=East Sussex Local Economic Assessment East Sussex County Council June 2011
In association with:
East Sussex Local Economic Assessment
Contents
______Executive summary...... i Foreword...... 1 Introducing East Sussex ...... 2 1 The economy ...... 5 1.1 The story so far ...... 5 1.2 The impact of the recession ...... 10 1.3 The short and medium term – the future of East Sussex ...... 12 2 Business and enterprise...... 18 2.1 Business dynamism & entrepreneurship...... 18 2.2 Business demography: turnover, size, sectors and markets ...... 21 2.3 The impact of the recession ...... 26 2.4 East Sussex’s unique business landscape: specialisms and future jobs growth.29 3 People and community...... 34 3.1 Demography...... 35 3.2 The labour market ...... 40 3.3 Well-being & Community...... 53 4 Place...... 58 4.1 Heritage and natural assets ...... 58 4.2 Transport...... 60 4.3 Housing...... 67 4.4 Employment space...... 71 4.5 ICT infrastructure ...... 76 4.6 Transition to a low carbon economy...... 79 5 Drivers, trends and influencers ...... 91 5.1 A global perspective...... 91 5.2 A UK perspective ...... 92 5.3 A local perspective ...... 98 6 Conclusion...... 100 6.1 SWOT Analysis ...... 100 6.2 How strong is the local economy?...... 102
Appendix A1: Method notes and additional charts; A2 Document, Strategy, Plan References; A3 Consultees and acknowledgments Appendix B: Local Authority Districts Individual Summaries: Detail on individual local authority areas Appendix C: About Experian
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East Sussex LEA
Executive summary
With recent changes in the economic and political landscape, it is a critical time to undertake a review of the evidence to reflect a different context, and map out the key future challenges facing the County of East Sussex.
Economic performance in East Sussex has historically lagged behind the regional and national average, largely due to a strong presence of generally low-value added sectors such as retail, distribution, hotels and catering. In addition, the business base is characterised by a large proportion of small businesses with a focus on local markets.
East Sussex has a number of sectoral strengths it can build on. The County has a number of businesses in higher value added sectors, such as financial and business services, and advanced manufacturing and engineering. Further, sectors such as tourism, health care, and construction, although sometimes overlooked because of their low-value added as mentioned above, can provide much needed future sources of jobs at a time where public sector cuts announced in the 2010 Spending Review will have an impact on employment levels.
There are a number of areas, most notably Hastings, where deprivation and worklessness are long-lasting challenges which have been aggravated by the recession, and could worsen with future spending cuts. Low job density is an outstanding issue for the County even before considering potential cuts in public sector jobs.
In addition, there remain a number of barriers to business investment. Road and rail links in the County are poorly connected and often congested, impacting on its attractiveness as a place to live, work or visit. Employment land is relatively cheap, but many businesses are not satisfied with the quality or quantity of premises. Residents and businesses of East Sussex are relatively less likely to have access to the internet, whilst large tranches are not served by high speed broadband.
Looking ahead, there are a number of factors that will impact on the County economy. For example, public sector spending cuts will force the economy to rebalance away from public sector jobs building a more sustainable economic path. The already strong health care sector in the area will need to strengthen further due to an ageing population. However, there are fears that the austerity measures could increase already high levels of polarisation in the County and that the economy could be left behind as increasing dependency ratios and competition from emerging markets undermine growth.
East Sussex will not sit back and hope to weather the upcoming period of fiscal constraint; it will continue to encourage private sector investment and job creation. This Local Economic Assessment provides evidence of the challenges that need to be addressed to achieve a sustainable growth path.
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For further information on this research, please contact:
Shelagh Lorne Powell Senior Economic Development Manager Economic Development and Skills Economy, Transport, Environment Department East Sussex County Council Tel. 01424 203941/ 01273 482637
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Foreword
The Local Economic Assessment (LEA) Duty for upper tier local authorities was enshrined in the Local Democracy, Economic Development and Construction Act 2009 in order to provide the tool to play a stronger role in local economic development.
The development of the LEA coincides with the need, under the Pride of Place Integrated Sustainable Community Strategy, for East Sussex to develop a new Economic Development Strategy (EDS) for the County. The LEA informs the development of the EDS as the evidence base.
The 5th East Sussex Annual Business Survey took place early 2010 and provides a clear articulation of the local business voice as part of the development of the new LEA. The 2011 Annual Business Survey is also referred to where business views and concerns have significantly changed from that reported in 2010. The development of the LEA also included regular input from officers from relevant ESCC departments and economic development colleagues from the Boroughs/Districts. Two workshops were also held; one to enable business input and one for the East Sussex Strategic Partnership Assembly. A full list of consultees is given at Appendix A3.
In addition the development of a robust LEA needed to be linked to, inform and be informed by other relevant policy and evidence documents at various levels, national to local; for example at the local level this included District/Borough Local Development Frameworks (LDFs), their (draft) Core Strategies and supporting documents, and the for County the developing Local Transport Plan 3. A list of relevant documents, strategies and plans is given at Appendix A2.
At the same time the LEA was being developed the new Coalition Government came into power in May 2010. This government heralded the introduction and planning for large public sector spending cuts accompanied by increased fiscal austerity, for example in relation (immediately) to revenue grants for regeneration in the more deprived areas. The Government intends to ‘rebalance’ the economy away from public sector job dependency and in order to do this and not exacerbate high employment levels post recession; it expects private sector jobs to be created. To date the expectation and Coalition Government focus for this has been mainly in the midlands and the north there seeming to be an expectation that London, the south east and east England are sufficiently economically advanced to produce the private sector jobs required (generally) without intervention. This view however of the south east (and London and east England) being a region(s) of socio economic parity across the area is false as there are recognised areas at ward, town and part city level where the ‘parity’ is more in line with the north than the south; this LEA identifies those areas within East Sussex where this occurs.
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In addition, as part of a raft of already enacted and intended policy changes regionally led economic and spatial planning (as in the Regional Development Agencies, and Regional Government Offices) was to go thereby consigning the ‘regions’ (on the whole – see above) to geographic areas only. Some key policy changes e.g. the Localism Bill are still going through Parliament, others, as in the White Paper are already out and guiding changes including the introduction of Local Enterprise Partnerships, the new sub regional areas introduced as a replacement, in part, for ‘regions’.
Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) are new business led partnerships set
up to drive sustainable economic growth and create the conditions for East Sussex is a truly private sector job creation in their communities. East Sussex has joined the authorities of Kent and Essex County Councils and the Unitaries of diverse County with Southend - on - Sea, Thurrock and Medway in a LEP; there are distinct rural areas, urban advantages to being in the 2nd largest LEP especially in terms of influence centres and market the LEP as a whole can exert on national Government and its Departments and, though to a slightly lesser extent, the EU Commission. LEP activity will towns. concentrate on areas where it can add value, to include broadband, technology, transport and enterprise infrastructure, growth sectors and skills.
In early spring 2011 the LEA was subject to one months comment by wider stakeholders via the ESCC internet. Responses were reviewed and fed in as appropriate and also into the draft EDS. The draft EDS will be subject to a full three months consultation also via the internet summer 2011. In support of the vision, short to medium term actions will be identified within the new policy and fiscal context. The LEA will be refreshed as required and the LEA/EDS fully reviewed when the 2011 Census data becomes available 2013/14.
Introducing East Sussex
East Sussex comprises the coastal boroughs of Eastbourne and Hastings, and the larger, more rural districts of Lewes, Rother and Wealden. It has a population of just over half a million people and covers an area of 1,725km² (660 square miles). With over three-quarters of the population living in urban areas or market towns these are the main economic drivers for the County. Geographically however the rest of the County is predominately rural or agricultural in nature with almost two thirds falling either within the High Weald Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty or the South Downs National Park (established March 2010).
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East Sussex enjoys a potentially strategic location and an outstanding local environment. It is geographically close to national economic hubs such as London and more locally the city of Brighton and Hove, and has good access to mainland Europe through the county port of Newhaven as well as via neighbouring Ashford International Station and Gatwick airport. However the inadequate transport infrastructure (road and rail) generally strips the County of taking best advantage of its location.
As with other areas, the coastal strip suffered as visitor numbers declined in the latter part of the last century due to increased accessibility and the increasingly low cost of mainland Europe as a holiday destination. This exacerbated the existing problems of a low wage economy focused around low value tourism and the care industry. Rural area employment has suffered from changes to traditional land based industries and generally poor access to basic services and amenities. Consequently, some of the most deprived areas in the country are located in East Sussex. The most significant levels of deprivation are concentrated in Hastings and Eastbourne and to a lesser extent, Bexhill, although the relative affluence of many rural areas hides pockets of deprivation in some of the market towns for example Hailsham, Newhaven and Rye. Plans for regeneration and economic growth are made more challenging by poor ICT connectivity including broadband connectivity and speed and gaps in mobile phone network coverage.
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East Sussex LEA Section 1
The economy
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1 The economy
Section 1 – Summary
• Economic performance has historically lagged behind the regional and national average, largely because of a strong presence of low- value added sectors such as retail, distribution, traditional tourism, hotels and catering, and care. • The recession has greatly impacted all areas of England, with the South East and East Sussex being no exception. The future of the County’s larger sectors – particularly financial and business services, distribution, hotel and catering and the health sectors – is likely to have an important contribution to the recovery of East Sussex as a whole. • The County’s dependence on public sector jobs, particularly in areas such as Hastings where worklessness is already a long-standing challenge, is a cause for concern in the current fiscal climate. Private sector growth and job creation is critical to counterbalance future job losses and tackle worklessness.
1.1 The story so far
East Sussex’s economic performance has historically lagged behind the regional and national average.
1.1a East Sussex represents a small fraction of the South East economy. In 2010 East Sussex’s forecast Gross Value Added (GVA)1 totalled £7,656 million or 4.4% of the regional total.2 Wealden contributed the most to the County’s total output (26.9%), followed by Eastbourne (22.1%), Lewes (19.5%), Hastings (17.0%) and Rother (14.5%). The number in employment in East Sussex (January – December 2009) was 223,300, an employment rate of 74.7%.
1.1b Note that where forecasts are ascribed to Cambridge Econometrics and the Local Economic Forecasting Model this includes the latest data available at the time of running the model; some relates to 2008, some the 2001 Census. It is pre recession and the forecasts therefore do not include changes that have happened now because of the recession or may in the future because of public spending cuts/post recession. The forecast however indicates the ‘normal’ strengths and weaknesses within the economy and where growth was (and would normally be) expected and in view of that; some areas, e.g. public sector employment (though perhaps not
1 Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure of the value of the goods and services produced in the economy, less bought in materials and services. It measures the contributions made to the economy of each producer, industry or sector. 2 Cambridge Econometrics, Local Economic Forecasting Model, Forecast Round 101 (February 2010). For more information see Appendix A
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health/social work), construction and manufacturing will be over ‘optimistic’ in terms of short/middle term future growth projections in particular, however the forecasts remain a valuable monitoring tool of private sector growth progression against the ‘norm’ and will act as a benchmark for future sector growth.
Figure 1.1: East Sussex GVA and employment by local authority, 2010 forecasts Employment Output
(as % of County) (as % of County) Eastbourne 22.1 22.1 Hastings 16.8 17.0 Lewes 19.0 19.5 Rother 15.0 14.5 Wealden 27.2 26.9 Source: Cambridge Econometrics, Local Economic Forecasting Model, 2010
1.1c This relatively low proportion of GVA is a reflection of a number of factors – not least that the East Sussex economy is heavily dependent on a wide number of low-value, low-productivity industries which are more reliant on low skilled workers. Coastal areas have always been more dependent on the public sector, tourism and retail. The lower GVA is also a result of structural change with manufacturing moving out of the area or closing down especially in the 60s and 70s, and more recently losing ground to competition from emerging markets.
1.1d Further, as explained in more detail in Section 2, businesses in the County are small, and focused on local markets. Job density is also low helping to explain relative disadvantage brought about by worklessness.3 In addition, East Sussex’s age structure, skewed towards older age groups, means the economy has a smaller pool of working age labour force to draw from. As such, local productivity lags regional averages.4 Measures of GVA per head show that the County has historically underperformed compared to England and the South East and this gap in performance is slightly increasing (Figure 1.2). Over at least the last nine years, GVA per head remained at less than 75% of the England average over that time. It is now at £14,018/head (2008 Office for National Statistics (ONS)).
3 For more information see sections 2 and 3. 4 In addition, East Sussex represents only 4.5 per cent of the regional employment base and 8 per cent of the business base, reflecting the large presence of small firms in the County. For a definition of the sector, see the Appendix.
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Figure 1.2: GVA per head, 1995-2008
£25,000 UK (less Extra-Regio) South East Brighton and Hove East Sussex West Sussex
£20,000
£15,000 GVA per head
£10,000
£5,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
The County has a relatively high proportion of low-value added sectors such as distribution, hotels and catering, and vulnerable sectors such as public administration.
1.1e A local economy with high dependence on businesses in a small number of sectors is reliant on the fortunes of those sectors and the market forces that impact upon them. Ideally a local area will enjoy a diverse mix of sectors, helping to cushion the impact of economic shocks in any one of them.
1.1f The sectoral composition of the East Sussex economy differs significantly from that of the wider region and the UK as a whole. East Sussex is visibly more dependent on public administration, education & health.5 This was forecast to contribute nearly 24.4% of total GVA in East Sussex against a South East dependency of 18% (2010). However it is important to note that the forecast was undertaken prior to the Spending Review so it reflects the expected trend prior to the review. In particular, the health (11.9% of total GVA) and public administration (7.0% of total GVA) sub-sectors make up a large proportion of the County’s output. In the face of public sector cuts, with public administration one of the more exposed sub- sectors within the public sector, this may become a significant issue.
1.1g Distribution, hotels and catering is also a relevant sector in East Sussex in terms of output, which is not surprising given the County’s natural assets and strengths in the visitor economy.6 It represents 17.5% of the local economy compared to 15.4% of the regional economy.
1.1h The manufacturing and construction sectors are also important, contributing 10.3% compared to 9.7% across the region and construction at 7.1% compared to 5.7% in the South East.
5 Note that the Cambridge Econometrics model refers to Public administration, education & health as non market services. For clarity, throughout this report we refer to the name used by standard broad SIC codes classifications. 6 The sector also enjoys the largest business base – see figure 3.12.
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1.1i Whilst the County has a relatively small financial, business services and other market services sector compared to the region the sector remains a large contributor to East Sussex output.7 Although this broad sector captures a number of services (see footnote 8), professional services is one of the highest contributors to output, representing 7.8% of the County’s total GVA.
Figure 1.3: GVA by broad sector, 2010 forecast
Mining & Quarrying Electricity, Gas & Water Agriculture Transport & Communications Construction Manufacturing Distribution, Retail, Hotels & Catering Public administration, education & health Fin., Bus. & Other Mkt. Services 100%
90% 7.1% 6.0% 5.7% 80% 10.3% 12.8% 9.7% 70% 15.4% 17.5% 16.1% 60%
50% 18.0% 24.4% 20.8% 40%
30%
20% 40.7% 33.8% 35.2% 10%
0% UK South East East Sussex Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
Figure 1.4: GVA by detailed sector, 2010 forecast
Health & Social Work 11.9% Retailing 7.8% Prof. Services 7.8% Construction 7.1% Public Admin. & Def. 7.0% Misc. Services 6.9% East Sussex Education 6.6% South East 6.6% Distribution UK Hotels & Catering 4.0% Banking & Finance 3.2% Other Bus. Services 2.5% Communications 2.4% Computing Services 2.3% Land Transport 2.2% Elec., Engineering & … 1.7%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% Sectoral contribution to output (% of total GVA in 2010) Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
7 It also has the second largest business base – see figure 3.12. Please note that according to the Cambridge Econometrics model broad sector classification this includes SIC codes 37-39 sewerage, waste collection and remediation activities (excl 38.3 materials recovery), 64-74 financial and insurance activities, real estate and professional scientific and technical activities, 78 employment activities, 80-82 security and investigation activities, services to building and landscape activities and office administrative, and other business support activities, 94 activities of membership organisations, 96-98 other personal activities and activities of households as employers.
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1.1j The financial, business and other market services sector contributes the most to total output – partly due to the high-value added of some of the activities within the sector.
1.1k The 2010 forecast also suggests that the public sector is the largest sector in terms of employment (33.5% of total employment), followed by distribution, retail, hotels and catering (24.1%). It is a fact that these two sectors locally provide a large pool of jobs, particularly for lower skilled workers in the case of the latter.
1.1l With 21% of total employment, the financial, business and services sector also constitutes a significant source of jobs in the area; this sector is most likely to recover the quickest from the recession. As with output, manufacturing and construction also have a large presence in terms of the number of jobs provided, however the construction sector in particular is now one of the most vulnerable due to reduced public sector spend and house build. Figure 1.6 provides more detailed sectoral break-downs.
Figure 1.5: Employment by broad sector, 2010 forecast8
Mining & Quarrying Electricity, Gas & Water Agriculture etc Transport & Communications Manufacturing Construction Fin., Bus. & Other Mkt. Services Distribution, Retail, Hotels & Catering Public administration, education and health 100%
90% 7.6% 9.0% 7.5% 8.3% 80% 6.7% 7.0%
70% 21.0% 29.3% 60% 26.8%
50% 24.1% 40% 21.9% 22.2% 30%
20% 33.5% 27.1% 25.9% 10%
0% UK South East East Sussex Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
8 Sectoral breakdowns by district are included in the Appendix.
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Figure 1.6: Employment by detailed sector, 2010 forecast
Health & Social Work 18.5% Retailing 10.2% Education 9.8% Construction 8.1% Hotels & Catering 7.8% Misc. Services 7.6% Distribution 6.2% ES SE UK Prof. Services 5.9% Public Admin. & Def. 5.5% Other Bus. Services 4.6% Agriculture 2.6% Land Transport etc 2.0% Elec. Engineering & … 1.2% Computing Services 1.1% Banking & Finance 1.1%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Sectoral contribution to output (% of total GVA in 2010) Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
Historically, output growth has fluctuated in East Sussex, with a peak between 2000 and 2005
1.1m Over the period 2000-2007, up until the fall of Northern Rock in 2008 and the onset of the recession, the East Sussex economy grew by an average of 2.3% year. This was however fractionally slower than regional growth rates (2.5%).
1.1n Despite marginally lagging regional GVA growth rates between 2000- 2007, East Sussex out-performed the South East in growth terms for a part of this period as the County enjoyed a significant period of GVA growth with a peak in 2005 (Figure 1.2). Between 2000 and 2005, East Sussex experienced an average annual GVA growth rate of 3.1% compared to 2.8% regionally. This growth was particularly driven by a number of key sectors, particularly construction and financial and business services.
1.1o However, output growth slowed down in the period that preceded the recession; between 2006 and 2007 there was a notable decline in output across East Sussex. This decline was felt most acutely in Hastings, Rother, and Wealden and was influenced by sectors including transport & communications when average annual growth rates more than halved.
1.1p In terms of employment over the pre-recession period (2000-2007) employment growth in the County fluctuated with an average annual growth of 0.8%, in line with regional growth rates. As with output, it enjoyed a period of high growth between in 2002 and 2005. However, the onset of recession saw severe declines in employment levels in the County, an issue we explore further in the following sub-section.
1.2 The impact of the recession
The recession has greatly impacted all local areas, with the South East and East Sussex being no exception.
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1.2a Although output was at its highest in East Sussex in 2008 when GVA totalled £7,926 million,9 it is not expected to return to this level until 2012. The East Sussex economy moved into the downturn slightly earlier than the South East (figure 1.7). During the worst of the recession in 2009 it experienced decline in output at a pace comparable to that of the region (5.0% against 5.2% in the South East).
1.2b Low output growth is to be expected as the downturn had an impact on a number of sectors. Public administration, education & health, a sector often associated with resilience to economic shocks performed relatively better than other sectors during the worst of the recession.10 Although financial and business services were hit hard at the onset of the recession, it soon became apparent that this sector was recovering faster than other During the worst of industries. Distribution, retail, hotels and catering saw a lower decline the recession, compared to other sectors in the economy; East Sussex saw smaller declines in this sector compared to the region. decline in output and employment in the 1.2c Notably, manufacturing and construction were badly impacted by the recession across the country. Whilst manufacturing firms were affected by County was broadly the decrease in global demand, construction is a highly cyclical industry in line with the anyway. In East Sussex, the percentage decline in manufacturing and regional average. construction output was slightly higher than the South East.
Figure 1.7: Change in GVA output, 2009
East Sussex South East
‐5.0% Total Output ‐5.2%
‐14.6% Construction ‐12.8%
‐9.3% Manufacturing ‐8.4%
‐5.3% Fin., Bus. & Other Mkt. Services ‐5.5%
‐4.7% Distribution, Retail, Hotels & Catering ‐5.5%
1.0% Public administration, education & health 0.9%
‐16% ‐14% ‐12% ‐10% ‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% 0% 2% Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010 Change in GVA 2009
1.2d Declines in employment levels have been similar in East Sussex to those of the wider South East region. Between 2008 and 2009 there was a 2.1% decline in employment levels with a subsequent forecast 1.3% decline between 2009 and 2010. This amounts to about 6,800 job losses between 2008 and 2010 and needs to be considered in a context of relatively low job
9 Cambridge Econometrics, Local Economic Forecasting Model, Forecast Round 101, February 2010. 10 The size of these sectors in terms of output can be seen in figure 2.3.
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density and high unemployment and claimant rates, particularly in Hastings and Eastbourne, as discussed in more detail in Section 2. These job losses will impact the five East Sussex local authorities differently in terms of actual job losses. Job losses (trend and forecast) will be higher in Wealden (over 2,500 jobs) and Lewes (over 1,850 jobs). Hastings (over 950 jobs) Rother (over 900 jobs) and Eastbourne (over 550 jobs) will have significant, yet fewer losses (albeit from a relative lower base, particularly in the case of Hastings). It is important to highlight that the forecast element does not take into account the impact of the Emergency Budget, the Comprehensive Spending Review and related future public spending cuts. The job losses are therefore likely to be worse.
1.2e As with output, East Sussex suffered slightly higher declines in employment in manufacturing and construction than the South East, potentially reflecting the greater resilience of firms within these sectors outside the County. These two sectors have been amongst those worst affected by the recession Figure 1.8: Change in employment, 2009
East Sussex South East
‐2.1% Tot al ‐2.6%
‐8.2% Manufacturing ‐7.2%
‐7.1% Construction ‐5.1%
‐3.9% Fin., Bus. & Other Mkt. Services ‐4.1%
‐3.4% Distribution, Retail, Hotels & Catering ‐4.2%
2.9% Public administration, education & health 2.9%
‐10% ‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% 0% 2% 4% Employment Change 2009 Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
1.3 The short and medium term – the future of East Sussex
The local economy is forecast to emerge from the recession and grow at a similar rate to the regional economy. Recovery in employment levels will be protracted.
1.3a East Sussex saw GVA decline at an earlier point than was the case nationally and regionally. However, forecasts suggest that the local economy – if expected trends prevailed and without taking into account the impact of the spending review – would emerge from the recession and grow at a similar rate to the region and indeed slightly above the UK average. Over the short term (2010-2012) GVA annual growth is forecast to perform broadly in line with the regional recovery (1.3% growth compared to 1.4% growth). This is also expected to be the case over the medium term with growth between
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2010 and 2020 expected to be 2.4% in East Sussex compared to 2.6% across the region.11
The future of the County’s larger sectors – particularly financial and business services, distribution, hotel and catering and the health sectors – are likely to impact greatly on the recovery of East Sussex as a whole.
1.3b Although affected at the start of the recession, financial business and other market services has been one of the fastest recovering sectors and therefore could have a positive effect on East Sussex’s future performance. Despite being a relatively small sector compared to the region and national average, this sector still makes up a significant proportion of local output and employment.12 Over the 2010-2020 period there are expected to be over 7,500 jobs in this sector created across the County. In particular, activities such as professional services and other business services are forecast to see significant growth over the next 10 years.
1.3c Distribution, retail, hotels and catering should also enjoy significant increases in employment levels, as the tourism and hospitality industry recovers from the impact of the downturn. Over 2,500 jobs are forecast to be created by 2020. Sustainable growth in this sector needs to be encouraged, not just ‘growth’, in addition, growth in seasonal/low skilled tourism related jobs only would be less positive.
1.3d Over the medium term, growth in the public sector, mainly driven by the health sector is forecast to continue, although not at the rates experienced over the last decade. Between 2010 and 2020 it is forecast that normally over 3,000 new jobs would be created in the health sector. Again, it is important to stress that these figures do not incorporate the potential impact of the government’s measures announced in the Comprehensive Spending Review, particularly on public sector job losses and therefore will overestimate the extent of jobs growth in the sector. That said, health is an area expected to be relatively protected compared to other public sector sub-sectors.
11 For an explanation of how the forecasts are derived, please see the Appendix. 12 See figure 1.3.
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Figure 1.9: Job creation, 2010-2020 (Pre-Spending Review Trend Forecast)
7,934 Total 3,754
4,251 Fin., Bus. & Other Mkt. Services 3,574
1,045 Distribution, Retail, Hotels and Catering 1,604
308 Construction 819
84 2015‐2020 Transport & Communications 164 2010‐2015 ‐2 Mining & Quarrying ‐1
‐25 Electricity, Gas & Water ‐23
‐453 Agriculture ‐507
4,069 Public administration, education and health ‐615
‐1,343 Manufacturing ‐1,261
‐4,000 ‐2,000 ‐ 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
The County’s dependence on public sector jobs is a cause for concern in the current fiscal climate. Private sector growth is critical to counterbalance future job losses and tackle worklessness in the area.
1.3e Whilst the County’s high dependence on the public sector may have cushioned the local economy during the recession, this now makes it vulnerable in the face of substantial cuts to public expenditure as outlined in the Chancellor’s 2010 Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR).
1.3f Compared to the south east public sector jobs make up 21.4% against 18.3%; 3% higher. In particular, Eastbourne, Hastings and Lewes could suffer the largest impacts of public sector cuts; almost 5,000 jobs may be lost in these three districts alone under a 20% cut scenario.
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Figure 1.10: Potential direct impact of jobs losses on public sector jobs13 Area Public % Potential job losses depending on sector of different cuts options jobs total 2% 5% 10% 15% 20% jobs
Eastbourne 9100 24 182 455 910 1365 1820 Hastings 7600 27.3 152 380 760 1140 1520 Lewes 8100 26.2 162 405 810 1215 1620 Rother 3900 16.3 78 195 390 585 780 Wealden 6100 14.3 122 305 610 915 1220 East Sussex 34,900 21.4 698 1,745 3,490 4,235 6,980 South East 662,600 18.3 13,252 33,130 66,260 99,390 132,520
1.3g Hastings falls in the top 13% of all local authorities in England for the percentage of public sector employment, being ranked joint 45th (with Barnsley) out of 354 districts and unitary authorities. Lewes (26%) ranks amongst the top 20% of local authorities in England, while Eastbourne, with 24% public sector employment ranks amongst the top 30%.
1.3h Wealden (14%) and Rother (16%) both have lower rates of public sector employment that the national or regional average. Figure 1.11: Largest government departments in East Sussex14 Number of Government Department Local authority employees Child Maintenance Enforcement Commission Hastings 1,030 National Offender Management Service Lewes 400
Jobcentre Plus Hastings 330
HM Revenue and Customs Hastings 140 Department for Transport (excl agencies) Hastings 140
Jobcentre Plus Eastbourne 90
HM Revenue and Customs Lewes 70
HM Courts Service Lewes 60 Source: ONS, Civil Service Employment, end of March 2009
13 These new estimates place employee jobs into seven distinct categories based on the legal structure of the employer. Public sector employee jobs include those in “Public Corporations”, “Nationalised Bodies”, “Central Government and Local Authorities” while private sector employee jobs include those in “Companies”, “Sole Proprietors”, “Partnerships” but also “Non-Profit Bodies and Mutual Associations”. (Source ONS). 14 This dataset only covers civil servants working for central government departments. Those departments employing more than 50 employees have been selected.
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1.3i Direct public sector job losses are likely to come from two major directions; where government grants to the non departmental public sector (e.g. local authorities) are cut, thereby reducing funded activity and related jobs and; cuts to central government departments resulting in local job losses within the departments and reduced departmental spend. The major government departments (health and education aside) represented locally are shown above.
1.3j To give a quantifiable overview to the extent of departmental cuts 2010 – 2015 under the CSR the following identifies some of the most relevant areas for reduced spend: - Dept. Business Innovation and Skills: University teaching budget to be cut by 40% and further education budget to fall by 25%. - Dept. Communities & Local Government: Communities - current spending down 51%; capital spending down 74%; Local Government - current spending down 27%. - Dept. for Transport: Current spending down 21%; capital spending down 11%. - Dept. for Culture, Media and Sport: Current spending down 24%; capital spending down 32%; core arts programmes will see a 15% fall in funding.
1.3k It must be noted that public sector organisations subject to cuts will also include the universities, colleges (as shown above) and schools which, in themselves, are large employers; university cuts are most likely to affect those who live in Lewes and work in either Brighton or Sussex universities.
1.3l Further, cuts in public spending not only have direct impacts through job losses, but can also have knock-on effects on private sector activities and the community and voluntary sector that supply their goods and services to the public sector. In particular private business that supply office machinery, computers, construction, and education, are amongst those providing a considerable proportion of goods and services to the sector that could be therefore affected by austerity measures.
1.3m Low job density is an outstanding issue for the County (this is analysed in more detail in section 3) even before considering potential cuts in public sector jobs. In fact currently, “if the number of job vacancies in the County were three times the number advertised in Jobcentre Plus offices, and if only half the 29,500 workless residents in the county were actually able to work, this would still leave a job deficit of around 8,500 jobs across the county, with the greatest shortfall being in Hastings.” 15
1.3n Therefore, dramatically increasing the number of jobs available in all parts of the County, particularly in the coastal towns and Lewes, is critical for the economy to counterbalance potential job cuts in the public sector, existing job shortage and attain a sustainable growth path.
15 East Sussex County Council (2010) Interim East Sussex Employability and Workless Reduction Plan 2010
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East Sussex LEA Section 2 Business and enterprise
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East Sussex LEA
2 Business and enterprise
Section 2 – Summary
• Although business births have grown steadily over the past 5 years in East Sussex, particularly in Rother and Lewes, they remain below regional and national averages. • The County’s business base is characterised by a large number of small and micro businesses focused on local markets; there is a need to increase the number of SMEs entering further national and international markets and to attract larger employers. • Self employment is higher than average in the county which could
Start-up rates in East indicate a good sense of entrepreneurship; barriers to growth/start ups however need to be addressed (for example access to finance). Sussex are still • With the spending cuts private sector growth and job creation and below the national rebalancing the economy is critical. Building on the existing business average, despite base, East Sussex should exploit a number of specialisms that can provide much needed future jobs in sectors such as Health and steady growth. Care, Tourism, and Construction. Further, East Sussex can also develop niche high value added sectors that play to its current strengths, such as Finance and Business Services, some sub- sectors within the creative industries (namely artistic and literary creation, other software consultancy and supply, advertising, architectural and engineering activities), and Advanced Manufacturing and Engineering. Finally, environmental technologies and services are expected to develop considerably over the coming years and there is also potential via E.ON for the Rampion off-shore wind farm for assembly, operations and maintenance activities to be developed at Newhaven.
2.1 Business dynamism & entrepreneurship
Business births have grown steadily over the past five years in East Sussex, particularly in Rother and Lewes. But they remain below regional and national averages.
2.1a A number of new businesses have been set up across the County over the past five years.16 The largest number of business start-ups was in Lewes where between 2009 and 2010 over 480 new businesses were established.
16 The ABI reports a decline between 2005 and 2006, although this source fails to capture smaller businesses.
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Figure 2.1: Business start-ups by district, 2005-201017
1800 Wealden Rother Lewes 1600 Hastings Eastbourne 1400
1200
1000
800
600 Number of of businesses New Number 400
200
0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-2010 Source: Experian pH Group, August 2010
2.1b Despite this steady growth, business start-up rates in East Sussex fall below regional and national averages. Only 8.7% of East Sussex businesses began trading after 1st January 2009 compared to 11.3% across the South East.
Figure 2.2: Business start up rates, 2008 and 2009
UK South East East Sussex % Born Since 2008 14.7% 17.1% 13.3% % Born Since 2009 9.8% 11.3% 8.7% Source: Experian pH Group data, August 2010
2.1c In terms of net change year on year in respect of VAT registrations (business ‘births and deaths’) in 1997 East Sussex had an increase of 380 businesses; by 2007 this was down to 305. The main sectors seeing a net in year increase when comparing the two years were wholesale, retail and repairs, construction and hotels and restaurants. Real estate, renting and business activities saw the biggest increase in negative net in year change, from 300 in 1997 to 190 in 2007, yet the sector remained the largest in 2007 in terms of net new businesses overall. In terms of the Districts the only positive net in year change in the years was in Eastbourne at + 25 (2007), all other districts saw a comparative decrease in net in year change or stood still as in Hastings.
2.1d A high business start up rate is often viewed alongside self- employment levels as an indicator of entrepreneurial activity. East Sussex has high levels of self-employment (15.7%) compared with the South East region (10.4%). Although, as said, self-employment is often used as a proxy for entrepreneurship, it is not always a sign of a strong economy. A high proportion of self-employment in the County may be accounted for by
17 Based on a wide variety of sources, including Companies House and Yell, Experian’s pH Group data is able to capture businesses that fall beneath the VAT threshold.
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lifestyle choices, with many of these businesses providing relatively low value-added products, no employment opportunities for others and services to local markets. In fact, Section 2.2 shows that most businesses in East Sussex serve the local market, with only a small proportion exporting. This is bound to have an impact on productivity and the overall strength of the economy.
Figure 2.3: Self-employment in East Sussex by District, 2009
Self-employed
Number % of people in work UK - 9.0 South East - 10.4 All East Sussex 15.7 46,800 Eastbourne 6,300 11.1 Hastings 6,100 11.4 Lewes 7,900 14.0 Rother 10,600 21.9 Wealden 15,900 19.2 Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan-Dec 2009. 18 Note that confidence intervals vary from +-4.5 to 6.3 at the district level.
2.1e Other sources of evidence suggest that skills and age profiles can also have an impact on entrepreneurship levels. For instance, the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) suggests that individuals are most likely to start a new business when aged 35-44 and that new entrepreneurial activity is particularly low in the 55-64 year old age group.19 In addition, the Total Early Stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) measure indicates that individuals with qualifications at Level 4 and 5 were more likely to be thinking about starting a business. Thus, by these measures the age and skills profile of the County (namely a large elderly population, and a lower than average proportion of those holding Levels 3 and 4) could potentially have a negative impact on the levels of entrepreneurial activity. The amount of ‘free’ money available to start a business will also impact those with a lower disposable income and fewer savings, who will consequently have less to invest in a new business. People in this position are less likely to invest to start with, and/ or may have more chance of failure due to under capitalisation. People in low income areas and/or those who are deprived are more likely to experience this financial barrier to starting a business.
18 Please note that the working age population denominator generally used to calculate rates for many datasets (including self-employment, benefit claimant rates, activity rates, employment rates, amongst others) has recently changed to 16-65 (from 16-59 for women and 16-64 for men). The change also applies to historical data and may explain small discrepancies with older data. This applies to all data sourced from the Annual Population Survey and benefit claimant using working age population as a denominator used throughout this report. 19 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (2008).
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2.2 Business demography: turnover, size, sectors and markets
The County’s business base is characterised by a large number of small and micro businesses focused on local markets.
2.2a Headline estimates for 2010 suggest that there are approximately 22,000 businesses located within the County – 6% of total businesses in the region.20 This compares to approximately 20,000 businesses recorded by the Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR) and Annual Business Inquiry (ABI). Based on a wide variety of sources, including Companies House and Yell, pH Group data is able to capture businesses that fall beneath the VAT threshold. This accounts for the difference between this source and the official sources. The 22,000 businesses in East Sussex are concentrated in Lewes (26.4%) Wealden (22.5%) and Rother (19.3%), followed by Eastbourne (16.6%) and Hastings (15.1%).21
2.2b A very large proportion of the businesses in East Sussex have a turnover of between £100,000 and £250,000; 73.6% of firms have a turnover of less than £250,000 reflecting the high proportion of micro or small businesses in the County. These proportions are in line with the regional average (70.8% of firms have a turnover of less than £250,000 across the South East). There is however a difference in terms of businesses with a larger turnover with a low proportion of businesses in East Sussex having a turnover of over £1 million; 6.5% compared to 8.9% regionally.
Figure 2.4: Turnover in East Sussex, 2010
0.4% 0.3% 0.6% £25M + 5.2% 5.9% £10M to £25M
25.8% £5M to £10M 14.0%
£1M to £5M
£500k to £1M
£250k to £500k
£100k to £250k 47.8%
< 100k
Source: Experian pH Group, August 2010
20 Based on Experian pH Group Business Data, August 2010. 21 ABI 2007 VAT registration data shows a different split: Wealden (36.4%), Lewes (19.1%) and Rother (17.9%), followed by Eastbourne (14.5%) and Hastings (12%). These differences can be accounted for by differences in time period, and by the fact that pH Group data is able to capture businesses that fall beneath the VAT threshold. Rother has by far the highest concentration of businesses with fewer than 5 employees – many of which fall beneath the VAT threshold.
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2.2c Whilst East Sussex businesses constitute around 6% of the South East business base, employment in the County represents only 4.6% of the regional employment base, reflecting the large presence of smaller firms.22
2.2d According to pH data, over 76.7% of businesses in the County employ five people or less. This is higher than the regional average which is 73.9%. Only 2.0% of the business base employs over 50 people against 3.1% in the South East.
Figure 2.5: Businesses by employment size, 2010
0.6% 0.3% 1.1% 3.7% 251+
101-250 6.4%
26.0% 51-100 11.2% 21-50
11-20
6-10
2-5 50.7%
1
Source: Experian pH Group, August 2010
2.2e Data sourced from the ABI (2008) shows similar trends. Micro and small business (fewer than 50 employees) actually employed around 60% of the work force in East Sussex identifying the real importance of business in these smaller size brackets. This is a lot higher than the figures for the region (49%) and the country (45%).
22 ONS (2009), Interdepartmental Business Register (IDBR) (fig remains at 5.9% with new source.
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Figure 2.6: East Sussex business base by size, 2008
60%
50%
40% Great Britain, 55% Britain, Great
30% 52% East, South
20% East Sussex, 39% Sussex, East
% of employment of % 10% East Sussex, 31% Sussex, East East Sussex, 30% Sussex, East Great Britain, 24% Britain, Great South East, 25% East, South South East, 24% East, South 0% 21% Britain, Great 1-10 employees 11-49 employees 50+ employees Size of business ABI, 2008ABI, 2008
2.2f The County therefore does have a relatively unusual number of small businesses. However of these 87% employ fewer than 10 people (micro) and therefore micro businesses account for 30% of total employment in the county (East Sussex Annual Business Survey 2007). Identifying those businesses that wish to grow and supporting as necessary (whatever the size), retaining existing businesses and attracting new larger employers to East Sussex is paramount for job growth.
2.2g Although agriculture (including fishing ,energy and water) accounts for only 0.7% of the employment in the county at 5,231 jobs (2009) it does account for a large area of land use at 67% (116,689 hectares in East Sussex in 2007, of which 57,400 in Wealden, 35,479 in Rother, and 21,972 in Lewes). The Coalition Government via the Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) has issued a new Business Plan (2011 – 2015) where it recognises that the food sector plays an important part in the economy. As part of this plan DEFRA intends to increase the competitiveness and resilience of farms, fisheries and the whole food chain to ensure a secure, environmentally sustainable and healthy supply of food. The Plan also notes that preparing farming for the post 2013 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms is a very important element of work.
2.2h The economy section reported that the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector in the County has a higher representation in terms of businesses than the regional average (20.8%), representing 24.3% of all businesses in the County. This is particularly high in some districts including Hastings (26.8%), Eastbourne (26.5%) and Rother (25.8%). As noted previously, the large presence of this sector in the area is strongly linked to the relevance of tourism and the visitor economy in the County.23
2.2i Furthermore, the proportion of firms within the financial and business services sector is significant (23.3%), even if it lags the regional average
23 Please note that the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes used in Chart 2.7 are slightly different to those used in Section 1.
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(28.8%). Lewes (26.3%) has the highest proportion of firms in this sector, followed by Eastbourne and Wealden (both 23.4%).
2.2j The construction sector also has an important presence in the County: 12.5% of all businesses fall within this industry against 11.7% in the region. Hastings, Rother and Wealden have a high number of businesses in the sector, 13.6%, 13.2% and 13.1% of all businesses respectively (Figure 2.7).
Figure 2.7: East Sussex business base by sector, 201024
Energy and water Transport and communications Agriculture and fishing Manufacturing Public administration, education & health Construction Other services Banking, finance and insurance, etc Distribution, hotels and restaurants 100%
90%
13.5% 80% 11.4% 13.7% 10.8% 10.2% 10.0% 70% 10.9% businesses 12.5% 11.9% 13.6% 13.1% 13.2% 60% 15.2% total 13.7% 14.0% 13.9% 13.0% 12.5% of
50%
40% 23.4% 19.4% 21.9% 23.3% 26.3% 23.4% 30%
Percentage 20%
26.5% 26.8% 25.8% 10% 24.3% 21.3% 23.3%
0% East Sussex Eastbourne Hastings Lewes Rother Wealden Source: Experian pH Group, August 2010
2.2k In addition, according to pH data only a small proportion of businesses are foreign owned (0.6%). This figure is much lower than the regional average (1.6%). Arguably, those firms that are foreign owned have links to international markets and are more likely to export as the activities they perform are less likely to be focused on local markets. The majority of East Sussex businesses however trade only in local markets. Only 0.7% of the business base export abroad. This is lower than the regional average (1.1%). Combined, these indicators suggest that East Sussex has little exposure to international markets compared to the region as a whole.
2.2l The above is reflected in the East Sussex Annual Business Survey 2011 (ESABS11) which identified that 48% of East Sussex businesses described their main market as within 10 miles or within the district/borough, compared to 41% in 2010. At the same time, 24% suggested they would expand their geographic market in the next 12 months versus 15% in 2010. This could represent a growth strategy for the future, having come through difficult times.
2.2m When it comes to business size, as might be expected, Micros (1-10 employees) are more likely (37%) to see their main market as within 10 miles than Small (11-49 employees) at 28% and Medium/Large (50+ employees) at 24% (note small base size for the latter category).
24 Broad sector classification follows Standard Industrial Classifications (SIC) codes 2003.
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2.2n Rother based businesses are the most locally minded amongst the Districts – 43% seeing their main market as within 10 miles versus the average of 36%. Of the Regeneration areas, Bexhill and Polegate & Hailsham are the most locally minded, with 52% and 48% respectively seeing this main market as within 10 miles.
2.2o Bearing in mind that a number of micro and small firms fall within sectors that do not necessarily focus on local markets given the nature of their activities, such as engineering, this suggests that looking ahead there is potential for businesses to widen the markets they currently serve.
East Sussex is home to only a small number of large businesses – many are located in Eastbourne and Wealden.
2.2p Only 0.3% of the East Sussex business base employs over 250 employees, lower than the regional rate (0.7%). Whilst the County does have a few large employers, very few employ over 1000 people. The 20 largest businesses with a presence in the County are outlined below.
Figure 2.8: 100 biggest East Sussex businesses by employment25
Number of businesses with a presence in East Sussex of the top 100 largest employers LAD Eastbourne 31 Hastings 14 Lewes 18 Rother 12 Wealden 25 Source: Experian pH Group data, August 2008
Figure 2.9: Twenty biggest companies with sites in East Sussex
Business LAD Sector
General Dynamics Manufacture of weapons Ltd Hastings and ammunition Wholesale of other The Little Group Ltd Eastbourne household goods Retail sale of A Jones & Sons Ltd Eastbourne footwear/leather goods
25 Please note that all of the analysis has been done at company level, not location level (all of the variables reported relate to the business as a whole, not to a particular branch).
In the majority of cases, the entire business will be East Sussex-based (most businesses are single-site not multi-site), but there will be some where the turnover and employment figures attached includes a proportion of staff and revenue that comes from outside the region, and in a proportion of these, the majority will actually come from elsewhere. In the case of turnover, it is impossible to separate out how much of the company level figure relates to East Sussex and how much to other parts of the country; for employment, Experian holds site level employment for a proportion of businesses, but there will be some significant gaps.
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Manufacture of Trifast Plc Wealden fasteners etc Peoples Choice Activ. auxil. to (Europe) Ltd Rother insur./pension funding
Wholesale of other After the recession, Gardners Books Ltd Eastbourne household goods Wholesale of china and business conditions C Brewer & Sons Ltd Eastbourne glassware etc Coffeeheaven appear to have International Plc Wealden Restaurants stabilised. However, Elite Hotels Hotels and motels, with (Rotherwick) Ltd Wealden restaurant concerns remain Architectural/engineerin Lewes over the impact of Amey Ow Ltd g activities Caffyns Plc Eastbourne Sale of motor vehicles spending cuts on General construction of Rydon Group Ltd Wealden buildings etc private sector Other provision of growth. Park Holidays UK Ltd Hastings lodgings nec Wealden Leisure Ltd Rother Restaurants Retail sale of Friday Holdings Ltd Lewes books/newspapers etc Pest Control Services Ltd Wealden Industrial cleaning Ingram Micro Software consultancy Holdings Ltd Hastings and supply Manufacture of ventilation equipment Hotchkiss Group Ltd Eastbourne etc Washing/dry cleaning of H Tomlins Ltd Eastbourne textile etc Lotlink Direct Wealden Advertising
2.2q Fifty-six of the 100 largest firms with a presence in the County are located in Eastbourne and Wealden.
2.3 The impact of the recession
2.3a The impact of the global economic downturn has been severe, with no local area or sector left unaffected. On a national level, the number of businesses becoming insolvent increased greatly as the recession took hold. Reaching a peak in late 2008, insolvencies have gradually decreased with business conditions slowly improving across the country.
2.3b In line with the South East, East Sussex has weathered the economic storm far better than the country as a whole. With the exception of a high number of insolvencies in the second quarter of 2009 (at which point the County insolvency rate exceeded the national rate)26 rates in East Sussex have remained consistent with the regional average. The low insolvency rate is consistent with the findings of the 2009 business survey. Only 6% of businesses reported making redundancies. Almost three quarters of redundancies (74%) were reported as based in Lewes and Wealden
26 This was underpinned by a large number of insolvencies in Eastbourne and Rother.
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districts. Over a third of the redundancies reported in East Sussex were in administration functions (41%) and just under a third in production functions (25%).27
2.3c When viewed alongside the business birth rate, the relatively low insolvency rate represents encouraging news for East Sussex business. Despite the business birth rate being lower than national and regional rates, the low insolvency rate indicates a relatively stable business base, with a comparatively low proportion of businesses in the recession succumbing to economic pressures and being forced to close.
Figure 2.10: Insolvency rates over time
0.40% UK South East East Sussex
0.35%
0.30%
0.25%
0.20%
Insolvancy Rate Insolvancy 0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.00% 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Source: Experian pH Group, August 2010
2.3d Analysis of balance sheet strength provides further evidence of the resilience of East Sussex businesses. The pH Megascore analyses the financial robustness of companies based on particular balance sheet indicators. Companies are assigned a score, which assists analysis of the potential for defaults, and business failures. As such, the higher the average Megascore for a given area, the greater the perceived levels of financial robustness.28
2.3e The South East traditionally enjoyed a higher Megascore than the country as a whole. Since January 2007 however East Sussex’s Megascore has been more closely aligned to, and often in excess of, that of the South East – confirming that in general companies are financially robust. District level data suggests that Wealden, a predominantly rural district, has the lowest Megascore. As the Rural Coalition (2010) document: The rural
27 Quadrant Consultants Ltd in association with BMG Research & East Sussex County Council Strategic Economic Development & Skills Team, 2010 Business Survey, May 2010
28 The Megascore contains up-to-date information on business insolvency rates, financial sheet information, and data on late payment amongst others. This information is taken from the pH Megafile (the UK’s largest business data source).
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challenge, achieving sustainable rural communities for the 21st Century’, suggests there is a need for economic strategy and business support policy to also address the specific needs of businesses in rural areas including those in market towns. Hastings also had one of the lowest Megascores in the County, whereas Eastbourne had the highest.
Figure 2.11: pH Megascore over time
84 UK South East East Sussex 83
82
81
80 pH Megascore
79
78
77 Jul-09 Apr-10 Apr-09 Oct-09 Jun-10 Jun-09 Jan-10 Jan-09 Feb-10 Mar-10 Feb-09 Mar-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 May-10 May-09 Source: Experian pH Group, August 2010 83.5 East Sussex Eastbourne Hastings Lewes Rother Wealden
83.0
82.5 Eastbourne Rother Lewes East Sussex 82.0 Hastings pH Megascore pH
81.5 Wealden
81.0
80.5 Jul-09 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Jan-09 Jun-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Feb-09 Mar-09 Feb-10 Mar-10 Aug-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 May-09 May-10 Source: Experian pH Group, August 2010
2.3f Analysis of payment rates confirms the relative strength of East Sussex – even when compared to the South East economy as a whole. Experian pH data enables analysis of the rate at which businesses pay their invoices. An increase in days beyond terms indicates possible financial struggle. Over recent months firms within sectors including manufacturing, construction as well as distribution, hotels and catering and transport and communications saw slightly lower levels of financial robustness (i.e. a lower Megascore) compared to other sectors in the County.
2.3g Following increases in the delay in payment as the recession took hold, payment beyond agreed terms has stabilised over the last 12 months. This
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decline in the average number of days beyond terms is consistent across the UK and South East, with East Sussex being no exception. This is also consistent with the findings of the business survey which reported that 70% of respondents were satisfied with their cash flow in 2009.29
Figure 2.12: Payments beyond terms (average number of days)
30 UK South East East Sussex
25
20
15
10 Number of days beyond payment terms payment beyond days of Number 5 Jul-09 Apr-10 Apr-09 Oct-09 Jun-10 Jun-09 Jan-10 Jan-09 Feb-10 Mar-10 Feb-09 Mar-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 May-10 May-09
Source: Experian pH Group, August 2010
2.3h However, with the prospects of fiscal tightening in the UK and other European countries, many commentators have as yet not discarded fears of a double dip recession. Following implementation of the Comprehensive Spending Review there will be more clarity on the extent of the planned spending cuts and the potential knock-on effects this could have on private, third sector (and public) sector jobs. In addition, the 2010 and 2011 Business Surveys confirm that cash flow remains an issue for some smaller businesses. Evidence cited in these reports shows that the smaller the business, the greater the likelihood of the business stating they have insufficient cash flow. Reducing orders and borrowing restrictions were cited as the two biggest causes of cash flow issues.
2.4 East Sussex’s unique business landscape: specialisms and future jobs growth
With looming spending cuts private sector job creation and rebalancing the economy is critical. Building on existing assets, East Sussex can exploit a number of specialisms.
2.4a The analysis of the economy section and business sectoral profile showed that East Sussex has the following market sector profile:
29 Quadrant Consultants Ltd in association with BMG Research & East Sussex County Council Strategic Economic Development & Skills Team, 2010 Business Survey, May 2010.
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• The health and social work sector has a large presence and is forecast to continue growing (although forecasts do not incorporate any potential impact of the Comprehensive Spending Review). • The retail, hotels and catering sector, linked to East Sussex’s attractiveness as a tourist destination and the visitor economy, plays an important role in the economy, particularly as a source of jobs, and is expected to grow over the next decade. Focus should be on sustainable growth with higher workforce skills. • Despite being hit hard by the recession, construction remains a key sector for the County’s economy. Projections, mainly based on past performance, suggest this sector would continue to grow over the next decade.30 • With regards to the more high-value added industries, the business and financial services sector has a significant presence in the area, although it lags the regional average. It also has scope to grow with professional services, other business services, computing services and insurance forecast to expand over the next 10 years. • Covering more niche and high value added activities, and currently representing a smaller proportion of the County’s output and employment, advanced manufacturing and engineering also contributes to the County’s economy. Forecasts for this sector suggest future contraction in some sub sectors however.31
2.4b Using employment data and location quotients32 constructed from ABI and from further analysis of Experian’s pH data on businesses, it is possible to provide further details on which sub-sectors and activities are highly concentrated in East Sussex compared to England as a whole. This is important as the potential exists for East Sussex to develop specialities in these sectors.
2.4c Analysis of this data shows that there is number of firms in activities related to health and care (such as hospital activities, residential nursing activities, dental practices and social work activities).
2.4d Further, the County has a higher than average number of organisations and employment in sub-sectors related to tourism and the visitor economy, including specialised retail, entertainment, bars and restaurants.
2.4e Activities related to construction also have a high concentration in the area compared to the average.
2.4f These three sectors, health, tourism, construction, can be overlooked or under- appreciated, but could provide a source of much needed jobs in the future.
30 It is important to stress that forecasts do not incorporate any assumptions on the impact of public sector cuts on the private sector through supply chains. 31 Elec. Eng. & Instrum (-3.4%), Mechanical Engineering (-1.7%) and Electronics (- 1.8%) are all forecast to decline between 2010 and 2020. 32 Location quotients (LQs) provide a measure of concentration of a specific activity or industry. An LQ greater than 1 means a higher concentration of that specific industry relative to the UK average.
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2.4g Finally, a number of firms are concentrated in sectors often considered as performing high value added activities. Within the business services sectors there are a number of firms in real estate activities, advertising, and supply of software. And manufacturing of instruments and appliances for measuring also has a higher than average presence in the County.
Figure 2.13: Detailed sectoral breakdown (employment)33
Hospital activities Retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages… General secondary education Other residential care activities Hotels and similar accommodation Event catering activities Construction of residential and non-residential buildings Residential care activities for the elderly and disabled Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles East Other business support service activities n.e.c. Sussex Social work activities without accommodation for the elderly … General medical practice activities England Operation of sports facilities Other personal service activities n.e.c. Residential nursing care activities Other specialised construction activities n.e.c. Manuf acture of instruments and appliances for measuring, … Compulsory social security activities Hairdressing and other beauty treatment Wholesale of wood, construction materials and sanitary … Other printing Post-secondary non-tertiary education
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Percentage of total employment Source: ABI, 2008
Figure 2.14: East Sussex business base by 4 digits SIC code – Location quotients34
Retail sale of second-hand goods in stores Activities of other membership organisations nec Social work activities with accommodation Management of real estate on a fee or contract basis Artistic and literary creation and interpretation Other human health activities Hotels Advertising Hospital activities Other building completion Real estate agencies Dental practice activities Restaurants Adult and other education nec Erection of roof covering and frames Other software consultancy and supply Social work activities without accommodation Retail sale of furniture, lighting equip. & household articles nec Other retail sale in specialised stores Other entertainment activities not elsewhere classified (nec)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Location quotients -East Sussex businesses Source: Experian pH Group, August 2010
33 This analysis is based on ABI 3 Digit SIC analysis, ABI 2008. Those listed all constitute more than 1.0% of East Sussex’s jobs. A number of other sectors are also prominent – constituting over 0.5% of the workforce. These are: Post-secondary non- tertiary education, Other printing, Wholesale of wood, construction materials and sanitary equipment, Hairdressing and other beauty treatment, Compulsory social security activities, Manufacture of instruments and appliances for measuring, testing and navigation, Other specialised construction activities n.e.c., Residential nursing care activities, Other personal service activities n.e.c, Operation of sports facilities 34 See footnote 37. The only difference is that this chart uses business data instead of employment, showing concentration of businesses in specific sub-sectors.
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2.4h In short, the analysis of the County’s economy and business base has allowed us to identify a number of possible sub-sectoral specialisms unique to East Sussex (detailed analysis is included in Appendix A). These include sectors that can provide a source of much needed jobs, such as health and care of the elderly, tourism and construction. It also includes high-value added niche sectors, that could help boost productivity in the County if further developed. Finance and Business Services, including some sub- sectors within the creative industries (namely artistic and literary creation (although often sole traders), other software consultancy and supply, advertising, architectural and engineering activities), and Advanced Manufacturing and Engineering fall into this category. Finally, environmental technologies and services are expected to develop considerably over the coming years; development in these new technologies and services could occur anywhere in the County to include manufacturing and engineering companies diversifying into this area. With E.ON’s plans for the Rampion off-shore wind farm there is also potential for relevant assembly, operations and maintenance activities to be developed at Newhaven.
Business Support provision in support of business growth 2.4i Business support can be private or publicly provided; the 2011 Annual Business Survey, commissioned by East Sussex County Council, in recognition to intended changes to the delivery of Business Link as the main public sector business support provision, questioned how nationalising and making Business Link mainly web based would affect businesses, if at all. The Survey identified 61% of East Sussex businesses did not use it anyway, 24% said their use would stay the same and only 5% go down, 8% go up. The main types of support (from anywhere) that businesses identified as required were: • Access to relevant business networks 22% • General advice on accessing finance 20% • Marketing advice 20%
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East Sussex LEA Section 3
People and community
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3 People and community
Section 3 – Summary Demography • East Sussex has the highest proportion of elderly residents of any County in England. An increasingly ageing population poses new challenges and opportunities. For example, it puts a strain on financing service delivery. At the same time, with those of a pensionable age becoming increasingly healthier and living longer their demand for goods and services may be greater than that of previous generations. • Black and minority ethnic groups form a lower than average percentage of the population in East Sussex and the County has witnessed relatively lower levels of international immigration. The Labour Market • The unemployment rate in East Sussex is below the national average but above that of the region. However the coastal towns of Hastings and Eastbourne (and some other areas at ward level) have high unemployment rates, with rates above both national and regional averages. • Wages are lower than both regional and national averages in East Sussex – not a situation forecast to change – therefore some workers commute out of the County perhaps specifically to access higher paid roles. Further, some workers may choose to live in East Sussex because it offers cheaper housing than other places in the South East. • Levels of vocational attainment in the County lag the national and regional average particularly with regards to the higher end of skills (Levels 3 and 4). Hastings and Rother in particular lag regional and national averages for Level 4 qualifications. Further the proportion of 16-18 year-olds classified as NEET35 is high relative to neighbouring areas, most notably in Hastings. Well-being • The picture of wellbeing in the County is mixed, but areas of high deprivation are evident, particularly in coastal areas such as Hastings in particular and Eastbourne, but also elsewhere for example in parts of Rother (e.g. Bexhill). This is evidenced by a high numbers of adults relying on benefits in the case of the former two, and pockets of high deprivation and low incomes in other areas. • It is important to note the link between worklessness and disability. Employment Support Assistance/ Incapacity Benefit claimants (ESA/IB) make up a high proportion of out of work claimants. These claimants tend to be concentrated in Eastbourne and Hastings and have an older age profile than the general population. Mental health is a key driver behind ESA/IB claims.
35 NEET stands for people Not in Education, Employment, or Training.
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3.1 Demography
East Sussex is a truly diverse county, with urban centres, coastal and market towns and rural areas
3.1a East Sussex has a population of just over 512,000, making up 6% of National dementia the South East’s total population. Wealden is the largest district, with costs are expected to 144,000 people or just over a quarter of the County’s population, followed by Eastbourne (96,400), Lewes (96,400), Hastings (86,900) and Rother rise from £14.9bn in (89,200)36. 2007 to £34.8bn by 2026. East Sussex Figure 3.1: Population estimates, 2009 has the highest Population % of East Sussex total proportion of elderly Eastbourne 96,421 18.8 Hastings residents of any 86,928 17.0 Lewes 96,429 18.8 county in England. Rother 89,222 17.4 Wealden 143,088 27.9 Source: ONS (2009) Mid year Estimates via East Sussex in Figures (ESIF) Econometrics, Local Economic Forecasting Model, 2010
The population is expected to increase moderately over the next 15 years, but will age considerably
3.1b Elderly people make up a significant percentage of the population, with one in four residents being over pensionable age (at 65 for men and 60 for women). Even though this proportion has fallen from 29% in 1981 to around 27% today, East Sussex still has the highest percentage of elderly residents of any county in England (including the two categories of over 85 and over 90 years old).
3.1c Latest projections (estimates of future change) suggest that the county’s population is likely to increase to around 521,500 by 2026. Population growth in the future will be more concentrated among people in the older age groups from age 50 and above. This is because an increased numbers of people born after WW2 (often called ‘baby boomers’) will reach retirement age. Most of the younger age groups are likely to decrease over the next 20 years.37
3.1d An ageing population raises both challenges and opportunities. There will be a larger population of elderly people (and a higher proportion of the total population) requiring care and leisure services, the former putting additional strains on public finance and service delivery. Further, meeting the ‘replacement rates’ and the required skills for many jobs as the workforce retires and the working age workforce becomes smaller could become a challenge. On the other hand, some of those of a pensionable age are
36 ONS (2009) Mid Year Estimates 37 Demographic projections…in brief (April 2011), ESiF
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becoming increasingly healthier and living longer meaning their demand for goods and services – often in their local area because of mobility and security issues – will be greater than that of previous generations. It is however important to caveat this statement; some of those of pensionable age, particularly in more deprived areas, will not necessarily follow this trend.
3.1e That said, reduced mortality and morbidity rates and changes in attitudes and needs will potentially make it attractive to extend work opportunities for the 65-74s, reducing, to some extent, a potential gap in the workforce (public sector job cuts aside).38 At the national level, proportionately fewer working-age people needing to support a larger older retired population will put pressure on funding future pensions. Although the age profile is broadly similar across the County, there is a relatively higher number of elderly people in Rother and younger age groups in Hastings.
Figure 3.2: Population estimates as a proportion of total, 2009 0-15 16-29 30-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Eastbourne 17.2 16.8 18 24.9 10.1 8.7 4.3 Hastings 19.3 16.7 19.5 26.9 8.9 5.8 2.9 Lewes 17.3 13.4 17.1 28.6 11.1 8.3 4 Rother 16.2 11.5 14.5 29.3 13.6 10.1 4.9 Wealden 18.3 11.7 17 29.9 11.8 7.9 3.5 East Sussex 17.7 13.8 17.2 28.1 11.1 8.1 3.9 South East 19 17.4 20.7 26 8.7 5.8 2.5 Great Britain 18.8 18.7 20.9 25.3 8.5 5.6 2.2 Source: ONS (2009) Mid Year Estimates via East Sussex in Figures (ESIF)
The socio-economic make-up of the population varies considerably across different parts of the County
3.1f Experian’s ‘Mosaic Segmentation tool’ allows us to look at population make up in a slightly different way via socio demographic segmentation represented at Figure 3.3
3.1g Residents of Isolated rural communities and of Small and mid-sized towns with local roots (Groups A and B – detailed definitions included in Appendix A) are highly represented in Wealden, Lewes and Rother.
3.1h Group A contains people who live in small villages or in isolated farmhouses and cottages where farming and tourism are the mainstays of the local economy. These are places where residents still value a traditional country ‘way of life’ characterised by a strong community spirit and a sense of responsibility towards one’s neighbours.
38 UKCES (2010) Skills for Jobs: Today and Tomorrow, UKCES: London.
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3.1i Group B contains residents who mostly live in medium sized and smaller towns in neighbourhoods of older housing where there is relatively little turnover from year to year. Though these people are more likely than most to be in their retirement years, the Group is quite diverse in terms of age distribution and type of household. Though some people are quite well off and others have to be careful to make ends meet, this is not a Group where you are likely to find people at either extreme of the income distribution. A significant number are self-employed.
3.1j Group D contains swathes of Britain’s executive and managerial classes who have worked to build up a comfortable lifestyle and a significant, though seldom exceptional, financial asset base. Often in their 40s, 50s or 60s, some of them may be owners of small or medium sized businesses whilst others will have risen to senior positions in large national or international companies. They are people who are likely to have built up significant equity in their own homes. With significant incomes from their investments as well as from employment, most of these people pay tax at a higher rate.
3.1k Active elderly people (Group L) have a higher than average presence in the County, particularly in coastal towns. Group L mostly contains people aged over 65 whose children have grown up. On retirement they may have decided to uproot themselves from their family home in favour of life in a retirement community among people of broadly similar ages, incomes and social attitudes as themselves. A number of these people, their mortgages paid off, will have sold a detached or semi-detached house from which they might have commuted to a well paid city centre job, and used the proceeds to purchase a smaller property closer to the sea in a place they have got to know, for example through holidaying locally.
3.1l Some deprived groups, including O – Families in low-rise social housing with high levels of benefit need – have a high concentration in Hastings (8.1% against 5.8% in the UK). Hastings also has L – lower income workers in urban terraces in often diverse areas.
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Figure 3.3: Socio-demographic segmentation, 2010
Source Experian 2010
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3.1m Black and minority ethnic groups have lower than average representation in East Sussex and the County has witnessed relatively lower levels of international immigration.
3.1n With regards to ethnic composition, the County is less diverse than the region and the country, with only 6.4% of the population of mixed/non white origin, compared to 12.5% nationally and 9.3% regionally (figure 3.4). There are, however, more Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) groups living around the County’s more urban centres of Eastbourne and Hastings.
Figure 3.4: Ethnicity of the local population in 2009 (000’s) ‘Mixed ‘White’ All persons race/non white’ % % Eastbourne 96,400 92.5 7.5 Hastings 86,900 91.3 8.7 Lewes 96,400 94.7 5.3 Rother 89,200 94.3 5.7 Wealden 143,100 94.6 5.4 East Sussex 512,100 93.6 6.4 South East 8,435,700 90.7 9.3 England 51,809,700 87.5 12.5
3.1o Further, 2009 figures sourced from the National Insurance Numbers39 allocated to overseas workers show that migrants represent a very small proportion of the County’s population (0.5%) and the of total migrant workers in the South East at 3.5%.
3.1p Using ‘Mosaic Origins’ it is possible to get a more detailed breakdown of the ethnic profile of East Sussex.40 The vast majority of the population are British (91.5%); 76.0% English, 11.2% Celtic and 4.3% Irish. A small minority are from other European countries.
39 DWP, NINO, 2009. 40 Mosaic Origins is a variable that classifies people according to the part of the world their forebears are most likely to have originated. It is available in aggregated form and at person level.
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Figure 3.5: Ethnicity – ‘Mosaic Origins’ 2008
Mosaic Origins Types 90%
80% 76.0%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 11.2% 10% 4.3% 3.0% 2.9% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0%
Source:Experian, Mosaic Origins
3.2 The labour market
3.2.1 Employment/Unemployment rate and earnings
Unemployment 3.2.1a The unemployment rate in East Sussex is below the national average but above that of the region, with the coastal districts of Eastbourne and, in particular Hastings, underperforming compared to the rural districts.
3.2.1b The labour market plays a key role in supporting the economy, although the relationship clearly works both ways: “Businesses and economies cannot improve their efficiency and competitiveness without a good supply of motivated labour with the right skills or the ability to develop those skills. Individuals cannot apply the skills that they have developed to the labour market if there are insufficient appropriate local jobs”.41
3.2.1c Whilst the employment rate for the County in 2009 is just below the regional average (76.7% and 77.5% respectively), there is substantial variation across each of the districts within East Sussex. Whereas Wealden’s employment rate (81.4%) is higher than that for the South East (77.5%), Eastbourne and Hastings posted the lowest employment rates in the County (74.0% and 74.1% respectively).42
3.2.1d The 2010 unemployment rate in East Sussex (6.2%) is slightly higher than the regional average of 6%, although it is well below the average for Great Britain (7.7%). Eastbourne (6.9%) and Hastings (9.9%) in particular have high unemployment rates and the figures have suffered as a result of the recession43.
41 East Sussex Adult Learning and Skills Partnership Board (2010); Interim East Sussex Work & Skills Plan. 42 This refers to Annual Population Survey data from Oct 2008/Sep 2009 sourced from East Sussex in Figures. 43 ONS (2009) Model-based unemployment estimates
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Figure 3.6: ILO rate of unemployment; 2005-2010
12
10
8 Great Britain South East East Sussex Eastbourne 6 Hastings Lewes Rother 4 ILO uneployment rate uneployment ILO Wealden
2
0 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10
Note: ILO is the International Labour Organisation; the figures are used for international comparison by the EU
Benefit claims 3.2.1e As the recession hit and businesses closed or shed jobs to reduce costs, the number of benefit claimants naturally rose across the entire country. Across Great Britain, the proportion of the working-age population claiming out of work benefits rose from 11% in May 2008 to 12.4% by May 2010 –up 1.4 percentage points. Similarly, in East Sussex the proportion of the working-age population claiming benefits rose by 1.5 percentage points over the same period.
3.2.1f In May 2010, nearly a fifth of the working age population in Hastings were claiming out of work benefits – 11 percentage points higher than regionally. This compares with a rate of just 6.8% in Wealden; historically the district has had low levels of benefit claimants.
3.2.1g In terms of rural market towns the following gives some indication of JSA claimant rates (April 2011): Lewes Town (2.8%); Rye (3.3%); Hailsham (2.6%); Polegate (2.1%). Within these towns some individual wards are high, for example Hailsham East (4.6%), Lewes Castle (3.9%), highlighting issues of unemployment within some rural towns.
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Figure 3.7: Proportion of working-age population claiming benefits, 2005-2010
25
20 Great Britain South East East Sussex Eastbourne 15 Hastings Lewes Rother Wealden 10 % working% claiming age out of workbenefits
5
5 6 7 7 8 9 9 0 -0 -05 05 -06 -06 0 -0 -07 -0 -08 08 -0 -09 0 -10 v- b y g- b v-0 v- b y g- e a e e a u May Aug No F M Au Nov-06F May Aug-07No Feb-08May Aug No F M A Nov-09Feb-1May
3.2.1h Looking ahead, we are able to forecast the risk of unemployment in the County using Experian’s Mosaic Economics model. This provides an unemployment rate – derived using unemployment rates by age, gender, race and qualifications from the Labour Force Survey, as well as regional International Labour Organisation unemployment rates – for working-age adults. These are placed within each of the Mosaic Public Sector segments44 and then weighted by the prevalence of each of these segments within the relevant region, county or district.
3.2.1i The unemployment risk index indicates that workers in East Sussex are less likely to be unemployed – than in the South East as a whole – in the short to medium-term. The risk of unemployment is however expected to rise markedly through 2010 into 2012 as public sector job cuts bite. Employees in Rother and Wealden appear to be the least threatened by unemployment over the forecast period, with the risk index illustrated below indicating a risk of below the County average until 2015. Conversely, in Hastings and Eastbourne, the unemployment risk is above the regional average in 2012 and is forecast to remain there until at least 2015.
Earnings 3.2.1j In respect of wages earned in East Sussex, they are lower than both regional and national averages in East Sussex – not a situation forecast to change; so some workers may commute out of the County to access higher paid roles.
3.2.1k Earnings are often used as an indication of productivity and the skills of the workforce.45 However, the fact that there are often significant
44 Mosaic segments are detailed in the Appendix. 45 Variables such as earnings are often expressed as either a residence-based or workplace-based proportions. Residence-based proportions express the number of
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differences in the cost of living in different areas also needs to be considered when comparing gross wages across different areas. Average median earnings for full-time jobs based in East Sussex (shown in figure 3.8 below) are lower than the national and regional averages, suggesting that there is a higher proportion of low-value jobs performed in the County.
3.2.1l Lewes enjoys the highest average work-place earnings for all employees. This can be attributed to a high proportion of people working as managers and senior officials and in professional occupations. Rother has the lowest average full time work-place earnings. This is due to the fact that the area has a high concentration of three occupational roles that traditionally do not generate high wages; these include administrative and secretarial, personal service occupations and skilled trades.
Figure 3.8: Average median weekly earnings (gross) work-place based in 2010 All employees Full-time All people Male Female All people Male Female Great Britain 406 499 317 500 540 440 South East 419 536 317 524 575 444 East Sussex 340 436 278 450 489 403 Eastbourne 353 456 314 495 518 447 Hastings 340 412 283 413 488 394 Lewes 368 422 301 459 490 415 Rother 330 395 261 401 446 386 Wealden 307 449 191 452 479 374 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (2010)
3.2.1m A look at residence-based wages (below) in East Sussex shows that Wealden’s residents earn the most (£575 per week) full time, whilst full time employees living in Hastings earn the lowest average weekly earnings (£407 per week) by residence.
claimants resident in an area as a percentage of the population aged 16-64 resident in that area. Workplace-based rates are calculated by expressing the number of people who are resident in each area as a percentage of workforce jobs. Workforce jobs are the sum of employee jobs; self-employment jobs; Her Majesty`s Forces; government-supported trainees.
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Figure 3.9: Average median weekly earnings (gross) residence-based in 2010 All employees Full-time All people Male Female All people Male Female Great Britain 407 500 317 502 542 440 South East 440 564 326 548 605 461 East Sussex 388 495 300 504 550 433 Eastbourne 362 459 314 492 538 436 Hastings 368 387 317 407 457 397 Lewes 413 508 305 514 553 456 Rother 343 485 234 488 551 431 Wealden 424 575 256 575 645 470 Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Office for National Statistics
3.2.1n The average resident-based earnings are noticeably higher than the average median workplace-based earnings in Lewes, Rother and Wealden. This is partly explained by higher levels of out-commuting to London and other areas outside the county.
Commuting 3.2.1o Analysis of commuting flows indicates that 22% of East Sussex residents commute to jobs outside of East Sussex, although this rises to 36% in Lewes and 28% in Wealden.
3.2.1p London is a big draw for residents of East Sussex – particularly from Wealden (6.9%) and Rother (5.5%) – and accounts for over 10,000 of the County’s workers. However, neighbouring Brighton also attracts over 10,000 workers, with over 7,000 (or 18.6%) coming from Lewes. Tunbridge Wells attracts almost 7,000 East Sussex residents, with over 4,000 coming from Wealden.
3.2.1q Further analysis of the commuting flows (see Appendix A.1) shows that some sub areas within the county have a stronger reliance on each other than other areas, the main example being 13.8% commute from Hastings to Rother, and 14.6% commute from Rother to Hastings. This higher degree of economic interdependency is recognised through the setting up of the Hastings and Bexhill Task Force and the development company ‘Hastings and Bexhill Renaissance Ltd’ (trading as SeaSpace). The Lewes - Brighton relationship is even stronger however with 18.5% commuting to Brighton and Hove to work. In terms of overall non reliance on external areas for work (i.e. working in the administrative area where they live) Eastbourne at 73% and Hastings at 70.5% are the highest, with all other areas being below 60%. (2001 Census checked by Annual Population Survey 2010 ONS).
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Figure 3.10: Commuting flows of local residents within and outside of the County
100% 11 10 18 90% 22 28 36 80%
70%
60%
50% 89 90
40% Within County, 78 82 72 64 30%
20%
10% Residents commuting within/out of East East Sussex (%) of within/out commuting Residents 0%
Source: Census (2001) checked by APS commuting flows (2010) )
Changes to income 3.2.1r In terms of income earned this is unlikely to change, at least in the short-term. Forecasts produced by Experian’s Mosaic Economics model suggest that average household disposable income (HHDI) in East Sussex will increase by less than the regional average over the next five years. Indeed the differential in average income between the region and County in 2015 is expected to have climbed by an additional 2% from 17% (2008 levels) to 19% (2015).
3.2.1s Wealden is expected to perform most strongly over the forecast period, with Lewes catching up somewhat by 2015. HHDI is lowest in Hastings at present and this is not expected to change by 2015.
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Figure 3.11: Forecasting changes in average household disposable income, 2010-2015
Source: Experian (2010)
Source: Experian (2010)
3.2.2 The supply side: the skills of the workforce
Levels of educational attainment in the County lag the regional average, particularly in Hastings and Rother; the proportion of 16-18 year-olds classified as NEET46 is high, particularly in Hastings.
46 NEET is an acronym for the government classification for people Not in Education, Employment, or Training.
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3.2.2a Levels of educational attainment in East Sussex lag behind the regional and national averages. At school level, 69% in East Sussex passed Key Stage 2 in 2009, slightly below the pass rate of 72% observed in neighbouring West Sussex and England as a whole. At GCSE-level, the County matched the national average with 51% of students achieving at least five grades A*-C in 2009, up from just 43% in 2007.
3.2.2b 77% of students achieved at least NVQ level 2 or equivalent in the County in 2009, compared with 76% in Kent and 79% in West Sussex and England as a whole. 48% achieved at least level 3, but this was below the rates observed in Kent (49%), England (51%) and West Sussex (53%).
3.2.2c Further, a relatively high proportion of 16-18 year olds are classified as NEET, that is, not in education, employment or training. East Sussex actually performs well in comparison with the national average, as just 7.3% of 16-18 year-olds are classified as NEET, compared with 9.2% nationally. However, levels of NEET in neighbouring Kent (4.9%) and West Sussex (5.9%) are much lower, whilst the regional average stands at just 5.8%.
3.2.2d At the district level, Hastings has the highest proportion of NEET 16- 18 year olds at 10.3% – although this has fallen from 11.0% in 2008 – and is the only district above the national average on this measure. Rother has seen the greatest decline in NEETs since 2008; from 8.9% to 7.0% today.
Figure 3.12: Proportion of 16-18 year-olds not in education, employment or training (NEET)
12.0 11.0 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 10.4 10.3 10.0 UK 8.9 average 8.2 (2009) 8.0 7.7 7.3 East 7.0 7.0 6.5 Sussex 6.2 average 6.0 5.8
3.8 4.0 3.5 3.6
2.0 Proportion of NEET 16-18 year year olds NEET 16-18 of Proportion
0.0 Wealden Lewes Rother Eastbourne Hastings Source: DCSF (2008-9)
3.2.2e Obviously some significant work is underway as regards improving the educational attainment in the County, especially in those districts with the highest reported level of NEETs. The new Eastbourne Academy opened in September 2010, whilst two new academies in Hastings were given initial approval in March 2010. In addition, the University Centre Hastings is now fully functional and additional places to meet demand are being provided under ‘UCH 2’. It is important to address skills gaps, ensure that young
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people aspire to achieving skills and that the skills meet the needs of local employers in particular.
3.2.2f There is potential to raise the skills of the workforce and productivity in the County.
3.2.2g Workforce skills have long been recognised in economic The County still lags development terms as an important determinant of productivity. The County still lags the South East on the higher Level 3 and 4 qualifications. Thus, the South East on there is certainly potential to improve the skills of the workforce at both ends Level 3 and 4 of the skills range. qualifications. 3.2.2h Whilst just under a third of working age residents in Eastbourne (30%), Wealden (30%) and Lewes (31%) have Level 4 or equivalent qualifications, the proportion of highly qualified working age residents in Hastings (24%) and Rother (24%) is well below the regional and national averages. In addition both these districts have a much higher proportion of working age residents that do not have a Level 2 qualification. These people are likely to find it difficult to compete in an increasingly competitive labour market. Across the County, particularly in deprived areas, too many local young people and adults lack the necessary skills and aspirations to build positive futures.
Figure 3.13: Level of NVQ-equivalent qualifications (Jan 2008 – Dec 2008)47 Below L2 At least L2 At least L3 At least L4 Eastbourne 29% 71% 51% 30% Hastings 33% 67% 49% 24% Lewes 27% 73% 48% 31% Rother 33% 67% 47% 24% Wealden 27% 73% 50% 30% East Sussex 29% 71% 49% 28% South East 27% 73% 54% 34% England 31% 69% 50% 31% Source: APS (2008)
3.2.2i Findings from the East Sussex Business Survey 2010 are consistent with the trends described above. In Rother, where residents tend to have lower levels of qualifications than most other parts of the county, businesses highlighted this as an issue. Interestingly, whilst figures on qualifications show that Wealden’s residents are highly qualified, this was not reflected in businesses’ answers in terms of access to higher skills; this may be explained by the fact that many of the more highly skilled residents in the area commute out of the district to work.
47 % of working age population (19-64 males: 19-59 females)
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3.2.3 The demand side: vacancies and future need
Job density in the County is well below regional and national averages, indicating a lack of employment opportunities. This is most notable in Hastings
3.2.2j On the demand side, it is apparent that East Sussex is lacking in employment opportunities. Job density, as measured by the ratio of jobs to the resident working-age population, is well below the regional and national averages. A job density of 0.72 was observed in the County in 2009, meaning that for every 100 people of working-age, there were 72 jobs available; job density in both the South East (0.80) and across UK (0.77) was much higher.
3.2.2k At the district-level, job density in Hastings fell to just 0.62 in 2009, down from 0.71 24 months previously. Eastbourne performs best on the measure; its job density of 0.8 is above the regional and national averages.
Figure 3.14: Job density: Ratio of jobs to resident working-age population; 2000 and 2009
0.9 2000 2009
0.85
0.8
0.75
0.7
0.65
Ratioto of jobsthe resident working-age population 0.6 United South East East Eastbourne Hastings Lewes Rother Wealden Kingdom Sussex
Occupation forecasts and evidence from the business survey suggests skill gaps remain on the high end of the skills range.
3.2.2l The East Sussex Business Survey 2010 has found that the main reason for local companies not being able to recruit to hard-to-fill vacancies is a shortage of skilled applicants (identified as the main barrier by 35% of businesses facing this problem).48
3.2.2m Whilst over three quarters of businesses reported that they felt their staff were all fully proficient (77%), almost 1 in 10 felt ‘the majority’ needed to improve their skills if they were to carry out their jobs properly, with 14% stating ‘only a few’ needed to improve their skills. The number of
48 Caveat: based on 25 businesses that had hard-to-fill vacancies.
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businesses reporting their staff as fully proficient has risen by almost 10 percentage points since 2008 (68%).49
3.2.2n According to the East Sussex Business Survey 2010 the most skill- proficient sectors reported were construction (86%) and retail (85%) sectors, with the least proficient reported being the hotels/restaurants (72%), financial/real estate (74%) and education/health (75%) sectors. The regeneration areas of Bexhill and Newhaven scored significantly higher than the average for East Sussex for reported skills proficiency levels, at 87% and 90% respectively.50
3.2.2o The ‘least proficient’ sectors reported above are all potential growth sectors and as such they will need the appropriate skills both to enable growth to happen and to maintain and increase it.
Workforce skills will need to improve significantly over the next decade to match demand.
3.2.2p Over one fifth of workers (22%) reported having received training in the past 13 weeks, with a further 12% receiving training in the preceding four weeks. Both figures are above both regional and national averages. Indeed, reasonably high levels of training are observed in all districts except Wealden; 23% or more of workers in Eastbourne, Lewes, Hastings and Rother received training in the past 13 weeks. Caution needs to be used however in relation to the definition of ‘training’ as this could significantly differ company to company and also in relation to type (e.g. ‘mandatory’ as in health and safety, as opposed to discretional). The level of investment however remains very low. In fact, according to the 2008 East Sussex Annual Business Survey local business’ commitment to training is weak by national standards with only 56% of all businesses having funded or arranged training in the last 12 months.
49 Quadrant Consultants Ltd in association with BMG Research & East Sussex County Council Strategic Economic Development & Skills Team, 2010 Business Survey, May 2010 50 Quadrant Consultants Ltd in association with BMG Research & East Sussex County Council Strategic Economic Development & Skills Team, 2010 Business Survey, May 2010
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Figure 3.15: Proportion of workers in receipt of training over past 4/13 weeks; Jan-Dec 2009
4 weeks 13 weeks 25 24 23 23 23 22 20 20 19 19 18
15 14 13 13 12 12 10 10 10 10 9
5 Proportion of workers in receipt of of training in receipt workers of Proportion
0
Source: APS (2009)
The demand for qualifications has risen faster than employment in recent times as the UK moved towards knowledge based sectors, a trend which is expected to continue. See foot note 51
3.2.2q An increase in mechanisation and the rise of low cost bases in emerging markets has led the developed world increasingly away from manual jobs, towards the so-called ‘knowledge-based’ economy. A general trend towards office-based ‘knowledge’ jobs, as developed economies became service economies, has created greater demand for more highly skilled labour.
3.2.2r Over the past couple of decades, East Sussex has been no exception, with employer demand for qualifications increasing at a faster pace than total employment growth. This trend is expected to continue. Even during the recent recession in 2008-09, when total employment in East Sussex declined, demand for high skilled labour is estimated to have weathered the economic downturn better than that for lower skilled labour. This is supported by recent Annual Population Survey workplace-based data for East Sussex, which show that employment in higher level occupations rose in the two years to September 2009, while employment in lower level occupations fell. This indicates that jobs that demand medium and lower level qualifications could be less resilient in times of economic difficulties and job cuts are more probable than for high level skilled employment.
3.2.2s In the short term, the demand for lower qualifications is projected to decline reflecting further job losses in sectors such as agriculture, some manufacturing sub sectors and construction (Cambridge Econometrics 2010). It is important to note that these forecasts do not take into account
51 This term refers to sectors associated with the ‘knowledge based economy’ - an expression coined to describe economies which are directly based on the production, distribution and use of knowledge and information. Such sectors include computer related activities, and other business activities such as advertising. For more information see: OECD (1996) The Knowledge Based Economy, OECD: Paris.
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the impact of the Comprehensive Spending Review on reduced public sector spend and job losses. Meanwhile employment requiring Level 3 qualifications remains stable. In contrast, employment requiring high level qualifications (Level 4+) is set to increase in East Sussex in the short-term by 0.5% per annum as employment in financial and business services begins to recover.
3.2.2t In the longer term – over the next decade – employment is projected to increase by around 8% in East Sussex (0.7% annual average growth), which is expected to have a positive effect on demand for people with all levels of qualifications. Economic growth will continue to provide job opportunities for those with both high skills levels and, to a lesser extent, lower level skills. By 2020 the majority (51.2%) of jobs will be in high skills occupations (level 3 and above); employment levels for workers qualified at level 3 are forecast to increase by 7.8% between 2010 and 2020, demand for the highest skilled workers (level 4+) are expected to increase by 13.0%.
3.2.2u At the district-level, Rother is expected to need the most highly-skilled workers, with demand for those qualified to level 4 and above forecast to climb by over 14% over the next decade. Eastbourne (13.8%) and Wealden (13.7%) are also expected to see big increases in demand for the most highly-qualified workers. 52
Figure 3.16: Projected increased demand for qualifications over next decade; 2010-2053
Level 3 Level 4+ 16% 13.7% 13.8% 14.1% 14% 13.0% 11.9% 12% 11.0%
10% 9.0% 7.7% 7.8% 7.8% 8.2% 8%
5.9% 6%
4%
Projected increase in demand 2010-20 demand in increase Projected 2%
0%
Source: ONS, IER and Cambridge Econometrics
52 This is based on the occupational profile of those sectors expected to grow in each of the districts. 53 These forecasts do not take into account the Comprehensive Spending Review. For more information on the forecast data, please refer to Appendix A
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3.3 Well-being & Community
3.3.1 Deprivation and poverty
3.3.1a The East Sussex Residents’ Survey for 2008/9 (latest) showed, in respect of the level of satisfaction with the local area (2008/9), that 56.8% of people in East Sussex were ‘fairly satisfied’; the highest level of ‘fairly satisfied’, at 60.4%, was in Hastings, the lowest, at 53.4% in Rother. The survey gives a broad indication of ‘well being’ in relation to place, however the picture of wellbeing in the County is mixed in terms of formal individual indicators with evidence of areas of poverty and deprivation particularly in the coastal towns with correspondingly high numbers of adults relying on benefits.
3.3.1b As discussed in Section 3.1, about 12% of the working age population was out of work in 2009 with about 4,500 more claimants than there had been four years earlier. This increase in out of work benefit claimants is almost entirely due to a higher number of Jobseekers Allowance claimants (JSA); Hastings and Eastbourne recorded the highest claimant rates in the County in 2009. Despite the increase in JSA claimants, the major driver of out of work benefit claims is Employment Support Assistance/ Incapacity Benefit claimants (ESA/IB). This group accounted for 63% of all claimants in 2005, and although it fell to just 53% by 2009 it still represents more than half of those claiming out of work benefits. 54
3.3.1c Most of those claiming IB/SDA benefits live in Hastings or Eastbourne and are concentrated in older age groups (particularly 45-64). Mental health is a key driver of IB/SDA benefit take-up in all the districts in East Sussex.
3.3.1d There are links between worklessness and disability. Estimates suggest there are 56,500 working age residents in East Sussex who have a disability (about one in five)55. Further, economic inactivity rates amongst people with a disability are much higher than amongst those without a disability. In 2009, 34% (19,000) of working age people in East Sussex with a disability were economically inactive, compared with just 15% of working age people without a disability. People with a disability are also more likely to be unemployed (7% compared with 5% to those without a disability).
3.3.1e Worklessness, well-being and deprivation are often highly localised phenomena and there exists substantial diversity within East Sussex. Indeed, the County is home to some of the most and least deprived communities, as identified by the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). 42 areas of the county are amongst the 20% most deprived in the South East. The relative affluence of many rural areas hides real pockets of deprivation.
54 Lone parents accounted 14% of all claimants in 2009 and JSA for about 26%.
55 East Sussex Adult Learning and Skills Partnership Board (2010), Interim East Sussex Work & Skills Plan.
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3.3.1f In particular, there are concentrations of some of the most deprived communities in the County in Hastings, Eastbourne and Rother (particularly Bexhill, Rye) and to a lesser extent in Wealden (Hailsham). In contrast, large parts of East Sussex particularly in Wealden and northern parts of Lewes are home to some of the least deprived communities.
3.3.1.g The picture painted by the IMD is supported by analysis of the proportion of households in East Sussex defined as ‘low-income’, that is those households with incomes of less than 60% of the UK median. Mapping this by ward indicates that coastal areas are particularly poor, with areas of poverty particularly apparent in Hastings, Eastbourne, Rother (Bexhill, Rye) and Wealden (Hailsham). Conversely, a much smaller proportion of households fall below the low-income threshold in the northern and western areas of the county.
Figure 3.17: Patterns of deprivation in East Sussex
D ec i l es of IMD (England) Mo st deprived 10%
Le ast deprived 10% W ard boundary D is trict boundary
Source: Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2007
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Figure 3.18: Proportion of families with incomes below 60% of the national average; 2010
Proportion of familes below 60% income by ward 2009
Income below 60% 7 - 16 17 - 22 23 - 27 28 - 37 (c) Crown copyright. All rights reserved. District boundaries 100019601, 2010.
Source: CACI, 2010.
3.3.2 Child Poverty
3.3.2a The Government set out its vision for reducing child poverty winter 2010; it recognises the best way to eradicate child poverty is to address the causes of poverty, rather than only treat the symptoms.
3.3.2b The Figure below shows the number of children in East Sussex by District that are identified as suffering from child poverty (see child poverty criteria in the dataset).
Figure: Total Number of Children in Poverty 2006 & 2008 Year 2006 2008 All of All of All Lone which All Lone which Family type families Couple parent IS/JSA families Couple parent IS/JSA Geography England 2,298,380 745,000 1,553,380 1,743,825 2,341,975 745,195 1,596,780 1,788,195 South East 255,480 73,390 182,090 189,445 260,920 73,020 187,900 193,490 East Sussex 17,610 5,310 12,300 12,895 18,275 5,540 12,740 13,435
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Eastbourne 4,015 1,205 2,810 2,995 4,010 1,220 2,790 3,020 Hastings 5,315 1,590 3,725 4,275 5,505 1,665 3,840 4,510 Lewes 2,620 685 1,935 1,915 2,700 775 1,925 1,905 Rother 2,720 890 1,830 1,890 3,005 935 2,065 2,135 Wealden 2,935 935 2,000 1,815 3,055 945 2,115 1,860 Source: HM Revenue and Customs via ESIF. Description: This dataset shows the number and percentage of children living in poverty by family type. In this table children in poverty are defined as those who are living in families who are in receipt of Child Tax Credit (CTC) whose reported income is less than 60% of median income, or who are in receipt of Income Support (IS) or income-based Jobseekers Allowance (JSA). IS is Income Support; JSA is Job Seekers Allowance.
3.3.2c The percentage of children in poverty in East Sussex for all family types (17.7%) is higher the regional (14.5%) but lower than national average (20.9%). Hastings (28.8%) and Eastbourne (21.2%) have the highest proportions of child poverty, while Rother also has levels above the county average at 18.2%.
3.3.2d The Government suggests that the evidence available indicates that simply increasing household income, though reducing income poverty, will not make a big difference to children's life chances. Additional factors therefore need to be considered including the home and family environment, early years and education, health, and support and advice around training and work.
3.3.2e The Government therefore sees a raft of activities of importance in tackling child poverty; of particular relevance to the LEA are:
• handing back greater control to local communities by providing them with the powers, tools and information to determine and address local priorities and drive forward regeneration and local growth;
• the introduction of Community Budgets to enable a more cost- effective approach to delivery by organising public spending by place rather than by individual organisations or service;
• narrowing educational attainment gaps;
• promoting a strong economy and job creation, including removing the barriers to economic growth and working with employers to create more flexibility in working practices to expand the quantity and quality of job opportunities available to parents (and carers);
• reform of skills and lifelong learning to create a much more responsive system so that people have the help and information needed;
• housing reform to devolve power to local authorities and communities and stimulate increased private sector investment; considering ways to make sure that social housing is allocated where it is most needed.
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East Sussex LEA Section 4
Place
Source: CACI
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4 Place
Section 4 – Summary
• With a combination of heritage, culture and natural environment East Sussex provides a potentially attractive offer for visitors, residents and business, the new South Downs National Park offers a new Road and rail links in brand in the county that will give added leisure and tourism the County are opportunities. poorly connected • Road and rail links in the County are poorly connected and often congested, impacting on its attractiveness as a place to live, work or and often congested, visit. However, the County is lobbying, working with the rail industry impacting on its and in partnership with other stakeholders to secure improvements to address transport connectivity. attractiveness as a • There remains a shortfall of house builds in the County and there place to live, work or are issues of affordability, housing list numbers and homes deemed visit. unfit for habitation. • Employment land is relatively cheap in East Sussex, but many businesses are not satisfied with the quality/quantity of business accommodation. • With 12% of businesses currently seeking new or additional accommodation, this produces an estimate of around 2,000 jobs that could be created if these businesses are able to find suitable accommodation locally. • Residents of East Sussex are relatively less likely to have access to the internet, whilst large tranches are not served by a broadband connection. • The County’s carbon footprint is relatively low, the green economy represents an opportunity for growth, but businesses are slow to implement green policies and initiatives and access advice.
In this section, we look at the assets and weaknesses of East Sussex as a place; that is the residential and business accommodation available, the prevalence and quality of transport and ICT infrastructure and the environmental sustainability of the economy. This will provide a clear indication of how the County is positioned in terms of attracting residents, visitors and businesses to the area, and to its preparedness for the transition to a low carbon economy.
4.1 Heritage and natural assets
A combination of heritage, culture and natural environment provide an attractive offer for visitors, residents and businesses.
4.1a East Sussex has significant assets in terms of its heritage, culture and natural environment, which should provide a huge draw to both domestic
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and international tourists. Almost two-thirds of East Sussex has been designated as Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB) in either the High Weald or the South Downs National Park (SDNP).56 The County Council as a whole has a statutory duty to have regard to the High Weald AONB and the SDNP therefore all relevant plans and strategies produced by the County Council will need to be considered in this context. Local authorities also have a duty to publish and review AONB management plans every five years, in East Sussex this responsibility has been assisted by the High Weald Joint Advisory Committee (High Weald AONB) and delegated to the South Downs Joint Committee, (Sussex Downs & East Hampshire AONBs).
4.1b East Sussex also has 47 miles of coastline – of which six have been demarked as Heritage Coast – incorporating Beachy Head and the white cliffs of the Seven Sisters.
4.1c Historic monuments such as the castles at Bodiam, Herstmonceux, Hastings, Lewes and Pevensey, as well as the Martello Towers along the coast and Battle Abbey serve as a reminder of East Sussex’s place in history. Culturally, East Sussex has many cultural sites of renown; these include the De La Warr Pavilion at Bexhill-on-Sea, Glyndebourne in Lewes District, the Towner in Eastbourne and the Jerwood (in development) at Hastings.
4.1d In a speech in August 2010, David Cameron outlined the coalition government’s commitment to the tourism sector which, he argued, “for too long has been looked down [upon] as a second class service sector.” The Prime Minister went on to state that he believed the sector “fundamental to rebuilding and rebalancing of [the] economy” and offered one of the “best and fastest ways of generating jobs”.
4.1e At the national level the tourism sector employs around 10 per cent of the workforce, and contributes £115bn to the economy. The increased accessibility of mainland Europe through low-cost airlines impacted the local sector in recent years, but the coalition government’s desire to increase visitors to the UK– especially from increasingly wealthy economies such as India and China – could offer a boost to the local tourism sector, bearing in mind the significance of international transport hubs in neighbouring Gatwick, Ashford International Station and Dover. Within East Sussex, Newhaven is also a key international port that is planned to benefit from further development.
4.1f An increased domestic demand for ‘staycations’ has occurred in recent years which should benefit the local tourism sector.57 Tourism is a significant source of income to East Sussex. According to the Office of National Statistics 2009 Travel Trends survey those tourists who visited East Sussex in 2009 spent £294m. Approximately 311,000 people visited as part of a
56 In fact, the South Downs has been nationally recognised for its natural beauty and the space it offers for people to enjoy the countryside. This is why it has been made into a National Park. 57 The term ‘staycation’ is a neologism referring to domestic holidays. The term has become popular in the media as a result of many families choosing to spend holidays within the UK to save money post recession.
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holiday and 46,000 visited for business.58 These figures relate to non domestic tourists. For example Lewes received 3.04 million visitors in 2009; tourism spend amounted to £155.9 million and the sector accounted for 2,300 jobs (7.2% of all jobs), Eastbourne received 4.8 million visitors, who spent a total of £252.1 million. The sector accounts for 10.3% of all jobs.
4.1g The new SDNP is likely to enhance the tourism and leisure profile of the County and help increase visitor numbers; this may provide additional revenue for not only areas within the national park but other nearby rural communities and market towns that can, for example, offer accommodation, further visitor attractions and local produce.
4.2 Transport
Road and rail links in the County are poorly connected and congested, impacting on its attractiveness as a place to live, work or visit.
4.2a The quality of local transport plays a key role in maintaining and developing the health and vitality of an area. For residents, transport links provide access to employment, medical care, shops and other services, whilst connectivity to both internal and external markets is cited by more than 40% of businesses as an important factor in location decisions.59
4.2b In urban areas of high demand, delays associated with congestion impact adversely on both businesses and employees, affecting quality of life, and eroding some of the benefits associated with any concentration of economic activity.60 In rural areas, poor quality transportation can lead to these communities being marginalised, negatively affecting their access to services, training opportunities and productivity whilst exacerbating problems of worklessness. As the East Sussex Interim Work & Skills Plan notes: “individuals cannot apply the skills that they have developed to the labour market [if] transport connections are poor”.61
4.2c Findings from the East Sussex Annual Business Survey 2011 suggest that concerns with public transport in the County has risen slightly returning to the 2008 levels; the percentage of those with (apparently) no concerns has reduced from 84% in 2010 to 76% in 2011. No single transport issue dominated public transport concerns, with frequency of buses (7%) and rail services (5%), rail service reliability (5%) and public transport costs (5%) being most commonly mentioned, albeit at relatively low levels.
Road and rail links in East Sussex
58 ONS (2009) Travel Trends Survey. Total spend includes visits for different purposes: tourism (holidays), business and visiting a friend of relative. 59 IPSOS MORI (2008) National Business Survey 60 Glossop, C. (2008) Housing and Economic Development: Moving forward together, Centre for Cities and Housing Corporation Centre for Research and Market Intelligence. 61 East Sussex Adult Learning and Skills Partnership Board (2010), Interim East Sussex Work & Skills Plan.
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Surrey
Kent Forest Row Wadhurst Upper Hartfield
Ticehurst West Sussex Nutley Mayfield Crowborough
Burwash Robertsbridge A268 Uckfield Rye A Newick 2 Camber Rother 1 5 Heathfield
7
2 6 A 2 Wealden A Battle A259 Lewes A Winchelsea 2 2 Ditchling Ringmer
A2 71 Lewes Fairlight Hailsham Hastings Brighton Kingston Pevensey & Polegate & Hove Westham
Alfriston A27 Pevensey Bay Stations East Dean Saltdean Railway lines Peacehaven & Friston Newhaven A Eastbourne A roads Seaford 259
Produced by the Research & Information Team, Urban areas Transport & Environment, ESCC. © Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Unitary/District boundaries 100019601, 2010.
4.2.1 Roads
4.2.1a The quality of the road network of East Sussex poses a significant challenge to the long-term economic health of the County. Of 3,402 km of road, just 11.8km is classified as trunk road with a further 10.8 km of A-road, whilst the County is not served by a motorway. In light of the 3% increase in levels of traffic in the County observed between 2003 and 2008, there is cause for concern that the road network is already acting as a major constraint to business expansion and economic growth and is likely increasingly to do so in the future.
4.2.1b The condition of the majority of the roads in the County is measured every year and assessed in terms of what proportion of the network is in need of repair. Significant investment towards improving the condition of the unclassified road network and the gradual improvement in the condition of the non-principal roads has been undertaken, more is planned; East Sussex in 2004 was reported as performing poorly in comparison with other counties and levels of satisfaction with the condition of local roads and pavements were lower than average.62
4.2.1c A strategic road network which is not fit for purpose, in terms of accommodating longer distance strategic traffic, results in increased traffic using less appropriate roads, creating a greater maintenance burden on those roads, higher accident rates and reduced connectivity between areas. This specific problem is in evidence on the A27 and A259 corridors where
62 Audit Commission (2004) Transport Services - East Sussex County Council
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the roads are operating at capacity at peak hours and have sections with significant safety issues.63
4.2.1d The County Council continues to lobby for improvements to the A27 to ensure that it is fit for purpose. For example the improvements as part of the Southerham/Beddingham flyover and the associated works carried out by the Highways Agency in 2008 have reduced journey times by up to 6.5 minutes between Brighton and Polegate and improved the safety and quality of journey. Further improvements to the strategic road network will be needed to unlock the development potential for both housing and employment at a number of key sites including Bexhill/ Hastings via the Bexhill – Hastings Link road, Newhaven and South Wealden/Hailsham/Polegate.64
4.2.1e A number of schemes were identified which would help deliver spatial and economic growth in the county these include: • Bexhill-Hastings Link Road (decision expected end of 2011) • A23 Handcross - Warninglid (programmed for implementation) • A21 Baldslow Link (cancelled) • A21 Kippings Cross-Lamberhurst (cancelled) • A21 Flimwell-Robertsbridge (cancelled) • A21 Tonbridge-Pembury (will come forward 2015 at the earliest) • A27 Folkington Link (underdeveloped schemes)
4.2.1f In respect of new road build and improvements the delivery timeframe is currently uncertain due to the government's comprehensive review of major schemes. These improvements together with a comprehensive programme of sustainable transport measures, and a well integrated transport and land use planning approach (coming through the Local Development Framework process), are however seen as fundamental to enabling major spatial development in the county as well as facilitating regeneration and economic growth.
4.2.1g Such schemes should improve the journey time reliability sought by local businesses whilst reducing carbon emissions generated by stationary traffic in local congestion hotspots. However, any delay to these schemes could impact on the local planning authorities’ capacity to deliver housing and commercial units where roads enable access and, would potentially affect the ability of the county’s road network to continue to meet future pressures.
4.2.1h The Coalition Government’s intended abolition of Regional Development Agencies has meant that the South East Plan is expected to be repealed through the Localism Bill if enacted. The main process by which
63 To address this, the County Council is carrying out a two year programme of maintenance work on the county’s road network worth more than £23 million. The programme includes more than 240 road improvements schemes covering 180km of highways across the county’. 64 There are also proposals to improve or dual the A26 between the A27 junction and Newhaven. This would assist the regeneration of Newhaven generally, especially with the implementation of the forthcoming port Masterplan. However, there may be planning objections due to the road’s location in the National Park, and uncertainties over funding in the current climate.
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the county council would normally lobby for funding towards major transport schemes will therefore be removed. A replacement process for how funding towards major transport schemes can be attained has yet to be formally clarified; it is envisaged that one of the ways this may happen will be via the Local Enterprise Partnerships.
4.2.1i The case for improving the East Sussex road network is both economic and environmental. In East Sussex, road is the predominant mode of transporting freight. Recent years have seen an increase in the number of freight movements being made. Although, in general, individual vehicle pollution levels are decreasing, the increase in the volume of freight vehicular movements means that emissions from road hauliers are increasing, with road freight accounting for 8% of UK CO2 emissions.65
4.2.1j The impact of traffic congestion is becoming an increasingly important issue, with latest estimates suggesting the cost of congestion to the UK economy is around £20 billion per annum.66 The vast majority of freight vehicles on East Sussex roads serve the needs of industries and consumers in the County, who depend upon the freight industry for a wide range of goods and services.
4.2.1k Over recent years, many homes have acquired internet access, resulting in an increase in home shopping and the subsequent delivery of goods by lorry. It can be argued that home shopping generates a reduction in vehicle emissions, as there would be fewer vehicles required to transport goods bought over the internet, compared to a situation where each individual was to make separate trips to make the purchase. However, a counter argument exists which states that individuals may use the time they would otherwise spend making shopping trips to make more social/cultural trips, thereby there would not be a noticeable saving in carbon emissions.
4.2.1l The Highways Agency (HA) pointed out in their response to the LEA consultation that although there are some parts of the Strategic Road Network (SRN) in East Sussex that do not fully meet SRN standards for a new road, the low volume of long distance traffic (as identified in the South Coast Corridor Multi Modal Study 2002) in part makes it difficult on some tests to justify improvements. The HA also stated that it does not support road capacity improvements purely for development purposes with an emphasis on sustainable development and a reduction in car use.
4.2.1m The 2011 Annual Business Survey however identified that the proportion of respondents with issues about private transport increased by nearly half in 2011 (from 2010) and almost a third of businesses raised road tax/fuel costs as a concern, up from less than 10% in 2010. When asked about future transport improvements, the most frequently mentioned aspects were better roads (poor conditions) and better access to road links/infrastructure. The road infrastructure in East Sussex is therefore
65 Department for Transport (January 2007) Freight Best Practice: Local Authority Freight Management Guide, p.5. 66 Department for Transport (2004) DfT Feasibility Study of Road Pricing
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currently identified, yet again - and increasingly – as a key business concern.
4.2.2 Buses and Community Transport
4.2.2a Many people, especially older and more vulnerable groups, rely heavily on local bus and community transport links for access to jobs and to services to prevent them becoming economically and socially marginalised.
4.2.2b A steady and significant increase in the number of bus trips being taken in the County has been observed over the past decade, an increase augmented by the implementation of the national Concessionary Fares scheme for older and disabled people and the Quality Bus Partnership (QBP); in Hastings, the latter helped boost passenger journeys by 32% between 2002 and 2009. The County is working with partners to take forward a QBP in Eastbourne with an emphasis on improving punctuality and reliability of service leading to greater satisfaction and an increased number of people using buses in the town.
4.2.2c Whilst providing the majority of the bus mileage in the county, the commercial network is principally focused on the county’s urban areas and key routes between them. Accordingly, bus services in the remainder of the county, equating to 75% of the overall number of services run in East Sussex, are subsidised by the County Council. This is a particular challenge in trying to deliver the County Council’s objectives in terms of accessibility to services and facilities for an increasing percentage of the population. A new Bus Strategy for the County was adopted in 2010 which clarified the objectives for a comprehensive bus service comprising both commercial services and where necessary and funding allows, supported services.
4.2.2d Working with voluntary and community groups and local communities the County Council is seeking to expand the range of community transport services operating in the county by providing start-up grants for a range of community led schemes to support their initiation and make them self sustaining in the future. A Community Transport Framework is included in the East Sussex Local Transport Plan 3.
4.2.3 Rail
4.2.3a Across Great Britain since the mid-1990s, rail travel as measured by total passenger kilometres, has risen from less than 30 billion per year, to more than 50 billion in 2009.67 It is an especially important form of transport for commuters and tourists, with poor quality services affecting the willingness of businesses or workers to relocate in an area, or tourists, customers or clients to travel there.
4.2.3b The quality and standard of train services in East Sussex suffers both in terms of east-west movement along the coastal corridor and also in terms of connectivity to London. In 2010 Network Rail produced three Route
67 Office of Rail Regulation (2009) National Rail Trends2008-09
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Utilisation Strategies (RUSs) which will impact on the rail network in East Sussex, namely the Electrification RUS, the Sussex RUS and the Kent RUS. In addition the London and the south east RUS gives little attention to rail in and affecting East Sussex services/infrastructure, much in the same way as the Kent, Sussex and Electrification RUSs. The RUSs therefore provide very little benefit for rail service and infrastructure improvements in East Sussex. Most notable is the proposed removal of the direct Cannon Street service from Hastings (via Tunbridge Wells) which would cease to operate when Thameslink Key Output 2 commences in 2018. This is likely to have significant consequences on the economic development and regeneration initiatives that have and continue to take place in the Hastings/Bexhill area, and could potentially discourage people/businesses from locating in the area, as well as potentially encouraging existing residents and businesses to relocate to where a better rail service to London exists - ahead of 2018.
4.2.3c ESCC works in partnership with the rail industry to achieve improvements at stations, including car and cycle parking, better integration with buses and improved services/amenities. A station audit has recently been completed by East Sussex County Council and they are liaising with the rail industry to implement the action plan arising from this audit.
4.2.3d ESCC therefore continues lobbying and working where possible with the rail industry to see improved services, including increased frequency of services and additional carriages on congested routes. Achieving these improvements would provide greater choice for those wishing to travel by rail for social, educational and business purposes, reducing the number of vehicles on the road. One example of success is that (along with other stakeholders) is the introduction of a later evening service on the Uckfield line, which enables commuters to work or stay later in London.
4.2.3e Partnership working is paramount in ensuring that, wherever possible, the views and aspirations for rail service and infrastructure improvements for East Sussex are addressed and progressed wherever possible. These include:
• Regular liaison with Network Rail and the Train Operating Companies (Southern and Southeastern) to address a range of rail related issues including car/cycle parking, accessibility and developing/delivering schemes to alleviate problems at and around stations. • Road/Rail Partnership meetings with Network Rail to address issues and problems where road, rights of way and bridges meet the railway, looking predominantly at safety issues at level crossings. • Attending the Sussex Community Rail Partnership, Association of Transport Co-ordination Officers (Rail), and the Thameslink Consortium.
4.2.3f Key rail infrastructure for the County Council and partners include:
• Electrification and dual tracking of the Ashford-Hastings line.
• Electrification between Uckfield and Hurst Green.
• Reinstatement of the Lewes-Uckfield railway line.
• Reinstatement of the Willingdon Chord.
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• New stations at Glyne Gap, Wilting and in the Polegate/Stone Cross locality.
4.2.4 Ports
4.2.4a UK ports have suffered significantly over recent years with consumers preferring to use faster low-cost airlines and the channel tunnel instead of ferries for travelling to Europe. Following future redevelopment of the port of Newhaven by its owners Newhaven Port and Properties (NPP), the numbers of passengers using the port to travel to or from Dieppe is expected to climb to around 500,000 per year.68 With regards to freight only, the port dealt with 1,196,000 tonnes in 2008 up from 861,000 in 2009 (this includes containers, road goods vehicles, unaccompanied trailers, rail wagons, ship borne port to port trailers and ship borne barges only). The latest passenger numbers for Newhaven Port were 244,000 in 2009 (and 76,000 passenger vehicles).
4.2.4b Current initiatives to help boost the economic regeneration of the port and the town include promotion of the port for both freight and passengers, the potential for onward shipment of freight from the port by rail and better passenger interchange facilities at Newhaven Town station. In addition, the port was named in the government’s paper on offshore wind farm facilities ‘UK Ports for the Offshore Wind Industry: Time to Act’ as a place from which a potential offshore wind farm development in the Channel could be serviced given that Hastings Bank off Newhaven (now known as ‘Rampion’) is undergoing feasibility research by the potential developer E.ON as a wind farm site.
4.2.4c NPP have also produced a Port Masterplan to map out the future development potential of the port and land use within it.
4.2.4d East Sussex has two other smaller designated ports at Hastings and Rye which are also the home berth for the local fishing fleets. The fleets are important in their own right as a source of employment and local produce; they also have an important role as a tourist attraction. Sovereign Harbour at Eastbourne has a large marina; leisure craft are seen as a potential growth sector. There is also a smaller marina and fleet at Newhaven.
4.2.5 Air
4.2.5a Over 30 million passengers travel through Gatwick airport in neighbouring West Sussex every year. The Gatwick Surface Access Strategy, published in 2007, sets out to encourage greater use of public transport in accessing the airport and local hotels with the aim of reducing levels of car and taxi use. Importantly, improvements to the Brighton Mainline Railway and the Thameslink service could reinforce the links between Gatwick and the East Sussex coast, particularly if it includes the services to Eastbourne.
68 Newhaven Ferry Port (2010) Advertising Rates – accessed at http://www.newhavenferryport.co.uk/Rates2010.pdf
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4.3 Housing
The County made good progress against now non statutory original South East Plan targets, but scores poorly on measures of affordability; vacancy rates are high and waiting lists are growing.
4.3a The characteristics of the local housing supply, such as type, price and quality, can impact on the attractiveness of an area to live and work for different socio-economic groups. Whilst less affluent groups tend to live in areas where the quality of housing is lower, more densely packed and prices are cheaper, more affluent (and often more skilled) people tend to seek housing of higher quality and cost with space.
4.3b High average house prices can provide an indication that either demand is high for people to live and/or work in the area or that tight UK planning policy has restricted supply (or a combination of the two). This, as well as policy drives to regenerate poorer areas, can lead to the original residents being priced out of the market, limiting the options of those with fewer resources. On the other hand, better quality housing (and relevant amenities) can indirectly create jobs by helping to boost the attractiveness of the area to business start-ups and private sector investment.69
4.3.1 The Profile of Housing in East Sussex
4.3.1a Housing tenure across East Sussex shows some significant differences to national tenure profile and that of the South East generally. In particular the levels of affordable housing are lower at 11.8% of the whole housing stock, compared to 14% in the South East and 19.1% across England and Wales.
Figure 4.1: Housing by tenure
100%
80%
60% Rented privately Social rented Owner occupied 40%
20%
0% England and Wales South East East Sussex
Source: 2001 Census
69 Turok, I. and Robson, B. (2007) ‘Linking Neighbourhood Renewal to City-Regional Growth’, Journal of Urban Regeneration and Renewal, Vol. 1, No. 1.
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4.3.1b Even within the County there are differences particularly in the levels of owner occupation, which is highest in the rural districts of Wealden, Lewes and Rother, with outright ownership highest in Rother. By contrast, the number of homes being privately rented is significantly higher in Hastings, at 17.8%, compared with just 5.6% in Wealden.
4.3.2 Housing Stock Condition and Empty Homes
4.3.2a Data for 2006 indicates that 4.7% of the County’s housing stock is unfit for human habitation; this is slightly higher than the national average (4.4%) and higher than the regional average (3.3%). There is a significantly high rate of unfitness in the urban areas of Hastings (10.4%) and to a slightly lesser extent also in Eastbourne (6.4%). Wealden, by contrast, performs relatively well on this measure (1.1%) There is a clear link between higher levels of privately rented accommodation and poorer quality housing stock.
4.3.2b The supply of rented housing various enormously both within and across district areas and includes concentrations of poorer quality private sector housing, particularly in the coastal towns where Homes in Multiple Occupation (HMOs) are a feature. In some areas, such as Hastings, there is a particularly strong association between the rented tenure and higher levels of social and economic deprivation.
4.3.2c As might be expected in traditional tourist locations, the percentage of the housing stock vacant and in use as second home/holiday accommodation is almost double the national and regional average. Whilst vacancy rates in Lewes and Wealden are below regional and national averages, figures for Hastings, Rother and Eastbourne are above. However, levels of accommodation left empty (and not in use as second home/holiday accommodation) are also high (3.5%) compared to regionally (2.7%) and nationally (3.2%).
Figure 4.2: Occupancy rates in the County (%)
Source: DCLG (2009)
4.3.2d In 2007 a partnership of East Sussex Local Authorities and Brighton & Hove City Council formed BEST (Brighton & East Sussex Together), which has proved highly successful in developing and delivering a programme of private sector housing improvement, including initiatives to tackle empty homes.
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4.3.3 Affordability
4.3.3a Average house prices in the County have remained steadily below regional levels, but above national levels across the last decade. At the district level, prices in Wealden, Lewes and Rother have closely matched those observed in the region as a whole since 2003. However, the average price of a house in Hastings in 2010 was just £149,475, around 20% below the national average70.
Figure 4.3: Average house prices in East Sussex; 2003-10
250,000
225,000
200,000
175,000
150,000 Average house price (£)
125,000
100,000 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10
England and Wales South East East Sussex Eastbourne Hastings Lewes Rother Wealden
4.3.3b However, when taking account of local incomes, the cost of housing remains a huge barrier preventing people from buying or setting up home for the first time. The average house price to earnings ratio in 2010 was 8.7 in East Sussex, compared to just over 7.0 nationally71. The affordability ratio has increased slightly in all East Sussex Districts since 2009, reflecting a slight recovery in house prices offset against depressed wage inflation.
Figure 4.4: House price affordability (ratio of median house price to median earnings); 2003-10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 East Sussex 7.6 8.1 8.6 8.5 8.8 9.2 7.6 8.7 Eastbourne 7.3 7.2 7.8 7.4 7.4 7.5 6.4 7.1 Hastings 5.8 6.7 6.8 7 7.2 7.4 6.6 6.8 Lewes 7.9 8.4 8.7 8.5 9.4 10.3 7.8 9.2 Rother 8.8 9.6 10.6 10 11.2 10.5 8.8 10.6 Wealden 9.2 9.2 11.2 10.1 10 10.6 9.4 10.2 Source: CLG (2002-09)
4.3.3c When lower quartile comparisons are considered, affordability gaps are more startling, with a ratio of 8.9 in East Sussex in 2010 compared to 6.7
70 Department for Communities and Local Government (2010), Median house price 71 Department for Communities and Local Government (2010), Median affordability ratio
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nationally. Whilst this represents a reduction from the peak of 9.5 in 2008 it still means that home ownership is beyond the means of very many households across all districts within the county.
4.3.3d As the Rural Coalition notes, affordability remains an urgent priority for rural areas, since the stock of affordable homes has historically been proportionately lower than in urban areas. Low local wages and a lack of affordable homes often means that people who work in the countryside are increasingly priced out of the local housing market.72
4.3.4 Housing Need
4.3.4a The large disparity between average income and house prices in the County has led to a significant increase in the number of households on local authority waiting lists seeking accommodation. In East Sussex as a whole, the number of households on these lists increased by over 50% between 2002 and 2010. Demand for accommodation is widespread across all district areas, with the numbers of households waiting for accommodation now totalling nearly 11,000 county-wide. Given the comparatively low level of existing affordable housing, Local Authorities are under significant pressure in terms of meeting high and rising housing needs across the County.
Figure 4.5: Households on Local Authority waiting lists; 2002-10 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Eastbourne 2,041 2,806 3,000 3,354 4,481 5,225 3,404 4,409 2,216 Hastings 1,734 1,866 1,482 1,575 1,296 2,175 1,730 2,112 2,261 Lewes 809 927 1,203 1,312 1,485 2,041 2,207 1,724 2,142 Rother 1,539 1,825 2,387 2,037 1,398 1,362 1,542 1,689 1,933 Wealden 977 1,620 1,954 2,219 2,309 1,613 2,185 2,233 2,229 East Sussex 7,100 9,044 10,026 10,497 10,969 12,416 11,068 12,167 10,781 Source: DCLG (2002-10)
4.3.4b Local Authority proactive homelessness prevention services implemented in recent years have resulted in the levels of homelessness applications falling locally and in line with national reduction targets. However, both Eastbourne and Wealden still have homelessness acceptance levels (2.7 and 2.8 respectively per 1000 households), which are higher than the national average (2.4 per 1000 households). Preventing homelessness is still a considerable challenge across the County, with access to decent and affordable housing presenting a significant barrier to those on lower incomes. The private rented sector has expanded considerably in recent years and is being successfully utilised to prevent homelessness by East Sussex local authorities. It also provides a degree of opportunity and choice for the many households for whom access to social rented is unlikely to be an available option. Nevertheless, there remains a concern that an oversupply of cheaper rented accommodation in specific district areas provides a route into the County for the further in-migration of marginalised households from areas of
72 The Rural Coalition (2010), The Rural Challenge. Achieving sustainable rural communities for the 21st century.
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London and the South East where housing demand is even more acute and expensive.
4.3.5 House building
4.3.5a Although the South East Plan is to be scrapped, it is important to note that progress against house building targets was strong in the County. Despite this, the completion of new homes falls well short of what is required With large to meet the identified needs. According to Housing Needs Surveys, an extra disparities in wages 2,270 affordable homes are required to keep up with demand. House building, and in particular affordable house building, continues to be and house prices, challenging in terms of viability. There are two important components that affordability remains determine whether a housing development is likely to be viable or not: the a key challenge for overall scheme needs to be profitable for the developer; and the overall scheme needs to generate a positive land value so that the land owner is the County incentivised. Across many areas in East Sussex, viability is challenged where existing land uses have higher value. Although a problem across the County, this is more widespread in urban areas, particularly the seaside towns, where developers cannot expect to achieve such high residential sales values. In such cases, grant towards the delivery of affordable housing is vital to ensure a scheme’s viability and ultimately, its delivery.
4.3.5b In rural areas, housing delivery mechanisms are in place, for example through the designation of rural exception sites within planning policy. Nevertheless there are significant barriers in terms of the time, effort and resources required to bring these sites forward with the support of the whole community. There are particular challenges associated with delivery in rural areas. A key constraint is the understandable sensitivity around land availability, and its use given the amount of environmental designations, and at times organised opposition to such schemes. However, rural house building, and in particular affordable housing is vital to support the ongoing vitality of the rural villages and to support a thriving local economy.
4.4 Employment space
Employment land is relatively cheap in East Sussex, but many businesses are not satisfied with the quality or quantity of accommodation and there may be an increase in the numbers considering moving out of the county.
4.4a The cost and quality of an area’s employment land can have a major bearing on business location decisions: the 2008 National Business Survey reported that the availability of suitable premises is important to over 40% of businesses,73 whilst other research suggests that improving the design of office space can boost productivity by more than 10%.74
4.4.b Similarly to those buying houses, businesses face a trade-off between price and quality. High quality employment land, with the corresponding local
73 IPSOS MORI (2008) National Business Survey 74 CABE (2005) The impact of office design on business performance, CABE: London.
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amenities, will be more expensive than lower quality employment land. Whether businesses will pay this premium for higher quality space is a key business location decision.
4.4.1 Rateable value
4.4.1a Relative to the regional average, employment land in East Sussex is cheap; the rateable value per m² of employment land in the County is lower than in the South East as a whole. Only Eastbourne, which has the largest share of the County’s retail floor space (300,000 m²), has a rateable value above £100, indicating that demand for retail space in the area is high. The price of commercial office space in the County is very low; at less than half the average for England & Wales, with prices in Hastings at less than one third of this average. Significant increases in costs of all three types of employment land since 2000 are observed in Lewes.
Figure 4.6: Rateable value of employment land by type (£ per m²) Commercial Retail Offices Factories 2000 2008 2000 2008 2000 2008 Eastbourne 87 105 48 58 28 33 Hastings 68 84 36 40 29 30 Lewes 73 96 57 89 28 39 Rother 60 79 41 42 25 26 Wealden 71 96 68 78 37 42 East Sussex 74 93 50 62 30 35 South East 101 138 108 113 33 40 England and Wales 96 128 114 126 24 29 Source: DCLG (2000-09)
4.4.2 Demand
4.4.2a According to the ESABS11 the proportion of East Sussex businesses looking for alternative or additional accommodation had fallen from 25% in 2007 to 14% in 2008 and 10% in 2010; this has increased a little to 12% in 2011, combining those looking currently and in the past 12 months.
4.4.2b The proportion of businesses seeking additional or alternative accommodation over the last 12 months have tended to take a more local focus, 45% of the total sample said they had been or were, at the time of the survey, looking in their current town/village. This has local focus has increased over the past three surveys. In the 2010 Survey, it was reported that the proportion of those businesses seeking accommodation outside East Sussex had grown, from 6% in 2008 to 17% in 2010. In 2011, this has fallen back to 12%, representing 14 businesses – five in Wealden, four in Rother, two each in Eastbourne and Lewes, and one in Hastings. 12 out of 14 were Micros (1-10 employees) and, as in 2010, more than half were in the Financial/Real Estate industry sector.
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4.4.2c When asked if they would be taking on additional staff if they found the right premises, businesses’ responses were varied; 34% said ‘yes definitely’, a decline on 39% in 2010 and 49% in 2008, but this was partially compensated for by 43% saying probably, more than double the figure in 2010. This would suggest a cautious intent to recruit, although a further 19% said ‘very unlikely’, compared to 13% last year.
4.4.2d Most businesses looking to relocate expect to hire more employees within two years of moving; with 12% of businesses currently seeking new or additional accommodation, applying this percentage to the 22,000 VAT registered businesses in East Sussex and in respect of the 34% and the 43% who said they would/would probably recruit (using one new staff member only), produces a low estimate of 2,000 jobs that could be created if these businesses were able to find suitable accommodation locally. This highlights the need to retain businesses by providing the accommodation required as well as attracting new enterprise, especially given the importance of creating private sector jobs.
4.4.2. When asked what they would like to be different about new premises, from a prompted list, amongst the total sample, the two most often stated characteristics were ‘larger’ at 45% and ‘cheaper’ at 43%. As shown in Figure 2.2, these were also two of the characteristics mentioned in 2010 but were reported at a much higher level last year. ‘More energy efficient’ has also dropped considerably, from 69% in 2010 to 25% in 2011, which is lower than in 2008
4.4.2f Of those businesses looking for alternative or additional accommodation, 41% stated this was office accommodation, those looking for retail space increased from 15% in 2010 to 24% this year, back to a similar level to 2008. Light industrial was at 23%, heavy industrial 4%.
4.4.2g Given that nearly 90% of the businesses in the survey sample were, in a reflection of East Sussex businesses generally, Micro businesses (1-10 employees), it is hardly surprising that their demand is for relatively small premises. 82% of those looking for office accommodation (44 businesses) were looking for ‘small’ premises <1,000 sq ft. This is less the case with industrial sites or warehousing where over 50% were seeking premises >2,000 sq ft.
4.4.3 Supply
4.4.3a Businesses were asked about the features of the district in which they are located, from a prompted list, and whether they considered each feature to be positive or in need of improvement. Figure 4.7 below shows those areas by district most in need of improvement. The ‘local road network’ followed by ‘links to major road/ rail routes’ have the highest county average scores. Note the individual differences between Districts on individual themes however.
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Figure 4.7: Areas most in need of improvement by District East Sussex Eastbourne Hastings Lewes Rother Wealden Need for improvement average
Local road network 65% 64% 76% 54% 73% 65%
Links to major rail / road 40% 37% 58% 30% 44% 38% routes High speed broadband 40% 38% 40% 29% 39% 47% Mobile phone coverage 37% 26% 29% 33% 30% 51%
Good reliable public 35% 30% 37% 23% 37% 43% transport
Cheap rents 33% 44% 27% 36% 31% 30%
On site car parking 26% 40% 37% 29% 29% 19%
Availability of appropriately 22% 15% 27% 20% 26% 24% skilled local labour Local Post Office services 22% 22% 20% 23% 18% 26%
Availability / cost of finance 22% 27% 20% 22% 20% 22%
Ease of obtaining 22% 17% 21% 21% 24% 24% appropriate planning permission Good local business support 17% 21% 20% 12% 18% 15% network Being close to suppliers 15% 10% 15% 17% 17% 13% Being close to customers 11% 13% 15% 11% 10% 10%
4.4.3b The table below shows the ranking for features needing improvement across the county, showing a comparison with the positives and a plus or minus net score. The net score represents the difference between the percentage of respondents rating each feature as a positive versus those who believed the feature was in need of improvement (excluding those who had no view or who were not aware).
Figure 4.6: County ranking for features needing improvement
Need for Positive +/‐ improvement feature Local road network 65% 29% ‐36 Links to major rail / road routes 40% 48% +8 High speed broadband 40% 45% +5 Mobile phone coverage 37% 54% +17 Good reliable public transport 35% 38% +3 Cheap rents 33% 30% ‐3 On site car parking 26% 50% +24 Availability of appropriately skilled 22% 45% +23 local labour
Local Post Office services 22% 62% +40
Availability / cost of finance 22% 28% +6
Ease of obtaining appropriate planning 22% 19% ‐3 permission Good local business support network 17% 56% +39 Being close to suppliers 15% 45% +30
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4.4.3c Pointedly the local road network is shown, by far, as most in need of improvement across the county.
4.4.3d In the 2010 survey businesses were asked which aspect of their nearest urban environment could be improved to attract and retain business. Around a fifth of businesses in East Sussex suggest that better public spaces (22%) and shopping facilities (21%) as most able to make the County more attractive to both businesses and employees (see Figure ) coming just ahead of less fear of crime (19%) and more housing choice (17%). Figure 4.7: Aspects of the urban environment to improve to attract businesses and employees
Cleaner, attractive public spaces 22% Better shopping facilities 21% Less fear of evening/night crime 19% More housing choice/affordability 17% Better performing schools 14% More recreational open spaces 13% More sports facilities 12% Broader range of NHS facilities 10% More niche café/restaurants 9% A cultural venue (e.g. art gallery) 5% Other 16% None in particular 32% Don't know 2%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Source: East Sussex Business Survey 2010 2010 Base: All Respondents = 1013;
4.4.3e With the above coming out of the 2010 Business Survey, it was thought in the 2011 survey to look at how local business regarded East Sussex as a place to do business – its business profile; this was also to inform a current project looking at this aspect. The 2011 Survey asked ‘To what extent do you think that East Sussex has a strong or weak business identity?’ This was asked on a five point scale, where 1 = no business identity, 3 neither good nor bad, through to 5 = very strong business identity. The highest proportion (40%) opted for a middle rating (3). More respondents (29%) were in the 1-2 categories – weak identity – than in the 4-5 categories (22%) – strong identity.
4.4.3f In thinking about business accommodation it must be remembered that at any point in time the expectation is that around 10% of all business accommodation will be empty - needs to be empty – this allows for ‘churn’ giving businesses the opportunity to move as appropriate to their business needs. The appropriateness is looked at above in terms of what is demanded – the local authorities through their LDFs and Locate East Sussex will have a view if it can currently be supplied.
4.4.3g Importantly however it must be recalled that a reasonable benchmark for ‘normal’ demand (pre recession – the 2008 Annual Business Survey)
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identified that more than two thirds (67%) of businesses that were currently looking or who had recently looked for accommodation reported that the stock of business premises available in the area was insufficient. Additionally around 25% of all businesses in East Sussex reported that there was insufficient business accommodation available at that time, rising to around a third of all those feeling able to comment on this situation. 26% did not feel that they knew enough about the accommodation stock in the county to be able to answer this question which questions the profile of the local business stock.
4.4.3h Businesses in urban areas were more likely to feel that the stock of accommodation was insufficient compared with businesses in rural areas (29% compared with 16%). This is perhaps a reflection of greater competition for suitable business space and prime locations in urban areas, which may not exist to the same degree in rural areas.
4.4.3i Negative perceptions of the stock available may discourage businesses from considering moving, even if this could benefit them and could also be a perception by business outside of East Sussex thereby stopping them from looking to move into the area -
4.4.3j On top of this however is the need to facilitate future economic growth – to have the range required to allow for ‘churn’, the attraction of inward investment, indigenous business growth and related job number expansion (that will also required by an expanding workforce) and to reduce out commuting additional commercial units will be required; the Hastings and Rother Employment Land Review (May 2008) puts this, for example, at an overall amount of additional employment floorspace (i.e. for B class uses or similar to 2026) in the order of 208,000m² as a requirement for Hastings and Rother, other similar East Sussex District LDF documents will significantly add to this requirement.
4.5 ICT infrastructure
Residents of East Sussex are relatively less likely to have access to the internet, whilst large tranches are not served by a broadband connection. (Also see Accommodation Supply at 4.4.3 above) 4.5a The new Coalition government is aiming to create the “best superfast (20Mb/s+) broadband network in Europe” by the end of the parliament.75 Estimates vary greatly as to what effects such a network would have on Britain’s economy – the Federation of Small Businesses estimates that it would add £18bn to GDP and 60,000 jobs to the workforce, whilst NESTA estimate an employment increase of ten times this amount.
4.5b Broadband can not only boost business productivity by allowing them do things more quickly – such as transferring large files instantaneously, expanding possibilities of videoconferencing and home working – but could also provide the foundations for the next generation of businesses to thrive as well as facilitating faster, more flexible service provision for residents. Indeed, almost two-thirds of businesses in England view ICT and Broadband
75 Jeremy Hunt, Culture Secretary; 8th June 2010
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Infrastructure as important to their competitiveness.76 Improved broadband not only enables people to access a wider range of goods and services, but allows those outside of East Sussex, including globally, to access goods and services from East Sussex businesses. With high levels of businesses only trading locally and poor road and rail infrastructure, improving broadband connectivity and speed is important to strengthening East Sussex’s business base. The importance of broadband has been recognised within the LEP, with east Sussex taking the lead.
4.5c The availability of broadband and the internet county wide will increase opportunities for home working and will also allow more people currently working outside of East Sussex to work within the County. There are significant benefits to be gained by home working, including less road congestion at peak times through reduced commuting for work purposes, and a reduction in carbon emissions.
4.5.1 Resident access to the internet
4.5.1a Estimates of the number of adults with a daily internet connection prepared by CACI in 2010 show that East Sussex residents are less likely to have access to the internet than the national and regional averages. Around 69% of East Sussex adults, compared with 74% nationally and 77% regionally were estimated to have access to a daily internet connection. Internet access enables people to access a wider range of goods, services and information; this is particularly important for those with disabilities who may otherwise be unable to do so.
4.5.1b Residents in Lewes (74%) and Wealden (72%) districts were more likely to have access to the internet than those in coastal areas to the South and East of the county. Access to the internet is greatest in Chailey & Wivelsfield ward where an estimated 85% of adults have access to a daily internet connection.
4.5.1c The lowest levels are mainly found in wards in urban Hastings and Bexhill, which in part may reflect the relatively high levels of deprivation in these areas, but may also be due to the very elderly nature of the population of some wards in Bexhill; Sackville ward in Bexhill has the lowest proportion of adults with access to a daily internet connection (46%), and over 30% of the population is estimated to be aged over 75.
76 IPSOS MORI (2008) National Business Survey
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Figure 4.8: Access to an internet connection in 2009 (proportion of adults)
Adults with internet connection by ward 2009
Internet connection
39.5 - 58.8 58.9 - 66.8 66.9 - 74.1 (c) Crown copyright. 74.2 - 81.5 All rights reserved. 100019601, 2010. District boundaries
Source: CACI (2009)
4.5.1d Around 90% of all internet connections in the UK are broadband, meaning that around 63% of all UK households have access, although levels vary quite a lot across the Country. In East Sussex there are 11 fairly large areas with absolutely no broadband access, including areas surrounding Burwash Common; the east of Jarvis Brook; Robertsbridge; Three Oaks; the Pevensey Levels; areas north of Jevington and Arlington; Southease and Rodmell; Ditchling; areas east of Wych Cross; South West of Rotherfield and Groombridge. No borough or district is affected more than others – areas with no broadband provision are spread throughout the County.
4.5.2 Business Access to Broadband and Internet
4.5.2a The greatest proportion of business broadband coverage in East Sussex is between 0.5-2 Mb/s which is defined as poor coverage in terms of speed. Some of the largest areas with such coverage are to the north west and north east of Crowborough; around Burgess Hill and Low Weald; Lewes Castle stretching down to Southease; north west of Robertsbridge reaching up to the County border; the area between Bexhill and Hailsham; around Waldron; and the coastal area from Fairlight reaching around to Playden just outside Rye.
4.5.2b There are however many areas of reasonable business broadband coverage in East Sussex, defined as areas with access to speeds of 2-4
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Mb/sec. These include the east boarder of East Sussex stretching from Saltdean to Falmer and to the south of Lewes town in Itford and south of Beddingham. There is reasonable broadband provision to the north-west of Bexhill and the north-west of Hastings stretching up in a thin band to Whatlington. A sizeable area of reasonable broadband can be found to the north-east of Burwash Weald, to the south-east of Newick and around Friar’s Gate and Withyham. There are many other smaller areas in East Sussex with reasonable coverage.
4.5.2c The largest areas with good provision – defined as 4+ Mb/sec – are Peasmarsh to the County border; the west of Broad Oak and the north-west of Northiam; north of Rotherfield and Mayfield; the north-east of Eastbourne; north of Seaford stretching up to Tarring Neville; and the area stretching from south of Shortgate up to New Town and Blackboys.
4.5.2d ESABS11 identified that almost half of all businesses had low proportions of staff using computers and ICT (47%) and in contrast, a similar proportion (40%) stated they had high usage, indicating a degree of polarisation for computer and ICT usage amongst East Sussex businesses. Further analysis showed that one in five respondents (21%) said none of their staff used computers or ICT, whilst over one third of respondents (39%) said all of their staff use computers or ICT’, confirming the polarisation.
4.5.2e Almost half of all micro-businesses (48%) with between 1 and 10 employees have a minimal proportion of staff using computers or ICT (i.e. between 0 and 19% users).
4.5.2f Over three quarters of all respondents (84%) have business site access to broadband; this leaves a significant minority however of businesses still without broadband access (16%). Whether this is by choice or because it is not available is not known. Financial, Real Estate and Business Service sector as have almost universal site access to broadband (97% with access). Other sectors have between 80% to 90% access with the exception of the Wholesale, Retail, and Motor Repair sector, which has a significantly higher proportion of businesses, almost a third (31%), without broadband access.
4.5.2g Almost a third (30%) of East Sussex businesses claimed to have high speed broadband (24 Meg and above), with 40% not having it and 30% stating they didn’t know their broadband speed. Of all business respondents either without broadband at all or without high speed broadband, almost a third (31%) declared they will access broadband or increase their broadband speed over the next 2 years. 15% declared they might access broadband supply.
4.6 Transition to a low carbon economy
The County’s carbon footprint is relatively low and the green economy represents an opportunity for growth, but businesses have been slow to implement green policies and initiatives.
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4.6a The definition of a ‘low carbon economy’ remains fairly ambiguous, but the government has targeted a reduction in carbon dioxide levels to 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. Broadly speaking, this means reducing carbon dioxide emissions by around 3% per year, but how this will translate into the The County’s future structure of the economy of East Sussex is uncertain. Clearly, it will be carbon footprint is easier to reduce emissions from some activities – such as improved recycling and building energy efficient homes – than others, meaning that relatively low and the structure of the entire UK economy may have to change dramatically if the green economy targets are to be met. represents a very 4.6.1 Government climate change policy real opportunity for growth, but 4.6.1a The Committee on Climate Change, which advised the previous Labour Government on adopting the 80% target concluded that a range of businesses have technologies are available or can be developed (in power, buildings, industry been slow to and transport), which would make the required emissions reductions possible and that this would cost the UK 1-2% of GDP in 2050. The view of implement green the Committee was that decarbonisation of the power sector is key to policies and achieving emissions reduction targets and that renewable energy generation initiatives. – through wind power, new energy storage and load balancing technologies such as smart metering, and some solar power – could make a significant contribution to power sector decarbonisation in the UK.
4.6.1b The first marker on the road to a low carbon economy is a 34 per cent cut in emissions on 1990 levels by 2020. The previous Government’s Low Carbon Transition Plan established key objectives for delivering this, including sourcing 40% of electricity from low carbon sources, including nuclear, and 30% from renewables. More recently, the Coalition Agreement stated the aim to “decarbonise the economy and support the creation of new green jobs and technologies” whilst supporting an increase in the EU emission reduction target to 30% by 2020.
Key low carbon objectives of the Coalition Government: • public sector investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology for four coal-fired power stations • a smart grid and roll out smart meters • a full system of feed-in tariffs in electricity – as well as the maintenance of banded Renewables Obligation Certificates • measures to promote a huge increase in energy from waste through anaerobic digestion • measures to encourage marine energy • measures to encourage energy efficiency improvements in homes, businesses and public sector buildings • an offshore electricity grid in order to support the development of a new generation of offshore wind power • encourage community-owned renewable energy schemes where local people profit from the power produced
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• a green investment bank and green financial products to provide individuals with opportunities to invest in the infrastructure needed to support the new green economy.
4.6.1c The Coalition government has also withdrawn a law banning councils from selling renewable electricity back to the grid. Currently just 0.01 per cent of electricity in England is generated by local authority-owned renewables, compared to fully 1% in Germany. Although opportunities are limited, the coastal position of southern East Sussex and its low population density could put it in a good position to benefit from this change to the law which could be worth up to £100 million a year in income for local authorities across England and Wales.77
4.6.2 Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions
4.6.2a The best available data on a County level of emissions produced by industry and commerce (including agriculture) come from data gathered for the National Indicator NI 186. This data has been gathered since 2005 and is currently available to 2007. The data is limited in that it is broken down for industry and commerce primarily only for energy use, and only for larger energy users – given the predominance of smaller businesses in East Sussex, this is likely to be an under-estimate of the total energy-related business carbon dioxide emissions. Meanwhile, road transport emissions associated with business are aggregated with private road transport emissions and therefore are not available for East Sussex. The data is therefore useful for indicative purposes but cannot be considered comprehensive.
4.6.2b The majority of business CO2 emissions are from the use of electricity (57.6%), with around 20% of emissions resulting from gas consumption. Emissions in the East Sussex industry and commercial sector fell by just over 6% between 2005 and 2007, primarily due to a drop in the consumption of oil. Whilst this is a good start, it is clear that emissions from businesses did not reduce by the target 3% per year during this period, this being one indicator of the local economy being on the right track towards ‘low carbon’.
Figure 4.9: Business CO2 emissions 2005-07 (000s tonnes)
National Indicator 186
4.6.2c Stockholm Environment Institute data suggests that East Sussex has a greater per capita ecological footprint than the UK per capita, but is below
77 DECC (2010) ‘Huhne ends local authority power struggle’; released 09.08.2010
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the South East on this measure. Predominantly rural areas, such as Rother
and Wealden produce more than 13 tonnes of CO2 per capita per year, almost 10% more than the UK average. The Rural Coalition’s recommendation on exploiting the potential of renewable energy in the countryside as well as encouraging low-carbon activities and behaviours is relevant here (The Rural Challenge: Achieving sustainable rural communities for the 21st century (2010)). Conversely, Hastings performs better than the UK average on all measures.
Figure 4.10: Measuring the ecological footprint of East Sussex (per capita)78
Ecological Tonnes CO2 Green House Gas footprint* (gha) footprint CO2 Eastbourne 5.36 12.12 16.48 Hastings 5.24 11.80 16.01 Lewes 5.61 12.68 17.21 Rother 5.73 13.01 17.57 Wealden 5.91 13.32 18.08 East 5.57 12.59 17.07 Sussex South East 5.63 12.76 17.28 UK 5.30 12.08 16.34 Source: Stockholm Environment Institute (REAP) 2004 data published Oct 2008; gha = Global hectares
4.6.3 Business waste
4.6.3a Waste costs businesses money (collection and disposal costs are in the order of £140 per tonne) and contributes both directly (organic waste produces off methane when it decays) and indirectly (the need then to produce new materials such as plastics instead of recycling) to levels of emissions. Historically, levels of waste have increased with economic growth, as businesses create more products and provide more services and consumers become more profligate. The coalition government is aiming to create a ‘zero waste economy’, creating a huge scope both for businesses to become more resource efficient and for commercial opportunities to exploit this through the relevant development and provision of goods and services.
4.6.3b Estimates of the commercial and industrial waste produced by the County vary from around 313,500 to 490,000 tonnes annually; the ESABS 2010 suggests that just 42% of businesses in East Sussex have taken action to reduce or prevent the amount of solid waste that their business produces.
78 * Ecological Footprints are disaggregated by economic sector, detailed final demand category, sub-national area or socio-economic group. This is done by combining existing National Footprint Accounts with input-output analysis. Calculations in the empirical part are carried out by using supply and use tables for the United Kingdom. Ecological Footprints are allocated to detailed household consumption activities following the COICOP classification system and to a detailed breakdown of capital investment.
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The vast majority of businesses (90%) recycle but 44% of businesses recycle or compost less than one fifth of their company’s waste.
4.6.3c An even higher proportion of the construction (54%) and manufacturing (57%) sectors recycle, suggesting tailored initiatives might need to be undertaken in some sectors to improve recycling initiatives. Clearly there is a great deal of scope both for businesses to become more resource efficient and for commercial opportunities to exploit this in terms of goods and services. In this respect, East Sussex County Council, Bexhill and Hastings and West Sussex County Council are undertaking a Waste and Minerals Core Strategy and a Commercial and Industrial Materials Resource Strategy (2010).
Figure 4.11: Actions by East Sussex businesses taken to prevent/reduce waste
Recycle externally 90% Policy to not print unless essential 74% Reduced waste in house 68% Monitor waste and material/consumable costs 61% Duplex printing/photocopying 51% Reduced packaging 44% Redesigned processes 30% Redesigned products 16% Other actions 10%
0% 50% 100%
Source: East Sussex Business Survey 2010; Base: Where actions taken to prevent/reduce waste = 430
4.6.4 Business energy & water consumption
Energy 4.6.4a Research conducted in 2009 for Business Link South East found that the vast majority of businesses in the Region felt that their business practices were sustainable.79 However, only 45% of businesses in the 2007 East Sussex Business Survey had a formal environmental management system or written environmental 'good practice' policy. Awareness of advice schemes was found to be fairly low in the County at around 25%, but more than four-fifths of those businesses who had accessed advice put at least some of the energy cost reduction suggestions received into practice.
Figure 4.12: Prevalence of environmental management systems or policies by sector – East Sussex 2007 Annual Business Survey
79 South East Business Monitor – Hot Topic Spotlight: Sustainability, November 2006, Business Link.
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4.6.4b Businesses currently have access to a number of advice schemes designed to assist in reducing their environmental impact, such as the Business Excellence through Resource Efficiency (BETRE)80 advice programme through which businesses can arrange an environmental audit of their activities. However, less than one in five businesses in the County was aware of the programme when asked in the 2007 survey. Awareness of other national programmes such as Envirowise81 and Actionenergy82 were similar at 20% and 23% respectively.
4.6.4c Evidence from the 2010 East Sussex Business Survey suggests that less than a third (28%) of businesses had ever accessed advice on reducing energy costs. However, 56% of businesses in the hotels and restaurants sector have accessed energy cost advice. Perhaps unsurprisingly, larger businesses are more likely to have accessed energy advice. Whilst the majority of businesses not accessing energy advice were small businesses, almost a half of medium sized businesses (50-249 employees) had never accessed energy advice and almost one in five large businesses (19%) had never accessed energy advice.
4.6.4d The vast majority of businesses (81%) put at least some of the energy cost reduction suggestions where received, into practice. In over a quarter of cases (26%), actions taken by a business following energy saving advice resulted in a reduction of energy costs by more than 20% whilst 60% proceeded to reduce energy costs following advice by 0-20%. Businesses’ primary reason for not taking advice was the expense and time needed to implement changes.
Water 4.6.4e Sussex is in a water stressed area, as it is one of the driest areas in the country. Industry, people and wildlife rely on readily available water. By creating a simple water management plan, businesses could reduce water use by up to 80 per cent thereby saving money. The Environment Agency estimates that: • Manufacturing industry water bills could be costing over 1% of business turnover.
80 For fuller description of the programme see http://www.eastsussex.gov.uk/business/green/default.htm (accessed on 24/05/2007). 81 See www.envirowise.gov.uk (accessed on 23/05/2007). 82 Advice delivered by the Actionenergy programme is now presented under the banner of the Carbon Trust. See http://www.thecarbontrust.co.uk/energy (accessed on 24/05/2007).
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• Retail, hospitality or service sector could save up to 50% of their water bill.
4.6.4f There are simple and low cost ways to save water with a pay back periods of months including low or dual-flush toilets, tap controls, urinal controls and using rainwater water butts. Not only does saving water save on water bills, reducing hot water use reduces energy bills.
4.6.4g It is also worth bearing in mind that building businesses to be water efficient in the first place is more efficient and cheaper than retrofitting. Therefore the Environment Agency recommends non-residential developments achieve a water efficiency standard such as BREEAM (BRE Environmental Assessment Method) excellent rating.
4.6.5 Green economy
4.6.5a With large cuts in public spending it is clear that the transition to a low carbon economy will be an important opportunity for private sector investment and growth, especially it would seem in renewables and energy efficiency. However, there are no reliable data for East Sussex showing how this translates into jobs and GVA and indeed to what extent the local economy could suffer if it is not well placed to exploit these opportunities; having said this as a new and potentially growing industry the County’s businesses should be encouraged to investigate suitable supply chains within the industry and look to where they themselves can diversify. East Sussex does however have a strong technical skills base with relatively high levels of manufacturing employment in Wealden, Lewes (Newhaven) and Hastings, in particular. It must be ensured that appropriate skills are developed and applied to take advantage of new opportunities that may emerge with the future development of environmental technologies. Importantly, the carbon intensive sectors most at risk from a low carbon economy are not very prevalent in East Sussex.
4.6.5b Terms such as ‘low carbon’, ‘green’ or ‘clean energy employment’ are clearly open to interpretation. In 2007 the Commission on Environmental Markets and Economic Performance (CEMEP) emphasised the relevance of environmental markets to the whole economy, positioning it more as an emerging ‘cross sector market’ as opposed to a stand alone. The green economy is spread across such a wide range of the standard industrial classifications used to determine economic activity, making an estimate of current ‘green jobs’ and markets impossible to quantify at the local level. It is probable that the future low carbon economy of East Sussex will be as varied as, albeit different from, the current local economy and will be similarly spread among SMEs.
4.6.5cThe Work Foundation believe that the low carbon economy will comprise such a diverse range of sectors that the collective prediction of their future growth is not viable and the task of forecasting individual low carbon economic activities is no less daunting. Their report stated that “The future development of demand for these goods and services, technical aspects relating to their likely supply and the future availability of an appropriately skilled workforce remain highly uncertain. In predicting these
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activities, forecasters are forced to make assumptions about each of these. The outputs from these exercises are dominated by such decisions, rather than the fundamental drivers of the low carbon economy”.83
4.6.5d This notwithstanding, ‘green jobs’ traditionally refer to occupations that contribute to preserving or enhancing environmental ‘health’ and quality; protecting ecosystems, controlling/ reducing pollution, reducing energy or waste. Meanwhile, ‘low carbon’ jobs refers to employment in sectors that make up the ‘clean energy economy’ and, although they generally include a range of medium-high level skill activities, they are usually again defined by occupation; related R&D, design, production/ assembly, marketing & retail, transport & distribution, installation, maintenance and support services, including legal support.
4.6.5e A recent EU Commission report (2009) estimated the net number of jobs created by reaching the EU’s target of 20% renewables in energy use in 2020 at 410,000. In terms of the UK, the Global Climate Change Network found that if the UK target of renewable energy capacity were reached by 2020, around 133,000 jobs could be created. Work commissioned by HMG via Innovas estimated a total of 400,000 jobs by 2015 in low carbon and environmental goods & services, including renewables.
4.6.5f However, the green economy is not necessarily good news in terms of employment: research highlighted by the Global Climate Change Network suggests that although clean energy industries may be more labour intensive in the short term, net job creation may level out or even become negative as and when technologies mature, efficiency gains are made and economies of scale increase. Added to this, job losses are likely to occur in carbon intensive industries, taxes may rise to recoup the fiscal cost of green stimulus programmes and higher initial costs to consumers (e.g. low carbon electricity) may also lead to job losses elsewhere in the economy.84
4.6.5g The word ’green’ is also associated with the economy to include specific economic activity taken forward in a ‘sustainable way’; this could for example, and is often used, in relation to ‘green tourism’ which includes that visited, transport to get there and how the accommodation provided looks to minimise waste, energy use etc.
4.6.6 Green procurement
4.6.6a Although no data is available specifically for East Sussex, the SEEDA Annual South East Sustainability Survey 2009 found a considerable increase in the proportion of businesses in the South East meeting customer demand for more environmentally or ethically acceptable products (59%) compared
83 Work Foundation (2009) A 2020 Low Carbon Economy - A Knowledge Economy Programme Report) 84 Perhaps in recognition of the need to still grow existing indigenous industry (to include countering job losses) the House of Commons Business & Enterprise Select Committee 11th Report (Jan 2010) said “Any strategy for ensuring that the United Kingdom has a higher value-added economy must not look simply at new opportunities flowing from new technologies or new challenges, such as the move to a low-carbon economy, but must also identify, safeguard and build on existing manufacturing strengths”.
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with 2007 (35%). The same proportion (59%) also felt that “buying ethically from suppliers with similar values” (presumably including environmental values) was very or fairly important, a rise of 7% from 12 months previously.
4.6.7 Green transport
4.6.7a The introduction and uptake of green transport can offer significant cost savings to businesses and their employees. However, the ESABS 2010 reported that two-thirds of businesses were taking no action in support of Government policy to reduce non-renewable energy consumption and carbon emissions. The most common initiative being introduced were workplace travel plans – although this is true of less than one fifth of businesses – ahead of changing to rail for long hauls (11%).85
4.6.7b As businesses and employees continue to tighten their belts, the efficiencies available through greener transport – for example fuel savings made by encouraging taking the train for long distance meetings – should become both more apparent and prevalent.
Figure 4.13: Green transport initiatives introduced by businesses in East Sussex
No action being taken 67%
Introducing green travel plans 18%
Changing to rail for long haulage 11%
Switching to alternative fuels for transport 9%
Other actions 5%
Introducing electric vehicles 4%
0% 40% 80%
Source: East Sussex Business Survey 2010; Base: All Respondents: 1013
4.6.7c In East Sussex, the majority of freight is transported by road; therefore, there is a need to identify ways in which goods can be transported more sustainably. The points below highlight the main ways this is being sought:
• It is estimated that each HGV in the UK uses, on average, 4,000 gallons of fuel per year. The way in which vehicles are driven will affect safety and fuel use therefore there are savings to be made by more efficient driving. • DfT’s Freight Best Practice, Safe and Fuel Efficient Driving for HGVs was developed to enable freight operators and training providers to
85 A workplace travel plan is simply a package of measures which aims to provide greater sustainable travel choice for staff and reduce the number of single occupancy car journeys for commuters and business use.
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implement driver training in the freight industry, by improving the safety and fuel efficient driving techniques of drivers. Those that implement safer and efficient driving will reap benefits including savings in fuel costs, increased productivity, and reduced running costs, as well as increased driver confidence. • The DfT is currently in the process of considering options to achieve a 90% uptake of eco-driving training for drivers of Large Goods Vehicles (LGVs). • Preliminary analysis shows that, at 2009 prices, if 90% of LGV drivers were eco-driving trained and continued to drive in accordance with these standards, then up to 600,000 tonnes of CO2 and £300 million in fuel costs for the industry could be saved each year. The DfT have therefore committed to exploring how to achieve this 90% uptake of eco-driving courses, including making it a mandatory part the training undertaken every five years by professional drivers to retain the EU Driver Certificate of Professional Competence. • In respect of a localised initiative, the County Council’s Road Safety Education team currently runs a programme of education for companies called COSTS - Company Operator Safer Transport Scheme - which educates companies with regard to their responsibilities under the Corporate Manslaughter Act from a transport perspective. The initiative was developed by the Sussex Safer Roads Partnership and highlights the need for company policies on driving, and provides an opportunity to promote good practice, including eco-driving.
4.6.8 Attitudes towards the environment
4.6.8a According to Experian’s ‘GreenAware’ tool – which segments consumers into one of ten categories in terms of their carbon footprint, behaviour and attitudes – residents in East Sussex are more aware of, and concerned about, the impact of their behaviour on the environment relative to regional and national averages.
4.6.8b Some 57% of households in the County are classified in the top five groups (those segments deemed most ‘environmentally-friendly’) compared with 54% of households in the South East as a whole, and 51% across England. At the district-level, the most ‘environmentally aware’ area on this measure is Rother (64%) with the least being Hastings (43%).
4.6.8c East Sussex is most represented in the single ‘Green but doubtful’ category in relation to the UK average; this largely older group, which tend to recycle and are well-informed yet sceptical, account for 23% of the local population as opposed to 14% nationally. The County is also reasonably represented in the ‘Doing their best’ – largely made up of young and middle- aged women in their thirties and forties, juggling family life and found in suburban and rural locations.
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Figure 4.14: Attitudes towards the environment in East Sussex
Source: Experian GreenAware (2010) – Household based.
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Figure 4.15: Green transport initiatives introduced by businesses in Drivers, trendsEast Sussex and influencers
Source: East Sussex Business Survey 2010; Base: All Respondents: 1013
4.6.9 Attitudes towards the environment
According to Experian’s GreenAware tool – which segments consumers into one of ten categories in terms of their carbon footprint, behaviour and attitudes – residents in East Sussex are more aware of, and concerned about, the impact of their behaviour on the environment relative to regional and national averages.
Some 57% of households in the County are classified in the top five groups (those segments deemed most ‘environmentally-friendly’) compared with 54% of households in the South East as a whole, and 51% of those across England. At the district-level, the most ‘environmentally aware’ area on this measure is Rother (64%) with the least being Hastings (43%).
East Sussex is most over-represented in the ‘Green but doubtful’ category in relation to the UK average; this largely older group, which tend to recycle and are well-informed yet sceptical, account for 23% of the local population as opposed to 14% nationally. The County is also over-represented in the ‘Doing their best’ – largely made up of young and middle-aged women in their thirties and forties, juggling family life and found in suburban and rural locations.
Figure 4.16: Attitudes towards the environment in East Sussex
Source: Experian GreenAware (2010
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5 Drivers, trends and influencers
The retrenchment of Clearly East Sussex cannot be treated as an island independent of external drivers which will influence its development over the coming years. In this public sector section we outline the most important trends identified currently at the global, spending may mean national and local level that will shape the future of the County. some communities 5.1 A global perspective will suffer from reduced access to 5.1.1 Rise of emerging markets services, whilst The rise of emerging markets, such as Brazil, Russia, India and China public sector job (BRICs), has been brought into sharper focus as the global economy cuts will hit those emerges from the economic downturn. Not only were BRICs less severely hit by the crisis that disproportionately struck more mature economies, but they areas with a greater have also recovered more quickly. dependence on it for 5.1.1a The implications of increasing emerging market power are also employment. Both shifting. Many traditional manufacturing activities have been forced to shed of these factors are employment or close operations as demand leaked away to the lower cost evident in East base centres of East Asia and Eastern Europe, reducing employment opportunities within the UK and the lower value-added manufacturing Sussex. sectors in East Sussex. However, as the burgeoning middle classes in these countries increase levels of consumer spending, the demand for higher value goods and services offered by more mature economies is likely to increase.
5.1.1b The UK retains a comparative advantage in these high value-added manufacturing and service industries, and these represent a viable investment opportunity for robust emerging market businesses keen to access new geographic markets.
5.1.1c A focus on such industries could secure long term jobs growth in East Sussex, but only if this is properly supported by the appropriate business- focused skills profile and local businesses actually rise to meet the export challenge.
5.1.2 Climate change
5.1.2a With many economies around the world in the grip of austerity measures and the failure of world leaders to produce a binding climate change accord in Copenhagen in late 2009, it might appear that environmental issues have taken a back seat. However, as flash floods have ripped across large swathes of South and East Asia and Australia (and even the UK) and droughts in Russia have sent wheat prices spiralling upwards, the clamour for governments to tackle environmental issues will only increase.
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5.1.2b Research conducted by the Cleantech Group, suggests that global investment in clean technologies topped $4 billion in the first half of 2010, a huge increase from 12 months previously, suggesting that the sector is already playing a large role in driving recovery.86 This has not gone unnoticed in the UK, where the new coalition government recognises the opportunity the ‘cleantech’ sector represents in terms of returns on investment and job creation.
5.1.2c The LEA has looked in depth at this area and notes that in terms of job creation numbers from new services and industries associated with, for example, mitigating the affects of climate change there is a degree of uncertainty. However this is a new and growing area and there are undoubtedly opportunities for businesses in the County to take advantage of this and renewables to include R&D and mechanical and electrical engineering.
5.1.3 Technology
5.1.3a The way people do business is heavily intertwined with rapid advances in technology. The ever increasing speed of broadband connections means huge files can be transferred in moments, videoconferencing is fast and reliable and people are able to work more flexibly and from home. Further, the rise of social networking sites means the way people interact with each other is changing just as rapidly. On the eve of ‘facebook’ getting its five hundred millionth member, The Economist asked whether, as the third biggest ‘population’ on earth, it should be treated more as a nation than as a social network.87
5.1.3b Although this question was asked principally to provoke debate, there is no doubt that the rise of technology means globalism has taken on a new form, and highlights the need for East Sussex to include plans for increasing broadband speeds, promoting flexible working and harnessing the power of marketing and new markets (for example through ‘social networking’) at the forefront of development strategies.
5.2 A UK perspective
5.2.1 Austerity & inequality
5.2.1a The new Coalition government has made tackling the huge budget deficit its number one priority. The emergency budget and the Spending Review (see below) contained a raft of measures to reduce government spending, many of which will inevitably impact on the lives of the people living and working in East Sussex.
5.2.1b Indeed there are fears that the so-called ‘age of austerity’ may hit certain areas of the county disproportionately hard. The retrenchment of
86 Cleantech Group (2010) http://cleantech.com/about/pressreleases/Q2-2010- release.cfm 87 The Economist (2010) The future is another country; 22.07.10
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public sector spending will mean that those areas that gain most from, for example, discretionary government grants (usually the more deprived communities) will have reduced access to such grants and related services which could, in turn, further marginalise their communities. Public sector job cuts will hit those areas of the country with a greater dependence on it for employment. Both of these factors are very evident in East Sussex.
5.2.1c In 2008, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reported that “income inequality and poverty have fallen faster in the United Kingdom than in any other OECD country since 2000.”88 Meanwhile, a 2010 report commissioned by the government indicates that inequality has not been narrowed since the 1980s; with the richest 10% of society now 100 times better off than the poorest 10%.89 The gap between rich and poor in the UK is far more pronounced than some of its closest neighbours such as Sweden, France and Germany and it is feared that an unevenly distributed recovery will exacerbate this problem.
5.2.1d Strong evidence of polarisation between high and low-income groups in East Sussex is presented in this report. Managing mainstream spend (and grant) reduction are now even more key to the continuing re shaping of equality in the area, for example via more tightly focused intervention either thematically or spatially with a view to real quantifiable impact on addressing localised inequalities.
5.2.2 Rebalancing the economy
5.2.2a The Coalition government has pledged to rebalance the UK economy both in terms of sectors and in terms of geography. It has highlighted an over-reliance on both London and certain sectors as being “wasteful and unstable.”90 It has promised a new industrial policy, focused on growing industries such as aerospace, pharmaceuticals, high-value manufacturing and engineering, low carbon technology, creative and knowledge-based industries.
5.2.2b Clearly public sector cuts associated with the deficit and economic rebalancing will impact on the county. The apparent focus preference for the north over the south east and London as shown in the first round of the Regional Growth Fund allocations points to the need for local partners and the LEP to ensure that the Government Ministers and their Departments no longer parcel the south east up into a single homogenous region but are able to recognise and act appropriately in respect of the individual areas of opportunity, growth, infrastructure barriers and deprivation that sit within it.
88 OECD (2008) - Growing Unequal? : Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries 89 National Equality Panel (2010) - An Anatomy of Economic Inequality in the UK 90 Number10.gov.uk (2010) Transforming the British economy; 28.05.10. The coalition government has emphasised the overreliance on public sector as well as specific industries within the private sector – namely financial and business services,
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5.2.3 The Spending Review: summary overview by theme
Families & Children: 5.2.3a There will be more early-years funding for the most disadvantaged children. Sure Start however will become a service only for the disadvantaged.
5.2.3b The government will put extra money into early years, including funding 15 hours per week of early years’ education and care to all disadvantaged two-year-olds from 2012–13.
5.2.3c Although Sure Start will still serve the more disadvantaged children how this will affect other families given it is at the moment a universal service is not known – childcare costs will undoubtedly enter into this, especially if non disadvantaged lose the service, which may well prove an additional barrier to work. What the criteria are that determine ‘disadvantage’ will be an important determination in relation to the future access to Sure Start; the Department for Education and the Department for Health will be publishing a policy statement on Early Years later in 2011, setting out their vision for reform.
Skills: 5.2.3d A reduction of unit costs for 16–19s implies cuts in the numbers of courses, teachers and colleges.
5.2.3e There will be continued support for basic skills provision to gain basic numeracy and literacy skills. Adult and Community Learning will also continue.
5.2.3f The Government will boost spending on adult apprenticeships by £250m a year, providing up to an additional 75,000 apprenticeship places every year by the end of the Spending Review period. The 2011 East Sussex Annual Business Survey identified that only circa 4% of East Sussex businesses currently offer apprenticeships; the largest two reasons for not offering it were that the apprenticeships or that the accompanying framework were not appropriate. This is obviously an area that requires further investigation as without replying to the businesses’ perceived or real barriers to apprenticeships the situation is unlikely to improve. The Adult Learning and Skills Partnership Board will no doubt play a role in this, as will other networks (e.g. the Sussex Learning Network.)
5.2.3g Reductions to key BIS activities include the ending of Train to Gain and replacing it with an SME focused training programme.
5.2.3h Universities will be able to charge up to £9,000/year for course fees – the expectation is that they will generally be around £6k. The Government will, by 2014-15, establish a new £150m National Scholarship Fund (NSF) to support students from disadvantaged backgrounds.
5.2.3i When the new fees are introduced then the affects will be known; this will include the need to monitor attendance by local people at the University
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Centre Hastings, and the Eastbourne Campus to determine any reduction locally and how the NSF is used to counteract this. FE colleges may be in a position to offer some courses more cheaply and will need to look at this opportunity. Apprenticeships as an alternative to degrees may become of a popular choice – as indicated above we need to ensure that there are sufficient opportunities within the county to meet any/the increased demand.
Business: 5.2.3j The Government will give extra help to unemployed people who want to start their own business through the New Enterprise Allowance (NEA). Initially the Allowance will be available in those areas which face the greatest unemployment challenge. The Allowance will be available to Jobseeker Allowance (JSA) claimants who have been claiming JSA for more than 6 months. It will include access to a business mentor. Once there is a viable business proposition claimants will be able to claim financial support consisting of a weekly allowance payable at the same level as JSA payments for 3 months, and then at half that rate for a further 3 months. In respect of capital, they may also be able to access a loan up to £1,000 to help with their start-up costs. Elements of the Allowance will be phased in from January 2011, before rolling out the full offer from August 2011.
5.2.3k Investment of up to £200 million by 2014-15 will be available to support manufacturing and business development – with a focus on high growth businesses.
5.2.3l Financial barriers to business start ups (including the saving up of ‘free finance’) are more likely where people are on a fixed income (either through benefits or (basic) pensions), and is therefore more likely to occur in the more deprived areas of the county. Although the NEA is set to help those on JSA, in particular, realise enterprise as an alternative it is much less generous than the old form of the Enterprise Grant (of c20 years ago) and therefore may not be as successful; this is an area where data when available will enable identification of equity, or not, of use and success.
Deprived communities: Families 5.2.3m ‘Community budgets’, bringing together local public services for families with complex needs, will be piloted in 16 areas from April 2011 ahead of possible roll-out in 2013–14.
Climate change: 5.2.3n Climate change remains at the heart of the Coalition, and DECC has been relatively protected. Key projects – such as micro-renewable support mechanisms, the Green Investment Bank (see below) – have been saved, although questions about the overall level of support remain, as do questions about delivery bodies like the Energy Saving Trust and the Carbon Trust, where funding for the latter will end March 2012.
5.2.3o The Green Investment Bank will start lending from April 2012; the initial £3bn capital should enable the bank to catalyse an additional £15bn of investment for green infrastructure. The bank however will not have borrowing powers until at least April 2015. Priorities for the Green
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Investment Bank could be wind, waste and non-domestic energy efficiency. The bank is intended to bridge the gap between venture capital and the green economy and provide the finance for low-carbon infrastructure.
5.2.3p The bank may provide additional lending choice for local companies involved or moving into the renewables area.
Housing: 5.2.3q Housing Associations will be able to charge new tenants ‘affordable rent’ at up to 80% of the market rate; on average, for a three-bedroom property in England, the payment will be £164.44 more per household per week. This could exacerbate levels of poverty and debt among already deprived tenants.
5.2.3r There will be a 10% cut in housing benefit for people who have been on Job Seekers Allowance for more than a year.
5.2.3s A New Homes Bonus scheme has been will set aside £900m to match the Council Tax on every new home built for each of the following six years.
5.2.3t The government will continue investment in the Decent Homes programme: £2bn in capital funding is to be made available to help complete this programme.
5.2.3u The December 2010 Decentralisation and Localism Bill, offers local authorities ‘more freedom’ in planning, and encourages communities to get more involved in ‘self planning’ including house build.
5.2.3v The current CLG consultation on change of use (commercial to residential) may result in more (mainly ‘in fill’?) housing to be built however it, if passed it would reduce the commercial premises stock available; reduced business accommodation may result in reduced job opportunities.
Transport: 5.2.3w DfT is moving from 26 separate local transport grant streams to just four from 2011-12:
> A local sustainable transport fund (capital and revenue); > Major schemes (capital) > Block funding for highways maintenance (capital); and > Block funding for small transport improvement schemes (capital)
5.2.3x A £560 million local sustainable transport fund is to be set up for local authorities (outside London) to bid for funding to support packages of transport interventions that support economic growth, reduce carbon emissions, deliver cleaner environments, improved air quality, enhanced safety and reduced congestion.
5.2.3y The review of transport scheme funding has resulted in all the schemes along the A21 currently being cut. The future of the Bexhill to Hastings Link Road is also under increased scrutiny with it being placed low
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on the list of schemes that may go ahead; whether DfT will fund it and what their contribution will be will be known winter 2011.
Access to heritage, culture, sport: 5.2.3z Due to reduced subsidies the cost of tickets to cultural venues is likely to rise, and many educational and community outreach programmes may be cut. In addition, cuts elsewhere, particularly to local authorities, will hit public access to the arts although its important to note that local government spending on cultural services, including sport, is currently approximately £2.5bn annually, equivalent to cultural spending by central government and the National Lottery combined. With the funding cuts to national bodies for tourism, heritage and arts has been cut and this will affect the future provision of all services within this sector (including privately run organisations, attractions/creative groups).
5.2.3aa Local authorities in the county already subsidise a number of cultural events and venues (for example the De la Warr Pavilion in Bexhill, Rother, and the White Rock Theatre in Hastings); to what extent given local authority fiscal pressures such subsidies can continue will be realised over the coming years although any action will depend on the length and type of contracts that cover such subsidies.
5.2.3ab The lottery will still be a source of potential funding however bidders/decision makers may seek to better understand the economic value of bids made in order to help with prioritisation of resources.
5.2.4 Demographic change
5.2.4a As birth rates have slowed and life expectancy has increased, the UK has seen a significant increase in the age of its population, and hence in old age dependency ratios. In mid-2009 the average age of a UK citizen was 39.5 years, up from 37.3 in 1999 and from 34.1 in 1971. Moreover, as the so called ‘baby boom’ generation reaches retirement the proportion of the population of pensionable age will soar.
5.2.4b Since 1992, the proportion of the population aged over 80 has increased from 3.8% to 4.6%. This may not sound huge, but it equates to more than 600,000 extra individuals – an increase of almost a third – which poses a number of challenges. Not only will there be a larger population of elderly people requiring care and leisure services, putting additional strains on public finance and service delivery, but meeting the high ‘replacement rates’ required for many jobs as the workforce retires and the working age workforce becomes smaller will also become increasingly important.
5.2.4c That said, reduced mortality and morbidity rates and changes in attitudes will potentially make it attractive/necessary to extend work opportunities for the 65-74s, this coupled with the increasing pension age will reduce, to some extent, the demographic led gap in the workforce.91 At the national level, proportionately fewer working-age people to support a larger older population will put pressure on funding future pensions, a trend
91 UKCES (2010) Skills for Jobs: Today and Tomorrow, UKCES: London.
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exacerbated in East Sussex by the comparatively older population. In any case, appropriate policies will need to ensure that the needs of these groups are catered for, in terms of keeping them healthy and active, a key issue for the County given the high proportion of residents of pensionable age.
5.2.5 Localism
5.2.5a Localism is the idea that decisions should be taken as closely as possible to the people they affect and the Coalition government has placed it at the centre of its plans to reform the UK in terms of how services are planned for and delivered. In the recent draft Localism Bill plans to devolve “greater powers to councils and neighbourhoods, and give local communities control over housing and planning decisions”92 were outlined, with the aims of freeing up local bodies from central and regional control to give local people a much greater say in how budgets are spent.
5.2.5b Additionally the government is now creating Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) following the decision to abolish Regional Development Agencies. LEPs are made up of local authority and business organisations, and other relevant partners with business representation at least at 50%. They are charged with promoting local economic development, for example by focusing on areas including transport, job creation and skills. These partnerships – and the localism agenda in general – will place a much greater emphasis on the role of business, local authorities and other local bodies in tackling challenges in partnership and developing opportunities. East Sussex has joined with Greater Essex, Kent CC, Medway, Southend and Thurrock to form a LEP. The joining of East Sussex with the larger Greater Essex and Kent opens up opportunities for wider joint working, the increased spread of good practice and greater influencing/ lobbying potential via the LEP as a whole; the focus areas as above are reflected within the LEP.
5.2.5c West Sussex, Brighton and Hove (and extending as far a Croydon) also has a LEP ‘Coast to Capital’ (CtC) with which partners in East Sussex will need to also closely work due to inter - dependence for example via commuting, the Universities and SDNP. Lewes District Council in recognition of the high degree of interdependence between the Lewes area and CtC has signalled its wish to work within both LEPs.
5.3 A local perspective
5.3.1 Capital investment
5.3.1a Investment in local infrastructure will clearly have a huge impact on the ability of the county to attract businesses, residents and visitors to the area.
5.3.1b SeaSpace, the executive delivery vehicle operating in Hastings & Bexhill operates a Strategic Plan which includes looking to create high
92 Number10.gov.uk (2010) Queen’s Speech – Decentralisation and Localism Bill; 25.05.10
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quality business accommodation (industrial, office and retail), boost education & skills, and improve transport and broadband connectivity. Much of the initial work has already been completed, including the new business premises at Lacuna Place and One Priory Square and the opening of the University Centre Hastings. One Priory Square has since been bought by SAGA bringing a potential additional 800 jobs into Hastings.
5.3.1c Changes in governance arrangements, namely the introduction of Local Enterprise Partnerships could see an expansion of the SeaSpace (or a successor) model across the County.93
5.3.2 ‘Big society’
5.3.2a That BBC Newsnight chose to base their series of autumn 2010 documentaries surrounding the impact of the ‘Big Society’ in Hastings and Rother was clearly no accident. Given the low wages, high levels of deprivation and dependence on public sector jobs, the key ideas behind the plan – empowering communities, redistributing power and fostering a culture of volunteerism – would be expected to benefit East Sussex, especially its deprived communities, as much as anywhere.
5.3.2b There are examples of the types of projects envisaged by the Coalition government already happening in the County – via organisations such as community and voluntary organisations which, for example, have been successful at helping the unemployed find jobs, boosting aspirations and skills and increasing community cohesion. Although there may be (increased) government awareness of the value of such projects where the revenue funding needed will come from in the future remains uncertain – it will certainly involve a reduced budget from central government.
93 Enterprise- East Sussex – Our bid to create an East Sussex Local Enterprise Partnership, 2010.
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6 Conclusion
6.1 SWOT Analysis
6.1a A thorough SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) revealed that the County, on a positive level has a reasonably diversified private sector business base, high levels of self-employment and a high quality natural environment all of which can be capitalised on. However analysis also identified significant polarisation between the more deprived areas – particularly in coastal towns, for example in Hastings, and the rest of the County, poor levels of connectivity and a heavy reliance on the public sector for employment.
6.1b Looking ahead, the rise of emerging markets (for example low carbon technologies and services, China and India) and the growth of higher value endogenous business (e.g. the business/financial sector) offer opportunities for the County’s economy in terms of output and employment. Further, whilst the public sector spending cuts will force the economy to rebalance away from public sector jobs, the ageing population is likely to result in a stronger care sector that should embrace higher level technologies as part of the service. However, there are fears that the austerity measures could increase already high levels of polarisation in the County, particularly in those areas with a greater dependence on public sector jobs and existing high levels of worklessness, and that the economy may suffer further because of increasing dependency ratios, insufficient quality private sector jobs, lack of increased and appropriate business accommodation, reduced connectivity (especially in relation to transport) and not taking advantage of emerging and geographically wider markets.
6.1c The SWOT must also be seen in the context of the LEP where there will be commonalities of issue across the LEP area. This is already leading to LEP partnerships with areas of joint interest being forged, including focus on rural, coastal regeneration, broadband, European Policy, transport and infrastructure.
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STRENGTHS
• Diversified private sector base • High levels of self- employment • University campus sites in county WEAKNESSES • Outstanding Natural Environment • Weak historical economic • Low carbon footprint growth • Space for new employment • Heavy reliance on public sites sector
• Few large employers & OPPORTUNITIES low business births • High levels of deprivation • Burgeoning middle classes and NEET in coastal in emerging markets areas • Green economy could • Poor connectivity – bring growth and jobs broadband, road, rail • Public sector spending • Too few and inappropriate cuts force economy to business premises rebalance • Low job density • Ageing population will rely on strong local care sector THREATS • Increased levels of ‘staycations’ in UK (at least • Economic power shift to in the short term) emerging markets • Build on existing higher • Reduced access to public value businesses provision of revenue • A mixed skills picture that funding can be built on • Austerity measures could • Climate change (warmer increase polarisation weather=increased tourism • Increasingly elderly potential) population raises dependency ratios • Climate change (e.g. floods, water shortage)
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6.2 How strong is the local economy?
6.2a There is no doubt that times are challenging. Although the County has a relatively diverse business sector economy, many areas, particularly Hastings, Eastbourne and Lewes, have a high proportion of employment in the public sector, now vulnerable to spending cuts, this, coupled with existing high levels of worklessness particularly in Hastings and Eastbourne, increases the likely impact of reduced resources. More broadly, the County suffers from low job density, even without taking into account the potential impact of fiscal austerity measures.
6.2b Therefore, there is a need to focus on business investment and job creation. This includes encouraging and supporting new businesses as well as retaining existing ones in order to increase employment, and encouraging high value added activities where sectoral specialisms exist, for example business services and high value added manufacturing. Other sectors, for example care, health and tourism also provide sources of much needed jobs and are set to grow and, in the case of the former, embrace new technologies in particular (e.g. ‘telecare’).
6.2c Further, East Sussex faces key challenges related to tackling worklessness and deprivation, particularly in Hastings and Eastbourne, to ensure that future growth is inclusive, and that residents have the skills that businesses need.
6.2d But in order to foster job creation and business investment, a number of key long-standing barriers to growth need to be addressed: transport infrastructure needs to be improved, high speed broadband connection rolled out, and the quality and quantity of commercial premises improved so that they are appropriate to business needs. As said, some of these areas are already being taken up via the LEP where working across the LEP area makes sense to do so, and are already reflected in the East Sussex Sustainable Community Strategy and other relevant documents e.g. Employment Land Reviews in the LDFs and Local Transport Plans and the emerging LTP3.
6.2e There are a host of factors that will therefore influence East Sussex’s economic future and without a clear response to mitigate these factors, the outlook for the economy in the next years is challenging. Public sector job cuts, increased competition from overseas, and much reduced public sector spend, will have an impact on economic performance and the choice/ availability of interventions and are therefore likely to widen existing inequalities unless there is focused action where impact is real.
6.2f East Sussex will not sit back and hope to weather the upcoming period of austerity; it will be innovative and identify and effectively use the added value in partnership working with both the public, the private and voluntary & community sectors. Encouraging private sector investment and job creation is critical to achieve a sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth path.
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Appendix A Method Notes, References & Acknowledgments
A1. Method Notes and additional charts
CAMECON Data A1.a The East Sussex (and district/borough) projections are consistent with the February 2010 UK Regional Forecast. They incorporate the latest ABI employment data, to 2008, and Nuts2 (i.e. Surrey, East and West Sussex) sub-regional accounts data for value added to 2007.
A1.b The data for the local area are projections rather than forecasts. They represent the results of model-based analysis, but have not been refined in the light of qualitative information, legislative changes or other 'soft' information.
A1.c The baseline Local Economic Forecasting Model (LEFM) projections are based on historical growth in the local area relative to the South East or UK (depending on which area it has the strongest relationship with), on an industry-by- industry basis. Thus, if an industry in the local area outperformed the industry in the South East (or UK) as a whole in the past, then it will be assumed to do so in the future. Similarly, if it underperformed the South East (or UK) in the past then it will be assumed to underperform the South East (or UK) in the future.
A1.d The projections for population in East Sussex in LEFM follow the pattern for growth in the ONS sub-national population projections for the county.
A1.e It is also important to note that the broad sectoral definitions used by Cambridge Econometrics follow 2007 Standard Industrial Classification Codes (SIC codes). Details in the box below:
Cambridge Econometrics 9 Industry Sectors 2007SIC Codes 1 Agriculture etc 01-03 2 Mining & Quarrying 05-08, 9.1, 9.2 3 Manufacturing 10-32, 38.3 4 Electricity, Gas & Water 35.1, 35.2, 35.3, 36 5 Construction 41-43 6 Distribution, Hotels etc 45-47, 55-56 7 Transport & Communications 49-53, 61, 79 37-39 (excl 38.3), 64- Financial, Business & Other Market 8 74, 78, 80-82, 94, 96- Services 98 9 Non-Market Services 75, 84-88
Sectoral definitions – Specialisms
A1.f The boxes below provide a detailed SIC code based definition of the sector specialisms discussed in Section 2.4 and in this Appendix.
Figure A1: Tourism
SIC Code Descriptor 5510 Hotels 5521 Youth hostels and mountain refuges 5522 Camping sites, including caravan sites 5523 Other provisions of lodgings not elsewhere classified 5530 Restaurants 5540 Bars 6220 Non-scheduled air transport Activities of travel agents and tour operators; tour assistance activities not elsewhere 6330 classified 9233 Fair and amusement park activities 9271 Gambling and betting activities Source: Experian
Figure A2: Health and care of the elderly
SIC Code Descriptor 8511 Hospital activities 8512 Medical practice activities 8513 Dental practice activities 8514 Other human health activities 8520 Veterinary activities 8531 Social work activities with accommodation 8532 Social work activities without accommodation Source: Sic codes within the health broad sector
Figure A3: Environmental sector
SIC Code Descriptor 141 Agricultural Service activities 3120 Manufacture of electricity distribution and control apparatus 37 Recycling 4100 Collection, purification and distribution of water 5157 Wholesale of waste and scrap 6322 Other supporting water transport activities 90 Sewage and refuse disposal, sanitation and similar activities Source: Experian, The Environmental Sector in London
Figure A4: Advanced Manufacturing
SIC Code Descriptor 2441 Manufacture of basic pharmaceuticals 2442 Manufacture of pharmaceutical preparations 3001 Manufacture of office machinery 3002 Manufacture of computers and other information processing equipment 3110 Manufacture of electric motors, generators and transformers 3120 Manufacture of electricity distribution and control apparatus 3162 Manufacture of other electrical equipment not elsewhere classified 3210 Manufacture of electronic valves and tubes and other electronic components 3220 Manufacture of television and radio transmitters and apparatus for line telephony and line tl h 3310 Manufacture of medical and surgical equipment and orthopaedic appliances
3320 Manufacture of instruments and appliances for measuring, checking, testing, navigating and other purposes except industrial process control equipment 3330 Manufacture of industrial process control equipment
3340 Manufacture of optical instruments and photographic equipment 3530 Manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft 7210 Hardware consultancy 7260 Other computer related activities Source: CLG, High Tech Industries
Figure A5: Creative industries
SIC Code Descriptor 7440 Advertising 7420 Architectural activities 5248 Other retail sale 5250 Retail sale 1821 Manufacture of workwear 1822 Manufacture of other outerwear 1823 Manufacture of underwear 1824 Manufacture of other wearing apparel nec 1930 Manufacture of footwear 7487 Other business activities nec (SIC 2003) 9211 Motion picture and video production 9212 Motion picture and video distribution 9213 Motion picture projection 7221 Software consultancy and supply 2214 Publishing of sound recordings 2231 Reproduction of sound recording 9231 Artistic and literary creation etc
9232 Operation of arts facilities 9234 Other entertainment activities nec 9272 Other recreational activities nec 2211 Publishing of books 2212 Publishing of newspapers 2213 Publishing of journals and periodicals 2215 Other publishing 9240 News agency activities 9220 Radio and television activities Source: DCMS
Additional charts – Specialisms
94 Health and care of the elderly The health sector is important to the East Sussex economy. All local authorities in the County have an above average concentration of health related activities. A number of health related sub-sectors also have high concentrations in East Sussex compared to England as a whole; these include hospital activities, medical and dental practice activities, and social work activities, with and without accommodation (ABI 2008).
The sector has a strong presence in Hastings and Eastbourne; both Hastings and Eastbourne have main hospitals serving the hinterland so health care activity is high in terms of employment and businesses in the sector. These areas also have a high concentration of social work activities with accommodation. Rother and Wealden also enjoy a high concentration of businesses in this sub-sector.
94 A sic code definition of these sectors is included in the Appendix.
Source: Experian, pH Group, August 2010
In light of the ageing population (see Section 6) the health sector will grow. Projections of output and employment also suggest growth in this sector.
There is also scope to develop high-value activities within the sector, such as telehealth and telecare, and enhance the experience of health and care to meet the new demands of an increasing ageing population.95 Growth in the health sector could also have knock-on effects on related sectors that supply goods and services to the industry. In particular, industries such as pharmaceuticals – a sector that has a small presence in the County but that could grow according to recent forecasts –, manufacturing of medical and precision instruments, and other business services are common suppliers to the health sector.96
95 Telehealth is the delivery of health-related services and information via telecommunications technologies. This is closely related to Telecare - a term given to offering remote care of elderly and vulnerable people, providing the care and reassurance needed to allow them to remain living in their own homes. There is already some application of this in the County. For more information see: Department of Health, Building Telecare in England , July 2005 96 ONS, Supply and Use Tables, 2004 – 2007 (consistent with UK National Accounts 2009 Blue Book) January 2010. This data is only available at UK level but gives an indication of industries typical supply chains.
Tourism97 East Sussex has a high concentration of employment in activities related to tourism and the visitor economy. The County boasts a number of tourist attractions as well as hospitality related businesses.
Although not strictly part of the tourism sectoral definition, creative, arts and entertainment activities and Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities are sub-sectors with a higher than average presence in Lewes and Wealden in the case of the latter (ABI 2008).98
Source: ABI 2008
Accommodation and food services activities are also linked to the visitor economy and have a high concentration in Rother, Wealden, and Eastbourne. These are also sectors that are expected to grow according to employment forecasts analysed in Section 2. Even if the sector is currently characterised by a large number of relatively low skills jobs, it offers a source of employment growth and the ability to increase sector value through higher skills that equated with demand for
97 This sector includes such activities as: Manufacture of caravans, hotels and motels with restaurant (licensed and unlicensed), youth hostels and mountain refuges, camping sites including caravans, holiday centres and villages, licensed clubs and restaurants. For a full definition please see Appendix A 98 Creative, arts and entertainment activities includes: performing arts, support activities for performing arts, artistic creation and operation of arts facilities. Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities includes: library and archive activities, library activities, archive activities, museum activities, operation of historic sites and buildings similar to visitor attractions and botanical and zoological gardens and nature reserve activities. For more information see: ONS, UK Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities 2007 (SIC 2007) – Structure and Explanatory notes, 2009
higher value products and services.
Source: ABI, 2008.
There is a particularly high concentration of tourist accommodation businesses in Hastings and Eastbourne. Notably, Eastbourne has a particularly high concentration of hotels and motels. There are a number of youth hostels and camping sites including caravan sites in Rother.
Source: Experian, pH Group, August 2010. Sic code definition included in the Appendix.
New trends within the tourism sector that could act as a driver of further growth, as well as a more detailed assessment of the County’s assets in this sector, are further explored in Section 4.1.
Further, an increased demand for holidays in the UK has been observed in recent years, with many families choosing to spend holidays within the UK post recession.
With regards to suppliers to these sectors, food manufacturing (including alcoholic beverages and meat processing, which do not currently have a large presence in the County) and other business services are large suppliers to this sector. In the case of the latter local supply chains including the sale of local produce could potentially be strengthened should the tourism sector develop further.
Other key sub-sectors relevant for future job creation
A1.g There are other sub-sectors that are highly concentrated in East Sussex compared to the country as a whole, notably construction of residential and non-residential buildings and other specialised construction activities which are highly prominent particularly in Rother and Wealden. In addition, there are a number of firms supplying to the sector which have developed in the area. For example civil engineering and architectural activities has a high presence in Lewes and Wealden.
A1.h Although hit by the recession these sub-sectors represent a significant proportion of the local economy. Further, according to Cambridge Econometrics estimates (presented in Section 1), these industries are forecast to continue growing between 2010 and 2020.
High-value added sectors Business Services
Whilst there is a marginally smaller concentration of business services businesses than the UK as a whole, there are a number of sub-sectoral specialisms in East Sussex. Notably, a significant amount of businesses are concentrated in Lewes, which enjoys a business services Location Quotient higher than 1.
According to ABI data, insurance, reinsurance and pension funding, and other professional, scientific and technical activities have a high presence in Rother and Wealden. In addition, Lewes has a high number of employee jobs in real estate activities.
Source: ABI 2008.
Forecasts suggest that this sector is expected to grow over the next decade, particularly in sectors such as professional services, other business services, and insurance. As such there are further opportunities to develop this sector, which includes high value added activities.
East Sussex also has a number of businesses in creative sub sectors. 99Most significantly, software consultancy and supply is highly represented across the County. In particular, Lewes, Hastings and Wealden have relatively high concentrations of these businesses. Advertising and architectural activities are also prominent in East Sussex.
Artistic and literary creation etc.100, a sub-sector likely to include sole traders/ lifestyle has a strong presence in East Sussex in particular in Hastings and Lewes. In addition, there are conference organisers and exhibition design and production companies around Eastbourne and Hailsham.
Source: Experian, pH Group, August 2010
Advanced Manufacturing and Engineering
East Sussex is home to some specialist manufacturing businesses. Notably, the sector has a high concentration of the manufacture of instruments and appliances for measuring. Over 2,000 people are employed in these two sub-sectors. The sector has a strong presence in Hastings, Lewes and Wealden.
99 This follows DCMS definition. Full SIC codes included in the Appendix. DCMS (2010) Technical Note. Available on http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http://www.culture.gov.uk/images/research/Creative_Industries_Economic_Estimates_2010 _technica__note.pdf 100 It includes production of live theatrical presentations, concerts and opera or dance productions and other stage productions: activities of groups or companies, orchestras or band and activities of individual artists such as actors, directors, musicians, stage set designers and builders, etc.
Source: ABI 2008.
In terms of by business units, Lewes has a higher than average concentration of advanced manufacturing companies compared to the UK as a whole. In other districts the concentration is broadly in line with the UK average.
Source: Experian, pH Group, August 2010
Although forecasts suggest some sub sectors of this sector could contract in the coming decade, they provide a source of high-value added activities that could potentially be developed further including by diversification.
Another emerging sub-sector related to advanced manufacturing and engineering that could develop in the future is that of the environmental sector. Caveats need to be made with respect to the definition used as it is often difficult to capture this sector with Standard Industrial Classification codes. Environmental enterprises are expected to develop considerably over the coming years.
Mosaic Groups definitions Group Type
A Residents of isolated rural A01 Rural families with high incomes, often from city communities jobs
A02 Retirees electing to settle in environmentally attractive localities
A03 Remote communities with poor access to public and commercial services
A04 Villagers with few well paid alternatives to agricultural employment
B Residents of small and mid-sized B05 Better off empty nesters in low density estates on towns with strong local roots town fringes
B06 Self-employed trades people living in smaller communities
B07 Empty nester owner occupiers making little use of public services
B08 Mixed communities with many single people in the centres of small towns
C Wealthy people living in the most C09 Successful older business leaders living in sought after neighbourhoods sought-after suburbs
C10 Wealthy families in substantial houses with little community involvement
C11 Creative professionals seeking involvement in local communities
C12 Residents in smart city centre flats who make little use of public services
D Successful professionals living in D13 Higher income older champions of village suburban or semi-rural homes communities
D14 Older people living in large houses in mature suburbs
D15 Well off commuters living in spacious houses in semi rural settings
D16 Higher income families concerned with education and careers
E Middle income families living in E17 Comfortably off suburban families weakly tied to moderate suburban semis their local community
E18 Industrial workers living comfortably in owner occupied semis
E19 Self reliant older families in suburban semis in industrial towns
E20 Upwardly mobile South Asian families living in inter war suburbs
E21 Middle aged families living in less fashionable inter war suburban semis
F Couples with young children in F22 Busy executives in town houses in dormitory comfortable modern housing settlements
F23 Early middle aged parents likely to be involved in their children's education
F24 Young parents new to their neighbourhood, keen to put down roots
F25 Personnel reliant on the Ministry of Defence for public services
Commuting flows from place of residence to place of work by District
Place of residence Place of work Eastbourne Hastings Lewes Rother Wealden Number % Number % Number % Number % Number %
Adur 0.19 0.07 0.87 0.06 0.2 71 24 357 21 129
Ashford 0.04 0.43 0.03 1.25 0.1 17 154 14 419 64 Brighton and 2.95 0.71 18.58 0.7 2.26 Hove 1,081 252 7,612 233 1,451
Crawley 0.91 0.52 2.53 0.48 2.22 335 185 1,036 159 1,427
Eastbourne 73.04 2.4 2.37 3.17 9.89 26,724 850 971 1,059 5,963
Hastings 1.71 70.56 0.26 14.67 0.91 624 24,983 105 4,898 582
Horsham 0.24 0.07 0.66 0.11 0.34 88 24 270 36 217
Lewes 3.77 0.81 57.43 1.01 4.47 1,381 288 23,527 338 2,873
Mid Sussex 0.85 0.29 5.08 0.42 3.87 310 101 2,080 140 2,488 Reigate and 0.15 0.09 0.35 0.14 0.52 Banstead 57 32 143 48 336
Rother 1.68 13.83 0.3 58.71 1.69 615 4,897 121 19,606 1,088
Sevenoaks 0.07 0.19 0.1 0.35 1.06 24 67 40 118 682
Shepway 0.01 0.21 0 0.54 0.02 6 74 3 179 12
Tandridge 0.11 0.06 0.14 0.07 0.65 42 21 59 23 417 Tonbridge 0.15 0.58 0.09 1.07 1.26 and Malling 55 204 37 356 809 Tunbridge 0.6 1.98 0.3 4.7 6.79 Wells 221 699 123 1,571 4,359
Wealden 8.94 2.01 3.92 4.14 54.77 3,272 711 1,607 1,383 35,174 South East, 1.13 1.45 1.84 2.21 1.95 other 413 515 755 738 1,255
East 0.22 0.24 0.26 0.37 0.33 80 85 105 125 210
E. Midlands 0.1 0.02 0.1 0.06 0.11 36 6 42 21 69
London 2.77 3.22 4.55 5.53 6.9 1,014 1,141 1,863 1,846 4,431
North East 0 0.02 0 0 0 3 6 3 - 3
North West 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.07 18 21 30 27 46
Scotland 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 15 12 13 12 27
Wales 0 0.02 0.02 0.04 0.03 3 6 12 12 18
W. Midlands 0.13 0.08 0.07 0.04 0.09 46 27 28 15 55
Y & H 0.1 0.06 0.02 0.03 0.05 36 21 9 9 34
Total 99.95 100 99.97 99.99 100.5 36,587 35,406 40,965 33,392 64,219 Source: 2001 Census adjusted by APS commuting flows 2010 (ONS)
A2. References
A2.a Although the national and regional policy context is undergoing significant change under the Coalition Government, below we provide a main summary of the different documents that have been consulted as part of the Local Economic Assessment process. Many of these documents, particularly those that set out strategy at the regional level were issued under the previous government and either have been or will be discontinued.
A2.b At national level, new documents of particular relevance to this Local Economic Assessment include BIS (2010), a model for sustainable and balanced growth, http://interactive.bis.gov.uk/comment/growth/ and The Rural Coalition (2010), The Rural Challenge: Achieving sustainable rural communities for the 21st century, the draft Localism Bill.
A2.c All of the following documents have relevance to the economy of East Sussex either in terms of driving the economy forward sustainably or in respect of worklessness and deprivation issues that emanate from an economy that is not yet performing to its full potential thereby presenting economic and social exclusion.
Regional Policy
Regional Economic Strategy (SEEDA 2006 – 2016): The Regional Economic Strategy will no longer apply with the abolition of SEEDA (March 2012)
A2.d The Strategy has three headline targets: Achieve an average annual increase in GVA per capita of at least 3%; Increase productivity per worker by an average 2.4% annually, from £39,000 in 2005 to at least £50,000 by 2016 (in constant prices); Reduce the rate of increase in the region’s ecological footprint (from 6.3 global hectares per capita in 2003, currently increasing at 1.1% per capita per annum), stabilise it and seek to reduce it by 2016.
A2.e The Strategy in support of this is structured around three interlinked objectives: Global Competitiveness; Smart Growth and; Sustainable Prosperity.
A2.f The RES also split the South East into three areas, two of which are pertinent to East Sussex:
A2.g The Coastal South East is characterised by unique environmental assets and a string of distinctive coastal cities and towns, yet it is an area which has seen continued economic and social decline.
A2.h The Rural South East accounts for 80% of the region’s land mass, a third of its business base and a quarter of its population. Whilst agricultural businesses are diversifying fast, increasing numbers of knowledge-based high value added businesses are attracted by the high quality of life.
South East Plan (2006 – 2026) NOTE: The SE Plan is set to be abolished by the Localism Bill
A2.i In July 2010 the South East Plan (SE Plan), which was the Government’s Regional Spatial Strategy for South East England, was revoked, and will be abolished through the Decentralisation and Localism Bill. The SE Plan had set out the amount of housing which each Borough and District Council was expected to deliver by 2026. However, the loss of the SE Plan has meant that all decision making powers on housing and planning have been returned to local councils, and these housing allocations are no longer prescriptive. This may affect the approach the respective local planning authorities take to house build in their area up to 2026. But the evidence to inform the regional plans is still valuable and can be used for other purposes, including this Local Economic Assessment.
A2.j The Plan included spatial policies for:
• The scale and distribution of new housing
• Priorities for new infrastructure and economic development
• The strategy for protecting countryside, biodiversity and the built and historic environment
• Tackling climate change and safeguarding natural resources, for example water and minerals
A2.k The Plan also incorporated the Regional Transport Strategy.
A2.l SCT5 set the housing distribution (to 2026):
Lewes Rother Wealden Eastbourne Hastings (part) (part) (part) Per annum 240 210 120 200 350 Total 4,800 4,200 3,400 4,000 7,000 Source: The South East Plan 2006-2026
Regional Skills Strategy will no longer apply with the abolition of SEEDA March 2012
A2.m The Regional Skills Strategy was to have a 20 year time horizon, focus on employer demand; set out specific skills investment priorities and the strategic skills capacity within the region.
Sub ‘Regional’ Policy
Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs)
A2.n In the summer 2010 local areas were invited to submit proposals to form Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEP). The East Sussex LEP bid ‘Enterprise - East Sussex’, in line with the Coalition Government’s pre-requisites, recognised the critical importance of the private sector in driving growth. On advice from government in respect of further thinking on the size of LEPs and their functions East Sussex is now part of the Essex, Thurrock, Southend - on - Sea, Kent and Medway LEP. The work plan for the LEP will reflect those areas where the LEP can add value and is likely to include: transport and infrastructure, skills, European Policy, growth sectors, broadband and barriers to business growth (e.g regulations ‘red tape’). Although not all the issues or opportunities identified in the LEA and EDS will be taken forward by the LEP as they will be more effectively dealt with at the local level, nevertheless both the LEA and EDS will be used to identify commonality of issue (and opportunity) that exist and have fit at the LEP level, and thereby feed into the LEP work plan, LEP Objectives and the development of LEP activity.
East Sussex County Council
A2.o The County Council promise says: We will, in partnership, make the best use of resources to: > help make East Sussex prosperous and safe > support the most vulnerable people > improve and develop roads and infrastructure > encourage personal and community responsibility > deliver the lowest possible council tax > be a voice for East Sussex, listening and answering to local people.
A2.p The County Council Plan clearly articulates the Economic Development Policy Steer as: “Raise the prosperity of East Sussex through a sharp focus on employment, skills and infrastructure”
Pride of Place: A Sustainable Community Strategy for East Sussex (2008 – 2026)
A2.q Pride of Place is the Sustainable Community Strategy for East Sussex. It sets out a long term vision for improving people’s quality of life and creating strong communities within and across East Sussex. It focuses on the issues and priorities that local people have told us they are most concerned about, like crime, housing, education, jobs and the
environment. It also sets out the key things to be tackled to achieve the vision. The task of developing this Sustainable Community Strategy was taken on by the six Local Strategic Partnerships (LSPs) in East Sussex, namely: East Sussex, Eastbourne, Hastings and St. Leonard’s, Lewes District, Rother and Wealden.
A2.r The Vision for the Strategy is: ‘to create places where everyone can prosper, be safe and healthy, and live in a high quality environment’. To achieve this, the main objectives are to create and sustain:
• A vibrant, diverse & sustainable economy
• Great places to live in, visit and enjoy, and
• Safe, healthy and fulfilling lives
A2.s The Chapters covered by Pride of Place along with the Strategic priority for the theme are: 1. The Economy, Jobs and Prosperity: Strategic priority for 2026 is to narrow the economic performance gap within and between communities in the county and between the county and the region, in order to develop a thriving, diverse and sustainable economy where everyone can prosper. 2. Transport, Access and Communications: Strategic priority for 2026 is to improve sustainable travel choices and access to services and facilities within and between communities in the county. 3. Housing: Strategic priority for 2026 is to provide affordable, good quality and environmentally friendly homes and housing for all. 4. Environment and Climate Change: Strategic priority for 2026 is to protect and enhance the natural and built environment for current and future generations, and enable individuals and organisations to tackle and adapt to climate change 5. Education, Learning and Skills: Strategic priority for 2026 is to provide high quality education, learning and skills development opportunities for all by building on good performance and improving poor performance. 6. Health and Wellbeing: Strategic priority for 2026 is to reduce health and care inequalities within and between communities and improve overall health and wellbeing 7. Community Safety: Strategic priority for 2026 is to build safe communities through targeted activity, particularly in high crime areas. 8. Community Strength and Leadership: Strategic priority for 2026 is to build strong, sustainable communities with effective and inclusive participation, representation and leadership 9. Culture, Sports and Leisure: Strategic priority for 2026 is to enable everyone to enjoy a wide range of cultural, sporting and leisure opportunities. 10. Older People: Strategic priority for 2026 is to support older people and carers to have a healthy, active and independent life. 11. Children and Young People: Strategic priority for 2026 is to ensure children and young people are well cared for, have healthy life styles, achieve their potential, and grow into confident, empowered, responsible adults able to contribute to the economic prosperity of the county.
A2.t Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 are the most directly pertinent to this Assessment and Strategy.
Homes & Communities Agency
A2.u The Homes and Communities Agency (HCA) is the national housing and regeneration delivery agency for England – it works nationally but also engages on a regional level. In the South East the HCA acknowledges the pressures from housing growth and economic success that sit alongside the need for regeneration in less advantaged areas. HCA activity and resources have been reviewed and reduced under the Coalition government.
East Sussex Local Transport Plan 3 (LTP3)
A2.v The emerging LTP3 will support the Sustainable Community Strategy for East Sussex, Pride of Place and the strategic objectives for the local economy, the health, safety and quality of life of the population of the county.
A2.w The LTP3 builds on the achievements and strategies in LTP2. It is however a longer term strategy covering the period 2011 to 2026. There is also a short term Implementation Plan detailing how the Strategy is to be delivered. Both documents will comprise LTP3 and were submitted to Government before April 2011.
A2.x The vision for LTP3 is: A2.y To make East Sussex a prosperous county where improved travel choices and maintenance and good management of our assets, deliver better access to jobs and services, safer, healthier, sustainable and inclusive communities, all set within a high quality environment. A2.z To help deliver this long term vision for LTP3 in East Sussex, a set of high level objectives have been defined which broadly align with the national transport goals and local policy objectives. A2.aa The high level objectives are to:
• Improve economic competitiveness and growth
• Tackle climate change
• Improve safety, health and security
• Provide sustainable transport opportunities to enhance social inclusion, and
• Improve quality of life.
East Sussex Adult Learning and Skills Strategy
A2.abThe East Sussex Adult Learning and Skills Partnership Board is responsible for taking the lead in establishing a county-wide vision, with strong underpinning values firmly driven by the needs of the county, in which all partners have a commitment to a broad scope of collaboration. Through consultation the Board has incorporated the views and contributions of a wide range of stakeholders, including businesses; voluntary and community organisations; learners and public sector bodies into the strategy.
A2.ac The Learning and Skills Strategy articulates the vision to enhance the well-being of East Sussex individuals, communities and businesses and to strengthen the future prosperity of the county by creating an environment that will support the achievement of full potential through learning and skills development. The Strategy sets out three strategic priorities:
I Recognise, support and celebrate the value of learning
II Ensure that business and community need is identified and met
III Provide leadership and ensure the infrastructure and intelligence to support the delivery of the vision
A2.ad An Action Plan sits under the Strategy.
East Sussex (Interim) Work & Skills Plan
A2.ae Under the previous government an Interim Work and Skills Plan was developed for East Sussex, originally to be developed into a full Work and Skills Plan the Coalition government has halted the need to produce a full version. The Interim Plan however sets out what needs to be delivered to achieve a reduction in worklessness and promote economic inclusion.
East Sussex 14-19 Plan
A2.af The vision of the 14-19 Partnership for the young people of East Sussex is that they will each have access to a broad range of innovative and exciting learning and training opportunities up to age 19. The 14-19 Plan outlines the strategy for young people’s education over the shorter term and overall goals to 2013 and beyond.
A2.ag The needs and aspirations of young people are central to the Plan. Their feedback informs the Partnership’s thinking about what works well in the current system and what can be improved. The Plan also analyses data on current levels of participation, and shows how each partner is performing against a range of targets.
A2.ah The document is organised according to the Partnership’s four priorities:
1. Reshaping the educational landscape 2. Creating a new curriculum 3. Supporting all young people 4. Developing the infrastructure
NEET reduction strategy
A2.ai The East Sussex NEET Reduction Strategy seeks to reduce the number of 16-18 year olds who are not in education, employment or training (NEET). The strategy has four work strands with a number of activities under each:
• providing a broader range of learning opportunities
• supporting transition and removing barriers
• identifying and developing learners’ capabilities, skills and attitudes
• careful tracking
Draft Raising the Participation Age (RPA) Strategy: Towards Implementation
A2.aj Under new government legalisation, all young people will be expected to take part in education, training or employment: until the age of 17 by 2013; until the age of 18 by 2015 This strategy outlines the key actions to be taken in implementing RPA in East Sussex. It is based on 5 main work strands: Administration; Communication; Commissioning; Support for Specific Young People; and Enforcement and Appropriateness.
East Sussex Children and Young Person’s Plan (CYPP)
A2.ak The CYPP is the joint strategy that sets out how partners will work together to improve the lives of children and young people. The Plan takes as its starting point the 5 Every Child Matters outcomes* for children and young people that relevant organisations and agencies are required to work together to achieve under the Children Act 2004. It builds on progress made so far through the first CYPP published in 2006 and highlights key shared priorities, and how resources will be used collectively to make a difference. There is a strong focus on supporting parents and carers so that they can help children to enjoy childhood, and develop into confident, empowered, responsible adults. (* Achieve Economic Wellbeing; Be Healthy; Stay Safe; Enjoy and Achieve; Make a Positive Contribution)
The East Sussex Local Area Agreement (2)
A2.al This has specific targets to reduce the percentage of people who are claiming out-of-work benefits and to increase the proportion of working age residents who hold a Level 2 qualification. There are other targets that strongly relate to this including improving the take up of childcare, improving access to services and facilities and reducing the proportion of young people who are Not in Education, Employment or Training. No further LAAs will be developed under the Coalition government.
East Sussex Child Poverty Assessment
A2.am The Child Poverty Act 2010 introduced new duties on upper tier local authorities and their named partner authorities to: 1. Cooperate to put in place arrangements to work to reduce, and mitigate the effects of, child poverty in their local area; > prepare and publish a local child poverty needs assessment to understand the drivers of child poverty in their local area and the characteristics of those living in poverty; and
> Prepare a joint child poverty strategy setting out measures that the local authority and each named partner propose to take to reduce, and mitigate the effects of, child poverty in their local area.
A2.an The National Strategy shows that more needs to be done to drive progress towards the 2020 vision to eradicate Child Poverty; the Child Poverty Act sets out four challenging UK-wide targets to be reached and sustained from 2020:
Relative poverty – to reduce the proportion of children who live in relative low income (in families with income below 60 per cent of the median) to less than ten per cent; Combined low income and material deprivation – to reduce the proportion of children who live in material deprivation and have a low income to less than 5 per cent; Persistent Poverty – to reduce the proportion of children that experience long periods of relative poverty, with the specific target to be set at a later date; and Absolute poverty – to reduce the proportion of children who live in absolute low income to less than 5 per cent A2.ao The assessment of the drivers of child poverty and their impact within the local area of relevance to this document includes:
• employment opportunities, adequacy of childcare, and education, training and skills levels and opportunities for parents, with a particular focus on parents with low-incomes.
• physical and mental health and emotional wellbeing, protection from harm and neglect, education, training and recreation, contribution made to them by society, social and economic well being.
• the role of housing, transport, policing, and other services provided by the local authority partner authorities, including those to improve the quality of the local environment, in contributing and mitigating the effects of child poverty.
A2.ap Some of themes map closely across to the themes that will need to be covered in a Local Economic Assessment, therefore the LEA will be able to underpin the analysis in the Child Poverty Needs Assessment, particularly around the nature of the local labour market, the changing economic conditions and employer demand for skills, existing skills levels and the match to local demand, worklessness, housing and transport.
ESCC Climate Change Strategy
A2.aq The aim of the East Sussex Climate Change Strategy is to promote the prosperity and well being of the community by reducing green house gas emissions and adapting to climate change, and to enable individual and organisations to tackle and adapt to climate change.
Local Development Frameworks and Local Strategy
A2.ar The Local Development Framework (LDF) is the name given to a system of Development Plans (spatial planning frameworks) introduced by the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004. The Local Development Frameworks are gradually replacing existing Development Plans (county level ‘Structure’ and Local Plans). Each Framework is in the form of a ‘folder’ containing a number of inter-related documents:
A2.as Compulsory Documents: Local Development Documents; Development Plan Documents; Statements of Community Involvement; Annual Monitoring Report; Local Development Scheme
A2.at Examples of Optional Documents: Supplementary Planning Documents; Local Development Orders; Simplified Planning Zones
A2.au Each district in East Sussex has developed an LDF pertinent to its area, some areas e.g. Hastings and Rother have worked closely together on some aspects e.g. employment land. The findings from the local LDFs, in particular the (draft) Core Strategies have fed into this document; the individual LDFs are not detailed separately here but the information used from the relevant chapters, including housing.
A2.av In addition, local sustainable community strategies and economic development strategies have also been consulted.
A2.aw The Coalition Government plans to overhaul the planning process as partly outlined in the (draft) Localism Bill, including putting more responsibility for local area decisions within local communities (although these would still need to sit under the LDFs) and the National Infrastructure Plan.
Freight Strategy
A2.ax The existing Freight Strategy was adopted in 2004. A draft revised Freight Strategy consultation took place October 2010 and will now be incorporated into LTP3. Freight enables people to access a wider range of goods and services, which is of benefit to the economy of East Sussex. This has been used to inform the sections on Transport in this document.
A3. Consultation process
A3.a Two stakeholder workshops were held to feed into the Local Economic Assessment and EDS process. In addition consultations with each of the districts, the East Sussex Strategic Partnership, and Locate East Sussex were undertaken. We thank all those involved for their contribution to the Local Economic Assessment. Business workshop – 29th July, Eastbourne
Name Organisation Claire Onslow Lewes District Council
Ray Mason Edeal Kerry Kyriacou Business Link Mike Cogswell Locate East Sussex
Sarah Pearce Wave Leisure
Graham Marley 1066 Enterprise John Hodges Hastings Area Chamber of Commerce Peter Archer Federation of Small Businesses
John Tolley Heathfield Partnership
Derek Godfrey Eastbourne District Chamber of Commerce Kevin Nicholson Sea Space
Mark Froud* Sussex Enterprise
*Could not attend but sent written input.
Stakeholder workshop – 11th August, Lewes
Name Organisation Rachel Philpott NCDA Ltd
John Hodges Alliance/Hasting Chamber of Commerce Philip Britton Skills Funding Agency Simon Hickmott East Sussex County Council
Andrew Palmer Hasting Borough Council
Ken Stevens FSB
Sarah Pascoe Wealden District Council
Hamish Monro WARR/Locate East Sussex
Rose Miller Sussex Downs College Robert Allison University of Sussex Toyin Higgs Connexions
Kerry Kyriakou Business Link South East
Nicky Easton Peacehaven Chamber of Commerce
Jeff Collard Eastbourne Borough Council
Hilary Lane East Sussex Arts Partnership
Brian Butterworth East Sussex County Council
Peter Archer FSB
Jon Wheeler East Sussex County Council Stuart Derwent CPRE Stephen Tredidgo Babcock Enterprises
Paul Hoppen Lewes District Council
Sue Middlehurst Sussex Coast College Hastings
Martin Fisher Rother Voluntary Action
Tricia Mitchell Sussex Deaf Association
John Tolley The Heathfield Partnership Trust Ltd
Katy Thomas East Sussex County Council
Laura Williams Development Manager
Helen Joslin-Allen East Sussex County Council Amy Newnham East Sussex County Council Colin Monk University of Brighton
Penny Shearer Eastbourne Borough Council
Phil Jones East Sussex Innovation and Growth
Lucy Knott Lewes District Council
Don Cranfield Plumpton College
Julie Eason East Sussex Advice Plus John Shaw Sea Space Sally Harper Active Sussex
Janet Thacker Jobcentre Plus, Surrey and Sussex District
Gill Cameron-Waller Wealden District Council & Local Strategic Partnership Shelagh Powell East Sussex County Council
Adam Chugg 3VA
Graham Burgess Rother District Council Captain Francois Jean Newhaven Port and Properties Christine Jervis Adult College for Rural East Sussex
Graham Arr-Jones East Sussex County Council
Theresa Pollard Tomorrow’s People
Lisa Schrevel ESSP
Monica Adams-Acton Hasting Borough Council
Viki Faulkner Sussex Learning Network
Councillor Rupert Simmons East Sussex County Council Bernadette McGuigan Wealden District Council
Sheila Madock U3A
Tony Mernagh Brighton and Hove Business Forum
Mike Cogswell Locate East Sussex
Chief Supt. Robin Smith East Sussex Police
Kieran McNamara East Sussex County Council
Individual Consultations
Name Organisation Penny Shearer Eastbourne Borough Council
Monica Adams-Acton Hastings Borough Council & Simon Hubbard Paul Hoppen Lewes District Council Graham Burgess Rother District Council
Bernadette McGuigan Wealden District Council
Mike Cogswell Locate East Sussex
Jeremy Legget East Sussex Strategic Partnership
Internal and external reference groups
Economic Assessment Internal Reference Group Name Organisation Amy Newnham Business and Project Assistant
Bryan Butterworth Research and Information Team Manager Helen Joslin-Allen Principal Planning Research Officer Jon Wheeler Transport Policy Team manager
Katy Thomas Economic Development Manager
Mike Langthorne Strategic Planning Policy Team Manager
Stephen Potter Environmental Strategist
Shelagh Powell Senior Economic Development Manager
Lisa Schrevel Partnership Development Manager (ESSP)
Local Economic Assessment External Reference Group
Name Organisation Graham Burgess Head of Regeneration, Rother District Council
Monica Adams-Acton Head of Regeneration & Community Services, Hastings Borough Council Paul Hoppen Assistant Director (Strategy and Regeneration), Lewes District Council
Penny Shearer Economic Development Manager, Eastbourne Borough Council Sarah Pascoe Economic Development & Tourism Manager, Wealden District Council
Shelagh Powell Senior Economic Development Manager, East Sussex County Council
Appendix B Local Authority District Individual Summaries
Local Authority District Summary
Local Authority District
Individual Summary
Eastbourne
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Local Authority District Summary
Three key challenges for Eastbourne
• An important challenge is to attract and retain high growth businesses that provide highly skilled jobs. Linked to this is the need for a county-wide view on employment land needs. • Business support is paramount with the demise of SEEDA and regional Business Link. There is a need to identify where specialised % focussed support for start-ups will come from. • Focus on the future direction of the area. There is a need to diversify the economy away from the reliance on lower value tourism & hospitality and care services. 101
The economy, business and enterprise102
• Annual GVA growth (2000-2010) in Eastbourne has traditionally been higher than regional and national averages.
• Historically, employment growth in the LAD has been higher than regional and national benchmarks.
• Productivity growth in Eastbourne has been broadly in line (albeit slightly lower) with County, regional and national averages.
• The public sector is a major sector in Eastbourne accounting for 29% of output and 39% of employment.
• Distribution, hotels etc and Financial, Business and Other Market Services are also major sectors.
Figure 1: GVA, employment and productivity growth over time Annual % change 2000-2010 2010-2020 2008 2009 2010
GVA growth Eastbourne 2.3% 2.8% -1.3% -3.5% 1.7% East Sussex 1.6% 2.4% 0.3% -4.4% 1.1% South East 1.8% 2.6% 1.0% -4.8% 1.3% UK 1.8% 2.3% 0.7% -4.7% 1.3% Employment Eastbourne 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% -1.3% -0.8% East Sussex 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% -2.0% -1.1% South East 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% -2.6% -1.4% UK 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% -2.1% -1.5% Productivity Eastbourne 1.3% 3.1% -1.4% -2.6% 2.6% East Sussex 1.5% 3.4% -0.7% -2.9% 2.7% South East 1.3% 3.6% -0.5% -2.7% 3.0% UK 1.2% 3.5% 0.1% -3.0% 3.0% Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
101 Challenges sourced from consultations with stakeholders. 102 Note that figures in this section are sourced from Cambridge Econometrics, 2010. The public sector is captured using ABI SIC codes definition. It is important to note that the latter can overestimate the size of the sector since the education and health sector may include private sector businesses as well. Recently released BIS datasets have been quoted in Section 1.
© Experian Plc 2010
Local Authority District Summary
Figure 2: GVA and employment by broad sector 100%
90% 20.8% 29.9% 80%
70%
60% 33.8% 31.8% 50%
40%
30% 16.1% 21.6% 20%
10%
0% Eastbourne GVA UK GVA
100%
90% 27.1% 80% 39.3%
70%
60% 26.8% 50% 18.8%
40%
30% 21.9% 28.6% 20%
10%
0% Eastbourne Employment UK Employment
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Local Authority District Summary
Business and enterprise
• The business birth rate is low in Eastbourne compared to county, regional and national averages.
Figure 3: Business births in 2008 and 2009
20.0%
% Born Since 2008 % Born Since 2009
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0% UK South East East Sussex Eastbourne
Source: Experian pH Group data, August 2010
• East Sussex has a small amount of large companies. Only 9 companies have over 200 employees in Eastbourne.
People and community
• Eastbourne has a working age population of 54,000, 12% (6,700) of whom are workless and 14% (7,800) of whom are claiming out of work benefits (DWP). Eastbourne JSA claimants were 2,431 in March 2009 and 2,903 in August 2010. • Although the workless population has remained fairly stable since 2005/06, there has been an increase of around 1,000 out of work benefit claimants over the recent period. This has been driven by an increase in the number of JSA claimants as a result of the recession. • In common with other parts of East Sussex, more than half of out of work benefit claimants are claiming Incapacity Benefit or Employment Support Assistance. • At 28%, Eastbourne has amongst the highest proportion of working age residents who are qualified to Level 4 in the County and at 8% has amongst the lowest proportion of unqualified residents.
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Local Authority District Summary
• Eastbourne has five LSOAs that rank amongst the 10% most employment deprived in England, with a further eight falling amongst the 20% most deprived nationally in this domain.103
• The economic inactivity rate in Eastbourne is lower than the UK average, however greater than the county and regional averages.
Place • Employment land is relatively cheap in Eastbourne other than retail land. Retail land is on average £105 per m² (compared to a £93 per m² East Sussex average). Office space is £58 per m² (compared to a £62 per m² East Sussex average) and factory space is £33 per m² (compared to a £35 per m² East Sussex average). • Average house prices are above the county and national averages.104 • Within Eastbourne, 48% of local respondents prioritised activities for teenagers as the most important issue which would improve the local area, above the issues of job prospects, wage levels and local costs of living and public transport.105
Interim Work & Skills Plan 2010: Eastbourne
Supply-Side Factors
• Eastbourne has a working age population of 54,000, 12% (6,700) of whom are workless and 14% (7,800) of whom are claiming out of work benefits;
• Although the workless population has remained fairly stable since 2005/06, there has been an increase of around 1,000 out of work benefit claimants over the period. This has been driven by an increase in the number of JSA claimants as a result of the recession;
• In common with other parts of East Sussex, more than half of out of work benefit claimants are claiming Incapacity Benefit or Employment Support Assistance;
• At 28%, Eastbourne has amongst the highest proportion of working age residents who are qualified to Level 4 and at 8% has amongst the lowest proportion of unqualified residents;
• Eastbourne has five LSOAs that rank amongst the 10% most employment deprived in England, with a further eight falling amongst the 20% most deprived nationally in this domain.106
Demand-Side Factors
• There are 42,000 Eastbourne residents in work, similar to the number in work in 2005/06. There has been a significant increase in the number of people employed as managers and senior officials and in sales and customer service occupations, but a reduction in the number of people working in administrative occupations;
• Work-place based earnings are the highest in the county, while residence-based earnings are around 90% of the regional average107;
103 Employment deprivation in East Sussex in 2010, ESiF 104 Land Registry (Quarter 1 2010) Average price of a semi-detached house 105 Ibid. 106 Employment deprivation in East Sussex in 2010, ESiF
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Local Authority District Summary
• In June 2009, there were 2,200 JSA claimants looking for work, but just 350 jobs advertised at Jobcentre Plus offices – 6 JSA claimants per job. For people who previously worked in skilled trades and as process, plant and machine operatives, this reaches 16 claimants per advertised job;
• Even if only one third of all jobs are advertised in Jobcentre Plus offices and even if only half of the 6,500 workless population who wanted a job could realistically take one, this would still leave a shortfall of around 2,300 jobs;
• Eastbourne has key local employment strengths in the hotels & restaurants sector and in public services, both of which can provide flexible forms of employment and will demand high levels of customer service skills.
Job Creation • Business density levels in Eastbourne are low, but this may reflect higher levels of employment in larger businesses than in some other parts of East Sussex;
• There are relatively high levels of self-employment, but the ‘self contained’ nature of the Eastbourne economy may mean that prospects of businesses serving wider markets may be limited;
• Recent changes in employment have seen a growth in jobs in the health & social work sector. It is not clear how this will be affected by future public spending constraints.
Institutional Factors
• The average price of a semi-detached house in Eastbourne was £220,595 in Quarter 1 2010. This is 7.2 times the mean earnings of Eastbourne workers, which makes it one of the more affordable parts of East Sussex108;
• Nearly a third of households have no access to a car, so good quality public transport is likely to be important to tackling worklessness and improving labour market mobility;
• There are around 1,000 economically inactive residents who would like a job but are not looking because they are looking after a family and a similar number of lone parents who are claiming out of work benefits.
Key Issues for Eastbourne
• There are insufficient jobs in Eastbourne to absorb the workless population, even if they had the right skills levels, so there needs to be some emphasis on job generation;
107 ONS (2010) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, average median full-time earnings 108 Land Registry (Quarter 1 2010) Average price of a semi-detached house Ratio calculated using ONS (2010) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, average mean male full-time earnings
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Local Authority District Summary
• Eastbourne has a fairly self-contained economy, which may make it difficult to generate high paying jobs or support businesses that can sustain levels of turnover that will result in the creation of new jobs, unless they are encouraged to broaden their markets;
• It is strongly reliant on public sector employment, which has been a key source of recent employment growth that is unlikely to be easy to sustain in a tighter public spending environment;
• Good public transport is likely to be important because a third of all households do not have access to a car and because Eastbourne may benefit from residents who are then able to access better paying jobs elsewhere;
• Eastbourne’s residents are generally reasonably well-qualified by East Sussex standards and it is relatively affordable, so it will be important to try to retain (and attract new talent) to improve the levels of higher value-added economic activity in the Borough;
• Poor health may be as much a barrier to employment as skills or education for many people, which needs to be considered when identifying effective solutions to worklessness. Nearly half (43%) of the 3,700 Incapacity Benefit or Employment Support claimants have a behavioural or mental disorder.
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Local Authority District Summary Local Authority District
Individual Summary
Hastings
© Experian Plc 2010
Local Authority District Summary
Three key challenges for Hastings
• Hastings has the highest levels of employment deprivation in the county and many of the jobs that do exist are low paid.
• Like other parts of East Sussex, the current volume of jobs is insufficient to make a noticeable reduction to the levels of worklessness; there is a major need for quality private sector job creation.
• The poorer access to other major employment centres is likely to mean that it is difficult to bring new investment into the Borough allaying this. Hastings also has lower levels of entrepreneurship; pre start up and start up business support is important.
The economy, business and enterprise
• Annual GVA growth in Hastings has traditionally been in line with regional and national averages (2000-2010).
• Historically, employment growth in the LAD has been lower than regional and national benchmarks (2000-2010).
• Productivity growth in Hastings exceeds county, regional and national averages (2000-2010).
• The public sector is a major sector in Hastings accounting for 32% of output and 43% of employment. Distribution, hotels etc and Financial, Business and Other Market Services also have a strong presence in the district.
Figure 1: GVA, employment and productivity growth over time Annual % change 2000-2010 2010-2020 2008 2009 2010
GVA growth Hastings 1.8% 2.4% -1.2% -4.1% 1.4% East Sussex 1.6% 2.4% 0.3% -4.4% 1.1% South East 1.8% 2.6% 1.0% -4.8% 1.3% UK 1.8% 2.3% 0.7% -4.7% 1.3% Employment Hastings 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% -1.5% -1.0% East Sussex 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% -2.0% -1.1% South East 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% -2.6% -1.4% UK 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% -2.1% -1.5% Productivity Hastings 1.7% 3.1% -0.7% -2.5% 2.7% East Sussex 1.5% 3.4% -0.7% -2.9% 2.7% South East 1.3% 3.6% -0.5% -2.7% 3.0% UK 1.2% 3.5% 0.1% -3.0% 3.0% Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
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Local Authority District Summary
Figure 2: GVA and employment by broad sector 100% 90%
80% 32.0% 20.8% 70% 60% 50% 40% 33.8% 28.4% 30% 20% 16.1% 10% 16.8% 0% Hastings GVA UK GVA 100%
90%
80% 27.1% 43.1% 70%
60%
50% 26.8% 40% 16.3% 30%
20% 21.9% 22.7% 10%
0% Hastings Employment UK Employment
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Local Authority District Summary
Business and enterprise
• The business birth rate is low in Hastings compared to County, regional and national averages.
Figure 3: Business births in 2008 and 2009
20% % Born Since 2008 % Born Since 2009 18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% UK South East East Sussex Hastings
Source: Experian pH Group data, August 2010 East Sussex has only a small number of large companies. Only 7 companies have over 200 employees in Hastings.
People and community
• Hastings has a working age population of 51,000, 16% (8,300) of whom are workless and 20% (10,500) of whom are claiming out of work benefits.
• There has been a modest increase in the workless population since 2005/06 (400) and a more substantial increase of around 1,300 out of work benefit claimants over the period. This has been driven by an increase in JSA claimants as a result of the recession. In common with other parts of East Sussex, more than half of out of work benefit claimants are claiming Incapacity Benefit or Employment Support Assistance.
• At 23%, Hastings has among the lowest proportion of working age residents who are qualified to Level 4, but there is a high proportion of residents (21%) who hold Level 3.
• In June 2009, there were 3,000 JSA claimants looking for work, but just 470 jobs advertised at Jobcentre Plus offices – 6 JSA claimants per job. For people who previously worked in skilled trade occupations, this reaches 21 claimants per advertised job and for process, plant and machine operatives, it reaches 49 claimants per advertised job.
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Local Authority District Summary
• Hastings economic inactivity rate is lower than the national, regional and county averages. Hastings also has the lowest economic inactivity rate when compared to the other LAD’s.
Place • Employment land is relatively cheap in Hastings. Retail land is on average £84 per m² (compared to a £93 per m² East Sussex average). Office space is £40 per m² (compared to a £62 per m² East Sussex average) and factory space is £30 per m² (compared to a £35 per m² East Sussex average). Average house prices are below the county average.
• Within Hastings, 44% of local respondents prioritised crime levels as the most important issue which would improve the local area. Level of crime was of greater importance than the issues of job prospects, wage levels and local costs of living and public transport and activities for teenagers.109
Interim Work & Skills Plan 2010: Hastings
Supply-Side Factors
• Hastings has a working age population of 51,000, 16% (8,300) of whom are workless and 20% (10,500) of whom are claiming out of work benefits;
• There has been a modest increase in the workless population since 2005/06 (+400) and a more substantial increase of around 1,300 out of work benefit claimants over the period. This has been driven by an increase in JSA claimants as a result of the recession;
• In common with other parts of East Sussex, more than half of out of work benefit claimants are claiming Incapacity Benefit or Employment Support Assistance; · At 23%, Hastings has amongst the lowest proportion of working age residents who are qualified to Level 4, but there is a high proportion of residents (21%) who hold Level 3 qualifications;
• Hastings is the most employment deprived district in East Sussex, with 17 LSOA’s ranking amongst the 10% most deprived in England for this domain.110
Demand-Side Factors
• There are 41,000 Hastings residents in work, around 1,000 more than in 2005/6.
• There has been a significant increase in the number of people employed in sales and customer service occupations (+1,700) and skilled trades (+2,000), but a reduction in the number of people working in higher level occupations, such as managers and professionals;
• Both residence-based and workplace earnings are slightly less than four-fifths of the regional median111. This suggests that not only are local jobs not well-paid, but that there may be limited opportunities for higher skilled Hastings residents to commute to out to find better paid work;
• In June 2009, there were 3,000 JSA claimants looking for work, but just 470 jobs advertised at Jobcentre Plus offices – 6 JSA claimants per job. For people who previously worked in skilled trade occupations, this reaches 21 claimants per advertised job and for process, plant and machine operatives, it reaches 49 claimants per advertised job;
• Even if only one third of all jobs are advertised in Jobcentre Plus offices and even if only half of the workless population wanted a job, this would still leave a shortfall of around 2,700 jobs;
109 Interim East Sussex Work and Skills Plan, 2010 110 ONS (2010) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, average median full-time earnings 111 ONS (2010) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, average median full-time earnings
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Local Authority District Summary
• Hastings has key local employment strengths in manufacturing and public services, both of which may be particularly vulnerable to job losses as a result of the recession and subsequent public expenditure constraints.
Job Creation
• Business density levels in Hastings and levels of self-employment are comparatively low, but the low levels of income in the district may make it difficult for businesses to generate sufficient income from local markets alone;
• Pre-recession changes in employment have seen a growth in jobs in the construction sector and in other personal services. The construction sector has been hit hard by the recession, which is evidenced by the high number of JSA claimants with skilled trade backgrounds, compared with the number of suitable job vacancies.
Institutional Factors
• The average price of a semi-detached house in Hastings was £182,089 in Quarter 1 2010. This is 6.5 times the mean earnings of Hastings workers, which makes it the most affordable district in East Sussex112. However, the low house prices may make it difficult for Hastings residents to move to more expensive employment centres;
• A third of households have no access to a car, so good quality public transport is likely to be important to tackling worklessness and improving labour market mobility;
• There are around 900 economically inactive residents who would like a job but are not looking because they are looking after a family and there are 1,600 lone parents who are claiming out of work benefits.
Key Issues for Hastings
• Hastings has high levels of employment deprivation and many of the jobs that do exist are generally low paid. It may have suffered particularly from the recession due to the strong profile of manufacturing and this is reflected in the difficulties that people with manual trade backgrounds are having in finding work;
• Like other parts of East Sussex, the volume of jobs is insufficient to make significant reductions to the levels of worklessness, and the poor access to other employment centres may mean that it is difficult to bring new money into the Borough;
• Hastings has lower levels of entrepreneurship and it may be difficult for locally serving businesses to develop high enough levels of turnover to support job creation without them being encouraged to extend their markets;
• Whilst level 4 skill levels are lower than in some other parts of East Sussex, Hastings has a high proportion of residents with intermediate level skills.
• As in other areas, poor health, particularly relating to mental health may be an even more significant barrier to employment than low skills in some parts of Hastings.
112 Land Registry (Quarter 1 2010) Average price of a semi-detached house Ratio calculated using ONS (2010), Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, average mean male full-time earnings.
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Local Authority District Summary Local Authority District
Individual Summary Lewes
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Local Authority District Summary
Three key challenges for Lewes
• The regeneration of Newhaven will be an important step in the future of Lewes District. A “Physical Vision for Newhaven” was based on the pre-recession assumption that there would be delivery vehicle in place to implement the findings. The report identified a required £60m of funding.
• Lewes town has a high concentration of public sector employment. Re-balancing will therefore be an issue given the high concentration of public sector employees. • Rural development is a key issue. There have been many rural shop closures and increasing rural deprivation; many people think that the county is wholly affluent. There has been some good work – e.g. LEADER has brought in £180,000 of funding to the rural businesses helping projects including the creation of a farm shop, purchase of machinery for a vineyard, expansion of a livery and significant improvements to a village hall.
The economy, business and enterprise
• Annual GVA growth in Lewes District has traditionally been less than regional and national averages (2000-2010).
• Historically, employment growth (2000-2010) has been lower than regional and national benchmarks.
• Productivity growth (2000-2010) in Lewes District is in line with the national average but lower than the regional and county averages.
• Financial, Business and Other Market Services is a major sector in Lewes accounting for 36% of output and employment. The public sector also has a strong presence in Lewes.
Figure 1: GVA, employment and productivity over time Annual % change 2000-2010 2010-2020 2008 2009 2010
GVA growth Lewes District 0.7% 2.4% -1.7% -5.3% 1.2% East Sussex 1.6% 2.4% 0.3% -4.4% 1.1% South East 1.8% 2.6% 1.0% -4.8% 1.3% UK 1.8% 2.3% 0.7% -4.7% 1.3% Employment growth Lewes 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% -2.2% -1.1% East Sussex 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% -2.0% -1.1% South East 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% -2.6% -1.4% UK 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% -2.1% -1.5% Productivity Lewes 1.2% 3.6% -0.2% -3.1% 2.7% East Sussex 1.5% 3.4% -0.7% -2.9% 2.7% South East 1.3% 3.6% -0.5% -2.7% 3.0% UK 1.2% 3.5% 0.1% -3.0% 3.0% Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
Figure 2: GVA and employment by broad sector
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Local Authority District Summary
100%
90%
80% 25.1% 20.8%
70%
60%
50%
40% 36.2% 33.8%
30%
20% 14.1% 16.1% 10%
0% Lewes District GVA UK GVA
100%
90%
80% 35.19% 27.1% 70%
60%
50% 26.8% 40% 21.89%
30%
20% 19.84% 21.9% 10%
0% Lewes District Employment UK Employment
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Local Authority District Summary
Business and enterprise
• The business birth rate is low in Lewes compared to county, regional and national averages.
Figure 3: Business births in 2008 and 2009
20% % Born Since 2008 % Born Since 2009 18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% UK South East East Sussex Lewes Source: Experian pH Group data, August 2010 East Sussex has only a small amount of large companies, and only 8 companies have over 200 employees in Lewes.
People and community
• Lewes District has a working age population of 52,000, 9% (4,600) of whom are workless and 11% (5,500) of whom are claiming out of work benefits;
• Although the workless population has remained fairly stable since 2005/06, there has been an increase of around 800 out of work benefit claimants over the period. This has been driven by an increase in JSA claimants as a result of the recession;
• In common with other parts of East Sussex, more than half of out of work benefit claimants are claiming Incapacity Benefit or Employment Support Assistance;
• At 29%, Lewes District, has the highest proportion of working age residents who are qualified to Level 4. However, Lewes also has a large proportion of lower and unqualified residents, suggesting that the local labour market might be polarised.
• Lewes District is amongst the least employment deprived districts in East Sussex; with no SOAs in the top 20% most employment deprived SOAs in England. Notwithstanding this, there are recognised employment challenges in some parts of the district, such as Newhaven. The
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Local Authority District Summary
most deprived LSOA in the District is in Peacehaven, which ranks amongst the 30% most deprived in England113.
Place • Employment land is relatively expensive in Lewes District. Retail land is on average £96 per m² (compared to a £93 per m² East Sussex average). Office space is £89 per m² (compared to a £62 per m² East Sussex average) and factory space is £33 per m² (compared to a £39 per m² East Sussex average).114
• Average house prices are above the national, but below the county and national averages115.
• Within Lewes District, 51.2% of local respondents prioritised activities for teenagers as the most important issue that would improve the local area. Activities for teenagers were of greater importance than the issues of job prospects, wage levels and local costs of living and public transport.116
• There is a potential challenge in the form of possible planning constraints to future economic growth in the district (55% lies in the South Downs National Park). Flood risks could also limit the supply of employment and housing sites.
Interim Work & Skills Plan 2010: Lewes
Supply-Side Factors
• Lewes has a working age population of 52,000, 9% (4,600) of whom are workless and 11% (5,500) of whom are claiming out of work benefits;
• Although the workless population has remained fairly stable since 2005/06, there has been an increase of around 800 out of work benefit claimants over the period. This has been driven by an increase in JSA claimants as a result of the recession;
• In common with other parts of East Sussex, more than half of out of work benefit claimants are claiming Incapacity Benefit or Employment Support Assistance;
• At 29%, Lewes, has the highest proportion of working age residents who are qualified to Level 4. However, Lewes also has a large proportion of lower and unqualified residents, suggesting that the local labour market might be quite bifurcated;
• Lewes is amongst the least employment deprived districts in East Sussex; with no SOAs in the top 20% most employment deprived SOAs in England. Notwithstanding this, there are recognised employment challenges in some parts of the district, such as Newhaven. The most deprived LSOA in the District is in Peacehaven, which ranks amongst the 30% most deprived in England117.
• There are 46,500 Lewes residents in work, around 2,700 more than in 2005/6. There has been a significant increase in the number of people employed in elementary occupations (+2,300); skilled trades (+1,900) and personal service occupations (+1,900), but a reduction in the number of people working in administrative and secretarial occupations (-3,100);
113 Deprivation in Lewes in 2010, ESiF 114 Source: ONS 2009 (2008 Values) 115 Land Registry (Quarter 1 2010) Average price of a semi-detached house 116 Interim East Sussex Work and Skills Plan, 2010 117 Deprivation in Lewes in 2010, ESiF
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Local Authority District Summary
• Both median workplace (88%) and residence-based (94%) full-time earnings are nearer to those of the South East than most other parts of East Sussex118. The relatively high earnings of Lewes residents may reflect its closer proximity to key employment centres, such as Crawley, Brighton & Hove and London;
• In June 2009, there were 1,600 JSA claimants looking for work, but just 280 jobs advertised at Jobcentre Plus offices – 6 JSA claimants per job. For people who previously worked as process, plant and machine operatives, it reaches 26 claimants per advertised job;
• Even if only one third of all jobs are advertised in Jobcentre Plus offices and even if only half of the workless population wanted a job, this would still leave a shortfall of around 1,500 jobs;
• Lewes has key local employment strengths in manufacturing, construction and public services. These sectors may be particularly vulnerable to job losses as a result of the recession and subsequent public expenditure constraints.
Job Creation
• Business density levels in Lewes and levels of self-employment are quite high, which suggests a reasonable level of local entrepreneurship in the district;
• Pre-recession changes in employment have seen a growth in jobs in business services, in particular, perhaps reflecting a growing entrepreneurial strength in Lewes
• Its close proximity to Sussex’s two universities and its higher qualified resident population provide it with opportunities to support the growth of innovative businesses.
• The manufacturing sector is mentioned as an employment strength, although it possibly needs to be recognised that this sector had the biggest level of job losses between 1998 and 2008 out of all employment sectors in the district. The Lewes EELA (Employment and Economic Land Assessment) also identified the business services and IT sector, as well as the retail sector, as having significant levels of employment, much more so than the construction sector.
Institutional Factors
• The average price of a semi-detached house in Lewes was £212,367 in Quarter 1 2010. This is 7.3 times the mean earnings of Lewes workers, which is slightly more affordable than the county average (7.7), but more affordable than the regional and national averages119. Even still, there are risks that lower earning households may have to move to more affordable areas, perhaps adding to commuter traffic congestion;
• Public transport and accessibility are generally seen to be less of a problem in Lewes than in other parts of East Sussex, perhaps due to its good links to employment centres outside the district;
• Lewes has a large number of inactive residents who would like to work, but are not looking for jobs because they are looking after a family (1,600). There are also around 750 lone parents who are claiming out of work benefits.
Key Issues for Lewes
118 ONS (2010) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 119 Land Registry (Quarter 1 2010), Average price of a semi-detached house Ratio calculated using ONS (2010), Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, average mean male full-time earnings.
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Local Authority District Summary
• Lewes is amongst the least employment deprived districts in East Sussex. It has high levels of employment, relatively well-paying jobs and good access to employment centres elsewhere by East Sussex standards;
• The job deficit in Lewes is not so great as in many other districts in the county;
• Whilst higher earning residents bring wealth into the district, creating new jobs, there is a risk that these jobs are at the lower end of the labour market. There are still large numbers of residents in the district with low or intermediate level skills and recent employment growth appears to have been mainly in lower level occupations, rather than higher value added jobs. This is supported by the fact that increases in residents’ earnings have significantly outstripped the increases in workers’ earnings over the past five years;
• Lewes risks developing a dual economy, where relatively affluent residents who commute out to work are supported by large numbers of people in low-paying service sector occupations, who are unable to buy homes in the district;
• This could result in increasing churn and casual jobs at the lower end of the labour market unless, with lower skilled people also having to commute in to work from more affordable areas to the north, effective pathways are developed to enable people to progress through the labour market;
• There may be opportunities to further encourage higher level entrepreneurship in Lewes, linking with the universities and capitalising on the attractiveness of the district, including the new National Park, as a place that offers a good quality of life.
• Newhaven has experienced significant job losses in recent years due to the decline in the manufacturing sector.
• There is the potential for growth in green technologies particularly in Newhaven: the energy from waste incinerator and the potential of further green technology in the shape of an off shore wind farm.
Rural Lewes
Around three quarters of Lewes residents live in the five urban areas of Lewes, Newhaven, Peacehaven, Seaford and Telscombe Cliffs/East Saltdean. The remainder of the population live in 23 predominantly rural parishes.
In the rural area of the Low Weald Parishes in this part of the District are small (less than 2,000 population), with the exception of Ringmer (a population of 4,600120) which has a range of facilities and services including a secondary school. The vitality of villages is suffering through a shortage of affordable housing, high levels of out commuting, a decline in the number and range of local services, and limited public transport. House prices in the Low Weald area of the District are generally higher than in the rest of the District.
The rural area of the South Downs, in common with the Low Weald area, also has issues with a shortage of affordable housing, high levels of out commuting, a decline in the number and range of local services, and limited public transport. However despite the area’s rural nature there are a number of key facilities and establishments that are important to the wider area, including Plumpton Agricultural College.
500 or 1.6% of jobs in the District are in agriculture and fishing, energy and water. (2008 ESIF)
120 CACI (2010)
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Local Authority District Summary Local Authority District
Individual Summary
Rother
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Local Authority District Summary
Three key challenges for Rother
• Improving road infrastructure is a key challenge. In particular, the Bexhill-Hastings Link Road (and the Baldslow Link) needed to improve local travel between Hastings & Bexhill, thus improving access to Bexhill from the A21 and opening up strategic land at NE Bexhill for housing and employment. Improvements to the A21 are also needed.
• Availability of reliable high-speed broadband across the area, including rural areas. Broadband infrastructure will require investment from the private sector (and perhaps the public sector). As a starting point there needs to be a greater understanding of what infrastructure already exists, through public sector networks.
• Developing the skills locally to sustain and grow a healthy knowledge-based business sector. The Five Point Plan for Hastings & Bexhill places an emphasis on developing knowledge-based sectors as these are likely to generate great growth and stimulate the development of local supply chains to support them. Investments in the Innovation Centre, UCH etc are all targeted at developing such businesses. These businesses will need a local workforce with the right skills to be able thrive. The education sector needs to be better attuned to the requirements of such businesses. To achieve this will need genuine partnerships being established between the providers and the businesses themselves. Skills development will therefore need a concerted effort to develop relationships between the schools, colleges and universities and the businesses themselves. The economy, business and enterprise
• Annual GVA growth in Rother has traditionally been broadly similar to regional and national averages (2000-2010).
• Historically, employment growth in the LAD has been higher than regional and national benchmarks (2000-2010).
• Productivity growth in Rother is greater than county, regional and national averages (2000- 2010).
• Financial, Business and Other Market Services is a major sector in Rother accounting for 40% of output and 23% of employment. The public sector also has a strong presence.
Figure 1: GVA, employment and productivity growth over time Annual % change 2000-2010 2010-2020 2008 2009 2010
GVA growth Rother 1.6% 2.6% 2.3% -4.6% 1.3% East Sussex 1.6% 2.4% 0.3% -4.4% 1.1% South East 1.8% 2.6% 1.0% -4.8% 1.3% UK 1.8% 2.3% 0.7% -4.7% 1.3% Employment Rother 0.7% 0.7% 4.9% -1.8% -0.8% East Sussex 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% -2.0% -1.1% South East 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% -2.6% -1.4% UK 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% -2.1% -1.5% Productivity Rother 1.9% 3.6% 0.7% -2.8% 2.6% East Sussex 1.5% 3.4% -0.7% -2.9% 2.7% South East 1.3% 3.6% -0.5% -2.7% 3.0% UK 1.2% 3.5% 0.1% -3.0% 3.0% Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
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Local Authority District Summary
Figure 2: GVA and employment by broad sector 100%
90% 22.1% 80% 20.8%
70%
60%
50% 40.0% 40% 33.8%
30%
20% 17.3% 16.1% 10%
0% Rother GVA UK GVA
100%
90%
80% 30.7% 27.1%
70%
60%
50% 23.2% 26.8% 40%
30% 24.2% 20% 21.9% 10%
0% Rother Employment UK Employment
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Local Authority District Summary
Business and enterprise
• The business birth rate is low in Rother compared to County, regional and national averages.
Figure 3: Business births in 2008 and 2009
20% % Born Since 2008
18% % Born Since 2009
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% UK South East East Sussex Rother Source: Experian pH Group data, August 2010 East Sussex has a small amount of large companies. Only 6 companies have over 200 employees in Rother.
People and community
• Rother has a working age population of 44,700, 9% (3,800) of whom are workless and 11% (5,600) of whom are claiming out of work benefits.
• The workless population has increased by 1,300 since 2005/06; there has been an increase of around 800 out of work benefit claimants over the period. The increase in out of work benefit claimants has been driven by an increase in JSA claimants as a result of the recession.
• In common with other parts of East Sussex, more than half of out of work benefit claimants are claiming Incapacity Benefit or Employment Support Assistance, with behavioural and mental disorders being the main cause of IB/SDA benefit claims.
• At 23%, Rother, along with Hastings, has the lowest proportion of working age residents who are qualified to Level 4. It also has the highest proportion of unqualified working age residents (13%) of all districts in the county, although this may partly reflect the older age profile of Rother residents.
• There are two LSOAs in Rother that are in the 10% most deprived in England. These are in Sidley ward. A further three LSOAs rank amongst the 20% most deprived in England (two more
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Local Authority District Summary
in Bexhill and one in Rye). Nine LSOAs rank amongst the 20% most deprived in England in the employment domain121.
• The economic inactivity rate in Rother is lower than the UK average, however greater than the county and regional averages. Place
• Employment land is relatively cheap in Rother. Retail land is on average £79 per m² (compared to a £93 per m² East Sussex average). Office space is £42 per m² (compared to a £62 per m² East Sussex average) and factory space is £26 per m² (compared to a £35 per m² East Sussex average).122
• Average house prices are above the national average but below the regional and county averages123.
• Within Rother, 42.9% of local respondents prioritised road and pavement repair as the most important issue which would improve the local area coming above the issues of job prospects, wage levels and local costs of living and public transport.124
Interim Work & Skills Plan 2010: Rother
Supply-Side Factors
• Rother has a working age population of 44,700, 9% (3,800) of whom are workless and 11% (5,600) of whom are claiming out of work benefits;
• The workless population has increased by 1,300 since 2005/06; there has been an increase of around 800 out of work benefit claimants over the period. The increase in out of work benefit claimants has been driven by an increase in JSA claimants as a result of the recession;
• In common with other parts of East Sussex, more than half of out of work benefit claimants are claiming Incapacity Benefit or Employment Support Assistance, with behavioural and mental disorders being the main cause of IB/SDA benefit claims;
• At 23%, Rother, along with Hastings, has the lowest proportion of working age residents who are qualified to Level 4. It also has the highest proportion of unqualified working age residents (13%) of all districts in the county, although this may partly reflect the older age profile of Rother residents;
• There are two LSOAs in Rother that are in the 10% most deprived in England. These are in Sidley ward. A further three LSOAs rank amongst the 20% most deprived in England (two more in Bexhill and one in Rye). Nine LSOAs rank amongst the 20% most deprived in England in the employment domain125.
Demand-Side Factors
• There are 37,300 Rother residents in work, more than 4,000 fewer than in 2005/6.
121 Deprivation in Rother in 2010, ESiF 122 Source: ONS 2009 (2008 Values) 123 Land Registry (Quarter 1, 2010) Average price of a semi-detached house 124 Interim East Sussex Work and Skills Plan, 2010 125 Deprivation in Rother in 2010, ESiF
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Local Authority District Summary
• There has been a significant increase in the number of people employed in skilled trades (+3,000), but a reduction in the number of people working in professional occupations (-2,800) and as process, plant and machine operatives (-2,200);
• Median workplace earnings are the lowest of all the districts in East Sussex and are well below the median earnings of Rother residents126. This suggests that higher earning residents tend to commute out of the district to find better paid jobs;
• In June 2009, there were 1,450 JSA claimants looking for work, but just 270 jobs advertised at Jobcentre Plus offices – 5 JSA claimants per job. For people who previously worked as process, plant and machine operatives, it reaches 28 claimants per advertised job; and for those who had previously worked as managers and senior officials, there were 38 claimants for each job;
• Even if only one third of all jobs are advertised in Jobcentre Plus offices and even if only half of the workless population wanted a job, this would still leave a shortfall of around 1,100 jobs;
• Rother has key local employment strengths in manufacturing, construction and public services and hotels & restaurants.
Job Creation
• Business density levels in Rother and levels of self-employment are high, which suggests a reasonable level of local entrepreneurship in the district which may be a response to the low incomes that are provided by paid employment locally;
• Pre-recession changes in employment saw a growth in jobs in construction and business services, but it is not clear whether these gains will be sustained through the economic downturn;
• The older age profile of local residents is likely to mean that there will be a growing demand for people to work in health & social work related activities in the foreseeable future.
Institutional Factors
• The average price of a semi-detached house in Rother was £212,162 in Quarter 1, 2010. This is 7.9 times the mean earnings of Rother workers, which makes it amongst the least affordable districts in East Sussex127. There are risks that lower earning households may have to move to more affordable areas because they cannot afford to get into the property market in Rother;
• Public transport and accessibility are a key challenge in Rother. Although some higher skilled residents can access the London labour market, improving public transport is seen as a key priority for many local residents;
• There are around 800 inactive residents who would like to work, but are not looking for jobs because they are looking after a family and there are a similar number of lone parents who are claiming out of work benefits.
Key Issues for Rother
• Rother has pockets of employment deprivation and a fairly low skilled working age population compared to other parts of East Sussex. It has a low employment rate and people who work in
126 ONS (2010) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, (full-time average median weekly wage) 127 Land Registry (Quarter 1, 2010) Average price of a semi-detached house Ratio calculated using ONS (2010), Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, average mean male full-time earnings.
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Local Authority District Summary
the district have low median earnings, making housing affordability difficult for many local residents;
• The job deficit may not be quite so acute as in some other parts of the East Sussex, but the quality and accessibility of these jobs may not make them attractive to many workless people;
• Qualification and skills levels may need to improve and, given the rural nature of much of the district, ensuring that the transport infrastructure supports employment and enables people outside the labour market to access jobs in nearby employment centres;
• There may be future job opportunities in the social care sector, as a result of the ageing local population and these need to be sufficiently attractive to local people with the right skills to take them;
• Rother has a high level of self-employment, which can be supported to grow indigenous business, its markets outside the district, and to develop higher value added products and services.
Rural Rother
Rother is rural in character, forming the south-eastern part of the High Weald; 83% of Rother lies within the High Weald. However, it also embraces low-lying coastal areas at both the eastern and western ends of the District.
Almost half of the population live in Bexhill (around 43,500 people). The other towns of Battle and Rye (including the contiguous parts of Rye Foreign & Playden) are considerably smaller, with populations of some 6,100 and 5,000 respectively128. Most of the remainder live in the villages and hamlets across the District.
Over time, the vitality of villages has tended to be undermined by a shortage of affordable housing, high levels of out-commuting and limited access to jobs and services, a decline in community services (particularly local shops) and limited public transport.
Of the 100,000sqm of employment land sought across the District, around 10% (i.e. 10,000sqm) may be required in rural localities, preferably within or at least well related to existing village development boundaries.
Approximately 10% of the population of Rother live in the countryside outside of the villages and towns, with some 200 or 1% of the jobs in Rother are in Agriculture, fishing, mining and utilities129.
128 CACI, (2010) 129 ONS (2009) Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES)
© Experian Plc 2010
Local Authority District Summary Local Authority District
Individual Summary
Wealden
© Experian Plc 2010
Three key challenges for Wealden
• Improving economic prosperity and reducing economic disparities across the district is a key challenge. This is related to retaining existing employment areas and allocating new space as part of urban extensions to enable cross subsidy of employment provision with housing land (other strategic benefits too). New employment land can enable a greater range of accommodation. There is a need to focus on provision in the south where there is the greatest need. It is also important for provision of housing to keep/attract/increase levels of the economically active population in Wealden.
• Improving skill levels. Low skill levels deter business investment and development. There is a need to work in partnership with others to address workforce skills and business requirements.
• Supporting the rural economy, including farm diversification and tourism. There is a need for appropriate rural and tourism development, focus on town/ market town centres as service centres for rural hinterland, also supporting the tourism economy.
The economy, business and enterprise
• Annual GVA growth in Wealden has traditionally been lower than regional and national averages (2000-2010).
• Historically, employment growth in the LAD has been similar to regional and national benchmarks (2000-2010).
• Productivity growth in Wealden is broadly similar to county, regional and national averages (2000-2010).
• Financial, Business and Other Market Services is a major sector in Wealden accounting for 39% of output and 24% of employment.
• Distribution, hotels etc and Financial, Business and Other Market Services are also major sectors in the Wealden economy. Figure 1: GVA, employment and productivity growth over time Annual % change 2000-2010 2010-2020 2008 2009 2010
GVA growth Wealden 1.4% 2.6% 0.8% -6.6% 0.9% East Sussex 1.6% 2.4% 0.3% -4.4% 1.1% South East 1.8% 2.6% 1.0% -4.8% 1.3% UK 1.8% 2.3% 0.7% -4.7% 1.3% Employment Wealden 0.5% 0.6% 1.6% -3.0% -1.5% East Sussex 0.5% 0.6% 1.4% -2.0% -1.1% South East 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% -2.6% -1.4% UK 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% -2.1% -1.5% Productivity Wealden 1.7% 3.6% -1.3% -3.2% 3.0% East Sussex 1.5% 3.4% -0.7% -2.9% 2.7% South East 1.3% 3.6% -0.5% -2.7% 3.0% UK 1.2% 3.5% 0.1% -3.0% 3.0% Source: Cambridge Econometrics, 2010
Figure 2: GVA and employment by broad sector
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50% 38.5% 40% 33.8%
30%
20% 17.1% 16.1% 10%
0% Wealden GVA UK GVA
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 23.8% 50% 26.8% 40%
30% 24.0%
20% 21.9% 10%
0% Wealden Employment UK GVA
Business and enterprise
• The business birth rate is low in Wealden compared to county, regional and national averages.
Figure 3: Business births in 2008 and 2009
20% % Born Since 2008 % Born Since 2009 18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0% UK South East East Sussex Wealden
Source: Experian pH Group data, August 2010
• East Sussex has only a small amount of large companies. Only 10 companies have over 200 employees in Wealden.
People and community
• Wealden has a working age population of 80,000 and is, by some margin the district with the largest population in East Sussex. The district has 6,300 (8%) workless working age residents and 5,800 (7%) residents who are claiming out of work benefits.
• The workless population has fallen by 1,600 since 2005/06, but there has been an increase of around 800 out of work benefit claimants over the period.
• In common with other parts of East Sussex, more than half of out of work benefit claimants are claiming Incapacity Benefit or Employment Support Assistance, with behavioural and mental disorders being the main cause of IB/SDA benefit claims;
• At 27%, Wealden has amongst the highest proportion of working age residents who are qualified to Level 4. It also has the lowest proportion of unqualified working age residents (7%) of all districts in the county.
• There are three LSOAs in Wealden that rank amongst the 20% most deprived in England. All are located in Hailsham. Two of these also rank amongst the 20% most deprived in England in the employment domain.130
• The economic inactivity rate in Wealden is lower than the UK average, however greater than the county and regional averages.
Place
• Employment land is relatively expensive in Wealden. Retail land is on average £96 per m² (compared to a £93 per m² East Sussex average). Office space is £78 per m² (compared to a £62 per m² East Sussex average) and factory space is £42 per m² (compared to a £35 per m² East Sussex average).131
• Average house prices are above the county, regional and national averages132.
• Within Wealden, 48.3% of local respondents prioritised activities for teenagers as the most important issue which would improve the local area above the issues of job prospects, wage levels and local costs of living and public transport.133
LAD synopsis – Interim Work & Skills Plan 2010
Supply-Side Factors
• Wealden has a working age population of 80,000 and is, by some margin the district with the largest population in East Sussex. The district has 6,300 (8%) workless working age residents and 5,800 (7%) residents who are claiming out of work benefits;
• The workless population has fallen by 1,600 since 2005/06, but there has been an increase of around 800 out of work benefit claimants over the period. The increase in out of work benefit claimants has been driven by an increase in JSA claimants as a result of the recession;
• In common with other parts of East Sussex, more than half of out of work benefit claimants are claiming Incapacity Benefit or Employment Support Assistance, with behavioural and mental disorders being the main cause of IB/SDA benefit claims;
• At 27%, Wealden has amongst the highest proportion of working age residents who are qualified to Level 4. It also has the lowest proportion of unqualified working age residents (7%) of all districts in the county;
• There are three LSOAs in Wealden that rank amongst the 20% most deprived in England. All are located in Hailsham. Two of these also rank amongst the 20% most deprived in England in the employment domain.134
Demand-Side Factors
130 Deprivation in Wealden in 2010, ESiF 131 Source: ONS 2009 (2008 Values) 132 Land Registry (Quarter 1 2010) Average price of a semi-detached house 133 Interim East Sussex Work and Skills Plan, 2010 134 Deprivation in Wealden in 2010, ESiF
• There are 68,700 Wealden residents in work, 1,000 more than in 2005/6. There has been a significant increase in the number of people employed in skilled trades (+3,100) and elementary occupations (+3,000) but a reduction in the number of people working in higher level occupations, such as managers and senior officials (- 1,800), and associate professional and technical occupations (-2,900) people working in professional occupations (-2,800) and as process, plant and machine operatives (- 2,200);
• Median workplace earnings are close to the East Sussex average, while median residents’ earnings are the highest in the county135. The significant difference between the two suggests that high earning residents in Wealden find employment outside the district, commuting to employment centres, such as Crawley and London;
• In June 2009, there were 1,600 JSA claimants looking for work, but just 730 jobs advertised at Jobcentre Plus offices – 2 JSA claimants per job. For people who previously worked as managers and senior officials or administrative and secretarial workers, this reaches 11 claimants per advertised job;
• Even if only one third of all jobs are advertised in Jobcentre Plus offices and even if only half of the workless population wanted a job, this would still leave a shortfall of around 1,000 jobs;
• Although Wealden has reasonably high levels of worklessness, this may not translate into the same levels of deprivation as some other areas. Whilst there may be a shortfall in the number of jobs for the workless population, the number of job vacancies at the job centres is relatively high compared with the number of JSA claimants.
Job Creation
• Business density and self-employment are amongst the highest in East Sussex, which suggests a high level of local entrepreneurship in the district. This may be a response to the low incomes that are provided by paid employment locally, but may also be partly attributable to higher skilled ex-commuters starting businesses from, for example, their homes;
• Pre-recession changes in employment saw a growth in jobs in construction and business services, but it is not clear whether these gains will be sustained through the economic downturn.
Institutional Factors
• The average price of a semi-detached house in Wealden was £233,092 in Quarter 1 2010, the highest in East Sussex. This is 8.6 times the mean earnings of Wealden workers, which makes it the least affordable district in East Sussex136.There are risks that lower earning households may have to move to more affordable areas because they cannot afford to get on the property ladder in Wealden;
• Public transport and accessibility are a key challenge for businesses and for people who want to find work in Wealden. Although some higher skilled residents can access
135 ONS (2010) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (full-time average median weekly wage) 136 Land Registry (Quarter 1 2010) Average price of a semi-detached house Ratio calculated using ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (2010) average mean male full-time earnings.
the London and Crawley labour markets, improving public transport is seen as a key priority for many local residents;
• There are around 1,200 inactive residents who would like to work, but are not looking for jobs because they are looking after a family and there are around 700 lone parents who are claiming out of work benefits.
Key Issues for Wealden
• Wealden is the largest and most affluent district in East Sussex, but there may be a significant disconnect between people who live in the district and people who work in it;
• Median workplace earnings are close to the East Sussex average, while median residents’ earnings are the highest in the county137. The significant difference between the two suggests that high earning residents in Wealden find employment outside the district, commuting to employment centres, such as Crawley and London;
• Like in Lewes, there is a real risk that Wealden develops a dual labour market, with local residents unable to move on from low-paying local jobs unless they move out of the area. It is notable that, like in Lewes, the most significant increase in employment has been in elementary occupations in recent years and that, like Lewes, growth in residents’ earnings has far outstripped the growth in workplace earnings;
• Low skills may not be the major issue in Wealden. More pressing concerns may relate to improving the quality of local jobs so that they can provide a sustainable income; improving access to and from larger employment centres and building on the high level of entrepreneurship so that local businesses are able to expand and employ more local people;
• Levels of worklessness in Wealden may not always translate into disadvantage, however. Despite reasonably high numbers of workless residents, claimant count levels are low.
Rural Wealden
Wealden is a large rural district, encompassing a large number of small market towns, villages and hamlets. Historically, five main towns are identified namely Crowborough, Hailsham, Heathfield, Polegate and Uckfield. Half of the District’s population of c145, 000 live outside the towns138; this dispersed settlement pattern creates particular challenges for local service provision, and a viable public transport system.
The challenge for the Wealden Core Strategy is to focus growth where it is most accessible and sustainable, whilst maintaining the balance between rural settlements and larger wider community service centres. The south Wealden settlements all provide opportunities to encourage economic growth to help regenerate the south Wealden area, and for significant local affordable housing. Hailsham in particular requires growth and regeneration; deprivation issues need to be tackled, and issues of transport infrastructure.
137 ONS (2010) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (full-time average median weekly wage) 138 CACI (2010)
The High Weald Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty and the South Downs National Park together cover some 60% of the District; 600 or 1.3% of the jobs are in Agriculture, fishing, mining and utilities139.
139 ONS (2009) Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES)
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