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Marketexpress with the Installation of a New Government, Italy Has Averted the Need for Another Election Round, at Least for the Time Being

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Marketexpress with the Installation of a New Government, Italy Has Averted the Need for Another Election Round, at Least for the Time Being Publication for professional investors Week 23 – 4 June 2018 A brief look ahead at the market & review of key indices Marketexpress With the installation of a new government, Italy has averted the need for another election round, at least for the time being. How far will the coalition push its populist agenda? Populist coalition takes the helm in Italy Following a political drama in Italy that triggered a major sell-off in Savona, whose nomination as finance minister touched off last Italian assets last week, the country has for now managed to avoid week’s crisis, will now be minister for EU affairs. Tria, the new finance calling new elections. But last week’s crisis and the reaction of minister, has been critical of the EU’s economic governance, but financial markets served to underscore the Italy-related risks of a unlike Savona he has not advocated a plan for Italy’s possible exit Eurozone breakup. from the euro currency bloc. The government’s agenda is clearly worrisome for Brussels and for investors. A combination of more Big sell-off in Italian assets spending and tax cuts threaten to end the fiscal prudence of previous Market attention has been focused on Italian politics for the past governments, turning Italy’s primary surplus into a deficit. week. In the three months that followed the country’s March elections, most watchers had been relatively calm about the Italian bond yields jump outcome. The only tail risk seemed to be the unlikely possibility of a Not surprisingly, Italian equities and bonds have come under populist majority government. pressure. Italian government bond spreads rose to their highest level since June 2017 and the euro fell to its lowest this year against the US Now it appears that Italy has just that. The ministers of a coalition dollar. The weaker euro may be a silver lining for other Eurozone made up of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the markets, especially for export- and USD-sensitive Germany, but for nationalist League were sworn in Friday. The installation of the new the Eurozone as a whole, Italian politics may not help investor government followed a week during which a dispute between the confidence. Contagion outside Italy is limited so far. European equity two parties and the nation’s president made new elections seem all indices show a positive return over the month, in line with other but certain, sparking a sell-off in Italian assets early last week. major developed markets. The conflict arose when President Sergio Mattarella vetoed the Spreads of other peripheral bond markets such as Spain and Portugal appointment of Paolo Savona, an 81-year-old Eurosceptic and former have also increased, but less so than in Italy. Political news has also industry minister, as Italy’s new economy and finance minister. Later been negative in Spain, where Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy was in the week the coalition partners reached agreement with ousted Friday in a vote of no confidence after several former Mattarella on the appointment of economics professor Giovanni Tria members of his party were convicted of corruption. European core to the post. The country’s leaders may have averted the threat of government bonds meanwhile benefitted from a flight to safety; the new elections for now, but markets will now turn their attention to German Bund yield has fallen about 17bp. A more volatile period for the policies the populists are likely to promote and what it might Italian and perhaps also European assets may be ahead. mean for the future of the Eurozone. Peripheral treasury yield spreads widen Political drama underscores Eurozone risks Italian politics are dominating market direction more forcefully than they have in years. The events of the past week highlighted worries over the sustainability of the European monetary union. Italy has constantly had issues regarding political instability, structural reform and high debt burdens, but only when developments start to increase the probability of a Eurozone break-up in the next 12 to 18 months do markets really start to worry. The inconclusive results of the March elections, the policies proposed by new coalition partners and last week’s political crisis all suggest that the new government is not likely to invest much political capital in reform and growth. The new government will be led by Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, a law professor with no political ties to Five Star or the League. Luigi Di Maio, the head of Five Star, will be the labour and industry minister. Matteo Salvini, the League’s leader, will be minister of the interior. The two party chiefs will also serve as deputy prime ministers. www.nnip.com Publication for professional investors Week 22 – 28 May 2018 Coalition agreement may have reduced Eurozone risk MSCI Regional Indices (EUR) % The good news regarding Italy may be that even a populistic 25 May - 1 Jun YTD government carries a lower risk of future Eurozone break-up than MSCI World -0.06 4.56 highly uncertain elections sometime in the future, which could have MSCI Europe -0.87 1.71 led to even more anti-establishment sentiment and less tolerance of MSCI Emerging Markets -0.58 1.23 MSCI US 0.52 6.40 Eurozone participation. Euro break-up risk matters most for markets MSCI Japan -1.56 2.84 in the near term. In the long term, both markets and the economy MSCI Developed Asia ex Japan -0.97 2.09 will have to digest that potential growth prospects are unlikely to brighten any time soon. MSCI Sector Indices (EUR) % 25 May - 1 Jun YTD The main area of contention in Italy is the outlook for fiscal policy. MSCI World Energy 2.32 9.31 Italy’s main issue is a low potential growth rate, driven by low MSCI World Materials -0.08 2.68 underlying productivity growth. In order to move to a higher growth MSCI World Industrials -0.73 2.78 trajectory, the country needs structural reforms to bring down its MSCI World Consumer Discretionary -0.28 8.71 132% debt-to-GDP ratio. High public debt levels may require fiscal MSCI World Consumer Staples -0.95 -5.64 austerity, which is not what 5SM and the League have in mind. Full MSCI World Health Care 0.20 4.47 implementation of the program they agreed upon (such as billions of MSCI World Financials -1.75 -0.34 euros in tax cuts, additional spending on welfare for the poor, and a MSCI World Information Technology 1.63 15.33 roll-back of pension reforms) would push the Italian deficit/GDP ratio MSCI World Telecom Services -1.00 -5.91 easily to the 5-6% area, violating European rules. MSCI World Utilities -0.97 0.92 MSCI World Real Estate 0.75 1.08 The period of underperformance of Italian assets may continue. Bond & Credit Yields % Investors had been very complacent up until the beginning of May. 1-Jun 25-May They were not sufficiently discounting the risk of a populist 10-yr Bund (Germany) 0.38 0.41 government and instead focussed on improving economic and 10-yr Treasury (US) 2.89 2.93 corporate fundamentals. Consequently, investors had been US Investment Grade Credits 3.95 3.94 increasing their positions in Italian equities, supported by strong Euro Investment Grade Credits 0.88 0.85 earnings growth and a substantial valuation discount. Global High Yield 6.25 6.13 EMD Hard Currency 6.31 6.17 Underweight Italian equities Asian Debt Composite 5.35 5.35 We must however not forget that the Italian equity market is sensitive to changes in the government bond spread. More than a FX & Commodities third of the market consists of financials, a sector that was supported 1-Jun 25-May by improvements in the loan book. Of course, things might turn out EUR/USD 1.170 1.167 to be less damaging, as the president has the power to veto Crude Oil (WTI Spot, USD) 65.81 67.92 government bills if deemed unconstitutional, or if the pressure from DJ UBS Commodity index 185.94 186.83 financial markets may become dissuasive for the implementation of Economic Releases (4 - 8 Jun) measures going against the Eurozone philosophy. Date Consensus US Factory Orders (Apr, m-o-m) 4-Jun -1.0% Taken these elements into account, we have adopted an US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May) 5-Jun 56.8 underweight in Italian equities at the benefit of German equities. We US Trade Balance (May, USD) 6-Jun -52.5B believe it makes sense to steer away from the problem child. German Eurozone GDP (Q1, q-o-q/y-o-y) 7-Jun 0.4%/2.5% corporates may benefit from the strength of the US dollar. For the China Exports/Imports (May, y-o-y) 8-Jun 4.2%/8.9% time being, we keep our neutral position in Eurozone equities. Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream/Eikon. YTD data until 4 June 2018 Earnings estimates are modest, and given the dollar’s strength, we may soon start to see earnings momentum moving up. Disclaimer This communication is intended for MiFID professional investors only. This communication has been prepared solely for the purpose of information and does not constitute an offer, in particular a prospectus or any invitation to treat, buy or sell any security or to participate in any trading strategy or the provision of investment services or investment research. While particular attention has been paid to the contents of this communication, no guarantee, warranty or representation, express or implied, is given to the accuracy, correctness or completeness thereof.
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