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2018 Killersports.Com MLB Annual 2018 KillerSports.com MLB Annual Featuring the SDQL MLB Studies from Handicapping and Data Experts 400+ Perfect MLB Trends and Much, Much More Contributors and Acknowledgements The 2018 MLB Annual was designed by Ed Meyer at KillerSports and Kyle Akins at SportsBookBreakers. Joe Meyer at SportsDatabase.com executed the design using Open Source tools including Ubuntu-Linux and Python-ReportLabs. The Sports Data Query Lanaguge (SDQL) was used for stats and trends. The typeface is Helvetica. The data are provided by the the peer-maintainers at the SportsDatabase-Data Google Group. Call the Gamblers Book Club at 800-522-1777 for a paper copy of this MLB Annual. Table of Contents Net Profit for each Team Page 2 Walk off Winners with Momentum Page 5 The 2017 MLB Season with the SDQL Page 6 SDQL Tables at KillerSports.com Page 15 Bankroll Growth vs Fraction Bet Page 19 Starting a Series with Rest Page 21 SDQL Research for Baseball Page 23 SDQL Trends and Stats Page 24 Common Abbreviations SDQL Sports Data Query Language SU Straight Up ATS Against the Spread O/U Over Under BL Biggest Lead BPRA Bull Pen Runs Allowed HR Home Runs HPR Hits Per Run HPU Home Plate Umpire IL Innings Led IT Innings Tied MRI Multiple Run Innings PU Pitchers Used SHA Starter's Hits Allowed SHF Starter's Hitters Faced SHRA Starter's Home Runs Allowed SIP Starter's Innings Pitched WOW Walk Off Win 1 MLB Net Profit by Team 2010 - 2017 By MTi Sports Forecasting The table below gives the net profit or loss when betting on a particular MLB team for an entire regular season. The results are given for each of the last eight years with ten cent lines. Team 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Angels -$942 +$54 -$866 -$2,059 +$2,034 +$364 -$827 +$203 Astros +$758 -$3,497 -$3,339 -$2,761 -$23 -$262 -$780 +$1,247 Athletics -$78 -$1,580 +$3,761 +$1,926 -$1,622 -$3,147 -$1,410 -$376 Blue Jays +$1,310 +$138 -$1,330 -$1,013 +$118 +$813 -$833 -$1,671 Braves -$209 -$472 +$1,644 +$914 -$1,846 -$1,505 +$501 -$335 Brewers -$762 +$1,958 -$976 -$696 -$741 -$1,952 -$51 +$1,684 Cardinals -$2,226 +$154 -$501 +$1,116 +$223 +$1,867 -$706 -$906 Cubs -$1,760 -$1,476 -$2,675 -$1,592 +$2 +$1,800 +$499 -$1,315 Diamondbacks -$2,430 +$2,685 -$1,083 -$445 -$2,980 +$596 -$1,988 +$1,550 Dodgers -$1,272 +$64 +$71 +$370 +$803 -$1,072 -$599 +$1,064 Giants +$1,155 -$589 +$1,762 -$2,145 +$512 -$1 -$785 -$3,628 Indians -$620 +$143 -$2,085 +$2,455 +$286 -$1,204 +$995 +$468 Mariners -$3,825 -$2,308 +$141 -$1,683 +$296 -$1,910 +$74 -$911 Marlins -$330 -$1,403 -$2,509 -$1,322 -$23 -$1,223 -$625 -$646 Mets -$685 -$109 -$1,291 -$474 +$288 +$712 -$829 -$3,055 Nationals -$1,015 +$1,118 +$2,267 -$767 +$1,031 -$2,160 -$14 +$762 Orioles -$100 -$505 +$3,528 +$67 +$3,338 -$67 +$1,626 -$1,194 Padres +$1,836 -$1,189 +$354 +$205 -$814 -$1,728 -$157 +$144 Phillies +$848 +$1,006 -$1,671 -$2,173 -$503 -$1,060 -$199 -$1,149 Pirates -$2,218 -$341 -$270 +$2,312 +$450 +$2,168 -$1,443 -$900 Rangers -$395 +$1,084 -$527 -$431 -$1,845 +$2,610 +$2,742 -$213 Rays +$255 +$790 +$607 +$178 -$2,497 -$610 -$2,858 -$588 Red Sox -$410 -$1,538 -$3,730 +$1,808 -$2,483 -$571 +$98 +$295 Reds +$1,319 -$1,511 +$1,667 -$550 -$1,091 -$2,972 -$791 -$1,485 Rockies -$1,230 -$2,907 -$2,196 -$1,191 -$2,813 -$1,412 -$696 +$1,536 Royals -$980 -$511 -$514 +$717 +$325 +$2,024 +$126 -$252 Tigers -$219 +$1,755 -$1,219 -$1,244 -$474 -$1,031 +$1,010 -$2,812 Twins +$1,230 -$2,550 -$1,213 -$821 -$666 +$1,926 -$3,104 +$903 White Sox +$792 -$1,279 +$21 -$3,271 -$231 -$1,354 -$700 -$37 Yankees -$745 +$796 +$398 +$471 -$256 -$465 +$361 +$478 A nice graphic showing these results is given on the facing page. The average profit when betting a particular baseball team over an entire regular season is about minus four units using a ten cent line. Over a regular season, there will be a few teams that are able to overcome the “juice” and be profitable whereas others will be significantly below the break-even mark. In 2017, there were twelve MLB teams that produced a profit over the entire season. Of these, Cleveland, Boston and the Yankees were the only ones that also produced a SportsDatabase.com serves SDQL access to sports data. 2 profit in 2016 as well and none of those three also produced a profit in 2015. In 2016, there were only nine teams that were plus-money, and in 2015 there were ten. Over the last eight seasons combined, the biggest winner has been the Baltimore Orioles. They have a regular season record of 654-642 and they were an average of +108.7 on the moneyline for a net profit of 66.93 net units. The Rangers are second with a record of 698-599 at an average line of minus 116.5 to produce a net profit of 30.25 net units. The Rangers are followed by the Nationals, which have produced a net profit of 12.22 net units this decade. It is interesting to note that the Orioles have been the most profitable UNDER team this decade, going 583-659-50 OU for a net profit of 16.24 net units when going under the total. CajunSports is a Master SDQL Capper at KillerCappers.com. 3 Despite the Rockies’ excellent profitability in 2017, they remain the worst team to bet over the entire decade. Betting on the Rockies in every regular season game this decade would have resulted in a net loss of 109.09 net units and playing against them would have resulted in a net profit of 49.17 net units. The second biggest money-burner this decade has been the Mariners, which were 602-694 at an average line of +102.1. This produced a net loss of 101.26 units betting on them and a profit of 39.37 units playing against them. The Astros had a stretch of three terrible seasons in a row from 2011-2013 and they are still trying to make up for it. Houston was very profitable last season, but they only moved up to third-worst this decade as a result. Since 2010, betting on the Astros would have resulted in a net loss of 86.57 net units and playing against them would have resulted in a net profit of 21.57 net units. The Marlins are the only team in the entire table that has produced a losing season on the moneyline in all eight seasons. They are certainly unlikely to be overrated this season. The most profitable season in the entire table was that produced by the Athletics in 2012. Oakland went 94-68 and they were an average of +109.4 on the moneyline for a net profit of 37.61 net units. Fifty-seven of their 94 wins came as an underdog that season. Note that the public thought that A’s 2012 season was a fluke, because Oakland produced a terrific profit in 2013 as well. The next two most profitable seasons this decade were by the same team. The Orioles produced 35.28 net units in 2012 and 33.38 net units in 2014. The worst season this decade was the Mariners’ 2010 season. They finished 61-101 while averaging +116.6 on the moneyline for a net profit of 31.55 net units when against them. They are followed by the 2012 Red Sox, which finished 69-93 laying an average of 108.5, which produced a net profit of 30.04 net unit for those fading the Red Sox the entire season. The third best team to play against this decade was last season’s Giants, which were 65-97 at an average of +109.8 on the moneyline, which was good for 28.22 net units when betting against them. Who will be the big winners and losers this season? How agile will the bettors be when a team turns out to be significantly better or worse than forecast? Stay tuned! MTi’s MLB Plays Are Available at KillerCappers.com SportsBookBreakers sells active packages at the TrendMart under SBB. 4 Walk-Off Winners with Momentum By Charlie’s Hustle @CharliesHustle2 The Strategy: Play on home favorites off a walk-off win in which they scored first and it is not a series opener. These teams are 140-67 straight up producing a net profit of +44.14 net units and an ROI (return on investment) of 13.9%. On the run-line they were 106-100 at an average line of +144.1 for a net profit of 47.82 net units and an ROI of 23.0%. The SDQL: season>=2013 and HF and p:WOW and p:SF>=1 and SG>1 Biggest SU Slump: -12.31 net units from July 2nd 2016 through April 16, 2016 Biggest Run-line Slump: -13.40 net units from September 20th, 2013 to June 25th 2014 Strongest SU Streak: +23.67 net units from June 11th 2015 to June 25th 2016 Strongest Run-line Streak: +22.0 net units from April 20th 2017 to July 28th 2017 Recommendation: 1.5% of bankroll.
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