Executive Insights Volume XXI, Issue 44 Where to Now? — The Future of Airport Car Parking Airports have historically developed successful into market applications. With the rise of electric vehicles (EVs), connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs), aerial mobility, and ground transport businesses anchored around the increasing adoption of mobility as a service (MaaS), more highly profitable parking assets. Sustained technological and business disruption is on the horizon. revenue growth has been tied to maximising These trends bring uncertainty for airport operators and passenger growth potential that translated investors as they consider their strategies and infrastructure with a high degree of predictability into higher investment decisions. parking volumes. Airport ground access over the next 20 years Ground transport is already being disrupted. In the short term, the most rapid innovation will relate to new services rather than However, the landscape is changing. Parking growth rates at new vehicle classes. many major global airports are slowing and the direct correlation with passenger growth is weaker than that observed historically. Airports around the world have been responding to current disruptors. TNCs offering shared ride services are commonplace The consumer is also changing, becoming more tech savvy, and at airports globally and the usage of multi-occupancy or pooled demanding increased choice. rides is increasing (e.g. 30% of Uber rides from Los Angeles Pick-up and drop-off (PUDO) in various forms is increasing in International Airport are now pooled rides). importance at airports. Across cities, the number of options for Future disruptors are well within the typical investment time car and ride sharing and the emergence of other “new mobility” frame of car parking infrastructure, with CAVs likely to cause options such as shared demand responsive services is growing. the greatest long-term impact. Level 41 and 52 CAVs will support Digital technology is allowing rapid innovation in business models. fleet services to airports and “self-valet” parking. Estimates of Ride share has been accepted by the market and continues to CAV (levels 4 and 5) penetration are sensitive to a number of evolve, including the recent introduction of “ride pooling” by assumptions including fleet turnover, customer acceptance, transport network companies (TNCs) and increasing competition government policy and continued advances in technology. It is via new entrants in many markets. The scale of the investment likely that a significant proportion of vehicle fleets in first world and range of players participating in the development of new countries will be level 4 or 5 by 2040. mobility are resulting in the rapid acceleration of the technology Where to Now? — The Future of Airport Car Parking was written by Mark Streeting and Ashish Khanna, Partners, and Natasha Santha, Principal at L.E.K. Consulting. Mark is based in Sydney, Ashish is based in London and Natasha is based in Melbourne. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Executive Insights Figure 1 Disruption time frame EV penetration is expected to be EV penetration is expected to continue between 20% and 50% by 2030 increasing with the transition to CAVs Electric vehicles Car sharing schemes have been growing in It is uncertain whether car sharing will be a popularity as an alternative to individually signicant delivery mode for transport with owning a car (e.g. GoGet, Zipcar) on-demand CAV eets Car sharing Car sharing schemes where users allow their As with traditional car sharing, it is uncertain whether own cars to be shared are emerging and P2P car sharing will be a signicant delivery mode for growing in scale (e.g. Car Next Door) transport with on-demand CAV eets P2P car sharing Ride sharing has grown in popularity Ride hailing is forecast Ride sharing penetration is due to initiatives such as Uber, to increase to c. 25% expected to continue increasing UberPOOL and Lyft by 2030 with the transition to CAVs Current disruptors Ride sharing On-demand transport is currently being Mixed industry perspectives on whether on-demand trialed in several cities, creating a solution shuttles will become a viable method of mass transit, On-demand for rst / last mile connectivity or if CAV eets will take their place buses / shuttles MaaS systems are currently MaaS is expected to be integrated with other being piloted and rolled out on-demand and mass transit modes and at across several cities the core of city travel by 2025 MaaS Pilot autonomous testing is currently underway in Most experts believe that assisted autonomous driving will London and many other cities, with CAVs expected to reach c. 100% penetration by 2040 and full autonomous be available for purchase by c. 2020 vehicles will reach c. 50% penetration in the same time frame Fleet-owned CAVs It is uncertain whether privately owned CAVs will Future disruptors Privately owned ever become mainstream CAVs Today 2030 2040 No take-up Unknown take-up Limited take-up Signicant take-up expected Expected pilot / initial take-up period Take-up uncertain Expected commercial / mainstream take-up period Key infrastructure implications the airport are most susceptible to switching to TNCs and shared Our customer research (based on passengers using a major demand responsive services. international airport) suggests that, with some notable Beyond c. 2030, the progressive impact of CAVs will further exceptions, the vast majority of airport passengers will continue reduce the growth in at-terminal parking demand. Specifically, to want to drive or be driven to and from airports for the CAVs (individual and fleet owned) are likely to drive further foreseeable future (i.e. park or be dropped off). However, fewer growth in PUDO. CAVs owned by individuals are likely to return and fewer will want to store their cars at the airport. In the “home” rather than park at the airport, while fleet-owned CAVs medium term (i.e. to 2030), penetration of PUDO (particularly will secure another trip at the airport in the same way taxis and pooled rides offered by TNCs and shared demand responsive TNCs do today. services) is expected to increase. In aggregate, we see a declining demand for traditional self-park The impact for each airport will depend on the geographic parking bays. distribution of passengers in the airport’s catchment. Passengers 1. Ground access real estate living closer to the airport and those in densely packed urban locations (with several mobility choices) will rely less on parking Space is likely to become even more constrained at the kerb than those farther away. Trips made by those who have and in the forecourt, as demand for drop-off, ride sharing and traditionally parked from a distance of up to 20 kilometres from on-demand services grows. More vehicles (albeit with slightly Page 2 L.E.K. Consulting / Executive Insights, Volume XXI, Issue 44 Executive Insights higher occupancy) will be looking to access already constrained The growing uptake of EVs in the next five to 10 years will require terminal frontages. Airports will need to consider the quantum the need for charging stations. CAVs will enable applications of of kerbside and non-kerbside space offered to enable an efficient driverless functions such as valet parking. This, combined with the PUDO process. Specifically, it will be necessary to future-proof growing popularity of robotic parking valets and stacking, could the design of the next generation of terminal access areas and be a way to improve user experience, optimise space in areas of parking infrastructure to allow for the transition from a parking high demand and avoid building new capacity. model to a drop-off model. Going forward it will be important to build flexibility into the Current holding areas are likely to be increasingly used by CAVs design of garages so they will be multi-purposed to support rather than traditional taxi and limo services, and could also be high-volume PUDO in outer years, keeping in mind not to design / redesigned to optimise for space. overengineer dedicated parking garages based on current longer- term storage requirements. 2. Car park utilisation In the short term as the popularity of car and ride sharing and The outlook for airport car parking assets on-demand services grows, parking demand growth is expected Our research indicates that the outlook for car parking assets at to slow. major airports is likely to be characterised by three distinct periods. Long term, CAVs will have the strongest disruptive impact on • In the short term (to 2025), car park utilisation and growth car parks once there is widespread level 4 automation (i.e. from will reflect the extent to which TNCs and on-demand the late 2030s). At that point, these vehicles will no longer need services drive further growth in PUDO. traditionally laid-out parking garages. At full level 5 penetration, • In the medium to long term (2025 to 2040), strong growth it is estimated that up to 90% of parking spaces will be in EVs is expected. While this will have no implications eliminated due to CAVs. This is unlikely for several decades, with for the demand for car parking per se, it may create a scenario of c. 15% penetration by c. 2040 considered likely. opportunities for airports to introduce and monetise fast- When level 4 and 5 CAVs begin to dominate the vehicle fleet (i.e. charging stations. post-2040), fleet operators will want to ensure that vehicles are • It will be post-2040 before the proliferation of CAVs drives conveniently located in close proximity to passengers requiring a significant reduction in the demand for “traditional” car them. This will present an important opportunity for airports to parking given that it is expected that only 50% of the fleet provide short-term storage (during peak times and when the will be level 4 or 5 by 2040.