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Security in the Black Sea Region: Continuity and Change

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Security in the Black Sea Region: Continuity and Change SECURITY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION: CONTINUITY AND CHANGE A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY ASLIHAN ANLAR IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS DECEMBER 2013 Approval of the Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Meliha Altunışık Director I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Bağcı Head of Department This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Assoc. Prof. Faruk Yalvaç Prof. Dr. Mustafa Türkeş Co-Supervisor Supervisor Examining Committee Members Doç. Dr. Sevilay Kahraman (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Mustafa Türkeş (METU, IR) Prof. Dr. Erel Tellal (Ankara University, IR) Doç. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever (METU, IR) Doç. Dr. Pınar Akçalı (METU, ADM) 2 PLAGIARISM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work. Name, Last Name: Aslıhan Anlar Signature : iii ABSTRACT SECURITY IN THE BLACK SEA REGION: CONTINUITY AND CHANGE Anlar, Aslıhan Ph.D., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Mustafa Türkeş Co-Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Faruk Yalvaç December 2013, 521 pages This thesis analyzes how a relative security in the Black Sea Region has been established and sustained since the end of the WWII by adapting international structure understanding of Neorealist theory to regional structure. In the Region, there has been a Soviet/Russian sphere of influence and special relations between the USSR/RF and its subordinates shape both the distribution of capabilities and the ordering principle of the regional structure. In the Black Sea Region, the distribution of capabilities has not been unipolar since the beginning of the Cold War due to the presence of Turkey, which has been the US ally country. The ordering principle has been anarchical hierarchy within anarchy because of the co-existence of subordinate states of the different great powers. This regional structure has been effective in enhancing or terminating regional security because it affected the policies of the regional and the non-regional actors that could destroy or maintain regional security. In this thesis, from 1948 (beginning of the Cold War) to 2012; in main three periods, security situation of the Region, regional structure, sphere of influences in the Region, security situation of international system and relations between great powers are defined and then, relationship between regional structure and regional security is laid down. In all periods, how regional structure affects policies of regional and related non-regional actors and how this web of relations and position affects regional security is shown. iv Keywords: Black Sea Region, regional security, regional structure, anarchical hierarchy, sphere of influence v ÖZ KARADENİZ BÖLGESİ’NDE GÜVENLİK DEVAMLILIK VE DEĞİŞİM Anlar, Aslıhan Doktora, Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Mustafa Türkeş Ortak Tez Yöneticisi: Doç. Dr. Faruk Yalvaç Aralık 2013, 521 sayfa Karadeniz Bölgesi II. Dünya Şavaşı yılları dışında göreli olarak güvenli bir bölge olagelmiştir. Bu tez Bölge’de güvenliğin nasıl sağlandığı ve sürdürülebildiğini araştırmaktadır. Bu inceleme sırasında Neorealist teorinin uluslararası yapı kuramı bölgesel yapıya uyarlanarak kullanılmıştır. Bölge’de Soğuk Savaş’ın başlangıcından bugüne Sovyet/Rus etki alanı bulunmakta ve kendisi ile kendisine bağlı devletler arasındaki özel ilişki bölgesel yapının hem güçler dağılımını hem de düzenleyici ilkesini şekillendirmektedir. Bölge’de güçler dağılımı Soğuk Savaş’tan bu yana ABD yanlısı Türkiye’nin varlığı nedeni ile hiç bir zaman tek kutuplu olmamış ancak büyük bir güç farklılığı bulunmuştur. Düzenleyici ilke ise farklı büyük güçlerin etki alanındaki ülkelerin aynı bölgede olması sebebi ile anarşi içinde anarşik hiyerarşi olarak tanımlanmıştır. Bu bölgesel yapı güvenliği arttıracak ya da yok edecek kapasiteye sahip bölgesel ya da bölge dışı ülkelerin politikalarında etkili olmuştur. Bu tezde Soğuk Savaş’ın başlangıcından, 1948’den başlayarak 2012’ye kadar olan zaman zarfında, üç ana dönemde, Bölge’deki güvenlik durumu, bölgesel yapı, Bölge’deki etki alanları, uluslararası sistemin güvenlik durumu ve büyük güçler arasındaki ilişkiler tanımlanmış ve bölgesel güvenlik ile bölgesel yapı arasındaki bağ vi ortaya konmuştur. Tüm dönemlerde bölgesel yapının bölgesel ve ilgili bölge dışı aktörlerin politikalarını nasıl etkilediği ve onların ilişkiler ağının da bölgesel güvenliği nasıl şekillendirdiği gösterilmiştir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Karadeniz Bölgesi, bölgesel güvenlik, bölgesel yapı, anarşik hiyerarşi, etki alanı vii DEDICATION To Emre Zafer Anlar, my son viii Bu tez Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Araştırma Kurumu (TÜBİTAK) tarafından 2214/A Yurtdışı Doktora Sırası Araştırma Burs Programı kapsamında desteklenmiştir. This thesis was supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK) as part of 2214/A International Research Fellowship Programme for PhD Students. ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, I wish to convey my sincere thanks and gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Dr. Mustafa Türkeş for his guidance, advice, criticism and insight throughout this study. Studying with him was a real intellectual challenge for me but I have always felt and would like to express that without his academic assistance and intellectual support, writing this thesis would not have been possible. A special gratitude also goes to Assoc. Prof. Faruk Yalvaç, my co-advisor, owing to the fact that he helped me to shape my thesis and provided me with the invaluable knowledge and guidance about international relations theory. I would like to thank my thesis examining committee members, Assoc. Prof. Sevilay Kahraman, Prof. Dr. Erel Tellal, Assoc. Prof. Oktay F. Tanrısever and Assoc. Prof. Pınar Akçalı for their valuable comments and remarks on the thesis. I am also indebted to the Middle East Technical University Department of International Relations, Eurasian Studies and the Center for Black Sea and Central Asia, which shaped my academic development and provided me with different opportunities and all my professors, who provided me with invaluable knowledge and support. I would like to expand my thanks to Prof. Dr. Ayşe Ayata for her academic and intellectual support to me for four years we studied together. She was the one who also encouraged me to study on this subject and supported guidance and helped me on my field research in the Russian Federation. I am also indebted to Prof. Robert Jervis and Harriman Institute Russian, Eurasian and East European Studies, Columbia University for not only giving a chance to me to be a visiting scholar but also providing me a wonderful academic environment for a year. I also would like to thank Assoc. Prof. Dorian Warren for accepting me as a special student in his course and providing valuable guidance concerning methodology of my thesis. x My research activity in New York would not be possible without scholarship which was provided by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey and METU Faculty Development Program-ÖYP. I am also indebted to Çağatay Yüce, Kürşat Ataç and Yakup Türk, dear friends of my husband, for being guarantors to my surety bonds and enabling me to take the scholarships. I should also thank the Turkish Ambassador to Moscow, Aydın Sezgin for his interest in my visit and sharing his valuable insights with me. Special thanks go to our dear friend Yavuz Torbalıoğlu for his support he provided me and my advisor in Moscow, Russia during my field research. My dear friend Reyhan Zengin and my friends and prospective colleagues in the Kocaeli University, Yasemin Aydın and Öznur Türkmen, deserve thanks for their moral support and encouragement. A special thank goes to Berna Süer for both her moral and intellectual support and valuable comments and critics on my thesis and insights about how to write a thesis. I should admit that I have learnt a lot from her. Special thanks go to my dear office-mates Özlem Kaplan, Esra Doğruer, Tolgahan Akdan, Burak Erdinç, İlhan Sağsen and Pınar Arıkan for bearing me during this process and to my old and current colleagues, especially Ahu Şenses, Gülşen Aydın, Gülriz Şen and Cemre Jade Erciyes in the Department of International Relations and the Center for Black Sea and Central Asia at METU for all the support they provided me and to my friends, Figen Uzar and Caner Özdemir, two research assistants in the Graduate School of Social Science for all their help and answering my endless questions patiently. My family deserves special thanks for their faith in me and their support during the years of my study. I am heavily indebted to my beloved mother and father, Gülsen and Mikdat Doğanlar, my mother-in-law Nadire Anlar and my sister and brother, Neslihan and Oğuzhan Doğanlar for all the support they provided me. My father deserves special thanks because he was the one who encouraged me to be an academician and he has always been an excellent model for me in how to be a valuable scientist. In particular, my spouse Uğur Anlar deserves special
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