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Determinants of Interest Rate Spreads in Uganda's Commercial Banking Sector

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Determinants of Interest Rate Spreads in Uganda's Commercial Banking Sector DETERMINANTS OF INTEREST RATE SPREADS IN UGANDA’S COMMERCIAL BANKING SECTOR: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS BY ROBERT NABENDE A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF A MASTER OF ARTS DEGREE IN ECONOMICS OF MAKERERE UNIVERSITY DECEMBER, 2018 DECLARATION i CERTIFICATION ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I acknowledge African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) for organising and sponsoring my studies at the Joint Facility for Electives (JFE) at Kenya School of Monetary Studies in which I took Econometrics and Monetary Economics, and these enriched the empirical techniques applied in this study. I express my sincere appreciation to my supervisors: Dr. Ibrahim Mukisa and Assoc. Prof. Edward Bbaale for their positive and encouraging approach towards this research. Their supportive attitude and quick responses to any questions concerning this study have been invaluable. I also thank the faculty at the School of Economics, Makerere University for their valuable advice during the course of my undergraduate and graduate studies. Am specifically grateful to Assoc. Prof. Bruno Lule Yawe, Dr. Joweria Teera, Dr. Ibrahim Mukisa, Dr. John Bosco Nnyanzi, Dr. Francis Wasswa, and Dr. Asumani Guloba for introducing me to Advanced Economics at graduate level. I also acknowledge my JEF lecturers: Prof. Nathan Okurut of University of Botswana, Dr. Dianah Ngui Muchai of Kenyatta University, Dr. Jean Marcelin Bosson Brou of University Felix Houphouet Boigny, and Dr. Tom Mwebaze of Makerere University. Support and encouragement from my fellow graduate students at Makerere University: Abel Egesa, Brian Musumba, Francis Muhoozi, Innocent Okoth, Millicent Aswata, Perez Nicholas Ochanda, Ronald Mugobera, and William Ssemyalo is acknowledged. The 2016 JFE colleagues from University of Botswana, University of Gold Coast, Ghana, University of Malawi, University of Mauritius, and University of Zimbabwe are acknowledged. To my family members, am grateful for your support and encouragement. Above all I thank God for good health and wisdom which made the studies possible. Notwithstanding the above acknowledgements, I am solely responsible for errors and/or omissions contained in this dissertation. iii DEDICATION To my: Grandfathers, James Nalwooli (RIP) and Clement Nakhosi (RIP); Grandmothers, Deborah Khabuya Nalwooli and Pulukelia Namakoye Nakhosi; Father, Naphtali Wakharere; Mother, Margret Namono Wakharere; Siblings; Cousins and friends. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION....................................................................................................................... i CERTIFICATION ................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................. iii DEDICATION......................................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................... viii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................ ix ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................ x ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................. xi CHAPTER ONE ...................................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. Background to the study .............................................................................................. 1 1.2. Statement of the problem ............................................................................................ 4 1.3. Objectives of the study ................................................................................................ 5 1.3.1. Overall objective of the study .............................................................................. 5 1.3.2. Specific objectives of the study ............................................................................ 5 1.4. Hypotheses of the study .............................................................................................. 6 1.5. Scope of the study ....................................................................................................... 6 1.6. Significance of the study ............................................................................................. 7 CHAPTER TWO ..................................................................................................................... 8 OVERVIEW OF UGANDA’S BANKING SYSTEM ........................................................... 8 2.0. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 8 2.1. Pre-financial reform policies ....................................................................................... 8 2.1.1. Interest rate policy ............................................................................................... 9 2.1.2. Establishment of state-owned commercial banks, and administered lending programmes ...................................................................................................................... 10 2.1.3. Private sector banks ........................................................................................... 12 2.1.4. Prudential banking sector regulation and supervision ...................................... 13 2.1.5. Summary ............................................................................................................ 14 2.2. Financial sector reforms ............................................................................................ 14 2.2.1. Financial liberalisation ..................................................................................... 15 2.2.2. Restructuring of state-owned banks ................................................................... 16 2.2.3. Strengthening of prudential regulation and supervision ................................... 17 2.2.4. Summary ............................................................................................................ 18 2.3. Structure of Uganda’s banking sector ....................................................................... 18 v 2.3.1. Financial development ....................................................................................... 19 2.3.2. Efficiency............................................................................................................ 22 2.3.3. Competition and concentration.......................................................................... 24 2.3.4. Financial soundness indicators ......................................................................... 25 2.4. Summary to the chapter............................................................................................. 28 CHAPTER THREE ............................................................................................................... 29 LITERATURE REVIEW ..................................................................................................... 29 3.0. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 29 3.1. Conceptualisation of interest rate spreads ................................................................. 29 3.2. Theoretical literature on interest rate spreads ........................................................... 30 3.3. Empirical literature .................................................................................................... 33 3.4. Summary of the literature and research gap .............................................................. 42 CHAPTER FOUR .................................................................................................................. 43 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................ 43 4.0. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 43 4.1. Theoretical framework .............................................................................................. 43 4.2. Empirical model specification ................................................................................... 49 4.3. Data sources .............................................................................................................. 55 4.4. Estimation techniques ............................................................................................... 56 4.5. Panel unit root tests ................................................................................................... 57 CHAPTER FIVE ................................................................................................................... 58 PRESENTATION, INTERPRETATION, AND DISCUSSION OF RESULTS .............. 58 5.0. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 58 5.1. Data characteristics ..................................................................................................
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