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Treasurer's Investments Randy McDaniel Oklahoma State Treasurer Treasurer’s Investments November 2018 Treasurer’s Mission Statement The mission of the Office of the State Treasurer is to serve the people of Oklahoma by providing sound banking and investment services, reuniting individuals and businesses with their unclaimed property, and promoting economic opportunities in a fiscally responsible and efficient manner while adhering to the highest professional and ethical standards. Office of the State Treasurer / Monthly Report OKLAHOMA STATE TREASURER RANDY MCDANIEL February 4, 2019 To the People of Oklahoma: The Office of the State Treasurer is pleased to issue the November monthly investment performance report. I trust you will find it thorough and in keeping with my commitment to provide disclosure of the economic environment and portfolio results. As always, my staff and I are available to answer any questions. Market Conditions The treasury curve flattened in November, with the benchmark 10-year treasury coming in at 2.98% and the 30-year at 3.29%. Treasury bond prices increased during the month, with the two-year yield declining to 2.78% on November 30. The yield difference between the two-year and ten-year treasuries was 20 basis points, almost reaching the year-to-date low of 18 basis points. The stock market rallied at the end of November with the S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq advancing to 2,760, 25,538 and 7,330, respectively. The U.S. stock market dropped to a six-month low earlier in the month, but calendar year returns ended up being positive with the S&P up 3.2%, the Dow up by 3.3% and the Nasdaq up 6.2%. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously at the November meeting to leave the benchmark federal funds rate at 2.25%. The FOMC telegraphed they were still on course to raise rates in December and that risks to their outlook remained “roughly balanced.” The Fed is trying to prolong the second- longest U.S. expansion on record, through gradual upward interest rate increases. Economic Developments The October nonfarm payrolls beat consensus estimates coming in at 250,000, but the previous month’s estimate was downwardly revised from 134,000 to 118,000. The unemployment rate was static at 3.7% and the underemployment rate decline 0.1% to 7.4%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that job expansion occurred in health care, manufacturing, construction, transportation and warehousing. Industries that had small employment gains were in government, financial activities, information and wholesale and retail trade. The Labor Department reported that the October headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3% and the year- over-year increased 2.5%, in comparison to 2.3% in September. A 3% rise in gasoline prices was attributed for more than one-third of the increase in headline CPI. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, increased 0.2% reflecting a gain of 0.1% for the last two consecutive months. The headline producer price index (PPI) rose 0.6% and core PPI increased 0.5% from the previous month. According to Bloomberg, “U.S. producer prices rose more than forecast in October for the biggest jump in six years on broad gains in costs for goods and services.” Retail sales came in strong, growing by 0.8% for the month of October. This was in comparison to 0.1% for the previous month. The decline in gas prices was attributed to the increase in headline sales. Core sales, which exclude volatile components such as automobiles and gas, gained 0.3% for the month. On a year-over-year basis, headline sales were 4.6% higher and core sales were 4.7% higher. Headline sales numbers for September were downwardly revised by 0.1%. 2300 N. Lincoln Blvd., Room 217, Oklahoma City, OK 73105 • (405) 521-3191 • Fax: (405) 521-4994 The average price for existing homes was $255,400 which increased from a year ago by 3.8%. Reflecting an increase of 1.4%, 5.22 million existing homes were sold in October. In comparison to October 2017, total existing home sales declined from 5.5 million. The number of first-time home buyers remained steady at 31% of sales. The increase in existing home sales was attributed to improved inventory, influencing more buyers to participate in the market. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the gross domestic product was unchanged at 3.5% for the third quarter of 2018. Personal consumption declined 0.4% to 3.6% from the previous estimate. Profits increased due to earnings gains by domestic nonfinancial corporations. Portfolio Commentary: Performance, Diversification, and Strategy The Treasurer’s portfolio yielded 2.45% in November with a weighted average maturity of 973 days. The total assets under management by the treasurer was $6.18 billion, in comparison to $5.45 billion a year ago. The portfolio’s diversification strategy continues to be sound. U.S. government sponsored enterprises accounted for approximately 41% of the portfolio and mortgage-backed securities were 41%. Certificates of Deposits represented 3% of assets and money market mutual funds were 7%. U.S. treasuries, state bond issues, foreign bonds and municipals totaled 8% and comprised the balance of funds invested. In keeping with the state’s statutory investment objectives, the portfolio strategy continues to be seeking safety, liquidity, and return on investment, in that order. Laddered bond maturities and a buy-and-hold strategy were utilized. Market observation for investment opportunities were considered in order to maximize income within investment parameters and with regard to the likelihood of rising interest rates. Collateralization All funds under the control of this office requiring collateralization were secured at rates ranging from 102% to 110%, depending on the type of investment. Payments, Fees, and Commissions Securities were purchased or sold utilizing competitive bidding. Bank fees and money market mutual fund operating expenses are detailed in the attached pages, as is the earnings split between the treasurer and the master custodian bank on securities lending income. Total Funds Invested Funds available for investment, at market value, include the State Treasurer’s investments at $3,634,584,533 and State Agency balances in OK Invest at $2,551,592,513 for a total of $6,186,177,046. Best regards, RANDY MCDANIEL STATE TREASURER cc: The Honorable Kevin Stitt, Governor The Honorable Greg Treat, President Pro Tempore The Honorable Charles McCall, Speaker of the House The Honorable Mike Hunter, Attorney General The Honorable Cindy Byrd, State Auditor and Inspector OFFICE OF THE STATE TREASURER Portfolio Composition November 30, 2018 Face Asset Category Market Value Book Value% of Portfolio YTM @ Cost Weighted Average Maturity Amount/Shares Certificate of Deposit 186,175,000186,175,000 186,175,000 3.0 2.20 48 Foreign Bonds 30,000,00029,252,930 30,000,000 0.5 3.42 894 Money Market - Mutual Funds 413,781,822413,781,822 413,781,822 6.7 2.10 1 Municipal Bonds 12,870,00013,382,976 12,870,000 0.2 5.15 749 State Bond Issues 30,000,00030,000,000 30,000,000 0.5 2.50 549 US Agency - MBS 2,548,850,5032,566,226,018 2,587,145,460 41.1 2.85 1,819 US Agency Bonds 2,550,000,0002,531,485,225 2,542,049,454 41.2 2.04 385 US Treasury Bonds / Notes 425,000,000415,873,075 416,062,512 6.8 2.79 733 Total / Average 6,196,677,3256,186,177,046 6,218,084,248 100.0 2.45 973 Page 1 OFFICE OF THE STATE TREASURER Distribution by Asset Category - Market Value Report Group: Monthly Investment Report Begin Date: 10/31/2018, End Date: 11/30/2018 Market Value % of Portfolio Market Value % of Portfolio Asset Category 10/31/2018 10/31/2018 11/30/2018 11/30/2018 Certificate of Deposit 212,175,000 3.51 186,175,000.00 3.01 Foreign Bonds 29,917,320 0.50 29,252,930.00 0.47 Money Market - Mutual Funds 510,949,655 8.46 413,781,822.00 6.69 Municipal Bonds 18,399,541 0.30 13,382,976.00 0.22 State Bond Issues 30,000,000 0.50 30,000,000.00 0.48 US Agency - MBS 2,420,894,511 40.06 2,566,226,018.00 41.49 US Agency Bonds 2,454,800,400 40.62 2,531,485,225.00 40.92 US Treasury Bonds / Notes 365,598,550 6.05 415,873,075.00 6.72 Total / Average 6,042,734,977 100.00 6,186,177,046.00 100.00 Portfolio Holdings as of 10/31/2018 Portfolio Holdings as of 11/30/2018 Page 2 OFFICE OF THE STATE TREASURER Distribution by Issuer - Market Value Report Group: Money Market / Mutual Funds Begin Date: 10/31/2018, End Date: 11/30/2018 Issuer Allocation Market Value % of Portfolio Market Value % of Portfolio Issuer 10/31/2018 10/31/2018 11/30/2018 11/30/2018 AIM Invesco 184,560,344.72 36.12 144,371,848.78 34.89 Goldman Sachs 177,285,324.57 34.70 125,391,962.32 30.30 JPMorgan 149,053,543.34 29.17 119,078,445.06 28.78 Northern Trust 50,442.34 0.01 24,939,565.61 6.03 Total / Average 510,949,654.97 100.00 413,781,821.77 100.00 Portfolio Holdings as of 10/31/2018 Portfolio Holdings as of 11/30/2018 Page 3 OFFICE OF THE STATE TREASURER Earnings by Asset Category November 30, 2018 Interest Earned Net of Realized Total Asset Category YTM @ Cost Amortization/ Gain/Loss Earnings Accretion Certificate of Deposit 2.20% 372,690 - 372,690 Foreign Bonds 3.42% 409,978 - 409,978 Money Market - Mutual Funds 2.10% 778,220 - 778,220 Municipal Bonds 5.15% 125,427 - 125,427 State Bond Issues 2.50% 250,000 - 250,000 US Agency - MBS 2.84% 5,299,187 - 5,299,187 US Agency Bonds 2.04% 3,947,078 - 3,947,078 US Treasury Bonds / Notes 2.79% 551,508 - 551,508 Link Deposit (not currently active) Total or Average 2.45% 11,734,088 - 11,734,088 Total Earnings as of 11/30/2018 Certificate of Deposit Foreign Bonds Money Market ‐
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