Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University
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Forecasting China's Future," the National Interest (Fall 1986)
FORECASTING CHINA’S FUTURE: EXPERTS AND UNCERTAINTY Roger Irvine Thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Centre for Asian Studies School of Social Sciences and Humanities University of Adelaide October 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................ iii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................ vi DECLARATION ....................................................................................................... vii ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................ viii SPELLING OF CHINESE NAMES ........................................................................... ix ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................... x 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Challenges and Benefits of Forecasting ........................................................ 1 1.2 China Watchers and Forecasting ................................................................... 3 1.3 Dominance and Collapse ............................................................................... 6 1.4 Experts and Uncertainty ................................................................................ 7 1.5 Overview ...................................................................................................... -
Africa Economic Brief and KOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT
2018 l VOLUME 9 l ISSUE 2 VICE PRESIDENCY FOR ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE Africa Economic Brief AND KOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT Industrialization: Lessons from China for North Africa Justin Yifu Lin1 ow can developing economies escape from the trap of distortions to develop advanced industries, resulting in Hmiddle- or low-income status in which the majority has misallocation of resources, rent-seeking and corruption, and been for decades? Drawing lessons from the experiences of causing economic stagnation, frequent crises and a widening China, this piece argues that an economically successful of the gap with high-income countries. country must have the market as its foundation with, on top of that, the state playing an active, facilitating role. After the 1970s, “neoliberalism” became the new mainstream set of ideas in development economics, emphasizing It is a dream for every developing country to become a government failures. This view advocated the use of “shock modern, industrialized, high-income country. Yet among therapy” to implement the “Washington consensus” reform nearly 200 developing economies after the Second World privatizing, “marketizing”, stabilizing and liberalizing so as to War, so far only two the Republic of Korea and Taiwan, China eliminate government interventions and distortions, and to have grown from low- to high-income. China may become establish a well-functioning market system similar to that in the third by 2025. developed countries. Among the 101 middle-income economies in 1960, only 13 For socialist and other developing countries that adopted this became high income by 2008. Of the 13, eight were transition strategy, the results were economic collapse, European countries, which had a smaller income gap at the stagnation and frequent crises. -
New Structural Economics: the Third Generation of Development Economics
Global Development Policy Center GEGI WORKING PAPER 027 • 1/2019 GLOBAL ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE INITIATIVE New Structural Economics: The Third Generation of Development Economics JUSTIN YIFU LIN ABSTRACT Development economics is a new sub-discipline in modern economics. The first generation of development economics is structuralism, focusing on market failures in developing countries and advising their governments to adopt import-substitution strategy for developing modern advanced industries. The second generation of development economics is neoliberalism, focusing on government failures in developing countries and advising their governments to implement Washington Consensus reform with a shock therapy. Most developing countries followed the above two generations of Justin Yifu Lin is a professor at development economics and failed to achieve industrialization and modernization. This article the Institute of New Structural introduces the third generation of development economics, called new structural economics, which Economics at Peking University. advises governments in developing countries to play a facilitating role in the development of industries He is the Chief Economist in a market economy according to the country’s comparative advantages. The paper also discusses how and Senior Vice President of the government may use industrial policies to play this facilitating role. Development Economics at The World Bank Group. After the Second World War, many former colonies and semi-colonies in the world obtained political independence from colonial powers and started their industrialization and modernization drives with the goal of quickly catching up the developed countries. In response to the need, development economics emerged as a new sub-discipline of modern economics, aiming to advise the developing countries about how to achieve their modernization dreams. -
Learning to Catch up in a Globalized World
OUP CORRECTED PROOF – FINAL, 29/5/2019, SPi 8 China Learning to Catch up in a Globalized World Justin Yifu Lin and Jun Zhang 8.1 Introduction Despite a recent slowdown, over the past forty years the Chinese economy has maintained an average annual growth rate of 9.5 per cent. No country or region has ever sustained such a long period of growth at such a high rate. Its per capita GDP increased from US$156 in 1978 to about US$8,640 in 2017. China has a population of nearly 1.4 billion, suggesting that in 2017 its total GDP stood at US$12 trillion, second only to that of the United States, and China’s share of the world economy has increased from 1.8 per cent in 1978 to around 15 per cent in 2017. Over the same period China’s foreign trade has maintained an average annual growth rate of 14.5 per cent in dollar terms. Again, no country has ever been able to move so successfully and so quickly from a closed economy to an open economy. In 2010, China’s exports overtook those of Germany and it became the world’s largest exporter. More than 95 per cent of its exports were manufactured products, making China a new manufacturing powerhouse after the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan, and Germany, which had succes- sively claimed the title since the Industrial Revolution in the eighteenth century. More importantly, the technological complexity of China’s manufactured exports has also increased steadily, narrowing the gap with developed economies dramat- ically. -
China (Includes Tibet, Hong Kong, and Macau) 2018 Human Rights Report
CHINA (INCLUDES TIBET, HONG KONG, AND MACAU) 2018 HUMAN RIGHTS REPORT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is an authoritarian state in which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is the paramount authority. CCP members hold almost all top government and security apparatus positions. Ultimate authority rests with the CCP Central Committee’s 25-member Political Bureau (Politburo) and its seven-member Standing Committee. Xi Jinping continued to hold the three most powerful positions as CCP general secretary, state president, and chairman of the Central Military Commission. Civilian authorities maintained control of security forces. During the year the government significantly intensified its campaign of mass detention of members of Muslim minority groups in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang). Authorities were reported to have arbitrarily detained 800,000 to possibly more than two million Uighurs, ethnic Kazakhs, and other Muslims in internment camps designed to erase religious and ethnic identities. Government officials claimed the camps were needed to combat terrorism, separatism, and extremism. International media, human rights organizations, and former detainees reported security officials in the camps abused, tortured, and killed some detainees. Human rights issues included arbitrary or unlawful killings by the government; forced disappearances by the government; torture by the government; arbitrary detention by the government; harsh and life-threatening prison and detention conditions; political prisoners; -
The Neolithic Ofsouthern China-Origin, Development, and Dispersal
The Neolithic ofSouthern China-Origin, Development, and Dispersal ZHANG CHI AND HSIAO-CHUN HUNG INTRODUCTION SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE YELLOW RIVER and Mainland Southeast Asia, southern China1 lies centrally within eastern Asia. This geographical area can be divided into three geomorphological terrains: the middle and lower Yangtze allu vial plain, the Lingnan (southern Nanling Mountains)-Fujian region,2 and the Yungui Plateau3 (Fig. 1). During the past 30 years, abundant archaeological dis coveries have stimulated a rethinking of the role ofsouthern China in the prehis tory of China and Southeast Asia. This article aims to outline briefly the Neolithic cultural developments in the middle and lower Yangtze alluvial plain, to discuss cultural influences over adjacent regions and, most importantly, to examine the issue of southward population dispersal during this time period. First, we give an overview of some significant prehistoric discoveries in south ern China. With the discovery of Hemudu in the mid-1970s as the divide, the history of archaeology in this region can be divided into two phases. The first phase (c. 1920s-1970s) involved extensive discovery, when archaeologists un earthed Pleistocene human remains at Yuanmou, Ziyang, Liujiang, Maba, and Changyang, and Palaeolithic industries in many caves. The major Neolithic cul tures, including Daxi, Qujialing, Shijiahe, Majiabang, Songze, Liangzhu, and Beiyinyangying in the middle and lower Yangtze, and several shell midden sites in Lingnan, were also discovered in this phase. During the systematic research phase (1970s to the present), ongoing major ex cavation at many sites contributed significantly to our understanding of prehis toric southern China. Additional early human remains at Wushan, Jianshi, Yun xian, Nanjing, and Hexian were recovered together with Palaeolithic assemblages from Yuanmou, the Baise basin, Jianshi Longgu cave, Hanzhong, the Li and Yuan valleys, Dadong and Jigongshan. -
Development Challenges in a Postcrisis World
University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Business Economics and Public Policy Papers Wharton Faculty Research 2011 Development Challenges in a Postcrisis World Claudia Sepúlveda Ann Harrison University of Pennsylvania Justin Yifu Lin Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/bepp_papers Part of the Business Commons, Economics Commons, and the Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration Commons Recommended Citation Sepúlveda, C., Harrison, A., & Lin, J. Y. (2011). Development Challenges in a Postcrisis World. 1-389. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-8522-7 This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/bepp_papers/74 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Development Challenges in a Postcrisis World Keywords challenges, postcrisis, world bank Disciplines Business | Economics | Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration This conference paper is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/bepp_papers/74 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Development Challenges in a Postcrisis World ANNUAL WORLD BANK CONFERENCE ON DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS Previous titles in this series: ABCDE 2010, Lessons from East Asia and the Global Financial Crisis ABCDE 2009, Global: People, Politics, and Globalization ABCDE 2008, Global: Private Sector and Development ABCDE 2008, Regional: Higher Education and Development ABCDE 2007, Global: Rethinking Infrastructure for -
Curriculum Vitae
CURRICULUM VITAE Justin Yifu Lin Personal: Born: October 15, 1952; Place of Birth: Taiwan; Nationality: PRC; Married; Two children. Main Positions: Professor and Founding Director, China Center for Economic Research, Peking University Professor, Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Address: China Center for Economic Research Peking University Beijing 100871 China 86-10-6275-1475 (Phone) 86-10-6275-1474 (Fax) [email protected] (E-mail). Department of Economics School of Business and Management Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Clear Water Bay, Kowloon Hong Kong 852-2358-7608 (Phone) 852-2358-2084 (Fax) [email protected] (E-mail). Education: Ph.D., Economics, The University of Chicago, June 1986. M.A., Political Economy, Peking University, June 1982. M.B.A., National Chengchi University, June 1978. Honors: Doctor Honoris Causa, the University of Auvergne, 2004 Inaugural Lecture, the Annual Prybyla/Riew Lecture Series, Penn State University, 2004 Goh Keng Swee Lecture on Modern China, East Asian Institute, Singapore, 2003 Best Article Award, Journal of Peking University, 2003 (for “Urbanization Development and Rural Modenization in China,” Journal of Peking University, Vol. 39, No.4, July 2002, pp. 10-5) Ten Best Teacher Award, Peking University, 2003 First Prize, Outstanding Research Publication (2002), Ministry of Education (for my book, Institution, Technology and Agricultural Development in China, II, Beijing: Peking University Press, 2000). First Prize (2002), the Eighth Philosophy and Social Science Award of Peking University for “Fiscal Decentralization and Economic Growth in China, ” published in Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 49, No. 1 (October 2000), pp. 1-20 (with Zhiqiang Liu). -
Just a Scholar: the Memoirs of Zhou Yiliang (1913–2001) Zhou Yiliang in 2001
Just a Scholar: The Memoirs of Zhou Yiliang (1913–2001) Zhou Yiliang in 2001. Private collection. Just a Scholar: The Memoirs of Zhou Yiliang (1913–2001) Translated by Joshua A. Fogel LEIDEN • BOSTON 2014 Cover illustration: Zhou Yiliang, Beijing University. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Zhou, Yiliang, 1913-2001. Just a scholar : the memoirs of Zhou Yiliang (1913-2001) / translated by Joshua A. Fogel. pages cm. Includes index. ISBN 978-90-04-25417-6 (hardback : alk. paper) -- ISBN 978-90-04-26041-2 (e-book) 1. Historians-- China--Biography. I. Fogel, Joshua A., 1950- translator. II. Title. DS734.9.Z468A3 2014 951.05092--dc23 [B] 2013029081 This publication has been typeset in the multilingual “Brill” typeface. With over 5,100 characters covering Latin, IPA, Greek, and Cyrillic, this typeface is especially suitable for use in the humanities. For more information, please see www.brill.nl/brill-typeface. ISBN 978-90-04-25417-6 (hardback) ISBN 978-90-04-26041-2 (e-book) Copyright 2014 by Koninklijke Brill NV, Leiden, The Netherlands. Koninklijke Brill NV incorporates the imprints Brill, Global Oriental, Hotei Publishing, IDC Publishers and Martinus Nijhoff Publishers. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, translated, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior written permission from the publisher. Authorization to photocopy items for internal or personal use is granted by Koninklijke Brill NV provided that the appropriate fees are paid directly to The Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Suite 910, Danvers, MA 01923, USA. -
白重恩BAI Chong-En
白重恩 清华大学经济管理学院院长 BAI Chong-En Dean of Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management 白重恩是清华大学经济管理学院院长、弗里曼经济学讲席教授,清华大学中国财政税收研究所所 长。美国哈佛大学经济学博士。研究领域为制度经济学、经济增长和发展、公共经济学、金融、公司 治理以及中国经济。 目前担任全国政协委员、“十四五”国家发展规划专家委员会专家委员、中国经济 50 人论坛学术 委员、亚洲开发银行研究院顾问委员会委员、国务院学位委员会第七届学科评议组成员、中国民主建 国会中央常委,经济委员会主任、国家税务总局特邀税收评论员、中国金融 40 人论坛成员、中国信息 百人会成员以及国际经济学会执行委员会成员。曾挂任北京市国有资产经营有限责任公司副总裁。曾 任中国人民银行货币政策委员会成员、布鲁金斯学会 non-resident 高级研究员。 主要研究项目:国家自然科学基金委中英 NSFC-ESRC 项目《中国的国际金融一体化--对金融发 展和稳定的影响》,负责人。2017 - 2019。农业部办公厅《三农问题中的财政体制和政府激励机制》, 负责人。2016.1 - 2016.12。中国金融四十人论坛课题《中国经济增长潜力研究》,负责人。2015.1 - 2016.5。世界银行:由世界银行行长任命的“世界银行营商环境报告的独立评审专家组 ”2012 - 2013。 Professor BAI Chong-En is Dean of the School of Economics and Management, Mansfield Freeman Chair Professor of Tsinghua University. He is also the director of the National Institute for Fiscal Studies of Tsinghua University. He earned his Ph.D. degrees in Mathematics and Economics from UCSD and Harvard University, respectively. His research interests include Institutional Economics, Economic Growth and Development, Public Economics, Finance, Corporate Governance and Chinese Economy. Professor BAI is a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, expert member of the Committee of experts on National Development Planning in the 14th five- year Plan, Academic member of the Chinese Economists 50 Forum, Member of the Advisory Board of the Asian Development Bank Research Institute, the 7th Discipline Evaluation Group of the State Council Academic Degrees Committee, member of Central Committee and director of economic committee, China National Democratic Construction Association, specially invited tax commentator of State Administration Taxation, member of China Finance 40 Forum, China Info100, and the executive committee of International Economic Association. He served as Adjunct Vice-President of Beijing State-Owned Assets Management Co., the monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China and was a non-resident Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution. -
Appendix: the Re-Establishment of Sociology Discipline in China
Appendix: The Re-establishment of Sociology Discipline in China He Zhaofa As is well known, radical changes are taking place in academic acti vities in China. Our government pays a great deal of attention not only to the development of studies of technology and the natural sciences, but it also puts much stress on the social sciences. In the past five years many departments of the social sciences have been rebuilt. To take my university of Zhongshan as an example, we have re-established the following departments: law; anthropology; sociology; administration and management; and library sciences. We are also preparing to establish a department of political science in 1985. Sociology as an independent academic discipline had been sus pended for about thirty years before it was re-habilitated in 1979. Since then we have reconstructed the discipline through two channels. (1) THE CHINESE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES Under these auspices were founded the National Association of Socio logy in China and the Institute of Sociology (in Beijing). Both are led by Dr Fei Xiaotong, the well-known scholar in the fields of sociology and anthropology. The Association and the Institute conducted two short-term summer classes for researchers and teachers of sociology in 1980 and 1981. These courses which were in the nature of short-term training classes covered basic concepts, basic methods of social research, technological development and social change, community analysis, applied sociology and so on. Courses of this kind are not intended for university students, rather they are directed towards cadres and staff in order to help train them to apply sociology for the promotion of China's four modernisations. -
Xiaobo Zhang
XIAOBO ZHANG SUMMARY Xiaobo Zhang has published more than 80 articles in peer-reviewed English journals, including Journal of Political Economy, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, European Economic Review, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Journal of Economic Perspective, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Public Economics, and Proceedings of National Academy of Science. His main research areas focus on agricultural economics, development economics, and Chinese economy. Xiaobo’s publications are widely cited. As of April 2020, Google Scholar lists 14,044 citations of publications authored or co-authored by Xiaobo. The h-index and i10-index for Xiaobo compiled by Google Scholar is 51 and 144 He received Sun Yefang Prize for Economics Research in China (the most prestigious award in the field of economics in China) in 2015 and Zhang Peigang Development Economics Outstanding Achievement Award (the highest award in the field of development economics) in 2016. He has rich field experience in developing countries, such as leading Guizhou Household Panel Survey (four waves on more than 800 households), China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) survey (four waves on about 15,000 households), Enterprise Survey for Innovation and Entrepreneurship in China (ESIEC), and firm surveys in Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Myanmar, and village surveys in China and India. EDUCATION Ph.D. in Applied Economics and Management, Cornell University January 2000 MS in Applied Economics and Management, Cornell