Treasurer's Investments
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Randy McDaniel Oklahoma State Treasurer Treasurer’s Investments September 2020 Treasurer’s Mission Statement The mission of the Office of the State Treasurer is to serve the people of Oklahoma by providing sound banking and investment services, reuniting individuals and businesses with their unclaimed property, and promoting economic opportunities in a fiscally responsible and efficient manner while adhering to the highest professional and ethical standards. Office of the State Treasurer / Monthly Report OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER RANDY MCDANIEL November 25, 2020 To the People of Oklahoma: The Office of the State Treasurer is pleased to issue the September monthly investment performance report. I trust you will find it thorough, upholding my commitment to provide disclosure on the economic environment and portfolio results. As always, my staff and I are available to answer any questions. Market Conditions Treasury yields were lower at the end of the month, in comparison to October. The 2-year treasury was at 0.15%, the benchmark 10-year was 0.84% and the 30-year returned 1.57%. A broad rally in the equity markets continued in September with the Dow earning 11.84%, the S&P at 10.75% and the Nasdaq returning 11.80%. On a year-to-date basis, the performances were 3.86%, 12.10% and 36% for the Dow, S&P and the Nasdaq, respectively. The Wall Street Journal said “Signals from central banks that interest rates will stay low for a protracted period, and the cash that has already been pumped into financial market and into consumers’ hands, have fed investors’ appetite for riskier assets such as equities”. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at their September 16 meeting and communicated they anticipated no rate increases through 2023, “until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time”. According to the Wall Street Journal, officials had concerns that “easy gains from reopening the economy could mask deeper scars, as the most vulnerable business shut down and employees in hard-hit sectors face longer spells of joblessness”. Economic Developments The number of jobs that were added to the economy in August were 1.4 million, and there were 13.6 million people who were unemployed and looking for jobs. The number of unemployed citing temporary job loss was 45.5%. The unemployment rate dropped from 10.2% to 8.4%. According to USAFacts “Retail, plus the leisure and hospitality sector, together accounted for 55.7% of job growth since April. But the 12.7 million leisure and hospitality sector jobs reported in August are still 21.1% less than the 16.1 million jobs it had in March. Retail jobs in August were down 3.7%, from 15.6 million in March to 15 million in August”. The headline consumer price index (CPI) declined in August to 0.4% from 0.6% increase in July. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, also was reported at 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, the headline CPI gained 1.3%, in comparison to 1.0% the month before, and the core CPI increased slightly from 1.6% to 1.7%. The producer price index (PPI) for final demand gained 0.3%, after reaching 0.6% in July. According to CNBC “Excluding the volatile food, energy and trade services components, producer prices rose 0.3% in August, advancing by the same margin for three straight months. In the 12 months through August, the core PPI gained 0.3%. The core PPI edged up 0.1% on a year-over-year basis in July”. Retail sales fell below expectations in August, coming in at 0.6% in comparison to the downwardly revised 0.9% gain the month before. The sales decline was attributed to the reduction in unemployment benefits and less 2300 N. Lincoln Blvd., Room 217, Oklahoma City, OK 73105 • (405) 521-3191 • Fax: (405) 521-4994 support for small businesses. Trading Economics reported that “declines were seen in sales at department stores (-2.3%), grocery stores (-1.6%), sporting goods, hobby and music (-5.7%). Sales rose the most for food services and drinking (4.7%) clothing (2.9%), furniture (2.1%), and building material and garden equipment (2%)”. According to the Census Bureau’s monthly report, which tracks signed contracts and paid deposits, there were more than a million newly built homes sold in August. These sales represented the highest number reported since December 2006. Preliminary seasonally adjusted numbers reflected that more than 70% ofAugust sales were homes that were under construction or still in the planning stages. The publication called The Real Deal said “the surge in sales comes as housing supply hits a 40-year low, driving up prices. Higher price tags don’t appear to be scaring off buyers: The number of mortgage applications for increasingly larger loans to purchase homes have been steadily rising”. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 31.4% in the second quarter of 2020. This was in comparison to their previous estimate of 31.7%, reflecting an upward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) that was partially offset by downward revisions to exports and to nonresidential fixed investment. Portfolio Commentary: Performance, Diversification, and Strategy The Treasurer’s portfolio yielded 1.78% in September with a weighted average maturity of 706 days. The total assets under management by the treasurer was $8.7 billion, in comparison to $7.9 billion a year ago. The portfolio’s diversification strategy continues to be sound. U.S. government sponsored enterprises accounted for approximately 30% of the portfolio and mortgage-backed securities were 30%. U.S. treasuries represented 32% of assets, money market mutual funds were 5% and Certificates of Deposits were 1%. State bond issues, foreign bonds and municipals totaled 2% and comprised the balance of funds invested. In keeping with the state’s statutory investment objectives, the portfolio strategy continues to be seeking safety, liquidity, and return on investment, in that order. Laddered bond maturities and a buy-and-hold strategy were utilized. Market observation for investment opportunities were considered in order to maximize income within investment parameters and consideration of current low interest rates. Collateralization All funds under the control of this office requiring collateralization were secured at rates ranging from 100% to 110%, depending on the type of investment. Payments, Fees, and Commissions Securities were purchased or sold utilizing competitive bidding. Bank fees and money market mutual fund operating expenses are detailed in the attached pages, as is the earnings split between the treasurer and the master custodian bank on securities lending income. Total Funds Invested Funds available for investment, at market value, include the State Treasurer’s investments at $6,146,683,764 and State Agency balances in OK Invest at $2,574,839,981 for a total of $8,721,523,745. Best regards, RANDY MCDANIEL STATE TREASURER cc: The Honorable Kevin Stitt, Governor The Honorable Greg Treat, President Pro Tempore The Honorable Charles McCall, Speaker of the House The Honorable Mike Hunter, Attorney General The Honorable Cindy Byrd, State Auditor and Inspector Office of the State Treasurer Distribution of Assets Under Management September 30, 2020 $8.7 Billion State Agency, Investable Base, $2.6 Billion State of Oklahoma, Investable Base, $6.1 Billion Office of the State Treasurer Portfolio Composition September 30, 2020 Face Amount/ Asset Category Market Value Book Value% of Portfolio YTM @ Cost Weighted Average Maturity Shares Certificate of Deposit 99,517,00099,517,000 99,517,000 1.2 0.37% 72 Foreign Bonds 80,000,00079,885,738 80,000,000 0.9 2.49% 526 Money Market - Mutual Funds 388,431,313388,431,313 388,431,313 4.6 0.03% 1 Municipal Bonds 14,000,00014,336,580 14,000,000 0.2 2.45% 787 State Bond Issues 30,000,00030,000,000 30,000,000 0.4 1.93% 1,949 US Agency - MBS 2,570,992,5332,730,066,614 2,612,717,113 30.5 2.70% 1,044 US Agency Bonds 2,580,000,0002,621,414,454 2,602,640,593 30.5 1.13% 660 US Treasury Bonds / Notes 2,700,000,0002,757,872,046 2,706,366,777 31.7 1.78% 538 Total / Average 8,462,940,8468,721,523,745 8,533,672,796 100.0 1.78% 706 Page 1 Office of the State Treasurer Distribution by Asset Category - Market Value Report Group: Monthly Investment Report Begin Date: 8/31/2020, End Date: 9/30/2020 Market Value % of Portfolio Market Value % of Portfolio Asset Category 8/31/2020 8/31/2020 9/30/2020 9/30/2020 Certificate of Deposit 100,017,000 1.1 99,517,000 1.1 Foreign Bonds 79,923,075 0.9 79,885,738 0.9 Money Market - Mutual Funds 643,091,399 7.3 388,431,313 4.5 Municipal Bonds 14,347,750 0.2 14,336,580 0.2 State Bond Issues 30,000,000 0.3 30,000,000 0.3 US Agency - MBS 2,738,474,373 31.2 2,730,066,614 31.3 US Agency Bonds 2,495,758,087 28.4 2,621,414,454 30.1 US Treasury Bonds / Notes 2,683,694,824 30.5 2,757,872,046 31.6 Total / Average 8,785,306,508 100.0 8,721,523,745 100.0 Portfolio Holdings as of 8/31/2020 Portfolio Holdings as of 9/30/2020 Page 2 Office of the State Treasurer Distribution by Issuer - Market Value Report Group: Money Market Mutual Funds excluding CARES Begin Date: 8/31/2020, End Date: 9/30/2020 Issuer Allocation Market Value % of Portfolio Market Value % of Portfolio Issuer 8/31/2020 8/31/2020 9/30/2020 9/30/2020 AIM Invesco 197,421,851 30.7 83,228,223 21.4 Goldman Sachs 150,374,385 23.4 141,858,097 36.5 JPMorgan 295,287,263