RTÉ/Behaviour & Attitudes European Election Exit Poll May 23rd 2014 Prepared for: J.5582 Introduction 2 Introduction ● This report sets out the findings of an Exit Poll commissioned by RTÉ and carried out by Behaviour & Attitudes. The poll was conducted among a sample of 3,081 voters nationwide, interviewed immediately after they had voted in the Election on Friday, 23rd May, 2014. ● The sample was spread throughout all three European constituencies and undertaken at 175 polling stations. Interviews were conducted face-to-face with randomly selected individuals – throughout the hours of polling from 7am to 10pm in accordance with the 1992 Electoral Act (no interviews took place within 100 yards of a polling station). ● The accuracy level is estimated to be plus or minus 1.7% at a national level, and plus or minus 3.4% at a constituency level. Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to RTÉ and Behaviour & Attitudes. 3 Research Methodology ● A face-to-face Exit Poll was conducted among voters immediately after leaving polling stations on European Election day, Friday, 23rd May, 2013. ● An effective sample of 3,081 voters was interviewed. ● The Poll was undertaken in all three European constituencies. ● 175 polling stations were sampled, distributed proportionate to population within each constituency: No. of seats No. of No. of Statistical Polling interviews margin of stations error Dublin 3 61 1070 ±3.06% Midlands 4 56 970 ±3.21% North West South 4 58 1041 ±3.09% Total 11 175 3,081 ±1.8% ● Specific polling stations within constituency were selected randomly. 4 Voter Selection Selection of Respondents (Voters) ● In accordance with the 1992 Electoral Act, no interviews took place within 100 yards of a polling station. ● Interviewing was continuous throughout each time-period. ● In the event of refusal at contact, the interviewer noted gender, approximate age and social class, and sought to replace that person at the first available opportunity with a person sharing similar demographic characteristics. 5 Note on Weighting Two levels of weighting have been applied to this data to ensure accurate reflection of the electorate. 1. Regional Weighting To correct for the regional imbalance in the sample design the constituency totals have been re-weighted to the known electorate size in each constituency as the table below shows: Dublin Midlands-North- South West Electorate 799,975 1,175,437 1,205,260 % weighted 25.2 36.9 37.9 2. Demographic Weighting This is a random probability sample survey and should reflect the actual profile of the turnout on the day. However, sampling bias can always occur and we have applied corrective demographic weights to minimise this effect. In practice, given the large sample size these weights only impact on first preference vote by no more than one percentage point in almost all cases. Nonetheless even marginal weighting in our view provides a more precise sample output. 6 Weighting x Population The table below indicates the weights used. 18+ Population Achieved Weighted Gender % % % Male 51 54 51 Female 49 46 49 Age % % % 18 – 24 12 5 7 25 – 34 22 13 18 35 – 49 29 32 30 50 – 64 21 31 26 65+ 16 19 19 Class % % % AB 13 19 17 C1 28 30 30 C2 21 19 18 DE 31 24 27 F 7 7 8 7 European Elections 2014: Dublin Constituency 8 First Preference Vote: European Election: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections % First Preference Vote Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin 24 Nessa Childers, Independent 11 Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist Party 7 Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance 6 Jim Tallon, Independent 1 Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. 9 First Preference Vote: European Election: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections Gender Age Class Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+ ABC1 C2DE % % % % % % % % % Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní 24 26 23 29 26 27 21 14 41 Bhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin Nessa Childers, Independent 11 7 14 9 11 8 13 13 8 Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 7 9 2 8 7 9 8 8 Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy 1 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 2 Ireland Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 13 11 13 9 8 17 14 10 Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 16 12 11 16 14 14 17 9 Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ 7 7 8 7 9 9 6 8 7 Socialist Party Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 14 13 15 15 16 11 19 5 Brid Smith, People Before Profit 6 5 8 9 3 8 6 5 9 Alliance Jim Tallon, Independent 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 Raymond Patrick Whitehead, 1 1 0 2 - 1 1 1 1 Direct Democracy Ireland Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 0 - - - - 0 0 - The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. 10 First Preference Vote: European Election: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections Region Dun City City South Total Laoghaire/ Fingal North South Dublin Rathdown % % % % % % Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn Féin 24 32 21 14 24 27 Nessa Childers, Independent 11 8 10 15 10 13 Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 8 11 9 6 6 Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 3 0 - - 2 Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 11 9 13 20 8 Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 9 15 16 15 16 Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist Party 7 14 4 4 8 6 Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 8 18 21 12 12 Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance 6 5 11 4 3 8 Jim Tallon, Independent 1 1 1 1 2 0 Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 1 - 2 1 1 Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 0 - - - - The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. 11 First Preference Vote: European Election: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections Local Election Party Support – First Preference All Fianna Sinn Green Soc. P./ Total Fine Gael Labour Indep./ Fáil Féin Party PBPA Others % % % % % % % % Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn 24 1 3 4 86 3 14 12 Féin Nessa Childers, Independent 11 11 9 5 2 9 20 7 Emer Costello, Labour Party 8 10 39 3 0 3 4 1 Thomas Darcy, Direct Democracy Ireland 1 - - - 1 - 3 2 Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna Fáil 12 7 8 64 1 5 7 5 Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 14 58 12 5 2 7 6 1 Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist 7 1 4 3 3 4 18 38 Party Eamon Ryan, Green Party 14 10 23 9 2 67 10 3 Brid Smith, People Before Profit Alliance 6 2 3 4 2 1 14 30 Jim Tallon, Independent 1 1 - 3 - - 2 - Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct 1 - - - - - 2 1 Democracy Ireland Damon Matthew Wise, Fís Nua 0 - - - - - 0 - The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. 12 European Election Second Preference Support Levels Versus European Election 1st Preference Support: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections European Election – 1st Preference Paul Raymond Thomas Brid Murphy Patrick Nessa Emer Darcy Mary Eamon Smith Jim Damon Second Preference Lynn Brian Stop the Whitehea Total Childers Costello Direct Fitzpatric Ryan People Tallon Matthew Boylan Hayes Water dDirect Indep- Labour Democ- k Fianna Green Before Independ Wise Sinn Féin Fine Gael Tax/ Democra endent Party racy Fáil Party Profit ent Fís Nua Socialist cy Ireland Alliance Party Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % % Lynn Boylan (Lynn Ní Bhaoigheallain), Sinn 6 - 9 1 23 3 4 23 6 14 9 - - Féin Nessa Childers, 12 11 - 15 19 14 12 11 18 10 8 10 100 Independent Emer Costello, Labour 9 5 6 - - 7 24 1 21 4 10 - - Party Thomas Darcy, Direct 1 2 - - - 1 1 1 1 4 - 35 - Democracy Ireland Mary Fitzpatrick, Fianna 5 4 10 9 - - 8 - 6 - - 12 - Fáil Brian Hayes, Fine Gael 9 2 15 23 - 14 - 2 22 6 8 - - Paul Murphy, Stop the Water Tax/ Socialist 11 23 11 4 24 7 1 - 5 29 - 12 - Party Eamon Ryan, Green 12 6 14 25 - 19 27 5 - 8 7 - - Party Brid Smith, People 10 21 8 1 8 1 1 42 4 - - 9 - Before Profit Alliance Jim Tallon, Independent 2 2 4 - - 4 2 1 1 3 - 11 - Raymond Patrick Whitehead, Direct 1 0 1 1 26 - - - - 3 23 - - Democracy Ireland Damon Matthew Wise, 0 1 - - - - - - 2 - - - - Fís Nua None/no second pref 21 22 22 21 - 30 20 14 15 19 36 11 - The candidates for election in the European Parliament Election are listed on this ballot paper. Please mark the Q.1 ballot paper giving your order of preference as you have just voted. 13 Reasons for First Preference European Election Candidate Support: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in EP Elections European Election – 1st Preference Paul Raymond Thomas Brid Murphy Patrick Main Influencing Nessa Emer Darcy Mary Eamon Smith Jim Damon Total Lynn Brian Stop the Whitehea Candidate Factors Childers Costello Direct Fitzpatric Ryan People Tallon Matthew Boylan Hayes Water dDirect Indep- Labour Democ- k Fianna Green Before Independ Wise Sinn Féin Fine Gael Tax/ Democra endent Party racy Fáil Party Profit ent Fís Nua Socialist cy Ireland Alliance Party Ireland % % % % % % % % % % % % % Personality/ Qualities 30 20 51 27 19 33 32 16 39 28 16 12 - Party 33 42 14 49 26 44 41 18 20 16 25 36 - Policies 30 31 27 22 38 16 17 60 35 39 43 52 100 Party Leader 3 2 1 1 - 1 5 3 2 9 - - - None 5 5 8 1 8 6 4 3 5 8 16 - - Don't know 0 1 - - 8 - - 1 - - - - - Please tell me which one of the following was the main reason you decided to give your first preference vote to that Q.2 candidate in the European Parliament elections? 14 Reasons for First Preference Vote in European Election Party Support: Dublin Base: All Dublin Voters in European Parliament Elections European Election Party Support Main Influencing Total Sinn Green All Indep./ Soc.