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Asian Insights Sparx Pharmaceutical Distribution Sector Asian Insights SparX China Pharmaceutical Distribution Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 22 Feb 2018 HSI: 31,432 A brighter future for fewer players Policy-driven consolidation will eliminate many small ANALYST players, leaving c.20% of the market up for grabs Mark KONG, CFA +852 2820 4619 [email protected] Market leaders can expect a re-rating due to: market share gain, shorter cash conversion cycle, margin Chris Gao, +852 2863 8841 [email protected] expansion because of reduced competition and disintermediation Top picks Leader with widest product range and largest logistics T arget Mk t PE network will benefit most. BUY Sinopharm (1099 HK). Price Price Recom Cap 18F Company Name Local$ Local$ Local$m x Sinopharm Group 'H'* Drastic elimination of small players to drive sector re-rating. The HKD 32.85 42.00 BUY 90899 13.0 (1099 HK) government (“govt”) has taken measures that will eliminate many smaller China Resources players in 2016-17: 1) Requiring 33% of players (mostly small players Pharmaceutical Group HKD 10.66 n.a. NR 66993 17.1 with weak financials) to upgrade their operations or close. 2) Forcing (3320 HK) Shai.Pharms.Hldg. 'H' (2607 77% of provinces to reduce layers of middlemen between drug makers HKD 19.40 n.a. NR 55137 11.8 HK) and public medical institutes to just one distributor. We estimate this will Jointown Pharm.Gp.'A' CNY 16.89 n.a. NR 31734 20.7 leave c.20% of the market up for grabs by larger players. Also, their profit (600998 CH) Nanjing Pharm.'A' (600713 margin can expand due to less price competition and more direct sales CNY 5.44 n.a. NR 5666 19.4 (reduction of sub-distributors). We expect industry gross margin to CH) China Meheco 'A' (600056 CNY 22.22 n.a. NR 23742 15.7 expand from 7% to 7.5% in 2016-20, driving the re-rating. CH) Huadong Medicine 'A' Another re-rating factor: a shorter cash conversion cycle starting CNY 57.31 n.a. NR 55712 24.5 (000963 CH) from late 2018. This is due to a shorter accounts receivable collection Realcan Pharm.'A' (002589 CNY 13.35 n.a. NR 20088 14.8 period. The govt has established the payment period to drugs distributors CH) Yunnan Baiyao Group 'A' as a new key performance indicator (“KPI”) for public hospitals. Thanks to CNY 96.01 n.a. NR 99985 26.2 (000538 CH) the recent price surge of medical services (e.g. Ningxia govt allows a 25% Cachet Pharm.'A' (002462 CNY 22.72 n.a. NR 5692 16.4 surge for the prices of 65 medical services), public hospitals’ financial CH) Guangxi Liuzhou Pharm. 'A' strength should improve, better allowing them to pay drugs distributors CNY 43.57 n.a. NR 8063 15.7 on time. (603368 CH) Source: Thomson Reuters, *DBS Vickers Sinopharm will benefit most in the industry change. The consolidation will benefit industry players with a wide product range and Note: Our proprietary research is based on interviews with 12 drugs distributors with a combined market share of 40%, govt officials (from logistics network, most notably Sinopharm. It can win new customers to Ministry of Commerce, China Food & Drug Administration, National grow its sales at 12% CAGR (2ppt above the expected industry growth) Health & Family Planning Commission, Fujian Provincial Medical Security Management Committee Office), and 4 drugstore companies and widen its net margin from 1.78% to 1.97% on better economies of scale in 2017F-20F. Trading at a 13x 1-year forward PE, its valuation is at a trough since its IPO in 2009 which is attractive for investors. ed-STV / sa- CW, DL, CS Asian Insights SparX China Pharmaceutical Distribution Sector XXXXXXX The DBS Asian Insights SparX report is a deep-dive look into thematic angles impacting the longer-term investment thesis for a sector, country or the region. We view this as an ongoing conversation rather than a one-off treatise on the topic, and invite feedback from our readers and, in particular, welcome follow-on questions worthy of closer examination. Table of Contents Investment summary 3 Re-rating of China pharmaceutical distributors will occur in 2018 4 Why isn’t the re-rating happening now? 8 Who will benefit most from the industry consolidation ? 10 Comparison of the pharmaceutical distribution industry in China and the US 18 Appendix 1: Implementation of the ‘two-invoice system’ in various provinces 21 Appendix 2: Regulatory changes in the last 10 years 23 Appendix 3: Sales channels of drugs and medical devices in China 28 Sinopharm (1099 HK) 30 Note: Prices used as of 21 Feb 2018 Page 2 Asian Insights SparX China Pharmaceutical Distribution Sector Investment summary revenue driver. As a result, they might ask for more AR days, raising the distributors’ debt to finance the AR Re-rating of China pharmaceutical distributors will occur in and interest expenses. 2018. The re-rating will be driven by: We believe the above concerns have been priced in given 1) c.20% of the market should be freed up for leading that leading players are trading at multi-year lows of 1-yr players thanks to the elimination of small players driven forward PE. In our view, both concerns are short-term by govt measures including: worries. First, as most of the leading players procure drugs directly from manufacturers, they control the supply and will a) “Two-invoice system” to eliminate sub-distributors eventually take over the sub-distributing business. The gross between leading distributors and public medical margin of direct sales is 1 to 6ppt higher than sales through institutes. Sales through sub-distributors made up sub-distributors. Second, as discussed above, we expect the 41% of total industry revenue in 2016. AR days to decline starting from late 2018 (thanks to central govt’s policy and price hike of medical services); so will the b) During China Food & Drug Administration (CFDA) related debt and interest costs. inspection on drug distributors in 2016, 5619 or 44% of players were suspected of illegal activities or Leading players with wide product range, large coverage of sub-par operating standards. CFDA required them to medical institutes, and lower cost of capital will benefit from rectify their operations. Most are small players with the consolidation. As the largest player, Sinopharm is the weak financials. They might fail to rectify and have to strongest in these aspects which enables it to grow sales at close in 2017 & 18. 12% CAGR (2ppt higher than expected industry growth) and widen net margin from 1.78% to 1.97% due to better 2) We expect industry gross margin to increase from 7% economies of scale in 2017F-20F. Trading at 13x 1-yr to 7.5% in 2016-20 due to less price competition and forward PE (the trough since IPO in 2009), the valuation is more direct sales (reduction of sub-distributors). This attractive. We recommend to BUY Sinopharm. TP is happened in 2013-16, when the total no. of drugs HK$42.00. distributors shrunk from 16300 to 12975. Industry sales contributed by sub-distributors dropped from 43% to Industry comparison between China and U.S. revealed that 41%, while the industry gross margin increased from Chinese pharmaceutical distributors are in a more 6.7% to 7%. favourable position relatively. This is due to two reasons: 3) Shorter accounts receivable collection period starting 1) The distributors’ suppliers (drug makers) and customers from late 2018. This is thanks to: (drug stores and hospitals) are fragmented and hence unable to exert much power on them. The market a) Central govt’s determination to achieve this. In share of the top 5 Chinese pharmaceutical May 2017, the State Council’s medical reform manufacturers and retailers were just 6-9% and 11% office stated that the payment period to in 2016 respectively (compared to >40% and >70% in distributors will be a new KPI for public hospitals. the US in 2007). Hospitals remain the largest drug sales Beijing has already implemented this. channel, contributing 68% of drug sales in 2016. There were 29,719 hospitals in China as of Jun 2017, which is b) Surge of prices of medical services will increase still highly fragmented in our view. Unlike their peers in public hospitals’ revenues which will help them to U.S., they are unable to exert price pressure on drug pay distributors on time, e.g. Ningxia provincial distributors, who can thus maximise margins, a crucial govt allowed a 25% price surge of 65 services in condition for their growth in the next 5 years; Jul 2017. 2) Compared with U.S., the development of China’s Why isn’t the re-rating happening now? The market has healthcare industry is still in its infancy, evidenced by its two concerns: low healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP 1) Drop of sales to sub-distributors will impact listed (5.5% vs 17% in 2014) and a smaller proportion of its distributors’ revenues. Top 5 players generated 22-50% population aged 60 and over (14% vs 20% in 2013). of their distribution revenues from sub-distributors in That implies plenty of room to grow because as the 2016; population ages, the demand for medicines will increase. 2) Surge of interest expense in 2017 & 18 due to increase of account receivables (AR) days from public hospitals. Public hospitals can no longer mark up prices on drug sales, since Sep 2017. This has deprived them of a key Page 3 Asian Insights SparX China Pharmaceutical Distribution Sector Re-rating of China pharmaceutical Number of pharmaceutical distributors has been distributors will occur in 2018 decreasing since 2013 We expect China pharmaceutical distributors will be re-rated 17000 16300 in 2018 driven by: 16000 14900 1) Accelerating market share gain for big firms thanks to 15000 13900 drastic reduction of small players resulting from 14000 13500 13508 measures taken by govt in 2016-17; 12975 13000 2) Profit margin expansion thanks to: a) less price pressure 12000 resulting from reduced competition and; b) rising share 11000 of direct sales due to disintermediation (elimination of small sub-distributors); 10000 9000 3) Lower accounts receivables days starting from late 2018 driven by central govt.
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