RTÉ/Behaviour & Attitudes European Election Exit Poll

RTÉ/Behaviour & Attitudes European Election Exit Poll May 23rd 2014 Prepared for:

J.5582 Introduction

2 Introduction

● This report sets out the findings of an Exit Poll commissioned by RTÉ and carried out by Behaviour & Attitudes. The poll was conducted among a sample of 3,081 voters nationwide, interviewed immediately after they had voted in the Election on Friday, 23rd May, 2014. ● The sample was spread throughout all three European constituencies and undertaken at 175 polling stations. Interviews were conducted face-to-face with randomly selected individuals – throughout the hours of polling from 7am to 10pm in accordance with the 1992 Electoral Act (no interviews took place within 100 yards of a polling station). ● The accuracy level is estimated to be plus or minus 1.7% at a national level, and plus or minus 3.4% at a constituency level. Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to RTÉ and Behaviour & Attitudes.

3 Research Methodology

● A face-to-face Exit Poll was conducted among voters immediately after leaving polling stations on European Election day, Friday, 23rd May, 2013. ● An effective sample of 3,081 voters was interviewed. ● The Poll was undertaken in all three European constituencies. ● 175 polling stations were sampled, distributed proportionate to population within each constituency:

No. of seats No. of No. of Statistical Polling interviews margin of stations error Dublin 3 61 1070 ±3.06%

Midlands 4 56 970 ±3.21% North West South 4 58 1041 ±3.09%

Total 11 175 3,081 ±1.8%

● Specific polling stations within constituency were selected randomly.

4 Voter Selection

Selection of Respondents (Voters) ● In accordance with the 1992 Electoral Act, no interviews took place within 100 yards of a polling station. ● Interviewing was continuous throughout each time-period. ● In the event of refusal at contact, the interviewer noted gender, approximate age and social class, and sought to replace that person at the first available opportunity with a person sharing similar demographic characteristics.

5 Note on Weighting

Two levels of weighting have been applied to this data to ensure accurate reflection of the electorate. 1. Regional Weighting To correct for the regional imbalance in the sample design the constituency totals have been re-weighted to the known electorate size in each constituency as the table below shows:

Dublin Midlands-North- South West

Electorate 799,975 1,175,437 1,205,260

% weighted 25.2 36.9 37.9

2. Demographic Weighting This is a random probability sample survey and should reflect the actual profile of the turnout on the day. However, sampling bias can always occur and we have applied corrective demographic weights to minimise this effect. In practice, given the large sample size these weights only impact on first preference vote by no more than one percentage point in almost all cases. Nonetheless even marginal weighting in our view provides a more precise sample output.

6 Weighting x Population

The table below indicates the weights used.

18+ Population Achieved Weighted Gender % % % Male 51 54 51 Female 49 46 49 Age % % % 18 – 24 12 5 7 25 – 34 22 13 18 35 – 49 29 32 30 50 – 64 21 31 26 65+ 16 19 19 Class % % % AB 13 19 17 C1 28 30 30 C2 21 19 18 DE 31 24 27 F 7 7 8

7 European Elections 2014: Dublin Constituency

8 First Preference Vote: European Election: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

% First Preference Vote

Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin 24 Nessa Childers, Independent 11

Emer Costello, Labour Party 8

Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1

Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12

Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist Party 7 Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14

Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance 6

Jim Tallon, Independent 1 Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0

Gender Age Class Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE % % % % % % % % % Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní 24 26 23 29 26 27 21 14 41 Bhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin

Nessa Childers, Independent 11 7 14 9 11 8 13 13 8

Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 7 9 2 8 7 9 8 8 Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 2 Ireland

Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 13 11 13 9 8 17 14 10

Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 16 12 11 16 14 14 17 9 Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ 7 7 8 7 9 9 6 8 7 Socialist Party

Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 14 13 15 15 16 11 19 5 Brid Smith, People Before Profit 6 5 8 9 3 8 6 5 9 Alliance

Jim Tallon, Independent 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 Raymond Patrick Whitehead, 1 1 0 2 - 1 1 1 1 Direct Democracy Ireland

Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 0 - - - - 0 0 -

Region Dun City City South Total Laoghaire/ Fingal North South Dublin Rathdown % % % % % %

Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin 24 32 21 14 24 27

Nessa Childers, Independent 11 8 10 15 10 13

Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 8 11 9 6 6

Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 3 0 - - 2

Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 11 9 13 20 8

Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 9 15 16 15 16

Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist Party 7 14 4 4 8 6

Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 8 18 21 12 12

Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance 6 5 11 4 3 8

Jim Tallon, Independent 1 1 1 1 2 0

Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 - 2 1 1

Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 0 - - - -

Local Election Party Support – First Preference All Fianna Sinn Green Soc. P./ Total Fine Gael Labour Indep./ Fáil Féin Party PBPA Others % % % % % % % % Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn 24 1 3 4 86 3 14 12 Féin Nessa Childers, Independent 11 11 9 5 2 9 20 7

Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 10 39 3 0 3 4 1

Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 - - - 1 - 3 2

Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 7 8 64 1 5 7 5

Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 58 12 5 2 7 6 1 Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist 7 1 4 3 3 4 18 38 Party Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 10 23 9 2 67 10 3

Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance 6 2 3 4 2 1 14 30

Jim Tallon, Independent 1 1 - 3 - - 2 - Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct 1 - - - - - 2 1 Democracy Ireland Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 - - - - - 0 -

The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. 12 European Election Second Preference Support Levels Versus European Election 1st Preference Support: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections European Election – 1st Preference Paul Raymond Thomas Brid Murphy Patrick Nessa Emer Darcy Mary Eamon Smith Jim Damon Second Preference Lynn Brian Stop the Whitehea Total Childers Costello Direct Fitzpatric Ryan People Tallon Matthew  Boylan Hayes Water dDirect Indep- Labour Democ- k Fianna Green Before Independ Wise Sinn Féin Fine Gael Tax/ Democra endent Party racy Fáil Party Profit ent Fís Nua Socialist cy Ireland Alliance Party Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % % Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn 6 - 9 1 23 3 4 23 6 14 9 - - Féin Nessa Childers, 12 11 - 15 19 14 12 11 18 10 8 10 100 Independent Emer Costello, Labour 9 5 6 - - 7 24 1 21 4 10 - - Party Thomas Darcy, Direct 1 2 - - - 1 1 1 1 4 - 35 - Democracy Ireland Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna 5 4 10 9 - - 8 - 6 - - 12 - Fáil Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 9 2 15 23 - 14 - 2 22 6 8 - - Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist 11 23 11 4 24 7 1 - 5 29 - 12 - Party Eamon Ryan, Green 12 6 14 25 - 19 27 5 - 8 7 - - Party Brid Smith, People 10 21 8 1 8 1 1 42 4 - - 9 - Before Profit Alliance Jim Tallon, Independent 2 2 4 - - 4 2 1 1 3 - 11 - Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct 1 0 1 1 26 - - - - 3 23 - - Democracy Ireland Damon Matthew Wise, 0 1 ------2 - - - - Fís Nua None/no second pref 21 22 22 21 - 30 20 14 15 19 36 11 -

European Election – 1st Preference

Paul Raymond Thomas Brid Murphy Patrick Main Influencing Nessa Emer Darcy Mary Eamon Smith Jim Damon Total Lynn Brian Stop the Whitehea Candidate Factors  Childers Costello Direct Fitzpatric Ryan People Tallon Matthew Boylan Hayes Water dDirect Indep- Labour Democ- k Fianna Green Before Independ Wise Sinn Féin Fine Gael Tax/ Democra endent Party racy Fáil Party Profit ent Fís Nua Socialist cy Ireland Alliance Party Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % %

Personality/ Qualities 30 20 51 27 19 33 32 16 39 28 16 12 -

Party 33 42 14 49 26 44 41 18 20 16 25 36 -

Policies 30 31 27 22 38 16 17 60 35 39 43 52 100

Party Leader 3 2 1 1 - 1 5 3 2 9 - - -

None 5 5 8 1 8 6 4 3 5 8 16 - -

Don't know 0 1 - - 8 - - 1 - - - - -

Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that Q.2 candidate in the European Parliament elections? 14 Reasons for First Preference Vote in European Election Party Support: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support Main Influencing Total Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Candidate Factors  Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % %

Personality/ Qualities 30 32 27 33 20 39 32 21

Party 33 41 49 44 42 20 17 17

Policies 30 17 22 16 31 35 41 51

Party Leader 3 5 1 1 2 2 3 5

None 5 4 1 6 5 5 7 5

Don't know 0 - - - 1 - 1 1

Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that Q.2 candidate in the European Parliament elections? 15 Local Election Versus European Election First Preference: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support Local Election All First Preference Fine Fianna Sinn Green Soc. P./ Total Labour Indep./ Vote  Gael Fáil Féin Party PBPA Others

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 16 66 20 9 1 12 8 3

Labour 12 10 57 8 2 21 7 6

Fianna Fáil 12 5 4 62 2 8 6 6

Sinn Féin 21 3 1 1 75 3 7 8

Green Party 6 3 3 3 1 31 3 2

All Independents/ 32 13 15 17 18 23 68 73 Others Socialist Party/ People Before Profit 9 1 1 3 4 2 24 42 Alliance

Don’t know 1 - - - 1 1 1 1

Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections? 16 Local Election Versus 2011 General Election: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections

General Election 2011 Local Election All First Preference Total Fine Fianna Sinn Green Soc. P./ Don’t Did not  Labour Indep./ Party Vote Gael Fáil Féin Party PBPA know vote Others

% % % % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 16 39 7 5 - 3 4 - 18 16

Labour 12 9 27 10 1 13 3 3 13 10

Fianna Fáil 12 9 3 54 2 2 6 - 8 9

Sinn Féin 21 9 21 13 82 5 7 4 14 26

Green Party 6 5 7 - 1 53 6 3 1 9

All Independents/ 32 28 35 17 14 21 75 90 43 29 Others

Socialist Party/ People Before Profit 9 4 12 6 4 - 30 64 8 7 Alliance

Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the European elections? Q.10 To which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in the 2011 General Election? 17 Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – Candidate Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference

Paul Raymond Thomas Brid Murphy Patrick Nessa Emer Darcy Mary Eamon Smith Jim Damon Factors of Lynn Brian Stop the Whitehea Total Childers Costello Direct Fitzpatric Ryan People Tallon Matthew Importance  Boylan Hayes Water d Direct Indep- Labour Democ- k Fianna Green Before Independ Wise Sinn Féin Fine Gael Tax/ Democra endent Party racy Fáil Party Profit ent Fís Nua Socialist cy Ireland Alliance Party Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % I wanted a strong voice to stand up for Ireland/this 85 87 90 82 92 81 85 88 80 92 92 80 - constituency in Europe I wanted someone with the experience to represent 72 63 74 82 23 69 89 67 84 63 33 47 100 Ireland/this constituency in Europe I wanted to protest against the 48 78 48 22 93 43 13 71 25 66 75 79 100 Government. I wanted to protest against the EU and 36 59 38 15 64 25 15 50 17 51 51 57 - its policies towards Ireland None 2 87 90 82 92 81 85 88 80 92 92 80 -

In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in Q.3 deciding who to vote for, or not? 18 Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – European Election Party Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support

 Factors of Importance Total Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % % I wanted a strong voice to stand up for Ireland/this 85 85 82 81 87 80 90 90 constituency in Europe I wanted someone with the experience to represent 72 89 82 69 63 84 65 65 Ireland/this constituency in Europe

I wanted to protest against 48 13 22 43 78 25 62 69 the Government.

I wanted to protest against the EU and its policies 36 15 15 25 59 17 46 50 towards Ireland

None 2 3 3 4 2 3 1 1

In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in Q.3 deciding who to vote for, or not? 19 Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Candidate Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference Paul Raymond Thomas Brid Murphy Patrick Nessa Emer Darcy Mary Eamon Smith Jim Damon Factors of Lynn Brian Stop the Whitehea Total Childers Costello Direct Fitzpatric Ryan People Tallon Matthew  Boylan Hayes Water dDirect Importance Indep- Labour Democ- k Fianna Green Before Independ Wise Sinn Féin Fine Gael Tax/ Democra endent Party racy Fáil Party Profit ent Fís Nua Socialist cy Ireland Alliance Party Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % % The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, 30 42 32 21 36 31 15 32 21 35 42 12 - and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice. The announcement of measures to support 20 32 19 18 - 24 13 14 11 23 11 10 - First Time House Buyers The arrest and questioning of Gerry 20 32 23 11 27 18 15 10 17 25 18 - - Adams The exit of Ireland from 33 38 31 27 11 28 41 31 27 33 33 21 - the Troika Bailout The forthcoming introduction of water 55 83 59 25 82 52 21 80 27 84 69 42 - charges Reduced unemployment 44 61 34 45 42 36 45 34 32 49 51 25 - figures The removal of some discretionary medical 55 80 61 35 82 55 24 72 29 76 85 22 100 cards The introduction of a 51 79 56 24 57 43 22 73 27 70 61 31 100 Property Tax

None 17 5 12 25 - 26 25 8 36 5 7 43 -

In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in Q.4 deciding who to vote for, or not? 20 Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Party Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

The exit of Ireland from the 33 41 27 28 38 27 31 32 Troika Bailout

The forthcoming introduction 55 21 25 52 83 27 71 82 of water charges

Reduced unemployment 44 45 45 36 61 32 38 40 figures

The removal of some 55 24 35 55 80 29 68 74 discretionary medical cards The introduction of a Property 51 22 24 43 79 27 63 72 Tax

None 17 25 25 26 5 36 10 7

In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in Q.4 deciding who to vote for, or not? 21 Satisfaction with Government – European Election Candidate Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference Paul Raymond Thomas Brid Murphy Patrick Nessa Emer Darcy Mary Eamon Smith Jim Damon Satisfaction with Lynn Brian Stop the Whitehea Total Childers Costello Direct Fitzpatric Ryan People Tallon Matthew Government Boylan Hayes Water dDirect Indep- Labour Democ- k Fianna Green Before Independ Wise Sinn Féin Fine Gael Tax/ Democra endent Party racy Fáil Party Profit ent Fís Nua Socialist cy Ireland Alliance Party Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Satisfied with the way the government 26 5 17 38 7 20 69 7 44 9 17 15 - is running the country

Dissatisfied with the way the government 70 92 78 53 93 77 27 93 49 90 83 85 100 is running the country

Don’t know 4 3 5 9 - 4 5 - 6 1 - - -

Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? 22 Satisfaction with Government – European Election Party Support Base: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections

European Election Party Support Satisfaction with Total Government Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Satisfied with the way the government is running the 26 69 38 20 5 44 12 8 country

Dissatisfied with the way the government is running 70 27 53 77 92 49 86 91 the country

Don’t know 4 5 9 4 3 6 2 1

Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? 23 Economic Outlook – European Election Candidate Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference Paul Raymond Thomas Brid Murphy Patrick Nessa Emer Darcy Mary Eamon Smith Jim Damon Lynn Brian Stop the Whitehea Economic Outlook  Total Childers Costello Direct Fitzpatric Ryan People Tallon Matthew Boylan Hayes Water dDirect Indep- Labour Democ- k Fianna Green Before Independ Wise Sinn Féin Fine Gael Tax/ Democra endent Party racy Fáil Party Profit ent Fís Nua Socialist cy Ireland Alliance Party Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % %

The economy in Ireland in the past 44 22 40 63 6 43 72 28 69 22 32 70 - 12 months has been getting better

The economy in Ireland in the past 30 31 34 26 42 33 21 47 21 31 18 30 - 12 months has stayed the same

The economy in Ireland in the past 26 46 26 11 52 23 7 24 10 47 50 - 100 12 months has been getting worse

Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, Q.12 getting worse, or staying the same? 24 Economic Outlook – European Election Party Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support View of Economy  Total Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % % %

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has 44 72 63 43 22 69 32 25 been getting better

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has 30 21 26 33 31 21 36 40 stayed the same

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has 26 7 11 23 46 10 32 35 been getting worse

Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, Q.12 getting worse, or staying the same? 25 Household Financial Situation – European Election Candidate Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference Paul Raymond Thomas Brid Murphy Patrick Nessa Emer Darcy Mary Eamon Smith Jim Damon Household Financial Lynn Brian Stop the Whitehea Total Childers Costello Direct Fitzpatric Ryan People Tallon Matthew Situation Boylan Hayes Water d Direct Indep- Labour Democ- k Fianna Green Before Independ Wise Sinn Féin Fine Gael Tax/ Democra endent Party racy Fáil Party Profit ent Fís Nua Socialist cy Ireland Alliance Party Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % %

The financial situation of your household in the 13 4 11 13 - 11 25 10 26 4 16 15 - past 12 months has been getting better

The financial situation of your household in the 41 33 44 55 23 40 47 43 41 38 32 64 - past 12 months has stayed the same

The financial situation of your household in the 46 62 45 32 77 49 28 48 33 59 52 21 100 past 12 months has been getting worse

Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been Q.13 getting better, getting worse, or staying the same? 26 Household Financial Situation – European Election Party Support Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support Household Financial Total Situation Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % %

The financial situation of your household in the past 13 25 13 11 4 26 9 7 12 months has been getting better

The financial situation of your household in the past 41 47 55 40 33 41 41 40 12 months has stayed the same

The financial situation of your household in the past 46 28 32 49 62 33 50 53 12 months has been getting worse

Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been Q.13 getting better, getting worse, or staying the same? 27 Dublin Constituency Interpretation & Analysis

28 Interpretation & Analysis

Reduced to just a three seat constituency since 2009, Dublin was always going to be the most hard-fought of all three Euro constituencies. Indeed, in the Behaviour & Attitudes/Sunday Times pre-election Opinion Poll conducted in the weeks leading up to the election, a quarter of all potential voters in the constituency remained undecided as to how they would cast their vote on election day. At that stage, we noted in our commentary that the undecided bloc was heavily skewed towards potential female voters, and that it was this group which might well have the final say on the ultimate seat tally. That poll indicated a first preference support level for Sinn Féin’s Lynn Boylan of 19%, followed by Brian Hayes of Fine Gael on 16%, with both of these candidates likely to be elected, with a subsequent dogfight for the final seat amongst any one of five other contenders. Based upon our exit poll, Lynn Boylan of Sinn Féin is set to be returned as Dublin Euro MEP as early as the first count, and will most certainly top the poll in the capital. Boylan has performed well across all age groups, amongst males and females equally, and peaks at 41% of all first preferences cast by C2DE, blue collar workers. As many as three candidates then remain in the hunt for the final two seats – Eamon Ryan of the Green Party, Brian Hayes of Fine Gael, and Mary Fitzpatrick of Fianna Fáil.

29 Interpretation & Analysis

Ryan’s appeal is across the board with regard to gender and age groupings, and he actually leads the field amongst white collar and professional workers. Brian Hayes, at 14% support in the exit poll, is neck and neck with Ryan, although the Fine Gael candidate will be disappointed that he has not managed to match his pre-election poll support levels on the day. Fianna Fáil seemed to have chosen well in selecting Mary Fitzpatrick as their candidate in Dublin, given her perceived reputation as something of an anti-Fianna Fáil establishment agitator during the reign of Bertie Ahern in her own constituency of Dublin Central. However, she looks set to fall in late count eliminations. Labour performed poorly in the initial counts and Costello did not get much of a lift from harder left eliminations, exiting relatively early. Transfers were, of course, always set to decide the final two seats. Subsequently, Ryan pulled ahead of the pack slightly, benefiting from transfers from Murphy and later again, on the elimination of Fitzpatrick. Our exit poll deemed Ryan elected without reaching the quota and it all remaining too close to call between Childers and Hayes, but the latter perhaps edging it by a hair’s breadth. With a margin this tight, eighth count transfers in a poll - even one this large and broadly based - make it perhaps too close to call. The battle for the final seat is likely to be nail-biting.

30 European Elections 2014: Midlands North West Constituency

31 First Preference Vote: European Election: Midlands North West Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

% First Preference Vote

Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil 10 Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 13 Mark Dearey, Green Party 2 T.J. Fay, Independent 1 Mark Fitzsimons, Independent 0 Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent 20 Pat The Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil 11 Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 Marian Harkin, Independent 11 Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7 Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party 4 Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 16 Ronan Mullan, Independent 4 Cordelia Níc Fhearraigh, Fís Nua 0

The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. 32 First Preference Vote: European Election: Midlands North West Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

Gender Age Class Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE F % % % % % % % % % % Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil 10 10 9 12 9 8 11 11 9 9 Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 13 15 11 14 19 9 12 9 17 8 Mark Dearey, Green Party 2 2 2 - 3 3 1 3 1 - T.J. Fay, Independent 1 1 1 - - 2 1 1 1 1 Mark Fitzsimons, Independent 0 - 1 - - 0 0 - 1 - Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, 20 20 20 33 23 21 15 18 23 14 Independent Pat The Cope Gallagher, Fianna 11 11 11 13 7 10 12 10 10 15 Fáil Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 Ireland Marian Harkin, Independent 11 9 14 9 11 12 11 13 10 12 Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7 8 5 3 6 6 8 6 6 11 Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party 4 3 5 1 3 5 4 4 5 - Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 16 15 17 11 12 17 18 19 11 26 Ronan Mullan, Independent 4 5 3 3 4 5 4 4 5 3 Cordelia Níc Fhearraigh, Fís 0 0 1 - 1 1 0 0 1 - Nua

The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. 33 First Preference Vote: European Election: Midlands North West Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

Region Cavan, Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Kildare, Laois, Total Leitrim, Louth, Roscommon, Longford, Meath, Monaghan Sligo Offaly, Westmeath % % % % Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil 10 6 4 16 Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 13 18 8 13 Mark Dearey, Green Party 2 3 2 1 T.J. Fay, Independent 1 1 1 1 Mark Fitzsimons, Independent 0 - 1 0 Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent 20 12 26 19 Pat The Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil 11 25 8 5 Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 0 1 Marian Harkin, Independent 11 8 16 9 Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7 2 14 3 Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party 4 3 3 5 Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 16 15 11 20 Ronan Mullan, Independent 4 5 4 4 Cordelia Níc Fhearraigh, Fís Nua 0 - 0 1 Don’t know - - - -

The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. 34 First Preference Vote: European Election: Midlands North West Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

Local Election Party Support – First Preference All Fianna Sinn Green Soc. P./ Total Fine Gael Labour Indep./ Fáil Féin Party PBPA Others % % % % % % % % Thomas Byrne, Fianna Fáil 10 2 - 28 3 7 5 -

Matt Carthy, Sinn Féin 13 2 3 4 65 - 5 15

Mark Dearey, Green Party 2 1 - 0 1 66 1 11

T.J. Fay, Independent 1 - - 0 - - 3 -

Mark Fitzsimons, Independent 0 - - - 1 - 1 12

Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, Independent 20 11 21 14 15 5 36 28

Pat The Cope Gallagher, Fianna Fáil 11 1 8 32 4 - 4 -

Ben Gilroy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 - 2 - - - 3 -

Marian Harkin, Independent 11 9 14 7 5 4 21 -

Jim Higgins, Fine Gael 7 23 - 1 2 - 2 -

Lorraine Higgins, Labour Party 4 2 38 2 2 7 4 22

Mairead McGuinness, Fine Gael 16 45 11 8 2 - 8 11

Ronan Mullan, Independent 4 5 2 3 1 5 7 - Cordelia Níc Fhearraigh, Fís Nua ------

European Election – 1st Preference Luke Pat The Ben Mark Mairead Cordelia Thomas Mark ‘Ming’ Cope Gilroy, Marian Jim Lorraine Ronan Second Matt T.J. Fay, Fitzsimo McGuinn Níc Total Byrne, Dearey, Flanaga Gallagh Direct Harkin, Higgins, Higgins, Mullan,  Carthy, Indepen ns, ess, Fhearrai Preference Fianna Green n, er, Democr Indepen Fine Labour Indepen Sinn Féin dent Indepen Fine gh, Fís Fáil Party Indepen Fianna acy dent Gael Party dent dent Gael Nua dent Fáil Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Thomas Byrne, 9 - 8 5 - - 3 53 8 5 - 2 3 8 - Fianna Fáil Matt Carthy, Sinn 5 4 - - - - 16 6 11 4 1 4 1 3 - Féin Mark Dearey, Green 1 2 1 - - - 1 - - 1 - 5 1 - - Party T.J. Fay, Independent 1 - 1 - - 33 0 1 - - - - - 2 34 Mark Fitzsimons, 2 1 1 5 37 - 2 - 12 2 3 - 1 5 - Independent Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, 10 9 32 17 28 - - 9 12 18 3 3 7 10 - Independent Pat The Cope 8 50 8 - - - 6 - - 5 - 3 3 5 - Gallagher, Fianna Fáil Ben Gilroy, Direct 1 2 1 - - - 2 - - 1 - 3 - - - Democracy Ireland Marian Harkin, 12 10 6 17 27 - 20 4 17 - 12 15 14 21 21 Independent Jim Higgins, Fine 8 1 1 5 - - 2 2 - 7 - 2 41 2 - Gael Lorraine Higgins, 4 2 1 21 - - 4 2 - 4 5 - 5 7 - Labour Party Mairead McGuinness, 12 3 2 15 - - 8 5 14 25 59 28 - 17 21 Fine Gael Ronan Mullan, 4 1 4 - - - 9 1 - 6 3 - 6 - 23 Independent Cordelia Níc 1 - 2 5 - - 1 - - - - 7 1 - - Fhearraigh, Fís Nua None/no second pref 9 - 8 5 - - 3 53 8 5 - 2 3 8 -

The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. 36 Reasons for First Preference European Election Candidate Support: Midlands North West Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference

Luke Pat The Ben Main Influencing Mark Mairead Cordelia Thomas Mark ‘Ming’ Cope Gilroy, Marian Jim Lorraine Ronan Candidate Factors Total Matt T.J. Fay, Fitzsimo McGuinn Níc Byrne, Dearey, Flanaga Gallagh Direct Harkin, Higgins, Higgins, Mullan,  Carthy, Indepen ns, ess, Fhearrai Fianna Green n, er, Democr Indepen Fine Labour Indepen Sinn Féin dent Indepen Fine gh, Fís Fáil Party Indepen Fianna acy dent Gael Party dent dent Gael Nua dent Fáil Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

Personality/ 40 24 28 30 29 67 52 34 47 52 36 49 41 52 - Qualities

Party 29 51 41 30 - - 9 45 36 9 43 38 35 13 21

Policies 22 14 22 35 53 33 32 16 - 24 18 9 14 23 79

Party Leader 2 5 4 - - - 1 - - 2 1 - 3 - -

None 5 3 5 - 18 - 4 3 17 11 3 4 4 8 -

Don't know 2 2 - 5 - - 3 3 - 3 - - 3 4 -

Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that Q.2 candidate in the European Parliament elections? 37 Reasons for First Preference Vote in European Election Party Support: Midlands North West Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support Main Influencing Total Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Candidate Factors  Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Personality/ Qualities 40 40 49 29 28 30 51 -

Party 29 37 38 48 41 30 10 -

Policies 22 15 9 15 22 35 29 -

Party Leader 2 2 - 3 4 - 1 -

None 5 4 4 3 5 - 7 -

Don't know 2 2 - 2 - 5 3 -

Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that Q.2 candidate in the European Parliament elections? 38 Local Election Versus European Election First Preference: Midlands North West Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support

Local Election First All  Fianna Sinn Green Soc. P./ Preference Vote Total Fine Gael Labour Indep./ Fáil Féin Party PBPA Others

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 24 73 10 4 3 10 16 73

Labour 4 2 39 2 1 - 4 2

Fianna Fáil 26 10 14 76 9 5 17 10

Sinn Féin 15 3 7 5 74 5 8 3

Green Party 2 - 3 1 - 65 1 -

All Independents/ 29 13 27 12 12 16 54 13 Others

Socialist Party/ People 1 0 5 - 1 5 1 0 Before Profit Alliance

Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections? 39 Local Election Versus 2011 General Election: Midlands North West Base: All Midlands North West Voters in EP Elections

General Election 2011 Local Election All First Preference Total Fine Fianna Sinn Green Soc. P./ Don’t Did not  Labour Indep./ Party Vote Gael Fáil Féin Party PBPA know vote Others

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 24 56 12 5 4 - 1 - 16 18

Labour 4 3 19 2 2 - 2 - - 5

Fianna Fáil 26 12 7 68 6 7 10 - 29 29

Sinn Féin 15 9 13 7 72 - 5 - 16 12

Green Party 2 - 6 - - 85 2 - - 2

All Independents/ 29 21 42 17 17 8 80 100 37 31 Others

Socialist Party/ People Before Profit 1 - - 0 1 8 2 100 4 1 Alliance

Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the European elections? Q.10 To which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in the 2011 General Election? 40 Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – Candidate Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference

Luke Pat The Ben Mark Mairead Cordelia Thomas Mark ‘Ming’ Cope Gilroy, Marian Jim Lorraine Ronan Factors of Matt T.J. Fay, Fitzsimo McGuinn Níc Total Byrne, Dearey, Flanaga Gallagh Direct Harkin, Higgins, Higgins, Mullan, Importance  Carthy, Indepen ns, ess, Fhearrai Fianna Green n, er, Democr Indepen Fine Labour Indepen Sinn Féin dent Indepen Fine gh, Fís Fáil Party Indepen Fianna acy dent Gael Party dent dent Gael Nua dent Fáil Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % I wanted a strong voice to stand up for Ireland/this 86 88 89 81 82 100 90 80 84 78 83 92 85 84 100 constituency in Europe I wanted someone with the experience to represent 78 82 78 62 90 67 78 83 50 76 80 80 81 59 66 Ireland/this constituency in Europe I wanted to protest against 46 47 68 37 82 100 59 42 51 52 19 40 20 36 79 the Government. I wanted to protest against the EU and its 46 39 63 39 82 100 66 45 40 47 17 28 29 42 79 policies towards Ireland

None 6 6 4 14 10 - 3 7 - 8 11 - 6 5 -

In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in Q.3 deciding who to vote for, or not? 41 Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – European Election Party Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support

 Factors of Importance Total Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % % % I wanted a strong voice to stand up for Ireland/this 86 84 92 84 89 81 86 - constituency in Europe I wanted someone with the experience to represent 78 81 80 83 78 62 75 - Ireland/this constituency in Europe

I wanted to protest against 46 20 40 44 68 37 55 - the Government.

I wanted to protest against the EU and its policies 46 26 28 42 63 39 58 - towards Ireland

None 6 7 - 7 4 14 5 -

In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in Q.3 deciding who to vote for, or not? 42 Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Candidate Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections European Election – 1st Preference Luke Pat The Ben Mark Mairead Cordelia Thomas Mark ‘Ming’ Cope Gilroy, Marian Jim Lorraine Ronan Factors of Matt T.J. Fay, Fitzsimo McGuinn Níc Total Byrne, Dearey, Flanaga Gallagh Direct Harkin, Higgins, Higgins, Mullan,  Carthy, Indepen ns, ess, Fhearrai Importance Fianna Green n, er, Democr Indepen Fine Labour Indepen Sinn Féin dent Indepen Fine gh, Fís Fáil Party Indepen Fianna acy dent Gael Party dent dent Gael Nua dent Fáil Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % The handling of 34 46 47 45 54 33 46 24 37 42 16 13 17 23 23 controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice. The announcement 32 33 36 33 45 33 44 20 21 40 34 17 20 19 23 of measures to support First Time House Buyers The arrest and 22 23 29 24 20 - 24 20 12 25 18 19 19 7 23 questioning of Gerry Adams The exit of Ireland 36 33 38 41 37 - 42 21 37 38 33 46 35 35 45 from the Troika Bailout The forthcoming 52 64 71 33 81 100 69 44 84 52 25 41 26 49 44 introduction of water charges Reduced 46 52 54 28 63 33 54 28 54 43 47 44 40 47 44 unemployment figures The removal of 52 60 69 38 81 100 60 48 54 52 30 40 34 51 44 some discretionary medical cards The introduction of a 52 53 74 37 71 100 69 46 71 50 26 43 29 54 44 Property Tax None 26 20 17 41 19 - 15 38 16 29 38 32 36 29 34 In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in Q.3 deciding who to vote for, or not? 43 Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Party Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support Factors of Importance  Total Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA % % % % % % % % The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan 34 16 13 35 47 45 42 - Shatter as Minister for Justice. The announcement of measures to support First 32 24 17 26 36 33 39 - Time House Buyers The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams 22 19 19 21 29 24 22 -

The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout 36 35 46 26 38 41 40 -

The forthcoming introduction of water charges 52 26 41 53 71 33 62 -

Reduced unemployment figures 46 42 44 39 54 28 50 -

The removal of some discretionary medical cards 52 33 40 54 69 38 57 - The introduction of a Property Tax 52 28 43 49 74 37 62 - None 26 36 32 29 17 41 21 -

In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in Q.3 deciding who to vote for, or not? 44 Satisfaction with Government – European Election Candidate Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference Luke Pat The Ben Mark Mairead Cordelia Thomas Mark ‘Ming’ Cope Gilroy, Marian Jim Lorraine Ronan Satisfaction with Matt T.J. Fay, Fitzsimo McGuinn Níc Total Byrne, Dearey, Flanaga Gallagh Direct Harkin, Higgins, Higgins, Mullan, Government Carthy, Indepen ns, ess, Fhearrai Fianna Green n, er, Democr Indepen Fine Labour Indepen Sinn Féin dent Indepen Fine gh, Fís Fáil Party Indepen Fianna acy dent Gael Party dent dent Gael Nua dent Fáil Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Satisfied with the way the government is 27 15 6 36 9 33 15 12 14 20 68 41 64 25 21 running the country Dissatisfied with the way the government is 66 80 89 45 91 67 79 81 86 71 30 54 28 68 79 running the country

Don’t know 6 5 5 19 - - 6 7 - 9 2 5 8 7 -

Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? 45 Satisfaction with Government – European Election Party Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support Satisfaction with Total Government Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Satisfied with the way the government is running the 27 65 41 14 6 36 18 - country

Dissatisfied with the way the government is running 66 28 54 80 89 45 76 - the country

Don’t know 6 6 5 6 5 19 6 -

Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? 46 Economic Outlook – European Election Candidate Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference Luke Pat The Ben Mark Mairead Cordelia Thomas Mark ‘Ming’ Cope Gilroy, Marian Jim Lorraine Ronan Economic Outlook Matt T.J. Fay, Fitzsimo McGuinn Níc Total Byrne, Dearey, Flanaga Gallagh Direct Harkin, Higgins, Higgins, Mullan,  Carthy, Indepen ns, ess, Fhearrai Fianna Green n, er, Democr Indepen Fine Labour Indepen Sinn Féin dent Indepen Fine gh, Fís Fáil Party Indepen Fianna acy dent Gael Party dent dent Gael Nua dent Fáil Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months 27 22 16 53 9 - 17 14 - 24 40 44 50 30 56 has been getting better The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months 40 45 31 25 28 67 39 44 60 39 44 42 42 51 23 has stayed the same The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months 33 33 52 22 63 33 44 42 40 37 16 15 7 19 21 has been getting worse

Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, Q.12 getting worse, or staying the same? 47 Economic Outlook – European Election Party Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support View of Economy  Total Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % % %

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has 27 47 44 18 16 53 20 - been getting better

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has 40 43 42 44 31 25 41 - stayed the same

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has 33 10 15 38 52 22 39 - been getting worse

Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, Q.12 getting worse, or staying the same? 48 Household Financial Situation – European Election Candidate Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference Luke Pat The Ben Mark Mairead Cordelia Household Thomas Mark ‘Ming’ Cope Gilroy, Marian Jim Lorraine Ronan Matt T.J. Fay, Fitzsimo McGuinn Níc Financial Total Byrne, Dearey, Flanaga Gallagh Direct Harkin, Higgins, Higgins, Mullan, Carthy, Indepen ns, ess, Fhearrai Situation Fianna Green n, er, Democr Indepen Fine Labour Indepen Sinn Féin dent Indepen Fine gh, Fís Fáil Party Indepen Fianna acy dent Gael Party dent dent Gael Nua dent Fáil Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months 8 6 5 16 - - 6 2 - 6 14 5 16 6 - has been getting better

The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months 53 51 40 65 55 33 49 53 31 44 67 60 63 67 79 has stayed the same

The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months 40 43 55 19 45 67 45 45 69 50 19 35 21 27 21 has been getting worse

Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been Q.13 getting better, getting worse, or staying the same? 49 Household Financial Situation – European Election Party Support Base: All Midlands North West Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support Household Financial Total Situation Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % % % The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been 8 16 5 4 5 16 5 - getting better The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has stayed the 53 64 60 52 40 65 49 - same The financial situation of your household in the past 12 months has been 40 21 35 44 55 19 45 - getting worse

Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been Q.13 getting better, getting worse, or staying the same? 50 Midlands North West Constituency Interpretation & Analysis

51 Interpretation & Analysis

A four seat constituency, Midlands-North-West sprawls from Donegal in the North down to Galway and Mayo in the West, and into Laois/Offaly and the Midlands. Given the geographical spread of the constituency, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are running two candidates, with each emanating from different ends of the constituency. Based upon today’s exit poll, it is a certainty that Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan will be elected as MEP for Midlands-North-West, topping the poll and making it over the line in the early stages of the count. Flanagan’s support is steady across all socio demographic groupings, albeit peaking amongst the younger 18-34 year old cohort. A four seat constituency, next in line to be elected will be Mairead McGuinness of Fine Gael. McGuinness will capture circa 16% of the first preference vote, and will benefit from in or around 60% of running mate Jim Higgin’s transfers upon elimination, propelling her over the line. It may take many counts, based on a number of successive eliminations, before McGuinness is elected. Fianna Fáil stalwart Pat the Cope Gallagher at 11% is neck and neck with his running mate, Thomas Byrne on 10%. Neither appear to be attracting significant transfers, so it is likely that whoever can stay ahead will be elected by virtue of their party rival’s transfers on elimination.

52 Interpretation & Analysis

We are then in a battle for the fourth and final seat between Marian Harkin, sitting independent MEP and Matt Carthy of Sinn Féin. Our exit poll suggests Harkin is trailing Carthy on first preferences by a couple of points. Crucially Harkin is significantly more transfer-friendly than Carthy, and this could see Harkin pip Carthy at the post, come the end of the count, drawing on transfers from Lorraine Higgins of Labour, Ronan Mullan Independent, and even Fine Gael’s Higgins.

53 European Elections 2014: South Constituency

54 First Preference Vote: European Election: South Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

% First Preference Vote

Richard Cahill, Independent 3 Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael 9 Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 26 Jillian Godsil, Independent 1 Simon Harris, Fine Gael 7 Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil 5 Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democrats (The National Party) 1 Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 12 Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin 17 Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Independent 5 Peter O'Loughlin, Independent 2 Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua 1 Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party 5 Phil Prendergast, Labour Party 5 Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland 1

Gender Age Class Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE F % % % % % % % % % % Richard Cahill, Independent 3 2 4 6 4 2 2 3 3 1

Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael 9 5 12 7 9 8 9 8 8 18

Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 26 25 27 24 23 26 27 23 28 30

Jillian Godsil, Independent 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1

Simon Harris, Fine Gael 7 6 7 5 7 8 6 9 5 7

Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil 5 5 4 10 5 4 4 7 3 4

Theresa Heaney, Catholic 1 1 2 - 2 1 2 1 1 1 Democrats (The National Party)

Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 12 16 8 14 15 11 12 13 10 19

Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin 17 19 16 19 22 19 15 14 22 8

Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, 5 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 4 2 Independent Peter O'Loughlin, Independent 2 2 2 - 2 1 2 2 1 1

Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua 1 0 1 - 1 1 0 1 0 -

Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party 5 5 6 3 4 8 5 7 4 6

Phil Prendergast, Labour Party 5 5 6 5 2 4 7 4 7 2 Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy 1 2 1 - 1 2 2 2 1 - Ireland

Region Clare, Limerick, Carlow, Kilkenny, Total Cork, Kerry Tipperary Waterford, Wexford % % % % Richard Cahill, Independent 3 2 4 3 Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael 9 14 6 4 Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 26 26 31 21 Jillian Godsil, Independent 1 2 1 1 Simon Harris, Fine Gael 7 1 4 16 Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil 5 3 6 5 Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democrats (The 1 1 1 2 National Party) Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 12 12 16 9

Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin 17 24 11 15 Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Independent 5 5 8 4 Peter O'Loughlin, Independent 2 1 1 3 Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua 1 0 1 0 Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party 5 4 5 7 Phil Prendergast, Labour Party 5 4 6 7 Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 1 2

Local Election Party Support – First Preference All Fianna Sinn Green Soc. P./ Total Fine Gael Labour Indep./ Fáil Féin Party PBPA Others

Richard Cahill, Independent 3 2 2 2 - - 6 10

Deirdre Clune, Fine Gael 9 24 5 2 2 - 4 -

Brian Crowley, Fianna Fáil 26 17 18 59 4 7 19 18

Jillian Godsil, Independent 1 1 - - - - 5 -

Simon Harris, Fine Gael 7 14 13 4 - 5 3 -

Kieran Hartley, Fianna Fáil 5 3 - 12 3 - 2 - Theresa Heaney, Catholic Democrats (The 1 1 1 1 - - 2 - National Party) Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 12 27 3 5 4 - 10 -

Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn Féin 17 2 - 7 80 - 15 28

Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, Independent 5 3 4 1 4 4 13 10

Peter O'Loughlin, Independent 2 1 1 2 - 6 3 7

Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís Nua 1 - - 0 2 4 0 10

Grace O'Sullivan, Green Party 5 3 5 2 1 66 8 9

Phil Prendergast, Labour Party 5 1 47 2 - 9 6 9

Jan Van De Ven, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 1 1 1 - 3 -

The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. 58 European Election Second Preference Support Levels Versus European Election 1st Preference Support: South Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections European Election – 1st Preference Diarmui Peter Phil Jan Van Richard Brian Jillian Simon Kieran Theresa Sean Liadh Ní Dónal Grace Second Deirdre d Patrick O'Loughl Prender De Ven, Total Cahill, Crowley, Godsil, Harris, Hartley Heaney, Kelly, Riada, Ó'Ríordá O'Sulliva Clune, O'Flynn, in, gast, Direct Preference  Independ Fianna Independ Fine ,Fianna Catholic Fine Sinn in, Fís n, Green Fine Gael Indepen Indepen Labour Democ. ent Fáil ent Gael Fáil Democrats Gael Féin Nua Party dent dent Party Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Richard Cahill, 3 - - 1 17 2 - 9 3 4 11 10 - 4 3 - Independent Deirdre Clune, Fine 9 - - 9 6 22 - 16 30 3 4 - - 8 9 - Gael Brian Crowley, Fianna 11 16 8 - 6 11 53 26 15 12 9 6 - 12 10 7 Fáil Jillian Godsil, 3 12 4 1 - - - - 2 5 3 - - 2 4 8 Independent Simon Harris, Fine 7 - 30 3 8 - 2 - 14 3 - 18 - 3 8 - Gael Kieran Hartley, Fianna 9 - 3 29 - 2 - - 3 2 - - - 3 3 - Fáil Theresa Heaney, 2 - 2 2 - 2 - - - 1 3 5 - 5 - 6 Catholic Democrats (The National Party) Sean Kelly, Fine Gael 10 4 26 16 7 20 2 - - 4 8 7 - 4 16 -

Liadh Ní Riada, Sinn 6 7 5 7 - - 6 17 4 - 16 8 28 9 8 12 Féin Diarmuid Patrick 4 7 - 2 26 1 2 - 3 9 - 16 15 3 3 - O'Flynn, Independent

Peter O'Loughlin, 2 6 - 1 - 1 - - - 3 11 - - - 2 6 Independent Dónal Ó'Ríordáin, Fís 1 7 1 0 - - 2 - - 2 - - - 1 - 6 Nua Grace O'Sullivan, 4 4 2 3 - 7 7 6 3 6 5 8 - - 3 5 Green Party Phil Prendergast, 4 3 3 4 - 11 4 - 3 1 5 - - 14 - 6 Labour Party Jan Van De Ven, 1 - - - 6 1 - - - 4 1 5 - - - - Direct Democracy Ireland Don't know ------

The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 59 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. Reasons for First Preference European Election Candidate Support: South Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference

Main Influencing Theresa Diarmui Peter Phil Jan Van Richard Brian Jillian Simon Kieran Sean Liadh Ní Dónal Grace Candidate Total Deirdre Heaney, d Patrick O'Loughl Prender De Ven, Cahill, Crowley, Godsil, Harris, Hartley, Kelly, Riada, Ó'Ríordá O'Sulliva Clune, Catholic O'Flynn, in, gast, Direct Factors  Independ Fianna Independ Fine Fianna Fine Sinn in, Fís n, Green Fine Gael Democra Indepen Indepen Labour Democ. ent Fáil ent Gael Fáil Gael Féin Nua Party ts dent dent Party Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % The personality or qualities of 46 42 42 64 49 52 45 50 48 34 37 23 46 33 33 27 the candidate The party of the 28 18 44 21 14 24 42 6 31 38 15 13 - 24 39 6 candidate The policies of 19 26 8 12 37 16 11 36 15 18 39 48 54 37 13 56 the candidate The candidate’s 2 - 1 1 - - - - 2 3 - - - 2 6 - party leader

None of these 4 3 5 1 - 7 2 7 4 6 9 17 - 3 5 11

Don’t know 1 10 - 1 - 2 - - - 1 - - - - 3 -

Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that Q.2 candidate in the European Parliament elections? 60 Reasons for First Preference Vote in European Election Party Support: South Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support Main Influencing Total Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Candidate Factors  Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % %

The personality or qualities 46 47 33 61 34 33 38 - of the candidate

The party of the candidate 28 33 39 24 38 24 13 -

The policies of the 19 13 13 12 18 37 40 - candidate

The candidate’s party 2 1 6 1 3 2 - - leader

None of these 4 5 5 1 6 3 8 -

Don’t know 1 0 3 1 1 - 2 -

Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that Q.2 candidate in the European Parliament elections? 61 Local Election Versus European Election First Preference: South Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support

Local Election First All  Fianna Sinn Green Soc. P./ Preference Vote Total Fine Gael Labour Indep./ Fáil Féin Party PBPA Others

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 28 66 6 18 3 16 18 -

Labour 6 5 55 4 - 5 5 -

Fianna Fail 24 10 7 57 10 11 13 -

Sinn Fein 14 3 - 3 63 4 6 -

Green Party 2 0 4 1 - 27 2 -

All Indep./Others 25 16 28 17 22 38 56 -

Soc.P/PBPA 1 - 2 1 2 2 3 -

Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections? 62 European Election Versus 2011 General Election: South Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

General Election 2011 European Election All First Preference Total Fine Fianna Sinn Green Soc. P./ Don’t Did not  Labour Indep./ Party Vote Gael Fáil Féin Party PBPA know vote Others

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 28 54 7 9 5 - 8 31 27 26

Labour 6 3 34 3 3 - 1 - 6 4

Fianna Fail 24 11 9 66 8 14 10 - 26 20

Sinn Fein 14 8 17 9 69 - 8 - 5 15

Green Party 2 2 6 0 - 41 2 - 2 1

All Indep./Others 25 22 27 12 16 45 70 69 30 32

Soc.P/PBPA 1 1 1 1 3 - 1 19 1 -

Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the European elections? Q.10 To which party or independent candidate did you give your first preference vote in the 2011 General Election? 63 Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – Candidate Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference

Theresa Diarmui Peter Phil Jan Van Richard Brian Jillian Simon Kieran Sean Liadh Ní Dónal Grace Factors of Deirdre Heaney, d Patrick O'Loughl Prender De Ven, Total Cahill, Crowley, Godsil, Harris, Hartley, Kelly, Riada, Ó'Ríordá O'Sulliva Importance  Clune, Catholic O'Flynn, in, gast, Direct Independ Fianna Independ Fine Fianna Fine Sinn in, Fís n, Green Fine Gael Democra Indepen Indepen Labour Democ. ent Fáil ent Gael Fáil Gael Féin Nua Party ts dent dent Party Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % I wanted a strong voice to stand up for 86 83 95 87 94 72 85 88 85 89 86 83 72 84 90 77 Ireland/this constituency in Europe I wanted someone with the experience to represent 77 75 88 88 36 71 79 73 83 68 53 57 61 65 83 56 Ireland/this constituency in Europe I wanted to protest against 44 69 17 41 64 21 57 51 18 73 77 39 36 44 28 79 the Government. I wanted to protest against the EU and its 39 51 29 35 76 24 39 37 25 58 52 35 15 52 22 67 policies towards Ireland

None 4 12 3 5 - 6 3 - 7 4 - 5 - 2 2 10

In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in Q.3 deciding who to vote for, or not? 64 Type of Representatives Wanted in European Election – European Election Party Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support

 Factors of Importance Total Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % % % I wanted a strong voice to stand up for Ireland/this 86 85 90 87 89 84 85 - constituency in Europe I wanted someone with the experience to represent 77 81 83 87 68 65 59 - Ireland/this constituency in Europe

I wanted to protest against 44 19 28 43 73 44 67 - the Government.

I wanted to protest against the EU and its policies 39 26 22 35 58 52 51 - towards Ireland

None 4 5 2 5 4 2 4

In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in Q.3 deciding who to vote for, or not? 65 Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Candidate Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections European Election – 1st Preference Theresa Diarmui Peter Phil Jan Van Richard Brian Jillian Simon Kieran Sean Liadh Ní Dónal Grace Factors of Deirdre Heaney, d Patrick O'Loughl Prender De Ven, Total Cahill, Crowley, Godsil, Harris, Hartley, Kelly, Riada, Ó'Ríordá O'Sulliva Clune, Catholic O'Flynn, in, gast, Direct Importance Independ Fianna Independ Fine Fianna Fine Sinn in, Fís n, Green Fine Gael Democra Indepen Indepen Labour Democ. ent Fáil ent Gael Fáil Gael Féin Nua Party ts dent dent Party Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the 31 40 17 30 52 21 38 28 23 41 42 30 33 26 31 40 resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice. The announcement of measures to 23 25 28 22 14 24 16 23 24 30 11 16 54 19 20 26 support First Time House Buyers The arrest and questioning of 22 26 15 19 48 15 37 25 21 29 24 11 18 26 20 13 Gerry Adams The exit of Ireland from the Troika 29 46 42 25 24 26 29 38 25 30 29 33 54 27 29 37 Bailout The forthcoming introduction of 51 79 25 52 61 32 47 31 35 72 72 53 72 49 39 66 water charges Reduced unemployment 42 61 46 37 41 45 44 23 40 50 36 22 33 33 52 48 figures The removal of some discretionary 53 86 33 54 55 29 61 43 37 74 65 35 33 57 49 80 medical cards The introduction of 51 75 33 51 66 28 68 34 31 73 73 50 72 48 37 69 a Property Tax None 24 11 29 28 12 31 15 51 31 13 12 22 28 30 22 15

Q.4 Please tell me whether any of the following influenced how you voted in the European election, or not? 66 Factors of Importance in European Election – European Election Party Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support Factors of Importance  Total Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA % % % % % % % The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the 31 20 31 32 41 26 39 - resignation of Alan Shatter as Minister for Justice. The announcement of measures to support First 23 25 20 21 30 19 19 - Time House Buyers The arrest and questioning 22 17 20 21 29 26 24 - of Gerry Adams The exit of Ireland from the 29 31 29 25 30 27 35 - Troika Bailout The forthcoming introduction of water 51 31 39 51 72 49 66 - charges Reduced unemployment 42 43 52 38 50 33 39 - figures The removal of some 53 34 49 55 74 57 63 - discretionary medical cards The introduction of a 51 31 37 54 73 48 66 - Property Tax None 24 31 22 26 13 30 18 -

Q.4 Please tell me whether any of the following influenced how you voted in the European election, or not? 67 Satisfaction with Government – European Election Candidate Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference

Theresa Diarmui Peter Phil Jan Van Richard Brian Jillian Simon Kieran Sean Liadh Ní Dónal Grace Satisfaction with Deirdre Heaney, d Patrick O'Loughl Prender De Ven, Total Cahill, Crowley, Godsil, Harris, Hartley, Kelly, Riada, Ó'Ríordá O'Sulliva Government Clune, Catholic O'Flynn, in, gast, Direct Independ Fianna Independ Fine Fianna Fine Sinn in, Fís n, Green Fine Gael Democra Indepen Indepen Labour Democ. ent Fáil ent Gael Fáil Gael Féin Nua Party ts dent dent Party Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Satisfied with the way the government is 26 11 62 18 7 53 15 12 50 7 12 16 28 22 30 10 running the country Dissatisfied with the way the government is 69 84 30 77 76 44 85 88 42 90 82 84 72 68 61 90 running the country

Don’t know 5 5 8 5 17 3 - - 8 3 6 - - 10 9 -

Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? 68 Satisfaction with Government – European Election Party Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support Satisfaction with Total Government Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA % % % % % % % %

Satisfied with the way the government is running the 26 54 30 18 7 22 12 - country

Dissatisfied with the way the government is running 69 39 61 78 90 68 83 - the country

Don’t know 5 7 9 4 3 10 5 -

Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? 69 Economic Outlook – European Election Candidate Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference

Theresa Diarmui Peter Phil Jan Van Richard Brian Jillian Simon Kieran Sean Liadh Ní Dónal Grace Economic Deirdre Heaney, d Patrick O'Loughl Prender De Ven, Total Cahill, Crowley, Godsil, Harris, Hartley, Kelly, Riada, Ó'Ríordá O'Sulliva Outlook  Clune, Catholic O'Flynn, in, gast, Direct Independ Fianna Independ Fine Fianna Fine Sinn in, Fís n, Green Fine Gael Democra Indepen Indepen Labour Democ. ent Fáil ent Gael Fáil Gael Féin Nua Party ts dent dent Party Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months 35 8 71 25 25 58 41 17 54 18 23 24 46 32 48 11 has been getting better The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months 35 49 15 37 29 29 31 56 36 42 32 48 15 41 26 43 has stayed the same The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months 30 42 14 37 45 12 27 27 10 40 45 28 39 27 26 46 has been getting worse

Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, Q.12 getting worse, or staying the same? 70 Economic Outlook – European Election Party Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support View of Economy  Total Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA % % % % % % % %

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has 35 60 48 28 18 32 20 - been getting better

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has 35 28 26 37 42 41 40 - stayed the same

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has 30 12 26 36 40 27 41 - been getting worse

Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, Q.12 getting worse, or staying the same? 71 Household Financial Situation – European Election Candidate Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election – 1st Preference

Household Theresa Diarmui Peter Phil Jan Van Richard Brian Jillian Simon Kieran Sean Liadh Ní Dónal Grace Deirdre Heaney, d Patrick O'Loughl Prender De Ven, Financial Total Cahill, Crowley, Godsil, Harris, Hartley, Kelly, Riada, Ó'Ríordá O'Sulliva Clune, Catholic O'Flynn, in, gast, Direct Situation Independ Fianna Independ Fine Fianna Fine Sinn in, Fís n, Green Fine Gael Democra Indepen Indepen Labour Democ. ent Fáil ent Gael Fáil Gael Féin Nua Party ts dent dent Party Ireland

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % The financial situation of your household in the 13 - 31 8 13 21 11 13 25 9 3 - 28 10 14 - past 12 months has been getting better

The financial situation of your household in the 42 35 46 46 41 54 48 13 49 27 36 48 18 42 44 34 past 12 months has stayed the same

The financial situation of your household in the 45 65 22 46 46 25 42 74 26 63 61 52 54 49 41 66 past 12 months has been getting worse

Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been Q.13 getting better, getting worse, or staying the same? 72 Household Financial Situation – European Election Party Support Base: All South Voters in European Parliament Elections

European Election Party Support Household Financial Total Situation Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % %

The financial situation of your household in the past 13 26 14 9 9 10 5 - 12 months has been getting better

The financial situation of your household in the past 42 49 44 46 27 42 34 - 12 months has stayed the same

The financial situation of your household in the past 45 25 41 45 63 49 61 - 12 months has been getting worse

Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been Q.13 getting better, getting worse, or staying the same? 73 South Constituency Interpretation & Analysis

74 Interpretation & Analysis

The South Constituency is a vast one, encompassing swathes of the so-called Greater Dublin Area, such as Wicklow and Wexford, across to Limerick and Clare, swooping down to Cork and Kerry.

This broad geographical constituency footprint led both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to run multiple candidates, although it was always acknowledged that Brian Crowley of Fianna Fáil would greatly outstrip his running mate, Kieran Hartley, and head the poll, as is his want.

And so it has come to pass. Our exit poll suggests that Crowley will return to Europe on the first count, with his surplus of no practical use to his running mate Hartley in seriously challenging for a seat.

Next in line is Liadh Ní Riada of Sinn Féin whose 17% share of first preferences will comfortably see her home, by virtue of a mix of some of Crowley’s surplus, and transfers from Independent Diarmuid Patrick O'Flynn, and in particular Grace O’Sullivan of the Greens.

Indeed, Phil Prendergast’s spirited attempt to distance herself from Labour’s woes has yielded no dividends and she is likely to join her colleagues Emer Costello in Dublin and Lorraine Higgins in Midlands North West as also-rans. However, Prendergast stayed until late in the race, and would seem to have lasted longer than her Labour stablemates.

75 Interpretation & Analysis

The third candidate likely to be elected in the South constituency is Sean Kelly of Fine Gael, who will benefit from the elimination of his running mate Simon Harris, some of whose transfers will also bolster Deirdre Clune, who is in pole position to pick up the fourth and final seat.

Probably the most predictable of all three Euro constituencies, it would be a major shock based on these exit poll figures if anybody but the four aforementioned candidates were to be elected to the European Parliament in Ireland South.

76 Local Election 2014 National Picture

77 First Preference Party Vote: Local Elections Base: All Voters

First Gender Age Class Preference Femal Male 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE F Vote e % % % % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 24 23 24 20 21 24 25 26 19 39

Labour 7 7 7 4 4 7 8 8 7 1

Fianna Fail 22 23 21 28 19 20 23 20 22 34

Sinn Fein 16 17 14 14 20 16 14 12 22 6

Green Party 3 3 3 1 4 4 2 5 2 -

All Indep./Others 28 26 30 32 31 28 26 29 29 20

Soc.P/PBPA 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 -

Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections 78 First Preference Party Vote: Local Elections Base: All Voters

European Election Exit Poll Party Support – First Region % First Preference Preference All Rest Mun Conn/ Fine Lab- Fianna Sinn Green Soc.P. Dublin Indep/ Vote Leins ster Ulster Gael our Fáil Féin Party /PBPA Others % % % % % % % % % % % Fine Gael 24 16 27 27 23 69 12 12 2 13 14 3

Labour 7 12 8 5 2 5 52 4 1 13 5 6

Fianna Fail 22 12 22 25 29 9 8 64 7 9 13 6

Sinn Fein 16 21 17 13 12 3 2 4 70 3 7 8

Green Party 3 6 2 2 2 1 3 1 0 34 2 2

All Indep./Others 28 32 24 27 32 14 23 15 18 27 58 73

Soc.P/PBPA 3 9 1 1 1 0 2 1 2 2 7 42

Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections 79 Local Elections First Preference Vote Versus 2011 General Election Base: All Voters

2011 General Election First Preference 2014 Local Indepen Election Exit Total Fine Fianna Sinn Green SP/ Don’t Did not  Labour -dent/ Poll Gael Fáil Féin Party PBP know vote Others

% % % % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 24 52 8 7 3 2 4 5 21 20

Labour Party 7 4 27 4 2 7 2 3 6 6

Fianna Fáil 22 11 6 65 5 6 9 - 22 22

Sinn Féin 16 8 18 9 74 2 7 3 11 16

Green Party 3 2 7 0 0 59 3 2 1 3

All Independent/ 28 23 34 15 16 22 75 87 36 31 Others Socialist Party/ People Before Profit 3 1 5 2 2 2 9 58 4 2 Alliance

Q.5 To which party or independent candidate did you just give your first preference vote in the local elections 80 Future General Election Voting Intention x Local Election Party Support Base: All Voters

Local Election Party Support

Future GE Support  Total Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 21 70 14 5 1 12 7 3

Labour Party 5 2 50 2 0 7 2 1

Fianna Fáil 19 3 10 69 2 - 6 4

Sinn Féin 18 2 3 5 82 - 11 11

Green Party 3 1 2 1 1 53 2 4

All Independent/Others 22 7 11 6 5 13 60 70

Socialist Party/ People Before Profit Alliance 3 - 1 0 1 3 8 59

Don’t know 12 16 11 12 8 14 12 8

Would not vote 0 0 - 0 - - 1 -

And to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote if a General Election were Q.14 81 held tomorrow? Local Election 1st Preference Party x Satisfaction with Government Base: All Voters

Local Election Party Support

Socialist Party All Fine Fianna Sinn Green / People Total Labour Independent Gael Fáil Féin Party Before Profit / Others Alliance

% % % % % % % % Satisfied with the way the government is running the 26 58 40 16 6 29 15 8 country

Dissatisfied with the way the government is running the 68 35 54 79 91 62 79 88 country

Don’t know 5 7 6 4 3 9 6 4

Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? 82 Local Election 1st Preference Party x View of Economy Base: All Voters

Local Election Party Support

Socialist Party All Total Fine Fianna Sinn Green / People Labour Independent Gael Fáil Féin Party Before Profit / Others Alliance

% % % % % % % % The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been 34 54 53 25 18 57 27 26 getting better

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has 36 33 30 41 33 25 39 40 stayed the same The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been 30 13 18 34 49 17 35 35 getting worse

Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, Q.12 getting worse, or staying the same? 83 Local Election 1st Preference Party x Household Financial Situation Base: All Voters

Local Election Party Support

Socialist Party All Total Fine Fianna Sinn Green / People Labour Independent Gael Fáil Féin Party Before Profit / Others Alliance % % % % % % % % The financial situation of your household in the 11 21 17 7 5 14 8 6 past 12 months has been getting better

The financial situation of your household in the 46 52 52 47 34 51 44 44 past 12 months has stayed the same

The financial situation of your household in the 43 27 31 46 61 36 48 50 past 12 months has been getting worse

Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been Q.13 getting better, getting worse, or staying the same? 84 Reason for Vote x Local Election 1st Preference Party Base: Voters

Local Election Party Support Soc. All Party/ Main Reason for Preference  Total Fianna Green Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Indep./ People Fáil Party Others Before Profit % % % % % % % % The personality or qualities of the candidate 50 57 56 54 28 28 54 20 The party of the candidate 23 28 25 27 37 30 8 21

The policies of the candidate 21 10 16 14 27 32 31 54

The candidate’s party leader 2 2 1 2 3 2 1 1

None of these 3 2 2 2 5 5 5 5

Don’t know 1 1 - 1 0 2 1 -

And thinking again of the local election, please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you Q.6 decided to give your first preference vote to that candidate in the local election? 85 Type of Representation Wanted x Local Election 1st Preference Party Base: All Voters

Local Election Party Support Soc. Party/ Factors of Importance  Total All Fine Fianna Sinn Green People Labour Indep./ Gael Fáil Féin Party Before Others Profit % % % % % % % % I wanted a Important 89 85 90 89 92 83 90 94 candidate who would represent Not important 10 14 9 8 7 15 9 5 my views on local issues Don’t know 1 1 0 3 1 2 1 1

Important I wanted to 53 22 29 55 82 47 68 75 protest against Not important 45 75 69 43 17 50 30 22 the Government and its policies Don’t know 2 2 1 3 1 3 2 3

In the Local Election, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in Q.7 deciding who to vote for, or not? 86 Influencing Factors x Local Election 1st Preference Party Base: All Voters

Local Election Party Support Soc. Factors of Influence  Total All Party/ Fianna Green Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Indep./ People Fáil Party Others Before Profit % % % % % % % % The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan 32 18 22 36 46 26 36 39 Shatter as Minister for Justice The announcement of measures to support First Time House Buyers 28 23 22 29 39 15 29 19

The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams 23 15 15 24 38 17 22 16

The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout 29 29 31 24 36 31 29 22

The forthcoming introduction of water charges 55 30 39 57 81 40 66 81

Reduced unemployment figures 45 41 49 41 59 30 46 45

The removal of some discretionary medical cards 57 36 45 59 82 39 63 69

The introduction of a Property Tax 54 30 39 56 79 34 65 74

None 25 38 26 26 9 37 20 10

Q.8 Please tell me whether any of the following influenced how you voted in the Local election, or not? 87 Coalition Preferences x Local Election Support Base: All Voters

Local Election Party Support

 All Preferred Coalition Total Fianna Green Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Indep./ Fáil Party PBPA Others

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael and Labour 18 45 46 5 2 16 9 7

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil 15 20 10 30 2 7 10 3

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin 4 7 3 1 7 1 3 2

Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil 15 3 7 24 35 4 10 14

Sinn Féin, Labour, Greens and other left wing parties and 12 1 8 2 29 27 20 29 independents

Other 13 7 11 15 14 22 16 20

Don’t know 24 19 18 24 13 26 34 28

Would not vote 1 1 - 0 0 1 1 -

Q.15 Which of the following coalitions would you like to see following the next General Election? 88 Replacement of Leader x Local Election Support Base: All Voters

Local Election Party Support

Leaders Feel Should be Replaced All Total Fianna Green Soc. P./  Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Indep./ Fáil Party PBPA Others % % % % % % % %

Enda Kenny as leader of Fine Gael 35 15 23 38 58 30 39 47

Micheál Martin as leader of Fianna Fáil 22 19 19 19 29 23 24 29

Eamon Gilmore as leader of the Labour Party 44 27 40 44 59 44 50 52

Gerry Adams as leader of Sinn Féin 34 43 36 35 19 41 33 23

Eamon Ryan as leader of the Green Party 10 8 5 7 14 7 14 20

Don’t know 10 11 6 9 5 13 12 8

None 14 20 18 12 9 14 12 10

Which, if any, of the following do you feel should be replaced as the leader of their party over the next three Q.16 89 months or so? European Integration Views x Local Election Party Support Base: All Voters

Local Election Party Support

All Total Fianna Green Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Indep./ Fáil Party PBPA Others

% % % % % % % %

In favour of further European integration 47 58 56 46 36 41 43 32

Against further European integration 40 31 32 41 50 30 45 57

Don’t know 13 12 11 13 14 29 12 11

Q.17 Are you in favour of, or against, further European integration? 90 Same Sex Marriage Views x Local Party Support Base: All Voters

Local Election Party Support

All Total Fianna Green Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Indep./ Fáil Party PBPA Others

% % % % % % % %

Yes – in favour of same sex marriage 69 68 75 57 75 81 73 75

No – against same sex marriage 21 23 16 29 17 8 18 20

Don’t know 10 10 9 14 8 10 9 4

As you probably know, in 2010 Irish law was changed to allow for full civil partnership between same sex couples. Since then, a decision has been taken to hold a referendum in 2015 on whether the law should be changed to allow for full Q.18 marriage for same sex couples, with all of the legal entitlements that are enjoyed by married couples. If such a referendum was held today, would you vote yes in favour of same sex marriage or no against same sex marriage? 91 Local Election Interpretation & Analysis

92 Interpretation & Analysis

Typically, voters have used Local Government Elections as an opportunity to register their dissatisfaction with the Government of the day with, for example, Independent candidates often performing more strongly than they would in a General Election. The common wisdom would therefore be that the share of vote registered by parties in such Local Elections are not necessarily indicative of how those same parties are likely to perform in the subsequent General Election. Notwithstanding this, the parties will continue to leverage the Locals as a means of blooding new candidates for the next General Election. In the 2009 Local Elections, Fine Gael won 32% of the first preference vote, emerging not only as the biggest party on the day, but also realising a significant seat bonus, winning 39% (340) of all seats on their 32% share of the vote. Based on this election’s exit poll figures, Fine Gael’s Local Government vote is likely to decline to in or around 24%. Assuming no significant seat bonus, on the basis that both Government parties are ‘on the backfoot’ from the electorate’s perspective, the main coalition party stands to win in or around 220 seats, out of the total 949 being contested. The Labour Party, meanwhile, is set to suffer a circa 50% decline in the share of the local election vote it garnered in 2009. These figures would yield roughly 65 local council seats, compared to the 132 it won five years ago.

93 Interpretation & Analysis

The big winners in the 2014 Locals are undoubtedly Sinn Féin and Independent candidates. From a baseline of just 7% of the vote in 2009, equating to just 6% of all seats won in that election, Sinn Féin will have captured approximately 16% of the popular local Government Election vote by the time all counts are tallied at the end of Saturday, 24th May. In terms of seat allocation, this should see the party increase its haul from just over 50 seats in 2009 to as many as 150 this year. Meanwhile, the number of Independent candidate councillors sitting on local authorities around the country is likely to settle in at between 250 and 300 seats. In fact, the Independent bloc may well be the largest across the country, shattering the status quo enjoyed by mainstream parties in the local Government realm since the foundation of the State. Finally, in 2009, Fianna Fáil support was in decline, and they were disappointed with the 25% of Local Election first preferences they won then. Fast forward to May 2014, and the party is beginning to recover from its disastrous 2011 General Election result of just 17% of first preferences. In practical terms, the Soldiers of Destiny have come close at 22% to matching their 2009 Local Election result in today’s poll and, given the fact that the number of local election seats being contested has increased from 883 five years ago to 949 today, the party is set to more or less match the tally of 218 seats it won last time out.

94 Interpretation & Analysis

● xxx

European Election 2014 National Picture

95 First Preference Party Vote: European Elections Base: All Voters

First Gender Age Class Preference Femal Male 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE F Vote e % % % % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 22 23 21 18 22 22 23 24 18 40

Labour 6 5 6 3 4 5 7 6 6 1

Fianna Fáil 22 22 22 26 18 20 25 21 22 28

Sinn Féin 17 19 16 19 22 17 15 13 24 8

Green Party 6 6 6 4 6 8 5 10 3 2

All Indep./Others 27 24 29 30 28 27 25 27 27 21

Soc.P/PBPA 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 -

The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 96 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. First Preference Party Vote: European Elections Base: All Voters

Local Election Exit Poll Party Support – First Region % First Preference Preference All Rest Mun Conn/ Fine Lab- Fianna Sinn Green Soc.P. Dublin Indep/ Vote Leins ster Ulster Gael our Fáil Féin Party /PBPA Others % % % % % % % % % % % Fine Gael 22 14 27 25 22 65 15 9 4 5 11 2

Labour 6 8 6 5 3 3 41 2 1 6 4 4

Fianna Fáil 22 12 22 32 21 11 12 65 5 6 12 6

Sinn Féin 17 24 16 17 10 2 2 5 77 2 11 15

Green Party 6 14 3 6 2 3 12 2 1 67 6 5

All Indep./Others 27 28 27 15 43 16 19 16 12 15 55 68

Soc.P/PBPA 3 14 - - - 0 3 1 2 3 9 51

The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 97 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. European Elections First Preference Vote Versus 2011 General Election Base: All Voters

2011 General Election First Preference 2014 European Indepen Election Exit Total Fine Fianna Sinn Green Don’t Did not  Labour -dent/ SP/PBP Poll Gael Fáil Féin Party Know vote Others

% % % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 22 46 10 7 4 2 8 5 25 17

Labour Party 6 4 20 2 1 5 5 3 6 6

Fianna Fáil 22 12 9 62 6 3 15 3 24 20

Sinn Féin 17 8 20 11 71 4 11 14 15 19

Green Party 6 6 11 3 1 70 5 4 6 6

All Independent/Ot 27 25 30 16 17 16 56 71 25 32 hers Socialist Party/ People Before 3 2 7 1 3 3 11 54 3 4 Profit Alliance

The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 98 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. Future General Election Voting Intention x European Election Party Support Base: All Voters

European Election Party Support

Future GE Support  Total Green All Indep./ Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fáil Sinn Féin Party Others PBPA

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael 21 65 10 9 2 18 10 3

Labour Party 5 2 48 2 1 10 3 4

Fianna Fáil 19 6 6 60 4 5 10 3

Sinn Féin 18 2 5 4 74 4 12 15

Green Party 3 0 2 1 1 33 1 1

All Independent/Others 22 11 16 11 11 17 50 67

Socialist Party/ People Before Profit Alliance 3 0 2 1 2 0 8 41

Don’t know 12 14 13 13 6 13 14 7

Would not vote 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 -

And to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote if a General Election were Q.14 99 held tomorrow? European Election 1st Preference Party x Satisfaction with Government Base: All Voters

European Election Party Support

Socialist Party All Fine Fianna Sinn Green / People Total Labour Independent Gael Fáil Féin Party Before Profit / Others Alliance

Satisfied with the way the government is running the 26 61 36 17 6 36 15 8 country

Dissatisfied with the way the government is running the 68 33 56 79 91 55 80 91 country

Don’t know 5 6 8 5 3 9 5 1

Q.11 Overall, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? 100 European Election 1st Preference Party x View of Economy Base: All Voters

European Election Party Support

Socialist Party All Total Fine Fianna Sinn Green / People Labour Independent Gael Fáil Féin Party Before Profit / Others Alliance

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been 34 57 52 27 19 55 23 25 getting better

The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has 36 32 30 39 35 28 39 40 stayed the same The economy in Ireland in the past 12 months has been 30 10 18 35 46 17 38 35 getting worse

Thinking about the economy in Ireland in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been getting better, Q.12 getting worse, or staying the same? 101 European Election 1st Preference Party x Household Financial Situation Base: All Voters

European Election Party Support

Socialist Party All Total Fine Fianna Sinn Green / People Labour Independent Gael Fáil Féin Party Before Profit / Others Alliance % % % % % % % % The financial situation of your household in the 11 22 11 7 7 19 6 7 past 12 months has been getting better

The financial situation of your household in the 46 54 52 47 33 44 44 40 past 12 months has stayed the same

The financial situation of your household in the 43 24 36 45 61 37 50 53 past 12 months has been getting worse

Thinking about the financial situation of your household in the past 12 months, would you say that it has been Q.13 getting better, getting worse, or staying the same? 102 Reason for Vote x European Election 1st Preference Party Base: Voters

European Election Party Support Soc. All Party/ Main Reason for Preference  Total Fianna Green Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Indep./ People Fáil Party Others Before Profit % % % % % % % % The personality or qualities of the candidate 40 42 35 46 28 36 43 21 The party of the candidate 30 36 42 35 40 23 12 17

The policies of the candidate 22 14 16 14 24 36 34 51

The candidate’s party leader 2 2 3 2 3 2 1 5

None of these 5 4 3 3 5 4 7 5

Don’t know 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 1

Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to Q.2 that candidate in the European Parliament elections? 103 Type of Representation Wanted x European Election 1st Preference Party Base: All Voters

European Election Party Support Soc. Party/ Factors of Importance  Total All Fine Fianna Sinn Green People Labour Indep./ Gael Fáil Féin Party Before Others Profit % % % % % % % % I wanted a Important 89 85 92 90 92 86 89 90 candidate who would represent Not important 10 14 8 8 8 13 9 7 my views on local issues Don’t know 1 1 - 2 0 1 1 2

Important I wanted to 53 29 28 51 81 39 66 72 protest against Not important 45 69 71 46 17 59 33 25 the Government and its policies Don’t know 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 4

In the European Elections, in the case of the statements below, please tell me whether each one was important in Q.3 deciding who to vote for, or not? 104 Influencing Factors x European Election 1st Preference Party Base: All Voters

European Election Party Support Soc. All Party/ Factors of Influence  Total Fianna Green Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Indep./ People Fáil Party Others Before Profit % % % % % % % % The handling of controversies surrounding the Gardaí, and the resignation of Alan 32 18 23 33 43 26 39 33 Shatter as Minister for Justice The announcement of measures to support First Time House Buyers 26 23 19 23 32 16 29 18

The arrest and questioning of Gerry Adams 22 17 16 21 30 21 22 17

The exit of Ireland from the Troika Bailout 33 34 33 26 35 28 36 32

The forthcoming introduction of water charges 52 28 34 52 75 35 65 82

Reduced unemployment figures 44 43 47 38 55 32 44 40

The removal of some discretionary medical cards 53 32 41 55 75 39 61 74

The introduction of a Property Tax 51 28 34 51 76 35 63 72

None 23 32 26 27 11 35 17 7

Q.4 Please tell me whether any of the following influenced how you voted in the European election, or not? 105 Coalition Preferences x European Election Support Base: All Voters

European Election Party Support

 All Preferred Coalition Total Fianna Green Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Indep./ Fáil Party PBPA Others

% % % % % % % %

Fine Gael and Labour 18 46 43 8 2 20 9 8

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil 15 20 9 29 4 15 10 6

Fine Gael and Sinn Féin 4 5 2 3 7 2 3 2

Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil 15 4 5 20 35 5 11 9

Sinn Féin, Labour, Greens and other left wing parties and 12 3 12 3 27 18 17 31 independents

Other 13 6 12 14 13 20 17 26

Don’t know 24 18 19 25 15 24 33 21

Would not vote 1 1 - 0 0 0 1 1

Q.15 Which of the following coalitions would you like to see following the next General Election? 106 Replacement of Leader x European Election Support Base: All Voters

European Election Party Support

Leaders Feel Should be Replaced All Total Fianna Green Soc. P./  Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Indep./ Fáil Party PBPA Others % % % % % % % %

Enda Kenny as leader of Fine Gael 35 14 26 38 55 28 39 43

Micheál Martin as leader of Fianna Fáil 22 19 21 20 29 22 22 24

Eamon Gilmore as leader of the Labour Party 44 27 41 47 59 37 47 49

Gerry Adams as leader of Sinn Féin 34 43 39 35 19 36 34 27

Eamon Ryan as leader of the Green Party 10 8 9 9 14 6 12 15

Don’t know 10 11 9 8 7 10 13 11

None 14 22 19 12 8 19 12 11

Which, if any, of the following do you feel should be replaced as the leader of their party over the next three Q.16 107 months or so? European Integration Views x European Election Party Support Base: All Voters

European Election Party Support

All Total Fianna Green Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Indep./ Fáil Party PBPA Others

% % % % % % % %

In favour of further European integration 47 58 55 46 35 61 40 35

Against further European integration 40 29 34 42 51 25 46 50

Don’t know 13 13 11 12 13 14 14 15

Q.17 Are you in favour of, or against, further European integration? 108 Same Sex Marriage Views x European Party Support Base: All Voters

European Election Party Support

All Total Fianna Green Soc. P./ Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Indep./ Fáil Party PBPA Others

% % % % % % % %

Yes – in favour of same sex marriage 69 66 81 56 74 84 73 80

No – against same sex marriage 21 23 11 30 18 10 18 15

Don’t know 10 12 8 14 8 6 9 4

110 Dublin Constituency questionnaire

111 Dublin Constituency questionnaire

112 Dublin Constituency questionnaire

113 Dublin Constituency questionnaire

114 Midlands-North-West Constituency questionnaire

115 Midlands-North-West Constituency questionnaire

116 Midlands-North-West Constituency questionnaire

117 Midlands-North-West Constituency questionnaire

118 South Constituency questionnaire

119 South Constituency questionnaire

120 South Constituency questionnaire

121 South Constituency questionnaire

122 Sampling Points

123 Dublin sampling points

Dublin Dublin St. Gabriel's NS, Cowper St., Dublin 7 Sandyford Community Centre O'Connell's Secondary School, North Richmond St. (Off NCR) Dublin 1 Combined Clubs Hall, Balbriggan 1. Virgin Mary NS, Shangan Road, Dublin 9 Scoil Mhuire, Blakestown Road Our Lady of Consolation NS, Collins Avenue East, Donneycarney, Dublin 5 Scoil Mhuire, Blakestown Road Christ the King NS, Annaly Road, Cabra, Dublin 7 Scoil Bhríde Boys NS, Blanchardstown Belgrove Junior Boys NS, Seafield Road, Clontarf, Dublin 3 Church of Ireland NS, Main Street, Castleknock St. Patrick's Boys NS, Milbourne Avenue, Drumcondra Road, Dublin 9 St. Margaret's N.S. St. Margaret's St. Finian's NS, Glenties Park, Rivermount, Finglas South, Dublin 11 St. Nicholas of Myra Hall, Kinsaley St. Benedict's Resource Centre, St. Mary's Road North, East Wall, Dublin 3 Pope John Paul NS, Inbhir Ide Drive, Malahide Gaelscoil Cholmcille, Coolock Lane (behind Astro Park) Dublin 17 Skerries Community Centre Sean O'Casey Community Centre, St. Mary's Road North, East Wall, Dublin 3 Scoil Drimnagh, Feltrim Road, Swords St. Joseph's NS, Macroom Road, Dublin 17 Tyrellstown Community Centre, Holbstown Road, Tyrellstown Larkhill Boys School, Glenann Road, Dublin 9 Archbishop Ryan Senior NS, Foxdene, Lucan South Crumlin College VEC, Crumlin Road, Dublin 12 St Peter The Apostle N.S. Neilstown Road De la Salle Boys National School, Ballyfermot Road, Dublin 10 Scoil Carmel, Firhouse Road St. Gabriel's Primary School, Ballyfermot Road, Dublin 10 Scoil Aine Naofa, Newcastle Road, Lucan Ringsend Girls NS, Cambridge Road, Dublin 4 Lucan Educate Together N.S. 1. Ballsbridge College, Shelbourne Road, Dublin 4 Palmerstown Boys N.S. The Oval, Palmerstown 2. St. Mary's NS, Belmont Avenue, Donnybrook, Dublin 4 St. Mary's N.s. Grange Road, Rathfarnham Beechwood Avenue Community Centre, Mountainview Road, Dublin 6 St. Thomas Junior N.S. Fortunestown Road 2. DIT Admin Building, Rathmines House, 143-149 Lower Rathmines Road, Dublin 6 Kilnamanagh National School, Treepark Road, Kilnamanagh Presentation Primary School, Terenure Road West, Dublin 6W Springfield N.S. Maplewood Road Scout Hall, St. Agnes Church Ground, Crumlin Village, Dublin 12 Bishop Shanahan N.S. Orwell Road, Templeogue St. Colmcilles NS St. Lawrence's NS Carysfort NS, Convent Road, Blackrock New Trinity Comprehensive School, Ballymun Road, Dublin 9 Good Shepherd NS Scoil Catriona, 59 Baggot St Lower, Dublin 2. Harold Boy NS, Patrick St. St. Clare's NS, Harold's Cross Road, Dublin 6W Dominican NS Scoil Mhuire N.S., Tuckets Lane, Howth, Dublin 13 Hollypark NS St Helen's N.S., Limetree Avenue, Portmarnock Glencullen NS Scoil Mhuire, Glenmore, Ballyboden Rathmichael NS, Shankill St Pius X N.S., Fortfield Park, Terenure, Dublin 6

124 Midlands-North-West sampling points

Midlands-North-West Midlands-North-West Scoil Einde, Dr. Mannix Road Convent NS, Church Avenue, Portlaoise Presentation Infants NS Newcastle Road Ballinalee National School Scoil Bhríde, Oldtown, Sallins Road, Naas Scoil Mhuire NS, Kells Aghards NS Castlejordan Community Centre Scoil Bhríde, Green lane Edenderry Library Derrinturn NS Tang Community School Scoil Mhuire Junior School, Ballymany Multyfarnham NS Patrician Primary School Cappataggle NS, Cappataggle, Ballinasloe, Co. Galway St. Fintans Hall, Mountrath Carrowbeg NS, Liscananown Drogheda Borough Council Office Fair St. Drogheda Gurteen NS, Cappalusk Dunleer NS, Dunleer, Co. Louth Doire Glinne SN, Letterfore, Oughterard Tenure NS, Mulany, Drogheda Clontuskert NS Ashbourne Comminity Centre Askill Community Centre, Gubacreeny Ratoath Senior National School Naíonra Thuas Mhic Eadraigh, Baile Óbha Duleek Boys NS Derrynabrack NS, Cloontia Scoil Eoin Phoil, Arden Dysart NS Runnamote NS, Lisnaglen, Cloonygormican, Co. Clara Boys NS, Clara Roscommon Cornamaddy NS, Moydrum Sooey Community Centre, Ballynakill, Co. Sligo Baile Chlair SN, an Carn Mor, Baile Chlair, Cheatrú an Tunnyduff NS Bhrúnaigh Mountbellew NS, Mountbellew Laghy NS Carnanool NS Craigstown NS Scoil Iosa NS, Ballyhaunis Cashel National School, Glencolmcille, Co. Donegal Kilglass NS Scout Hall, York St., Castleblayney Ballyconnell Central NS, Ballyconnell, Co. Cavan Batterstown N.S. Dunboyne Gort an Choirce SN Cooneal N.S., Ballysakeery MaChaire Rabhtaigh NS Manorhamilton Community Centre Staplestown NS Rathcormac National School, Drumcliff, Co. Sligo Timahoe Community Hall, Timahoe Duleek Boys NS 125 South sampling points

South Sampling Points South Sampling Points Social & Resource Centre, 61/62 Roches Buildings, Blackpool Lower Glanmire NS (New Inn) Greenmount NS, Greenmount Watergrasshill NS St. Patrick's NS, Gardener's Hill Scoil Naisunta Baile Mhic Íre Scoil Mhuire Bonrian Convent School, Boherboy Road, Tivoli Lisgoold Community Centre, Lisgoold, Co. Cork Castleconnell NS Lissagriffin NS, Crookhaven St. Brigid's National School, Singland Knockanes NS, Brewsterfield St. John of God's NS Killury NS, Causeway Sixmilebridge NS Kilorglin NS Clonlara NS Caherelly NS Scoil Ghobnatan, Mallow Aragh NS Bandon GAA Ballycahill Carrigaline Community Complex Scoil Teampall Toinne Ballynora NS Golden NS Coolmoohan Community Centre St. Saviour's NS, Ballybeg St. Colman's NS, Cloyne Nurney NS Christian Brothers Primary, Midleton St Canices Central National School, Kilkenny City Holy Family NS Balloonagh Tralee Strangmill NS Scoil an Ghleanna, Baile ui She, Ballycaneen Scoil Chroí Ró Naofa (Ballymurn NS) Patrickswell NS Ballyhack NS, Arthurstown Roxborough NS Glynn NS Ballina NS Churchill NS Pon Road Community Centre St. Paul’s Boys N.S. Lisduggan Leighlinbridge NS CBS, Stephen Street, Kilkenny City Castlecomer Convent Primary School Callan Parish Hall, Callan Town St. Senann's School Clonakilty St. John's Road School Patrician Hall Ballinascarthy St. Andrew's NS Bray Enniskerry NS Kilcoole NS Ballyvaughan NS Scariff National School Coachford NS

126