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Co N Carv Ompreh Needs Ver Cou Hensive Assess Unty, M E Hous

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Co N Carv Ompreh Needs Ver Cou Hensive Assess Unty, M E Hous Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment For Carver County, Minnesota Prepared for: Carver County Community Development Agency Chaska, Minnesota June 2014 Acknowledgement: This study was paid for by the Carver County Community 1221 Nicollet Avenue South Development Agency and a grant from the Family Housing Suite 218 Fund Minneapolis, MN 55403 (612) 338‐0012 June 5, 2014 Mr. John Sullivan Executive Director Carver County Community Development Agency 705 Walnut Street Chaska, Minnesota 55318 Dear Mr. Sullivan: Attached is the study Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment for Carver County, Minnesota conducted by Maxfield Research Inc. The study projects housing demand for each community in Carver County from 2014 to 2020, from 2020 to 2030 and from 20030 to 2040. It also pro‐ vides recommendations on the amount and types of housing that could be built to satisfy de‐ mand from current and future residents. The Comprehensive Housing Needs Assessment finds that householld growth and changes in demographic characteristics and housing preferences will create deemand for approximately 36,965 housing units in Carver County from 2014 to 2040. Included in this total is demand for are an estimated 28,820 ownership units and 8,140 rental and senior units. This includes de‐ mand for nearly 3,335 rental units from low‐ and moderate‐incomee households. Assistance by the Carver County CDA, non‐profits and other government agencies and private developers may be necessary to ensure that the housing needs of these lower and moderate income households are met. Detailed information regarding hoousing demand by community and rec‐ ommended housing types can be found in the Conclusions and Recommendations section at the end of the report. We have enjoyed performing this study for you and are available should you have any ques‐ tions or need additional information. Sincerely, MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Mary Bujold President Attachment 612‐338‐0012 (fax) 612‐904‐7979 1221 Nicollet Avenue South, Suite 218, Minneapolis, MN 55403 www.maxfieldresearch.com TABLE OF CONTENTS Page KEY FINDINGS ...................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 Key Findings..................................................................................................................... 1 PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY ................................................................................... 5 Study Impetus ................................................................................................................. 5 Scope of Work ................................................................................................................. 5 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS ............................................................................................. 7 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 7 Population and Household Growth Trends and Projections .......................................... 8 Population Age Distribution Trends ................................................................................ 19 Household Income .......................................................................................................... 20 Household Tenure ........................................................................................................... 23 Household Type .............................................................................................................. 28 Employment Growth Trends ........................................................................................... 30 Commuting Patterns ....................................................................................................... 36 Major Employers ............................................................................................................. 40 Age of Housing Stock....................................................................................................... 41 Residential Construction Trends 2006 through 2013 ..................................................... 43 MARKET CONDITIONS GENERAL‐OCCUPANCY RENTAL HOUSING ................................. 47 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 47 Twin Cities Rental Market Overview ............................................................................... 48 Carver County Rental Housing ........................................................................................ 49 Housing Choice Voucher Program .................................................................................. 56 Cost‐Burdened Renters ................................................................................................... 57 Pending Rental Developments ........................................................................................ 60 MARKET CONDITIONS SENIOR HOUSING ...................................................................... 63 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 63 Senior Housing Defined ................................................................................................... 64 Twin Cities Senior Housing Market Trends ..................................................................... 65 Market Rate Senior Developments in Carver County ..................................................... 66 Shallow Subsidy and Deep Subsidy Senior Housing ........................................................ 70 Pending Senior Housing Developments .......................................................................... 71 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page MARKET CONDITIONS FOR‐SALE HOUSING ................................................................... 73 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 73 Single‐Family and Townhome/Condominium Resales ................................................... 74 New For‐Sale Housing Development .............................................................................. 83 SPECIAL NEEDS HOUSING ............................................................................................. 89 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 89 Homelessness in Carver County ...................................................................................... 90 Homeless Counts ............................................................................................................. 91 Stock of Affordable Housing ........................................................................................... 94 Existing Resources ........................................................................................................... 96 Housing Priorities ............................................................................................................ 100 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.................................................................... 102 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 102 Demographic Profile and Housing Demand .................................................................... 103 Rental Housing Demand .................................................................................................. 104 For‐Sale Housing Demand ............................................................................................... 112 Carver County Housing Recommendations .................................................................... 119 Carver – Summary of Demographic and Housing Findings ............................................ 123 Carver Recommendations ............................................................................................... 124 Chanhassen – Summary of Demographic and Housing Findings .................................... 126 Chanhassen Recommendations ...................................................................................... 127 Chaska – Summary of Demographic and Housing Findings ............................................ 128 Chaska Recommendations .............................................................................................. 129 Cologne – Summary of Demographic and Housing Findings .......................................... 130 Cologne Recommendations ............................................................................................ 131 Hamburg – Summary of Demographic and Housing Findings ........................................ 132 Hamburg Recommendations .......................................................................................... 133 Mayer – Summary of Demographic and Housing Findings ............................................. 134 Mayer Recommendations ............................................................................................... 135 New Germany – Summary of Demographic and Housing Findings ................................ 136 New Germany Recommendations .................................................................................. 137 Norwood Young America – Summary of
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