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Climate Vulnerability Assessment for the Islands of Rota and Tinian, 2015

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Climate Vulnerability Assessment for the Islands of Rota and Tinian, 2015 CNMI Bureau of Environmental and Coastal Quality Division of Coastal Resources Management 2015 1 About this Document This document presents the Climate Vulnerability Assessment for the Islands of Rota and Tinian, CNMI. The Assessment was conducted primarily in response to both observed and projected impacts from a changing climate, as well as an increasing focus in the CNMI on addressing locally significant effects from climate variability and extreme events. The following pages highlight the Assessment design, process, findings, and recommendations for future action. The Assessment was conducted from May 2014 to March 2015, and represents a concerted effort to weave local narratives about historic climate extremes with best available climate projections. The intention is to provide a baseline of information that will spur further technical investigations concerning specific vulnerabilities, while being relatable to a broad swath of the community. It is our hope that the Assessment serves to establish a foundation for initial climate adaptation planning on Rota and Tinian. The Vulnerability Assessment for Rota and Tinian was conducted by the CNMI Division of Coastal Resources Management, in partnership with the collaborating agencies and organizations of the CNMI Climate Change Working Group, and the residents of Rota and Tinian. Ongoing support for the Vulnerability Assessment and financial assistance was provided by the Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972, as amended, administered by the Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Information for the assessment was derived from a wide range of federal and CNMI government agencies, non-governmental organizations, academic institutions, and community members. Suggested Citation: CNMI Bureau of Environmental and Coastal Quality – Division of Coastal Resources Management. (2015). Climate Vulnerability Assessment for the Islands of Rota and Tinian, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Prepared for the CNMI Division of Coastal Resources Management - CNMI Office of the Governor. Contact: The VA and associated spatial data were originally authored and compiled by the CNMI Division of Coastal Resources Management’s (DCRM) Climate and Coastal Hazards Specialist. For more information contact DCRM staff through the Office’s staff listing: http://crm.gov.mp/sec.asp?secID=16 . Access and Limitations This is an open-access document, and is available online through the CNMI Climate Working Group website at www.ClimateCNMI.net. The document may be distributed freely. Hard copies of the report are available at the CNMI Division of Coastal Resources Management Office on Saipan, and spatial data related to vulnerable features on Rota and Tinian can be viewed, queried, and downloaded online at the Division of Coastal Resources Management’s Open Data Portal: http://data.dcrm.opendata.arcgis.com/. The Vulnerability Assessment for Rota and Tinian is intended for broad planning and policy purposes, and serves as a scoping document to inform future climate adaptation planning, as well as future research directions in the CNMI. This document may also be used for educational endeavors, should any educational institution or pedagogue be adventurous enough to use it for such purposes. The Assessment is not intended for site-specific engineering or parcel-scale design purposes, nor should it be used in relation to litigation. i Acknowledgements The Vulnerability Assessment for Rota and Tinian would not have been possible without the time, resources, and contributions of many individuals and organizations. The staff of the CNMI Division of Coastal Resources Management (DCRM) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) CNMI Field Office were gracious with their time and generous with their knowledge. Robbie Greene, Rebecca Skeele, Dana Okano, and Megan Jungwi played pivotal roles in facilitating community workshops and providing planning support. Lyza Johnston, Steven Johnson, Ryan Okano, and Steve McKagan filled significant knowledge gaps with their expertise in CNMI coral health and marine ecosystems. Participating agencies and members of the CNMI Climate Change Working Group also merit recognition for their support and aid in the coordination of community workshops on Rota and Tinian, and bringing some excellent narrative to the table. In particular, Bill Pendergrass (DCRM – Rota) and Lawrence Duponcheel (Northern Marianas College – CREES & Tinian Cattlemen’s Association) are owed a great deal of gratitude for their assistance. In addition to workshop coordination, the participants of the Rota and Tinian workshops cannot be thanked enough for their in-depth knowledge and fascinating stories related to historic climate events and extremes. One of the goals of any project of this nature should be to capture local knowledge, allowing for community input and subsequent ownership. The residents of Rota and Tinian provided the means of accomplishing this goal, and instilled the nuances and flare that will ideally keep this document alive. Funding for the VA was provided by NOAA, and NOAA’s Office for Coastal Management offered valuable input and guidance on the methods employed within this study, while making tools available to better understand and visualize historic climate phenomena. NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center is also acknowledged as one of the primary data providers in assessing and summarizing both historic climate extremes and current conditions. This project also leveraged useful input and studies from the University of Guam’s Water and Environmental Research Institute of the Western Pacific (WERI), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), and the United States Department of Agriculture. Additional acknowledgement of data sources for historic conditions and future scenarios is detailed in Appendix B. ii Table of Contents About this Document ..................................................................................................................................... i Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................................................... ii Executive Guide ............................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................... 2 Vulnerability Assessment Process and Design ......................................................................................... 4 Rota and Tinian Climate Background ....................................................................................................... 6 Possible Changes to CNMI Climate & Future Scenarios ....................................................................... 11 Temperature Scenarios ........................................................................................................................ 13 Precipitation Scenarios ........................................................................................................................ 14 Winds and Waves ............................................................................................................................... 15 Sea Level Rise and Change ................................................................................................................. 16 Storm Genesis, Tracking, and Intensity .............................................................................................. 18 Ocean Chemistry (Temperature & Ocean Acidification) ................................................................... 19 Organization of the Analogs ................................................................................................................... 21 Rota Climate Vulnerability ......................................................................................................................... 23 Analogs and Vulnerabilities .................................................................................................................... 23 Summary of Rota Vulnerability .............................................................................................................. 39 Tinian Climate Vulnerability ...................................................................................................................... 42 Analogs and Vulnerabilities .................................................................................................................... 42 Summary of Tinian Vulnerability ........................................................................................................... 56 Discussion: Steps Forward for Rota, Tinian, and CNMI ............................................................................ 58 References ................................................................................................................................................... 71 Appendix ..................................................................................................................................................... 76 A. Survey for Climate Workshop Participants ............................................................................... 76 B. Resources and Data Sources for Past Events and Future Projections ..................................... 77 C. Climate Event and Analog Database
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