MEXICO: ELECTION TRACKER
NOVEMBER 2017
EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH, LATAM MARCELO CARVALHO @MCarvalhoEcon
This is an interactive menu. CONTENTS Clink on the boxes to navigate through the file 01 0202 03 04 POLLS GENERALGENERAL INFO INFO BIOS & PARTIES HISTORICAL SERIES
• BY CANDIDATE • CALENDAR HOW PARTIES ARE CHOOSING THEIR CANDIDATES • PRESIDENT APPROVAL
• BY PARTY • WHAT’S AT STAKE? • MORENA (AMLO) • ZAVALA -INDEPENDENT • CURRENT CONGRESS
• PRI • FRENTE (PAN-PRD) • CONGRESS • POLITICAL SPECTRUM • EVOLUTION OF POLLS
• POLLS METHODOLOGY • PARTY PLATFORMS - POTENTIAL CANDIDATES - POTENTIAL CANDIDATES IN PAST ELECTIONS To return to this menu, click on the • VOTER PROFILE • OTHER INDEPENDENTS • REGIONAL ASPECTS menu icon; to navigate through slides, click on the arrows
• OUR TEAM • OUR RECENT WORK
November 21, 2017 | 2 CONTENTS
01 02 03 04 POLLS GENERAL INFO BIOS & PARTIES HISTORICAL SERIES
• BY CANDIDATE • CALENDAR HOW PARTIES ARE CHOOSING THEIR CANDIDATES • PRESIDENT APPROVAL
• BY PARTY • WHAT’S AT STAKE? • MORENA (AMLO) • ZAVALA -INDEPENDENT • CURRENT CONGRESS
• PRI • FRENTE (PAN-PRD) • CONGRESS • POLITICAL SPECTRUM • EVOLUTION OF POLLS
• POLLS METHODOLOGY • PARTY PLATFORMS - POTENTIAL CANDIDATES - POTENTIAL CANDIDATES IN PAST ELECTIONS
• VOTER PROFILE • OTHER INDEPENDENTS • REGIONAL ASPECTS
• OUR TEAM • OUR RECENT WORK
November 21, 2017 | 3 01. POLLS
November 21, 2017 | 4 VOTER PREFERENCES | POPULARITY
IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU CHOOSE? (% of total response, October 2017 polls) The July 1st 2018 election promises to be a competitive race Left-wing Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has an early edge over the other candidates Different polls show a similar broader picture but details vary, with other candidates also looking competitive
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 AMLO (MORENA) Osorio Chong (PRI) Anaya (PAN) Zavala (Ind.) Pedro de Con (Ind.) "El Bronco" (Ind.)
Buendia y Laredo Mitosfky ElFinanciero
Source: Buendia y Laredo, Consulta Mitofsky, El Financiero, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 5 VOTER PREFERENCES | POTENTIAL ELECTORATE
WHAT’S YOUR OPINION ABOUT…? (October 2017) Left-wing AMLO faces resistance from a large section of the electorate, but less than in early 2017 PRI could choose a lesser-known candidate to avoid high rejection, but will have to work on their appeal Potential FRENTE (the PAN-PRD coalition) candidates appeal middle-class voters, surveys show
AMLO (MORENA) 35 26 28 11 Zavala (Independent) 27 24 31 18 Anaya (Frente) 28 21 30 21 Mancera (Frente) 15 31 15 39 Moreno (Frente) 14 24 11 51 Chong (PRI) 13 26 24 37 Meade (PRI) 10 22 7 61 Nuño (PRI) 6 15 9 70 % 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Positive Neutral Negative I don't recognise the name
Source: ISE/GEA, Parametria, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 6 VOTER PREFERENCES | SIMULATED SCENARIOS
AMLO (MORENA) leads in many of the simulated scenarios The FRENTE ranks second and ruling party PRI third in most scenarios PRI and FRENTE have yet to confirm their candidates, making it difficult to draw conclusions from simulations RANGE OF POLLS’ RESULTS IN NINE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
AMLO (MORENA) 22.3 26.1 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Anaya (Frente) 17.9 21.2 place place place place Mancera (Frente) 17.3 18.7 AMLO 9 Moreno (Frente) 17.6 18.3 FRENTE 7 2 Chong (PRI) 19.7 21 Meade (PRI) 17.2 17.6 PRI 2 7 Nuño (PRI) 16.0 17.3 Zavala 9 Zavala (Independent) 7.1 8.0 8.9 Ferriz (Independent) 3.6 5.05 0 10 20 30 40 50 Source: Consulta Mitofsky, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 7 PARTY PREFERENCES | VOTING INTENTIONS BY COALITION
FRENTE, the coalition between right-wing PAN and centre-left PRD, shows potential for broader support . This rationale, however, is complicated by Margarita Zavala’s exit from the party to pursue an independent candidacy Albeit widely unpopular, PRI’s has important strongholds across Mexico WHICH PARTY OR ALLIANCE WOULD YOU VOTE FOR, IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY? 45
40
35
30
25
20 6%
3% 4%
15
3% 17,
27% 25% 20% 20% - 17 , 17 , - 17, 19% 27% 19% 30% - 19% 27% 32% 17% 15% 26% 39%
10 - Oct 17 , 17 , 17, 17, Jun Aug 17, 17, 17 , 17 , - - - - 17 , 17, 17 , 17, 2, 18 .% 17 , 17, 17 , 17 , Feb ------5 - Oct Oct Aug Aug Oct Jun Oct Jun Jun Aug Aug Jun Feb Feb Feb Feb 0 AMLO’s1 2 "Frente3 " 4 5 Ruling party Includes Zavala, MORENA, coalition Undecided coalition, Centre Centre-right Left-wing Centre-right
Source: Consulta Mitofsky,, BNP Paribas CLICK ON THE BUTTONS ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON COALITIONS
November 21, 2017 | 8 PARTY PREFERENCES | REJECTION LEVELS
PRI’s rule over the country for more than 70 years is a double-edged sword; . While it means a large constituency, it also means very high rejection rate FOR WHICH PARTY WOULD YOU NEVER VOTE? (%) Oct-17 Dec-15 Dec-14 Nov-11 (prior to last elections) 51.7 45.6 PRI 42.7 16.7 35 39.6 PAN 36.3 30.0 34.7 32.9 MORENA 29.3 * 33.8 37.5 PRD 34.4 32.3
Source: Consulta Mitofsky, El Financiero, BNP Paribas. *MORENA was not a party in 2011, and Mr. López Obrador ran for the presidency on PRD’s ticket.
November 21, 2017 | 9 PARTY PREFERENCES | CONSTITUENCIES
The three major parties in Mexico (PAN, PRI AND PRD) still hold a relevant share of identification among the electorate The rise of the MORENA party is a relatively recent phenomenon
WHICH PARTY DO YOU IDENTIFY WITH?
25 PAN MORENA
20
15 Others 10 PRI
5 PRD 0 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17
Source: Buendia y Laredo, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 10 PARTY PREFERENCES | CONGRESS
All seats of the Congress and Senate are up for election in 2018 The winner will have to form alliances to get approval for projects . Rolling back the energy reform or any other changes to the constitution requires a 2/3rd majority in Congress Recent polls indicate that López Obrador’s MORENA party could get only around 20% of votes for the Lower House . MORENA party seems to lack structure and territorial penetration to capture more than one-fourth of the total seats in congress
VOTING INTENTIONS FOR THE LOWER HOUSE
40 34% 37% 30 24% 20 Projections for 10 Lower House 0
AMLOMORENA-PT – left wing GoverningPRI-PVEM-PES – centre 'Frente'PAN-PRD-MC alliance
Source: Buendia y Laredo, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 11 POLLS METHODOLOGY
BUENDÍA Y MITOFSKY PARAMETRIA ISE-GEA EL FINANCIERO LAREDO (ElEconomista)
In-house and In-house and Type In-house In-house In-house by phone by phone (varies)
1,600 people 800 people 500-1,000 people 1,000 people Weighted by INE’s 1,000 people Weighted Weighted by INEGI’s Weighted by INE’s 2017 report on Weighted by INEGI’s Survey proportionally by 2015 survey (gender, 2017 report on voters voters (gender, age, 2015 survey (gender, size, does not detail age, education, and (gender, age, sampling education, and age, household wage, metric occupation) education, and occupation) and education) occupation)
Representative in 100 in the six states Survey national level; Undisclosed surveyed (phone) Undisclosed Undisclosed 40 electoral sections location Other covered
Other 15 Other 18 Other 11 Other 15 Other 20 PRI PRI Latest PRI 26 PRI 21 18 25 PRI 26 poll PAN 22 PAN 25 PAN 24 PAN 26 PAN 21 MORENA 31 MORENA 29 MORENA 23 MORENA 27 MORENA 25
Source: Each pollster / research institute, ElUniversal, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 12 VOTER PROFILES| EDUCATION, INCOME AND AGE
6% University degree 6% More than 5 min. wages 13% 3 - 5 minimum wages 42% High school 22% 2 - 3 minimum wages
26% 1 -2 minimum wages 52% Basic education 55 or more 18 to 24 22% Less than 1 min. wage 22% 18% 48 Education level Average income AGE & 52 40 to 54 26% GENDER 25 to 39 Others 34% Religion 11% None 6%
Catholic 84%
Source: INEGI, ISE-GEA, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 13 VOTER PROFILES| SOURCES OF NEWS
% OF MEXICANS WHO HAVE, IN THE PREVIOUS DAY… 80% 5 in 10 Mexicans are frequent users 60% of the internet 40% Accessed 20% Watched the Listened to Watched Read TV Internet the radio cable TV 69% newspapers 49% 41% 30% 21% 0%
Source: Ernst&Young, IAB, BNP Paribas CLICK HERE TO SEE HOW MEXICANS VIEW ECONOMIC ISSUES
November 21, 2017 | 14
VOTER PROFILES| GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION
MEXICO: POPULATION BY STATE Mexico City
Total hab. megalopolis is home to 1 in every 4 voters
Around half of the electorate lives in only 10 metropolitan regions
Source: INEGI, BNP Paribas CLICK HERE TO SEE HOW PEOPLE VOTED IN EACH STATE
November 21, 2017 | 15
PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS | WHAT MEXICANS WORRY ABOUT MEXICO: MAIN CONCERNS Crime 84% Insecurity
Corrupt politicians 84% CRIMES HAVE SPIKED AFTER AN INITIAL DROP
Drug cartel-related violence 82% Inflation 82% Corruption Corrupt policemen 79%
Employment 72% INVESTIGATIONS CONTINUE AND INCLUDE MANY
Education 63% OFFICIALS FROM ALL PARTIES
Inequality 60%
Mexicans leaving the country 57% Economy Healthcare 56% INFLATION HAS RISEN FROM 3% TO 6% IN 2017 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% BUT UNEMPLOYMENT IS NEAR LOWS Source: Pew Research Center, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 16 VOTER PROFILES| ISSUES THAT MATTER MOST
% OF VOTERS WHO AGREE THAT… 7 in every 10 Mexicans wants the 80% Economy Mexico is in an economic country to continue in NAFTA Mexico 60% Mexico crisis should should 80% integrate continue in more with 8 in every 10 believe the country is 40% NAFTA the world Unions cause 68% more harm 68% facing an economic crisis 20% than benefit to society 47% 0% TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS 90% 80% Civil liberties
80% 60% Democracy is 70% preferable to 40% LGBT couples authoritarian Private 60% Federal should have regimes sector Marijuana equal rights to 59% government 20% Military Media NGOs Religion Courts 50% Police Abortion should should be heterosexual 50% 49% be made legal legalised 45% 79% 76% 65% 63% 53% 44% 26% 30% 40% 0%
Source: Pew Research Center, ISE/GEA, Mitofsky, Parametria, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 17 PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS | PRESS COVERAGE
MEDIA COVERAGE 0% 19% 31% 27% 4% 4% 48% 29% 54% 52% 49% 12% 47% 19% 30% 67% 50% 58%
AMLO Anaya Meade Mancera Zavala “El Bronco” 1,593 media prints 1,489 media prints 1,137 media prints 1,006 media prints 964 media prints 287 media prints
PRI’s Meade and independent Zavala get mostly positive press, but AMLO and Frente’s Anaya lead on media exposure
Source: El Financiero,, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 18 02. GENERAL INFO
November 21, 2017 | 19 2018 ELECTION CALENDAR
6 – Last day for independents st 14 – AMLO (MORENA) to to gather at least 866,000 1 – New president announce names for a possible signatures from citizens to takes office cabinet become candidates 30- Campaigns officially start
15 –Deadline for registration of 13 – Pre-campaigns officially coalitions conclude 2017 2018
November December January February March April May June July September December
Nov – Parties 01 – Last day for 11 –Deadline for the registration of decide on government officials candidacies coalitions and on to leave office in order how to choose to be eligible to run 1st – Elections day candidates 6 months before (one-round decision) election day Vote for president, all Congress, 7 states’ 20 - MORENA releases draft on governors, plus Mexico City mayor 30- Deadline for proposals Preliminary results on the same day registration of electoral
Source: INE,, BNP Paribas platforms
November 21, 2017 | 20
WHAT’S AT STAKE | MEXICO: NATIONWIDE President SIX-YEAR TERM
128 Senators SIX-YEAR TERMS; 100% of the seats 64 senators by relative majority, 32 proportional, 32 minorities
500 Deputies THREE-YEAR TERMS; 100% of the seats 300 by relative majority, 200 proportional Source: INE,, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 21
WHAT’S AT STAKE | MEXICO: LOCAL ELECTIONS
PARTIES’ SHARE OF STATE GOVERNSHIPS 7 governors + TO BE DISPUTED Mexico City mayor The equivalent of 35% of Mexico’s GDP will face 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% state elections, for five-year tenures.
2018 ELECTIONS MAP PRI holds office in more than 50% of the states
Mayors, aldermen, and governor without gubernatorial elections (who will stay Mayors, aldermen Mayors only in office) Alderman and governor Aldermen only Municipalities in 25 states out of a total of 31 states,
Source: INE,, BNP Paribas besides Mexico City
November 21, 2017 | 22 ELECTORAL ADVERTISEMENT
TV AND RADIO TIME
Parties are forbidden by law to buy TV or radio airtime The Federal Electoral Institute (INE) divides 70% of the airtime proportionally to votes in the last federal election, and 30% uniformly across candidates
Equal for all candidates 30%
Proportional to votes 70%
Source: INE,, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 23 PARTIES | POLITICAL SPECTRUM
CLICK ON THE PARTY LOGOS TO CHECK COALITIONS
Left-wing Centre Right-wing
Source: ElUniversal,, BNP Paribas CLICK HERE FOR THE MAIN PARTIES’ PLATFORM
November 21, 2017 | 24 PARTIES | ECONOMIC POLICY PLATFORMS
Party platforms Reforms and PEMEX NAFTA and trade Fiscal policy Doing business Welfare Lorem ipsum Lorem ipsum Lorem ipsum Lorem ipsum Lorem ipsum LoremMORENA ipsum Changed from “rolling Promises to continue Wishes to boost public Wants to boost Increase the (AMLO) back” reforms to holding with NAFTA despite investments and social public development minimum wage by referendums; says it historic opposition; programmes through a banks and stimulate almost 5 times until wants to expand role of defends active reshuffle of spending, the creation of 2026 (~30% per PEMEX and SOEs with production policies to with no tax hikes until commercial banks to year), housing additional investments reduce imports and 2026; promises a lower lending rates; scheme through minimum infrastructure plan of Promises to fight market instruments agricultural prices 4% of the GDP corruption PAN Supports reforms, Supports the deal Defends austerity, but Promises to do away Wants a universal (Frente) defends bigger changes and trade pacts; promises tax cuts and with red tape at all salary to tackle in PEMEX and stronger defends more more spending on public levels; wants to fight poverty; wants to regulatory agencies diversification works corruption at all update conditional through ex-NAFTA levels transference countries schemes PRI Supports the reforms; Supports the deal Promises to keep up with Focus on SMEs, with Calls for broader promises to further and defends the current fiscal special credit lines reach for conditional deepen all changes ongoing renegotiation consolidation efforts transference process programmes
CLICK HERE TO CHECK INITIAL PROPOSALS BY MORENA (Spanish)
Source: Party websites, ElUniversal,, Reforma, El Economista, BNP Paribas CLICK ON THE PARTY LOGOS FOR INFORMATION ON COALITIONS
November 21, 2017 | 25 3. COALITIONS & BIOS
November 21, 2017 | 26 PARTIES | MECHANISMS TO CHOOSE CANDIDATES
STATUS AND PARTY MECHANISMS TO CHOOSE CANDIDATES
Left-wing coalition was The ruling party Frente should Independents conceived around Mr. coalition will choose announce until Dec 15. have until Feb 13 to Andrés Manuel López its candidate through a Open primaries are Obrador’s name council composed by gather at least being considered, and 866,000 signatures (AMLO). party elites (50%) and are expected to include core constituency pre-candidates from to get on the ballot (50%) until early Dec. both PAN (to be chosen Click here to check Yet to announce pre- by all party members) in real-time the candidacies and and PRD (chosen by progress made by constituency delegates elite members) each candidate
Source: El Financiero, Milenio,, BNP Paribas CLICK ON THE BUTTONS ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON COALITIONS
November 21, 2017 | 27
PARTIES | PRI (PARTIDO DE LA REVOLUCCIÓN INSTITUCIONAL) STATES OF MEXICO BY GOVERNING PARTY Ruling party enjoys a knit constituency
PRI IS THE PARTY WHICH HOLDS MOST
POSITIVE/NEGATIVE PERCEPTIONS ABOUT POLITICAL PARTIES MAYORSHIPS AND STATES… 40 20 38% 37% 29% 27% 0 -20 -18 -12 …BUT STILL HAS TO DECIDE ON A 49% -32 -40 56% 61% -40 -60 67% CANDIDATE AND HAS THE HIGHEST -80 PAN MORENA PRD PRI REJECTION RATES Favourable Unfavourable Balance
Source: ElUniversal, ISA-GEA,, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 28 PARTIES | PRI (PARTIDO DE LA REVOLUCCIÓN INSTITUCIONAL)
WHO WOULD YOU PREFER TO BE PRI’S CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT IN 2018? (SIMULATED, FROM LIST) JOSÉ ANTONIO MEADE OSORIO CHONG 37 40 48-years-old 53-years-old . Born in Mexico City . Born in Pachuca
30 Secretary of Finance Secretary of the 22 (2016-present), Social BIO Interior (2012-current) BIO Dev. (2015), Foreign Governor of Hidalgo 20 Affairs (2012-2015), 14 (2005-2011) 12 Energy (2011) 11 10 Lawyer (UAEH) 10 8 Economist and Lawyer 6 (ITAM/Yale) 2 3 Leads PRI internal Positive polls and has support Positive 0 Fiscally conservative, of regional leaders Miguel Eruviel José Aurelio José pro-market term Key for the Pact for Angel Avila Antonio Nuño Narro Fresh face Mexico negotiations Osorio Villegas Meade Chong Mostly unknown, no Negative Negative High rejection rates party living Could be associated No experience in PRI supporters Overall voters with rise in insecurity campaigning
Source: parties and candidiates websites, El Financiero, ISA-GEA,, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 29 POTENTIAL CANDIDATES | PRI
ERUVIEL AVILA JOSE RAMÓN NARRO AURELIO NUÑO
39-years-old 48-years-old 68-years-old . Born in Mexico City . Born in Ecatepec . Born in Saltillo Secretary of Education Mexico State governor Secretary of Health (2015-current) BIO (2011-2017) BIO (2016-current) BIO President’s Chief of Ecatepec de Morelos Universidad Nacional’s Staff (2012-2015) mayor (2009-2011) dean (2007-2015) Public Management Lawyer (UNAM/UTM) Physician (UNAM) (UIA/Oxford) Support from some High approval ratings, Positive Positive academic circles Positive Participated in the popularity within PRI mediation of 13 reforms High ceiling of potential Won state elections voters Named Young Global
with 63% of votes Leader (WEF, 2015)
Negative Very identified with Slow start to Negative Widely unknown Negative Peña Nieto’s tenure Education reform No experience in campaigning Age Lack of experience in elections
Source: ElUniversal, Reforma, ElEconomista and politicians websites
November 21, 2017 | 30 PARTIES | MORENA (MOVIMENTO REGENERACCIÓN NACIONAL)
ANDRÉS MANUEL LOPEZ OBRADOR Left-wing MORENA officially
65-years-old . Born in Macuspana became a party only in 2014.
Mexico City mayor (2000-2005) BIO It was founded by Andrés President of the PRD party (1996-1999) State leader of the PRI party (1983) López Obrador (AMLO) Political Sciences (UNAM)
Positive He left office as Mexico City’s Mayor with an approval following his exit from PRD, on whose rating of 84% and ran a relatively conservative tenure in fiscal terms ticket he unsuccessfully ran twice Implemented security programmes with modest success for president (2006 and 2012) Has several times announced opposition to reforms, Negative saying it he would push for referendums on policies that have already been approved Might block future oil auctions and delay progress on energy reform
Source: parties and candidiates websites, El Financiero, ISA-GEA,, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 31
PARTIES | FRENTE - THE PAN-PRD ALLIANCE PARTY VOTING INTENTIONS 30 4% Right-wing PAN has joined forces 6% 20 with centre-left PRD and MC 10 19% 0 With this, the formed coalition potentially amplifies its reach within the Mexican SUPPORT FOR THE FRENTE COALITION society (and breaks its vote intentions 100% 13 23 80% 37 31 ceiling)… 60% 46 40% 40 58 20% 22 32 0% …but could still face resistance from many All voters PAN supporters PRD supporters Not answered Against In favour left-leaning voters, plus from within the party
Source: parties and candidiates websites, El Financiero, ISA-GEA,, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 32 POTENTIAL CANDIDATES | FRENTE : THE PAN-PRD ALLIANCE
RICARDO ANAYA MIGUEL MANCERA RAFAEL MORENO VALLE
38-years-old 51-years-old 49-years-old . Born in Querétaro . Born in Mexico City . Born in Puebla
Right-wing PAN party Mexico City mayor by Governor of Puebla by BIO leader (2014-present) BIO PRD (2012-present) BIO PAN (2011-2017)
Lower House speaker D.F. General Attorney Senator (2006-2010) (2013-2014) (2008-2012) Lawyer (UNAM) Lawyer (UNAM) Lawyer (UNAM)
Voiced support for the Strong backer of Positive Positive Could help attract left- Positive energy reform leaning constituencies energy reform
Young leader; close to As General Attorney, Elected his successor
many PRD leaders reduced delinquency with over 45% of votes
Associated with a Negative Seen as divisive within Negative Low approval ratings Negative some PAN ranks in Mexico City traditional family
Hurt by negative press Could be rejected by Finished term with
coverage PAN right-wing core 20pp less approval
Source: ElUniversal, Reforma, ElEconomista and politicians websites, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 33 CANDIDATES | MRS. ZAVALA AND OTHER INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES
VOTING INTENTIONS AMONG PAN SUPPORTERS (%, SIMULATED)
Rafael Moreno, 16% MARGARITA ZAVALA
Ricardo 50-years-old Anaya, 34% . Born in Mexico City
Margarita First Lady (2006-2012) BIO Zavala, 28% Deputy by of PAN (2003-2006)
Aldermen PAN (1994-1997)
Lawyer/Teacher (Libre Derecho)
VOTING INTENTIONS OF INDEPENDENT SUPPORTERS (%, Her husband Calderón is Positive remembered for tough SIMULATED) measures on crime 50 41.5 Has loyal supporters among the 40 PAN electorate 30 18.1 20 Negative Lacks party structure and ranks 12.5 11 fourth in overall polls 10 0.4 Her exit from PAN did not result 0 in other high-profile exits Margarita Zavala Pedro Ferriz de "El Bronco" "Jaguar" Marichuy (former Con EZLN fighter) Source: ElUniversal, Reforma, ISA-GEA, Consulta Mitosfky and politicians websites, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 34 POTENTIAL CANDIDATES | OTHER INDEPENDENTS
PEDRO FERRIZ CON JAIME “EL BRONCO” “MARICHUY”
66-years-old 61-years-old 53-years-old . Born in Mexico City . Born in Galeana . Born in Tuxpan TV anchor and local Nuevo León governor Speaker for (2015-current) BIO correspondent BIO BIO Government’s (1980s-2012) Mayor of García, NL Indigenous Council (2009-2012) Journalist and Physician, traditional Entrepreneur Engineer (UANL) (not formally trained) (Iberoamericana) Won as independent in Positive Positive Positive Fiscally conservative, Mexico’s richest state Enjoys support from against PRI and PAN indigenous groups, some pro-market views High approval ratings human rights advocates Fresh face when mayor
Negative Negative Negative Most rejected his Far-left, socialist views No experience in leaving the state politics, public Former EZLN guerrilla government to run as management member president
Source: ElUniversal, Reforma, ISA-GEA, Consulta Mitosfky and politicians websites, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 35 04. HISTORICAL SERIES
November 21, 2017 | 36 PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS
DO YOU APPROVE THE PRESIDENT’S WORK?
Approval of president Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI) is much lower than in previous tenures Peña Nieto`s has made several structural reforms – but has fallen short in tackling corruption and insecurity in the view of most Mexicans, according to surveys
80 70 Vicente Fox (2000-2006) 60 50 40 Felipe Calderón 30 (2006-2012) 20 Enrique Peña Nieto, PRI 10 (2012-2018) 0 Year 1, Q1 Year 2, Q1 Year 3, Q1 Year 4, Q1 Year 5, Q1 Year 6, Q1
Source: ISA-GEA, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 37 CONGRESS AND SENATE COMPOSITION IN THE LAST ELECTION (2012)
CONGRESS SENATE
Source: Congress, Senate, BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 38 POLLING PATTERN IN PAST ELECTIONS
2006 2012
50 50
38.2% 40 40 35.9% 31.6% 35.3% 30 30
25.7% 20 22.0% 20
10 10
. Felipe Calderón (PAN), 35.9% . Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), 38.2% . López Obrador, AMLO (PRD), 35.3% . López Obrador, AMLO (PRD), 31.6% . Roberto Madrazo (PRI), 22.0% . Josefina Mota (PAN), 25.7%
Source: Covarrubia y Asociados, Buendia y Laredo,, Reforma, ISA-GEA, Consulta Mitosfky BNP Paribas
November 21, 2017 | 39 ELECTION RESULTS, WINNING PARTY BY STATE
2006 2012
. Felipe Calderón (PAN), 35.9% . Josefina Mota (PAN), 25.7% . López Obrador, AMLO (PRD), 35.3% . López Obrador, AMLO (PRD), 31.6% . Roberto Madrazo (PRI), 22.0% . Enrique Peña Nieto (PRI), 38.2%
Source: INE, ISA-GEA, BNP Paribas. Colour stands for what party won in each state.
November 21, 2017 | 40 OUR TEAM | LATAM ECONOMIC RESEARCH
Marcelo Carvalho Gustavo Arruda Head of Emerging Markets Research, Latam Brazil (55 11) 3841-3418 (55 11) 3841-3466 [email protected] [email protected]
Florencia Vazquez Luiz Eduardo Peixoto Argentina and Chile Colombia and Mexico (54 11) 4875-4363 (55 11) 3841-3494 [email protected] [email protected]
Follow us on Twitter: @MCarvalhoEcon
November 21, 2017 | 41 RECENT PUBLICATIONS
MEXICO: 2018 ELECTION ROADMAP BRAZIL: ELECTION TRACKER
MEXICO: MINIMUM WAGE, MINIMUM PROBLEM MEXICO: RISKS FROM FX TO INFLATION
Source: BNP Paribas Market Economics
November 21, 2017 | 42