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Mongolia's Economic Prospects: Resource-Rich and Landlocked Between Two Giants

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MONGOLIA’S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS RESOURCE-RICH AND LANDLOCKED BETWEEN TWO GIANTS Edited by Matthias Helble, Hal Hill, and Declan Magee JUNE 2020 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK MONGOLIA’S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS RESOURCE-RICH AND LANDLOCKED BETWEEN TWO GIANTS Edited by Matthias Helble, Hal Hill, and Declan Magee JUNE 2020 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2020 Asian Development Bank 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines Tel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444 www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2020. ISBN 978-92-9262-248-0 (print); 978-92-9262-249-7 (electronic); 978-92-9262-250-3 (ebook) Publication Stock No. SGP200172-2 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/SGP200172-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisions and terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use #openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributed to another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it. ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact [email protected] if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wish to obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to use the ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes: In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars. ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China, “Korea” and “South Korea” as the Republic of Korea, and “Russia” as the Russian Federation. On the cover: clockwise from top left: Sermsang Khushig Khundii Solar Project in Mongolia (photo by Ariel Javellana); genetic engineering laboratory, School of Art and Science at the National University Mongolia (photo by Eric Sales); Sainshand School No.2 (photo by Kevin Hamdorf); producing Gobi cashmere (photo by Tsogtbaatar Khishigdorj); farmer using climate- smart agriculture methods (photo by Eric Sales); coal mine in Dundgovi aimag, southern central Mongolia (photo by Matthias Helble). iii Contents Tables, Figures, and Boxes v Foreword x Acknowledgments xiii Author Profiles xv Abbreviations xx 1. The Economy: An Overview 1 1.1 Economic Overview 3 1.2 Economic Performance 12 1.3 Summary and Policy Recommendations 34 2. Macroeconomic Management 42 2.1 Macroeconomic Management Challenges 43 2.2 Fiscal Policy and the Framework to Govern Resource Revenue 49 2.3 Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy 54 2.4 Financial Development in Support of Growth and Diversification 60 2.5 Policy Recommendations and Conclusions 69 3. Managing the Natural Resource Abundance 73 3.1 Mining Overview 75 3.2 Fiscal Resource Revenue 83 3.3 Revenue Management 100 3.4 Foreign Direct Investment and Job Creation 103 3.5 Policy Recommendations and Conclusions 109 4. Economic Diversification Beyond Mining 112 4.1 Diversifying the Economy and Expanding Exports 116 4.2 Export Bottlenecks: Company Perspectives 129 4.3 Policy Recommendations and Conclusions 144 iv Contents 5. International Dimensions of National Development: 147 Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and Labor Migration 5.1 Policy Context: From Plan to Market 148 5.2 Trade Orientation and Balance of Payments Position 164 5.3 Export Performance 169 5.4 Foreign Direct Investment 185 5.5 Labor Migration and Remittances 188 5.6 Policy Recommendations and Conclusions 190 6. Infrastructure and Connectivity 194 6.1 The Legacy 195 6.2 Transport 196 6.3 Power Sector 202 6.4 Communications and Internet Services 203 6.5 Hard and Soft Infrastructure 204 6.6 Infrastructure Planning and Financing 205 6.7 Policy Recommendations and Conclusions 209 7. The Business Climate: Institutions and Governance 211 7.1 Political Institutions, Risks, and Governance 214 7.2 Policy Recommendations and Conclusions 233 8. Living Standards, Labor Market, and Social Development 237 8.1 Living Standards 239 8.2 Labor Market 250 8.3 Social Development 264 8.4 Policy Recommendations and Conclusions 273 References 278 v Tables, Figures, and Boxes Tables 1.1 Gross Domestic Product per Capita in Mongolia,Kazakhstan, 15 Kyrgyz Republic, and Lao People’s Democratic Republic, 2017 1.2 Governance Indicators of Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, 16 and Lao People’s Democratic Republic, 2000 and 2017 1.3 Microeconomic Indicators for Mongolia, Kazakhstan, 17 Kyrgyz Republic, and Lao People’s Democratic Republic, 2018 1.4 Balance of Payments, 1995, 2010, and 2017 29 1.5 Social and Economic Indicators Mongolia, Kazakhstan, 31 Kyrgyz Republic, and Lao People’s Democratic Republic, 1990 1.6 Social and Economic Indicators Mongolia, Kazakhstan, 32 Kyrgyz Republic, and Lao People’s Democratic Republic, 2017 2.1 Macroprudential Measures in Resource-Rich Countries, 2017 66 3.1 Estimated Mineral Reserves and Resources 76 and Their Global Rankings 3.2 Mineral Deposits Registered by Type, 2017 and 2018 77 3.3 Mineral Commodities Production, 2010–2017 81 3.4 The 16 Strategically Important Mineral Deposits 82 3.5 Additional Royalty Rates for Mineral Products 85 3.6 Number of Extractive Industry Revenue Flows to the Government 94 3.7 Tax Payments of Extractive Companies, 2017 94 3.8 Top Tax Paying Companies, 2017 95 3.9 Relationship between Government Take and 97 the Commodity Price Index 3.10 Top 10 Extractive Company Tax Payers and 98 Government Take, 2017 3.11 Government Price and Commodity Price Index in Botswana, 99 Indonesia, and the Lao People’s Democratic Republic 3.12 Employment By Sector, 2009 and 2018 107 4.1 Output and Employment Structure, 2000-2017 123 4.2 Export Share by PRODY Classification 127 4.3 Top 20 Exports as a Share of Total Exports 129 4.4 Revealed Comparative Advantage by Priority Export Sector 130 5.1 Import Tariffs, 2017 151 5.2 Export Tax Revenue as a Percentage of Nonmineral Exports 152 vi Tables, Figures, and Boxes 5.3 General Agreement on Trade in Services Commitments 152 5.4 Distance to Port and Transport Costs of 161 Landlocked Developing Countries 5.5 Trading Across Borders in the Doing Business Index, 2019 163 5.6 Overseas Development Assistance Key Indicators, 1999–2017 167 5.7 External Indebtedness and International Reserves, 1992–2016 168 5.8 Composition of Mineral Exports 170 5.9 Average Annual Growth Rates of Total Merchandise Exports, 170 and Mineral and Other Merchandise Exports, 1995–2017 5.10 Composition of Nonmineral Exports 171 5.11 Composition of Total Merchandise Exports, Exports to 176 the People’s Republic of China, and the Share of the People’s Republic of China in Total Exports, 2013–2017 5.12 Destination of Exports, 1996–1997, 2006–2007, 2016–2017 177 5.13 Top Mongolian Exports to Japan, 2018 184 5.14 Japan, United States, and European Union Tariff Rates for 185 Mongolia’s Top Export Products to Japan 5.15 Foreign Direct Investment, 1990–2017 186 5.16 Sectoral Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment 188 and Employment, 1990–2010 5.17 Mongolians Living Abroad by Host Economy 189 6.1 Road Network, 1950–2018 199 7.1 Mining Companies Business Climate Perception, 2008–2017 219 7.2 Mongolian Prime Ministers and Their Governments Since 1992 220 7.3 Survey Results of Government Agencies Most Affected 231 by Corruption 8.1 Poverty Indicators by National Poverty Line, Selected Years 242 1995–2018 8.2 Gini Index, Selected Years 1995–2016 245 8.3 Social Assistance Expenditure 248 8.4 Social Security Transfers, 2012 and 2016 249 8.5 Labor Market Indicators, Selected Years 1995–2017 250 8.6 Labor Market Gender Gap by Occupation, 2017 255 8.7 Labor Demand by Economic Sector, 2015, 2017, and 2019 259 8.8 Obstacles to Employment Cited by Employers and Graduates 260 8.9 Population Ages 18 and Over with Highest Educational Attainment, 265 2010 and 2016 8.10 Health Indicators of Sustainable Development Goals, 269 Selected Years 1990–2017 8.11 Leading Causes of Death 270 8.12 Number of Health Institutions 271 Tables, Figures, and Boxes vii Figures 1.1 Gross Domestic Product Growth and Real GDP per Capita, 13 1991–2017 1.2 Sources of Growth Domestic Product Growth, 1971–2015 14 1.3 Growth of Agriculture, Industry, and Services Sectors, 1991–2017 18 1.4 Sector Shares of Gross Domestic Product, 1991–2017 20 1.5 Investment and Savings, 1991–2017 21 1.6 Inflation and Exchange Rates, 1991–2017 22 1.7 Effective Exchange Rates, 2000–2018 23 1.8 Fiscal and Current Account Balances, 1991–2017
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