Executive Insights Volume XXI, Issue 44
Where to Now? — The Future of Airport Car Parking
Airports have historically developed successful into market applications. With the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs), aerial mobility, and ground transport businesses anchored around the increasing adoption of mobility as a service (MaaS), more highly profitable parking assets. Sustained technological and business disruption is on the horizon. revenue growth has been tied to maximising These trends bring uncertainty for airport operators and passenger growth potential that translated investors as they consider their strategies and infrastructure with a high degree of predictability into higher investment decisions. parking volumes. Airport ground access over the next 20 years Ground transport is already being disrupted. In the short term, the most rapid innovation will relate to new services rather than However, the landscape is changing. Parking growth rates at new vehicle classes. many major global airports are slowing and the direct correlation with passenger growth is weaker than that observed historically. Airports around the world have been responding to current disruptors. TNCs offering shared ride services are commonplace The consumer is also changing, becoming more tech savvy, and at airports globally and the usage of multi-occupancy or pooled demanding increased choice. rides is increasing (e.g. 30% of Uber rides from Los Angeles Pick-up and drop-off (PUDO) in various forms is increasing in International Airport are now pooled rides). importance at airports. Across cities, the number of options for Future disruptors are well within the typical investment time car and ride sharing and the emergence of other “new mobility” frame of car parking infrastructure, with CAVs likely to cause options such as shared demand responsive services is growing. the greatest long-term impact. Level 41 and 52 CAVs will support Digital technology is allowing rapid innovation in business models. fleet services to airports and “self-valet” parking. Estimates of Ride share has been accepted by the market and continues to CAV (levels 4 and 5) penetration are sensitive to a number of evolve, including the recent introduction of “ride pooling” by assumptions including fleet turnover, customer acceptance, transport network companies (TNCs) and increasing competition government policy and continued advances in technology. It is via new entrants in many markets. The scale of the investment likely that a significant proportion of vehicle fleets in first world and range of players participating in the development of new countries will be level 4 or 5 by 2040. mobility are resulting in the rapid acceleration of the technology
Where to Now? — The Future of Airport Car Parking was written by Mark Streeting and Ashish Khanna, Partners, and Natasha Santha, Principal at L.E.K. Consulting. Mark is based in Sydney, Ashish is based in London and Natasha is based in Melbourne. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Executive Insights
Figure 1 Disruption time frame
EV penetration is expected to be EV penetration is expected to continue between 20% and 50% by 2030 increasing with the transition to CAVs Electric vehicles Car sharing schemes have been growing in It is uncertain whether car sharing will be a popularity as an alternative to individually signi cant delivery mode for transport with owning a car (e.g. GoGet, Zipcar) on-demand CAV eets Car sharing
Car sharing schemes where users allow their As with traditional car sharing, it is uncertain whether own cars to be shared are emerging and P2P car sharing will be a signi cant delivery mode for growing in scale (e.g. Car Next Door) transport with on-demand CAV eets P2P car sharing
Ride sharing has grown in popularity Ride hailing is forecast Ride sharing penetration is due to initiatives such as Uber, to increase to c. 25% expected to continue increasing UberPOOL and Lyft by 2030 with the transition to CAVs Current disruptors Ride sharing
On-demand transport is currently being Mixed industry perspectives on whether on-demand trialed in several cities, creating a solution shuttles will become a viable method of mass transit, On-demand for rst / last mile connectivity or if CAV eets will take their place buses / shuttles MaaS systems are currently MaaS is expected to be integrated with other being piloted and rolled out on-demand and mass transit modes and at across several cities the core of city travel by 2025 MaaS
Pilot autonomous testing is currently underway in Most experts believe that assisted autonomous driving will London and many other cities, with CAVs expected to reach c. 100% penetration by 2040 and full autonomous be available for purchase by c. 2020 vehicles will reach c. 50% penetration in the same time frame Fleet-owned CAVs It is uncertain whether privately owned CAVs will Future disruptors Privately owned ever become mainstream CAVs