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Ctrip.Com International (CTRP) Earnings Review: 4Q Above Expectation: Back to Profitable Growth With

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Ctrip.Com International (CTRP) Earnings Review: 4Q Above Expectation: Back to Profitable Growth With 6 March 2019 | 3:00AM HKT Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Earnings Review: 4Q above expectation: Back to profitable growth with Buy margin upside; maintain Buy CTRP 12m Price Target: $48.00 Price: $34.99 Upside: 37.2% Ronald Keung, CFA +852-2978-0856 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Ctrip reported a solid set of 4Q results, with revenue growth of Piyush Mubayi +852-2978-1677 | [email protected] +22% coming 6% above our estimates, on stronger-than-expected Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. recovery in its transportation revenue growth following the annual Bill Liu, CFA +852-2978-0820 | [email protected] lapsing of air ticketing un-bundling. 4Q18 non-GAAP operating Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. margin was 3.5% (vs. GSe of 1.7%, but below 4Q17 of 14.2%) Elsie Cheng +852-2978-1666 | [email protected] while management guided 1Q19 non-GAAP operating margin of Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 12-14%. We highlight our four key takeaways from the results: Key Data __________________________________ Market cap: $19.9bn n We see favorable competitive landscape in the online travel Enterprise value: $24.2bn 3m ADTV: $126.7mn industry this year, where Ctrip’s guided 1Q19 non-GAAP China Asia Internet operating margin at mid-point of 13% (from 3.5% in 4Q18) now M&A Rank: 3 implies a less aggressive sales & marketing effort heading into GS Forecast ________________________________ 12/18 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E 2019 vs. 4Q18; Revenue (Rmb mn) New 30,965.0 37,343.8 45,727.2 54,059.9 n Revenue (Rmb mn) Old 30,549.7 36,540.6 45,118.4 -- Building on its international business moat, as an early EBITDA (Rmb mn) 5,232.2 6,685.7 10,147.1 12,117.9 mover in Chinese outbound travel (which is driving advertising EPS (Rmb) New 9.22 8.94 14.03 18.24 EPS (Rmb) Old 8.22 7.38 13.96 -- revenues, from tourism boards) and its globally renowned P/E (X) 29.1 26.2 16.7 12.8 P/B (X) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 Skyscanner platform. Trip.com, in investment phase, is the third Dividend yield (%) NM NM NM NM focus. International accounted for 30-35% of Ctrip’s revenues in CROCI (%) 14.6 13.6 10.1 15.6 4Q; 12/18 3/19E 6/19E 9/19E EPS (Rmb) 0.90 1.75 2.04 2.84 n Room for margin expansion mid-term, as transportation GS Factor Profile ____________________________ revenue recovery drives a re-acceleration in revenue growth, Growth with international growth (which is higher margin) outpacing Financial Returns domestic. We forecast 20% group non-GAAP EBIT margin for Multiple 2020E; Integrated n Lower-tier cities to be a key focus with another quarter of robust room night growth (c. 50%) in lower tier cities and Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th continuing offline franchise store expansion. CTRP relative to Asia ex. Japan Coverage CTRP relative to Asia Internet We introduce our forecasts for 2021E, while we lift our 2019E/20E Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. revenue forecasts by 2%/1% on improving take rates. We raise our See disclosures for details. non-GAAP operating margin for 2019E to 15.3% from 13.1% on Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. Goldman Sachs Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Ctrip.com International (CTRP) Balance Sheet (Rmb mn) __________________________________ Buy Rating since Nov 4, 2015 12/18 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Cash & cash equivalents 21,530.0 32,490.2 42,207.1 54,871.2 Accounts receivable 5,668.0 6,827.6 8,357.8 9,880.8 Inventory -- -- -- -- Ratios & Valuation _______________________________________ Other current assets 52,196.0 55,019.6 59,107.8 63,197.7 12/18 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Total current assets 79,394.0 94,337.4 109,672.6 127,949.8 P/E (X) 29.1 26.2 16.7 12.8 Net PP&E 5,872.0 6,793.9 7,944.3 9,297.6 P/B (X) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 Net intangibles 13,817.0 13,423.6 13,046.4 12,825.0 FCF yield (%) 3.4 8.3 7.3 9.4 Total investments 26,874.0 26,884.5 27,209.6 27,615.7 EV/EBITDA (X) 33.1 24.2 15.0 11.5 Other long-term assets 59,873.0 59,873.0 59,873.0 59,873.0 CROCI (%) 14.6 13.6 10.1 15.6 Total assets 185,830.0 201,312.4 217,745.9 237,561.1 ROE (%) 6.4 6.1 9.2 10.9 Accounts payable 11,714.0 10,853.4 12,739.1 14,350.8 Net debt/equity (%) 42.8 28.7 16.8 4.1 Short-term debt 35,403.0 35,403.0 35,403.0 35,403.0 Interest cover (X) 2.9 3.5 8.3 11.0 Other current liabilities 21,667.0 32,577.7 38,278.4 44,857.9 Days inventory outst, sales -- -- -- -- Total current liabilities 68,784.0 78,834.1 86,420.5 94,611.6 Receivable days 60.3 61.1 60.6 61.6 Long-term debt 24,146.0 24,146.0 24,146.0 24,146.0 Days payable outstanding 553.3 519.8 463.0 471.9 Other long-term liabilities 4,167.0 4,167.0 4,167.0 4,167.0 DuPont ROE (%) 6.2 5.8 8.6 10.2 Total long-term liabilities 28,313.0 28,313.0 28,313.0 28,313.0 Turnover (X) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Total liabilities 97,097.0 107,147.1 114,733.5 122,924.6 Leverage (X) 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Preferred shares -------- Total common equity 86,715.0 92,163.3 101,026.3 112,666.4 Growth & Margins (%) ____________________________________ Minority interest 2,018.0 2,002.0 1,986.0 1,970.0 12/18 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Total liabilities & equity 185,830.0 201,312.4 217,745.9 237,561.1 Total revenue growth 15.6 20.6 22.4 18.2 Gross cash invested (ex cash) 97,055.3 99,093.7 70,033.4 70,030.3 EBITDA growth (7.3) 27.8 51.8 19.4 Net debt, adjusted 38,019.0 27,058.8 17,341.9 4,677.8 EPS growth 33.7 (3.0) 56.9 30.0 Average capital employed 120,259.3 123,988.0 120,789.2 119,834.3 DPS growth NM NM NM NM BVPS (Rmb) 156.60146.87 159.37 175.93 EBIT margin 13.9 15.3 19.9 22.4 EBITDA margin 16.9 17.9 22.2 22.4 Cash Flow (Rmb mn) ______________________________________ Net income margin 17.7 14.6 19.4 21.5 12/18 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Net income 5,480.0 5,448.3 8,863.1 11,640.1 Price Performance _______________________________________ D&A add-back 920.2 970.2 1,061.5 1,036.9 CTRP ($) NASDAQ Composite Minority interest add-back (16.0) (16.0) (16.0) (16.0) Net (inc)/dec working capital (647.8) 6,066.9 1,968.0 2,578.1 70 8,500 Other operating cash flow 32.0 (10.5) (325.1) (406.1) 60 8,000 Cash flow from operations 5,768.4 12,458.911,551.5 14,833.1 50 7,500 Capital expenditures (777.6) (1,498.7) (1,834.6) (2,168.9) 40 7,000 Acquisitions -- -- -- -- Divestitures -- -- -- -- 30 6,500 Others (8,992.1) -- -- -- 20 6,000 Cash flow from investing (9,769.7) (1,498.7) (1,834.6) (2,168.9) Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Dividends paid (common & pref) -- -- -- -- 3m 6m 12m Inc/(dec) in debt 19,086.7 -- -- -- Absolute 18.1% (9.0)% (23.3)% Other financing cash flows (11,798.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rel. to the NASDAQ Composite 11.3% (3.1)% (26.7)% Cash flow from financing 7,288.3 0.00.00.0 Total cash flow 3,287.010,960.29,716.912,664.2 Source: FactSet. Price as of 4 Mar 2019 close. Free cash flow 4,990.8 10,960.2 9,716.9 12,664.2 Income Statement (Rmb mn) _______________________________ Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. 12/18 12/19E 12/20E 12/21E Total revenue 30,965.0 37,343.8 45,727.2 54,059.9 Cost of goods sold (6,324.0) (7,922.9) (9,299.6) (10,476.1) SG&A (12,577.0) (14,972.6) (17,334.7) (20,175.6) R&D (7,752.0) (8,732.8) (10,007.3) (11,290.3) Other operating inc./(exp.) -- -- -- -- EBITDA 5,232.2 6,685.7 10,147.112,117.9 Depreciation & amortization (920.2) (970.2) (1,061.5) 0.0 EBIT 4,312.0 5,715.6 9,085.7 12,117.9 Net interest inc./(exp.) 391.0 429.5 1,283.9 1,645.2 Income/(loss) from associates (32.0) 10.5 325.1 406.1 Pre-tax profit6,257.0 6,455.5 10,694.6 14,169.3 Provision for taxes (793.0) (1,023.2) (1,847.6) (2,545.2) Minority interest 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 Preferred dividends -- -- -- -- Net inc.
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