A Spatial Model of Potential Jaguar Habitat in Arizona Author(S): James R
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A Spatial Model of Potential Jaguar Habitat in Arizona Author(s): James R. Hatten, Annalaura Averill-Murray, William E. Van Pelt Source: The Journal of Wildlife Management, Vol. 69, No. 3 (Jul., 2005), pp. 1024-1033 Published by: Allen Press Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3803341 Accessed: 19/09/2009 18:33 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=acg. Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit organization founded in 1995 to build trusted digital archives for scholarship. We work with the scholarly community to preserve their work and the materials they rely upon, and to build a common research platform that promotes the discovery and use of these resources. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email protected]. Allen Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to The Journal of Wildlife Management. http://www.jstor.org A SPATIALMODEL OF POTENTIALJAGUAR HABITAT IN ARIZONA JAMESR. HATTEN,1'2Arizona Game and Fish Department,Wildlife Management Division, Nongame Branch, 2221 West Green- way Road, Phoenix,AZ 85023, USA ANNALAURAAVERILL-MURRAY, Arizona Game and Fish Department,Region V, FieldOperations Division, Tucson, AZ, 85710, USA WILLIAME. VANPELT, Arizona Game and Fish Department,Wildlife Management Division, Nongame Branch, 2221 West Green- way Road, Phoenix,AZ 85023, USA Abstract:The jaguar (Pantheraonca) is an endangered species that occasionally visits the southwestern United States from Mexico. The number ofjaguar sightings per decade has declined over the last 100 years in Arizona, USA, rais- ing conservation concerns for the species at a local and national level. In 1997, state, federal, and local govern- ments with land-management responsibilities agreed to characterize and identify potential jaguar habitat in Ari- zona and New Mexico. Specifically, the objectives of our analysis were 2-fold: (1) characterize potential jaguar habitat in Arizona from historic sighting records and (2) create a statewide habitat suitability map. We used a Geo- graphic Information System (GIS) to characterize potential jaguar habitat by overlaying historic jaguar sightings (25) on landscape and habitat features believed important (e.g., vegetation biomes and series, elevation, terrain ruggedness, proximity to perennial or intermittent water sources, human density). The amount of Arizona (%) identified as potential jaguar habitat ranged from 21% to 30% depending on the input variables. Mostjaguar sight- ings were in scrub grasslands between 1,220 and 1,829-m elevation in southeastern Arizona, in intermediately to extremely rugged terrain, and within 10 km of a water source. Conservation efforts should focus on protecting the most suitable jaguar habitat in southeastern Arizona (i.e., Santa Cruz, Pima, Cochise, Pinal, Graham counties), travel corridors within and outside Arizona, and jaguar habitat in the Sierra Madres of Sonora, Mexico. JOURNALOF WILDLIFEMANAGEMENT 69(3):1024-1033; 2005 Keywords: Arizona, Pantheraonca, conservation, Geographic Information System, GIS, habitat selection, landscape, neighborhood analysis, predictive modeling, jaguar. Jaguars have been noted for their adaptability to In the southwestern United States, potential prey a wide variety of environmental conditions (Rabi- species include collared peccary (Tayassutajacu), nowitz and Nottingham 1986, Seymour 1989). white tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), mule Habitat studies in the core part ofjaguar range in- deer (Odocoileushemionus), coatis (Nasua nasua), dicate a close association with water, dense cover skunk (Mephitis spp., Spilogalegracilis), raccoon (Schaller and Crawshaw1980, Quigley and Craw- (Procyonlotor), jack rabbit (Lepus spp.), domestic shaw 1992), sufficient prey (Seymour 1989, Swank livestock, and horses. and Teer 1989), and an avoidance of highly dis- The southwestern United States and Sonora, turbed areas (Quigley and Crawshaw 1992). Mexico are at the extreme northern limits of the Jaguars have been found from sea level to 3,800 m jaguar's range that extends primarily from north- (Tewes and Schmidly 1987) but rarely over 1,000 m ern Argentina to central Mexico (Swank and Teer (Seymour 1989). They have also been found in a 1989, Sanderson et al. 2002). Over the last century, wide variety of vegetation communities from trop- the jaguar's range has been reduced to approxi- ical rainforest and flooded grassland mosaics to mately 46% of its historic (pre-1900) range due to Madrean evergreen woodland, semi-desert grass- hunting pressure and habitat loss, especially in the lands, and wooded canyons of the Sonoran southern United States, northern Mexico, north- Desert (Rabinowitz 1999, Brown and Lopez Gon- ern Brazil, and southern Argentina (Swank and zales 2001 ). Teer 1989, Sanderson et al. 2002). Jaguars have Jaguars are opportunistic feeders with more been documented occasionally in the southwest- than 85 prey species reported in their diet (Sey- ern United States since 1900, but the number of mour 1989), including mammals, reptiles, and sightings per decade has declined over the last 100 birds. Primary prey items are diurnal, terrestrial years (Brown 1983). In 1996, there were 2 jaguars mammals with a body mass >1 kg (Seymour 1989). photographed in the mountains of southeastern Arizona (Glenn 1996, Childs 1998), raising con- servation concerns for the species at local and na- tional levels and the 1 Present address: USGS, 5501 A Cook-Underwood prompting federal govern- Road, Cook, WA 98605-9717, USA. ment to list the jaguar as endangered (Federal 2 Corresponding author e-mail:[email protected] Register 1997). 1024 J. Wildl.Manage. 69(3):2005 CHARACTERIZINGPOTENTIAL JAGUAR HABITAT * Hatten et al. 1025 Representatives of local, state, and federal gov- jaguars occupied an area before capture or sight- ernments with land-management responsibilities ing, making it difficult for us to distinguish a travel in Arizona and New Mexico signed a Memoran- corridor from actual jaguar habitat. dum of Agreement (MOA) to implement a Con- To address these concerns, we screened the sight- servation Agreement forjaguar (Johnson and Van ing records for accuracy and created 3 different Pelt 1997). One of the main objectives of the Con- habitat suitability models by altering the input vari- servation Agreement was to identify potential ables (habitat or landscape features). We defined jaguar habitat in Arizona and New Mexico to help habitat suitabilitythe same as potentialjaguar habi- focus conservation efforts and identify opportu- tat (i.e., any area containing the features associated nities forjaguar habitat management. Signatories with jaguar sites as determined from our GIS of the MOA established numerous teams, includ- [ESRI, Redlands, California, USA] analysis) or ing aJaguar Scientific Advisory Group and a Habi- meeting the criteria supplied by the Jaguar Scien- tat Subcommittee. Arizona was considered the tific Advisory Group. Our first habitat suitability best starting point for mapping potential jaguar model was the most conservative because we only habitat in the United States because it contained used input variables found to be important in a the greatest number of jaguar reports north of GIS analysis. Our second model examined the Mexico during the 20th century (Rabinowitz sensitivity of the first model by relaxing some of 1999). Specifically, the objectives of our analysis the input criteria, allowing us to examine patch were twofold: (1) characterize potential jaguar connectivity and travel corridors. Our third model habitat in Arizona from historic sighting records was the most general, developed to include addi- and (2) create a statewide habitat suitability map. tional biomes that might have been missed in our GIS analysis due to spatial error or from errors of METHODS omission related to observational data. We characterized potentialjaguar habitat by over- Modeling Approach laying historic jaguar sightings and coarse-scaled In order to map potential jaguar habitat in Ari- habitat features we thought were important. We zona, we first had to identify and characterize it. took a landscape approach by focusing on coarse- The Jaguar Scientific Advisory Group recom- scaled habitat features because the jaguar sites had mended not using prey density as a criterion for highly variable positional error, making them insuf- jaguar habitat because wildlife agencies can man- ficient for a fine-scaled analysis. Coarse-scaledhabi- age wild game populations to increase in num- tat features considered important included vegeta- bers. They also recommended excluding areas tion biomes (ecosystems) and series (defined by with high human density or areas with anthro- dominant or characteristic species), elevation and pogenic impacts because jaguars are secretive an- terrain ruggedness, proximity to perennial or inter-