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The July 1St Election Battle : SPECIAL REPORT The July 1st election battle Mexico City, June 2018 Barcelona • Bogota • Buenos Aires • Havana • Lima • Lisbon • Madrid • Mexico City • Miami • New York City • Panama City • Quito • Rio de Janeiro • Sao Paulo Santiago • Santo Domingo • Washington, DC THE JULY 1ST ELECTION BATTLE 1. INTRODUCTION July 1, Mexico’s election day, is predicted to be complex and historic. 1. INTRODUCTION Derived from the political reform of 2014, we will witness the 2. CANDIDATES implementation of unprecedented figures in the political system, 3. POLLS such as the re-election of legislators, the coalition government and 4. SCENARIO 1: AMLO WINS THE independent candidates. This is in addition to the fact that more than ELECTION 3,000 positions of popular election are at stake, including the President 5. SCENARIO 2: TACTICAL VOTE of the Republic, 128 senators, 500 deputies and nine governors. 6. THE ROLE OF THE YOUNG AND THE UNDECIDED On the other hand, 89 million people form the nominal list—the 7. WHAT MAY HAPPEN WITH THE highest number of citizens eligible to vote in Mexico’s history. Within CONGRESS? this, we must highlight the participation of young people, since they 8. THE GOVERNORS are a very important variable for the future of the country. In fact, 12 million millennials will vote for the first time. 9. THE NEXT DAYS AUTHORS A large majority of Mexicans are tired of corruption, insecurity, inequality and decades of poor growth, which is why Mexicans are torn between the continuity of a model implemented by the governments emanating from the Institutional Revolution Party (PRI), currently in power, and by the National Action Party (PAN), and another, led by a man with a leftist ideology that seeks to change the direction of the country. After having contended for the presidency on two previous occasions (2006 and 2012), Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), the former head of Government of Mexico City, is running for the third time, and on this occasion, his supporters believe he is the only candidate that can face the problem of corruption in Mexico and address the country's historical social problems, while the rest of Mexicans see in AMLO a politician that could harm the country’s fragile economic development. It should be noted: although AMLO is considered a leftist politician, his alliance has left room for the Social Encounter Party (PES), a socially conservative political group that seeks to overturn progressive policies in the name of "family values." Meanwhile, AMLO's former party, the PRD, has joined forces with the center-right PAN coalition. 2 THE JULY 1ST ELECTION BATTLE 2. CANDIDATES ANDRÉS MANUEL LÓPEZ OBRADOR richest men in Latin America, to Juntos Haremos Historia (Together We’ll transform the city’s center. Make History): Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional (MORENA), Partido del Trabajo (PT), It is important to highlight that Partido Encuentro Social (PES) December 2017, Lopez Obrador introduced his potential cabinet in an effort to ease fears he Past Position In other words, voters vote for would wreck the economy. In President of MORENA. him and not for the party that this context, AMLO named nominates him. This is the reason several political actors that Resumé he commanded an important have served previous PRI Former presidential candidate exodus of politicians (and governments, such as Esteban of the PRD, PT and MC (2 times); supporters) from other left-wing Moctezuma for the secretary Mayor of Mexico City; President parties, like the PRD, into the of education, or Olga Sanchez of the PRD party; Former PRD candidate for the governorship of MORENA party in 2014—his own Cordero, a former Supreme Court Tabasco (2 times); president of the political party. judge whom Lopez Obrador PRI in the state of Tabasco. wants to be Mexico’s first female Between 2000 and 2005, AMLO interior minister. Education was the head of government of Bachelor’s degree in political Mexico City. He proved to be a For strategic positions such as science from the UNAM. good administrator of one of Finance, AMLO is thinking of the largest metropolises in the Carlos Urzua, a professor at the world. He launched cost-cutting Monterrey Institute of Technology His unique ability to set the measures, improved security and Higher Education, who was political agenda, since his time and stabilized the city’s debts. finance minister of Mexico City as Head of government of To have incidence in the city’s from 2000 to 2003, when AMLO Mexico City, has afforded him more vulnerable groups, AMLO was mayor. great visibility and an important created social programs for follower base. children and the elderly. Also, AMLO has been working closely with Marcelo Ebrard, Over the past 17 years, he has He professionalized the police former Mexico City mayor, who campaigned to become the department and brought played a role as a successor president of the Republic using former New York City Mayor of AMLO’s work in the city. a rhetoric based on honesty and Rudolph Giuliani to help him Nowadays, Ebrard works as a promoting policies aimed at reduce crime in the capital. He political operator for AMLO and helping the poor, thus becoming also promoted public-private some people loyal to him, like the only politician in Mexico who partnerships to revitalize parts former Senator Mario Delgado, has a personal voter base and not a of the city. In fact, he partnered who is running for Federal party-based vote. with Carlos Slim Helu, one of the Deputy of MORENA. 3 THE JULY 1ST ELECTION BATTLE SOME OF THE KEY ACTORS Marcos Fastlicht, Advisor on BEHIND AMLO human rights issues Alfonso Romo, Project He is a real estate entrepreneur, Coordinator construction worker and philanthropist. He is the father- His business history began in in-law of Emilio Azcarraga Jean, the early ‘80s in a restaurant president of Grupo Televisa. If business—then he collaborated AMLO wins, he might be the link with the first Coca-Cola bottler. between AMLO’s government and Years later, he took control of civil society for security issues. Modern Cigarette. His relationship with Carlos Slim took him into Yeidckol Polevnsky Gurwitz, the financial world, as he bought President of MORENA Seguros Comercial America from him, which he then sold to In 2005, she was a PRD candidate ING. He also created the Vector for governor of the State of brokerage house, which continues Mexico. She was the first to operate under his leadership. woman to chair the National Chamber of the Transformation Miguel Torruco Marques, Industry (CANACINTRA). He has Proposed Secretary of Tourism experience as a member of the board of directors of Nacional He is a tourist entrepreneur and Financiera (NAFIN), Banco de former Secretary of Tourism of Comercio Exterior (BANCOMEXT) CDMX. His daughter, Maria Elena and the Consejo Coordinador Torruco, is married to Carlos Slim Empresarial (CCE). Domit, son of Carlos Slim Helu. 4 THE JULY 1ST ELECTION BATTLE RICARDO ANAYA CORTÉS the highly populated Veracruz for Por México al Frente (For Mexico to the Front): the first time, took the party to its Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), Partido de la highest total of states governed in Revolución Democrática (PRD), Movimiento history (12 out of 32 states). Ciudadano (MC) According to political analysts, Past Position one of the reasons for Anaya's rise in politics are his pragmatic President of the PAN. The once called “boy wonder,” Ricardo Anaya’s meteoric rise decisions. And one example in Mexican politics occurred is his presidential run, which Resumé thanks to former PAN President showed that even if his decision Secretary General of the PAN; Gustavo Madero’s support. The created frictions within the Federal Deputy (President of young politician occupied various party, he stood by his decision, the Chamber of Deputies 2013 – 2014); Undersecretary of Tourism leadership positions within the thereby triggering the resignation Planning; Local Deputy of the PAN before becoming president of traditional member party state of Queretaro legislature (PAN of the party, when Gustavo Margarita Zavala. caucus leader 2009 – 2012). Madero decided to run for a seat in Congress. Education Ph.D. in Political Science from the From the party’s presidency, National Autonomous University Anaya has made a name for of Mexico (UNAM); Master’s himself due to the successes Degree in Fiscal Law from the the party has had under his Valley of Mexico University guidance. The party’s impressive (UVM); Bachelor’s Degree in Law from the Autonomous University 2016 run, when they snatched of Queretaro. six governorships previously governed by the PRI—including 5 THE JULY 1ST ELECTION BATTLE JOSÉ ANTONIO MEADE KURIBREÑA essentially the most powerful Todos por México (All for Mexico): Partido department in the Mexican de la Revolución Institucional (PRI), Partido government. Verde Ecologista de México (PVEM), Partido Nueva Alianza Thanks to his past performance, Meade increased his visibility Past Position Jose Antonio Meade is the over the last year, particularly as the PRI struggled to find a Secretary of Finance and ultimate Mexican technocrat. Public Credit. Proficient in multiple candidate who could beat the departments under two different popular Andres Manuel Lopez administrations, “Pepe” Meade Obrador from a pool of potential Resumé has become a political figure that candidates that have to carry the Secretary of Social Development, lays in the intersection between weight of the decisions of the Secretary of Foreign Relations (under President Pena Nieto); right-wing PRI supporters incumbent administration. Secretary of Energy, Deputy and PAN supporters. The only Secretary of Finance, Deputy secretary that remained from the Secretary of Revenues, General Calderon (PAN) administration, Director of Banrural and Financiera Meade is the son of a former Rural (as it was later known) (under PRI Federal Deputy and Deputy President Calderon).
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