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Toward a Clean Energy Future

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Toward a Clean Energy Future Item 2 TOWARD A CLEAN ENERGY FUTURE FINAL DRAFT 2018IEPR INTEGRATED ENERGY POLICY REPORT UPDATE VOL. 1 CEC-100-2018-001-V1 Dedicated to Nancy McFadden, 1959-2018 ABOUT THE CALIFORNIA INTEGRATED ENERGY ENERGY COMMISSION POLICY REPORT The California Energy Commission is the state’s primary energy Every two years, the California Energy Commission prepares the policy and planning agency. Established in 1974 by the Warren- Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR). This year, the IEPR Update Alquist Act, the Energy Commission is committed to promoting a contains two volumes. Volume I (this document) highlights the clean, affordable, and reliable energy supply for all Californians. implementation of California’s innovative policies and the role they have played in establishing a clean energy economy. Volume II, scheduled for completion in February 2019, will provide more detail on several key energy issues and will encompass new analyses, as well as significant opportunities for public participation. 2 CLIMATE CHANGE Climate change represents one of the greatest threats facing the TOP 20 LARGEST, MOST DESTRUCTIVE, world today. Already, California has seen impacts in the form of AND DEADLIEST WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA sea-level rise, drought, wildfires, coastal erosion, disruption of water supply, and threats to agriculture. Last year, California experienced 20 18 Top 20 Deadliest (Deaths) the largest and most damaging forest fires in the history of the 16 Top 20 Most Destructive (Structures) state. In total, the 2017 fire season killed 43 people and damaged 14 Top 20 Largest (Acres) or destroyed more than 10,000 structures. Just two years prior, 12 10 the drought cost the state’s agricultural sector an estimated $2.7 8 billion and more than 20,000 jobs. The most recent drought was 6 4 followed by record-breaking rains, resulting in flooding that tore 2 through freeways and threatened rural and coastal communities. 0 1930– 1940– 1950– 1960– 1970– 1980– 1990– 2000– 2010– Climate change continues to increase the risk of natural disasters in 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2017 California and around the globe. Source: Cal Fire California’s leadership in climate change policy builds on a strong released in 2018, will detail climate impacts on regions, industries, foundation of climate science and research. The state’s Climate ecosystems and communities, highlighting key vulnerabilities and Change Assessments provide interagency analysis of climate adaptation and mitigation priorities. These assessments inform change impacts. The Fourth Climate Change Assessment, to be policymakers, influence legislation, and support California’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build a healthy, safe, and sustainable future. “It’s time for courage, it’s time for creativity, and it’s time for boldness to tackle climate change.” - Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. A Ventura, California home destroyed by the 2017 Thomas Fire. 3 LEADING THE WAY TO A CLEAN ENERGY FUTURE CLIMATE LEADERSHIP GDP GROWTH SINCE 2000 For decades, California has remained at the forefront of clean energy leadership, demonstrating that environmental protection does not need to come at the expense of a thriving economy. CALIFORNIA 46% Today, California is committed to addressing climate change in partnership with other states and nations around the world. CALIFORNIA’S GROWING ECONOMY REST OF UNITED STATES 35% With the fifth largest economy in the world, California is implementing an ambitious array of climate and renewable energy policies, demonstrating that economic growth and environmental Source: California Department of Finance and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis protection can go hand in hand. As California has pressed forward to reduce pollution, the state’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth has consistently outpaced the U.S. national average. 4 BUILDING A CLEAN ECONOMY PERCENT CHANGE SINCE 2000 50% GDP 40% 30% 20% POPULATION 10% 0% -10% GHG EMISSIONS Data only available through 2016 -20% -30% -40% -50% 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, California Air Resources Board, and California Department of Finance SINCE 2000 CALIFORNIA HAS SEEN ... 16% 46% 9% increase in population increase in GDP decrease in GHG emissions 5 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION REDUCTIONS AMBITIOUS TARGETS policy portfolio that addresses emissions across sectors including electricity, buildings, transportation, land use and agriculture, and California’s greenhouse gas reduction targets are a cornerstone of industry. This comprehensive approach helps reduce the impacts of the state’s groundbreaking efforts to fight climate change. Under climate change, promotes energy resiliency, improves public health, the leadership of the last two governors and through landmark supports disadvantaged and low-income communities, and fosters legislative actions, the state has cultivated a robust climate economic growth and jobs. CALIFORNIA GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (MMTCO2e) 2020 Target 2030 Target 2050 Target 1990 levels 40% below 80% below 1990 levels 1990 levels 500 Current rate of 400 emission reduction 300 TRANSPORTATION ELECTRICITY 200 INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS 100 AG & FORESTRY 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: California Air Resources Board H F F F C N N O S H H F F H F GREENHOUSE METHANE NITROUS FLUORINATED GASES OXIDE GASES Although California’s emissions are primarily (84 Primary component of natural Released in agricultural Human-made gases percent) carbon dioxide gas; livestock and landfills and industrial processes released through are the largest sources in and fossil fuel industrial processes. (CO2), reduction efforts also target other harmful California. combustion. gases, which can be tens to thousands of times 25x 300x Up to 22,800x more potent in terms of more potent than CO2 more potent than CO2 more potent than CO2 global warming potential. 100-year potency compared to CO2 Source: California Air Resources Board 6 INTERNATIONAL UNDER 2° SIGNATORIES COLLABORATION The Under2 Coalition, co-chaired by Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr., is an international pact among cities, states, and countries formed to galvanize bold climate action around the globe. Signatories pledge to limit the increase of the global average temperature to below 2 degrees Celsius and strive to remain below Source: Under2 Coalition 1.5 degrees—the level of potentially catastrophic consequences—by either reducing emissions by 80 to 95 percent PUTTING A PRICE ON CARBON below 1990 levels or holding annual The Cap-and-Trade Program helps California reach its climate targets at low costs. The program emissions to less than 2 metric tons places a firm, declining cap on the primary sources of emissions. Businesses can then choose per capita by 2050. Since 2015, the to reduce emissions below the cap or use a limited number of tradable emissions allowances. coalition has grown to include 205 More than $6 billion collected through these allowance auctions is being invested in programs to jurisdictions, representing 43 countries, further reduce emissions, including energy efficiency upgrades, clean transportation incentives, 1.3 billion people, and almost 40 urban tree planting, and affordable housing development. More than $1 billion (half of the percent of the global economy. funding spent through 2017) has benefited disadvantaged communities. SPOTLIGHT: SPOTLIGHT: CALIFORNIA-MEXICO CALIFORNIA-CHINA PARTNERSHIP PARTNERSHIP California has established multiple In 2017, Governor Brown met with channels of cooperation with Mexico President Xi Jinping of the People’s to promote renewable energy, clean Republic of China and signed an transportation, energy efficiency, and agreement with the Chinese Minister climate mitigation. California has signed California Energy Commissioner David Hochschild signed a of Science and Technology to memorandum of understanding with Aguascalientes Governor agreements with the federal government Martín Orozco Sandoval to cooperate on clean energy programs cooperate on research, innovation, of Mexico, and at the subnational and policies (January 2017). and investment to develop low- level with the Mexican states of carbon energy technologies. California Aguascalientes and Jalisco. Both also has agreements with the states, as well as 11 others, have also National Development and Reform joined the Under2 Coalition. In addition, Commission (NDRC) and strong the Mexican federal government has regional relationships with several endorsed the Under2 MOU. municipalities and provinces, including Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shenzhen, and Beijing, to advance clean energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions Energy Commission Chair Robert B. Weisenmiller and Director and air pollution. General Wang Qin of the Jiangsu Science & Technology Department advanced a clean energy memorandum of understanding (November 2017). 7 UTILITY SCALE RENEWABLE ENERGY CLEANING UP RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION THE ELECTRIC GRID 90,000 California’s electric grid relies increasingly 80,000 on clean sources of energy such as solar, wind, geothermal, hydroelectricity, and 70,000 biomass. As this transition advances, the grid is also expanding to serve new sectors 60,000 SOLAR SOLAR including electric vehicles, rail, and space and water heating. California has installed 50,000 more renewable energy than any other U.S. state with 22,250 megawatts (MW) 40,000 WINDWIND of utility-scale systems operational today. Hours (Annual) Gigawatt The state continues to shatter installation 30,000 records and is home to some of the largest 20,000 solar, wind, and
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