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Download REPORT: Fuel Oil Subsidy Reforms and Oil Market Deregulation Sadiq Ahmed Zaidi Sattar Khurshid Alam Policy Research Institute (PRI) of Bangladesh November 30, 2016 This document is an output from a project commissioned through the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN). CDKN is a programme funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID) and the Netherlands Directorate- General for International Cooperation (DGIS) for the benefit of developing countries. The views expressed and information contained in it are not necessarily those of or endorsed by DFID, DGIS or the entities managing the delivery of the Climate and Development Knowledge Network, which can accept no responsibility or liability for such views, completeness or accuracy of the information or for any reliance placed on them. ii Acknowledgments This research paper summarizes the findings of two other research papers commissioned through the CDKN. These were: “Fiscal And Macro Economic Implications of Subsidized Oil Pricing: An Opportunity For Oil Subsidies Reform In Bangladesh” and “Deregulation of the Bangladesh Oil Market”. The research was conducted by a PRI team led by Sadiq Ahmed and included Zaidi Sattar, Khurshid Alam, Saeba Ruslana and Azmina Rede. The combined paper was written by Sadiq Ahmed, Zaidi Sattar and Khurshid Alam. The initial drafts of the two background papers and this combined paper were reviewed by staff of CDKN, DFID and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). We are grateful to all of them for their contributions in enhancing the quality of the research. In particular, special thanks are due to Areej Riaz (CDKN), Laura Merrill (IISD) and Munjurul Hannan Khan (CDKN) for their perceptive comments and many helpful suggestions. The findings of the research were widely disseminated through two workshops and through a series of policy discussions with government officials. We are grateful to all workshop participants and to the government officials who generously offered their feedback on various aspects of the research. Funding for the research was provided by DFID. We are particularly grateful to Stuart Davis (DFID) for taking the first step in building the groundwork for the research funding. The authors take full responsibility for the contents of the report. iii Contents List of Tables ................................................................................................................................... v List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... vi List of Boxes .................................................................................................................................. vi Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ vii Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... x Fuel Oil Subsidy Reforms and Oil Market Deregulation in Bangladesh ................................ 1 A. Background ....................................................................................................................... 1 B. Bangladesh Oil Market..................................................................................................... 2 Supply of Oil ....................................................................................................................... 2 Demand for Oil ................................................................................................................... 5 C. Institutions Responsible for Policy, Regulation, Supply and Management of the Oil Market in Bangladesh....................................................................................................... 7 Legal Framework ................................................................................................................ 7 Institutional Structure.......................................................................................................... 8 The Oil Supply Chain ......................................................................................................... 9 Oil Pricing Policy .............................................................................................................. 14 D. Impacts of Oil Marketing, Pricing and Subsidies ........................................................ 16 Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC) Financial Performance and Subsidies .......... 17 Oil Subsidy and Fiscal Management ................................................................................ 18 Environmental Impact of Oil Subsidies ............................................................................ 21 Efficiency and Effectiveness of the Bangladesh Oil Market ............................................ 23 E. Political Economy of Oil Pricing, Subsidies and Oil Markets .................................... 24 Oil Pricing and Subsidies .................................................................................................. 24 Political Economy of Oil Market Deregulation ................................................................ 28 F. Review of International Experience with Oil Pricing, Subsidy and Market Reforms ........................................................................................................................................... 32 Oil Pricing and Subsidy Reforms ..................................................................................... 32 Fuel Pricing Reforms in India ........................................................................................... 33 Pricing Reforms in Indonesia ............................................................................................ 34 Malaysia Price Reforms .................................................................................................... 35 China Pricing Reforms ...................................................................................................... 35 iv Oil Pricing Reforms in Philippines ................................................................................... 36 International Experience with Oil Market Deregulation in Developing Countries .......... 37 Reforms in some Latin American Countries (LAC) .............................................. 37 Oil Market Reforms in East and South Asia ......................................................... 38 Lessons learnt From Successful Deregulation Reforms Implementation ......................... 42 Lessons learnt from India: .................................................................................... 43 Lessons learnt from the Philippines ...................................................................... 43 G. A Strategy for Oil Pricing and Subsidy Reforms And Oil Market Deregulation in Bangladesh ....................................................................................................................... 44 Strategic Considerations for Pricing and Subsidy Reforms and Oil Market Deregulation .......................................................................................................................... 44 Additional Strategic Consideration in Deregulating the oil Market ................................. 51 Possible Path to Oil Market Reforms................................................................................ 54 Suggested Specific Recommendations for Oil Market Deregulation ............................... 56 References .................................................................................................................................... 58 List of Tables Table 1: Import of Crude Oil .............................................................................................. 2 Table 2: Import of Refined Petroleum Products ................................................................. 3 Table 3: Total Petroleum Product Export (Metric Tons) ................................................... 3 Table 4: Eastern Refinery Oil Processing (metric tons) ..................................................... 5 Table 5: Annual Petroleum Product Sale (metric tons) ...................................................... 6 Table 6: Sector-wise Use of different petroleum products in FY2014-15 (Metric Tons) .. 6 Table 7: Number of Division Wise Retail Petroleum Product Sale Networks, July 2015 13 Table 8: Recent Trends in Domestic Oil Pricing (taka/liter) ............................................ 15 Table 9: Oil Subsidies in Bangladesh ............................................................................... 17 Table 10: Annual and Cumulative Losses of Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation .......... 18 Table 11: Distribution of Oil Subsidy Benefits by Consumption Quintile (%) ................ 25 Table 12: Consumption of Petroleum Products (Million litres) ....................................... 25 Table 13: Consumption of Petroleum Products (Litres per Person) ................................. 26 Table 14: Population-Weighted Share of Household Consumption of Different Fuels by Income Groups (Per Cent) ................................................................................ 26 Table 15: Oil Prices in Philippines Pre and Post Deregulation (peso/liter) ...................... 37 v List of Figures Figure 1: Trend in Oil Imports (million US$) .................................................................... 4 Figure 2: Sector-Wise Use of Petroleum Products
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