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Home , Coronal mass ejection, Solar flare

VOL. 2 NO. 2 - DECEMBER 2015

Editors: Michael T. Kezirian, Ph.D. Joseph Pelton, Ph.D. Tommaso Sgobba Journal of Space Safety Engineering – Vol. 2 No. 2 - December 2015 JOURNAL of SPACE SAFETY ENGINEERING Volume 2 No. 2 – December 2015

EDITORS Michael T. Kezirian, Ph.D. Tommaso Sgobba Joseph Pelton, Ph.D. The Boeing Company (ret.) George Washington University (ret.) University of Southern California Managing Editor Assistant Editor-in-Chief Editor-in-Chief EDITORIAL BOARD George W. S. Abbey Joe H. Engle Isabelle Rongier National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ret.) Maj Gen. USAF (ret.) Airbus Safran Launchers Sayavur Bakhtiyarov, Ph.D. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Kai-Uwe Schrogl, Ph.D. University of New Mexico Herve Gilibert European Space Agency Kenneth Cameron Airbus Space & Defense Zhumabek Zhantayev Science Applications International Corporation Jeffrey A. Hoffman, Ph.D. National Center of Space Researches and Luigi De Luca, Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Technologies (NCSRT)- Kazakhstan Politecnico di Milano Ernst Messerschmid, Ph.D. University of Stuttgart (ret.) FIELD EDITORS William Ailor, Ph.D. Gary Johnson Erwin Mooij, Ph.D. The Aerospace Corporation Science Application International Corporation Delft University of Technology Christophe Bonnal Barbara Kanki John D. Olivas, PhD, PE Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ret.) University of Texas El Paso Jonathan B. Clark, M.D., M.P.H Bruno Lazare Nobuo Takeuchi Baylor College of Medicine Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Victor Chang Carine Leveau Brian Weeden Canadian Space Agency Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales Secure World Foundation Paul J. Coleman, Jr., Ph.D. Tobias Lips Paul D. Wilde, Ph.D., P.E. University of California at Los Angeles (Emeritus) Hypersonic Technology Goettingen Federal Aviation Administration Natalie Costedoat Michael Lutomski Uwe Wirt Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales Technologies German Aerospace Center (DLR) AIMS and SCOPE The Journal of Space Safety Engineering (JSSE) provides an authoritative source of information in the field of space safety design, research and develop- ment. It serves applied scientists, engineers, policy makers and safety advocates with a platform to develop, promote and coordinate the science, technol- ogy and practice of space safety. JSSE seeks to establish channels of communication between industry, academy and government in the field of space safety and sustainability. MAIN JSSE TOPICS • Safety by design • Human factors and performance • Space Situational Awareness • Safety on long duration missions • Safety critical software design • Space traffic control • Launch and re-entry safety • Safety risk assessment • Space traffic and air traffic interfaces • Space hazards (debris, NEO objects) • Safety risk management • Space materials safety • Space and • Organizational culture and safety • Safe & Rescue • Environmental impacts • Regulations and standards for safety • Safety lessons learned • Nuclear safety for space systems • Space-based safety critical systems Publication information: The Journal of Space Safety Engineering (ISSN Pending) is a quarterly publication of the International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety (IAASS). You can read about IAASS mission, goals, organization, membership and activities at: http://iaass.space-safety. org/. The JSSE is published using an open access publication model, meaning that all interested readers are able to freely access the journal online without the need for a subscription, and authors are not charged. Authors inquiries: For inquiries relating to the submission of articles please contact the Editor-in-Chief at: [email protected]. For all information about the journal, please visit the journal web page http://iaass.space-safety.org/publications/journal/. Authors instructions on preparation and submittal at: http://iaass.space-safety.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/24/2013/07/JSSE-authors_instructions.pdf. Advertising information: if you are interested in advertising or other commercial opportunities please e-mail [email protected] and your inquiry will be passed to the correct person who will respond to you within 48 hours. Copyright and photocopying: Authors retain the copyright of their work. The IAASS maintains the copyright of the Journal as a whole. Single photocopies or electronic scans of single articles may be made for personal use as allowed by national copyright laws. Authors or IAASS permission and the payment of a fee is required for all other photocopying, including multiple or systematic copying, copying for advertising purposes, resale, and all forms of document delivery. For information on how to seek permission please contact the Editor-in-Chief at [email protected]. Notice: No responsibility is assumed by the Publisher IAASS and by Editors and Editorial Board for any injury and/or damage to persons or property from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the journal. Although all advertising material is expected to conform to ethical professional conduct of IAASS, inclusion in this publication does not represent an endorsement of the quality or value of such product or service. Credits: Kristhian Mason, IAASS graphic designer, for cover , graphic work, layout and paginations. Cover pictures: Orbital-3 Mission, NASA Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia, America - 27 Oct 2014 - Joel Kowsky/NASA/REX; ss-141029-cygnus-rocket--mn-04 - SPACE-ORBITAL/Handout

International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety Journal of Space Safety Engineering – Vol. 2 No. 2 - December 2015

A 3 POINT ACTION AGENDA TO ADDRESS COSMIC HAZARDS AND PLANETARY DEFENSE

Joseph N. Pelton, Former Dean International Space University and Executive Board, IAASS

ABSTRACT past mass events that have over time eliminat- ed over 99% of all species that have ever existed on planet The IAASS and the JSSE gives its prime focus to astro- . The biggest single occurred some naut safety and safe space transport, but one of its im- 67 million years ago. This so-called K-T extinction event portant areas of concern is that of cosmic hazards and eliminated over 70% of all species on the planet — both planetary. This is a significant area because strategies for animals and vegetation — and this was caused by a 6 planetary defense could involve the safety of millions if kilometer asteroid smashing into the coast of Mexico and not billions of people. This article addresses the latest in- the Atlantic Ocean. Imaging from the International Space formation as to the nature of significant areas of cosmic Station reveals from space the remnants of the huge cra- risks, gaps in our knowledge, and an agenda for research ter that is the aftermath of this tremendous collision that to further planetary in future years. created a death cloud over the planet that screened out the U.K. Royal Astronomer, Sir Martin Rees has noted: life-giving light of the and killed off the dinosaurs. “Throughout its history, the Earth has been impacted by asteroids and and buffeted by solar flares. But the consequences of these natural phenomena are more cata- strophic today, because the infrastructure on which our civilization depends is more elaborate and more vulner- able… …we have instruments, both on the ground and in space, that can give us forewarning of threatening flares and impacts. We are learning how to make our systems more robust and resilient. Moreover, we will not remain helpless in the face of these threats because we are empow- ered by advancing technology and engineering.” (Rees) But despite this quite hopeful statement by the U.K. Royal Astronomer, the truth is that there are many severe plan- etary risks ahead. Current space agency agendas, space instrumentation, changes to the earth’s , and research programs are, in fact, not fully responsive Figure 1: Photo from the ISS of the crater along the to the needs of a truly effective planetary defense. (Pelton coast of Mexico from the K-T Mass Extinction Event and Allahdadi) (Figure courtesy of NASA) This article sets forth some of the greatest lacks in cur- rent space programs and notes new or revised efforts that It is only during the last 50 years of space-based imag- could better prepare our small six sextillion metric ton ing and research that the full extent of cosmic hazards planet from cosmic dangers. Currently there are sev- has been revealed to humans. The magnitude of coronal eral cosmic concerns. These include asteroid and mass ejections, solar flares, and the frequency and size of strikes from Near Earth Objects, solar flares and coronal asteroids hits on Earth are just now beginning to be better mass ejections, and the build-up of orbital space debris understood. The data from the sensors on the G.P.S. Nav- that could endanger the safe launch of critical space in- designed to detect nuclear has frastructure over the longer term future. This article fo- revealed that asteroid hits are four times more frequent cuses on potentially hazardous comets and asteroids and that thought just a few years ago. severe solar . And the dangers to modern society are not only from Near Earth Objects that can crash into Earth at enormous speeds. In addition to killer space rocks there are also 1. INTRODUCTION massive coronal mass ejections that blast the Earth with storms as well as solar flares that can elevate the risk The urgency and importance of cosmic hazards has only of cancer and genetic mutation. Two things are making recently come into clear focus with the development of the threat of solar storms today worse than ever before. historical knowledge that has come from researching the First there are many more satellites, communications and

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International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety Journal of Space Safety Engineering – Vol. 2 No. 2 - December 2015

IT networks and electrical grids to be disabled by solar unless NASA could accelerate plans to construct and events. Second the protective shield provided by the geo- launch the NeoCAM project that has been designed by magnetosphere appears to be weakening. (Wolcover) NASA as a new Infrared telescope that is designed to com- The magnetic North Pole has slipped down to Siberia plete the assigned task of potentially hazardous asteroids. and headed further South. Some computer modeling esti- This project has only be picked for “technological defi- mates developed at the Max Planck Institute suggest that nition” and is geared to locating asteroids that are larger the protective system provided by the Earth’s magnetic than 140 meters—as directed by Congress. (NeoCAM) field in coming decades might end up being only15% as There are those that would suggest that both the assign- effective as it was just two decades ago. Figure 2 below ment from the U.S. Congress and the NASA search ca- depicts a modeling of the protective Van Allen Belts that pabilities are well off the mark of what is needed for an could occur as the magnetic South and magnetic North effective planetary defense effort. This guidance in the Poles move closer together in coming decades. so-called George Brown Act of 2005 was not based on The bottom line is that there are many things that can be careful studies that demonstrate that an asteroid under done to initiate a planetary defense program that are cur- 140 meters would likely cause only minimal harm. The rently not being done that should be undertaken sooner truth is quite the opposite. Asteroids of 35 meters are rather than later. “city killers”. To get an idea of what size of asteroid represents a ma- jor threat one only has to look at the evidence from the Tunguska asteroid event of June 30,1904. This space rock traveling at an estimated 54,000 kilometers/hour (or about 33,500 mph) exploded some 8 kilometers (or just over 5 miles) above the Siberian forest with the explo- sive force more than 1000 times the force the Hiroshima Atomic Bomb. This air-based asteroid explosion flat- tened and incinerated a forest of 2000 sq. kilometers con- taining 80 million trees in an almost perfect radial design. This asteroid which could have wiped out San Francisco and Silicon Valley) was not 140 meters in diameter, not 100 meters, not 75 but rather only about and estimated 40 Figure 2: Modeling of Van Allen Belts During a meters in diameter. According to Dr. Donald Yeomans, Reversal of Earth’s Magnetic Poles (Graphic Provided head of NASA’s Near Earth Objects office this rather Courtesy of the Max Planck Institute, Berlin, Germany) “insignificant” space rock was able to do an incredible amount of damage. (The Tanguska) The destructive impact of an asteroid that was indeed as 2. ISSUES WITH DETECTING AND large as 140 meters in diameter and traveling at perhaps TRACKING NEAR EARTH OBJECTS 50,000 mph (or 80,000 kilometer/hour) — a more typi- cal speed for an asteroid traveling relative to Earth orbit There have been concerted efforts to detect potentially — would collide with a force that was some 65 times hazardous asteroids using both ground and space based greater (or the equivalent of 65,000 Hiroshima bombs). systems. The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer was In short, there is a really important problem here and that repurposed to become the NEOWISE to search for Near is that the guidance given to NASA by the U.S. Congress Earth Objects. (WISE) This was in response to Section now over a decade ago as to what to look NASA was 321 of the NASA Authorization Act of 2005 (Public Law instructed to look for in terms of size and urgency was, No. 109-155), also known as the George E. Brown, Jr. quite simply, WRONG! Near-Earth Object Survey Act. The specific objectives In fact, asteroids some 35 meters in diameters should be of the George E. Brown, Jr. NEO Survey Program were considered major threats. In terms of mass an object that “to detect, track, catalogue, and characterize the physi- with a 35 meter diamter is 43 times smaller than those cal characteristics of NEOs equal to or larger than 140 being searched for in the NASA search protocol. And that meters in diameter with a perihelion distance of less than is the least of the bad news. As one looks for smaller and 1.3 AU (Astronomical Units) from the Sun” This assign- smaller asteroids the numbers go up exponentially. There ment ton NASA was to achieve 90 percent completion of are likely to be many hundreds of times more potentially the survey within 15 years after enactment of the NASA hazardous asteroids that are 35 meters or more in size than Authorization Act of 2005 as signed into law by President there are asteroids that are 140 meters in size. The B612 George W. Bush on December 30, 2005. Achievement of Foundation, that was founded by Apollo 9 Astronaut this assignment by 2020 seems unlikely to be achieved Rusty Schwieckart and now headed by Astronaut Ed Lu,

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International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety Journal of Space Safety Engineering – Vol. 2 No. 2 - December 2015

has now campaigned for years for new space programs 1859 occur telegraph offices caught on and the North- that can detect potentially harmful asteroids down to ern Lights were seen in Cuba and Hawaii. In the middle 35 meters in size. Indeed their Sentinel spacecraft posi- of the 19th century, the risks to electrical systems were tioned in a solar orbit similar to that of Venus is under small because they did not exist. The Montreal event of contract with Ball Aerospace. Currently close to half the 1989 that took out electrical systems from Chicago to funds needed to finish this infrared telescope project and Montreal, and the Halloween event of 2003 that damaged launch it into orbit. This program is far from a panacea the electrical grid in Scandinavia are indicators that we and the problem of potentially harmful comets remains to are today increasingly vulnerable to major coronal mass be solved. (The Sentinel Mission) ejections that end up flowing out from the sun and hitting Beyond the detection of potentially dangerous space the Earth. rocks, there is much work still to be done. There is a need A massive enough hitting Earth to develop: (i) better techniques to detect asteroids on a could possibly damage and take off line critical collision course with earth; (ii) improved air burst, water networks, cripple electrical grids and pipelines, and pos- burst and land burst modeling; (iii) greater understanding sibly adversely affect information and communications the impact that solar radiation and gravitational affects networks and defense systems. If the GPS system were to can on the orbits of asteroids that come in close prox- be disabled, were would likely lose the synchronization imity to the sun; (iv) better characterization of the size, of the Internet. shape and composition of asteroids that might have to be diverted; and (v) the best techniques by which asteroids can be effectively diverted in their orbits by such means as directed beam systems, laser bees, or possibly even nuclear propulsion. And on top of these technical capabilities, we need to improve on and strengthen the processes that now exist with regard to the Minor Plan- et Center in Cambridge, Massachusetts and the Space Guard Foundation in Italy and UN authorized Interna- tional Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), as well as the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG). Arthur C. Clarke in his award winning novel, Rendezvous with Rama wrote of a true planetary mission to ward off asteroids from planet Earth. For once humanity could be ahead of science fiction if all of the things were to be un- dertaken on a truly integrated global effort to achieve an effective asteroid and comet defensive space guard effort. (Rendezvous) Figure 3: A Massive Solar Coronal Mass Ejection But the problem is more than just asteroid and comet (Image Courtesy of NASA) defense. And as noted earlier, there is data from the ESA Swarm satellite probes that suggest that the Earth’s magnetic poles 3. ISSUES WITH SOLAR HAZARDS are shifting and with it the protective shield represented by the Van Allen Belts are weakening. (ESA’s Swarm) The damage that might come with a massive asteroids There is now coming into focus a rather disturbing equa- strike would be terrible indeed. The probabilities of a tion. This equation that is possibly becoming true indi- disastrous “black swan” event carrying out enormous cates an imbalance. It shows on one hand an increasing damage to the global economy and great loss of life are global population, more and more electrical grids, more actually much higher in the case of a major solar . electrical devices and satellites, and more and more de- A massive of X-Rays and even more energetic pendency on modern infrastructure. On the other hand is radiation can elevate the risk of cancer and genetic mu- a global with a weakening protective ozone tation. This is particularly true where the atmosphere is layer due to pollution, a geomagnetosphere with shifting weakest in the region and where ozone holes can magnetic North and South poles, and a Van Allen Belt exist. The higher incidence of skin cancer in locations system that is less able to protect against solar storms. such as New Zealand and Southern Australia. (Ozone) These concerns, if anything are of greater concern than But the greatest danger of all comes from the ion storms even the threat from killer space rocks. There are oth- that can come from the Sun in the form of coronal mass er problems as well. These include increasing build-up ejections. (See Fig. 3) When the of of space debris, and issues that are also

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International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety Journal of Space Safety Engineering – Vol. 2 No. 2 - December 2015

longer term problems as well and they too require global cosmic radiation, the Earth’s magnetosphere, ozone cooperation and new technological development to ad- holes, the Van Allen Belts, climate change, NEO dress as well. tracking and asteroid and comet diversion tech- The bottom line is that there needs to be a global agenda niques, orbital debris remediation, and participation for cooperation and technological development to ad- on all international forums related to these topics. dress these very profound space safety issues. The time Until such actions are taken within space agencies, for action is now. Delay in addressing these issues will cosmic hazards and planetary defense will continue likely see the problem getting worse and the solutions to be treated as a low priority and non-essential func- more costly and difficult. The urgency of action is hard tion by space agencies around the world. The level to convey in a short article. If one would like to hear and of funding for such activities need to be raised from see more on why cosmic hazards are to be taken seriously less than 1% of space agency funding to at least 5%. and learn more there are three videos on You Tube that If this could be added a new funding to space agency can provide a great deal more background in a very ac- budgets it would greatly facilitate the ready accep- cessible way. These videos are: tance of this new priority mission. 1. “If there were a day without Satellite” 3:58 min. c. New Priority Research related to Cosmic Haz- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sgM7YC8Zv4 ards. After national and global assessments are 2. “Cosmic Hazards”(Short Version) 5: 50 min. made of both major cosmic hazards and potential https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJDGD73aD9s3 planetary defense strategies, there should be a global 3. “Cosmic Hazards” (Long Version) 25 min. space agency conference to establish a priority space https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwRdyag2dxA research agenda. This would include such items as: (i) New ways to cope with the reduced protective capabilities of the geomagnetosphere; (ii) Possible 4. A NEW AGENDA FOR COPING WITH dual-purpose deployable protective shielding and COSMIC HAZARDS solar power generation capabilities at L-1; (iii) Other innovative strategies to address the problem of pow- What needs to be done to address these space safety erful solar storms during a time of reduced protective issues? The following 3 point action agenda is recom- strength of the Van Allen Belts; (iv) Acceptable strat- mended. egies for diversion of potentially hazardous asteroids a. Global assessment. This assessment and inventory or comets from Earth impact; etc. of cosmic risks should be started now. Individuals countries should be considering the nature of their vulnerability to cosmic risks, but in addition, orga- 5. REFERENCES nizations such as the IAASS should cooperate to de- velop a global assessment of risks and possible strat- 1. ESA’s Mission http://www.esa.int/ egies to mitigate those risks — possibly in coopera- Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/The_Liv- tion with the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of ing_Planet_Programme/Earth_Explorers/Swarm/ . Units or organizations such as the UN ESA_s_magnetic_field_mission_Swarm, last ac- Office of Outer Space Affairs, IAASS, the McGill cessed on Dec. 30, 2015 Air and Space Law Institute, the International Space University , the International Academy of Astronau- 2. NeoCam “Neo Cam: Finding Asteroids before they tics and other organizations with a global reach and Find Us” neocam.ipac.caltech.edu, last accessed on focus could assist with such a global assessment of Dec. 30, 2015 cosmic risk levels and possible planter defense sys- tems. 3. Ozone and UV: Where are we Now? http://www.sk- b. Space Agencies Raise the Priority of Planetary incancer.org/prevention/uva-and-uvb/ozone-and-uv- Defense. All of the space agencies of space-faring where-are-we-now , last accessed on Dec. 30, 2015 nations should formally adopt Cosmic Risk Assess- ment and Planetary Defense as a Top Priority. This 4. Pelton, J. N. and Allahdadi, F.A., Handbook of Cos- should be more than a token gesture. ESA, JAXA, mic Hazards and Planetary Defense, (2015) Spring- Roscosmos, CNSA, ISRO, and NASA should create er Press, New York, New York posts just to address cosmic hazards and planetary defense. NASA, for instance, should create an As- 5. Rees Martin, Preface to Handbook of Cosmic Haz- sociate Administrator for Cosmic Risk Assessment ards and Planetary Defense, (2015) Springer Press, and Planetary Defense. This office would oversee -re New York, New York search on the sun, solar flares, coronal mass ejections,

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International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety Journal of Space Safety Engineering – Vol. 2 No. 2 - December 2015

6. Rendezvous with Rama (1973) http://www.imdb. .gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/30jun_ com/title/tt0134933/, last accessed on Dec. 30, 2015 tunguska/ ,last accessed on Dec. 30, 2015

7. “The Sentinel Mission” by the , 9. Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) http:// https://b612foundation.org/sentinel/, last accessed www.jpl.nasa.gov/wise/ , last accessed on Dec. 30, on Dec. 30, 2015 2015

8. The Tanguska Impact: One Hundred Years Later, 10. Wolcover, Natalie, What if Earth’s Poles Flip? Live NASA Science News (June 20, 2008 http://science. Science Feb. 12, 2012

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International Association for the Advancement of Space Safety APTER CH E N ST O D T . S 2 U 0 1 O

4

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– TEXAS –

CONFERENCE MAIN TOPICS The 8th IAASS International Space Safety Conference “Safety First, Safety for All”, will be held in Melbourne - Florida (USA) in the period 18-20 May • Designing safety into space vehicles 2016. The IAASS conference is the premiere international forum dedicated • Safety on long duration manned missions to the discussion of a wide variety of space safety topics. • Safety of extravehicular activities • Launch safety The conference offers a unique opportunity to meet top U.S. and interna- • Space debris remediation tional experts in space safety and related engineering fields, from industry, • Re-entry safety academia and agencies. An occasion for exchanging views and establish- ing new professional bonds, towards the common goal of forging and a • Human payloads safety global space safety culture. • Nuclear safety for space systems The online registration is open. You can access the online registration form at • Human factors and performance for safety http://iaassconference2016.space-safety.org/registration/ • Safety critical software design and IVV • Safety risk management or directly by clicking the red tab at the bottom of this page. Early Birds registration ends 14 March 2016. • Probabilistic risk assessment • Organizational culture and safety TIMETABLE OF CONFERENCE EVENTS • Regulations and standards for safety • Space-based safety critical systems 30 December 2015 Deadline for abstracts submission • SSA & Space traffic control • Operations safety 29 January 2016 Notification to authors • Space materials safety 15 February 2016 Final program • Commercial safety • Lessons learned 22 April 2016 Deadline for paper submission • Safety Management System • Hazard 18-20 May 2016 Conference • Launch and In-Orbit Collision Risk • NEO Hazard August 2016 Publication of Proceedings

CONFERENCE SECRETARIAT At the occasion of the Conference Gala Dinner on May 19, 2016 the IAASS will assign three awards: T. Sgobba [email protected] - Jerome Lederer Space Safety Pioneer Award G. Elfering - Vladimir Syromyatnikov Safety-by-Design Award [email protected] - Joseph Loftus Space Sustainability Award IAASS Kapteynstraat 1 2201BB Noordwijk These prestigious awards are a means to honor and recognize safety The Netherlands professionals and systems designers and engineers who have made Phone:+31(0)712020023 outstanding contributions towards space safety. INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SPACE SAFETY

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