVITYENIGMA

Ping pong tables, pod chairs, beach huts and giant slides — is this really what it takes to make us more creative at work?

WORDS BY LIZ HOLLIS

reativity has never been more the components of creativity — drawing C popular. Chief executives believe on advances in psychology and it is the most important leadership neurobiology to unpick what was once quality for success in business, according considered an elusive preserve of artistic to a recent IBM study, ranking it higher genius. Will it ever be possible to find than global thinking and integrity. a formula to develop and nurture the Companies are redesigning their offices creative mind? and revamping their corporate cultures, all in the name of encouraging creatives Death of the genius to do their best work. “Not all industries require creative The “creative mind” is itself a problematic people but some will surely fold without concept. The lone genius has been a them,” says occupational psychologist seductive idea for centuries, and the Dr Mike Rugg-Gunn. “For them, creativity earliest attempts to subject creativity is a strategic imperative. The better we to scientific inquiry started from understand what makes people more the assumption that such people creative, the better companies can shape have a pattern of innate personality an effective creative culture.” traits. Founded in 1949, the Institute And yet the more that business tries of Personality and Research at the to lure “star talent” or nurture creativity, University of California invited some the more slippery the concept becomes. of the world’s most renowned creative Employer tactics such as attractive people, from author Truman Capote salaries or quirky workspaces might to architect Eero Saarinen, for analysis. even stifle imagination rather than Its researchers noted recurring encourage it. Scientists are now applying characteristics, from non-conformism to

Brett Ryder Artwork a systematic approach to understanding rating their ideas above other people’s 47 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE THE HUMAN FACTOR

imaging to reveal what actually happens “Paying above market value is not necessarily going to hire you when we undertake creative tasks, it’s turning out to be a lot more complicated. HOW DO YOU WORK? the best creatives” Dr Terry Dockery, business psychologist Scientists at the University of Utah Jean-Paul Viguier / architect / Jean-Paul Viguier et Associés / Paris scanned the brains of more than 1,000 people and found that they did not tend and preferring complexity and ambiguity interaction are just as important. “People to have a stronger left or right-sided o me, creativity very much relates over simplicity and order. work with other people, although it’s brain. Creativity doesn’t reside in a “Tto movement, to action. Creative Once you’ve defined what makes a not always acknowledged,” Taylor single side or part of the brain but fires people start by making up their mind creative, it’s just a matter of attracting says. “Quite a lot of the most famous in different regions depending on what to do something, but then they have these people to work for you, right? photographs that were credited with stage of the creative process you’re at to test it in a real situation. This is Unfortunately, this rarely works. changing the fashion industry were and what you are actually doing. If you particularly true of architects — if I just “Superstars” from one company often actually created by the stylist. The output are brainstorming for a new marketing design projects and have theories about fail at another, as Wired journalist Bryan of one person — the photographer — slogan, for example, that might architecture, I do not accomplish my Gardiner recently noted, citing the is the product of a number of people activate the Broca and Wernicke areas, work completely. You have to build the example of Ron Johnson, the creator of contributing.” responsible for language. But attempting projects that you have imagined. Apple’s Genius Bar who lasted just 17 The misapplication of science has also to visually rotate a physical object in your But I have a friend who is a psychiatrist months as chief executive of JC Penney. encouraged a misguided distinction mind’s eye, such as working out how to fit who says that the time you are most “Star talent is partly innate, sure,” between creative and non-creative moving parts of a new product together, creative is when you do nothing — if you Gardiner wrote, “but it’s also linked to personalities. Traditionally, we’ve might activate the Dorsal attention/ take a picture of the brain, that’s when specific teams or projects or just the categorized people into either “right- visuospatial networks. it is most active. It’s a very interesting culture of the company.” brained” creative thinkers or “left- paradox. When I am seated in an airport Psychologist Dr Stephanie Taylor brained” logical, rational types. There are Finance is control doing nothing and waiting for the next agrees that we need to think beyond shelves full of popular self-help books to plane, I’m very creative, because I’m in a the notion of the special talent who enable people to increase their creativity There’s another reason why hiring stimulating environment and my brain is will produce the goods on demand. by tapping into their right brain. creativity often fails. Businesses may running at high speed.

Favourable circumstances and social But as cognitive neuroscience uses brain be able to lure talent with an attractive Sometimes I’m looking for contact and Lyon le Réverbère, JacquesGalerie Damez, Portrait salary package, but there is no inherent movement, and sometimes I want to be link between money and innovative by myself. It takes a little bit of training thinking. “Paying above market value is to be able to put yourself outside of your “When I am seated in an airport doing nothing and waiting for FIVE WAYS TO BOOST CREATIVITY * not necessarily going to hire you the best environment — I can be in a crowd with a the next plane, my brain is running at high speed” creatives,” says business psychologist lot of noise and a lot of people and I don’t (* that might actually work) Dr Terry Dockery. “Creative people hear the noise and I don’t see the people. all the time from the view, the air, the hot the south of France at Castres-Mazamet, obviously work for money, but they need Another word that is very important or cold, the garden on the terrace. In the and then on a cancer research institute more than a cash reward to motivate to me is “synergetic”. I try to put things past, spaces were designed to be very in Toulouse, and it worked very well. them to come up with more ideas.” together. Here in France, the education specific to what they were used for, but At the beginning, the doctors were system separates the disciplines, they are becoming much closer to each very sceptical but they noticed that the 1 2 3 4 5 particularly at university. That’s why other. We are designing offices that you patients were more relaxed and more I decided to study for a masters in city could live in — the couches and materials prepared for treatment. It has even Pottery or language classes Distant thinking Brainwriting Get closer Stimulating objects planning at Harvard. The electrical are the same as you have at home — and facilitated healing to a certain extent. engineering department was just next the reverse is true of our homes. I try to select projects that push Creativity flourishes when workers A study from Indiana University Studies show that we Data from Sociometric Solutions, A study into Harnessing Creativity door so architects and engineers were What prevents me from being creative? you to be creative. I think that creative move outside their comfort zone, showed that increasing overestimate the success of a US-based company that and Innovation in the Workplace all talking with each other. I love this Stress — I think it is very inhibiting. This architecture is when you add something broaden their knowledge and do psychological distance makes group brainstorming as members analyzes communication patterns from Cornell University found that type of unexpected encounter and the is something I have realised about myself, to the commission, and you answer a something they’ve never done things seem more abstract and often fail to contribute for fear of in the workplace, found that we workplace creativity needs objects fact that you learn from others’ points and I try to apply it to my projects too. question that has not been asked by your before, according to research from increases creativity. The next time appearing stupid. Instead, write need to sit near others to interact. such as journals, art and other of view. For instance, when you go into hospital as client. That’s what makes architecture the University of California. This you’re stuck for insight, project ideas on paper and pass to others Research by Dr Christian Catalini items that are not directly related My office is an old industrial building, a patient, you feel a tremendous amount interesting and it is also what makes makes for more diverse knowledge the problem further into a remote in the group who then add their from the Massachusetts Institute to the business, as well as a range and it illustrates this idea of the of stress and I think that the way we architecture an art, because a piece of art which creates new neural future or a faraway place — for own ideas to the list. of Technology found co-location of traditional and non-traditional unexpected very well — it was a factory design hospitals can help to relieve this is something that you do not reproduce. connections as well as boosting example, ask “how would we solve increases the likelihood of communication tools, from white making welded furniture for hospitals. — the shape of the building, the quality It is a unique answer to a question. A conversation and interaction. this if it was happening serendipitous collaboration by a boards to coloured crayons. We have transformed it into a space that of the light, the materials, the ambience client has an idea of what he wants, but 2,000 miles away or 100 years multiple of 3.5. is very free and open, and replaced the of different spaces, the fact that you can what you propose and how the project ahead?” This makes it seem less roof with a steel and glass box. It’s not a welcome your family when they visit. ends up is unexpected. That’s why likely and allows you to come up flat environment — there is stimulation I applied this theory on a hospital in architecture is so exciting.” with greater insight. 49 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE THE HUMAN FACTOR

psychological research that implies a stimulates new thinking better than more complex relationship between a dull environment. This is the theory “The Google effect has promoted the idea that work is HOW DO YOU WORK? money and creativity. A recent study underpinning the fad for more playful Ron Slade / structural engineer / WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff / London published in the Journal of Creativity and office decor among West Coast creative somehow a playground, and this can infantilize your staff” Innovation Management suggests that tech companies like Google and Apple, Jeremy Myerson, Royal College of Art, London while extrinsic financial rewards might with their beach-hut meeting pods and not help creatives come up with ideas, giant slides. the prospect of being rewarded may help But some are sceptical. Jeremy organize their own space and collaborate Daydreaming and learning to fail them persevere to fully develop them and Myerson, professor of design at the Royal better when they are sitting within focus on the finer details of an innovation. College of Art in London and the author 18 metres of one another,” says Kursty While Myerson may be right that of several books on the 21st-century Groves, author of Spaces for Innovation: objects such as ping pong tables are The pursuit of happiness workspace, believes that introducing The Design and Science of Inspiring often “whimsy for whimsy’s sake”, novelty into the workplace can go Environments. “Creatives perform distraction does serve a purpose. While money might not be integral to badly wrong. “The Google effect has better if they can rearrange the chairs, Engineer-turned-innovation-consultant creativity, happiness almost certainly promoted the idea that work is somehow choose the colours or change the height Anne Miller, author of How to Get is — again, undermining many lone- a playground, and this can infantilize your of the tables, for example.” Psychology Your Ideas Adopted, says that genius myths. Sadness and neutral staff,” he says. While it may have worked experiments from the University of daydreaming is an essential ingredient moods inhibit creative ideas compared for the likes of Google, the ensuing Exeter seem to confirm this, finding of creativity. The “hypnagogic state”, to a playful, upbeat mood, according to a trend has had a detrimental effect on that workers are more productive similar to that experienced just before study by Dr Karen Gasper at Penn State workplace efficiency in companies with intellectually when they are empowered sleep, is a haven for incubating solutions University — perhaps because a lower a different culture, with workers simply to design their own workspace rather and new ideas. “The creative process mood makes us more likely to judge our playing on the ping pong table instead than having predetermined space needs alternating periods of focus ideas negatively. So how — apart from of working. configurations thrust on them. and quieter, daydreaming reflection,” giving them creative tasks to do — do you Perhaps more important than a Miller says. Evans Nicola Lyn Portrait make creative people happy? physical manifestation of creativity is the Of course, there is a delicate line ngineers enjoy problem-solving rarely any situation where something The answer for an increasing number need for workers to take ownership of between creative daydreaming and “Eand that’s when we are at is brand new — ways of defying gravity of companies is the “fun” workspace, their workspace and not have changes time-wasting — and this perhaps cuts to our most creative. Problem-solving have nearly always been investigated which acts as both an inspiration for, imposed from above. “Workers think the heart of what defines a truly creative takes time — quality time, unhindered by our predecessors. But we have to and a physical manifestation of, a deeper more creatively when they are allowed to culture. For creatives to do their best by people or outside events or the be able to think creatively in order to creative corporate culture. One such work and for companies to allow them telephone. That said, to develop ideas, explore various options. In construction, company is software giant Autodesk — to do it requires a culture of mutual trust. I think you do need to be under some it’s important to understand how things ranked by Fortune magazine as one of This means people are able to try things degree of pressure and to feel the are put together, and that knowledge the world’s great places to work. out without fearing the repercussions if tension of everyday life. If I’ve got a assists the quest for solutions. Everyone A meta-analysis of 128 studies led by the organization is striving to achieve “It starts with a really relaxed work they mess up, points out Dockery. “Not problem to solve and I come in early to uses the expression “thinking laterally” Edward Deci, a psychology professor something that has greater meaning. environment,” says vice-president of everything is a home run and failure is deal with it, I’m still under pressure but but in structural engineering, thinking at the University of Rochester and one Rugg-Gunn, author of board briefing learning and development Ian Mitchell. an essential part of the creative process,” I can grab some quality time because diagonally and moving away from of the originators of “self-determination paper Defining Creativity and How to “A place that doesn’t look like an office he says. “Creativity requires a corporate the phone isn’t ringing. These days, not orthogonal arrangements to something theory”, found that incentives or rewards Develop a Creative Culture, says that — and indeed our office is nothing like mind-set that replaces dread of failure many people are given that luxury. We less regular often provides an answer. of any kind — whether praise or cash tasks need to be defined in “broad any other you would find in Farnborough, with the delight of exploration and work in a frenetic society — everything For instance, we use walking columns, prizes — reduced intrinsic motivation, and substantive ways rather than just where our UK base is,” he says. “Whether experimentation.” is speeded up by computers and or flag columns, to change load paths. the internally focused driver that financial ones”. This is because finance it’s the table-tennis table, the FIFA That’s all very well, but what is a communications. I’m sure we work more Thinking on paper helps, drawing produces creative ideas. There are, of is about control: “Control is anathema machine, the bright imagery, the pod manager to do if their team is highly intensely now than we ever did, but we in order to understand helps, and I course, individual differences in people’s to the creative process. It’s also external chairs, the hammocks — it’s a very innovative but messes up so often they should still hold on to the concept of am a firm believer that sleeping on a relationship with money, but the analysis motivation, whereas being creative is different workspace.” cannot function commercially? Dockery quality time. problem helps. It helps when things are showed that the more enjoyable the usually powered by intrinsic motivation.” A study in the Creativity Research says that while there has to be space There are some aspects of creativity reasonably quiet — it’s very difficult to task — which creative work tends to This doesn’t necessarily mean that top Journal found that surrounding for failure, it still has to be within and problem-solving that are peculiar think creatively if you’re on site and it’s be — the stronger the effect. Every personnel will perform on the minimum employees with interesting and unusual reasonable parameters. Workers must to a particular field. For instance, in raining hard and the plan you’ve got in standard deviation increase in reward for wage, however. There is a strand of things, people, games and activities be able to tell their chief executive basic structural engineering, there is your hands is getting wet …” interesting tasks decreased motivation honestly what is working and what isn’t by about 25%. Worse still, knowing in — and the chief executive needs to advance exactly how much extra money “Control is anathema to the creative process … care about the goals, career paths and would be received decreased intrinsic work-life balance of their employees. “I think you do need to be under some degree of motivation by 36%. Being creative is usually powered by intrinsic motivation” It’s not necessarily a new idea, but then Instead, employees get creative when perhaps creative thinking isn’t always pressure and to feel the tension of everyday life” they think their ideas matter and that Dr Mike Rugg-Gunn, occupational psychologist the answer … 51 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE TOOLS

The long-held dream of modular construction is finally becoming reality, n Melbourne they are lifting the last Australia, and Creekside Wharf in thanks to advances in computer modelling, 3D printing and robotics I modules to the top of a 44-storey Greenwich one of the tallest in the UK. STA apartment tower which has been In Singapore, meanwhile, an executive constructed in just 16 months. In London, condo project taking shape on Canberra a 23-storey residential block comprising Drive is believed to be the world’s largest 632 modules is under way in Greenwich. modular building project, with eight And in California, the world’s leading tech 10-12 storey blocks made from some giant is reinventing the corporate HQ as 3,300 modules. It is the kind of progress a campus of lightweight, movable pods. which is urgently needed, according The builders and designers behind to Kamran Moazami, head of building these schemes believe that modular is structures at WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff the future. They hold that technological — in the developing world as much as in improvements and market conditions the overcrowded cities of the West. “The are aligning in such a way that modular future is about prefabrication,” he says. construction is now finally ready to “Throughout the world, as populations deliver that sunlit world of speed, rise, there is a pressing need to build efficiency and flexibility its supporters cheaper, safer and quicker. For housing have been telling us about for decades. in particular it is an absolute must.” It is easy to be cynical. Modular means different things to different people, but if Manufactured arguments there can be said to be a modular sector, WORDS BY TONY WHITEHEAD it has made an art of being hopeful. But if modular really can supply those CKED Since the 1990s, a string of influential, benefits, why is it that for many it often government-backed reports has remains a fringe specialism, restricted to envisaged a future construction industry temporary classrooms or cheap homes where buildings are factory-produced in the desert? There are many reasons, before a rapid, safe and de-risked from the economic to the technical: assembly. But by and large, this has still not come to pass, and most buildings worldwide are still manufactured in the “As populations rise, there traditional way: on site. Recent developments around the is a pressing need to build world, however, do seem indicative of cheaper, safer and quicker — boundaries being pushed. While the Google HQ designed by Bjarke Ingels for housing it is a must and Thomas Heatherwick is currently one of the most talked-about projects in the Kamran Moazami, Alioune Mbow / WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff Parsons Mbow / WSP Alioune world, the La Trobe tower in Melbourne WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff

Artwork is the highest modular structure in UP P59 53 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE TOOLS

“With tall structures, for example, there is an issue with tolerances,” says Moazami. “Conventional construction gives you the luxury of being able to adjust as the building goes up and accumulated weight causes some movement. You can design modular systems to very tight tolerances — and the computer model might be perfect — but on site the reality is sometimes different.” There are also concerns over lack of expertise and the reluctance of potential adopters to invest in training. “You have to know how to put these things together, but not Far left Bjarke Ingels is one many people on site have experience of of a new wave of architects building with modular on any scale,” exploring the aesthetic adds Moazami. possibilities of modular forms. Designing and kitting out a factory to He described his Serpentine make modules is another huge upfront Pavilion in London (2016) and long-term investment. “You need as “free-form yet rigorous, a consistently high volume throughput modular yet sculptural” to make it work economically,” says WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff director Jane Left Ingels is also designing Richards. The company discovered this the Google HQ in California, for itself when working in the UK with a campus of lightweight, student accommodation provider Unite movable pods under a to design a system that could provide climate-controlled canopy accommodation blocks up to 14 storeys high. Modules featured a cold-rolled, light-gauge steel frame and were business model that works. For example, completely finished inside with en-suite CHALLENGE MODULAR there are two basic approaches for these facilities. “They even had beds and Six common fears about modular construction — and the secrets to overcoming them types of module. You can run one along a lampshades,” says Richards. “The idea production line, like a car, or you can have was that the first person to open the door it constructed in one place with people was the student who would live in it.” coming to the module. The latter is However, the project foundered during slower, but you can play with the design the recession as demand dwindled more easily to suit different markets.” and all-important volumes dropped. 1 2 3 4 5 6 And the market is the vital driver, as Attempts were made to sell to other the housing sector in major cities across markets, such as budget hotels, but still the globe illustrates. Ever since the there was insufficient volume to keep the widespread adoption of prefabricated facility viable. The modules were perhaps Modular buildings have a boxy, You end up transporting fresh air It costs too much (unless produced … Even then, off-site manufacturers You can’t build tall enough with It’s too difficult to bring forward solutions in postwar Europe, the speed too specific, and the business plan too shipping-container aesthetic along the motorway in huge volumes) charge high prices modular systems every aspect of the design and efficiency of modular construction uncompromising for that market at that has made it an attractive solution time: “You need the right balance,” says Solutions Solutions Solutions Solutions Solutions Solutions in high-density urban areas, where Richards. “High volume, highly finished Use a flexible module system which Use engineered panels rather than Increase demand by diversifying Pay the extra — you get speed, quality Use a hot-rolled steel system Use 3D computer visualization demand for homes is high but the modules can be brilliantly efficient. But can produce different shapes and sizes boxes your client base — for example, from and reliability in return Build adjustment into the system to techniques to help the client to settle skilled labour needed to build using

Google sometimes a kit-of-parts approach gives Use large engineered panels or Use a local manufacturer purely residential to student or hotel Contractors and developers can acquire compensate for settling on the design early traditional methods is often scarce. you more flexibility.” elements, rather than boxes Exploit movable manufacturing accommodation in-house capabilities or develop long- Combine extensive off-site fabrication Share information across a common This is precisely the scenario in many Could the advent of building Use asymmetric modules and orientate technology to create “pop up” factories Sell to volume housebuilders struggling term partnerships with manufacturers with a traditional core or frame design platform or building information countries today. Leading the pack, information models (BIM) linked to them differently close to site with labour costs and availability Exploit BIM and automated model Singapore’s construction regulator highly automated production facilities Use joints between modules as part of Don’t worry — costs of hardware and manufacture to create ever finer Communicate requirements clearly to has set a mandatory target that 65% provide the flexibility required? “All of the aesthetic strategy software to automate manufacturing tolerances the client and specialist designers at an of tower superstructures must use that certainly helps,” says Richards. “But processes are falling early stage “PPMC” (prefabricated prefinished

Jim Stephenson VisualizationPhoto you still need a manufacturing style and modular construction) — at the recently

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55 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE TOOLS

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completed Crowne Plaza hotel extension and mutate — Safdie was commissioned example, to cladding that continuously such is the corrugated or “corduroy” Stacey says. “These can be used to at Changi Airport, a PPMC system cut to replicate the design in various SERIOUS HARDWARE varies to suit the internal and external appearance of 3D-printed concrete. introduce steel reinforcement which the number of workers required onsite locations from New York to Puerto Rico. The robots are coming … environment. You can have whatever This is a result of the printing process, can then be post-tensioned.” by 40% and the time to construct a floor Although none of these subsequent shape or angle you want — including which builds elements by laying down Skanska envisages 3D robots from two to three weeks to just three or projects were ever realized, the idea of Central to the modular debate is the shapes that are impossible to make with a 12mm-diameter bead of concrete. operating on site, as well as from four days. highly adaptable modular architecture issue of how mass-produced elements conventional moulds. “Obviously a smaller bead results in a factories. “We tend to deal with heavy But it is not just speed and efficiency lives on. In the Indian city of Vijayawada, can be made to work with creative “There is absolutely the potential smoother appearance,” says Stacey. things,” says Stacey, “so printing on site that makes modular an appealing urban residents will even be allowed to design architecture. One area that might for this technology to be used in “But smaller beads inevitably slow the reduces transport costs. A limiting factor solution. Architects have long been their own high-rise apartment. The offer a solution is 3D printing. At the conjunction with volume-produced whole process and also restrict the size at the moment is that the robots we use fascinated by the flexibility offered by scheme, by Chinese architect Penda, Manufacturing Technology Centre in [moulded] elements. These too are of aggregate you can use. It’s all about are very heavy. It would be great to have modules or pods, and the idea that will see buyers select prefabricated Coventry, Skanska UK is helping to increasingly being made with the finding an optimum balance.” Various a hard-working robot trundling around a buildings can be moved or added to, modules from a catalogue, which will pioneer concrete printing — a process help of automation — and in a way 3D approaches are being taken to create building — but at the moment it would be as if adapting organically to the fast- then be inserted into the structural by which elements can be made in an printing is just part of that development. a smoother finish, including fitting liable to fall through the floor.” changing urban environment. One of the frame. The practice describes the almost limitless number of shapes and Also, the business case for all forms a trowel attachment to the concrete While 3D-printing robots will probably most famous examples is the Habitat 67 approach as using “modern construction sizes by extruding specialized concrete of automation is improving — partly nozzle, applying a skim, or smoothing the start their construction careers in housing development, originally designed techniques to bring back a level of via a robotic arm. because the cost of the software needed element post-curing by grinding. factories, Stacey expects their power- by Moshe Safdie for the 1967 World Expo individualism and flexibility for the “Architecturally, the potential of to take a design, and instruct robots to Another issue is reinforcement. to-weight ratios to improve. “It would in Montreal. An experimental stacked inhabitants of a high-rise”. Similarly, the this technology is very exciting,” make it, is falling sharply.” Again, a number of techniques are being also make sense to have them located arrangement of 354 concrete “boxes”, designers of the Google HQ are keen to says Sam Stacey, Skanska’s director There are technological hurdles researched, including adding chopped at a temporary factory near to site,” he which together comprise 146 residences, emphasize how modular architecture of innovation. “To be able to create to overcome, however, before 3D fibre reinforcement to the concrete mix. says. “That way you get the efficiency its modular approach was intended to is about customization rather than completely bespoke concrete elements printing can become a regular “Another approach is that the panel can associated with off-site prefabrication — create an architecture that could multiply uniformity. “We are trying to retain cost-effectively opens the way, for feature of modern construction. One be designed and printed with voids,” but with minimal transportation costs.”

ANATOMY OF A HOSPITAL

Laing O’Rourke and WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff have designed and built a Liverpool children’s hospital out of 15,000 pre-assembled elements

WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff has a component by a reference method in action. While most other pre-assembled components example, would find it strange that worked with Laing O’Rourke on rather than having to draw it and buildings of this type would such as glazed screens, wiring various specialists traditionally off-site fabrication techniques schedule it out. The reference tells feature a steel or in-situ frame assemblies and air handling concentrate their effort at since 2004, and has helped the UK the plant computer exactly what with non-structural cladding, plant. As a result, LOR calculates different times in the design and contractor to develop its industry- is required, and the computer Alder Hey was engineered by the building was completed construction process. “Lighting leading Design for Manufacture will build it, incorporating any WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff to 20% quicker than could have designers might need to think and Assembly (DfMA) programme. variables such as cast-in items.” take advantage of LOR’s off-site been achieved with traditional about light locations before the DfMA can involve re-engineering More often than not this will manufacturing capability from the techniques. frame components are made an original design so that on- happen at one of LOR’s own outset. The cladding comprises Both LOR and Davidson believe rather than afterwards,” he says. site techniques such as in-situ plants, like the Explore Industrial pre-glazed precast elements, there is more to come from “So we have to bring a lot of concrete pours can be replaced Park in Nottinghamshire. Here, a which also act as loadbearing modular. “We are getting better at design forward to make the best with increasingly sophisticated variety of components make their external walls. This has been it all the time. For example we are use of DfMA.” off-site construction. way rapidly through a state-of- achieved by a factory-engineered now creating precast components But here too technology is “At the start we assisted in the-art production line. The whole Right Alder triple-layer system featuring which incorporate wiring ready to coming to the rescue. At Alder defining designs for elements process, including reinforcement, Hey Children’s a structural concrete interior, be connected,” says Davidson. Hey 3D visualizations of wards that could be effectively mass pouring and finishing, is highly Hospital in insulation, and an exterior layer of He concedes, however, that were used early on, to ensure

Skanska produced,” says WSP Parsons automated. For example, robots Liverpool, UK. pigmented architectural concrete. while companies like LOR can services were correctly placed. Brinckerhoff director Malcolm add strengthening lattices before The cladding Floors and walls were added further the cause of off-site Davidson says: “It enabled us to Davidson. “But since 2004 we panels are oven-cured, flipped, comprises using lattice slab and twin- manufacturing, progress depends take a nurse, doctor or patient have been progressively pushing and new panels added to create a pre-glazed wall elements and, of course, on the whole industry, including representative into a virtual room the envelope in terms of the hollow twin-wall element. precast elements, bathroom and toilet pods were clients and subcontractors, at design stage — and then if modern construction agenda. For Alder Hey Children’s Hospital which also act all manufactured off site. In all, making adjustments to the equipment could be better placed example we have now reached the in Liverpool, designed by BDP, as loadbearing the building used some 12,000 procurement schedule. He points we could make that adjustment as

Visualization Barbour Visualization David Photo point where we can often specify is a recent example of the DfMA external walls precast units along with 3,000 out that car manufacturers, for a result of their timely input.” 57 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE TOOLS

Below AHMM’s Burntwood this feeling of having an environment School in London won the RIBA that anyone can actually hack, if they Stirling Prize in 2015. Its precast- want to,” Bjarke Ingels explained after concrete, glazed cladding panels the project’s launch. are one of the design’s outstanding If talk of hacking sounds very architectural features construction 2.0, then so too does the proposed site assembly method, with robot cranes — or crabots — to lift the prefabricated components into place. This is a reminder that the technological improvements underpinning the modular renaissance don’t just relate to the modules themselves. “Some of the biggest advancements recently have been in logistics — crane capacities, lifting and movement plant,” says Simon Underwood, chief executive of UK-based module manufacturer Elements Europe. This is helping companies such as his to broaden their market base into defence and healthcare, as well as different housing types: “It means we can now build bigger units to suit more open-plan arrangements, which are more aligned to the residential sector.”

Beyond the box

For now, however, only an estimated 11% of UK homes have significant modular input. One reason, and it has dogged modular for decades, is the concern that prefabricated buildings look boxy, samey and offer little scope for imaginative architecture. “I think this is changing though,” says Paul Monaghan, partner at London-based architect Allford Hall Monaghan Morris. “Look at the way housing designers are using modular in different colours and clever configurations.” He cites projects by developer Urban Splash such as the canal-side 43-home House project in Manchester, designed in collaboration with architect shedkm, where residents are able to specify the internal layout within a uniform shell of timber frame, cool black metal pitched roofs and black- framed bay windows. Monaghan is an expert in the field: his modular approach to both housing and education projects culminated in his practice winning the 2015 Stirling Prize, UK architecture’s most prestigious

award, for Burntwood School in London. Parrish Rob Photo 59 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE TOOLS

“There are a number of tactics we’ve 450mm deep. We also employed some developed for working with modular,” he asymmetry so that the panels can be “Our most successful projects are the ones where we have teamed says. “Our most successful projects are rotated to give variation in appearance the ones where we have teamed up with without increasing the number of up with the manufacturer at an early stage and designed for their the manufacturer at an early stage and different-shaped moulds involved.” designed for their way of working, rather Of course, it becomes much easier way of working” Paul Monaghan, AHMM than designing the building and then to design with modular if the modules trying to make it fit a particular system.” themselves can be varied more easily. At Burntwood, the use of large, glazed At the moment, to be cost-effective, rewards would be considerable. “One efficiently. “Mass customization: if you precast concrete cladding panels factory production still relies heavily way forward”, he says, “might be for can apply that, you could probably rule was one of the project’s outstanding on the economies that come from engineers to use parametric modelling to the world.” architectural features, and a superb mass production. The next step must provide us with an interactive structural And this is more than just an aspiration. illustration of the creative possibilities be to broaden the Google idea of model — and then link that with the BIM Contractors and engineers are even of factory production. So what was customization, combining more bespoke for shop drawings and ‘file to factory’ now busy trying to find the right balance Monaghan’s secret? “It helps to have modules and structures with a factory manufacturing.” Combine this design between bespoke design and volume depth to the panels,” he says. “Otherwise process that remains cost-effective. approach with automated production, production — and using the latest the building can end up looking flat Igor Kebel, director at Melbourne-based says Kebel, and it should be possible to technology to boost their chances, such and banal. At Burntwood the facade is architect XO Projects, believes the introduce variations more quickly and as 3D printing.

P54 EARLY RISER Melbourne contractor Hickory’s 44-storey tower was completed in just 16 months

You don’t have to be an engineer to see of up to 4.2m x 16.4m, with pre-fitted Tower? “One key thing is, because If it all sounds too good to be true, then that the residential tower on La Trobe bathroom pods and a pre-attached the floors are part of the off-site Argyrou does at least concede that the Street in Melbourne demonstrates two facade. “The module size is one of the manufacturing process, you decouple system will not work everywhere all the key qualities that prefabricated building first things we have to decide, and it’s pouring concrete floors from the critical time. Location of the factory, for example, has traditionally struggled to provide. determined by logistics,” says Argyrou. path,” says Argyrou. “That meant we were is key and a lot of Hickory’s work is close For one, it is 44 storeys high, and for “What size load can we transport to site able to do two floors a week at La Trobe. by in the Melbourne area. (When Hickory another it is distinctive, featuring a on local roads? What crane can we use? It Four floors a week should be possible.” took its approach to Perth, 5,000km away, keyboard-inspired facade that belies the might need to lift up to 22 tonnes.” He adds that because the modules are it trained up a local contractor to make methodology behind its construction. Its These constraints are then turned over factory-engineered, the quality is high and the modules.) “The local market, local fashionably skinny form accommodates to Hickory’s structural engineers who are reliable, and because facades can be pre- costs and site conditions also determine 206 apartments rising from a 360m2 now well practised at designing buildings fitted, there is no live edge to the building. what sort of project is suitable,” says floorplate and, remarkably, locally based the Hickory way. They know, for example, “It really is cleaner, safer and quicker.” Argyrou. “In Melbourne it begins to make contractor Hickory has taken just 16 that the modules are manufactured, and It is also quieter — a feature of modular sense at around 30 storeys.” months to build it. located, to 1mm tolerances. Even so, with construction that has, in one unexpected It is worth noting too that Hickory’s “I would guess it would take more like a building of this height, one might expect way, led to Hickory being a victim of its modules are not of the fully-finished 26 months if we were using traditional inaccuracies to build up and settlement to own success. At a previous project in variety — rather they are room-sized, construction methods,” says Hickory’s occur. So how does the system cope? Melbourne, deliveries of modules were or even apartment-sized, structural co-founder and joint managing director “We know it will settle, say, 30mm complicated by the presence of trams. elements with certain features attached. George Argyrou. “Our system costs the over 30 levels. And with our system, the Because these do not run at night, Neither do they incorporate much in the same, so by completing early our client interface has a tolerance — you can adjust Hickory was allowed a trial period of way of mechanical and electrical fitting. saves money because they get a faster the stitch joint. In fact, La Trobe ended night working, despite fears that it would “We see no speed advantage to doing that return on investment.” up just out by 6mm — less than what the disturb neighbouring residents. In the in the factory,” says Argyrou. Hickory’s system varies from project engineers’ models had predicted. Going event, the process proved so quiet that on Maybe this is why Hickory is enjoying to project, but essentially comprises higher is no problem and we are currently its next project — in a tram-free area — the success where others have struggled. It hot-rolled steel box frames incorporating looking at 60-floor projects.” company has been encouraged to work knows exactly what it wants from off-site an engineered concrete floor. At La Trobe So what kind of benefits has the at night in order to decrease the effect of fabrication and is careful not to over-

Hickory Photo Tower these boxes came in varying sizes Hickory system delivered at La Trobe site traffic during the day. complicate the process. 61 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE TOOLS

“One way forward might A CENTURY OF PROTOTYPES be for engineers to use Nick Jones presents a capsule history of modular architecture parametric modelling to provide Torten Estate, Dessau / Walter Gropius architects with an interactive 1 and Hannes Meyer / 1926-28 3 4 5 structural model” Igor Kebel, Gropius had been working on the concept of a “Hausbaufabrik” (home building factory) XO Projects since 1916, in response to the stagnation of building activity during the First World War and the consequent lack of affordable housing for workers. The Torten Estate of 314 cube- The irony is that, just as technology is like terraced houses, commissioned by creating the capability to design more the municipality of Dessau, was his first flexibly, the “boxy” aesthetic is enjoying a opportunity to put this theory into practice. resurgence in mainstream architecture. With the German economy in perpetual crisis, The influence of Habitat 67 is clear in the need to build cheaply was paramount. The projects such as Ole Scheeren’s Interlace loadbearing walls were made of prefabricated development in Singapore, which was and inexpensive hollow slag-concrete blocks; named World Building of the Year at the ceilings with Gropius’ Rapidbalken system Habitat 67, Montreal / Moshe Safdie / 1967 Nakagin Capsule Tower, Tokyo / Kisho Kurokawa / Furniture House 1, Yamanashi / Shigeru Ban / 1995 the 2015 World Architecture Festival. of reinforced concrete joists. All of the structural 1972 Just as Safdie assembled concrete pods components were prefabricated on site and Safdie’s cuboid block of 158 flats pioneered the idea of Standardized elements have long been used in modernist in different cuboid arrangements to craned into position. However, almost as soon modular high-rise housing. The complex stack of concrete The 13-storey Nakagin Capsule Tower was the world’s housing, perhaps most notably by architects such as make terraces, walkways and gardens as the houses were finished, a number of boxes was connected by high-tension rods, steel cables first permanent example of plug-in architecture. The Richard Neutra, Charles and Ray Eames and Pierre Koenig (famously claiming to have used “all the construction defects became evident, and welding. The arrangement allowed for 15 different building is composed of 140 self-contained prefabricated in California’s Case Study House programme. Shigeru Lego in Montreal” in the design process), and residents quickly set about making their housing types, with gardens and terraces filling the voids. concrete capsules, each measuring 2.3m x 3.8m x 2.1m and Ban’s Furniture Houses take the system-built model up a so too has Scheeren stacked larger own alterations. There were also six elevator pillars providing vertical access. connected to the shaft with just four high-tension bolts. The notch. Furniture House 1 was built from 33 wooden units, cantilevered volumes at varying angles to Unusually, prefabrication of the concrete modules took capsules were delivered to site already fitted out as small prefabricated in two different sizes in a furniture factory create a series of lively external spaces. Dymaxion House / Richard Buckminster place on site in a purpose-built factory. Safdie believed this living or office spaces, complete with a bathroom the size and joined together with a wooden girder. The twist Such “stacked” designs are becoming a Fuller / 1945 2 to be the most cost-efficient solution, but costs still spiralled of an airplane toilet. In 2007, the capsule owners voted to was that these units acted as structure, space-defining staple of iconic architecture, from Herzog to C$22 million, or about C$140,000 per home. The demolish the building, citing squalid, cramped conditions elements and furniture, such as bookshelves or wardrobes, & de Meuron’s surrealist Vitra Haus Fuller designed a mass-produced, lightweight Habitat concept has endured though, not least in Safdie’s as well as concerns about asbestos. Kurokawa responded all at the same time. Each unit weighed about 79.2kg and in Weil-am-Rhein, Germany (2011) to aluminium house in the late 1920s, but a prototype own work. His 2012 Sky Habitat project in Singapore uses by suggesting that the existing boxes could simply be could be easily handled by a single person. The house’s OMA’s colossal Timmerhuis mixed-use of the 100m2 “dwelling machine” wasn’t built until many of the same architectural devices to create a series of “unplugged” and replaced with updated units. As of 2016, lightness and integrated furniture made it inherently development in Rotterdam (2015). after the Second World War. Again, a post-war interconnected streets, gardens and terraces in the air. neither proposal has gone ahead. earthquake-resistant. It all points towards a bold new dawn housing shortage provided the impetus, and the for the module. Robot technology sudden spare capacity of the aircraft industry is enabling faster, more accurate was to provide the materials and assembly Star Apartments, Los Angeles / Michael Maltzan / 2014 production of more flexible designs. BIM lines. It’s striking how Fuller’s design seems 6 is allowing manufacturers, designers to address a number of modern concerns: A The modular approach adopted at this homeless shelter in and contractors to play with modular 10m-long Plexiglass living-room window drew Downtown LA made the project one of Time Magazine’s “25 configurations in a way that would have in natural light, the circular form reduced heat Inventions of the Year” for 2015. The site originally held a single- been difficult just a decade ago — and loss, the home had an easily adaptable floorplan storey commercial building but rather than tear it down, Maltzan architects are becoming more adept at and featured water recycling, wind turbines and decided to build on top of it. A concrete superstructure was poured using new modular solutions in creative natural ventilation. The idea was for it to be priced over the existing edifice, and five storeys of prefabricated modules ways and more interested in the rigid like a car, to be paid off in five years, and buyers were craned on top. The modules, which were stucco-finished geometries of the past. would receive their home flat-packed in a metal on site, provide 102 apartments, with pre-installed bathrooms, Most important of all perhaps, a global tube. In April 1946, Fortune magazine predicted appliances, cabinets and surface finishes, as well as community shortage of traditional building skills is that “the ‘dwelling machine’ was likely to produce space. It may be heralded as a new typology, and even an causing problems for developers — and a greater social consequences than the introduction “invention”, but the seemingly haphazard arrangement of modules market that is hungry for new methods of of the automobile”. But, largely due to Fuller’s and creation of outdoor space in the setbacks and voids clearly procurement is a market where modular unwillingness to compromise with manufacturers, Baan Iwan 6. Hirai Hiroyuki Gaetan/FlickrArcspace 5. 4. 3. Alamy 2. LianeM/Shutterstock 1. owes a debt to Habitat 67.

can flourish. no metal tubes were ever delivered. Photos Nick Jones is editor of The Architectural Historian 63 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE TOOLS

THE CHALLENGE CAN YOU MAKE CONSTRUCTION WEATHER-PROOF?

“Tell me how to avoid wind and rain on a project — imagine taking the effects of wind and rain away from BLANK CANVAS construction and what that would do to time. On our projects in Brisbane we have a 12.5% inclement weather One problem, three engineers, no constraints contingency, and down on the Gold Coast it’s 15%. If you could drop a forcefield around the entire project so that wind and rain didn’t matter, you would have 12-15% time gains immediately. It’s Star Trek type stuff, but it would be worth billions.” David Eden, regional director, Multiplex 65 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE TOOLS

1 2 3 Cranes, drones and giant fans Inflatables and umbrellas Bones, cells and spiders’ webs Bill Price / director / WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff Sol Lorenzo / technical director / WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff Audrey McIver / technical director / WSP Parsons Brinckerhoff

Losing time due to wind is often about do it for a high-rise building, but it would to 40-45m/s by actively managing and you consider that lightning is really just Wind and rain? That’s a joke here in I started off thinking about putting a not being able to use a crane. It seems to work for a more modest out-of-town counteracting the effects. droplets of rain rubbing against each Canada. We build through six months of “You build the first storey — massive tent over the site, the size of “The problem with steel or me there are two issues: the safety of the residential block or business park. Then Or you could over-specify the cranes other, you can see the energy involved. winter. The challenges of temperature the Eden Project. Then, I thought: you operator as the crane moves in the wind, you can do everything from a much more — for example, using cranes that are Warehouses use what’s called an “air and of snow are tremendous. We have but it’s not the actual first know what, I’m thinking too small. One concrete structures is that they and the load on the end of the crane stable platform. designed for very windy places like curtain”, which can be so powerful that to do all sorts of things, from preheating of the reasons that construction sites swinging about. When we stabilize super-tall buildings, Scotland or the North Sea. a bird can’t fly through it. If there was a metal so that we can weld it, to putting floor, it’s the roof. Then you are vulnerable to the weather is because are inorganic. But what if we So I started thinking about stopping we use tuned mass dampers, so when Of course, you would still need to piece of kit that couldn’t get wet, could special mixtures in concrete so that it start pushing that up and they are in a temporary condition. could merge that material with the crane from moving. On our Goldman they try to sway in the wind, there is a manage the load. It might be much more we blow air over it very fast so that the will set in cold weather, to putting Buildings are fine in their permanent Sachs HQ site in London, there are four passive or active device — a weight or efficient to use tethered drones to pull rain couldn’t land? That would be very temporary enclosures around our installing the rest of the condition. That made me think about something organic, something cranes. Could there be a way of linking a tank of water — that counteracts the the load into the right spot. The crane expensive, but you might only switch it on buildings and heating them so that what we could do to make buildings that them together to stabilize them in high movement. Could we invent a tuned would still take most of the weight, but occasionally — it’s not raining all the time. we can pour the concrete. building underneath” are strong in their temporary condition, that could grow itself?” winds? In other words, using the cranes mass damper for the crane? drone technology could compensate for Theoretically, it might be possible to We tend to use temporary enclosures without having to over-design them. as a kind of triangulated grid. Then you Taking a more active approach, you the swinging. A bucket of concrete might charge up the rain particles electrically on a small scale around specific pieces Recently I went to a lecture about how could install a net or platform, or a very could use large jet fans to counteract the be a bit heavy, but it might work with a and then use a giant magnet to pull them of work, but in the far north when we’re the inorganic structures of a building lightweight membrane above the jib to wind. With today’s technology, it would piece of cladding or something else with out of the way. But the infrastructure building in permafrost, they can be pretty relate to organic structures. For example, provide some protection from the rain. be possible to work out exactly where less mass. Cameras have something to do that might cost more than the large. We essentially put up tents over the structure of the human body — our A beam crane is a similar idea. We the crane should be, and then the fans called “lens stabilization”, which senses building itself. And then there’s the effect smaller job sites. skeleton — is always in a temporary state, always tend to think of cranes as tall and other devices could work together the movement of your shaky hand and on all the metal and electrical objects I wouldn’t use a tensioned membrane yet it can support the weight of our body masts with a jib that swings around. But to keep the crane in the same spot. At makes micro adjustments to counteract in the vicinity. Credit cards would cease for a temporary enclosure, but you and adjust to suit the things that we do. to build a ship or a nuclear power station, the moment you might have to stop it. Could we not scale that up? to work, the bricklayers’ trowels would could use a large inflatable air dome. The problem with steel or concrete you build a giant crane and run a beam using the crane when the wind reaches Rain is trickier. It would take a massive be sucked onto the magnet, and their The problem with inflatable domes is structures is that they are inorganic. But

across the top to lift things. You wouldn’t 20-30m/s, but you could push that up amount of energy to vaporize it — if lighters would all fly through the air … that they want to fly away as the air what if we could merge that material

b k

e i da e a w wvewawpkne pressure lifts them off the ground, so with something organic, something that e r a w a x s a y aw f ia i c w t a n t ke fb ba i p e the anchorages can be quite substantial. the weather out of the equation almost could grow itself? What if, in the future, y o a e b

n q k i e f o e k e b a But this doesn’t happen with pneumatic completely. It also optimizes the work of it could be made of cells that reproduce u o p b domes, which are like a closed balloon different trades, because you install all or some kind of hybrid between organic f w f or an air-tight bouncy castle. If you had of your mechanical and electrical and and inorganic? We could manipulate w n x an air-supported pneumatic dome, you plumbing systems on the floor below the cells or programme them in such a c a could move it from one storey to the next. the roof, and then you push it up, so way that they grow into the building, and I think they could be scaled up without your workmen are always working at a then when they reach a certain point, a too much difficulty — there are some that convenient height, instead of on lifts. that’s it, it gets switched off. The weather are huge, almost stadium size, for soccer We looked at the structural concept in wouldn’t matter because the building fields for example. terms of how it can resist lateral loads, would always be strong — in the same Recently we were involved in the its stability while it’s being lifted, what way as the human body can lose weight, preliminary concept for a Montreal-based kind of forces are required to lift it, what gain weight, start running marathons, start-up called “Upbrella”. You build the kind of beams are required for those stop running marathons, and adjust. first storey of your building — but it’s not forces. As you have a one-storey wall Think about all the innovations that the actual first floor, it’s the roof. Then you essentially hanging off the structure of are happening in the organic field. If start pushing that up and installing the the roof, it does have to be built quite we can grow bone, could we somehow rest of the building underneath. You’re strongly in order to hold itself together replicate that so that buildings 3D-print “Theoretically, it might be possible to charge up creating a moving envelope, so that the as it moves. The system does come themselves? Or think about how crystals floor that you’re working on is completely with a lot of constraints that you have to form — could a building replicate like the rain particles electrically and then use a giant protected from the elements at all times. integrate into your design and it doesn’t that? Or spiders’ webs, which are as magnet to pull them out of the way” The effect of the weather is not totally allow you complete flexibility in your strong as steel. Why can’t we build eliminated because you still have to construction. So, I wouldn’t say that it’s bridges the way that spiders spin webs? deliver materials to the site, but for the the ideal solution, but it is definitely a Why are we still working with materials construction of the structure, this takes good solution. that have been there for 200 years? 66 (THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE INDEX

IN 10 WORDS OR LESS …

“Eliminating littering and “The same number of cars as in dog mess would make city 1968 — 80% less than today.* life perfect!” (*Ten words and two numbers)” Audrey McIver 65 8 Susan Krumdieck

“Better transportation “Build more housing! and lower cost of Sky-high rents are pushing accommodation” my friends out” Kamran Moazami 51 10 Nathanael Johnson

“In Milton Keynes, more “A stronger sense THE POSSIBLE city-ness — for example, of community” cafes and galleries” Marco Buccini Stephanie Taylor 46 21 What single thing would improve city life for you? “A powered “Support for affordable suitcase with seat housing and mental to go along station healthcare for the platforms” homeless” Heinz Wolff 40 22 Doug Lacy

“Good-quality open-source “Room for everyone data, enabling more to support a healthy, informed decisions” balanced lifestyle” Adam Selvey 39 24 Vivien Mak

“Where eating and “Paris’ culture, London’s drinking is celebrated creativity, New York’s vibrancy, outside on the street” Singapore’s modernity” Jonathan Doughty 32 31 Chris Lanksbury ( THE ART AND SCIENCE OF) THE POSSIBLE

A WSP PARSONS BRINCKERHOFF PUBLICATION