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Statistical Analysis to Investigate the Possibleimpact of Climate Change International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering (IJRTE) ISSN: 2277-3878, Volume-3 Issue-6, January 2015 Statistical Analysis to Investigate the Possible Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in Letaba River of South Africa P. K. Sinha, Rajesh Kumar Abstract- Global warming and changing climate is a major Climate change has brought about severe and possible concern in the water availability. Letaba River in South Africa is permanent alterations to geological, biological and facing reduction in water availability and this paper is an attempt ecological systems all over the world. Douben (2009: 78) to understand impact of climate change on reservoirs of Letaba River in South Africa. The Letaba River System falls within the asserts that there is new and stronger evidence that most of Limpopo basin. This is subdivided into three sub-systems namely: the warning observed over the last 50 years is attributed to Groot Letaba, Klein Letaba and lower Letaba. More than 20 human activities. In South Africa water availability is never dams are located in the Groot Letaba catchment. Most of the taken for granted. The South African National Strategy dams are having less water than there used to be earlier. The Document on weather patterns (2010: 16) indicates that the general perception for this change is related with the Climate sub-continental warning will be accompanied by increasing change induced low precipitation and increased temperature in the river catchment. The historic climate and long term incidence of both droughts and floods with prolonged dry hydrology records are used for quantifying relationship between spells followed by intense storms. Floods are reported climate change and the amount of water in the Dam. The main everywhere in the world and in Africa. For example, Global long term hydrology parameters available in the department of Humanitarian Forum Reported (2009: 6) indicates water affairs on prominent rainfall stations of Letaba River prevalence of floods in countries like Kenya, Uganda, catchment are temperature, stream flow and rainfall and their Ghana, Mozambique and South Africa. In South Africa trend is the indicator of climate change in the Letaba River. A statistical analysis has been done to study the impact of climate floods are most prevalent in the Kwazulu Natal, Eastern change on the Letaba catchment. Cape, Limpopo and the Mpumalanga Provinces. Status of Recent Research at National level and Keywords: Letaba River, Climate change, Water availability, International level. Reservoirs South Africa has launched its new National Climate Change I. INTRODUCTION Response Policy; the policy gives a roadmap for responding to the urgency of Climate change as it pushes towards a Climate: “This is the long-term average weather conditions green economy. Accordingly, various studies on the effects (usually taken over a period of more than 30 years as of climate change have been carried out using different defined by the world meteorological organization, WMO) of numeric models for the South African Catchments, namely a region including typical weather patterns such as the WRYM (Water Resources Yield Model), MIKE Models etc. frequency and intensity of storms, cold spells and heat The hosting of the COP 17 climate change negotiations in waves.” Climate Variability: “Variations in the mean state Durban on the 28 November, 2011 announced that is a and other statistics (e.g. standard deviations or the measurable reality. It further stated that if the impacts are occurrence of extreme events) of the climate on all temporal not dealt at the early stage, then will have disastrous social and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. and economical consequences. The effects of drought on Variability may be due to natural external processes outside hydrology may not be noticed for several months (IPCC the earth system, or to natural or anthropogenic internal 2001). Drought is felt when the area experience low rainfall, forcing.” Climate change from the IPCC point of view refers the area will experience drought causing serious to “Any change in climate over time, whether due to natural hydrological inequity that negatively affect agricultural variability or as a result of human activity.” This usage production putting countries economy in danger and water differs from that in the United Nations Framework supply shortage leading to negative impact on the people‟s Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which defines health (DWA,2004). Drought is divided into four groups: climate change as: „A change of climate which is attributed Meteorological drought, Agricultural drought, Socio- directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the economic and Hydrological drought. The study done by composition of the global atmosphere and which is in DWA (2004) stated that Letaba Catchment is water stressed addition to natural climate variability observed over with results that during drought (hydrological), almost all comparable time periods.‟ flow is abstracted from the river and very little is left to meet the required amount in farming activities (Agricultural drought) and are hit hard with severe local economic consequence (Socio-economic drought). Status of Recent Research at International level Manuscript Received on January 2015. P. K. Sinha, Department of Civil Engineering, University of South Africa, A Research Scholar, Sharda University, India. Dr. Rajesh Kumar, School of Engineering & Technology, Sharda University, India. Published By: Retrieval Number: F1318013615 /2015©BEIESP 41 Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering & Sciences Publication Statistical Analysis to Investigate the Possible Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in Letaba River of South Africa Various studies on the effect of climate change on such as crop damage and water supply shortage. Droughts hydrology have been carried out internationally (by occur when there is insufficient rainfall in an area and water Katambra & Ndiritu 2010) and have used different models drops to a lower level leading to negative impacts on people to examine the effects of climate change on hydrological and environment. The effects of drought on hydrology may regime. There are uncertainties at all level in the not be noticed for several months (IPCC 2001). Drought is methodology of climate change effect assessment and there felt when the area experiences low rainfall, the area will are two methods which attempt to account for these experience drought causing serious hydrological inequity uncertainties; namely scenario analysis and risk that negatively affect agriculture production putting analysis.Scenario analysis comprises a set of technique that countries economy in danger and water supply shortage anticipates and prepare for the impact of uncertain future leading to negative impact on the people‟s health events. The Risk analysis deals with uncertainties in terms (DWA,2004). of the risk of impact (Katambra & Ndiritu 2010) Effects of climate change on hydrology: II. STUDY OBJECTIVE Effects of climate change are already being felt across the It is required to assess in the Letaba River Catchment that world. Its impacts are negatively affecting the availability of the long prevailing drought is due to impact of climate water as well as the quantity and quality of water that is change or due to periodic cycle. SAWS (South Africa available. Rising of temperature will lead to an Weather Services) has indicated that in South Africa, wet intensification of the hydrological cycle, resulting in dryer cycles of seven years followed by dry cycles of seven years dry season (drought) and wetter rainy season (floods), and are seen since last fifty years. The status of storage Dams (as subsequently heightened risks of more extreme events. The shown in the table below) of the Letaba River Catchment hydrological cycle that operates across the climate system is has indicated that water level in the Dams are most of the being intensified due to apparent changes of global years are decreasing. temperature. Effects on Climate Change on drought: Drought is defined as a phenomenon that exists when rainfall has been significantly below normal, serious hydrologic inequity that negatively affects land resources productive system (IPCC, 2001). For example, problem WMA (Water Dams in Groot FSC Studies (1st July) % of FSC (full supply capacity) Management Letaba Catchment (million m3) 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Areas) Luvuvhu and Ebenezer 60 45 43 42 46 59 46 39 37 Letaba Dap nande 1.9 60 61 62 64 60 58 43 40 Thabina 2.8 70 59 60 58 60 57 51 52 Tzaneen 156.5 75 72 70 74 65 76 66 65 2009 2010 2011 2012 40 39 46 45 43 40 43 47 51 50 51 50 64 59 55 53 The government of South Africa has indicated a drought 13670 km2 (DWA, 2006). The catchment is located between prone area of Letaba River catchment (DWA: River report latitude 22º56‟00” S and 23º58‟00” S longitude 30º2‟00” E 1994). The biggest Dams in the catchment (Tzaneen, and 31º35‟00” E (Fig below). The Letaba River Catchment Ebenezer and Middle Letaba) failed to meet the required forms part of the Luvuvhu/ Letaba Water Management Area water demand (for agriculture and Domestic). of South Africa. The Topography of Letaba River Catchment varies from a zone of high mountains in the west III. THE MAIN OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY of the mountain through low mountains and foothills to the To determine the trend in rainfall, temperature and water low lying plains in the east part of the mountain. The below availability in the Letaba River catchment and their figure shows the main River of Letaba River catchment and correlations. the area of study will be from point 1 to 9. The listed catchments belong to Letaba River. IV. STUDY AREA The areal extent of this study is the Letaba River Catchment of Limpopo province. Location and Topography: The Letaba River Catchment is located in the north-eastern part of South Africa and covers an area of approximately Published By: Retrieval Number: F1318013615 /2015©BEIESP 42 Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering & Sciences Publication International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering (IJRTE) ISSN: 2277-3878, Volume-3 Issue-6, January 2015 not get the required amount of water.
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