Arizona Rural Transit Needs Study May 2008
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Arizona Rural Transit Needs Study May 2008 Final Report prepared for Arizona Department of Transportation prepared by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. in association with TranSystems Corporation www.camsys.com Arizona Rural Transit Needs Study Table of Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................ES-1 Study Baseline Report ...................................................................................... ES-1 Future Trend Analysis ..................................................................................... ES-3 Transit Demand and Need .............................................................................. ES-4 Funding Issues and Solutions ......................................................................... ES-9 Vision, Goals, and Objectives........................................................................ ES-10 Service Alternatives and Solutions............................................................... ES-11 Supporting Policies and Practices ................................................................ ES-15 Summary.......................................................................................................... ES-16 1.0 Introduction .........................................................................................................1-1 2.0 Vision, Goals, and Objectives ..........................................................................2-1 2.1 Vision............................................................................................................2-1 2.2 Goals.............................................................................................................2-1 2.3 Objectives.....................................................................................................2-2 3.0 Key Findings........................................................................................................3-1 3.1 Overview......................................................................................................3-1 3.2 Study Areas and Existing Services...........................................................3-1 3.3 Demographic Changes...............................................................................3-5 3.4 Transit Demand and Need......................................................................3-13 3.5 Strategy and Costs to Meet Need ...........................................................3-17 4.0 Service Alternatives and Solutions ................................................................4-1 4.1 Overview......................................................................................................4-1 4.2 Summary of Stakeholder Input ................................................................4-1 4.3 Section 5311 Local Service Alternatives...................................................4-4 4.4 Section 5311 Intercity Service Alternatives ...........................................4-20 4.5 Section 5310, 5316, and 5317 Service Alternatives ...............................4-25 4.6 Vanpooling and Ridesharing ..................................................................4-31 5.0 Supporting Policies and Practices ..................................................................5-1 5.1 Background on Funding............................................................................5-1 5.2 Funding Criteria..........................................................................................5-3 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. i 7433.050 Table of Contents, continued 5.3 Best Practices Review.................................................................................5-7 6.0 Summary and Next Steps ..................................................................................6-1 6.1 Overview......................................................................................................6-1 6.2 Study Objectives .........................................................................................6-1 6.3 Demographic Trends..................................................................................6-1 6.4 Stakeholder Input .......................................................................................6-2 6.5 Transit Demand and Need........................................................................6-3 6.6 Vision, Goals, and Objectives....................................................................6-4 6.7 Strategy to Meet Need................................................................................6-4 6.8 Service Alternatives and Solutions...........................................................6-5 6.9 Funding........................................................................................................6-9 6.10 Roles and Responsibilities.........................................................................6-9 6.11 Conclusion .................................................................................................6-11 Appendix A. Definitions ..........................................................................................A-1 Appendix B. Case Studies ........................................................................................ B-1 Appendix C. Federal Funding Levels for Arizona...............................................C-1 Appendix D. FY 2006 Section 5311 Financial and Performance Criteria.........D-1 ii Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 7433.050 Arizona Rural Transit Needs Study List of Tables Table ES-1 Comparison of Rural and Urban Arizona, Year 2005 ..................... ES-2 Table ES-2 Summary of Year 2016 Cost and Ridership by Scenario ................ ES-8 Table 3.1 Population Groups in APTNA Method by County, 2007 and 2016..........................................................................................................3-14 Table 3.2 Estimated Annual Rural Transit Demand from APTNA Method by County, 2007 and 2016 .....................................................3-15 Table 3.3 Summary of Year 2016 Cost and Ridership by Scenario .................3-20 Table 4.1 APTNA Demand Forecast for Rural Cities/Towns With No Section 5311 Program Service................................................................4-5 Table 4.2 List of Top Candidates for New Section 5311 Program Service.......4-8 Table 4.3 APTNA Demand Forecast for Rural Cities/Towns With Section 5311 Program Service..............................................................4-12 Table 4.4 List of Top Candidates for Expanded Section 5311 Program Service.....................................................................................................4-14 Table 4.5 Section 5311 Program Service Performance Measures ....................4-15 Table 4.6 Intercounty and Out-of-State Commuter Demand Analysis, 2005 and 2016.........................................................................................4-21 Table 4.7 List of Top Candidates for New or Expanded Intercity Section 5311 Program Services ............................................................4-22 Table 5.1 Section 5311 Program FY 2006 Capital Funding.................................5-2 Table 5.2 Section 5311 Program Fiscal Year 2006 Operating Funding .............5-3 Table 6.1 Top Candidates for New Local and Tribal Section 5311 Program Service ......................................................................................6-6 Table 6.2 Top Candidates for Expanded Local and Tribal Section 5311 Program Service ......................................................................................6-7 Table 6.3 Top Candidates for New Intercity Section 5311 Program Service.......................................................................................................6-8 Table C.1 Federal Funding Levels for Arizona, FY 2005 to FY 2009 ................C-2 Table D.1 Financial-Based Criteria for Existing Section 5311 Operators, FY 2006.....................................................................................................D-2 Table D.2 Performance-Based Criteria for Existing Section 5311 Operators, FY 2006.................................................................................D-3 Cambridge Systematics, Inc. iii Arizona Rural Transit Needs Study List of Figures Figure ES.1 Population Characteristics of Rural Arizona, Year 2005 ................ ES-3 Figure ES.2 Population in Rural Arizona by County, 2005 to 2015 ................... ES-4 Figure ES.3 Projected Transit Demand in Rural Arizona, Year 2016................. ES-5 Figure ES.4 Total Annual Rural Transit Ridership Estimates by Scenario, 2007 to 2016 ........................................................................................... ES-6 Figure ES.5 Total Annual Rural Transit Cost Estimates by Scenario, 2007 to 2016 .................................................................................................... ES-7 Figure ES.6 Per Capita State-Level Transit Funding, Year 2005......................... ES-9 Figure ES.7 Top Candidates for New or Expanded Local and Tribal Section 5311 Program Service........................................................... ES-13 Figure ES.8 Top Candidates for New Intercity Section 5311 Program Service.................................................................................................. ES-14 Figure 3.1 Rural Transit Study Areas......................................................................3-2 Figure 3.2 Rural Cities and Tribal Reservations Over 5,000 in Population With and Without