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Estimation of the Peak Outflow from Natural Lakes Within the Neva River

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Estimation of the Peak Outflow from Natural Lakes Within the Neva River 7th Study Conference on Baltex 13 June, 2013, Borgholm, Island of Öland, Sweden Estimation of the peak outflow from natural lakes within the Neva River basin Sergey Zhuravlev, State Hydrological Institute and Saint-Petersburg State University Saint-Petersburg, Russia Background Swamps (13%) (S. Bergström et al, 2001) 2 Lakes & water storages (12%) Urban areas (1,5%) Objectives • to analyze the process of the lake flood control • to assess the general outline of the lake stage- outflow relationships • to offer an approach & tools for modeling the lake flood control process • to simulate lake’s inflow & outflow in the case of lacking hydrological data • to estimate the peak outflow changing due to the lake flood control The lake flood control: an example riv. Verebushka the riv. Tikhomandritsa 4 The process of the lake flood control 5 Lake distribution within the Neva river basin 5 10 Lake Ladoga S=17600 km2 2 10 2 1 10 S, km 0 10 -1 10 -2 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 Number of lakes 22636 The total account of lakes – about 22500* The total water surface area – 39505 sq.km* *Russian part, the source of the data – topographic maps, 1:200 000 6 Study area The riv. Neva basin F=281000 sq. km 7 The lake routing algorithm dW Rating curve = Q − Q − E + P + (Q − Q ) dt in out grw. in grw. out 170 dW Qin., t + Qin., t+∆t Qout., t + Qout., t+∆t 169.8 = − − E(S,t) + P(S,t) dt 2 2 H − H 169.6 = n t 0 (Glushkov’s equation) Qout, t a Stage, m 169.4 H + H S = f (W ) = f ( t t+∆t ); 2 169.2 169 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Q, m3/s Assumptions: = Qgrw. in Qgrw. out no ice phenomena, wind tide & seiches 8 The rating curve approximation 9 Hydrograph Model • distributed model of runoff formation processes • looking for the simplest solutions Modeling periods 1971-1991 1991-2011 • Input data: - precipitation - air temperature - air deficit (Vinogradov, Semenova, Vinogradova, 2011) • Output results: river runoff, soil and snowpack characteristics, full water balance www.hydrograph-model.ru 10 Modeling & verification simulated Model verification observed Outflow hydrographs Water level fluctuations of the lakes the riv. Tikhomandritsa Lake Korobozha water levels n n i i 2 i i 2 ∑(Qsim − Qobs ) ∑(H sim − H obs ) i=1 i=1 EfQ =1− EfH =1− n EfQ = 0,79 n Ef = 0,73 i 2 i 2 H ∑(Qobs − Qobs ) ∑(H obs − H obs ) i=1 i=1 11 More subbasin lakes, less Ef Inflow & outflow results Inflow Outflow Lake Navolok the riv. Tihomandritsa S=15 sq.km 12 Parameter generalization Hmax − Hmin n = f (S) a = f (F) H − H0 = = f (F / S) 2 1.5 10 120 a n 100 1 , s, 80 1 min 0.1 60 - H 0.01 max 0.5 40 H 0.001 20 S, sq km. F/S 0 F, sq.km 0 1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 0.0001 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 10 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 13 NSEfin = 0.39→0.76 Large systems – the riv. Neva the inflow to lake Ladoga 5000 the discharge of riv. Neva 4000 /s 3 3000 Q, m 2000 Open channel 1000 Ice phenomena Freeze-up 0 01.75 03.75 05.75 07.75 09.75 11.75 01.76 simulated observed simulated observed Single rating curve Rating curves for the certain periods Mean peak reducing – 2.2 (5500 2500 cub.m/s) Mean lagging – 50 days [from 20 to 76] 14 Summary • the present work characterizes the changes of the peak flow due to the lake flood control process • the influence of the lakes on the river runoff within the Neva basin is extremely strong. Lake Ladoga halves the peak inflow and “slows” it for 48 days on an average • it’s suggested to generalize RC parameters for the lakes & basins with the lack of the data • the accuracy of the approach is inversely as the lake’s water surface area & the rate of the dynamical & ice phenomena 15 Thank you for your attention 16 .
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