VOL. 2 NO. 2 - DECEMBER 2015 Editors: Michael T. Kezirian, Ph.D. Joseph Pelton, Ph.D. Tommaso Sgobba Journal of Space Safety Engineering – Vol. 2 No. 2 - December 2015 JOURNAL of SPACE SAFETY ENGINEERING Volume 2 No. 2 – December 2015 EDITORS Michael T. Kezirian, Ph.D. Tommaso Sgobba Joseph Pelton, Ph.D. The Boeing Company European Space Agency (ret.) George Washington University (ret.) University of Southern California Managing Editor Assistant Editor-in-Chief Editor-in-Chief EDITORIAL BOARD George W. S. Abbey Joe H. Engle Isabelle Rongier National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ret.) Maj Gen. USAF (ret.) Airbus Safran Launchers Sayavur Bakhtiyarov, Ph.D. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Kai-Uwe Schrogl, Ph.D. University of New Mexico Herve Gilibert European Space Agency Kenneth Cameron Airbus Space & Defense Zhumabek Zhantayev Science Applications International Corporation Jeffrey A. Hoffman, Ph.D. National Center of Space Researches and Luigi De Luca, Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Technologies (NCSRT)- Kazakhstan Politecnico di Milano Ernst Messerschmid, Ph.D. University of Stuttgart (ret.) FIELD EDITORS William Ailor, Ph.D. Gary Johnson Erwin Mooij, Ph.D. The Aerospace Corporation Science Application International Corporation Delft University of Technology Christophe Bonnal Barbara Kanki John D. Olivas, PhD, PE Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ret.) University of Texas El Paso Jonathan B. Clark, M.D., M.P.H Bruno Lazare Nobuo Takeuchi Baylor College of Medicine Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Victor Chang Carine Leveau Brian Weeden Canadian Space Agency Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales Secure World Foundation Paul J. Coleman, Jr., Ph.D. Tobias Lips Paul D. Wilde, Ph.D., P.E. University of California at Los Angeles (Emeritus) Hypersonic Technology Goettingen Federal Aviation Administration Natalie Costedoat Michael Lutomski Uwe Wirt Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales Space Exploration Technologies German Aerospace Center (DLR) AIMS and SCOPE The Journal of Space Safety Engineering (JSSE) provides an authoritative source of information in the field of space safety design, research and develop- ment. It serves applied scientists, engineers, policy makers and safety advocates with a platform to develop, promote and coordinate the science, technol- ogy and practice of space safety. JSSE seeks to establish channels of communication between industry, academy and government in the field of space safety and sustainability. MAIN JSSE TOPICS • Safety by design • Human factors and performance • Space Situational Awareness • Safety on long duration missions • Safety critical software design • Space traffic control • Launch and re-entry safety • Safety risk assessment • Space traffic and air traffic interfaces • Space hazards (debris, NEO objects) • Safety risk management • Space materials safety • Space weather and radiation • Organizational culture and safety • Safe & Rescue • Environmental impacts • Regulations and standards for safety • Safety lessons learned • Nuclear safety for space systems • Space-based safety critical systems Publication information: The Journal of Space Safety Engineering (ISSN Pending) is a quarterly publication of the International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS). You can read about IAASS mission, goals, organization, membership and activities at: http://iaass.space-safety. org/. 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Credits: Kristhian Mason, IAASS graphic designer, for cover image, graphic work, layout and paginations. Cover pictures: Orbital-3 Mission, NASA Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia, America - 27 Oct 2014 - Joel Kowsky/NASA/REX; ss-141029-cygnus-rocket-explosion-mn-04 - SPACE-ORBITAL/Handout International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety Journal of Space Safety Engineering – Vol. 2 No. 2 - December 2015 A 3 POINT ACTION AGENDA TO ADDRESS COSMIC HAZARDS AND PLANETARY DEFENSE Joseph N. Pelton, Former Dean International Space University and Executive Board, IAASS ABSTRACT past mass extinction events that have over time eliminat- ed over 99% of all species that have ever existed on planet The IAASS and the JSSE gives its prime focus to astro- Earth. The biggest single extinction event occurred some naut safety and safe space transport, but one of its im- 67 million years ago. This so-called K-T extinction event portant areas of concern is that of cosmic hazards and eliminated over 70% of all species on the planet — both planetary. This is a significant area because strategies for animals and vegetation — and this was caused by a 6 planetary defense could involve the safety of millions if kilometer asteroid smashing into the coast of Mexico and not billions of people. This article addresses the latest in- the Atlantic Ocean. Imaging from the International Space formation as to the nature of significant areas of cosmic Station reveals from space the remnants of the huge cra- risks, gaps in our knowledge, and an agenda for research ter that is the aftermath of this tremendous collision that to further planetary in future years. created a death cloud over the planet that screened out the U.K. Royal Astronomer, Sir Martin Rees has noted: life-giving light of the Sun and killed off the dinosaurs. “Throughout its history, the Earth has been impacted by asteroids and comets and buffeted by solar flares. But the consequences of these natural phenomena are more cata- strophic today, because the infrastructure on which our civilization depends is more elaborate and more vulner- able… …we have instruments, both on the ground and in space, that can give us forewarning of threatening flares and impacts. We are learning how to make our systems more robust and resilient. Moreover, we will not remain helpless in the face of these threats because we are empow- ered by advancing technology and engineering.” (Rees) But despite this quite hopeful statement by the U.K. Royal Astronomer, the truth is that there are many severe plan- etary risks ahead. Current space agency agendas, space instrumentation, changes to the earth’s magnetosphere, and research programs are, in fact, not fully responsive Figure 1: Photo from the ISS of the crater along the to the needs of a truly effective planetary defense. (Pelton coast of Mexico from the K-T Mass Extinction Event and Allahdadi) (Figure courtesy of NASA) This article sets forth some of the greatest lacks in cur- rent space programs and notes new or revised efforts that It is only during the last 50 years of space-based imag- could better prepare our small six sextillion metric ton ing and research that the full extent of cosmic hazards planet from cosmic dangers. Currently there are sev- has been revealed to humans. The magnitude of coronal eral cosmic concerns. These include asteroid and comet mass ejections, solar flares, and the frequency and size of strikes from Near Earth Objects, solar flares and coronal asteroids hits on Earth are just now beginning to be better mass ejections, and the build-up of orbital space debris understood. The data from the sensors on the G.P.S. Nav- that could endanger the safe launch of critical space in- star satellites designed to detect nuclear explosions has frastructure over the longer term future. This article fo- revealed that asteroid hits are four times more frequent cuses on potentially hazardous comets and asteroids and that thought just a few years ago. severe solar storms. And the dangers to modern society are not only from Near Earth Objects that can crash into Earth at enormous speeds. In addition to killer space rocks there are also 1. INTRODUCTION massive coronal mass ejections that blast the Earth with ion storms as well as solar flares that can elevate the risk The urgency and importance of cosmic hazards has only of cancer and genetic mutation. Two things are making recently come into clear focus with the development of the threat of solar storms today worse than ever before. historical knowledge that has come from researching the First there are many more satellites, communications and 60 International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety Journal of Space Safety Engineering – Vol. 2 No. 2 - December 2015 IT networks and electrical grids to be disabled by solar unless NASA could accelerate plans to construct and events.