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Macron and Le Pen Parties Both Fared Poorly in Second Round Economic and Financial Analysis 28 June 2021 Macron and Le Pen parties both fared poorly in Article second round of French regional elections The incumbent right-wing and socialist regional presidents were largely re- elected in the second round despite a historic abstention rate. President Macron's party and far-right National Rally (RN) fared poorly in the second round and did not win any regions. Next year's presidential elections could still hold surprises Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen could face each other in a tight election in 2022 Content - The recomposition of the political landscape in question - Victory of the "old world" tarnished by a historic abstention - The 2022 presidential election is not written in advance The recomposition of the political landscape in question Four years after the 2017 presidential elections, which had initiated a profound recomposition of the political landscape against the backdrop of the break-up of the old left-right divide to the benefit of Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, this regional election marks a revenge of the "old world". It also marks a halt to this recomposition less than a year before the next presidential election. Victory of the "old world" tarnished by a historic abstention Nothing happened as expected in the French regional elections. France is no exception to this new political norm, in which reality inflicts a new correction on poll predictions. While before the first round the polls had predicted that one or more regions would fall to the National Rally (RN) and that the candidates of the République en Marche (LRM) would play the role of kingmakers, this was not the case. On the contrary, all incumbent regional presidents were re-elected in the second round of elections. Thus, the map of France remains coloured pink and blue on the evening of Sunday 27 June, identical to that of 15 days ago: seven regions governed by the right and five by the Socialist Party (PS). It could have been an almost total victory for the "old world" if abstention had not reached a record level of 66%, a symbol of mistrust and disinterest. All the contenders for the 2022 presidential election will have to take into account this historic abstention rate, which is probably not going to be repeated during the presidential elections, though Macron and Le Pen will probably have to put some effort in mobilising their supporters. The 2022 presidential election is not written in advance Given the fact that two out of three French people did not go to the polls, it would be perilous to draw a national conclusion from the regional elections. Nevertheless, an atmosphere has been created, which could be favourable to the right. Three heavyweights of the right and potential candidates in 2022 won a large victory in their region: Xavier Bertrand, Laurent Wauquiez and Valérie Pécresse. The next step for the party will be to designate a single candidate to hope to upset the announced duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the presidential election. As a reminder, the two finalists of 2017 are still widely favoured for the 2022 election, with 24% of voting intentions. A gap of 6 points separates them from Xavier Bertrand who appears to be the best placed outsider on the right for the moment. The left also does not seem to be dead since it maintains its territorial areas after the regional elections, even though alliance lists of the PS with the ecologists (EELV), and sometimes with the France Insoumise (LFI), did not manage to create a surprise. So the regional elections chapter is now over. The presidential election one can now be written. Samuel Abettan Junior Economist +32 478 66 40 14 [email protected] Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by the Economic and Financial Analysis Division of ING Bank N.V. ("ING") solely for information purposes without regard to any particular user's investment objectives, financial situation, or means. ING forms part of ING Group (being for this purpose ING Group NV and its subsidiary and affiliated companies). The information in the publication is not an investment recommendation and it is not investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Reasonable care has been taken to ensure that this publication is not untrue or misleading when published, but ING does not represent that it is accurate or complete. ING does not accept any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the author(s), as of the date of the publication and are subject to change without notice. The distribution of this publication may be restricted by law or regulation in different jurisdictions and persons into whose possession this publication comes should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. 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