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1 Degradation in Mongolia's Gobi Desert: Not As Straight Forward As Degradation in Mongolia’s Gobi Desert: not as straight forward as assumed J. Addison A,B . M. Friedel A. C. Brown C. J. Davies A. S. Waldron A. A c /o CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, PO Box 2111, Alice Springs, NT, 0871, Australia B Corresponding author: [email protected] C School of Agriculture and Food Science, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Qld, 4067, Australia Short title: How applicable are degradation assumptions to Mongolia’s Gobi Desert? Abstract Assumptions about the levels and causes of rangeland degradation in Mongolia have become embedded amongst a range of stakeholders. This paper explores the applicability of five such widely-held assumptions about rangeland degradation in Mongolia to the more specific case of the rangelands of the Gobi Desert. These assumptions are: i) there are too many animals; ii) goats have proportionally increased and this is causing desertification; iii) rainfall is declining; iv) there is less pasture now; and v) Mongolian rangelands are degraded. Biophysical and quantitative social data from the Dundgobi and Omnogobi desert-steppe areas suggest not all of these assumptions are supported mechanistically all of the time, and that the information upon which these assumptions are based is more complex than is commonly recognised. Caution in designing policy and programmes based on current understandings of rangeland condition is necessary. 1 Additional keywords : rangeland, Gobi Desert, livestock, goats, climate Introduction Rangeland theory and the understanding of causal mechanisms behind rangeland dynamics have changed significantly over the last century. The largely static ‘climax community’ of Clementsian succession (Clements 1916) has been replaced by ideas of more dynamic multiple stable and non-equilibrium states (Holling 1973; Noy-Meir 1975), thresholds (Friedel 1991), and states and transitions models (Westoby et al . 1989). Dynamic socio-political and cultural values have additionally informed, and been informed by, how we understand rangelands. Much of the literature around how changing value systems can intersect with changing rangeland science to facilitate a ‘misreading of the landscape’ has come from colonial and post-colonial Africa (e.g. Ellis and Swift 1988; Behnke 1992; Fairhead and Leach 1996). Any landscape that has become rapidly exposed to externally-derived systems of thought appears vulnerable to a ‘misreading’ however. In the context of arid areas of Asia, Robinson et al. (2003) compared Soviet and western methods of ‘reading’ the rangelands, and discussed their relative applicability to the Kazakh rangelands. They highlighted the vagaries of understanding rangeland condition when past and present assessments are underpinned by false assumptions imported from elsewhere, methodologically inconsistent or do not include field-based assessment. Yang et al. (2005) also criticised the use of significantly different methodologies in the assessments of desertification in China, some of which relied upon satellite imagery or questionnaires of perceived degradation levels with no ground-truthing, or did not differentiate between climatic ‘deserts’ and ‘areas undergoing desertification.’ These issues compound the difficulties of understanding 2 change in landscapes that are inherently biophysically variable and prone to stochastic disturbances. It is widely assumed by a range of stakeholders – policy-makers, non- government organisations (NGOs), academics and the media – that the rangelands of Mongolia are degraded (e.g. Batjargal 1997; Johnson et al . 2006; Mau and Dash 2007; United Nations Development Programme 2007; Enkh-Amgalan 2008; The World Bank 2009; Hess et al . 2010; Mongolian Society for Rangeland Management 2010; Usukh et al . 2010). An increase in the number of livestock, particularly goats, is commonly cited as a major contributing cause of landscape degradation (e.g. United Nations Development Programme 2007; Bayanmonkh 2007; Index Based Livestock Insurance Project Implementation Unit 2009; Sheehy and Damiran 2009; Whitten, 2009; Hess et al. 2010; Sternberg 2010). A change in rainfall patterns, particularly the decline of rainfall, and subsequent decline in forage productivity is another commonly cited cause (e.g. Bayanmonkh, 2009; Index Based Livestock Insurance Project Implementation Unit 2009; Nakamura 2009). Policy responses and programme designs, such as the draft Pasture Law (United Nations Development Programme 2008; Dorligsuren 2010) and NGO-facilitated pasture user/pastoralist groups (e.g. Schmidt 2006; United Nations Development Programme 2007; Hess et al . 2010; Usukh et al. 2010; The World Bank 2011) have been, or will be, applied across landscapes based on some of these assumptions. Despite the influence of these assumptions on policy design and prescriptions, the status of Mongolia’s rangelands is neither as well documented nor agreed upon as is often believed (Sternberg 2009). A number of organisations have landscape-scale forage production monitoring and forecasting programmes (e.g. Texas A & M University et al . 2011; Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology 2003). Mongolia does 3 not have a nationally recognised rangeland monitoring system, however, although one is currently in development (Mongolian Society for Rangeland Management, personal communication, 2010). This has resulted in conflicting understandings of rangeland condition and condition trend at the national level as assessments have used different scales, indicators and sampling regimes, or have cited figures that are out of context from methods or methodological assumptions. For example, Batsuuri (2009) stated that 90% of the country was affected by desertification and land degradation, 70% of which was medium or severe. Awaadorj and Badrakh (2007) quote Chognii (2001) as stating that 30% of Mongolia’s rangeland area was degraded. Mau and Dash (2007) put this figure at 80%, whilst Bayankhishig (2009) stated that 77.2% was degraded to some extent. Sneath (1998) quotes Sheehy (1995) as stating that only 9% of the country was degraded. The 70% figure that is the most commonly cited (e.g. Sukhtulga, 2009; Dorligsuren, 2010) is also contested (The World Bank 2003). Peer-reviewed, English language literature increasingly foregrounds rainfall patterns as the overriding factor affecting vegetation dynamics at the more local spatial scale of the Mongolian desert steppe region (Lavrenko and Karamysheva 1993; Wesche and Retzer 2005; Wesche et al . 2008; Ronnenberg et al. 2008; Wesche et al . 2010; Sasaki et al. 2009). Empirical research assessing the effect of grazing pressures on vegetation dynamics over a number of seasons increasingly recognises that the current pastoral system may have a low impact on rangeland condition in desert steppe areas (Wesche and Retzer, 2005; Wesche et al ., 2010; Cheng et al., 2011). This raises the question of how robust at a finer spatial scale are the national scale rangeland condition assumptions that have underpinned the creation of policy/programmes. 4 This paper uses a case study to review the applicability of common Mongolian degradation assumptions to the more localised spatial and temporal scales of the Gobi Desert. We examine indicators of rangeland condition as well as pastoralists’ accounts and secondary data to critique, through triangulation where possible, assumptions of degradation and their causal factors. We highlight where there is conflicting evidence or where inappropriate causal assumptions have been applied across landscapes. In doing so, we aim to provide a more nuanced understanding of the processes contributing to biophysical change in the Gobi. Materials and methods Site description: The Gobi Desert The Gobi Desert occupies the basin of Central Asia, including northern parts of the People’s Republic of China and southern aimags (States) in the Republic of Mongolia (Figure 1). Broadly undulating with occasional rocky rises, the Gobi Desert is located on a relatively high plateau. The northern part of the Mongolian Gobi Desert, with its higher annual precipitation, increased vegetation cover and dominance of perennial forbs and grasses, is generally referred to as ‘desert steppe.’ More southern areas are often referred to as ‘true desert’ or ‘hyper-desert,’ with a more rocky subsurface and increased dominance of sub-shrubs (Lavrenko and Karamysheva 1993). The Gobi’s precipitation is relatively low, with the vast majority falling in summer as rain. Annual precipitation over the last 20 years for this paper’s study sites varies from 132mm (Bulgan soum ) to 67.5mm (Sevrei soum ). Precipitation is spatio- temporally variable, and as such is often referred to as being ‘at disequilibrium’ (Ellis and Swift 1988; Wesche and Retzer 2005; Fernandez-Gimenez and Allen-Diaz 2001; Marin 2010). Co-efficients of variation (CVs) for annual precipitation are moderate to 5 high, with minimum and maximum CVs at study sites of 26% (Bulgan soum ) and 49% (Tsogtseggi soum ) over the last 20 years, respectively. Variability increases when precipitation falls as rainfall, with minimum and maximum rainfall CVs of 30% (Bulgan soum ) and 53% (Sevrei soum ), respectively. Temperatures show significant intra-annual variability, with the coldest mean minimum in January (-20˚C) and warmest mean maximum in July (23˚C) (Johnson, Sheehy et al. 2006). The extremely cold, annual periods are predictable. Rarer, seemingly stochastic dzuds (a multifaceted term implying atypical winter conditions, sometimes preceded by a drier than usual summer, limiting pastoral production)
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