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López Obrador, AMLO (PRD), 35.3% MEXICO: ELECTION TRACKER NOVEMBER 2017 EMERGING MARKETS RESEARCH, LATAM MARCELO CARVALHO @MCarvalhoEcon This is an interactive menu. CONTENTS Clink on the boxes to navigate through the file 01 0202 03 04 POLLS GENERALGENERAL INFO INFO BIOS & PARTIES HISTORICAL SERIES • BY CANDIDATE • CALENDAR HOW PARTIES ARE CHOOSING THEIR CANDIDATES • PRESIDENT APPROVAL • BY PARTY • WHAT’S AT STAKE? • MORENA (AMLO) • ZAVALA -INDEPENDENT • CURRENT CONGRESS • PRI • FRENTE (PAN-PRD) • CONGRESS • POLITICAL SPECTRUM • EVOLUTION OF POLLS • POLLS METHODOLOGY • PARTY PLATFORMS - POTENTIAL CANDIDATES - POTENTIAL CANDIDATES IN PAST ELECTIONS To return to this menu, click on the • VOTER PROFILE • OTHER INDEPENDENTS • REGIONAL ASPECTS menu icon; to navigate through slides, click on the arrows • OUR TEAM • OUR RECENT WORK November 21, 2017 | 2 CONTENTS 01 02 03 04 POLLS GENERAL INFO BIOS & PARTIES HISTORICAL SERIES • BY CANDIDATE • CALENDAR HOW PARTIES ARE CHOOSING THEIR CANDIDATES • PRESIDENT APPROVAL • BY PARTY • WHAT’S AT STAKE? • MORENA (AMLO) • ZAVALA -INDEPENDENT • CURRENT CONGRESS • PRI • FRENTE (PAN-PRD) • CONGRESS • POLITICAL SPECTRUM • EVOLUTION OF POLLS • POLLS METHODOLOGY • PARTY PLATFORMS - POTENTIAL CANDIDATES - POTENTIAL CANDIDATES IN PAST ELECTIONS • VOTER PROFILE • OTHER INDEPENDENTS • REGIONAL ASPECTS • OUR TEAM • OUR RECENT WORK November 21, 2017 | 3 01. POLLS November 21, 2017 | 4 VOTER PREFERENCES | POPULARITY IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU CHOOSE? (% of total response, October 2017 polls) The July 1st 2018 election promises to be a competitive race Left-wing Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has an early edge over the other candidates Different polls show a similar broader picture but details vary, with other candidates also looking competitive 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 AMLO (MORENA) Osorio Chong (PRI) Anaya (PAN) Zavala (Ind.) Pedro de Con (Ind.) "El Bronco" (Ind.) Buendia y Laredo Mitosfky ElFinanciero Source: Buendia y Laredo, Consulta Mitofsky, El Financiero, BNP Paribas November 21, 2017 | 5 VOTER PREFERENCES | POTENTIAL ELECTORATE WHAT’S YOUR OPINION ABOUT…? (October 2017) Left-wing AMLO faces resistance from a large section of the electorate, but less than in early 2017 PRI could choose a lesser-known candidate to avoid high rejection, but will have to work on their appeal Potential FRENTE (the PAN-PRD coalition) candidates appeal middle-class voters, surveys show AMLO (MORENA) 35 26 28 11 Zavala (Independent) 27 24 31 18 Anaya (Frente) 28 21 30 21 Mancera (Frente) 15 31 15 39 Moreno (Frente) 14 24 11 51 Chong (PRI) 13 26 24 37 Meade (PRI) 10 22 7 61 Nuño (PRI) 6 15 9 70 % 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Positive Neutral Negative I don't recognise the name Source: ISE/GEA, Parametria, BNP Paribas November 21, 2017 | 6 VOTER PREFERENCES | SIMULATED SCENARIOS AMLO (MORENA) leads in many of the simulated scenarios The FRENTE ranks second and ruling party PRI third in most scenarios PRI and FRENTE have yet to confirm their candidates, making it difficult to draw conclusions from simulations RANGE OF POLLS’ RESULTS IN NINE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AMLO (MORENA) 22.3 26.1 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Anaya (Frente) 17.9 21.2 place place place place Mancera (Frente) 17.3 18.7 AMLO 9 Moreno (Frente) 17.6 18.3 FRENTE 7 2 Chong (PRI) 19.7 21 Meade (PRI) 17.2 17.6 PRI 2 7 Nuño (PRI) 16.0 17.3 Zavala 9 Zavala (Independent) 7.1 8.0 8.9 Ferriz (Independent) 3.6 5.05 0 10 20 30 40 50 Source: Consulta Mitofsky, BNP Paribas November 21, 2017 | 7 PARTY PREFERENCES PARTY WHICH PARTY OR ALLIANCE WOULD YOU VOTE FOR, IF WERE HELDELECTIONS TODAY? VOTE YOU WOULD OR ALLIANCE WHICH PARTY Source: Consulta . Albeit widely unpopular, PRI’s has Albeit widelyunpopular, FRENTE This rationale, however, is complicated by Margarita Zavala’s party the from exit Zavala’s by Margarita is complicated however, rationale, This Mitofsky ,, ,, BNP Paribas , the coalition between right 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 Left MORENA, Feb-17, 17% AMLO’s - Jun-17, wing 19% 1 CLICK ON THE BUTTONS ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON COALITIONS ON INFORMATION FOR ABOVE BUTTONS THE ON CLICK Aug-17, 19% Oct-17, 20% | VOTING BY INTENTIONS COALITION VOTING coalition, coalition, Ruling Feb-17, 15% important strongholds across Mexico - Jun-17, 2, 18.% and centre wing PAN 2 party party Centre Aug-17, 19% Oct-17, 20% Centre Feb-17, 26% c " Frente oalition Jun-17, 27% 3 - right Aug-17, 27% " " Oct-17, 25% - left shows PRD, potential for broader support Includes Centre Feb-17, 3% Jun-17, 4% 4 - Zavala, Zavala, right Aug-17, 3% Oct-17, 6% pursueindependentto an candidacy Undecided Feb-17, 39% Jun-17, 32% 5 Aug-17, 30% Oct-17, 27% November 21, 2017 | 8 PARTY PREFERENCES | REJECTION LEVELS PRI’s rule over the country for more than 70 years is a double-edged sword; . While it means a large constituency, it also means very high rejection rate FOR WHICH PARTY WOULD YOU NEVER VOTE? (%) Oct-17 Dec-15 Dec-14 Nov-11 (prior to last elections) 51.7 45.6 PRI 42.7 16.7 35 39.6 PAN 36.3 30.0 34.7 32.9 MORENA 29.3 * 33.8 37.5 PRD 34.4 32.3 Source: Consulta Mitofsky, El Financiero, BNP Paribas. *MORENA was not a party in 2011, and Mr. López Obrador ran for the presidency on PRD’s ticket. November 21, 2017 | 9 PARTY PREFERENCES | CONSTITUENCIES The three major parties in Mexico (PAN, PRI AND PRD) still hold a relevant share of identification among the electorate The rise of the MORENA party is a relatively recent phenomenon WHICH PARTY DO YOU IDENTIFY WITH? 25 PAN MORENA 20 15 Others 10 PRI 5 PRD 0 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Source: Buendia y Laredo, BNP Paribas November 21, 2017 | 10 PARTY PREFERENCES | CONGRESS All seats of the Congress and Senate are up for election in 2018 The winner will have to form alliances to get approval for projects . Rolling back the energy reform or any other changes to the constitution requires a 2/3rd majority in Congress Recent polls indicate that López Obrador’s MORENA party could get only around 20% of votes for the Lower House . MORENA party seems to lack structure and territorial penetration to capture more than one-fourth of the total seats in congress VOTING INTENTIONS FOR THE LOWER HOUSE 40 34% 37% 30 24% 20 Projections for 10 Lower House 0 AMLOMORENA-PT – left wing GoverningPRI-PVEM-PES – centre 'Frente'PAN-PRD-MC alliance Source: Buendia y Laredo, BNP Paribas November 21, 2017 | 11 POLLS METHODOLOGY BUENDÍA Y MITOFSKY PARAMETRIA ISE-GEA EL FINANCIERO LAREDO (ElEconomista) In-house and In-house and Type In-house In-house In-house by phone by phone (varies) 1,600 people 800 people 500-1,000 people 1,000 people Weighted by INE’s 1,000 people Weighted Weighted by INEGI’s Weighted by INE’s 2017 report on Weighted by INEGI’s Survey proportionally by 2015 survey (gender, 2017 report on voters voters (gender, age, 2015 survey (gender, size, does not detail age, education, and (gender, age, sampling education, and age, household wage, metric occupation) education, and occupation) and education) occupation) Representative in 100 in the six states Survey national level; Undisclosed surveyed (phone) Undisclosed Undisclosed 40 electoral sections location Other covered Other 15 Other 18 Other 11 Other 15 Other 20 PRI PRI Latest PRI 26 PRI 21 18 25 PRI 26 poll PAN 22 PAN 25 PAN 24 PAN 26 PAN 21 MORENA 31 MORENA 29 MORENA 23 MORENA 27 MORENA 25 Source: Each pollster / research institute, ElUniversal, BNP Paribas November 21, 2017 | 12 VOTER PROFILES| EDUCATION, INCOME AND AGE 6% University degree 6% More than 5 min. wages 13% 3 - 5 minimum wages 42% High school 22% 2 - 3 minimum wages 26% 1 -2 minimum wages 52% Basic education 55 or more 18 to 24 22% Less than 1 min. wage 22% 18% 48 Education level Average income AGE & 52 40 to 54 26% GENDER 25 to 39 Others 34% Religion 11% None 6% Catholic 84% Source: INEGI, ISE-GEA, BNP Paribas November 21, 2017 | 13 VOTER PROFILES| SOURCES OF NEWS % OF MEXICANS WHO HAVE, IN THE PREVIOUS DAY… 80% 5 in 10 Mexicans are frequent users 60% of the internet 40% Accessed 20% Watched the Listened to Watched Read TV Internet the radio cable TV 69% newspapers 49% 41% 30% 21% 0% Source: Ernst&Young, IAB, BNP Paribas CLICK HERE TO SEE HOW MEXICANS VIEW ECONOMIC ISSUES November 21, 2017 | 14 VOTER PROFILES| GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION MEXICO: POPULATION BY STATE Mexico City Total hab. megalopolis is home to 1 in every 4 voters Around half of the electorate lives in only 10 metropolitan regions Source: INEGI, BNP Paribas CLICK HERE TO SEE HOW PEOPLE VOTED IN EACH STATE November 21, 2017 | 15 PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS | WHAT MEXICANS WORRY ABOUT MEXICO: MAIN CONCERNS Crime 84% Insecurity Corrupt politicians 84% CRIMES HAVE SPIKED AFTER AN INITIAL DROP Drug cartel-related violence 82% Inflation 82% Corruption Corrupt policemen 79% Employment 72% INVESTIGATIONS CONTINUE AND INCLUDE MANY Education 63% OFFICIALS FROM ALL PARTIES Inequality 60% Mexicans leaving the country 57% Economy Healthcare 56% INFLATION HAS RISEN FROM 3% TO 6% IN 2017 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% BUT UNEMPLOYMENT IS NEAR LOWS Source: Pew Research Center, BNP Paribas November 21, 2017 | 16 VOTER PROFILES| ISSUES THAT MATTER MOST % OF VOTERS WHO AGREE THAT… 7 in every 10 Mexicans wants the 80% Economy Mexico is in an economic country to continue in NAFTA Mexico 60% Mexico crisis should should 80% integrate continue in more with 8 in every 10 believe the country is 40% NAFTA the world Unions cause 68% more harm 68% facing an economic crisis 20% than benefit to society 47% 0% TRUST IN INSTITUTIONS 90% 80% Civil liberties 80% 60% Democracy is 70% preferable to 40% LGBT couples
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