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Monthly Report April 2017

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Monthly Report April 2017 Monthly Report April 2017 Vol 69 No 4 Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report April 2017 2 Deutsche Bundesbank Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14 60431 Frankfurt am Main Germany Annual and weekly publishing schedules for Postal address selected statistics of the Deutsche Bundes- Postfach 10 06 02 bank can be downloaded from our website. 60006 Frankfurt am Main The statistical data are also published on the Germany website. Tel +49 69 9566 0 The Monthly Report is published by the Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt am Main, Fax +49 69 9566 3077 by virtue of section 18 of the Bundesbank Act. It is available to interested parties free of http://www.bundesbank.de charge. Reproduction permitted only if source is stated. This is a translation of the original German- language version, which is the sole authorita- ISSN 0418-8292 (print edition) tive text. ISSN 1862-1325 (online edition) The German original of this Monthly Report went to press at 11 am on 21 April 2017. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report April 2017 3 Contents Commentaries .......................................................................................................... 5 Economic conditions ........................................................................................................... 5 Public finances .................................................................................................................... 8 Securities markets ............................................................................................................... 10 Balance of payments ........................................................................................................... 11 The role of banks, non- banks and the central bank in the money creation process ....................................................................................... 13 Wavelet analysis of the longer-term relationship between money growth and lending in Germany ......................................................................................................................... 19 The impact of policy rate changes on money supply and lending....................................... 25 Annex: Remarks on a 100% reserve requirement for sight deposits .................................... 30 Demographic change, immigration and the potential output of the German economy ...................................................................................... 35 A reference value for business investment in Germany ....................................................... 44 Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report April 2017 4 Statistical Section.................................................................................................... 1• Key economic data for the euro area .................................................................................. 5• Overall monetary survey in the euro area ............................................................................ 8• Consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem ............................................................ 16• Banks .................................................................................................................................. 20• Minimum reserves ............................................................................................................... 42• Interest rates ....................................................................................................................... 43• Insurance corporations and pension funds .......................................................................... 48• Capital market .................................................................................................................... 50• Financial accounts ............................................................................................................... 54• Public finances in Germany ................................................................................................. 58• Economic conditions in Germany ........................................................................................ 65• External sector .................................................................................................................... 74• Overview of publications by the Deutsche Bundesbank .......................... 83• Abbreviations and symbols e Estimated p Provisional pe Partly estimated r Revised … Data available at a later date . Data unknown, not to be published or not meaningful 0 Less than 0.5 but more than nil – Nil Discrepancies in the totals are due to rounding. Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report April 2017 5 Commentaries Economic conditions almost able to completely offset the severe production cutbacks recorded in the final quar- Underlying trends ter of 2016. Overall, the output of capital and consumer goods rose steeply (+1¾%), and German econ- The German economy is likely to have picked manufacturers of intermediate goods also re- omy likely to up significant momentum in the first quarter of corded considerable growth in output (+1%). have picked up significant 2017. Both the timely accessible sentiment indi- momentum in Upward trend first quarter cators and the “hard” economic data published Following the exceptionally sharp decline at the so far paint a favourable picture. Industrial out- beginning of 2017, new industrial orders picked in new orders still intact put posted a steep rise and sentiment in the up again in February. They rose steeply on the manufacturing sector is extremely optimistic. month in seasonally adjusted terms (+3½%). The Ifo business climate index for the sector Although the average of January and February reached its highest level since the summer of was consequently still down considerably on 2011. This, together with the steep rise in new the previous quarter (-2%), this should be seen orders overall in recent months, indicates that in the light of the exceptionally strong inflow of the buoyant industrial activity is likely to con- orders in the final quarter of 2016. The level of tinue for the time being. In line with this, real the other three quarters of last year was clearly exports rose significantly of late and industrial exceeded and the upward trend still appears to enterprises estimate the future outlook for ex- be intact. Furthermore, part of the decline was ports as very favourable. The sharp increase in due to the weak development in major orders. the production index for the construction sec- Excluding this, the contraction in the inflow of tor is related to the annual adjustment of the new orders was distinctly lower (-1%). In re- reporting enterprises and, viewed in isolation, gional terms, new orders from Germany and is likely to be of limited informative value in non- euro- area countries declined equally as economic terms. However, the jump indicates strongly by 1¾%. The contraction in the euro that growth in construction activity in recent area was even more pronounced (-3%). While months was probably understated. Finally, pri- capital goods manufacturers had to cope with vate consumption is likely to have remained a severe cuts (-4¼%), orders of consumer goods mainstay of growth on the back of positive remained at the prior-quarter level. There was labour market developments and the upbeat even a significant increase in orders of inter- sentiment among consumers. mediate goods (+1¼%). Industrial sales expanded steeply in February Further rise in 2017 month on month (+1½%) after adjust- industrial sales Industry and exports ment for seasonal variations. Taking the aver- Upswing German industrial output continued to increase age of January and February, there was a simi- in industry and posted a significant month-on- month rise larly strong increase compared with the final continues of 1% in February 2017 after adjustment for quarter of 2016 (+1¾%). Manufacturers of seasonal variations. On an average of January intermediate goods reported the greatest in- and February, it significantly exceeded the level creases in sales (+2½%), with producers of cap- reached in the final quarter of 2016 (+1½%). ital and consumer goods also posting strong The upturn was quite broadly based and sales growth (+1½% in each case). In regional covered all major branches of industry. German terms, German industrial enterprises benefited motor vehicle manufacturers, in particular, in particular from buoyant demand in Germany gained significant ground (+3¾%) and were and the euro area. By contrast, sales growth in Deutsche Bundesbank Monthly Report April 2017 6 non- euro- area countries was significantly more Economic conditions in Germany * modest. In line with this, nominal exports of goods likewise continued their upward move- Seasonally adjusted ment and recorded a marked month- on- month Orders received (volume); 2010 = 100 rise of ¾% in February. On an average of Janu- Industry ary and February, the increase on the previous of which Main con- quarter was even more significant (+2½%). In Period Total Domestic Foreign struction real terms, the increase was also still strong, at 2016 Q2 110.3 105.8 113.8 128.5 Q3 110.3 103.5 115.8 123.1 1½%. Nominal imports of goods decreased Q4 115.0 109.5 119.5 132.8 Dec 118.8 114.4 122.3 132.9 steeply in February (-1½%) on the month. How- 2017 Jan 110.7 103.4 116.7 132.5 ever, in view of the buoyant import activity in Feb 114.5 111.8 116.7 … January, the value of imports on an average of Output; 2010 = 100 January and February was still significantly Industry of which above the level posted
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